Poll - Trout, Cabrera or other for AL MVP

Trouts numbers are great for a 10 year vet future HOF player let alone a rookie. And he's from my area. Once in generation rookie numbers. His average has slipped about 40 points the past couple of months though.

Cabrera is in the running for the triple crown and his team is making a big run.

As much as I'd like to say Mike Trout I go with Cabrera.

Trouts BA is actually .321 However, even though I'm a huge Angel fan and Mike Trout honk, I'd vote for Cabrera. I would however vote Jered Weaver as AL Cy Young.

Half the time he is on the field(defense), there are dozens of minor leaguers who are more valuable to their team than Cabrera. When he is on the basepaths there are hundreds of Major Leaguers who are more valuable to their team than Cabrera. He is way above in two catagories-RBI's and batting average which are now proven to not have the assumed value they had in 1967. There is virtually no one above Trout in either baserunning or fielding and dang few in hitting. Wins above replacement, which includes fielding and baserunning as well as hitting--Trout 10.5, Cabrera, 6.4 in tenth place in the ML's.

Three Bagger- Couldn't agree more. I don't even think this should be a close race. There has been no player as dominating as Trout since Bonds in '04. If I had a ballot, I'd go as follows:

AL Cy Young: Verlander (#2 would be Price, #3 Sale)
NL Cy Young: Kershaw (#2 would be Cueto, #3 Dickey)

AL MVP: Trout (#2 would be Cabrera, #3 Cano)
NL MVP: Braun (#2 would be Posey, #3 Wright)

I don't want anyone to feel I don't think Cabrera is a valuable player but as JH says, it truly isn't even close as to who is the MOST valuable when you look at the overall player.

AL Cy Young: David Price for me.
Lowest era with little run support. Price doesn't get a Cabrere or Trout. Longo missed half the season as well. AL MVP: Cabrera


1 David Price
TB 185.3 31 31 211.0 60 205 0 20-5 2.56
2 Justin Verlander
DET 181.3 33 33 238.1 70 239 0 17-8 2.64
3 Jered Weaver
LAA 173.0 29 29 187.2 57 141 0 20-4 2.73
4 Fernando Rodney
TB 164.9 74 0 73.1 5 74 46 2-2 0.61
5 Jim Johnson
BAL 163.0 70 0 67.2 19 41 50 2-1 2.53
6 Matt Harrison
TEX 148.4 31 31 207.1 75 128 0 18-10 3.26

frrom ESPN.go.com
7 Rafael Soriano
NYY 147.1 68 0 65.2 16 67 42 2-1 2.19
8 Chris Sale
CHW 143.7 30 29 192.0 65 192 0 17-8 3.05
9 Felix Hernandez
SEA 138.9 32 32 226.2 72 216 0 13-8 2.86
10 Max Scherzer
DET 137.0 31 31 183.2 78 228 0 16-7 3.82

Speaking of the triple crown, I wonder if I'm the only member of this board who watched the final two games of the 1967 season on TV and saw Yaz go 7-8 against the Minnesota Twins in the last two "had to win" games of the season. Boston was one game out with two to play. Detroit also had a chance to win in the last two days. Yaz also hit his 44th Hr that tied him for the lead with Harmon Killebrew and threw out a runner at the plate. Talk about doing it all that year!

Three Bagger- Can't say I recall...my mom was 3 years old then...

Sorry

Ouch!!!

quote:

Originally posted by Three Bagger:
Half the time he is on the field(defense), there are dozens of minor leaguers who are more valuable to their team than Cabrera. When he is on the basepaths there are hundreds of Major Leaguers who are more valuable to their team than Cabrera. He is way above in two catagories-RBI's and batting average which are now proven to not have the assumed value they had in 1967. There is virtually no one above Trout in either baserunning or fielding and dang few in hitting. Wins above replacement, which includes fielding and baserunning as well as hitting--Trout 10.5, Cabrera, 6.4 in tenth place in the ML's.

Judging one sabermetric stat is just as inaccurate as judging by one normal stat such as HR/RBI.

I'd be curious to know if you know how WAR is calculated, because the fielding and baserunning aspects of it are still very primitive. Also, CF are arbitrarily given a boost to their WAR because their position is generally worse at hitting than others.

The fielding part of WAR, called UZR, is so inaccurate that it makes the stat as a whole inaccurate. Based on UZR, Jeter went from one of the worst fielders in the game to one of the best, in the span of one offseason (and he was above the age of 35).

Edit: For the record, I agree with you that Trout should be MVP. I just don't think it can be proven by one stat.

That's true that no one stat can prove anything. I didn't mean WAR alone should be used, I was just pointing out the huge difference between Trout's and Cabrera's WAR. I just like my MVP's to at least be ML average in the field and on the basepaths. When Cabrera is doing either, he actually costs his team runs.

Uh, Cabrera just hit his 44th HR.

For MVP, it should be Rafael Soriano. He had to replace the greatest closer of all time and had the pressure to produce like Moe. He should get the MVP because without him, Yanks don't make playoffs.

For Trout vs Cabrera, this one's easy. Trout by a mile. Trout does everything while Cabrera a one dimensional player. Plus, Angels would've been dead long ago had Trout stayed in the minors.

While I know writers typically don't like to vote for Yankee players since the excuse is they should win every year, if it goes between Trout and Cabrera, then Trout has to get it.

zomby- I'm a Yankee fan too, but I couldn't disagree more about Soriano. I don't believe any reliever should ever win an MVP award. They simply haven't thrown enough innings.

However if the argument is to be made, I don't even think Soriano is in the top 2 closers in the AL this year. Rodney and Nathan have, in my opinion, had a better year. Stats indicate the same, although there is very little separation between Nathan and Soriano.

Pertaining to UZR- I completely agree. However just as an FYI, if defensive metrics are taken away from both Trout and Cabrera, the breakdown is as follows:

bWAR:
Trout- 8.3
Cabrera- 7.2

fWAR:
Trout- 53.9
Cabrera- 52.7

Even when completely ignoring the entire defensive aspect of the game, Trout is still better.

Without Cabrera, the Tigers wouldn't be going to the playoffs. He has carried them down the stretch, overtaking the White Sox.

With Trout, the Angels will not make the playoffs, as great has he has been.

If both teams didn't make it, would go with Trout.

I am not a fan of Cabrera as a person but he deserves it.

I love everything about Trout and I marvel at his play, even when he kills the Rangers.

LadsDad- I immensely disagree with your reasoning about Cabrera. A team's appearance in the postseason has nothing to do with a player's value to that team. In 2001 and 2004 Barry Bonds posted offensive numbers that are statistically similar to Trout's current numbers in terms of productivity (Bonds's numbers were slightly better than Trout's, which in and of itself is absolutely incredible). In both those years, he won MVP and in both those years, the Giants failed to make the playoffs. I find it hard to imagine anyone arguing against Bonds deserving those awards based on his performance during those seasons.

If your reasoning were to be held true throughout history in the game, then players like Ernie Banks, Brooks Robinson, Willie McCovey, Joe Torre, D-i-c-k Allen, Jeff Burroughs, Dave Parker, Keith Hernandez, Don Mattingly, Andre Dawson, George Bell, Jeff Bagwell and Ryan Howard would have never won a single MVP award.

The thought that a team's performance dictates a player's worth to the team is something I actually find humorously ridiculous. Why is it that player's fault that the other 24 guys on his team didn't perform well enough for the postseason?

Cabrera has had an unbelievable season and has been extremely valuable to the Tigers. The award, however, is for MOST Valuable Player. No player in 2012 has been anywhere near as valuable to any team as Mike Trout has been. Its not even close. Its more of a landslide than Verlander's unanimous Cy Young win last year. Trout has been A LOT better than everyone else this season.

It is all about the bat, at every level. Golden glovers have to hit to get in.

Cabrera won the triple crown today. Baseballs three most favorite offensive stats since the beginning of time(as far as I know).

Gotta go with Cabrera.

Angels have one more win than the Tigers. They just happen to be in a division with better teams. Trout has to face the better pitching staffs of Texas, Oakland, and Seattle while Cabrera gets to feast more often on KC, Cleveland, and Minnesota. Even today, Trout's four hit game came in a game which King Felix started against him and he had three straight hits against him.

RBI's weren't even a stat in the box scores until the 1920's while sacrifices were. Just because someone in 1880 thought batting average was so important that the winner of the batting average title is called the batting champion, does not mean it is correct as has been shown with modern offensive numbers.

Three Bagger- Often times I find its a losing battle trying to argue these points. People say its "old school" vs. "new school". I say its "wrong" vs. "right". The front office executives that run the teams put on the field have made it pretty clear what is important in terms of analysis, and in the end that's all that really matters when putting a winning product on the field.

I'm torn on this one. Trout is having an amazing year. He's the Ultimate Five Tool Player, and arguably the Best Defensive Centerfielder in baseball...not to mention,he's in my backyard in So Cal. With that said, if Cabrera finishes the 2012 season with the Triple Crown...you have to give him the MVP. It's going to be a tough decision either way.

Of the three, rbi, the youngest stat is 90 years old? Let us see if the other stats make it to 20 years before they are declared useless and are replaced.

Plus, it must be tough to do, when was the last one? 1967? It is a very, very rare thing and worthy of my vote every time.

quote:

Plus, it must be tough to do, when was the last one? 1967? It is a very, very rare thing and worthy of my vote every time.

Trout- 30 HR, 48 SB. Only two players have eclipsed those numbers. Eric Davis in 1987 (37 HR, 50 SB), Barry Bonds in 1990 (33 HR, 52 SB). More rare than a Triple Crown, in fact. So, in comparing apples and oranges, Trout takes the cake there too.

Batting Average is not a good indicator of overall offensive performance because it pretends plate appearances that don't count as ABs don't exist. It also negates the impact a player has in terms of slugging and baserunner, two offensive factors. RBIs are not a good indicator of overall offensive performance because it is reliant on other players' performance, which, as I noted previously with my anti-playoff-MVP argument, cannot be directly correlated with a player's value to the team.

In order, I would rate the categories of the Triple Crown as follows in terms of importance:

1. Home Runs
2. RBIs
3. Batting Average

Home runs are important for obvious reasons. RBIs are important to a team because, yes, they generate runs. But there are many more offensive statistics that allow a team to better analyze run generation and appropriately coordinate a player's value than simply the runs he has batted in over the course of a season. For the most plain and simple example: Mike Trout is a lead-off hitter and therefore has less opportunities to drive in runs than Miguel Cabrera does. Batting average is absolutely irrelevant because, simply put, OPS is a better overall offensive production indicator.

Just because the Triple Crown categories have been deemed important in the past doesn't mean they're right. Just because Miguel Cabrera has a higher batting average, more RBIs and more home runs than Mike Trout doesn't make him a better hitter. The evidence is blatantly obvious.

I don't know how else to make this argument.

Mike Trout is the most valuable player in the American League in 2012, BY FAR.

By sheer luck runs scored could have been substituted for RBI's in the triple crown. They too, depend somewhat on other player's contributions. If a person has ever studied baseball history, they will find out that such terms as Triple Crown or Batting Champion were coined by some sports writer of years gone by and took on a greater importance than they truly have. RBI's and batting average are fun numbers to look at but that does not mean they define the most important offensive contributions that the Triple Crown would have you believe. Cabrera's triple crown is no different than about six or seven of Pujol's seasons yet at least Albert could run the bases and field his position.

I've noticed no one that picks Cabrera for MVP ever gives any concrete or arguable reason outside of the leadership in those three catagories and statements like " he's out there everyday producing, or teams fear him, or Detroit wouldn't be the same team without him". Show me something that proves he is the MVP over Trout, not obtuse statements.

Everybody has their opinion but to say this race shouldn't even be close when one is going to win the triple crown is just silly. 45 years since the last one and he shouldn't compete for the MVP? Really?

the writers will probably take the easy path and give Trout the rookie of the year and Cabrera the MVP... 1967 is probably too steep of a hill to deny.

but Trout, holy cow his season stands among an all-time season... I spose you gotta throw Barry B's best seasons out there to rival what this guy does for his team

happy October everyone... it's time for the party to begin!!!

THe votes are close so far in our poll, as I expect they will be when the BBWAA cast their votes. By the way, it only includes the regular season.

This particular award will be interesting because of the contrast between the two.

Trout - young, table setter, west coast team, speed, outfielder

Cabrera - mature, RBI guy, east coast team, power, infielder.

The only thing they have in common is that they are both good, and I can't fault anyone for voting for either one. I would vote for Cabrera. To lead the league in HR, RBI and Batting Avg is incredible. I look at this award as an offensive award. If there were a seperate "Best All Around Player" I would give it to Trout.

Trout singlehandedly bailed out Albert Puljolts by taking all the pressure off him because he was choking big time in the beginning of the year. A 20 yr old player has to be that valuable to have the kind if season to save the season of a future hall of famer. Not too many 20 yr olds have that kind of impact on a superstar player like that. Were it not for Trout, the Angels would've been toast before the all star break

Don't underestimate Cabrera's defense and base running. While he does not have great range, he does get to the ball better than most people will give him credit for. He also has good hands with a very strong/accurate throwing arm. He is actually very athletic for his size and has a high baseball IQ which helps him make-up for his lack of speed on the bases. "Baseball people" who watch him everyday appreciate him as more than just a hitter. He will also give you a productive at bat and hit behind the runner to try help his team score runs. Trout has had a great year...but it's one year...Miggy puts up these numbers EVERY year...He is the MVP and if he was playing in NY or LA nobody would question it.

You can't deny a Triple Crown winner as MVP. Trout will have an awesome career, starting with an incredibly well-deserved ROY. Plenty of time for his MVP accolades.

rebel- I'm a "baseball person" who has watched Miggy play a whole lot of games this year. Making the fundamental play is expected of a Major League player, and yes, he has the ability to make the fundamental play. But I would be very hesitant to say that he "gets to the ball" better than most people give him credit for. According to defensive metrics, he is the 131rd best fielder in the AL for players with over 500 plate appearances. For reference, there are 146 position players in the AL with over 500 plate appearances. That's the 10th percentile.

Having a high baseball IQ doesn't win you the MVP Award. Neither does winning the Triple Crown. Being the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER wins you the Most Valuable Player Award. And in 2012, there is no one that is even on the same planet as Mike Trout in terms of value. This MVP vote should be unanimous. Mike Trout is the MVP.

I'm no longer responding on this thread until anyone can come up with a valid reason for Miggy's deserving of the MVP. Obtuse responses that say "you have to give it to him because of the Triple Crown" or "his team made the playoffs" are not valid reasons to dub him the league's most valuable player. I have yet to see a single argument anywhere, whether its the HSBBWeb or anywhere else, that provides a valid argument why Cabrera deserves it over Trout.

Was 2012 a great offensive year for Miguel? Yes. A historic year. He is almost certainly the best hitter in the game right now. But he was not the most valuable player in the AL this year. Mike Trout was. This award is not for the "best player on playoff teams" or the "player that can drive in the runners that reached base before him" or the "best hitter in the league". This award is the Most Valuable Player. Mike Trout is just that. Plain and simple.

JH-"Fundamentally Speaking"...In my opinion...it is a heck of lot harder to field a ground ball and make an accurate throw than to catch a fly ball.

I am glad that you decided that you were "no longer responding on this thread until anyone can come up with a valid reason for Miggy's deserving of the MVP" because obviously your opinion is MORE VALUABLE than anyone else's. "Plain and simple."

quote:

zombywoof said...For MVP, it should be Rafael Soriano. He had to replace the greatest closer of all time and had the pressure to produce like Moe. He should get the MVP because without him, Yanks don't make playoffs.

Zombywoof - Your Yankee "homerism" is shining through. If I was going to awared an MVP just among the Yankees, I'd have to give it to Hiroki Kuroda. He's been Mr Reliable for them this year in the games I've watched....and yes, I will catch a few innings of a Yankee game with the volume muted. Kuroda has been clutch in some big games.

Saw a funny "tweet" earlier that I'm going to borrow and relate here;

Among The "American" League MVP Candidates are Trout, Darvish & Cespedes. Interestingly, Cespedes is from Cuba, Darvish from Japan and Trout is from "another world!"

And, of course, Cabrera who wasn't mentioned but will likely win.

quote:

Originally posted by fenwaysouth:

quote:

zombywoof said...For MVP, it should be Rafael Soriano. He had to replace the greatest closer of all time and had the pressure to produce like Moe. He should get the MVP because without him, Yanks don't make playoffs.

Zombywoof - Your Yankee "homerism" is shining through. If I was going to awared an MVP just among the Yankees, I'd have to give it to Hiroki Kuroda. He's been Mr Reliable for them this year in the games I've watched....and yes, I will catch a few innings of a Yankee game with the volume muted. Kuroda has been clutch in some big games.

Kuroda has been very pedestrian the last month. He kept Yanks in games but mothing spectacular. He's been steady and keeping Yanks in ballgames but hardly spectacular. Soriano has had a bigger impact since getting promoted to closer

Since Cabrera's chances for winning the MVP is based on whether he gets the triple crown, it would stand to reason that if Hamilton out-homers him or Trout finishes with a higher BA, then the obvious choice would be Trout.

I'm pulling for Trout, but both he and Cabrera are deserving.

One thing that people don't seem to mention is the Prince Fielder affect on Cabrera. In 2011 Cabrera walked 108 times, this year 66 times. Not to mention the pitches he saw because of the bat behind him in the lineup. After all, Prince is hitting .313 this year with 30 HRs and 108 RBI. Makes you wonder what the numbers would look like if they flipped them two in the batting order.

BTW, if Cabrera wins the MVP award, this will be two years in row, two different leagues, two different teams, that the League MVP hit right before Prince in the batting order.

That said... I'm pulling for Trout!

Cabrera - Count Prince Fielders #'s for him too since he moved to 3rd so they could sign him.

I'm a Tiger homer!!! I say Cabrera!!!

Because of the outdated way many people think about this, in general and on this board is why we have MVPs like Jeff Borroughs, Andre Dawson with his .315 OBP, and Morneau when he isn't even the most valuable player on his team when he won the award. It's always some slug of a first baseman, third baseman or broken down knees outfielder who leads the league in RBI's. Of course most of these guys do this by hitting a lot of HRs too. They can't do anything else that helps a team win but "sure are clutch hitters". Of course when you bat third or fourth on a team and have a guy or two hitting .300 in front of you, you seem to be more "clutch" that year also.

Most people would vote for Cabrera whether his lines were .329/.393/602 or .329/.339/.602 with the same 44-137-.329 that he has now because they don't dig deep enough to see that those numbers describe a very different player in overall value. They ignore that half the time he is on the field, he actually hurts his team. Actually anytime he is out of the batters box, he is nothing special. I will agree that he has assumed Pujols' mantel as the best hitter in the game but it isn't his RBI total that proves this. You need to go deeper than than a freak combination of two outdated stats and HRs.