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Looking through PGCrosschecker's list of 2010 commits at various D1 schools, I'm noticing something - It seems like this year's class of LHPs doesn't throw very hard. I'm noticing quite a few mid-80s LHPs commit to some very good, even top D1 programs. Obviously, velocity is not everything, especially for LHPs, but this does seem to be bucking the typical trend. A bunch of LHPs with low-80s heat committing to D1s as well. Even on the higher end of the scale, I'm not sure if there's a LHP from this class who throws harder than 91.

Anybody have similar/contrary observations? Is this an unusual year? Or are there almost always a lot more hard-throwing RHPs in a given year? And does anyone know how 2011 looks for LHPs as a whole?
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I took a look at the top LHP's in the AAA MiLB for Int'l League(Matt Maloney, Wes Whisler, Ben Jukich, Kei Igawa). All of these guys throw in the upper 80's and barely hit 91. Do we really expect a 17 year old Southpaw to throw that hard?

Or have the leagues come to depend on LHPs as finesse pitchers...relievers that throw on the inside and get batters out regardless of velocity?
Last edited by sandlotmom
Usually I don't like to throw names out there on this message board, but seeing names are being posted and so that one of the best is listed, I will add him... Jimmy Hodgskin (FL) is one of the top HS 2010 LHP we have seen this year in the country. And we have seen all the others mentioned. We do need to see more of Booser, though. The others that "jesse" mentioned, we have seen a lot!

sandlotmom,

It's not rare that a AAA pitcher threw just as hard in high school, or even harder, than they do now. Wes Whisler while a HS pitcher in Indiana is one of those. Sometimes this is a result of learning to transfer from thrower to pitcher.

I never really "expect" a 17 year old to throw that hard, but we have seen many who do. In fact, there's a current 16 year old lefty that we have seen in the mid 90s, consistent 91-94. They're not common, but they do exist.

Regarding high velocity lefties, each year is different it seems. There are always some high velocity RHP's every year, but not so with LHP's. As Jesse mentioned, 2009 was an outstanding year for hard throwing LHPs. FYI, while 90-91 is outstanding velocity, it is not high velocity.

I would expect one of the top lefties in 2010 will step it up a couple mph's this coming spring.
I certainly can't speak beyond my own little area, Sacramento, but the original comment certainly applies here. Among the top 2010 left handers in this region are several who sit 84-87, and one is going to Cal, while another is going to St. Mary's. The hardest throwing left hander I'm aware of locally is a kid who sits 88-90 but has no college offer yet due to some concerns that have little to do with his pitching ability, from what I understand. Last year, the hardest throwing left handers in this region all ended up going to jr. colleges, in several cases due to lack of grades.
There is nothing unusual about low to mid 80's lefties committing to and succeeding at top 30 D1 schools. Most folks would be surprised (at the numbers) if they held a gun at a dozen D1 games over any weekend. The average velocity is probably under 90 almost everywhere....regardless of which side the ball starts from.
Last edited by Dad04
quote:
Originally posted by Dad04:
There is nothing unusual about low to mid 80's lefties committing to and succeeding at top 30 D1 schools. Most folks would be surprised (at the numbers) if they held a gun at a dozen D1 games over any weekend. The average velocity is probably under 90 almost everywhere....regardless of which side the ball starts from.

Would agree with you there Dad. But, your chances of getting an opportunity (if you so desire) at the next level with those numbers are pretty low, regardless of how well you do at the collegiate level. Upper 80's and above will get you some attention.
Last edited by workinghard
quote:
Originally posted by Dad04:
There is nothing unusual about low to mid 80's lefties committing to and succeeding at top 30 D1 schools. Most folks would be surprised (at the numbers) if they held a gun at a dozen D1 games over any weekend. The average velocity is under 90 almost everywhere....regardless of which side th ball starts from.

Totally agree with your take Dad04. I challenge people to go to any game where a college, pro, or top high school prospect is pitching and sit behind the radar guns. My experience with the D1 level is that starting pitchers throw about 88 mph. I am guessing when some people say they throw 90, what they really mean is that they touched 90 on at least one gun on at least one occasion - at least that is how I interpret it. Someone like Steven Strasberg doesn't need as much interpretation however

I have noticed a pretty big spread between starters and relievers. A kid on our team averaged about 89 mph when he started. As a closer he was 93 and above. Similarly, in a limited showcase type of environment where only a few innings are expected, you'll see kids throw their max velocity which is often quite different from what they would be comfortable producing in a game. Kind of like a prize fighter who came out throwing all haymakers, it might be tough to deal with for a round or two but how much would he have left after that? George Foreman knows all too well how that works
quote:
Originally posted by workinghard:
quote:
Originally posted by Dad04:
There is nothing unusual about low to mid 80's lefties committing to and succeeding at top 30 D1 schools. Most folks would be surprised (at the numbers) if they held a gun at a dozen D1 games over any weekend. The average velocity is probably under 90 almost everywhere....regardless of which side the ball starts from.

Would agree with you there Dad. But, your chances of getting an opportunity (if you so desire) at the next level with those numbers are pretty low, regardless of how well you do at the collegiate level. Upper 80's and above will get you some attention.


I agree, also. College players come in all shapes and sizes. The best (most effective) players play, regardless of numbers.

Pro scouting looks for guys who fit profiles, based on past performance of like characteristics. There are exceptions. For pitchers, exceptions are made if there is velocity and some pitchability.
Last edited by Dad04
Living in SoCal I get the chance to see many top pitcher. I have not run across too many hard throwing lefties buy many who could pitch thier butts off. We have a lefty who is 5-9 and 185 who is usually around 86-89. He was scooped up quick for his pitching ability not his velo. At the time he committed he was 84-86. In a game this summer he was sitting at 88-91 for three innings of game but not the norm for him. He did touch 91 at the PG National showcase. Some schools shied away from him due to his size but they told the regret that one now.

http://www.sgvbaseball.com
Jamie Moyer has gotten a lot of outs and won a lot of games throwing 80 mph. Tom Glavine, especially late in his career, did the same at about 83 mph. Heck, even righty Pedro Martinez had a great late season run with the Phillies throwing 84 mph fastballs (but only about 20% of the time).

Yes, lefties are always in demand. Why, I have not yet figured out except for the fact that somehow, they get people out. Whether it is the standard ump giving their tail 6 or 8 inches off the plate or movement or smarts. . . they get people out. I, for one, think the whole thing is psychological--hitters think lefties are tough to hit, umps think that fastball is on the corner even if it is a mile outside, and managers/coaches stupidly instill these ideas in their players. My view--get up there and crush that little bit of trash (now, Randy Johnson is a different story!).

Any man who thinks his kid may one day want to play baseball at the highest levels should never let that kid throw right-handed. To heck with position play and being right-handed for C, SS, 3B, and 3B--throw lefty, pitch, and play 1B or outfield.
Our entire family is right handed. When 4th son started little league at 6 yo we naturally gave him a right handed "hand me down" glove. He was taught to eat and write right handed. All seemed well. Son was athletic enough but seem awkward hitting and throwing. Oh well, not everyone is a Jeter. Son's coach thought he should try left handed. He must of seen something the rest of us had missed. So we gave it a try. Not much improvement, but we stuck with it. He became one of the hardest pitchers in the league and continued to develop in travel ball. A little wild but with lots of gas and a nasty hook. This last fall our little converted lefty took the hill for Team USA 14u in Ecuador for the gold medal game. Wow, what a ride from that little T-ball field now called Pedroia Field. Yes, leftys do have an advantage when it comes to how the ball leaves their hand begins to run away from a right handed hitter. It seems to be more natural for a fastball to run hard from a lefty than a righty. It also makes it harder to throw strikes when they are younger. Harder to control. At least for mine. Thankfully he made it through those years of strike one, strike two, backstop then HPB. Oh well, that's baseball.
Hitters tend to hit best against what they see the most often. That would be RHPs.

Among the other things often talked about, breaking ball advantages. All hitters, right or left, simply see more RHPs. This becomes an advantage to the LHP.

It is my theory that if there were an exact equal number of left and right hand hitters and pitchers. There would be no advantage either way, other than when hitter is opposite hand or pitcher is same hand.
quote:
Originally posted by PGStaff:
Hitters tend to hit best against what they see the most often. That would be RHPs.

Among the other things often talked about, breaking ball advantages. All hitters, right or left, simply see more RHPs. This becomes an advantage to the LHP.

It is my theory that if there were an exact equal number of left and right hand hitters and pitchers. There would be no advantage either way, other than when hitter is opposite hand or pitcher is same hand.


BINGO! I agree with you 100%!
quote:
Originally posted by PGStaff:
Hitters tend to hit best against what they see the most often. That would be RHPs.


I think that is why a lefty changeup is so effective also since all the youth players can practice hitting fastballs from a batting machine but they dont to my knowledge have an iron mike with a nasty changeup! So a lefty changeup has two elements that are not seen as often as a righty fastball.-lefty side pitcher and the timing of detecting, waiting and hitting a changeup
I'm just going to chime in with information I learned from our son.
Randy Johnson at 94-95 was not too tough to see and adjust to, until you made the adjustment to his fastball and the pitch was his slider that looked exactly the same coming out of his hand.
The toughest pitcher he faced in Milb was Eric Hurley, a righty in the Rangers organization who was 91-93mph at the time. He said Hurley was a lot tougher to hit than Homer Bailey who was 96-98 and many time 100mph or above.
The reason was not the velocity or right/left, it was because Hurley had a change up that looked exactly like his fastball, but was 78 to 80. Bailey could not do that, then, even though his motion was picture perfect and that first fastball was on you before you could blink.
In Milb, there are plenty of lefties in the 83-87 range who just cannot get hitters out.
From everything I talked about with our son and some of his MILB teammates, it was not so much a right/left issue, it was command, changing speeds, and making them all look the same at the release point. For our son, a right handed hitter, the toughest adjustment he had to make was hard throwing righties on his hands. He said he could see lefties much better and that adjustment was not as challenging.
With that said, there is a lot of variability and little predictability.
Last edited by infielddad
To add my 2 cents to this...

My son is a 2012 LHP. He's always been pretty effective, he competes and he throws well.

As a dad, I got excited in bull pen sessions with the radar guns showing 85-86 as an incomming freshman. What I've had to deal with is:
1.) Not all radar guns are the same
2.) Jr. throws to location with a batter in the box in game situations and the velocity drops
3.) Jr. doesn't throw to location without a batter in the box in non-game situations and the velocity brings dreams of early draft picks.
4.) Jr. doesn't throw the same way consistently day in and day out.

During this pro-scout fall season, he's gone from sitting at 84-86 in a "fall classic" in front of lots of scouts. To throwing 78-79 against a CC and not 'breaking glass' (despite striking out the 1,2,3 hitters in the first inning). It's very humbling when they start gunning every single pitch Jr. throws. There is no place to hide when the numbers don't seem to be high enough and they start asking, "What's wrong with JR today?"

There are lots of consistency issues with young pitchers. Jr can throw a ball 86 if somebody asks him to. On a really good day it'll be 88, but he can't 'pitch' at 86 or 88. He pitches on his best days at 84-85 and can be effective at 79-82 against quality HS hitters. Like I said, he struck out three straight CC hitters and hit 82 one time with most FB at 79-81.

I've heard there is a "ask a kid how hard he throws and subtract 5 mph rule". I think a lot of the above plays into this.

What does it mean? What velocity are we talking about when we talk about velocity?
1.) Sitting in the 5th inning?
2.) Overthrowing in the bullpen?
3.) Top speed in the game of his life?
4.) Average top speed over 10 starts?

Kids are kids and these numbers will vary.

Pros are gunned on every pitch. Any slight inconsistancy is documented and analyzed. The average HS kid hasn't had that happen just yet and is better for it.
quote:
Originally posted by PGStaff:
Hitters tend to hit best against what they see the most often. That would be RHPs.

Among the other things often talked about, breaking ball advantages. All hitters, right or left, simply see more RHPs. This becomes an advantage to the LHP.

It is my theory that if there were an exact equal number of left and right hand hitters and pitchers. There would be no advantage either way, other than when hitter is opposite hand or pitcher is same hand.
Where does Robbie Ray (LHP for Team USA)project in the draft?
Many good points made here.

We see most of those considered the top draft/college prospects in both showcase and tournament situations. The peak velocity seems to be about the same either way. We never list a bullpen radar gun reading.

Regarding peak velocity…

There are several important things relating to velocity. Average velocity, velocity after pitching several innings, velocity in the strike zone, velocity with movement, etc. The one thing that makes peak velocity important is when considering potential/projection.

If a player hits a 450’ homerun, he may hit it that well once, but that once tells us what he is capable of. If a pitcher throws 92 once, it tells us he is capable of throwing 92 mph. He might normally pitch in the upper 80s, but we know he can throw 92. Depending on other things, we might project him to throw mid 90s. But we know 92 is something he “can” do. Might not be able to throw it often, or even accurately at this time, but at least it is in there. With practice, instruction, conditioning, etc., his current peak velocity might become his average velocity. And if he is throwing upper 80s we can assume he is not throwing at max effort.

It really is different when one pitcher throws 85-87 and tops out at 88 and another pitcher throws 85-87 and has topped out at 92. Everything else being close to equal, these are two different level prospects. One likely has a higher ceiling.

Now, one time/one pitch is never enough to truly determine peak velocity. And peak velocity far outside the strikezone is never as important as in the strikezone. A high reading just one time could be the result of getting the reading of the ball off the bat, or even a malfunction with the gun. This doesn’t mean that the kid throwing low 80s will never throw over 90, but once you determine that a pitcher can throw a certain peak velocity, you can safely assume he will do that again or at least that he has that in him.

So the major points for us when evaluating (velocity only) are… (not necessarily in this order)

peak velocity
peak velocity in the strike zone
average velocity
sustained velocity
life with velocity
ease of velocity
mechanics with velocity

Obviously there are many other important areas when evaluating a pitcher. It’s not just all about velocity, but velocity is extremely important. It is easier to project one of the very few kids who can throw mid 90s to be a mid to better 90s Major League pitcher… Than it is to project the thousands of kids who can throw low to mid 80s to be a Jamie Moyer.

quote:
Where does Robbie Ray (LHP for Team USA)project in the draft?


cbg,

Sorry, I don't like to go there on this site. The questions would never end and I’m afraid by being honest it might create some problems. Hope you can understand.

Besides I don't get involved in the mock draft stuff. Allan Simpson and David Rawnsley do that for us. On the other hand, we don’t consider the actual draft when grading players. Rather than trying to guess what others will do and using second hand information, we prefer to give our opinion based on what we have seen. Many scouts and recruiters have told us they like it better that way (Why pay us to read what they are thinking?). Things like signability are not considered when we grade a player. We grade on our opinion of present and projected talent.

I can say that we graded Robbie a “10” at our National Showcase. He is an outstanding lefty who does throw 90, but is equally effective in the upper 80s. The first time we saw him he topped out at 76 mph in Aug, 2006. We have watched him grow up and he has track record of improving a lot every year. When that happens there is no reason to think he is done improving. He would be a great draft pick, but he is signed with Vanderbilt (I believe). IMO he is one of the top HS lefties in the country. I’m very interested in seeing how he looks this spring. I really like that kid!

Some of our guys comp him to Mike Minor (another TN HS kid who went to Vandy). Minor went early (Braves) in the draft.
Last edited by PGStaff
JMoff,
Depending on the age and he can't be that old as a 2012 it sounds like you've got a right to be excited.

Mine is 18 now and the velocity tends to vary quite a deal depending on how many innings he's going, how motivated he is to throw hard, how his control is, how strong the opposition is and how he happens to feel on a given day.

On the other hand he tends to throw harder in games than in the pen.

CASon's mechanics are less than pure and I think variation is to be expected. My guess is that as your son's mechanics become more consistent with time his velocity will become more consistent and given his age most likely increase a fair amount.

On the original subject of this thread there's a LHP from our area who was one of my favorites to watch pitch back when he was 10yo as he just plain knew how to pitch already. I expected him to have some velocity in HS especially when he got tall, but he's been a high 70s able to touch low 80s type. He signed with a pretty good D1 program. It surprised me on one hand and didn't on the other.
Last edited by CADad
CaDAD & All:

Thanks for the kind words but there is always a dark side to all this...

In one game last spring (Jr was a freshman) we were getting into the 5th or 6th and one of the other dads had a Stalker. He was reading off a few every inning or so and Jr had been been 82-85 every inning.

To start the inning in question, he said "79" to which I said, "great change up", then he said "78" to which I said "BRILLIANT, two change ups to start the inning", then he said "79" and I realized we were 3-0, they weren't change ups and that was about all he had left. The 85ish had turned into 78ish.

This whole experience (freshman through pro-scout) has been very illustrative. We aren't watching pro's on TV, we're watching the kids who can't remember to take out the trash.

Velocity on a given day is a function of mechanics on a given day or letting the alarm go off 1 hour before game time and not eating or not hydrating in the 110 sun or not putting on an under armor shirt when its 65 when he leaves the house but 45 when he pitches or warming up three times because the coaches don't know tournament start times, etc.

The number of variables / stupid things with teen pitchers is what gives all us parents gray hair.

To put a gun on them one day and say, "Jr throws X" is a **** shoot at best. Putting a gun on them 10 straight outtings will also turn hair gray when you realize just how random they are.

What I've found is that all these guns show Jr just how much work there is to do with core strengthing, speed and agility training and maturing the body.

My son is blessed, he's 6'4", left handed and 210 (although the last 10 pounds are Mac & Cheese he didn't need). He's a great competitor/pitcher. He has a chance.

He has to dedicate himself to that chance, continue to keep up the grades, score great on the SATs this Saturday, and continue to achieve as a starting pitcher this coming season, throw the pitch that's working, get outs and continue to impress.

No pro-scout / perfect game or anything else will change the fact that hard offseason work is required. Jr just signed up with Pro Advantage for the rest of the winter to get his fat buttocks in shape. I'm hoping it starts to make a difference in more than my checking account...
quote:
Originally posted by JMoff:
Pros are gunned on every pitch. Any slight inconsistancy is documented and analyzed. The average HS kid hasn't had that happen just yet and is better for it.


I agree 100% and like your attitude.
FWIW, very rarely was son gunned in HS, not until the scouts began coming around, we never used it as a "tool" and neither did his pitching coach in college. The only reason why it's used, in college and pro ball, is that loss of velcity can signal a serious problem. My son had a drop of 6-7 mph last year, which signaled an issue, which meant shut down asap.
Don't worry about petering out by the 5th or 6th inning, it takes a long time to develop the stamina needed to sustain velocity. It will come through proper training, better mechanics and a good tossing program and maturity. FWIW, most pitchers (righty and lefty) need the velo to get noticed, then cut back for better control.
Don't worry also about bad habits (not hydrating, not putting on the underarmour in cooler weather) that responsibility also comes with maturity and the desire to impress, which for most doesn't come until college or pro ball. When the lightbulb comes on it will all come together.
My husband used to complain about son's habits in HS, how he wasn't serious, how was he going to make it, yet he managed, on his own to figure it out. I always believe it is up to them to go after what they want, the more we nag the more we get stressed.

BP velo will usually aways be higher than gametime velo. As far as I know, son never had a radar gun on him in the bullpen (except during pre draft days days).
Last edited by TPM
quote:
FWIW, very rarely was son gunned in HS, not until the scouts began coming around, we never used it as a "tool" and neither did his pitching coach in college. The only reason why it's used, in college and pro ball, is that loss of velcity can signal a serious problem. My son had a drop of 6-7 mph last year, which signaled an issue, which meant shut down asap.


Why wouldn't things like that be valuable to know while in high school. There have been times when the gun has told me that a certain pitcher needs to stop, but the coach doesn't see what I'm looking at and continues to throw the kid.

quote:
Originally posted by JMoff:
Pros are gunned on every pitch. Any slight inconsistancy is documented and analyzed. The average HS kid hasn't had that happen just yet and is better for it.

JMoff,
I know what you're getting at, but if the gun is used as a tool it can be very benificial in many ways. It can show much more than just how hard someone can throw.
quote:
The average HS kid hasn't had that happen just yet and is better for it.



Disagree. Most HS kids will have lapses in concentration that consistent gunning would help bring to their attention so they can fix it. The way things are, a kid often only realizes he took a mental nap on a pitch when he has to jerk his head around to see how far it'll fly.

This is a lot of what coaches and scouts use guns for during games.
PG,
I have different philosphy on using the radar gun on younger pitchers than most do. No problem in certain situations, but there are dads who regularly place the gun on their pitcher everytime they throw a pitch.
Good coaches and and perhaps their dads who know their pitchers know when it's time to stop, usually other signs begin to show, walks, change in arm slot, etc. My husband never needed a gun to know when his pitcher was done for the night. Pitch count, longer innings, drop in slot he picked up on that much sooner than later.
Younger pitchers tend to pitch to the gun, that's just my opinion. They tend to over throw and then you get problems.
I think Sully rarely used the gun during bull pen sessions but did in a game, but I don't remember any coach gunning him during games until his last year of HS (that doesn't include showcases, tournies, etc).
Last edited by TPM
Great discussion and I appreciate all the positive feedback. I don't mind be honest about what Jr is or isn't doing (for those of you who go all the way back to the ID your son stuff, I'll save you the trip Cody Moffett pitches for Highland High in Gilbert, AZ and the Angels pro-scout team).

As I re-read this whole thing, I'm reconsidering some of what I posted...

My son IS taking action based on the 'constant gunning'. I'll be honest with all of you. I'll watch a kid throw and think WOW, THIS KID IS AMAZING!!! and the gun will say 81-82. When my kid throws, I'll start pacing and pouting and wondering if he has the flu or blew out his arm or has some incurrable disease or something and they'll say 84-85. I will think (to myself) no way my kid was throwing harder than the other kid.

What I've come to realize is that I have no clue how to judge speed with my aging eyes.

When they DID start gunning Jr. every pitch, I learned stuff, then asked about it and learned some more. I learned HS sophomores who are still growing both up and out are still learning their bodies. I learned they don't do the same thing every time out because they aren't strong, have 'stupidity issues' like mentioned in my previous post or simply haven't learned how to command their bodies yet.

Part of the equation is that Jr tends to have better movement at slower velocities, so he either has enough speed to blow it by hitters or enough movement to get it by hitters. Thus he tends to be effective every time out, we just didn't realize it was in totally different velocity zones.

What am I doing different based on all the radar energy imparted on baseballs he's thrown? Well, nothing.

What is HE doing different? Well, he finally got convinced he needs to work on the body (as I detailed in my other post). Speed and agility, core strength, and baseball pitcher's training.

If anything, it opened his eyes to 'the measurement process'.

Another thing was that the Angels saw the velocity down that one day and yanked him after one inning, simply saying they didn't know what was wrong, but they weren't about to find out by letting him go any longer. I liked that and thought the radar gun DID signal a potential issue and the immediate action was impressive.

Jr isn't hurt right now and that is a really good thing. Would he have been hurt if he went another inning?

Dad thinks no, but who knows? I'm sure glad he isn't hurt now, however...
Interesting discussion but I still stand by my opinions on use of the radar gun.
Your reply about comparing your son to another pitchers velocity shows how much it means to YOU that his success is important and I am glad that you are letting him realize what HE needs to do.

Maybe I find some of this stuff amusing because we've been through it, but I don't remember us being so hung up on velocity as some folks are these days. Mine is a RHP who still, IMO, hasn't reached his full potential and he is 24. So there are lots of years ahead of you, don't stress yourself out while he is still in HS.
I guess the velo things is because of the huge signing $$ they get nowadays and visions of sugarplums dancing in everyone's head, but I got to tell you, in my opinion, it doesn't work that way for most.

Don't take it personally, just a conclusion that I have come to these days.
Last edited by TPM

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