NCAA Football Fall 2020

I feel like things couldn't possibly be that apocalyptic with regards to sports in the long run, but it might be interesting to see how it shakes out vis a vis the athletics vs business debate.

Aren't even the schools motivated by the business aspect of it essentially competing with each other and therefore going to have to suck it up to some extent and try to muddle through to the other side even if '20-'21 competitions are curtailed?  I assume DIII sports basically don't make money for their schools, so will it be different there?  

As things stand today, I would not assume there will be any College Football played this fall.  It's highly unlikely that all of the uncertainty we have today will be clarified by the fall.  In that scenario, it's hard to imagine all members of the NCAA aligning on playing.  You might get the SEC or ACC to play as they are in states where the population is more willing to the lean towards saving the economy, but if it's only those two conferences, would they really go forward?  Would the NCAA sanction something like that...where each conference decides?  

@AD2018 posted:

As things stand today, I would not assume there will be any College Football played this fall.  It's highly unlikely that all of the uncertainty we have today will be clarified by the fall.  In that scenario, it's hard to imagine all members of the NCAA aligning on playing.  You might get the SEC or ACC to play as they are in states where the population is more willing to the lean towards saving the economy, but if it's only those two conferences, would they really go forward?  Would the NCAA sanction something like that...where each conference decides?  

Don’t make it political. The thread will go to hell. My guess is the conferences will vote. Then the directors of the conference will bring that vote forward. I would imagine a conference would have to be unanimous for the director to bring forward a yes vote. Then the NCAA conferences vote would have to be unanimous. 

With NFL has grown adults for players. There are already rumblings the NFL won’t start on time and have a full season. I can’t imagine college presidents pushing college kids on to the field before the NFL.

Looks like Nebraska sent an email to their students stating they will have on campus instruction this fall. 

@jacjacatk posted:

Are we OK with sacrificing 1 kid out of every 5000 in college? 2? 10?

 

I'm sorry if this has been said but, better make them walk to school (people die in car wrecks). Hell people die walking down the road so better make them live in the classroom. No binge drinking, no sex, no sports, no heavy workloads (homework/suicide), and anything else that carries even the slightest risk of death. Because corona or whatever, dead is dead.

Yes, but here you're voluntarily adding Corona risk to all the others we take for granted. And, you're adding that risk to everyone who comes in contact with you.

I get that there's tradeoffs, implicit or explicit, but this is one where mitigation is definitely the correct choice.

But why are we automatically assuming if a college kid gets covid they will die (this is separate argument about how they can pass it on). Mortality rate is under 1% for kids 20 or younger. You're talking about 99.9% of college kids who might get the virus will survive. Majority won't even know they have it. We aren't "sacrificing" anybody. Like the other poster said, there are higher risks for college kids than the virus. So like anything else, you weigh the risks and make a choice. 

@jacjacatk posted:

Yes, but here you're voluntarily adding Corona risk to all the others we take for granted. And, you're adding that risk to everyone who comes in contact with you.

I get that there's tradeoffs, implicit or explicit, but this is one where mitigation is definitely the correct choice.

So the students can’t be infected at home?

Should we do nothing to prevent exposure for a group of 20 million people because its unlikely more than 20-40 thousand of them will die, over and above those who would otherwise die?

Again, there are obviously tradeoffs, but the only thing we have to work with at this point is mitigation.

FWIW, we've dealt with this before.  https://www.usatoday.com/story...urvivors/2868771001/

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

So the students can’t be infected at home?

The point of isolation is to reduce transmission. If you're willfully ignoring how staying at home would tend to make that work, I give up.

@jacjacatk posted:

The point of isolation is to reduce transmission. If you're willfully ignoring how staying at home would tend to make that work, I give up.

Yes of course that's true. But what is also true is that majority of studies have shown the most transmission occurs inside homes and confined spaces, not outdoors. It also emphasizes that even staying at home, people are going to get it (as we are clearly still seeing with lockdowns). 

But most importantly, the majority of Americans and school age kids can't stay home forever. Certainly not for a year straight or the consequences will be more dire than just covid. So it always comes back to this...what can we do to keep the country afloat while also assisting the most vulnerable at the same time. Not one or the other. 

So, I agree with all of you.  Mortality in ages 20-29 (not the same as 20-49) is extremely low, and almost all cases with very obvious risk factors.  Yet, it's a risk, and I assume that Purdue has taken into account what will happen if its hospital in a smallish college town has to deal with cases.  And the professors and staff.  But, I think it can be planned for and managed.

Honestly, we still need another month's worth of data about this.  That's why the schools that aren't going to decide until June are correct.  That's what the mitigation is for, to give us a better idea of what to do going forward.

I still ask, though:  what happens if half of Purdue's football team gets it at the same time?  Or even a few players?  Presumably the team keeps playing, like they did with H1N1?  That sure is a lot of liability waivers that will have to be signed. 

@jacjacatk posted:

The point of isolation is to reduce transmission. If you're willfully ignoring how staying at home would tend to make that work, I give up.

Do you really think college aged kids are going to be isolating 3 or 4 months from now? 

The more information that comes out about COVID the more I question whether a country wide shutdown was the right decision. But up front we didn’t know some of what we now know. However, when arguing on whether high school and college sports should return you have to apply the perceived logic of the majority and the legal liability. 

Just wondering, the next time the southeast is about to have a disastrous hurricane will NYC evacuate?

@jacjacatk posted:

The point of isolation is to reduce transmission. If you're willfully ignoring how staying at home would tend to make that work, I give up.

To reduce it to a degree, so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed. But it isn't going to magically disappear.

>The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold.<

So how long are you going to stay at home?

Come on RJM,

A highly infectious virus impacting every State should not be in the same paragraph or thought with a hurricane especially when viewed from the healthcare consequences and the longer term strains on healthcare and risks of further infection as well as reinfection.

Just today the autopsy results are being reported from the first Covid death...on 2/6/20. A woman with a healthy heart was found to have died when her heart muscle ruptured due to the virus infecting the heart wall.

We are not in the 5th inning of knowing and understanding this disease.

You can question the shutdown but I would expect the families of at least 55,000 (and growing) US families would argue the shutdown was far too little and far too late. I’ll stand with them, the ICU  and frontline medical folks in opposition.

There is a fair amount of news guesswork which I am reading saying football may be a Spring sport in 2021. If so, I would hate to guess at the impact on college baseball.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Do you really think college aged kids are going to be isolating 3 or 4 months from now? 

Do you think they are now? I have one and most of her friends went back to their college town.  They aren't isolating.

@infielddad posted:

Just today the autopsy results are being reported from the first Covid death...on 2/6/20. A woman with a healthy heart was found to have died when her heart muscle ruptured due to the virus infecting the heart wall.

It's ironic you post this. A kid that worked for me a few years back had his mother die from an aneurism of the heart. They attributed it to H1N1. He is a good kid and I knew his mom, and she was a saint. But H1N1 is gone. So....

@infielddad posted:

Come on RJM,

A highly infectious virus impacting every State should not be in the same paragraph or thought with a hurricane especially when viewed from the healthcare consequences and the longer term strains on healthcare and risks of further infection as well as reinfection.

Just today the autopsy results are being reported from the first Covid death...on 2/6/20. A woman with a healthy heart was found to have died when her heart muscle ruptured due to the virus infecting the heart wall.

We are not in the 5th inning of knowing and understanding this disease.

You can question the shutdown but I would expect the families of at least 55,000 (and growing) US families would argue the shutdown was far too little and far too late. I’ll stand with them, the ICU  and frontline medical folks in opposition.

There is a fair amount of news guesswork which I am reading saying football may be a Spring sport in 2021. If so, I would hate to guess at the impact on college baseball.

 

 

 

I’m not doing anymore COVID debates on a baseball board, especially with a lawyer. When this is over I believe (based on information that is now coming out) it will be discovered there wasn’t a need for a country wide closure. 

In Maine not one healthy person has died. The projected death total is one third last year’s state vehicle fatality rate. Does this mean all vehicles must come off the road until it’s 100% safe to be on the road? If a healthy person would die I could then compare my odds of dying of COVID versus hit by a car crossing the street. 

While the mainstream media is mocking people protesting I suggest they quit their jobs, give away all their money except $1,000 and wait ten hours in their car in a food bank handout line.

Most of the people protesting are out if work, out of money, out of food and fear being out of their home. At the same time they have minuscule odds of dying from COVID. I’m not so smug (like the media) I can’t see their side of the situation. 

@infielddad posted:

Come on RJM,

A highly infectious virus impacting every State should not be in the same paragraph or thought with a hurricane especially when viewed from the healthcare consequences and the longer term strains on healthcare and risks of further infection as well as reinfection.

Just today the autopsy results are being reported from the first Covid death...on 2/6/20. A woman with a healthy heart was found to have died when her heart muscle ruptured due to the virus infecting the heart wall.

We are not in the 5th inning of knowing and understanding this disease.

You can question the shutdown but I would expect the families of at least 55,000 (and growing) US families would argue the shutdown was far too little and far too late. I’ll stand with them, the ICU  and frontline medical folks in opposition.

There is a fair amount of news guesswork which I am reading saying football may be a Spring sport in 2021. If so, I would hate to guess at the impact on college baseball.

 

 

 

We've flattened the curve and that's the best we can do.  People have to get sick from this in order to move on.  A lot of people, like 200 million so we have herd immunity.

@infielddad posted:

There is a fair amount of news guesswork which I am reading saying football may be a Spring sport in 2021. If so, I would hate to guess at the impact on college baseball.

Wait, what?  That would be crazy.  Baseball teams fly south in March, but that's only 35 players; would all those northern teams travel south?  Or play in the snow?  I mean, I guess they could.

And then play in the fall the following year?  With only a few months off?

Honestly, I don't know that it would impact college baseball, though; in most places I don't think the market is big enough.  It might affect MLB baseball more, both in terms of fans and t.v.

Holy smokes Smitty

it is not verifiable there is any immunity!  You are on the end of the plank on herd immunity unless you are , combined, the most world renowned immunologist, virologist and epidemiologist.
There needs to be clear cut medical confirmation which is lacking so far.

AP, I reacted in a similar manner when I listened. However the information was the NCAA MUST have a college football season. They need the $$$$$$$$.

Do we envision 105,000 in the big house in September? Same number in Columbus Ohio in October? What about Penn. State, Rutgers, U of Maryland. Will there be a football season without the Big 10? Doubtful in my view.

Dr Fauci and Dr Birx, among others,are indicating major concerns for the Fall.

One experience in Hokkaido Japan showed reopening too early to be disastrous.

IMO, posts like that from Smitty are a nice rhetoric but not the medical reality 

States are opening. Watch us....

Infield dad,

I'm not talking about football.  My post is life reality.  The fact is there is no vaccine.  Another fact is we cannot stay in our house for the next 30 years till I die of old age.  So what, other than getting on with it, should we do?  Medical experts, Fauci included, said we needed to flatten the curve.  It was NEVER about no one getting sick.  It was about spreading it out.  We've done this.  Well, maybe we're not ready to open completely up, or maybe we are.  But saying we're going to stay inside for a long, long time so no one gets sick, without any target metrics for when we open up, is ridiculous.

@baseballhs posted:

States are opening. Watch us....

Watch you get more people sick, die and spread the virus. Your “us” has no more rights than the 75% who say you are WRONG! Even the White House agreed reopening is premature under their vague guidelines.
Since this is about college football, the idea of bringing about 200,000 people to Ann Arbor, Columbus,  State College, etc(fans, teams, TV, police, field, food, etc)is going to be decided with a different guidance than “watch us.”

@infielddad posted:

AP, I reacted in a similar manner when I listened. However the information was the NCAA MUST have a college football season. They need the $$$$$$$$.

Do we envision 105,000 in the big house in September? Same number in Columbus Ohio in October? What about Penn. State, Rutgers, U of Maryland. Will there be a football season without the Big 10? Doubtful in my view.

Do they need the ticket money?  Or the television money?  Do they think they'll get 105,000 at football games in Michigan in February?  Anywhere in Big 10 country?  I mean, maybe by then people will just be ready for anything, even watching football under a foot of snow.   If it's about t.v., then they can do it in the fall with just student fans in the stadium (assuming that the students are living on campus anyway).

I agree that if there is no football, it impacts college baseball.  Gosh, what if D1 athletics had to go on the D3 model for a year...

AP

i don’t post much anymore. Our son coached at the D1 level for 7 years after injuries ended his MILB time.

College baseball at the D1 level at close to 95% of the D1 Universities is very far down the food chain in importance.

If there is basketball and Football overlapping into the Spring of 2021, I would be concerned about non- revenue sports including baseball 😨

@infielddad posted:

Watch you get more people sick, die and spread the virus. Your “us” has no more rights than the 75% who say you are WRONG! Even the White House agreed reopening is premature under their vague guidelines.
Since this is about college football, the idea of bringing about 200,000 people to Ann Arbor, Columbus,  State College, etc(fans, teams, TV, police, field, food, etc)is going to be decided with a different guidance than “watch us.”

As others have pointed out, the empty stadium TV revenue is the safest way to play. If fans are allowed there are other factors to consider. One is immunity or no immunity, the studies I’ve read shows those infected a second time have been asymptotic due to viral load (and other virologist speak) and possibly not contagious. If this can be proven by the fall then you Have a good chunk of the student population you don’t have to worry about.  Also, fans (at least most of them) will be wearing face masks and I’m sure there would be hand sanitizer everywhere. 

@infielddad posted:

Watch you get more people sick, die and spread the virus. Your “us” has no more rights than the 75% who say you are WRONG! Even the White House agreed reopening is premature under their vague guidelines.
Since this is about college football, the idea of bringing about 200,000 people to Ann Arbor, Columbus,  State College, etc(fans, teams, TV, police, field, food, etc)is going to be decided with a different guidance than “watch us.”

What is the source of your 75% comment?

Infielddad, I appreciate all your posts, especially with your experience.  I'm interested in the implications of football for sports like baseball, which was the original point of this thread.  I have a son playing D3, and I live near a D1 program, so I've been interested in what is the same and what is different about how they are run, obviously the football money plays into that at D1 (and basketball - good point that that might not start until January either). 

Thus, I really do wonder what would happen to D1 baseball if there were no football money next year.  Would they not be able to pay the coaches?  Pay the scholarships?  Maintain the field?  Pay the umpires?  Buy the equipment?  Hire the tutors?  Pay all the trainers?  Pay for travel?

@Smitty28 posted:

Infield dad,

I'm not talking about football.  My post is life reality.  The fact is there is no vaccine.  Another fact is we cannot stay in our house for the next 30 years till I die of old age.  So what, other than getting on with it, should we do?  Medical experts, Fauci included, said we needed to flatten the curve.  It was NEVER about no one getting sick.  It was about spreading it out.  We've done this.  Well, maybe we're not ready to open completely up, or maybe we are.  But saying we're going to stay inside for a long, long time so no one gets sick, without any target metrics for when we open up, is ridiculous.

Amen! Good lord we have lost our minds, at some point we have to move forward . In CT .00014% of the population has died, 45% of which were in nursing homes.really? We are going to stay inside for that? Older/compromised stay inside, the rest of us need to practice good hygiene and move on.

@anotherparent posted:

Do they need the ticket money?  Or the television money?  Do they think they'll get 105,000 at football games in Michigan in February?  Anywhere in Big 10 country?  I mean, maybe by then people will just be ready for anything, even watching football under a foot of snow.   If it's about t.v., then they can do it in the fall with just student fans in the stadium (assuming that the students are living on campus anyway).

I agree that if there is no football, it impacts college baseball.  Gosh, what if D1 athletics had to go on the D3 model for a year...

To be clear about the economics of college sports, it’s about the TV contract $$.  Gate is obviously not unsubstantial, but it’s absolutely not the driving consideration.  Big 10 could have a CFB season with no fans and that would provide the conference with a majority of its revenue.  Will also add these contracts also  have language stipulating every variable under the sun.  Moving from Fall to Spring is not one of them.  https://www.chicagotribune.com....html?outputType=amp

@infielddad posted:

Watch you get more people sick, die and spread the virus. Your “us” has no more rights than the 75% who say you are WRONG! Even the White House agreed reopening is premature under their vague guidelines.
Since this is about college football, the idea of bringing about 200,000 people to Ann Arbor, Columbus,  State College, etc(fans, teams, TV, police, field, food, etc)is going to be decided with a different guidance than “watch us.”

My point is, everyone I know is ready to open.  Why are we safe going into the grocery store or target or Home Depot but not any other retail space? Our zip has not had a new case in over 3 weeks.  People are not sheltering in place anymore.  I’m saying, watch us open and the sky not fall. We may get some cases, we will not overwhelm the system.  I’m not going to post Sweden studies but you can look them up. They are not using scare tactics there. In addition, grocery stores have put up sneeze guards everywhere and marks where to stand, people are wearing masks, everything is being disinfected. Wash your hands and let’s get moving.  If you are immune compromised, stay in and let some herd immunity happen.  In the emails from the Universities around us, they are all saying they cannot confirm it yet, but plan to have on campus instruction in the fall.  If they don’t, they are in trouble, I’ve already seen a ton of fb posts from parents saying they will defer a year or do a local cc if instruction is online for Fall.

@Fmr coach now Dad posted:

Amen! Good lord we have lost our minds, at some point we have to move forward . In CT .00014% of the population has died, 45% of which were in nursing homes.really? We are going to stay inside for that? Older/compromised stay inside, the rest of us need to practice good hygiene and move on.

I understand how everyone feels, however this is not about older/compromised people staying inside.  The latest revelation is that young and middle aged patients are suffering sudden strokes.  Many of these patients did not even know that they had the virus.  I think that there is so much they still do not know about this virus. Let's get people back safely to work first.

FYI, as stated by infielder,  there is no guarantee that you cannot get the virus again. There is probable guarantee that there are a lot of people walking around that have no idea they have the virus and have infected others. That is a problem. 

I don't think that the consideration is about whether you play in an empty or full stadium, but it's more about the logistics of moving so many people from one place to another, then sending them back into the student population.  Doing the same thing the next week, etc.

As far as baseball, I have heard rumors that the NCAA could possibly cut the season short by eliminating conference games. It would become more regional play than long distance. No conference championship games. This would cut down costs for the schools as well as the NCAA.  I don't know if that covers D2, D3 as well.  I haven't heard anything about cutting out baseball altogether, but agree that football and basketball take precedence over all sports. 

Our governor is going to start to slowly open our state. However, he did specify that at this time there would be no large gatherings or events.

@infielddad posted:

Holy smokes Smitty

it is not verifiable there is any immunity!  You are on the end of the plank on herd immunity unless you are , combined, the most world renowned immunologist, virologist and epidemiologist.

I find it very amusing that the latest argument against opening up is that nobody has verified  we can achieve herd immunity.

So does than mean we should stay sheltered in our homes waiting for a vaccine that is never going to happen? Why are we working on a vaccine if antibodies can't provide immunity?

This country has lost its marbles.

Students, including football players and other athletes, will be and have been infected. This is going to happen whether they are home or on campus. They are not going to isolate. Most people aren’t isolating now. For a lot of football players they are probably better off being on campus where they will have access to better healthcare than they would if they are home. All of the risks mentioned are still risks with closed campuses.

From the President of Brown, who, needless to say, isn’t coming at this from a conservative perspective.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...ps://t.co/4zlF67sq5V

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Students, including football players and other athletes, will be and have been infected. This is going to happen whether they are home or on campus. They are not going to isolate. Most people aren’t isolating now. For a lot of football players they are probably better off being on campus where they will have access to better healthcare than they would if they are home. All of the risks mentioned are still risks with closed campuses.

I frequently tune into my representatives info calls. They had a doctor from the FAU school of medicine on the other day.

I didn't get the impression that she felt the same way you do.  There has to be more testing.

However, I do believe that most schools will be opening up their campuses in August, unless things get worse, which is a very strong possibility. 

@TPM posted:

I frequently tune into my representatives info calls. They had a doctor from the FAU school of medicine on the other day.

I didn't get the impression that she felt the same way you do.  There has to be more testing.

However, I do believe that most schools will be opening up their campuses in August, unless things get worse, which is a very strong possibility. 

Are you saying students won’t be infected if they stay home or that they are and will completely isolate themselves. Or that some football players will receive better healthcare at home?