Tell me if I'm wrong, but coaches don't like this new OV rule because they will end up having to spend more money to bring their recruiting targets to campus during their junior year whereas under the current rules they get the vast majority of their verbal commitments without ever having to pay for a student and their family to officially visit campus?
Your are wrong. They can bring them in on UV as juniors and then invite their signed recruits later as seniors for OV, as most do now.
Here's my thinking on how it changes coach's decision making in a potentially costlier way:
Prospect A is a top rated catcher who is known to be talking seriously to five different programs heading into the start of his junior year. He's rebuffed offers from lesser programs and now tells the coaches at his top five schools that he's seriously interested but would need an OV before making a decision. Starting September 1 of his junior year, that's now an option that can be put on the table in a way that it couldn't before. Sure, he could take UV's, but since he's a national caliber prospect from a low-income family interested in Miami, Arizona State, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss, there's no way he could afford to make all those UV's. So now if I'm a coach at one of these schools and I really want this kid to be my starting catcher in three years time, I'm going to shell out for a OV to keep myself in the running. Under the current rules, that arms race wasn't an option. If the kid exhausts his five allowed OV's, then one prospect has eaten up part of the budget's of four programs where he won't end up committing.
This is not to suggest this will always be the case, but as the current system stands coaches can very easily budget their OV's to match the number of recruits they plan to bring in for any given class. They are allowed no more than 25 total for any given class if I'm not mistaken, but I doubt very much that any program ever funds 25 OVs from a single class under the current rules. More likely 8-15, at most. The OV is more of a team building device for guys already signed than it is a recruiting tool. Now that changes. Unless I'm missing something about how the new rules will work, this makes the OV a greater part of a coach's arsenal and those schools who can afford it will now be able to 'use' OV's to get the top prospects.
I read somewhere-- I think it was in an article about the new Boise State program --that the average D1 college loses (in other words, costs) about $960,000 a year. It's a complete guess, but lets just say your average official visit for programs like Vanderbilt or Stanford that recruit nationally is about $2000. (Flights, Hotels, Meals, Staff Time, Etc). That means your current budget per year is about $20,000 for 10 OVs. This new rule change will potentially double that to $40,000 a year. It's not going to break the bank, but neither is a five percent increase in costs chump change for coaches dealing with impecunious athletic directors looking to control expense in non-revenue generating sports.
If I'm still wrong, please tell me where my logic train derails.