The average pitching speed at age X is this!

Keep in mind that, while PG is a fantastic source  on recruit commits, they can only report what they know of. Offhand, I can list a dozen commits that don't show up on PG. Best guess is that they only list about 1/2. For example, look at the commits for some of the lower D1 schools and D2 schools. Often, even looking at the 2015 and 2016 classes you will see almost no commits and, obviously that can't be true. They just happen to be commitments that PG doesn't know about.

It is true and well pointed out that it is a business.  

For the coaches.  There is a reason a 7th or 8th grader cannot make business decisions for him or herself legally.  I just see nothing good coming of this.  A kid may very well get a bloated sense of entitlement and or be crushed when 2 years later the coach/team that was kissing his rear is longer interested.  

A lot of parents don't know.  Most kids don't know.  Coaches, be it travel ball, college or whomever seem more than happy to lead them on.  It is a business, but, being disingenuous with the interests and future of a kid who is not old enough to drive is maybe the most pathetic business model I have ever heard of.  

One of the main issues (just my opinion, which I am happy to verbally vomit on this thread) is baseball as a whole is very bad at developing talent or players.  If coaches were good at developing players they would not need to over recruit to the level that is commonly done....they would not have to hang a carrot out in front of a 13 year old.  

Promises made to children (which is how most kids/parents will likely perceive them) which are likely pretty empty are reflective of the vapidness that is common in baseball.  

Lots of bluster, little substance.   

From my son's perspective, as a 2017 (junior) that just turned 16, he is just now starting to understand what he wants, as far as a college choice. I can't say how happy I am that he never wanted to pursue any of the early interest. I supported him in that approach. He'll be fine. I know that much.

This is a great post, as well as Goosegg's follow up.  It didn't say "don't worry about it", it explained why.  With a 2020, I want to understand.  That's why I'm here.  And my ADD, inability to focus on work, etc.

 

Goosegg, as well as having a great screen name, thanks for the informative responses.

Keep in mind that we're talking about two different things when we speak of "early recruitment" and "early commitment." The former doesn't necessarily entail latter.

       
       
I think for my son - 14u next year - it has done a.couple things.  First it gives him confidence that he is tracking ok.  And second knowing whats above him (we gun about everyone) motivates him to keep working to get to their level.  He may or may not get there but being informed and working toward a goal keeps him going.  He has an incredible work ethic with his cressey style workouts.  Our ultimate goal is 80 next year but will take about anything upper 70's.   I just don't believe falling too far behind is ever a good idea.  Are there some kids who throw 65 as a freshman and 90 as a senior?  I am sure there are.  I am equally sure it is rare.  I just firmly believe its never too early to start tracking and working.  As for the recruiting process as others have said it starts when you are personally good enough for it to start.  But I would think if junior year is the first year its not a great sign.  Again many exceptions I am sure but I would think most good D1's are at least having conversations by sophomore year.  And I also agree can't worry about the 8th grade and freshman commits.  They are the freaks of nature.  You don't have to be that advanced to eventually play at your goal level.

I also say it's never too ealier ! To see what your options are , and  see what your son wants to do and how he reacts to the attention , i know for my 2019  I'm exposing him to it now to see if he's ready , and I can say now he is ready with just the few camps and showcases he has been invited to here in the Midwest , because we know that it should be snowing right now here and warmer state kids do have a advantage over Midwest kids . So putting you kids name out there is not a bad thing if he can back it up .

But if you are recruited early and KNOW that you are unwilling to make a decision, there is no need to move towards early commitment. Does the school move on?  Of course.

There are no regrets where my son (and I) are concerned. Things will work out for the best.

       
       
Chicago area?

Sorry to chime in so late in this thread after it has gone in a different direction, but I feel obliged to point out that "average pitching speed at age x" could be the least useful piece of information a player or parent could have.

 

Who cares what average is? Average doesn't advance to the next level.

 

As a practical matter, "average pitching speed" means a velocity insufficient to play at the next level, whether that next level is high school JV, MLB, or anywhere in between (with exceptions for a few pitchers with unusual command or stuff).

 

Why spend time nailing down a measure of failure?

 

A more useful measure would be an indication of where a player's velocity compares with the velocity usually needed to compete at the next and ultimate levels he's aiming for.

 

I think MidAtlanticDad had a similar idea in mind when he said these comparisons don't matter until recruiting begins.

 

As to when college recruiting begins, it begins for each player when he demonstrates there is a reasonable likelihood he will be able to help a college team win games. Could be 9th grade, could be 11th grade. Could be earlier, could be later. Could be never.

Swamp, very true and good points.  These numbers are a range and I agree some of these numbers seam a bit low.   But the original point as I understood it was why know these numbers at all before age 16.  That is what I do not believe is accurate.  If you wait til 16 to see where you fit it may just be too late.

yes !!!!!

For 2020's through 2018's a school isn't going to move on to the next freshman/soph because a kid isn't ready to commit. Not the way they would with a 2016 or 2017. When they offer a kid that young, it is because they are exceptional and not because they have a roster spot opening. They'll want you to keep in touch if you're not yet ready. Progress as they think you will and they'll still be interested.

       
       
welcome!  Me too.  Joliet to be precise.  Some great baseball in the chicago area.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "wait."

 

If  you use "wait" to describe being less than wholly committed to getting big enough, strong enough, and good enough to play in college, I would definitely agree that waiting until you are 16 will be too late for most players. 

 

However, if you use "wait" to mean not attending showcases or trying to attract the interest of coaches before your velocity is plausibly near the usual threshholds for being recruited at the level of college where you want to play, I would respectfully disagree. Waiting until you are nearly there may be better than going out of your way to prove you're not yet a prospect.

 

I think some here would also be surprised at what average velocities actually are because all you see are top level travel and large classification high school. I'll use high school as an example. I sit behind the plate for every game at my school's 3A games (out of a 5A classification system). We have one of the powerhouse programs in our classification. We had, last year, two seniors throwing in the mid to upper 80's and my freshman son throwing lo-to-mid 80's. However, the entire year playing against 3A and 4A schools, I clocked exactly ONE opposition pitcher in the 80's and he was topping out at 81. My guess at the median for games I watched was around 74.

nice, I just PM you

       
       
I think we are on the same page.

It is amazing how many disagreements evaporate when we take the time to clarify what we mean. Thanks for your patience.

       
       
root, great points and something to always keep in mind.  As I have mentioned before I constantly have to remind my son of that.  He sees these kids throwing 80 or near there as 13's and thinks he is behind.  But he is seeing some of the best of the best.  80 at 14 is still plenty ahead of the curve.  Hopefully he will be there or close to there next year and I think that is as good a reason as any to track where you are.  We don't often think of it that way.  We always think of chasing the guy ahead of you - which is good - but sometimes we have to stop and smell the roses and realize there are far far more behind!

 

How about this scenario, a RHP 9th grader is throwing 82mph.  He commits to a local D1, and by his senior year he is hitting 89.  One of his classmates was a late bloomer, but hit 89 his senior year.  Both have the same control and could be twins.  Would it be safe to say the kid who committed in 9th grade has the better shot of his scholarship being honored than the just hit 89 kid has at getting a D1 scholarship?

oooh this just got good!!lol,

 

I was say maybe the kid who commited in 9th grade cause they have a relationship with him and his family and watched him the last few years , or maybe not lol

       
       
caco the issue I see with this scenario is I don't think 82 as a freshman is anywhere near what a D1 would want to see to accept an early commit.  May or may not keep an eye.on him but I think you have to be at least upper 80's regardless of age.

You can find plenty of kids committed to high D1 programs as freshmen/sophs only presently throwing 84-86. I just happened on one kid we used to know here in Colorado who moved to California after 8th grade. he committed to Arizona State last year as a 2018. He was throwing, according to PG, 77 at the time. Even now, I don't see any place that shows him ever getting above 83. 6' 3" LHP.

82 and 86 are worlds apart.  If you saw those two side by side you would swear there is a lot more than 4mph difference.  Every 2mph is huge.

I know. I was responding to your suggestion that, at any age, upper 80's was necessary for an offer.

Oops, originally got my Arizona's mixed up.

 

ASU has sort of a unique PC. He is a former pro player who (LHP), IMO, has one of the finest approaches to evaluating, teaching and preparing pitchers for college and the next level. If the kid was recruited by ASU, their PC saw a tremendous amount of potential development. (I don't know if roots example was of a kid recruited by the new or prior coaches, however)

 

ASU is sort of unique when compared to most other programs with their philosophy of developing pitchers (this may be the first year the new coaches have had a chance for their own recruiting class).  The philosophy (carried over from Indiana where they started) is "if they were good enough to recruit, they're good enough to develop." Even using the crop of pitchers left over from the prior administration, I believe ASU had five pitchers taken in the first ten rounds of last year's draft. 

In the FWIW category just looked up PG avg and too velo for 13u (2020) through 2017 (after soph season). 
      
2020   avg 68   high 91
2019   avg 72   high 92
2018   avg 76   high 93
2017   avg 78   high 95

Interesting how the studs are studs early on and level off some.  Giving credence to my thoughts that its not a race - as long as you get there!

I see you edited as I was typing that very response. Yeah, the Arizona situation is interesting. An ex-girlfriend of mine has a soph catcher son at Arizona, so they're a little worried.

2020dad, I think you might have missed this post yesterday by PGStaff, apparently the PG numbers are a bit flawed in the older groups, but he's going to look into.

 

Posted By PGStaff

---

 

At the risk of sounding stupid, I never thought about the PG percentages using an earlier year velocity with a current year average.  Often wondered why some of the averages seemed so low.  Especially after watching so many kids pitch and seldom seeing a pitcher below the 50 percentile.

 

I think that is something we need to fix in order to provide a truer picture of what we are seeing.  It certainly can't tell us what the true average is of all 2016 grads that attend PG events, when we are using what many of 2016's threw in 2013 or 2014.  Need to check that with our tech guys.

Nope didn't miss that at all.  But in these younger ages I think it is probably more accurate.  For example a 2019 is more than likely on their first showcase/tournament.  And honestly if they are going to do it at age 13 they will more than likely do it again at 14.  When we get to the 2017's perhaps some of that comes into play.  But I would be willing to guess numbers for 2020 and 2019 at the very least are pretty accurate.  And those jive pretty well with what I find as well  gunning at least a couple hundred pitchers a year at my son's tournaments.

CaCO,

Saw your answer to my question this morning, decided to see what responses you would get.

Pretty good stuff here, but I give Goosegg an A+ in regards to his responses.

 

What you are experiencing in your area is not unusual for other areas , mostly in warmer weather states, for someone to be out watching young baseball players earlier than in the northern cold weather states.

 

Unfortunetly these early commits get folks a bit anxious, thinking that their players are going to miss out.  

 

Personally, I place no significant reason to commit as a middle school age player.  Its not in a players best interest. I know that you don't like hearing this, but when your son begins to get serious interest you will get it. Its so much more than "yes I wanna come play at your school".  Lots of these commits are a result of children coming from alumni families.  You just don't know all of the facts. 

 

I will never forget when the ml area scout came to visit son before the draft. He knew EVERYTHING about son. He said he had been watching him and reporting to coaches on him for years.  The only difference between then and now, most parents I knew as myself refused to have their players commit until they became more responsible. We folks held the cards back then. 

 

You can't even offer an 8th grader $$ can you? So what's in the commitment?   

 

I actually think many of you would enjoy the ride so much more if you concentrated more on your own players and their journey rather than what everyone else is doing that probably won't matter anyway.

 

 

 

A big +1 right there.  They only play HS once.  Only one go around with travel.  My son will be in college in less than 2 years and I'm missing him already.

 

       
       
I think there is room for both.  I can assure you I do enjoy every minute of it.  The other thing you have to entertain is looking at the competition is fun too.  My son will sometimes come over and get the pocket radar cause someone on diamond #whatever is throwing smoke.  Its like a fun hobby.  When you love baseball and love pitching it is super entertaining to watch somebody who is really good at it.  Not like you always live in fear or envy of the guy who is better.  Sometimes it is just pure magnificence to watch.  And then when its over your son walks away with a goal.

2020dad,

I think you missed my point, but I get yours.

Today, someone posted asking if their 14 year old was on track with their stats.

More than often lately, people of players not yet in HS  post about rankings and ratings, concerns voiced over velocities and arm speed, pop

times and 60 yard times from pre HS players parents kind of makes me sad because I feel people are missing out of enjoying the best time in their players lives.  I very rarely ever read about how their players are doing in the classroom, yet so many mention about 8th graders committing.

 

Ridiculous isn't it, 8th graders committing and have not yet taken one HS test?   Or wait, who contacted who and where?  There are rules as to when where and how a player can be contacted.  So you are telling me an 8th grader took the initiative to contact a college coach or was it mom or dad?

 

Come on folks, you can do better than that. You shouldn't have to stress about this stuff because realistically, for most, interest will show up at the door when the NCAA allows that to happen.

TPM, I can clear up some of this for you.  The 8th graders and their parents are not contacting the schools...initially.  There was one case locally where an 8th grader did list on their PG profile the colleges they were interested in and one of them got in contact, but the typical scenario locally is:

1. Player plays in a major tourney, might be PG or Super NIT, but someone saw the kid.

2. The coach at the local college is notified that player XX on team XX should be looked at.

3. The HC does a quick google search for team XX, he then finds the website complete with players names, number, and the travel ball coaches contact info.

4. HC calls the travel ball coach asks about player XX, if he likes what he hears he says "Have XX call me on Sunday at 12pm, here is my cell phone number.  Have him send me a text right before he calls so I know to pick up.

 

Nothing in that is against the rules, and it is becoming a common occurrence around these parts.  By the time contact from a coach is allowed according to the "rules" they have already been in contact with the player via HS or Travel Ball Coaches.  The "team" websites typically appear around 12u that contain the player information and coaches phone number.

 

 

After your son has spent a couple of years in HS, make sure that you hop on here and tell us what you've learned over the next couple of years.  Focus on TODAY.  About getting better in school or baseball TODAY.  I understand having goals, and I agree with them, but people lose sight of the fact that every single pitch in a baseball game demands focus on that moment in time.  The NOW.  You can't think about your last at bat or tomorrow's game.

 

CaCO, I say this with all of the love and respect that I can, as I enjoy your posts, stop worrying about what others are doing.  And don't think too far into the future, or you'll miss your son's childhood.  

 

TPM we are in complete agreement on the college part.  As a coach there is nothing worse than a.parent coming up to 'inform' you about all their kid can do for you.  In one ear and.out the other.  I can't imagine it would be much different for a college coach.  I would guess you would just irritate them.  I will never contact a college coach on behalf of my son.  I also fully agree 8th grade is too early to be committing even if you are that good (my son is not).  Totally agree a kid that age can't be sure he won't change his mind and then be in a messy situation.  Agree with the fact there is not much you can do about it anyway cause the college recruiting will begin when they want it to begin not when you want it to begin and there is nothing other than making yourself seen that can change that.  The only thing I can't agree with is tracking the numbers.  But I think we see this differently.   And of course the only perspective I can really come from is that of me and my son.  For us (yes I said us) it is not about pressure it is fun.  And motivating.  Every time he gets another mph on swing speed, exit velocity or pitch speed it is bigger and more exciting for him than a trophy would be.  He gives those to his younger brother and sister.  But reaching that next milestone is precious.  It gives him confidence and motivation, not pressure.  It doesn't destroy the fun it enhances it.  Again I can only relate personally to our experience but thats the way it is for us.

I will come back on here in 2017 and post what I have learned.  I know that my opinion on several things have changed over the last couple years.  As much as I make y'all roll your eyes with the crazy non-nonsensical things I say about an 8th grader you can rest assured that I am paying all your advice forward.

 

I just got done on our local board telling the 10u parents that they were insane to drive 1.5 hours 2x per week to attend practice at the super special elite program and that at 10u it should be about family time and less about trying to get elite training because when the puberty stick hits their kid everything changes. 

 

So see, y'all at least taught me THAT much! *cough/avert eyes* and my kid may have grown 10 inches in the last 14 months, and now everything is different,

 

I think you missed my message. I know how it works, but its all driven by the adults.  

 

Also, posting the details on how this all works and posting on local boards just tells me you are too wrapped up with youth baseball.  What does it matter if parents want to spend money and time schlepping their 10 year olds hours away to play. You take the knowledge you have learned and use it to make your child's experience better.  

 

That was my message. Sorry that you missed it.