MLBPA Announces 5 Round Draft

The NCAA decision will simply be on granting additional eligibility. Their decision should be independent of what the MLB has decided to do.

I am sure the baseball analytics have determined the law of diminishing return on the draft investment and that falls at the 5th round. I think more players will reclassify than expected out of high school.

If you step back, this was a deal between MLB and MLBPA on MLB compensation, service time on how to handle delayed season. The draftees aren’t at the table, nor is MILB. Revenue cut, MLB veterans players first in line. Draftees last in line and an easy cut. 

Some differences from the OP being reported   https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/...-rounds-report-says/

The fear I have is that will stick. Mlb wanted to contract the minors anyway and this could be an ideal starting point for this.

So after a 5 round draft a 20 (instead of 40) round draft wouldn't feel all that bad, wouldn't it?

collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:

The NCAA decision will simply be on granting additional eligibility. Their decision should be independent of what the MLB has decided to do.

I am sure the baseball analytics have determined the law of diminishing return on the draft investment and that falls at the 5th round. I think more players will reclassify than expected out of high school.

If a players already has 4 years of participating in a High School sport, can they get a 5th year.  

Does it make sense to go to a prep school or IMG Academy like vs attending a JUCO?

PABaseball posted:

Rosenthal says agreement reached. Draft will be 5 rounds. Other comments on social media from baseball guys are saying all undrafted players will be able to sign as a FA for max 20k. An 80% cut. 

I see it as a business decision. No revenue coming in - small draft, money goes towards players salaries. MLB gets what they want and can start eliminating lower Milb levels earlier than they wanted. 

Massive problem for college baseball, especially if seniors are granted another year. Bottom line - players won't be leaving. High schoolers will be coming in. 

I would expect IMG to get a lot of applications in the coming days and I would expect Jucos to get a lot of P5 decommits. 

Yikes

College baseball doesn't really have a problem, they either cut a few more guys or just sit a few more on the bench and play the best guys. Having more options doesn't hurt the headcoaches, who are hurt are the players.

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

Rosenthal says agreement reached. Draft will be 5 rounds. Other comments on social media from baseball guys are saying all undrafted players will be able to sign as a FA for max 20k. An 80% cut. 

I see it as a business decision. No revenue coming in - small draft, money goes towards players salaries. MLB gets what they want and can start eliminating lower Milb levels earlier than they wanted. 

Massive problem for college baseball, especially if seniors are granted another year. Bottom line - players won't be leaving. High schoolers will be coming in. 

I would expect IMG to get a lot of applications in the coming days and I would expect Jucos to get a lot of P5 decommits. 

Yikes

College baseball doesn't really have a problem, they either cut a few more guys or just sit a few more on the bench and play the best guys. Having more options doesn't hurt the headcoaches, who are hurt are the players.

The players are always the ones that get hurt. College baseball is going to have a lot of rosters with too many players. Which will result in a lot of unhappy players. If you don’t think that’s going to be a problem you have never coached

adbono posted:

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

Rosenthal says agreement reached. Draft will be 5 rounds. Other comments on social media from baseball guys are saying all undrafted players will be able to sign as a FA for max 20k. An 80% cut. 

I see it as a business decision. No revenue coming in - small draft, money goes towards players salaries. MLB gets what they want and can start eliminating lower Milb levels earlier than they wanted. 

Massive problem for college baseball, especially if seniors are granted another year. Bottom line - players won't be leaving. High schoolers will be coming in. 

I would expect IMG to get a lot of applications in the coming days and I would expect Jucos to get a lot of P5 decommits. 

Yikes

College baseball doesn't really have a problem, they either cut a few more guys or just sit a few more on the bench and play the best guys. Having more options doesn't hurt the headcoaches, who are hurt are the players.

The players are always the ones that get hurt. College baseball is going to have a lot of rosters with too many players. Which will result in a lot of unhappy players. If you don’t think that’s going to be a problem you have never coached

I've been thinking along these lines too.  There's a lot of people that believe that expanding rosters somehow makes this better.  With the traditional 35 roster spots, there are already somewhere between 6-8 (some would say more) players on most teams who are already unhappy with their limited roles.  Expanding rosters, with or without additional scholarship money, just means another 4 or 5 guys on the team that are unhappy.  Either way, the same core players are going to get the most innings, it's just means more guys on the bench.

It would be interesting if the NCAA-D1 P5 schools created a JV circuit, similar to High School.

Commencing with P5 JV Championship

Game schedule (Conference Games and 1 or 2 trips). they can travel with the varsity team.

Note, I understand the issues would be:

Fielding a Roster Size. (especially pitching)

Operating Expenses 

Coaches

Fields - ?

etc.

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

It would be interesting if the NCAA-D1 P5 schools created a JV circuit, similar to High School.

Commencing with P5 JV Championship

Game schedule (Conference Games and 1 or 2 trips). they can travel with the varsity team.

Note, I understand the issues would be:

Fielding a Roster Size. (especially pitching)

Operating Expenses 

Coaches

Fields - ?

etc.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that D1 players (especially at top 50 programs) have zero interest in playing a JV circuit 

adbono posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

It would be interesting if the NCAA-D1 P5 schools created a JV circuit, similar to High School.

Commencing with P5 JV Championship

Game schedule (Conference Games and 1 or 2 trips). they can travel with the varsity team.

Note, I understand the issues would be:

Fielding a Roster Size. (especially pitching)

Operating Expenses 

Coaches

Fields - ?

etc.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that D1 players (especially at top 50 programs) have zero interest in playing a JV circuit 

Understood. 

Then it will be simple:

- stay try to earn a spot (most likely get minimal reps). and/or get redshirted.

Transfer to:

- another 4 year school (non p5) or lower division

- JUCO Program

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

adbono posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

It would be interesting if the NCAA-D1 P5 schools created a JV circuit, similar to High School.

Commencing with P5 JV Championship

Game schedule (Conference Games and 1 or 2 trips). they can travel with the varsity team.

Note, I understand the issues would be:

Fielding a Roster Size. (especially pitching)

Operating Expenses 

Coaches

Fields - ?

etc.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that D1 players (especially at top 50 programs) have zero interest in playing a JV circuit 

Understood. 

Then it will be simple:

- stay try to earn a spot (most likely get minimal reps). and/or get redshirted.

Transfer to:

- another 4 year school (non p5) or lower division

- JUCO Program

 

Many (including me) think that there will be an unprecedented amount of transfers. Which is a tricky proposition as you really don’t know what you are getting into until you are already there. 

adbono posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

adbono posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

It would be interesting if the NCAA-D1 P5 schools created a JV circuit, similar to High School.

Commencing with P5 JV Championship

Game schedule (Conference Games and 1 or 2 trips). they can travel with the varsity team.

Note, I understand the issues would be:

Fielding a Roster Size. (especially pitching)

Operating Expenses 

Coaches

Fields - ?

etc.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that D1 players (especially at top 50 programs) have zero interest in playing a JV circuit 

Understood. 

Then it will be simple:

- stay try to earn a spot (most likely get minimal reps). and/or get redshirted.

Transfer to:

- another 4 year school (non p5) or lower division

- JUCO Program

 

Many (including me) think that there will be an unprecedented amount of transfers. Which is a tricky proposition as you really don’t know what you are getting into until you are already there. 

I would agree.  The issue will be where do you transfer?

Game of musically chair.

Who will have openings?

NLI's already in place.

The talk of moving the NCAA vote to June is just another screw to the incoming freshmen.  No idea what they are walking into.

baseballhs posted:

The talk of moving the NCAA vote to June is just another screw to the incoming freshmen.  No idea what they are walking into.

You would be wise to look into a JuCo option. In your case one that has a track record of developing pitchers. Send me a PM if you want a suggestion 

Where to transfer is exactly the issue. I could easily see a player transferring from one bad situation right into another one 

They are now saying 2021 is also a five round draft. Complete joke.

adbono posted:

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

Rosenthal says agreement reached. Draft will be 5 rounds. Other comments on social media from baseball guys are saying all undrafted players will be able to sign as a FA for max 20k. An 80% cut. 

I see it as a business decision. No revenue coming in - small draft, money goes towards players salaries. MLB gets what they want and can start eliminating lower Milb levels earlier than they wanted. 

Massive problem for college baseball, especially if seniors are granted another year. Bottom line - players won't be leaving. High schoolers will be coming in. 

I would expect IMG to get a lot of applications in the coming days and I would expect Jucos to get a lot of P5 decommits. 

Yikes

College baseball doesn't really have a problem, they either cut a few more guys or just sit a few more on the bench and play the best guys. Having more options doesn't hurt the headcoaches, who are hurt are the players.

The players are always the ones that get hurt. College baseball is going to have a lot of rosters with too many players. Which will result in a lot of unhappy players. If you don’t think that’s going to be a problem you have never coached

Do the teams need to bring all seniors back or is there just the option of bringing them back? I think either way this won't be that much of an issue. Many seniors without a scholarship won't be able to afford a 5th year and coaches will probably make some of the weaker seniors quit by telling them basically there will be almost no playing time for them. Now some might still come back even if it is only 5 at Bats all year but many will probably quit if they are told they are not needed. I think coaches will find a way to use this situation to create the best roster possible.

It will definitely create some unhappy players but I think coaches will be able to resolve that.

I would not be surprised if last year was the last 40 round draft we have seen and in the future it only will be 15-20 rounds.from a player dev perspective it probably makes sense as scouting and development got more effective and needs less quantity now but it will suck for the communities who lose minor league ball. Short term this saves money but for long term fan generation that isn't great especially since mlb is hardly affordable for many families.

adbono posted:

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

Rosenthal says agreement reached. Draft will be 5 rounds. Other comments on social media from baseball guys are saying all undrafted players will be able to sign as a FA for max 20k. An 80% cut. 

I see it as a business decision. No revenue coming in - small draft, money goes towards players salaries. MLB gets what they want and can start eliminating lower Milb levels earlier than they wanted. 

Massive problem for college baseball, especially if seniors are granted another year. Bottom line - players won't be leaving. High schoolers will be coming in. 

I would expect IMG to get a lot of applications in the coming days and I would expect Jucos to get a lot of P5 decommits. 

Yikes

College baseball doesn't really have a problem, they either cut a few more guys or just sit a few more on the bench and play the best guys. Having more options doesn't hurt the headcoaches, who are hurt are the players.

The players are always the ones that get hurt. College baseball is going to have a lot of rosters with too many players. Which will result in a lot of unhappy players. If you don’t think that’s going to be a problem you have never coached

What size roster are there players not playing who aren’t unhappy? 

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

It would be interesting if the NCAA-D1 P5 schools created a JV circuit, similar to High School.

Commencing with P5 JV Championship

Game schedule (Conference Games and 1 or 2 trips). they can travel with the varsity team.

Note, I understand the issues would be:

Fielding a Roster Size. (especially pitching)

Operating Expenses 

Coaches

Fields - ?

etc.

Colleges are already screwed financially outside baseball. Where would the money come from for a JV team? Harvard has a 41 billion dollar endowment and won’t even pay hourly workers. 

9and7dad posted:

adbono posted:

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

Rosenthal says agreement reached. Draft will be 5 rounds. Other comments on social media from baseball guys are saying all undrafted players will be able to sign as a FA for max 20k. An 80% cut. 

I see it as a business decision. No revenue coming in - small draft, money goes towards players salaries. MLB gets what they want and can start eliminating lower Milb levels earlier than they wanted. 

Massive problem for college baseball, especially if seniors are granted another year. Bottom line - players won't be leaving. High schoolers will be coming in. 

I would expect IMG to get a lot of applications in the coming days and I would expect Jucos to get a lot of P5 decommits. 

Yikes

College baseball doesn't really have a problem, they either cut a few more guys or just sit a few more on the bench and play the best guys. Having more options doesn't hurt the headcoaches, who are hurt are the players.

The players are always the ones that get hurt. College baseball is going to have a lot of rosters with too many players. Which will result in a lot of unhappy players. If you don’t think that’s going to be a problem you have never coached

I've been thinking along these lines too.  There's a lot of people that believe that expanding rosters somehow makes this better.  With the traditional 35 roster spots, there are already somewhere between 6-8 (some would say more) players on most teams who are already unhappy with their limited roles.  Expanding rosters, with or without additional scholarship money, just means another 4 or 5 guys on the team that are unhappy.  Either way, the same core players are going to get the most innings, it's just means more guys on the bench.

More pissed off players on the bench who get more pissed off when they don’t travel.

Dominik85 posted:

I would not be surprised if last year was the last 40 round draft we have seen and in the future it only will be 15-20 rounds.from a player dev perspective it probably makes sense as scouting and development got more effective and needs less quantity now but it will suck for the communities who lose minor league ball. Short term this saves money but for long term fan generation that isn't great especially since mlb is hardly affordable for many families.

There’s no reason for the draft to be more than twenty rounds. 94% of American MLBers come from the top twenty rounds. 

I don’t think you are seeing the big picture. Not only do seniors have the option of coming back but with MLB draft reduced to what appears to be 5 rounds many juniors that would have been drafted in a normal year won’t be. Most wont want to sign as a FA for a fraction of what they expected so many of them will be back too.  I’m going to use a specific D1 school as an example.  They have 10 seniors and expected 2 or 3 of them to be drafted. With only 5 rounds maybe none of them get drafted. They also expected one Jr to be drafted. That’s also not likely. They signed 6 HS seniors and are bringing in 5 Juco transfers. They already had 3 redshirts. In the fall they could have 49 guys competing for 35 roster spots. It will take years to clean up that mess and this situation could be typical not isolated. And you think this will be easy for coaches to resolve? Couldn’t disagree more. Has the potential to be a fiasco. 

RJM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

I would not be surprised if last year was the last 40 round draft we have seen and in the future it only will be 15-20 rounds.from a player dev perspective it probably makes sense as scouting and development got more effective and needs less quantity now but it will suck for the communities who lose minor league ball. Short term this saves money but for long term fan generation that isn't great especially since mlb is hardly affordable for many families.

There’s no reason for the draft to be more than twenty rounds. 94% of American MLBers come from the top twenty rounds. 

The reason for rounds 20-40 is to develop the 1-20 rounds and occasionally find a diamond in the rough.  Round 20-40 don’t cost that much in the scheme of things, but 5 rounds???  Ugh. The mess this creates is huge.

adbono posted:

I don’t think you are seeing the big picture. Not only do seniors have the option of coming back but with MLB draft reduced to what appears to be 5 rounds many juniors that would have been drafted in a normal year won’t be. Most wont want to sign as a FA for a fraction of what they expected so many of them will be back too.  I’m going to use a specific D1 school as an example.  They have 10 seniors and expected 2 or 3 of them to be drafted. With only 5 rounds maybe none of them get drafted. They also expected one Jr to be drafted. That’s also not likely. They signed 6 HS seniors and are bringing in 5 Juco transfers. They already had 3 redshirts. In the fall they could have 49 guys competing for 35 roster spots. It will take years to clean up that mess and this situation could be typical not isolated. And you think this will be easy for coaches to resolve? Couldn’t disagree more. Has the potential to be a fiasco. 

You can go ahead and say it...it doesn't just have the potential to be a fiasco....It will be a fiasco...mid-major SRs who have graduated and may have been drafted transferring to P5 schools..P5 SRs who were part-time players looking for that last grasp at mid-major schools...JRs who would have signed coming back..programs who oversigned (most of them) kicking talented freshmen to jucos...NLIs just a piece of paper..D2s with there own eligibility changes in play looking for drop downs...everyone waiting until late July to commit to anything but the best players because they all think they will get their share of the "dudes" the chaos creates..."Dogs and Cats living together, mass hysteria"   - Peter Venkman -

LaunchAngle posted:

adbono posted:

I don’t think you are seeing the big picture. Not only do seniors have the option of coming back but with MLB draft reduced to what appears to be 5 rounds many juniors that would have been drafted in a normal year won’t be. Most wont want to sign as a FA for a fraction of what they expected so many of them will be back too.  I’m going to use a specific D1 school as an example.  They have 10 seniors and expected 2 or 3 of them to be drafted. With only 5 rounds maybe none of them get drafted. They also expected one Jr to be drafted. That’s also not likely. They signed 6 HS seniors and are bringing in 5 Juco transfers. They already had 3 redshirts. In the fall they could have 49 guys competing for 35 roster spots. It will take years to clean up that mess and this situation could be typical not isolated. And you think this will be easy for coaches to resolve? Couldn’t disagree more. Has the potential to be a fiasco. 

You can go ahead and say it...it doesn't just have the potential to be a fiasco....It will be a fiasco...mid-major SRs who have graduated and may have been drafted transferring to P5 schools..P5 SRs who were part-time players looking for that last grasp at mid-major schools...JRs who would have signed coming back..programs who oversigned (most of them) kicking talented freshmen to jucos...NLIs just a piece of paper..D2s with there own eligibility changes in play looking for drop downs...everyone waiting until late July to commit to anything but the best players because they all think they will get their share of the "dudes" the chaos creates..."Dogs and Cats living together, mass hysteria"   - Peter Venkman -

That’s right, I said it! Somebody had to say it!! It had to be said!!! 

baseballhs posted:

RJM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

I would not be surprised if last year was the last 40 round draft we have seen and in the future it only will be 15-20 rounds.from a player dev perspective it probably makes sense as scouting and development got more effective and needs less quantity now but it will suck for the communities who lose minor league ball. Short term this saves money but for long term fan generation that isn't great especially since mlb is hardly affordable for many families.

There’s no reason for the draft to be more than twenty rounds. 94% of American MLBers come from the top twenty rounds. 

The reason for rounds 20-40 is to develop the 1-20 rounds and occasionally find a diamond in the rough.  Round 20-40 don’t cost that much in the scheme of things, but 5 rounds???  Ugh. The mess this creates is huge.

The diamonds in the rough (after 20th round) are typically late blooming pitchers.

Question:  So would the D1 council actually be doing a prudent thing by not giving anyone the year back?  It would still screw the kids that didnt get to compete a full year, but perhaps alleviates some of the "cluster" for the next 4 to 5 years.  It would allow most schools to function close to normal other than the juniors maybe not being drafted as originally projected.  Of course the JUCO kids that were going to be drafted now may end up going to the D1 school they signed with which impacts could be big.  It appears one of the biggest contributing factor is actually MLB only doing 5 (or even 10) rounds that will have major impact on the college game , maybe even more so that whatever the D1 council decides.  Unfortunately, someone is going to get screwed from spring sport cancellations.  The only question is how many and how long will this effect last?

I don't see how they can keep most from getting a year back.  Many pitchers, especially, did not play more than 30% of their season and one of the provisions is natural disaster or calamity to get a hardship redshirt.  This is definitely either a natural disaster or calamity.  But at least half of the players on SEC teams rosters I looked at did not play more than 30%. 

Everyone lost a year.  Everyone.  People are losing jobs, businesses.  None of its fair, but giving everyone an extra year, takes another year away from a lot of freshman and creates a mess for several years.

https://www.baseballamerica.co...rts-incoming-talent/
Very difficult to be a college Jr right now. 

With 5 years of talent shoved into a 4 year funnel the good that can come in this is that the level of play has a chance to increase across all college levels if all adjustments are handled as well as they can be given the short decision window for players and coaches.   There will be more talent at the P5 level than ever, more talent available for mid-majors if NLI releases are given with integrity of purpose, more young talent headed to jucos, and more D1 level talent available for D2s and NAIA to snag where they choose. I hope for everyone who has a player somewhere along this process that your outcome is the best it can possibly be...

RoadRunner posted:

https://www.baseballamerica.co...rts-incoming-talent/
Very difficult to be a college Jr right now. 

Not really, at least not for most. Maybe for those that would sign a contract if they were drafted in rounds 15 -40, and why would you do that based on low signing bonus money for those rounds. Much worse for college seniors, high school seniors and Juco transfers. Elite college juniors are going to get drafted. Granted their odds are better if it’s s 10 round draft instead of 5. 

adbono posted:

RoadRunner posted:

https://www.baseballamerica.co...rts-incoming-talent/
Very difficult to be a college Jr right now. 

Not really, at least not for most. Maybe for those that would sign a contract if they were drafted in rounds 15 -40, and why would you do that based on low signing bonus money for those rounds. Much worse for college seniors, high school seniors and Juco transfers. Elite college juniors are going to get drafted. Granted their odds are better if it’s s 10 round draft instead of 5. 

Did you read the article?

Also, do you think 5 rounds is enough to draft all the Jr that should be drafted?  I disagree mostly with your “at least not for most” comment. 

RoadRunner posted:

adbono posted:

RoadRunner posted:

https://www.baseballamerica.co...rts-incoming-talent/
Very difficult to be a college Jr right now. 

Not really, at least not for most. Maybe for those that would sign a contract if they were drafted in rounds 15 -40, and why would you do that based on low signing bonus money for those rounds. Much worse for college seniors, high school seniors and Juco transfers. Elite college juniors are going to get drafted. Granted their odds are better if it’s s 10 round draft instead of 5. 

Did you read the article?

Also, do you think 5 rounds is enough to draft all the Jr that should be drafted?  I disagree mostly with your “at least not for most” comment. 

I think the reason why they would not go to 10 is because they really have no place to put them unless they expanded their rosters. Without spring training, where do you draw the line in deciding who would remain and who would go on to play on a team.

They essentially would have the same issue as does D1 baseball.

JMO

Yes I read it.  And what I said is correct. MOST college juniors weren’t going to be drafted even in a 40 round draft. So MOST of them aren’t affected too badly. On the other hand MOST incoming freshmen & MOST Juco transfers ARE negatively impacted. And for college seniors it could be good or bad but it will affect MOST of them too. 

adbono posted:

Yes I read it.  And what I said is correct. MOST college juniors weren’t going to be drafted even in a 40 round draft. So MOST of them aren’t affected too badly. On the other hand MOST incoming freshmen & MOST Juco transfers ARE negatively impacted. And for college seniors it could be good or bad but it will affect MOST of them too. 

So I have never really broken down the year in school of players drafted. Are you saying that the normal 40 round draft is NOT mostly comprised of college Jrs?

“The NCAA is yet to decide whether to extend an extra year of eligibility for all Division I spring-sport athletes, just seniors or none at all. If the NCAA decides to extend eligibility for no D-I spring sport athletes or only seniors, it would leave undrafted juniors with a pair of poor choices. In a normal year, a college junior picked between the sixth and 15th rounds could expect to normally sign for between $125,000 and $250,000. In 2020, if they go undrafted, they can either sign for a maximum of $20,000 or return to school, knowing their negotiating leverage will be limited the following year as a senior sign. Depending on the NCAA’s decision on eligibility, they would also have to risk returning and competing for bonuses next year with a much larger pool of senior players on top of competing for playing time with an extremely talented incoming freshman class.”

This is what I’m talking about, when I say difficult. Direct quote from the article https://www.baseballamerica.co...rts-incoming-talent/ in case some do not want to read the entire thing.