John Smoltz's HOF speech on specialization

       
       
we would all like our kids to be top D1 players.  I am certainly not banking on that.  And if my son plays D3 - any level - I will be there watching him enjoy himself.

Don't forget NAIA.    

I know two kids off of my son's team high school team that started their freshman year at a NAIA baseball school.  

 It is certainly true that very few draft picks come out of D3 each year,  Still, I think you are both underestimating  how good what you call the "really good" but not great players who play at the top of  D3 are and maybe overestimating just  a tad the number of D1 players who live up to your standard of being "really great"   -- at least if by really great you mean players who get drafted. Though a lot more D1 players than D3 players get drafted,  you know it's also the case that FAR  from the majority of D1 players get drafted.  In 2013,for example,  just over 500 D1 players were drafted (roughly  60% were juniors and the other 40% were seniors).  There are just over 10,000 D1 players.  Not sure how many are draft eligible at any one time.  But let's say roughly half.  That's 1 in 10 of the draft eligible players getting drafted.   So by your measure, 90% of D1 players are not great either, right?  A significant thing about D1 is that talent is clearly not evenly distributed throughout D1.  UCLA for example had 8 guys drafted this year,I think,  but Butler had none.  If fact, Butler has had fewer guys drafted over time than Trinity University has.  Sure, there's a lot of distance between Butler and UCLA.  But that's my point in a way.   Probably Butler is closer to Trinity University than it is to UCLA in the level of baseball played there, I would guess.  Not sure, but I would  guess (though not be willing to place a bet on the proposition)  that by far the majority of the D1 draft picks come from, say,  the top 25% of D1 schools.

 

 

My statement was not intended to hurt anyone's feelings.  Just recognizing (as has been pointed out on this site before) that any player who really wants to continue their baseball career in college probably has an opportunity to do so somewhere.  That 94% thing is misleading. That's all.  And yes I do have a high bar for the word 'great'.  And yes I am sure there are a lot of D1 players who also don't meet that definition.  However if we take the D1 guys who quit after freshman year out of the equation I think you will find that a lot more than 1 of 10 get drafted.  How many juniors and seniors do you think are left on D1 teams?  It is not an even distribution among the four classes.  It is a much greater accomplishment to play D1 ball.  I will certainly not be ashamed if my son plays D3 and I think that is how my words are being misinterpreted.   That somehow I am looking down my nose at D3.  If some day my son plays for Whitewater or Stevens Point I will be very excited for him.  I will be his #1 fan just like if he accomplished the goal of going to his dream school.  Next year I am not coaching so some baseball season time will clear up.  Between my sons schedule and my own there is very little time to go to college games.  We saw one small college game last year and carved out time for a few D1 games.  But I promise you I will make my best effort to go see some high levwl D3 play next season.  I am sure that will be a lot of fun.

Sorry for the late response, school started today, lots of stuff to do!

 

To answer your question PGStaff, yes MANY children under the age of 14 "specialize" in one sport, and especially in the Atlanta Area.  I think the word specialize is too specific though, I know in my kids case he picked up a baseball at age 6 and by age 9 he was on a year round team because that is what he enjoyed, and what he continues to enjoy.  I have made it clear on multiple occasions that I would be happy to take him to football, basketball, soccer...and buy whatever, but he LOVES baseball.  He might play a pick up game in the neighborhood of football or soccer, but he's not interested in getting on a team.

 

FWIW, we didn't allow our LHP son to play year round ball until sophomore yr in HS. He thought we were being overly cautious/insert nasty-slang-term here. We knew his physique/velocity was not 'projectable' D1 level and, fortunately, we, the parents, didn't have to say one thing b/c experience in Atlanta as rising junior eventually made it clear. (Whew!) That said, he had serious looks by our local high D2 school. He will be playing high D3 next year (assuming a good fall work-out). Though not a brilliant student, he received a LOT of merit aid (the best kind there is!). I think it worked out beautifully. He didn't flame out in middle school. He didn't flame out in high school. And he gets a chance to play ball in college.

 

Why didn't we let him play year round? My better half knows Andrews and when our kid was 11-ish was told the stats about year-rounders. Yes, there are always outliers but the chances of injury skyrocket with year-round play. Also, re specialization: my player and his buddies didn't do multiple high school team sports but do a LOT of physical activity: wake boarding, snowboarding, scuba, ultimate frisbee, etc. They just came back from their 4th 5+hr day hike in our local mtns. 

 

The small, small, SMALL percentage of players going on to play high-level D1ball (and further) are, in my mind, the outliers. The bulk of our kids are regular kids with a cool chance to play a fun sport in college. Our job as parents is to remember that. 

Okay this is what I don't get!  You admit your kid isn't D1 material.  You admit the D1 guys are the outliers that can handle year round ball.  Yet, based on the advice of Dr. Andrews you wouldn't allow a 11 year old...a 12...a 13 year old to play baseball, which he loved, with his buddies year round...all to protect his arm which you knew wasn't D1 material.

 

Okay, to me this says you robbed your kid of the doing what he loves on the off chance he would hurt himself....I'd like to refer you back to the wrapped in a bubble comment by 2020dad.

it's true that many things cut down the number of upperclassmen on D1 rosters -- the draft being one of them. Some of the power schools seem to lose a significant chunk of their junior class each year to the draft.  Then there are injuries, on and off the field failure, and burn-out.  So you're right that it probably isn't right to think of 1/2 of D1 rosters as consisting of draft eligible juniors and seniors.  But still, even if you take account of attrition, I would bet it's still true that the VAST majority of D1 players don't get drafted. 

 

Here's a somewhat random sample -- trying to pick a range of schools -- and how many of their draft eligible players got drafted in 2015. 

 

• Of the 21 draft eligible players at the University of Notre Dame this year exactly 1 got drafted. 
• Of the 20 draft eligible players at Ohio State 4 got drafted
• Of the 17 draft eligible players at Cal State Long Beach 2 got drafted.
• Of the  9 draft eligible players at Vanderbilt,  all 9 got drafted.  (wow) 
• Of the 13 draft eligible players at Umass Amherst, 0 got drafted. 

 

That's  5 schools from different parts of the country, with 80 total draft eligible players, of whom 16 got drafted -- over half of them from a single power house school.  If that pattern generalizes over the roughly 300 D1 schools that means on the order of 20% will get drafted.   Of course, as you yourself point out, the attrition along the way is not insignificant.  So even if you land a D1 spot, you have to run the gauntlet before becoming draft eligible. 

 

Caco I hope they are talking about actually playing competitve games year round.  And pitching competitively year round.  But it is confusing because even in your climate do you know anyone who actually does this?  But as far as being involved in a 12 month a year program - part games, part practice, part strength and fitness - I don't see that as an issue.  I get the words of caution.  Nobody knows for sure what causes one kid to get injured and the other to not.  So caution is great.  But when it gets to statements like 'parents need to be parents' and 'our job as parents is' now I take exception.  I would never dream of telling someone else how to parent their children.  Its like that aunt or uncle who scolds their niece or nephew and talks behind the back of their brother/sister about what poor parents they are.  Everybody has a different value system.  We need to respect everyone's parenting without calling them wrong.  Seems like every specialization debate I wind up in this argument.  And my kid doesn't specialize.  But if he walked up to me tomorrow and said "dad I want to stop playing basketball and just focus on baseball" what am I supposed to say?  "No son I can't allow you to do that because it would bring me heavy criticism on HSBBW"???  Ok sorry, a little sarcastic there but really can't people just make their own choices without being horrible parents?

If your son wanted to specialize in baseball only then just tell him to specialize for six to seven months. If my son decided to focus on one sport there would definitely be at least a four month downtime

       
       
Remember one thing though...  its like the odds of rolling a three on a dice.  Its 6 t o 1 of course.  But if you roll it twice its 3 to 1.  Not a math teacher and I am sure in statistics and probability it is much more complicated than that.  But remember those draft eligible juniors have another shot as seniors!  So now that 20% becomes closer to 40%!  That's getting pretty large.  In fact I think the 1 in 5 is pretty large.  Go to baseball cube and look up 2010 rosters.  The smoke has cleared there.  And see how many kids eventually got drafted.  Now you will have to do a little work filtering out those who quit after their freshman or sophomore season but even if you leave them in it might be in that 20 or 30% range.  That's still pretty impressive.  Now.if we had the means and will power to some how sort it to guys who played...  like starters and pitchers who threw significant innings I bet that number would be astonishing.  Fact of the matter is if you are fortunate enough to be a D1 starter your chances of being drafted are pretty darn good.

       
       
Keep in mind part of this time is strength and fitness only.  but a baseball specific program.  Of course he usually hits in the cage some while he is there.  We do take at least three months a year with little or no throwing.  But that is our way not the only way.  Why would you need down time?  Burnout?  Most of these guys in our program...  I can not describe for you how in to baseball they are.  A sheer love of the game.  And I witness no burnout that I am aware of.  If burnout is a concern for your kid then give him the down time.  If my son says he needs a break from baseball then he will get it.  He drives the bus.  But when he wants to go hit or something we jump in the car and go to the facility.

 Uh, this  sampling includes both Juniors and Seniors.  20% of ALL draft eligible players -- including both juniors and seniors -- got drafted at these  five schools.  So your reasoning doesn't really apply.   Plus you do know, don't you, that seniors tend to go a lot lower in the draft and have a lot less leverage?

"  Fact of the matter is if you are fortunate enough to be a D1 starter your chances of being drafted are pretty darn good."

 

Only if you play in a top 75-100 of the 300 D1 programs.  You can do the math and find information on the internet. The vast majority of D1 drafted players come from top 100 programs.

I mightily apologize b/c I think my last comment was sorta misinterpreted to imply 'bad parents'. Not at all!! What I mean is that as parents, our job is definitely to make sure they know all about those wonderful odds! And play them according to the hand you are dealt. In our house, we don't second guess ourselves about whether by limiting his playing time we decreased his odds of getting to the D1 level or decreased his amount of fun 'cuz we sure had ourselves a bucket of fun doing the two summers of traveling to college camps and showcases and such. That was really a TON of fun and worth the money and time, etc. I really only want to chime in on the hazards of too much ball on a developing young man's body. And, well, my kid has a Dad who operates on young men with bad shoulder and arm injuries, so yeah, in our house, we definitely erred on the side of caution. Enjoy the moment everyone! It passes soooooo darn fast...

I think the point about juniors and seniors is that some of the juniors who aren't drafted this year will be drafted next year, so the number of players drafted, overall, from a given set of players (the set consisting of seniors and draft-eligible juniors) is a bit higher.

Overall, though, the point is correct that of course most D1 baseball players are not drafted, and, in addition, most of those who are drafted receive very modest signing bonuses.

I'm just reading this, so maybe it's been addressed. ASMI's studies did not, in any way, deal with "properly thrown" curveballs - only "self reported" curves. That means that even when included curves thrown with what some would consider bad mechanics, the curve ball was found to be a non-factor as compared to fatigue and overuse. Nissen, in fact, showed the curve to provide LESS stress than the fastball. I think it's time we lose the arguments concerning a "correctly thrown" curve versus a "poorly thrown" one. I think what you will find, though, is that the curve (and change, as well) is thrown with lower peak valgus angle (arm layback) than the fastball and this may well be a major contributor to elbow injuries. When trying to pinpoint pronation v. supination as a factor in elbow wear and tear, I believe we may be looking in the wrong place.

I've made this argument before, but think it again relevant. Heredity may be a big factor. Here's my theory (based on very little, admittedly). In the past, pitchers took on heavy workloads. How many of us remember the days when no one even thought about counting pitches and LL and high school teams would trot the same pitcher out inning after inning all season?  It's my belief that in the "good ole days" only those genetically able to withstand such a pounding made it to the Big Leagues. The rest fell to the wayside with injuries and quite pitching early in their careers - long before reaching pro ball. Today, we do a better job of protecting arms. As a result, many pitchers who do not have the genetic makeup of which I speak get farther into their careers than their genetic makeup previously would have allowed. Guys like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson probably could have thrown 200 pitches a game every four or five days for years with little injury risk. Guys like Kerry Wood probably not. By restricting young pitchers, we've greatly increased the pool of guys who can throw 90+ by keeping them healthier for longer periods of time. that's a good thing.

I'm struggling with this one, 2020. Why should we respect everyone's parenting?

 

Obviously you mean within reason, I'm sure -- but still. Think about how many REALLY AWFUL parents there are in this world. We have laws to protect children from bad parents, for goodness' sake!

 

By the same logic, I think it's incumbent on parents who've been there ... to point out where they think parents of ball players are wrong -- based on their experiences. When someone thinks I'm wrong about how I'm handling my son's baseball experience, I want to know it.

 

Then it's up to me to weigh that against my own experiences, beliefs, etc.

I guess I should have been even more precise and actually referenced some of the articles which use the phrase "thrown with proper mechanics."

 

Also, based on the 2014 published article by Yang, et.al. the youth curve ball is not fully exonerated.

 

http://ajs.sagepub.com/content...46514524699.abstract

"Nearly 70% of the sample reported throwing curveballs, which was associated with 1.66 (95% CI = 1.09-2.53) greater odds of experiencing arm pain while throwing."