Player Pool Estimation

That would be opinion based and you can't really measure something subjective like opinion 

C'mon PA, don't be a party pooper, play along before another COVID debate starts.

I won't take a stab at any specific numbers...but one thing I learned is that there are many more players who are "capable of playing at" D1 than there are attending D1.

Thanks all. The reason behind the question:

My son just attended an invite event for 2022s and 2023s. Basically, the formed teams per State. About 22 kids on each team and then the States played each other...OH vs. CT, NJ vs. PA, etc. Each team played 3 games each.

Everyone there was very good. And each team was probably 3 deep at every position and everyone was pretty much equally good.

It really brought to light how many REALLY GOOD players are out there - many of which you may not be aware of - at a given position and graduating class. And, this was just one event. I'm sure there were equally as many good kids not attending or attending something else.

@PABaseball posted:

That would be opinion based and you can't really measure something subjective like opinion 

Would you at least say that it's more like 500 than 100? More like 1,000 than 500? 

Francis, I’m going to give you an experience as an example. Back when my son was fourteen I was driving by Villanova’s field. It was when the Big East was a P6. Villanova struggled each year to make the conference playoffs. But it was P6 baseball. That day they were having one of three 36 player showcases. I stopped to check it out. I stayed for three hours.

Parents in the stands were wow’ed by how good everyone was. Many were intimidated on behalf of their son’s chances. Every kid was slick with the glove. Every kid had an above average arm. Every kid hit the ball.

i knew one of the Villanova players helping out. I walked up to him and commented I only saw four swings that would survive D1 pitching. The pitcher laughed. He told me his group of teammates he,long out made the same comment. The “four” happened to have been invited after being seen at PG East Cobb.

The moral of the story is it’s hard to tell how many kids can play D1. It’s in the eye and ability to recognize skills of the beholder. 

It looks like you’re trying to calculate your son’s chances again. Stop! If he’s getting good advice and recruiting help from his travel organization let him go through the process. If you’re asking you believe your son has a chance but may be marginal to play D1. If you’re right he may get to D1 and get buried in the depth chart. Let the offers come forward, sort them out and decide.

Your son is at the hardest part of the process for a father right now. His potential market spread has been identified. But there aren’t any offers. Wait for the offers. They will come. If you’re not careful you will end up with an ulcer.

Thx. I'm not worried about an ulcer. I'm just amazed at how many kids out there are talented and who work hard. It's really an accomplishment for those who get through all that to play at the next level. I don't think the average person has an appreciation for the level of difficulty.

@Francis7 posted:

Thx. I'm not worried about an ulcer. I'm just amazed at how many kids out there are talented and who work hard. It's really an accomplishment for those who get through all that to play at the next level. I don't think the average person has an appreciation for the level of difficulty.

Getting through the recruiting process is just step one of the battle. Then the competition really begins. Recruiting is about talent. Sticking is about mental toughness. 

Once the recruits get to campus there’s about a 50/50 chance they stick with the team. The higher the level it’s likely they will transfer. At lower level they give up the sport. 

One of my son’s travel teammates took a P5 offer. It was a stretch. He never got on the field. He transferred to another mid major D1 and sat out a year. The next year by the time the season started he needed arm surgery. At that point he asked himself why he was bothering anymore. Academically he would be approaching his senior year without playing a regular season college game for three years. 

My son had an observation when he was playing. He felt everyone on the team (all 35) had the ability to start. He felt several of them were facing a challenge for the first time in their baseball life and lacked the mental toughness to endure. 

@Francis7 posted:

In any HS graduating class, how many legitimate and viable potential college players are there at each position on the field, per college division?

What would you estimate or know is the number per position?

For example...and this is totally made up and based on no evidence...

Every year 500 catchers graduate HS who are more than capable at playing at the D1 level. 

Not even sure how one would come up with the number? Look at past commitments on PG? Maybe the College Baseball Insights guy has the data?

Francis, I'll play along again but I totally agree with RJM.  I'm not trying to discourage you from posting but you keep coming back and trying to dissect the same numbers from every possible angle.  IMO, you should really save yourself a ton of pain and stop.  Your son is going to be the player he is going to be, no matter what the other numbers are.  He can affect where he will land based on his efforts and skill set development, along with his recruiting plan.  Sure, it helps to have some vague idea of how many good players there are out there but does no good to crunch and crunch and crunch...

You've been told over and over, when you go to the better events, there's a ton of really good players.  And, yes, there are several tons more not at that event.  Yes, when you actually attend a few, reality can start to hit.

There are about 300 D1 baseball programs, 275 D2, 400 D3 and 200 NAIA, 300 JC's.  That's roughly 1500 schools, including JC.  Most have very good players, most are maybe two-deep with good C's, plus another decent one.  Although, I don't know to what extent you can try to break that down by position because, as you know, the college coaches will take hitters and plug them into positions - yes, even catchers, to an extent.

There are almost 500K HS players and a little over 50K college players.  So, about 9% move on.  Obviously, the best go D1 (always some exception).  So, top 600-800 C's?  If you think your kid is a top 250 at the position, pretty good bet where he will land.  But, if you are trying to calculate if he is #600, 800, 1000, 1500, etc., it is a wasted exercise.  Too many other variables.  Hit tool, eye test, academic fit, right exposure, references, geography, right time/right place and good fortune and on and on...

You are absolutely right that the average person has no idea the level of difficulty.  But then, the waters are muddied when you see some of the outliers... the poor baseball played at some, but not all, of the lower levels.  I would guess there are probably 200-300 programs where the quality of baseball is more like decent-to-average HS ball than college ball.

PS - if you really want to keep beating the crap out of yourself, just start roster diving on the sites for all those schools and read player bio's.  Pretty much all D1's and most others have them.  You can see that that majority of college players are very accomplished and well-decorated HS players.  Compare those with the stats.  Many all-everything HS players play very little or perform poorly in college.  Getting the D1 offer seems like the golden ticket but so often isn't.

The math really doesn't matter.  What matters is that a D1 coach has a need for a player's talents and they see the players talent.  If the player is a catcher that is not far better than what has already been recruited then they will pass him over.  It doesn't mean the player is not a DI catcher, there just isn't a coach seeing him as something they need in that class.

In the pool of upper level players that are capable of playing DIII to D1 baseball it is sometimes hard to separate who will succeed at the DI level.  There is a reason about 6-8 players turn over on most DI rosters.  The coaches probably saw the players on a good day or they were not able to raise the consistency of their game to really compete for playing time.  Most teams recruit a catcher in every class, four to six pitchers, and four to six position players.  Position players that are better athletes are fair game for a position change.  Better high school shortstops will go where the team needs them.  

@cabbagedad posted:

Francis, I'll play along again but I totally agree with RJM.  I'm not trying to discourage you from posting but you keep coming back and trying to dissect the same numbers from every possible angle.  IMO, you should really save yourself a ton of pain and stop.  Your son is going to be the player he is going to be, no matter what the other numbers are.  He can affect where he will land based on his efforts and skill set development, along with his recruiting plan.  Sure, it helps to have some vague idea of how many good players there are out there but does no good to crunch and crunch and crunch...

You've been told over and over, when you go to the better events, there's a ton of really good players.  And, yes, there are several tons more not at that event.  Yes, when you actually attend a few, reality can start to hit.

There are about 300 D1 baseball programs, 275 D2, 400 D3 and 200 NAIA, 300 JC's.  That's roughly 1500 schools, including JC.  Most have very good players, most are maybe two-deep with good C's, plus another decent one.  Although, I don't know to what extent you can try to break that down by position because, as you know, the college coaches will take hitters and plug them into positions - yes, even catchers, to an extent.

There are almost 500K HS players and a little over 50K college players.  So, about 9% move on.  Obviously, the best go D1 (always some exception).  So, top 600-800 C's?  If you think your kid is a top 250 at the position, pretty good bet where he will land.  But, if you are trying to calculate if he is #600, 800, 1000, 1500, etc., it is a wasted exercise.  Too many other variables.  Hit tool, eye test, academic fit, right exposure, references, geography, right time/right place and good fortune and on and on...

You are absolutely right that the average person has no idea the level of difficulty.  But then, the waters are muddied when you see some of the outliers... the poor baseball played at some, but not all, of the lower levels.  I would guess there are probably 200-300 programs where the quality of baseball is more like decent-to-average HS ball than college ball.

PS - if you really want to keep beating the crap out of yourself, just start roster diving on the sites for all those schools and read player bio's.  Pretty much all D1's and most others have them.  You can see that that majority of college players are very accomplished and well-decorated HS players.  Compare those with the stats.  Many all-everything HS players play very little or perform poorly in college.  Getting the D1 offer seems like the golden ticket but so often isn't.

Back during the recruitment by 17u programs Diamond Nation invited my son for a visit. They wow’ed him by having the NJ Gatorade Player of the Year player there to great him.

The kid headed off to one of the top ranked SEC programs in the country. He was gone after one year. He was on the bench and no longer needed when his average hit .115. I don’t know what went wrong. But the kid had the tools. He transferred, made All ACC and was drafted in the top ten rounds. You can never be sure why it doesn’t work and where with some players. 

After noticing something on one specific P5 D1 roster I did more random searches to see if there was a trend. What I noticed on the first roster was 14 freshman, 7 sons, 7 juniors and 7 seniors. On the other P5 rosters the numbers were similar (6-8) give or take a player.

This should tell you something about what happens to freshmen. Fourteen freshman are excited entering fall ball freshman year. Typically, half aren’t very happy within months.

Well there are 297 D1 teams.  Just using 10 as a round number for number of freshman coming in, that means 3000 new D1 kids per year.  If you divide that by 9 positions, that's 333 per position.  Obviously there are more pitchers than any other position.  If we assume it's double....saying roughly 700 pitchers....that leaves 2300 kids for the other 8....or roughly 300 per position.   I would save that for every 1 kid I saw that ended up going D1, there are probably 3 or 4 others who could have if they "wanted" to....or "had the opportunity".   I guess based on that, we're at somewhere around 2000 pitchers and somewhere around 1000 for each of the other 8.   The issue is D1's don't recruit HS kids based on position.  They don't show go to a PG event looking for a RF....they go looking for the best player they can find and then decide where he'll fit in once he gets to college.  Typically SS, C, P and big power hitters are the guys getting recruited.  If you're one of the top shortstops in a HS class.....they know you can probably transition to 2B,3B or the OF if needbe.    Keep in mind that this is basically a guess.....but my son played with/against a lot of kids over the years in travel ball that ended up D1....I'm just basing this on what I saw.