Kyler Murray

BrownIndian posted:

Does the scout who convinced the A's to pick him in the first round get canned now?

I wouldn't think so.   The A's model is to take risks...and they did.

This is one of those situations where you'd really like to understand Murray's decision criteria and the people giving him advice.  He has said from the start that football is his passion.  The A's knew this.  I can't fault Murray for following his passion.  He;s just not passionate about baseball as much as football.  

I haven't seen him play baseball, but I have seen him play football.  He is sensational college athlete and college football player.   I'd love to see the New England Patriots get him in a few years (at a substantial discount) and put him in the slot.   Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman was a D1 college QB, and he is absolutely a difference maker in the NFL as a slot receiver.   I just don't see him as an NFL QB, but time will tell.

As always, JMO.

I have seen Kyler Murray play both sports (in person) many times, dating back to HS.  He was the best HS athlete I have ever seen.  IMO he is a better football player than he is a baseball player - by a long shot.  He has never focused on baseball and is a very raw talent.  The A's drafted him based on the projection of what they thought he could become - not what he has already done.  Most baseball people I know were shocked that he was a first round pick.  His father was drafted out of HS and played a few years in the Brewers organization before going back to college and playing QB at Texas A&M.  Up until Johnny Manziel the best QB to ever play at A&M was Kevin Murray.  Kevin's passion was always football and he has passed that on to his son. Kevin's brother, Calvin Murray, played 5 years in the big leagues.  They are an incredibly talented family, and a testimony to why scouts and coaches always ask if relatives of a prospect play sports.  Genetics have an awful lot to do with athletic success!

Have to believe he had agents figure his probability of being NFL 1st Rounder (very high), top 10 (probably) or top pick (possible if Kingsbury is to be believed).  Only a terrible showing in the draft lead up could blow that up.  Even then he could rebound with a 2nd workout.

Regardless of actual slot - he'll get paid and never ride a bus except from the airport to the hotel.  NFL rules make it possible for him not to be wiped out but if he runs around sooner or later he will be.  But a 12 year NFL career is not a ridicules thought.  That would be at least one free agent pass and $100mm+ in earnings if he is a competent starting QB.  Of course if he fails Rosen as last years #10 got 17MM with $10MM signing.  So that would be the floor in the NFL for him I would think.  Top pick does about $5MM better.

So the question is RGIII or Russell Wilson?  My guess is better than Griffin but would not bet on him being as good as Wilson.

He could have been another Ricky Henderson type had he stayed with baseball assuming he was going to hit.  Probably 50-60 SB per year vs 90-100 but that kind of guy. 

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

Given the family background and his athleticism I figure he still gets drafted in the top ten rounds but signs for below slot money. The A’s didn’t know he was going to turn into a big NFL prospect with negotiating leverage. Drafting him was very A’s like. Paying him huge money given his baseball production was not. 

Add: He also hit .170 in the Cape League

Murray's senior high school stats:

Avg.    AB    2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB

.286   63     1        2        1      4

Career college stats:

Avg.    AB    2B    3B    HR   RBI    SB

.261   238   13     3       10    53     22

I'm not trying to dump on Murray, but 

RJM posted:

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

Given the family background and his athleticism I figure he still gets drafted in the top ten rounds but signs for below slot money. The A’s didn’t know he was going to turn into a big NFL prospect with negotiating leverage. Drafting him was very A’s like. Paying him huge money given his baseball production was not. 

Add: He also hit .170 in the Cape League

Yeah, but I do believe the A's saw worth in the fact he was slated to be the starting QB or a national championship contender and every time Oklahoma nationally is televised (which is every game) there will be a discussion about the A's.

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Go44dad posted:

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Except, it's certainly looking like they did JUST that.

It was a weird situation. Neither Baseball America nor MLB Pipeline had him in their top 200 draft prospects. BA did throw him up there late and closer to the draft, but not sure based on what. Perhaps rumors that the A's thought highly of him? He has plus speed, but that's the only part of his game that was first round worthy. Either way, I think he's making the right financial decision if he goes with the NFL draft.

roothog66 posted:

Go44dad posted:

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Except, it's certainly looking like they did JUST that.

They get the money back. They had paid out 25% so far. I’ll bet MLB gives them a compensation pick as if he never signed.

RJM posted:

roothog66 posted:

Go44dad posted:

It's conflicting, but the A's don't throw away #1 picks.  Not for "publicity", for sure.

Except, it's certainly looking like they did JUST that.

They get the money back. They had paid out 25% so far. I’ll bet MLB gives them a compensation pick as if he never signed.

If I'm not wrong, it's already been decided that they won't get a compensation pick.

I find that whenever there is a 50/50 chance to get something right,  I get it wrong 70% of the time. But I do believe they will get a compensation pick.

BrownIndian posted:

I find that whenever there is a 50/50 chance to get something right,  I get it wrong 70% of the time. But I do believe they will get a compensation pick.

Welp.

From the NY Times: 

Bob Melvin, the A’s manager, said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Murray would choose baseball, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Yet, realistically, those hopes had been dimming since Murray declared for the N.F.L. draft on Jan. 14. The A’s retain his rights should Murray ever reconsider, but they will get no compensation pick for his defection. They gambled and lost — but baseball lost even bigger.

The A’s won’t be compensated. Murray remains the property of the A’s should he return to baseball. 

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

And when you say “they lose that slot money”....they can’t use that slot money for any other player? 

I couldn't believe the A's drafted him in June and I'm not surprised at the result. He was sitting behind the Heisman Trophy winner and 1st overall pick in Mayfield. Not some average quarterback at a mid major. I figure the A's thought that once he made the majors, they would be getting a superstar for the league minimum. That being said, they knew the risk and it made them look foolish. Was he that much better then any of the next 10 picks that he was worth the risk? 

Even though I hate the A's style (sabermetrics as religion, no bunting, no stealing) I like how they put together a roster. But after not winning in forever, letting all those stars go, and wasting a first rd pick, it has to make you wonder how long they keep the guys at the top around or how much longer they're ok with the current state. 

Dirk posted:

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

And when you say “they lose that slot money”....they can’t use that slot money for any other player? 

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Go44dad posted:

Dirk posted:

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Why is a team penalized for not signing a slot pick?

They're not penalized, they just lose the slot money. Compensation would be for him not signing, which they will not be since he did sign. So if he ever made a return to baseball, the A's still own his rights

And when you say “they lose that slot money”....they can’t use that slot money for any other player? 

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Why is the penalty so severe? 

JCG posted:

BrownIndian posted:

I find that whenever there is a 50/50 chance to get something right,  I get it wrong 70% of the time. But I do believe they will get a compensation pick.

Welp.

From the NY Times: 

Bob Melvin, the A’s manager, said he was “cautiously optimistic” that Murray would choose baseball, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Yet, realistically, those hopes had been dimming since Murray declared for the N.F.L. draft on Jan. 14. The A’s retain his rights should Murray ever reconsider, but they will get no compensation pick for his defection. They gambled and lost — but baseball lost even bigger.

It seems to me that the NY Times is jumping the gun a bit.  Declaring for the draft does not mean he'll choose football.  He'll wait and see how the draft goes, see how much money he's offered, and make a decision.  I'd do the same thing if I were him.

Dirk posted:

Go44dad posted:

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Why is the penalty so severe? 

It isn't really a penalty. It is just what they are allowing the team to spend on said player. If they don't sign him they just don't get to use that money. If they let the teams use the money, they would purposely lowball certain picks (knowing they wouldn't sign) to pay the studs they want more. So if a team has 19 million in slot money to sign their players and a first round pick with a slot value of 5 million doesn't sign, the team now has 14 million to sign the rest of their picks. It is not so much a punishment, more of a if you don't sign, you don't get to use it. 

In this case Murray did sign so the A's don't have to have any to void any of the other guys that were signed. 

PABaseball posted:

Dirk posted:

Go44dad posted:

No, and if they negotiated other contracts over/under the slot, and losing that slot puts them over their total alotted slot, it voids other contracts. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/a...day.com/amp/12857213

Why is the penalty so severe? 

It isn't really a penalty. It is just what they are allowing the team to spend on said player. If they don't sign him they just don't get to use that money. If they let the teams use the money, they would purposely lowball certain picks (knowing they wouldn't sign) to pay the studs they want more. So if a team has 19 million in slot money to sign their players and a first round pick with a slot value of 5 million doesn't sign, the team now has 14 million to sign the rest of their picks. It is not so much a punishment, more of a if you don't sign, you don't get to use it. 

In this case Murray did sign so the A's don't have to have any to void any of the other guys that were signed. 

Now I understand why scouts need to know what you will sign for in the draft. 

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

He hit 10 homers his final college season. Wouldnt call that minimal power. Hit tool was the biggest question.

Dominik85 posted:

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

He hit 10 homers his final college season. Wouldnt call that minimal power. Hit tool was the biggest question.

Yeah it is. 10 HR didn't even rank him in the top 40 outfielders in the NCAA. For a clean up hitter in the NCAA, 10 homers is OK, but minimal power, especially when combined with a sub .300 average and a 28/58 BB/K ratio in only 186 ab's. The only areas where he has shown mlb tools was speed, arm and glove. So, no doubt a draft pick guy - just not a top 10 pick. Usually, you don't use your first pick on projects. You want to see developed skills in almost every area.

roothog66 posted:

Dominik85 posted:

roothog66 posted:

Honestly, I never understood how Murray was drafted this high. I have to believe it was a publicity move by the A's. Murray is a career .290 hitter both in high school and college. He has minimal power and good speed. However, I don't see how he was a first round draft pick. My assessment would be his chances of ever making the bigs was very low, especially compared to the almost guarantee that he will make an NFL roster. 

He hit 10 homers his final college season. Wouldnt call that minimal power. Hit tool was the biggest question.

Yeah it is. 10 HR didn't even rank him in the top 40 outfielders in the NCAA. For a clean up hitter in the NCAA, 10 homers is OK, but minimal power, especially when combined with a sub .300 average and a 28/58 BB/K ratio in only 186 ab's. The only areas where he has shown mlb tools was speed, arm and glove. So, no doubt a draft pick guy - just not a top 10 pick. Usually, you don't use your first pick on projects. You want to see developed skills in almost every area.

Let's compare him to some other drafted outfielders from 2018. We'll start toward the bottom. Boston 40th round pick Zach Watson out of LSU:

.308 / 15 2B's / 7 HR (9 in 2017) / 14 SB - good glove, good speed

Drew Mount - 16th round - Kansas State

.292 / 9HR / 47 rbi / 21 sb - good speed

Then we get to the real picks at OF:

Brock Deatherage - 10th round - NC St.

.307 / 14 HR / 41 rbi / 18sb

Keegan McGovern - 9th round - Georgia

.319 / 14 2B's / 18 HR / 58 rbi

Andrew Moritz - 6th round - UNC-Greensboro

.428 / 7 2B / 10 3B / 6 HR / 61 rbi / 12 sb 

Bren Spillane - 3rd round - Illinois

.389 / 17 2B's / 23 HR / 60 rbi / 16 sb

Trevor Larnach - end of 1st round - Oregon State

.248 / 19 2B's / 19 HR's / 77 rbi 

Kyler Murray 

.296 / 13 2B's / 10 HR's / 47 rbi / 10 sb

Now, by "minimal power" I didn't mean he had no power, just minimal as a category ranking. I also don't think power is generally something you care too much about coming from a LF/CF projected guy. However, I sincerely believe if this guy hadn't been the QB-in-waiting at Oklahoma, not only would he not have been a first round pick, he might not have even been drafted because he wouldn't have been signable outside of a high bonus slot.

Well scouts don't just scout stats. He was very raw but people thought he might be able to tap into more power.

Some even compared him to mookie betts. 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, there are many minor leaguers with "minimal power" who grow into it.

That he was able to hit 10 bombs with minimal baseball experience probably shows that he had more power in the tank.

As wouldn't have taken him there if they thought 10 bombs were his ceiling.

IMHO if you have never seen Murray play in person (and you know what you are looking at) you really aren’t qualified to offer an educated opinion about what kind of baseball player he could become. He has lightning fast hands and feet, which can’t be fully appreciated unless seen live in real time. 

adbono posted:

IMHO if you have never seen Murray play in person (and you know what you are looking at) you really aren’t qualified to offer an educated opinion about what kind of baseball player he could become. He has lightning fast hands and feet, which can’t be fully appreciated unless seen live in real time. 

I have and I do. Note that with the same tools, he wasn't considered by either Baseball America or MLB Pipeline as a top 200 draft prospect, though he popped into BA's top 100 after the A's started showing interest. He has a good arm, plus-plus speed, but was still a big talent gamble you don't normally see taken as college guys in the first few rounds. Also, the circular reasoning of "we know he is good because the A's drafted him, so he must have been a top prospect" is not logically sound.

Dominik85 posted:

Well scouts don't just scout stats. He was very raw but people thought he might be able to tap into more power.

Some even compared him to mookie betts. 

Stats don't always tell the whole story, there are many minor leaguers with "minimal power" who grow into it.

That he was able to hit 10 bombs with minimal baseball experience probably shows that he had more power in the tank.

As wouldn't have taken him there if they thought 10 bombs were his ceiling.

 

Not sure what you mean by "minimal baseball experience." He has the same amount of experience as pretty much everyone else drafted. He's not a Lorenzo Cain story. He's been playing big time tournament baseball since he was about 10.

If he was someone other than the heir apparent at QB for Oklahoma, he certainly had the raw tools to be drafted, but not in the top rounds.

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

roothog66 posted:

Let's compare him to some other drafted outfielders from 2018. We'll start toward the bottom. Boston 40th round pick Zach Watson out of LSU:

.308 / 15 2B's / 7 HR (9 in 2017) / 14 SB - good glove, good speed

Drew Mount - 16th round - Kansas State

.292 / 9HR / 47 rbi / 21 sb - good speed

Then we get to the real picks at OF:

Brock Deatherage - 10th round - NC St.

.307 / 14 HR / 41 rbi / 18sb

Keegan McGovern - 9th round - Georgia

.319 / 14 2B's / 18 HR / 58 rbi

Andrew Moritz - 6th round - UNC-Greensboro

.428 / 7 2B / 10 3B / 6 HR / 61 rbi / 12 sb 

Bren Spillane - 3rd round - Illinois

.389 / 17 2B's / 23 HR / 60 rbi / 16 sb

Trevor Larnach - end of 1st round - Oregon State

.248 / 19 2B's / 19 HR's / 77 rbi 

Kyler Murray 

.296 / 13 2B's / 10 HR's / 47 rbi / 10 sb

Now, by "minimal power" I didn't mean he had no power, just minimal as a category ranking. I also don't think power is generally something you care too much about coming from a LF/CF projected guy. However, I sincerely believe if this guy hadn't been the QB-in-waiting at Oklahoma, not only would he not have been a first round pick, he might not have even been drafted because he wouldn't have been signable outside of a high bonus slot.

FWIW - Juwan Harris played football (DB) and baseball (OF) for Rutgers. Like Murray he is short with plus speed. He put up similar numbers to Murray (.269 / 9 2B / 8HR  / 26 RBI / 23 SB) out of the 2 hole in his draft year. 

He was taken in the 7th round in the same draft as Murray. Which I still thought was a little high. I remember plenty of people being pretty shocked at Murray getting drafted that high without even knowing how high his football ceiling was. 

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Also note that Cabrera was signed after winning a batting title in the highly respected Venezuela Winter League at the age of 16. 

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

2019Dad posted:

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

Yes, it completely misses that point. 

2019Dad posted:

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

High school is a little different. I also picked other guys who were touted for similar tools - speed and arm strength or other tools like shown power. Looking just at first rounders, I haven't seen any other college outfielders in the first round like Murray, though. Bottom line is he's a sure bet to make an NFL roster and probably had far less than average chances at the majors as it applies first round draft picks. I also want to make it clear I don't think the guy is a bum. 

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Don't scout the stat line:

https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/s.../1096059265566101504

You realize this was AFTER he was already in the minors. Of course, it's not all about stats, but don't pretend performance isn't a factor. Especially in the first round, can you name someone else drafted this high showing so little in the area of performance?

Well, if by "so little in the area of performance" you mean that there are plenty of other players at the same level who performed equally well or better, then, sure, it happens all the time. Here's Matt Manning (2016 1st round pick) high school stats:

2015 (junior): 43 IP, 3.09 ERA, 34 H, 24 BB, 51 K

2016 (senior): 40 IP, 1.91 ERA, 17 H, 21 BB, 77 K

Heck, your son put up much, much better stats than that, and so did dozens or hundreds of other high school pitchers.

I have no idea if Murray had first-round talent in baseball. But comparing his stats to other college outfielders just seems to me to miss the point that the scouts are looking for tools. 

High school is a little different. I also picked other guys who were touted for similar tools - speed and arm strength or other tools like shown power. Looking just at first rounders, I haven't seen any other college outfielders in the first round like Murray, though. Bottom line is he's a sure bet to make an NFL roster and probably had far less than average chances at the majors as it applies first round draft picks. I also want to make it clear I don't think the guy is a bum. 

Also don't lose sight of the fact that Manning was sitting 95/96 in high school. I think drafting a high school pitcher on one tool  when that one tool is velocity is far different than projecting on arm strength and foot speed for an outfielder who hasn't shown elite ability with the bat. at the college level. There also seemed to be confusion from dominick as to his baseball experience. He's not some athlete transitioning to baseball. He's been on high level travel teams since he was an 8yo.