NCAA, Coaches, and Players - Get ready for the Slaughter

Agree with most of what you said. With one major exception. In the most competitive programs (especially) coaches are going to take the proven performer over an unproven freshman “prospect.” That means rosters will be older - not younger. There is going to be a slaughter all right, but it’s the young players that are going to get butchered. I heard today from an MLB Scout that the 2020 AND the 2021 MLB drafts will both be shortened to 5 rounds. This will back up the logjam of players even more if that turns out to be true. Any 2020 HS grad that is committed to a competitive D1 program should be reevaluating their situation and looking for options. 

saw this posted earlier today and it was a great video to watch coaches from TCU, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ok State, Creighton and Ole Miss. Skip to minute 24 unless you want to hear about how the season ended and what they all thought about it. THey get into Roster Management, Draft, funding spots, cuts, summer ball, travel, and appreciating the most time they've had with their families and kids ever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvK26itbDL0 

Coaches talked about the schools stepping up like TCU (cha-ching anyway) footing the bill for the seniors, not AD.

I do think the next year will indeed be interesting and I share your view. I got the senior thing, sort of, but not the underclassmen. This year was NOT wasted. They got a year of school. 8 months with strength, nutrition, and position coach, fall season, spring prep, and whatever games they got in during the short season. That's more games than anyone in high school got. Everyone, everyone, still got the benefit of this year and got better, even the injured. No it didn't end ideally, but they aren't owed anything. This is life and life is going to happen and always will.  

The seniors were 3 months from finishing, drafting, and/or moving on. Wheels should be in motion or you aren't/weren't prepared. Not all programs were going to Omaha, so 2 months of baseball didn't get finished.....10% get drafted across those eligible. What are the other 90% doing to be ready for life?

College isn't about a participation trophy and no one should expect one. People would kill for the 8 months they had and wouldn't complain about it. it is a privilege to play at the next level. One that is earned and should be respected. Not given. 

Sorry y'all. I was raised "Half Full" and always try to see the best out of a situation and I agree with the coaches and share hope that this should all work itself out. They did say this next year or 2 college baseball will be the best it ever has as the talent will spread across all divisions, JUCO and NAIA in order for those to transfer and get their time in. The level of talent will be immense. Should make for some great baseball.

As you say it won't be pretty, but it will be done and we'll get back to and adjust to what the new "normal" is.

I saw most of that video too. I know a couple of the guys on the panel. I hope you know that most of those guys are Recruiting Coordinators and those guys are gonna put a “glass all the way full” spin on everything. You can believe whatever you want. But if I were in your shoes I would be listening to people who have been there. 

True that. Manage the message. Manage the panic.

I don't doubt it just got harder for the next few years. 

We were hoping for some summer ball with East Cobb at some various big events. Would hope those still happen.  but that seems to be less likely, but fingers are crossed.  There's always Jupiter. We're at least for the time being remaining realistic and hopeful, in April, for people talking about baseball in June/July or October....

I appreciated their viewpoints, for what they are. 
Appreciate the talk of "the future" whatever that turns out to be.

https://www.roanoke.com/sports...a2-d8b4a11e0525.html

Another interesting take on what is going on financially for Athletic Departments across America.

I agree with most of what you said. But I think calling college players who want to finish their season naive and foolish is over the top. They went to school to play baseball, they want to play and most will never play again. Do I think seniors should have got another year? No. Are they foolish for wanting to come back? No. 

As for the mini coaches convention, don't believe everything they say. They'll never come out and say "We're screwed, I have to find a way to make 9 scholarship players leave within the next 12 weeks." The conversations college coaches have with the public are a lot different than the conversations they have with who's in the know. Right now it's not good for them. Until the draft hits and they know exactly what they're losing, there really isn't anything they can do. The biggest takeaway from the video: nothing is close to being official right now. 

Agree on putting the message out that everything is good but really isn't.  I will agree with, I think it was Kyle Peterson, that said almost all of the draftees this year will have to agree to a pre-draft commitment before they will get drafted.  If you only have 5 players you can draft, you better be able to sign all 5. 

It think there will be a lot of conversations with 2020 guys in the next couple of months about going JUCO where coaches have made deals with JUCO coaches to send a player or players to them and in return promise to recruit those guys and others from that JUCO heavily in the next several years. 

Everybody has said that college baseball from bottom to the top will be tougher next spring than it ever has been.  I will also agree that some mid-major who has 7-8 corona seniors, especially if 5 are pitchers, returning could win the whole thing next spring. 

I wonder if college baseball will experience a contraction the next years.

If the minors really contract teams and the draft stays contracted to 5 to 10 rounds there will be a lot less spaces in pro ball.

Also if free college tuition really comes like many politicians want maybe the appeal of a scholarship goes a little down.

So if you don't need a scholarship to pay for college and there is less of a chance to get to pro ball some  kids might decide against continuing to play past HS.this could also have effects on the whole youth baseball industry.

adbono posted:

I saw most of that video too. I know a couple of the guys on the panel. I hope you know that most of those guys are Recruiting Coordinators and those guys are gonna put a “glass all the way full” spin on everything. You can believe whatever you want. But if I were in your shoes I would be listening to people who have been there. 

Completely agree with how a recruiting coordinator will portray the situation.  Just a point, the recent MLB/MLBPA agreement gives the MLB the right to shorten the 2020 draft to 5 rounds and the 2021 to 20 rounds.  Can you tell me the source for the 2021 being 5 rounds? 

I agree D1 commits should be paying attention, as most are. But if you keep your commitment, what is the worst that can happen? Told you will "never see the field for me" once a player shows up, not get in a game as a college freshman then transfer to a JUCO for 2021? While that would be terrible for a player, at least the worst possible outcome is known.  What's the worst that can happen if they give up their commitment without showing up to find out?  They'll be laying in a bed in a nursing home in 80 years wondering what would have happen if I showed up to my D1 "tryout".

In any case, can you answer a couple questions, mostly timeline/scholarship count questions?

At what date does the D1 school have to actually be at 11.7 scholarships?  First day of class?

For the current players on scholarship plus incoming freshman/JUCO players, is there a limit to what current LOI's sum up to?  I seem to recall Keller from Iowa say the number "13" in an interview.

Can a JUCO player (or HS for that matter, thinking of Baylor this year) show up for spring semester and get money and play?

How late can a D1 commit go and then move to a JUCO?  August?  December?  I am assuming no on December, because the player would have received money from the D1 for the fall, starting their eligibility clock.

I would think a RC's play would be to get as many of the recruits on campus, then make their decisions. But some schools may have so many players they need to "let some players know" now or this summer.  Do you see any increase in "showcase" or summer ball for 2020's? So RC's can get an earlier start on making the moves needed to fit to the scholarship limits?  

Dominik85 posted:

I wonder if college baseball will experience a contraction the next years.

If the minors really contract teams and the draft stays contracted to 5 to 10 rounds there will be a lot less spaces in pro ball.

Also if free college tuition really comes like many politicians want maybe the appeal of a scholarship goes a little down.

So if you don't need a scholarship to pay for college and there is less of a chance to get to pro ball some  kids might decide against continuing to play past HS.this could also have effects on the whole youth baseball industry.

Maybe a contraction, but for none of the reasons listed. I would think very few only go to college because they got offered a partial baseball scholarship.  For most families, getting that 35% baseball scholarship is not even close to a break even proposition.  Playing baseball in college may be a reason a person is in college, but it's not the scholarship.

The reason for so much youth sports (and other activities) is the amount of disposable income in our society. It's because we can.

It's because being really good at baseball is a young man's identity.  Whether that really good is merely pretty good for a high schooler, or for the very few, really, really good.

If I step back, it's weird to me colleges have sports at all.  I think we are the only nation in the world that has any significant level of sports associated with college.  The other world sports generally sign their prospects at a very young age to developmental club leagues. 

Yeah in europe there is only rec sports at  colleges as here is no draft and kids often play in youth teams of the big clubs (in soccer) or they play in youth teams of minor league teams and then get signed by bigger clubs.

PABaseball posted:

I agree with most of what you said. But I think calling college players who want to finish their season naive and foolish is over the top. They went to school to play baseball, they want to play and most will never play again. Do I think seniors should have got another year? No. Are they foolish for wanting to come back? No. 

As for the mini coaches convention, don't believe everything they say. They'll never come out and say "We're screwed, I have to find a way to make 9 scholarship players leave within the next 12 weeks." The conversations college coaches have with the public are a lot different than the conversations they have with who's in the know. Right now it's not good for them. Until the draft hits and they know exactly what they're losing, there really isn't anything they can do. The biggest takeaway from the video: nothing is close to being official right now. 

I don't think they're naive and foolish for wanting it.  They are the definition of naive and foolish for insisting on it without thinking about the consequences and repercussions of those actions.  I don't fault them for it, it is who they are and who they are supposed to be at that age. 

Again, I think the NCAA did exactly right by seniors, but declaring renewed eligibility to all spring athletes within hours of canceling the season was irrational and ill-conceived.

Go44dad posted:

adbono posted:

I saw most of that video too. I know a couple of the guys on the panel. I hope you know that most of those guys are Recruiting Coordinators and those guys are gonna put a “glass all the way full” spin on everything. You can believe whatever you want. But if I were in your shoes I would be listening to people who have been there. 

Completely agree with how a recruiting coordinator will portray the situation.  Just a point, the recent MLB/MLBPA agreement gives the MLB the right to shorten the 2020 draft to 5 rounds and the 2021 to 20 rounds.  Can you tell me the source for the 2021 being 5 rounds? 

I agree D1 commits should be paying attention, as most are. But if you keep your commitment, what is the worst that can happen? Told you will "never see the field for me" once a player shows up, not get in a game as a college freshman then transfer to a JUCO for 2021? While that would be terrible for a player, at least the worst possible outcome is known.  What's the worst that can happen if they give up their commitment without showing up to find out?  They'll be laying in a bed in a nursing home in 80 years wondering what would have happen if I showed up to my D1 "tryout".

In any case, can you answer a couple questions, mostly timeline/scholarship count questions?

At what date does the D1 school have to actually be at 11.7 scholarships?  First day of class?

For the current players on scholarship plus incoming freshman/JUCO players, is there a limit to what current LOI's sum up to?  I seem to recall Keller from Iowa say the number "13" in an interview.

Can a JUCO player (or HS for that matter, thinking of Baylor this year) show up for spring semester and get money and play?

How late can a D1 commit go and then move to a JUCO?  August?  December?  I am assuming no on December, because the player would have received money from the D1 for the fall, starting their eligibility clock.

I would think a RC's play would be to get as many of the recruits on campus, then make their decisions. But some schools may have so many players they need to "let some players know" now or this summer.  Do you see any increase in "showcase" or summer ball for 2020's? So RC's can get an earlier start on making the moves needed to fit to the scholarship limits?  

 

Not sure I can answer every Q completely. Source of 2021 draft being 5 rounds was a MLB Scout opinion - not official. A player on scholarship at a D1 can drop down to a JuCo at winter break, receive a scholly from the JuCo (assuming they have one to give) and be eligible to play in the spring. Happens all the time. The D1 eligibility clock doesn’t start until your name appears on a 35 man spring roster. RCs will get as many players on campus as possible and then figure out what to do with them as fall progresses. That’s been going on for a while too. The point of all my comments is this : I think you are in a better position to reevaluate your options now, as opposed to December of freshman year when I expect more good players to be leaving D1 programs than ever before. 

adbono posted:

Go44dad posted:

adbono posted:

I saw most of that video too. I know a couple of the guys on the panel. I hope you know that most of those guys are Recruiting Coordinators and those guys are gonna put a “glass all the way full” spin on everything. You can believe whatever you want. But if I were in your shoes I would be listening to people who have been there. 

Completely agree with how a recruiting coordinator will portray the situation.  Just a point, the recent MLB/MLBPA agreement gives the MLB the right to shorten the 2020 draft to 5 rounds and the 2021 to 20 rounds.  Can you tell me the source for the 2021 being 5 rounds? 

I agree D1 commits should be paying attention, as most are. But if you keep your commitment, what is the worst that can happen? Told you will "never see the field for me" once a player shows up, not get in a game as a college freshman then transfer to a JUCO for 2021? While that would be terrible for a player, at least the worst possible outcome is known.  What's the worst that can happen if they give up their commitment without showing up to find out?  They'll be laying in a bed in a nursing home in 80 years wondering what would have happen if I showed up to my D1 "tryout".

In any case, can you answer a couple questions, mostly timeline/scholarship count questions?

At what date does the D1 school have to actually be at 11.7 scholarships?  First day of class?

For the current players on scholarship plus incoming freshman/JUCO players, is there a limit to what current LOI's sum up to?  I seem to recall Keller from Iowa say the number "13" in an interview.

Can a JUCO player (or HS for that matter, thinking of Baylor this year) show up for spring semester and get money and play?

How late can a D1 commit go and then move to a JUCO?  August?  December?  I am assuming no on December, because the player would have received money from the D1 for the fall, starting their eligibility clock.

I would think a RC's play would be to get as many of the recruits on campus, then make their decisions. But some schools may have so many players they need to "let some players know" now or this summer.  Do you see any increase in "showcase" or summer ball for 2020's? So RC's can get an earlier start on making the moves needed to fit to the scholarship limits?  

 

Not sure I can answer every Q completely. Source of 2021 draft being 5 rounds was a MLB Scout opinion - not official. A player on scholarship at a D1 can drop down to a JuCo at winter break, receive a scholly from the JuCo (assuming they have one to give) and be eligible to play in the spring. Happens all the time. The D1 eligibility clock doesn’t start until your name appears on a 35 man spring roster. RCs will get as many players on campus as possible and then figure out what to do with them as fall progresses. That’s been going on for a while too. The point of all my comments is this : I think you are in a better position to reevaluate your options now, as opposed to December of freshman year when I expect more good players to be leaving D1 programs than ever before. 

Thanks. All good stuff. 

I think a few coaches will tell some ahead of time that there is not room this fall but it will the bottom level walk-ons and maybe a few but very few preferred walk-ons just because there might be so many players there this fall that they cannot have room for them to practice and would rather get rid of them now so they don't have 60 guys at fall.  I think there will be some scholarship guys who might be "encouraged" to go to a juco or somewhere else before fall according to numbers.  The sad part is I think some of them will not be "encouraged" until late July after draft or early August when there are very few places to go.  But as has been said if they signed a NLI they can still come and get their scholarship.  But as one friend said that would be like marrying a woman who told you she really did not want to marry you and hoping you could change her mind after you were married.

PitchingFan posted:

I think a few coaches will tell some ahead of time that there is not room this fall but it will the bottom level walk-ons and maybe a few but very few preferred walk-ons just because there might be so many players there this fall that they cannot have room for them to practice and would rather get rid of them now so they don't have 60 guys at fall.  I think there will be some scholarship guys who might be "encouraged" to go to a juco or somewhere else before fall according to numbers.  The sad part is I think some of them will not be "encouraged" until late July after draft or early August when there are very few places to go.  But as has been said if they signed a NLI they can still come and get their scholarship.  But as one friend said that would be like marrying a woman who told you she really did not want to marry you and hoping you could change her mind after you were married.

I like that analogy, but it is only sort of like that.  If you get athletic money,  you are a "counter" and automatically count against the 11.7, the 27, and the 35.  So if coaches decide to not put you on the roster, he is simply playing with a smaller roster.

I do think the NCAA will act like an arsonist fireman that then takes credit for putting out the fire he started.  They allowed this situation to be created and have been rightly taking it on the chin for years.  As it gets ready to boil-over, they are definitely going to allow the one time transfer exception come May,  which will give some relief.  Then, I think you will see some type of roster and scholarship adjustment later this summer after they have a better idea about how the draft goes, how many enter the portal, and what the real deficit is.  But mostly, after they have a better idea of what football and basketball revenues will looks like in 2020-2021.

Who does the transfer situation give relief to? Guys are still going to transfer in a baseball environment that has more players with eligibility than roster spots. Transferring right now for any player other than a senior making the grad transfer decision to use remaining eligibility is a seriously risky move. More programs are going to have fewer funds this year and only the big dogs are going to be able to pull money out of thin air to provide scholarships for returning Corona Super Seniors. This year’s road to Omaha is going to likely be dominated by P5 programs that could afford to bring back these guys with a carrot at the end of the stick, with an unexpected assist from MLB draft contraction. Can you imagine the rosters?! One thing I have not seen addressed at all is what roster limitations are going to be for travel squads and for conference/NCAA playoffs? If they go at all close to normal numbers, how will that impact teams like Oklahoma who are out there thanking their 7 returning Seniors for coming back for their Corona Senior seasons in 2021? How is that going to impact the 14-15-16 guys who are left out of the roster at that point?

The only roster limits I have seen is they said that Corona Seniors would not count against any numbers.  You are right there will be a crazy number of guys left out of roster spots.  I agree on transfer portal except I think there will be guys transferring down a level from P5 to non-P5 to mid majors to lower D1.  But that will be about it unless someone tells them they are giving them the scholarship or don't have a spot for them.

As far as revenues impacting baseball programs, I am just spit balling here, if the cash flow is a real issue I could see smaller, less funded conferences making the decision to alter the number of conference games (increasing them) in order to allow programs to still play ball but reduce the impact that travel expenses have on their programs. Most conferences can travel regionally by motorcoach, so removing the need to provide sizable guarantees to get OOC teams to come play in the early part of the year could be of benefit. But what then if all the northern tier teams in the snow belt? Let them start their 2021 season early (like Fall 2020 in late October) with in-conference games that count toward 2021 conference standings.

just spit balling...

Interesting thread.  I think you folks are spot on.   There is no doubt in my mind the NCAA kicked the can on Spring sports...no surprise given their legacy and history.  They've got bigger fish to fry with the upcoming college football revenue-stream-season that must be protected at all costs...remember the 2020 college basketball revenue stream was a bust.  All the NCAA and College Athletics was left with in 2020 were the bills.

This is going to get real messy, really quick.    ADs, HCs and RCs are going to have blood on their hands for couple years.    I wouldn't believe a word coming out of their mouths only what they do.   I realize this is a very cynical perspective of the situation, but I'm calling it like I see it.  You folks see it too.    I wish any 2020, 2021 and 2022 recruit the best of luck in the worst of times.

As always, JMO.

We were told in a company email from son's advisor that the 2021 draft is minimum of 20 rounds.  I've seen that a few places, so I thought that was official.   Maybe its not. There is always movement at Christmas break and a lot of players move to JUCO to play in the Spring.

"The D1 eligibility clock doesn’t start until your name appears on a 35 man spring roster."

This is an interesting point made by Adbono above.  Does this mean that a kid getting baseball money who does not make the roster doesn't lose a year?  Or if the acceptance of baseball money starts the clock, could a non-roster kid "pay back" his scholarship money in the second semester and leave without losing a year?

Advice for any 2020 coming in as a freshman: you better come into Fall ball at least 190-200 lbs +, strong and with a significant amount of reps against live pitching/hitting so you can hit the ground running and be competitive. Not that this isn’t good advice every year, but it’s going to be even more important this Fall.

K9 posted:

"The D1 eligibility clock doesn’t start until your name appears on a 35 man spring roster."

This is an interesting point made by Adbono above.  Does this mean that a kid getting baseball money who does not make the roster doesn't lose a year?  Or if the acceptance of baseball money starts the clock, could a non-roster kid "pay back" his scholarship money in the second semester and leave without losing a year?

Answering the second part first, as it currently stands, anyone getting athletic money automatically makes the roster.  Then answering the second part:  A kid who gets money and doesn’t play can redshirt, assuming he’s hasn’t burned a redshirt year,  but he will still count against the roster, even if he gets hurt.   

That’s not completely true. They can and do tell athletic kids at Christmas that they are wasting a scholarship and should leave...and they do.

collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:

Who does the transfer situation give relief to? Guys are still going to transfer in a baseball environment that has more players with eligibility than roster spots. Transferring right now for any player other than a senior making the grad transfer decision to use remaining eligibility is a seriously risky move. More programs are going to have fewer funds this year and only the big dogs are going to be able to pull money out of thin air to provide scholarships for returning Corona Super Seniors. This year’s road to Omaha is going to likely be dominated by P5 programs that could afford to bring back these guys with a carrot at the end of the stick, with an unexpected assist from MLB draft contraction. Can you imagine the rosters?! One thing I have not seen addressed at all is what roster limitations are going to be for travel squads and for conference/NCAA playoffs? If they go at all close to normal numbers, how will that impact teams like Oklahoma who are out there thanking their 7 returning Seniors for coming back for their Corna Senior seasons in 2021? How is that going to impact the 14-15-16 guys who are left out of the roster at that point?

I don’t think it will give relief to the players at all.   Hence, my assertion that it was foolish and naive for them to insist on an additional year of eligibility for everyone. 

It will give relief to the coaches and the NCAA to make it easier on them releasing players.   Telling them they can go to this JUCO or that one.   Or, hey you can take your chance in the transfer portal kid.   

I never forget and make sure my son never forgets, you play to have fun.   It is you coaches’ livelihood.

baseballhs posted:

That’s not completely true. They can and do tell athletic kids at Christmas that they are wasting a scholarship and should leave...and they do.

I agree, it does happen all the time, but I’m always amazed at how few players (and parents )know the rules.

Several on this site have stories of there offspring going through this scenario.   The player is under no obligation to leave if he is getting athletic money, period.  Coach doesn’t have to play you, doesn’t have to travel you, but you will be one of the 35 on the team.  

Pedaldad posted:

baseballhs posted:

That’s not completely true. They can and do tell athletic kids at Christmas that they are wasting a scholarship and should leave...and they do.

I agree, it does happen all the time, but I’m always amazed at how few players (and parents )know the rules.

Several on this site have stories of there offspring going through this scenario.   The player is under no obligation to leave if he is getting athletic money, period.  Coach doesn’t have to play you, doesn’t have to travel you, but you will be one of the 35 on the team.  

Pedaldad is correct. Essentially it is an NCAA violation for a coach to cut a players athletic scholarship unless he has broken the rules or becomes academically ineligible.  Unfortunetly what happens is the player is told they will not get playing time, but as stated, the player is under no obligation to give up the scholarship.

What's going to happen is a lot of creative ways to get 4 years in 3, which is done now, all the time.

Wow, it doesn't seem to matter which forum I browse. There are Debbie Downer's in every single one of them! I personally don't have a problem with the NCAA giving the year back; why shouldn't they? If you are injured they will give you one so why not in this case? It doesn't change anything! The coaches, AD's, and schools all hold the cards as they always have. If they want a player they will put him on the roster. It they don't, they won't. Some key points:

1. The statement "Ivy's saw the problem and didn't want any part of it" is just plain wrong. Ivy League policy says only undergraduates are eligible to play college sports. They still have that policy, therefore there was no decision for them to make. But that doesn't prevent those players form having an opportunity somewhere else; they have always had that opportunity. That doesn't mean they will find another place to play (as graduate students) but why should the NCAA get in their way?

2. If a 2020 player signed an NLI then he will be on campus for the fall. That doesn't mean the coach will still want him, but again, how is this different from any other year? It wouldn't be prudent for a player who has signed an NLI to walk (and by doing so he would have to get a release from that school) before he shows up on campus. So if a coach thought that player was worth a scholarship he's certainly going to want to see him in the fall. After all, he's banking on that player being the future of his program. The senior that didn't get drafted? Perhaps not so much. Again, totally up to the coach.

3. Returning seniors don't count against the 11.7/27 at all. So if the coach wants them he will take them. Of course that doesn't mean the school will offer any money at all. That is totally up to their budgetary constraints. So why shouldn't the NCAA allow this?

4. The sticky situation I see coming will be a result of the smaller MLB draft.  2020's will get their money because their NLI is binding. Returning players do not have this luxury. I would imagine some returning players, including red-shirt freshman (2019's), will have their scholarship dollars either taken away or reduced. I believe the deadline for this is in the coming months, correct? June 1st? So even though I understand P5's give 4 year scholarships that has nothing to do with the NCAA, correct? Meaning the school has to pull that money in order to comply with the 11.7 and 27. They will have to balance the over-recruitment (freshman NLI's which are binding for one year) with the players they gambled would be gone to the draft.

Like the virus, we won't have real data for quite some time. We'll just have to see how this all plays out. Also like the virus, let's not terrorize (slaughter?) everyone!  ;-)

ABSORBER posted:

Wow, it doesn't seem to matter which forum I browse. There are Debbie Downer's in every single one of them! I personally don't have a problem with the NCAA giving the year back; why shouldn't they? If you are injured they will give you one so why not in this case? It doesn't change anything! The coaches, AD's, and schools all hold the cards as they always have. If they want a player they will put him on the roster. It they don't, they won't. Some key points:

1. The statement "Ivy's saw the problem and didn't want any part of it" is just plain wrong. Ivy League policy says only undergraduates are eligible to play college sports. They still have that policy, therefore there was no decision for them to make. But that doesn't prevent those players form having an opportunity somewhere else; they have always had that opportunity. That doesn't mean they will find another place to play (as graduate students) but why should the NCAA get in their way?

2. If a 2020 player signed an NLI then he will be on campus for the fall. That doesn't mean the coach will still want him, but again, how is this different from any other year? It wouldn't be prudent for a player who has signed an NLI to walk (and by doing so he would have to get a release from that school) before he shows up on campus. So if a coach thought that player was worth a scholarship he's certainly going to want to see him in the fall. After all, he's banking on that player being the future of his program. The senior that didn't get drafted? Perhaps not so much. Again, totally up to the coach.

3. Returning seniors don't count against the 11.7/27 at all. So if the coach wants them he will take them. Of course that doesn't mean the school will offer any money at all. That is totally up to their budgetary constraints. So why shouldn't the NCAA allow this?

4. The sticky situation I see coming will be a result of the smaller MLB draft.  2020's will get their money because their NLI is binding. Returning players do not have this luxury. I would imagine some returning players, including red-shirt freshman (2019's), will have their scholarship dollars either taken away or reduced. I believe the deadline for this is in the coming months, correct? June 1st? So even though I understand P5's give 4 year scholarships that has nothing to do with the NCAA, correct? Meaning the school has to pull that money in order to comply with the 11.7 and 27. They will have to balance the over-recruitment (freshman NLI's which are binding for one year) with the players they gambled would be gone to the draft.

Like the virus, we won't have real data for quite some time. We'll just have to see how this all plays out. Also like the virus, let's not terrorize (slaughter?) everyone!  ;-)

 

Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt. See if you can ABSORB the meaning of that. 

collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:

Who does the transfer situation give relief to? Guys are still going to transfer in a baseball environment that has more players with eligibility than roster spots. Transferring right now for any player other than a senior making the grad transfer decision to use remaining eligibility is a seriously risky move. More programs are going to have fewer funds this year and only the big dogs are going to be able to pull money out of thin air to provide scholarships for returning Corona Super Seniors. This year’s road to Omaha is going to likely be dominated by P5 programs that could afford to bring back these guys with a carrot at the end of the stick, with an unexpected assist from MLB draft contraction. Can you imagine the rosters?! One thing I have not seen addressed at all is what roster limitations are going to be for travel squads and for conference/NCAA playoffs? If they go at all close to normal numbers, how will that impact teams like Oklahoma who are out there thanking their 7 returning Seniors for coming back for their Corona Senior seasons in 2021? How is that going to impact the 14-15-16 guys who are left out of the roster at that point?

The top 6 ranked programs in 2020 have between 2 and 4 seniors each.

Posted in another thread. Top 25 programs average 3.4 seniors/RS seniors. 
yes I was bored enough to count 

adbono posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Wow, it doesn't seem to matter which forum I browse. There are Debbie Downer's in every single one of them! I personally don't have a problem with the NCAA giving the year back; why shouldn't they? If you are injured they will give you one so why not in this case? It doesn't change anything! The coaches, AD's, and schools all hold the cards as they always have. If they want a player they will put him on the roster. It they don't, they won't. Some key points:

1. The statement "Ivy's saw the problem and didn't want any part of it" is just plain wrong. Ivy League policy says only undergraduates are eligible to play college sports. They still have that policy, therefore there was no decision for them to make. But that doesn't prevent those players form having an opportunity somewhere else; they have always had that opportunity. That doesn't mean they will find another place to play (as graduate students) but why should the NCAA get in their way?

2. If a 2020 player signed an NLI then he will be on campus for the fall. That doesn't mean the coach will still want him, but again, how is this different from any other year? It wouldn't be prudent for a player who has signed an NLI to walk (and by doing so he would have to get a release from that school) before he shows up on campus. So if a coach thought that player was worth a scholarship he's certainly going to want to see him in the fall. After all, he's banking on that player being the future of his program. The senior that didn't get drafted? Perhaps not so much. Again, totally up to the coach.

3. Returning seniors don't count against the 11.7/27 at all. So if the coach wants them he will take them. Of course that doesn't mean the school will offer any money at all. That is totally up to their budgetary constraints. So why shouldn't the NCAA allow this?

4. The sticky situation I see coming will be a result of the smaller MLB draft.  2020's will get their money because their NLI is binding. Returning players do not have this luxury. I would imagine some returning players, including red-shirt freshman (2019's), will have their scholarship dollars either taken away or reduced. I believe the deadline for this is in the coming months, correct? June 1st? So even though I understand P5's give 4 year scholarships that has nothing to do with the NCAA, correct? Meaning the school has to pull that money in order to comply with the 11.7 and 27. They will have to balance the over-recruitment (freshman NLI's which are binding for one year) with the players they gambled would be gone to the draft.

Like the virus, we won't have real data for quite some time. We'll just have to see how this all plays out. Also like the virus, let's not terrorize (slaughter?) everyone!  ;-)

 

Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt. See if you can ABSORB the meaning of that. 

Your posts appear to have a common theme; kids who commit to D1 programs as freshman don't stand a chance but the facts don't lie: D1 college rosters are filled mostly with players who arrived as committed freshman. Sure there are a few Juco transfers mixed in but they are certainly the minority. So bailing out of your freshman year NLI to go play elsewhere is not necessarily a smart move as you probably won't make it back. So if you wash out, and plenty do, you will end up somewhere. Don't preach your experiences as gospel; everyone has a different journey.

ABSORBER posted:

adbono posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Wow, it doesn't seem to matter which forum I browse. There are Debbie Downer's in every single one of them! I personally don't have a problem with the NCAA giving the year back; why shouldn't they? If you are injured they will give you one so why not in this case? It doesn't change anything! The coaches, AD's, and schools all hold the cards as they always have. If they want a player they will put him on the roster. It they don't, they won't. Some key points:

1. The statement "Ivy's saw the problem and didn't want any part of it" is just plain wrong. Ivy League policy says only undergraduates are eligible to play college sports. They still have that policy, therefore there was no decision for them to make. But that doesn't prevent those players form having an opportunity somewhere else; they have always had that opportunity. That doesn't mean they will find another place to play (as graduate students) but why should the NCAA get in their way?

2. If a 2020 player signed an NLI then he will be on campus for the fall. That doesn't mean the coach will still want him, but again, how is this different from any other year? It wouldn't be prudent for a player who has signed an NLI to walk (and by doing so he would have to get a release from that school) before he shows up on campus. So if a coach thought that player was worth a scholarship he's certainly going to want to see him in the fall. After all, he's banking on that player being the future of his program. The senior that didn't get drafted? Perhaps not so much. Again, totally up to the coach.

3. Returning seniors don't count against the 11.7/27 at all. So if the coach wants them he will take them. Of course that doesn't mean the school will offer any money at all. That is totally up to their budgetary constraints. So why shouldn't the NCAA allow this?

4. The sticky situation I see coming will be a result of the smaller MLB draft.  2020's will get their money because their NLI is binding. Returning players do not have this luxury. I would imagine some returning players, including red-shirt freshman (2019's), will have their scholarship dollars either taken away or reduced. I believe the deadline for this is in the coming months, correct? June 1st? So even though I understand P5's give 4 year scholarships that has nothing to do with the NCAA, correct? Meaning the school has to pull that money in order to comply with the 11.7 and 27. They will have to balance the over-recruitment (freshman NLI's which are binding for one year) with the players they gambled would be gone to the draft.

Like the virus, we won't have real data for quite some time. We'll just have to see how this all plays out. Also like the virus, let's not terrorize (slaughter?) everyone!  ;-)

 

Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt. See if you can ABSORB the meaning of that. 

Your posts appear to have a common theme; kids who commit to D1 programs as freshman don't stand a chance but the facts don't lie: D1 college rosters are filled mostly with players who arrived as committed freshman. Sure there are a few Juco transfers mixed in but they are certainly the minority. So bailing out of your freshman year NLI to go play elsewhere is not necessarily a smart move as you probably won't make it back. So if you wash out, and plenty do, you will end up somewhere. Don't preach your experiences as gospel; everyone has a different journey.

My posts are based on my experience and my knowledge. Which is more more than most. Good luck. 

ABSORBER posted:

Wow, it doesn't seem to matter which forum I browse. There are Debbie Downer's in every single one of them! I personally don't have a problem with the NCAA giving the year back; why shouldn't they? If you are injured they will give you one so why not in this case? It doesn't change anything! The coaches, AD's, and schools all hold the cards as they always have. If they want a player they will put him on the roster. It they don't, they won't. Some key points:

1. The statement "Ivy's saw the problem and didn't want any part of it" is just plain wrong. Ivy League policy says only undergraduates are eligible to play college sports. They still have that policy, therefore there was no decision for them to make. But that doesn't prevent those players form having an opportunity somewhere else; they have always had that opportunity. That doesn't mean they will find another place to play (as graduate students) but why should the NCAA get in their way?

2. If a 2020 player signed an NLI then he will be on campus for the fall. That doesn't mean the coach will still want him, but again, how is this different from any other year? It wouldn't be prudent for a player who has signed an NLI to walk (and by doing so he would have to get a release from that school) before he shows up on campus. So if a coach thought that player was worth a scholarship he's certainly going to want to see him in the fall. After all, he's banking on that player being the future of his program. The senior that didn't get drafted? Perhaps not so much. Again, totally up to the coach.

3. Returning seniors don't count against the 11.7/27 at all. So if the coach wants them he will take them. Of course that doesn't mean the school will offer any money at all. That is totally up to their budgetary constraints. So why shouldn't the NCAA allow this?

4. The sticky situation I see coming will be a result of the smaller MLB draft.  2020's will get their money because their NLI is binding. Returning players do not have this luxury. I would imagine some returning players, including red-shirt freshman (2019's), will have their scholarship dollars either taken away or reduced. I believe the deadline for this is in the coming months, correct? June 1st? So even though I understand P5's give 4 year scholarships that has nothing to do with the NCAA, correct? Meaning the school has to pull that money in order to comply with the 11.7 and 27. They will have to balance the over-recruitment (freshman NLI's which are binding for one year) with the players they gambled would be gone to the draft.

Like the virus, we won't have real data for quite some time. We'll just have to see how this all plays out. Also like the virus, let's not terrorize (slaughter?) everyone!  ;-)

 

Don't take this the wrong way, but the post above sounds like it is from a 2020 parent hoping for the best for their son.  I appreciate that, but...

1. Ivy's certainly had players that wanted to return.  Yes, they had a policy in place regarding undergrad players, but not all their guys were graduating and they told seniors that they wouldn't be welcome back even if they didn't graduate.  They elected not to make any changes.  Several dozen of their players have voiced their displeasure and entered the portal.

2. 2020s that signed an NLI are fine.  But no school can commit 14 new players on scholarship.  So any that are going on academic money, no money, etc.(most likely position players) are going to find themselves left out of the mix.  My experience is that the bulk of corner infielders and outfielders have no athletic money unless they are projected to be a 3-4 hole hitter.

3.  Seniors don't matter at all relative to the problem that future players, mostly 2021, not 2020s will face because 2021s have not signed NLIs yet.

4. The 2019s will NOT be redshirt freshman.  They will all be freshman, as will the 2020s.  Except 2019s will be freshman with a year of college under there belt,  a huge advantage.  Their clock hasn't started  yet.  This means schools like Duke, that doesn't commit a whole heck of a lot for an ACC school will have potentially 7 returning Juniors, 9 returning sophomores, 13 returning freshman, and 12 incoming freshman.  Not so bad, workable.  A school like Ga Tech in the ACC on the other hand currently has 10 probable returning juniors , 6 returning sophomores, 16 potential returning Freshman, and 14 incoming Freshman.   That's 30 incoming Freshman for a roster of 35.  It is going to be rough.

The deadline is July 1, not June 1 for scholarship renewal.  It won't be just 2019s that get scholarships cut.  It will be all years, and most likely it will be more position players than pitchers.  Coaches are going to protect their pitching staffs first, then 1,3, and 4 hole hitters if there is money left.  But it is much easier to replace hitters than pitchers.  

Like the Virus, we won't no the data until it's over, but we do know there will be casualties.  If you end up a casualty, try having someone tell you it wasn't a slaughter.

Pedaldad posted:

Don't take this the wrong way, but the post above sounds like it is from a 2020 parent hoping for the best for their son.  I appreciate that, but...

1. Ivy's certainly had players that wanted to return.  Yes, they had a policy in place regarding undergrad players, but not all their guys were graduating and they told seniors that they wouldn't be welcome back even if they didn't graduate.  They elected not to make any changes.  Several dozen of their players have voiced their displeasure and entered the portal.

2. 2020s that signed an NLI are fine.  But no school can commit 14 new players on scholarship.  So any that are going on academic money, no money, etc.(most likely position players) are going to find themselves left out of the mix.  My experience is that the bulk of corner infielders and outfielders have no athletic money unless they are projected to be a 3-4 hole hitter.

3.  Seniors don't matter at all relative to the problem that future players, mostly 2021, not 2020s will face because 2021s have not signed NLIs yet.

4. The 2019s will NOT be redshirt freshman.  They will all be freshman, as will the 2020s.  Except 2019s will be freshman with a year of college under there belt,  a huge advantage.  Their clock hasn't started  yet.  This means schools like Duke, that doesn't commit a whole heck of a lot for an ACC school will have potentially 7 returning Juniors, 9 returning sophomores, 13 returning freshman, and 12 incoming freshman.  Not so bad, workable.  A school like Ga Tech in the ACC on the other hand currently has 10 probable returning juniors , 6 returning sophomores, 16 potential returning Freshman, and 14 incoming Freshman.   That's 30 incoming Freshman for a roster of 35.  It is going to be rough.

The deadline is July 1, not June 1 for scholarship renewal.  It won't be just 2019s that get scholarships cut.  It will be all years, and most likely it will be more position players than pitchers.  Coaches are going to protect their pitching staffs first, then 1,3, and 4 hole hitters if there is money left.  But it is much easier to replace hitters than pitchers.  

Like the Virus, we won't no the data until it's over, but we do know there will be casualties.  If you end up a casualty, try having someone tell you it wasn't a slaughter.

1. You statements about Ivy are SO WRONG. The portal currently has the following numbers from Ivy :

Brown 6, Columbia 6, Cornell 6, Dartmouth 1, Harvard 4, Penn 4, Princeton 3, Yale 3

All except two are listed grad transfers. The two are from Brown and both played baseball for four years. You get 4 years of athletics (like UVA and some other academic schools) in the Ivy League. Both of these players were on the roster for four years; one of the two has five years--looks like he took a redshirt his freshman year (and likely missed an academic year) because he is listed as a senior for a second time in 2020.  My guess is the portal has them listed incorrectly. Because if they didn't graduate they would be wasting 4 years they spent in Ivy by transferring. As I stated in my previous post; nothing has changed, the policies remain the same.

2. I was talking ONLY about 2020's who signed NLI's. Any other 2020 commitment is at risk, as ALWAYS. So yes if a school commits 14 players on athletic scholarship (NLI), they WILL be on the roster. Mentioning non-athletic scholarships when talking about the NCAA is silly.

3. You are correct, seniors don't matter for the 11.7/27/35 but of course they could matter for playing time.  So a coach doesn't have to cut a kid because of a senior unless he feels the player he cuts will never add value to his program. But again, how is this any different than how it's always been?

4. I honestly don't know how returning players will be listed on their rosters. I would imagine you will be listed according to academic standing but who knows? I never said ONLY 2019's will lose scholarship dollars--I said "including" 2019s just to remind everyone that NCAA athletic scholarships are year-to-year. But yes, this includes ALL returning players. Because all INCOMING freshman on athletic scholarship WILL be on the roster.

Of course if you are verbally committed to a school you are always at risk. This has always been the case. That includes 2020's and beyond. I would be especially worried as a 2021 because coaches may have had every intention of making good on their promises of athletic money but may not be able when NLI's are sent this November. This website has always preached that players should be cautious verbally committing to schools where they might not be a fit. Not being offered an athletic scholarship is DEFINITELY taking on risk.

ABSORBER, the point that me and pedaldad are trying to make is that all incoming freshmen that are on athletic scholarship WILL NOT be on the roster in the spring. Some will be redshirted and some will be encouraged to leave the program at semester break. At some programs I will be surprised if half the incoming freshmen are on the spring roster. 

April post by Go44dad and others “That adbono guy is just an alarmist stirring the pot. Sure some 2020’s will get the axe, but not my boy.”

August follow up post “ANYBODY GOT ADBONO’S NUMBER? I NEED TO TALK TO HIM RIGHT AWAY!”

adbono posted:

ABSORBER, the point that me and pedaldad are trying to make is that all incoming freshmen that are on athletic scholarship WILL NOT be on the roster in the spring. Some will be redshirted and some will be encouraged to leave the program at semester break. At some programs I will be surprised if half the incoming freshmen are on the spring roster. 

I get that but my point is this: if you give up now what makes you think you will make it later? And I'm not saying don't transfer to another D1 school now but what's the reality? Mid-major's are all in the same boat. What are the chances? And you would have to get a release from your current commitment. If the coach calls you in the next few months and "offers" the release then by all means, take it--IF you have already found a D1 home at good school.  Of course you can't talk to those schools without getting the release first so how's that going to work? And I already pointed out the very low numbers of Juco players that make it to the D1 level. Not saying it can't be done but why give up your first chance for a lesser second chance? Defeatist?

So sure you may not be on the roster in the Spring but you sure are taking up valuable scholarship money. The coach has already made his scholarship cuts (taking money away) from returning players to make room for you.  So if he cuts you in the fall then sure, try to make the jump then if you still want to play baseball and give up your scholarship. If you are THAT good I'm sure a Juco will take you. And if you are telling me there is no room in Juco by then then you should know it's time to hang up your cleats and attend school for the education. Because every Juco will take another student and if you are that good you will make the roster. If not then you have been fooling yourself (and others) the entire time.

And again, just to be clear, if you aren't on athletic scholarship, then sure, reevaluate what's important to you.