The average pitching speed at age X is this!

A guess on your 14/15 question.....kids moving into puberty/growth spurt at different ages.

I think you need to look at how these figures are sourced (individual pitching coach - recording day 1 speeds).  I would say the population is rather small and many of these day 1 speeds are recorded before any significant instruction on good pitching mechanics.  Go back and look at the "goal" speed for these ages - quite a bit higher than these averages.  I think the small population and how data gets captured (new student - day 1 pitch speed) may have something to do with the 14/15 sppeds not showing significant movement.  If you are looking for averages, I'd go try to find something that taps into a much, much larger population.  As for the older kids, I think the PG percentiles by class is a pretty good measuring stick.

I think the PG percentiles are more skewed than even this board when it comes to "averages".  I don't think the local Podunk ball team consisting of "average kids" pays $1000 to enter into the PG tourneys, I think they attract the best of the best, frankly because they ARE the best at what they do.

 

According to my 2020's profile the average 2020 is throwing 68, best is 90!  Yup, 8th grader throwing 90!

 

 

 

 

 

There is no way to determine an average....you are talking about hundreds of thousands of kids.  People point to outliers for some sort of frame work....a 15 year old throwing 88 is exceptionally rare as is a guy in college throwing 74 in college and having success.  Both exist but neither is anything but an outlier.  The average speed of a high school junior starting pitcher can be quit different in Los Angeles vs a small town in North Dakota.  So, there is no real way to determine an average....people can only look at what is directly around them.  

Once a kid is approaching physical maturity (say 15 or so) one can get a decent idea of where they are.  Throwing 65, you are slow, throwing 85 you are fast.  How guys develop, train, grow ect all play a role.  I have seen guys be soft tossers until they were half way through college and then pick up 9 mph.  I have seen plenty of pitchers who were bigger and stronger and more physically mature growing up, dominating youth ball and JV ball and by their senior year of high school everyone else caught up and there were not even a starter.  Some guys gain velocity on a slow and steady path, 2 mph like clock work, some make jumps and long platues, some just sort of stay where they starter. 

It is interesting to talk about but I would not worry about comparing oneself to specific outliers.  See where you are against the kind of standard measures if you will.  

I find John's numbers fairly close.  And I think when he says range he is speaking more about the range of average.  My experience gunning pitchers along the way is 60 is really good at 11, 65 at 12, 70 at 13.  Then l Ike leftside suggested it gets a little murky.  Those who have fully matured - and there are some - at age 14 might throw 85.  Those that haven't even started may be stuck at 65 to 70.  Once you hit those maturation years its so hard to predict.  But I think in general if you want to be a recruit you need to be 80mph after freshman year and 85 after sophomore year.  But ultimately if you can be upper 80's by senior year it really doesn't matter how you get there.

I would suggest that the PG class percentiles are not the "best of the best".  Class of 2017 is showing a best of 95 (outier) with an average of only 78.  That would imply that there are lots of 2017's throwing slower than 78 - but can also be the result of some prior year's speeds being pulled forward.  There can be a pretty wide age range in these classes (upwards of 24 months from youngest to oldest), but PG does help demonstrate the pretty side range.  You can look up individuals and start to get an idea where the 70th, 80th, etc. percentiles sit.  I'm not saying the 50% of 2017's throwing slower than 78 are highly successful (many of these may have stopped pitching altogether years ago but still have old speeds tracked) but they do represent some very average players who happen to throw at PG events.  There may be some data set elsewhere that may be better - and the data you can readily access off of the PG site is limited, but if you poke around enough on PG, including looking up individual players and scanning tournament pitching speeds, you do start to get a feel for a class' speed on the high end and low end.  I always figured something around 75% percentile meant you were hanging in there from a speed standpoint.  Looks like 82 (both RHP and LHP) appears to be the 75% for current 2017's.  

Very valid point that I had not thought of.  If a 2020 did a PG event in 2015 and never does another one, when the year is 2020 his 68mph will still be used in the averages for that year.

I would also suggest that in addition to absolute age, one take into account the kid's voice (high/low) and the coarseness of his whiskers.  If seen 15yo's with full beards singing backup to the Oak Ridge Boys and I've seen others who shave by having their cat Whiskers lick their chin and may still have a shot with the Vienna Boys Choir.  I'm thinking something around 17 is when much of this truly equalizes.  As for the speeds for the 11-13 group, I'm not sure this matters at all.  I think the best pitchers at that age are the ones who seem to have a knack for pitching - who have no problem with a kid crowding the plate or having a runner on first.  

CaCO3Girl - As I understand it, the old data stays in place forever.  That is why I had started to scan the tournament pitching speeds where every recorded pitcher has his top speed posted (requires subscription).  I do thinkg the 2017 average of 78 is a little misleading and I would image the folks at PG (and others that may have access to the full data set) can filter out the old data and get averages for pitching speeds captured during the previous 6 or 12 months (all top speeds appear to be time stamped).

In looking at my 2019's class percentile rankings, I've been thinking that this still represents an early view - only a small number of his class has actually been gunned at this point. So I've also looked at some 2016s and 2017s for comparison. It didn't occur to me that these percentiles would include throws from 2016s and 2017s when they were freshman (or before?).  It would seem logical that PG's class percentiles would drop measurements over a year old or so.  And, drop previous measurements for a player when he's gunned later.  How does this work?

 

My understanding is that the system at PG, at the free level, works on an if then computation. 

 

IF you are the class of 2016, and you have a data point (pitching speed/pop time/60 time) THEN you get included into the averages...even if that data point was from 2012! I think as 2017 said, in order to eliminate the extra data you would need a paid subscription.

 

My son did a PG event at 12u and there was a team from Texas that had 5 pitchers all pitching over 75mph, and 2 hitting over 80!  These were NOT normal 12 year olds!

I understand why the guy tallied up the numbers, because almost everyone wants to know how they compare to their peers, but does it really matter?  What would a person do with this information, quit pitching? Until you enter into the recruiting process, I don't see how it matters for the average kid. I do have a problem with his "Your goal should be" numbers. Generalizing a max velo based on age when younger than maybe 16 doesn't make sense to me... too many variables.

 

As far as the 14/15 years, my guess is that he doesn't have enough samples to make that statistically significant (could not find his raw data). Most kids are going to gain a few mph most years (but not all) as they develop physically. Note the max for 16 to 18 jumps 12 mph, but I doubt that many kids do that either.

As for "until you enter into the recruiting process"...there is a bit of a debate on when that actually is!

 

LOL, I have said for awhile now that the person who opens up an assessment shop for 6u-12u would make a killing in the Atlanta area!  I almost didn't include the numbers below 14u, but I figured it would be good for a laugh. Right now on the local threads they are talking about 10u baseball teams who recruit players from out of town and state...I wish I were kidding!

 

We plan to gather enough data over the next 5 years in most every age group that it may actually be meaningful in some ways.

 

The numbers in the article were based on the kids the writer has seen.  So it is a very small sampling and explains why the range and growth numbers are what they are.

 

At the risk of sounding stupid, I never thought about the PG percentages using an earlier year velocity with a current year average.  Often wondered why some of the averages seemed so low.  Especially after watching so many kids pitch and seldom seeing a pitcher below the 50 percentile.

 

I think that is something we need to fix in order to provide a truer picture of what we are seeing.  It certainly can't tell us what the true average is of all 2016 grads that attend PG events, when we are using what many of 2016's threw in 2013 or 2014.  Need to check that with our tech guys.

If you do start lopping off some old data, make sure you announce it ahead of time.  Basically everyone's percentile will fall when the guys that got gunned 2-3 years ago throwing 67 and never pitched again are excluded.  There could be some bruised egos when a kids percentile falls from 85% to 70%.  

 

On a serious note, there is no telling what findings and observations you could make with the data.  As Midatlanticdad mentioned, exactly what a single individual would do with that data is not real clear, however in a macro sense, there could be some good findings which could prove useful.

What's the debate? You've entering into the recruiting process when someone starts recruiting you.  

 

LOL, that simple huh?  Sorry, sore spot.  I know of four 8th graders with offers, and I know of 2 talented 2016's with nothing on the table.  I think if you have a kid that gets an offer, in ANY grade, you should immediately head to Vegas because your family is obviously VERY lucky!

well my son just turned 15 and is  a freshem, he just maxed out @ 89mph arm velo this week, along with 86mph bat exit speed from both sides of the plate ,

 

its all in the hard work , and my son is not a big kid

c2019,

 

I'm sure your son works hard, but there are thousands of kids that work extra hard and will never be able to throw a baseball 89 mph.

 

Point is, your son has some great natural ability.  Maybe good genes! I'd guess he is not the only one in the family that has or had a great arm.

 

Do we (PG) know who he is, yet?

 

have fun

PG Staff,

 

I have reached out to Greg, and we have chatted on email. genes? maybe when I played in my younger days I threw hard but never like he does for his age, but I also never let any coach put him to pitch until now, now that he has developed, I always stayed away from the cookie cutter coaches, when coaches would say slow down , I would say blow it up and hit the back stop .just like swinging , people would laugh when he would fall down cuz he swung so hard, looks who laughing now.lol

C2019,

 

Thanks, Greg is the guy to talk to.

 

I just get kind of nosey when I hear about 15 year old kids throwing 89 mph. Would be fun following him for the next few years.  Best of luck

 

BTW, I will take natural ability over cookie cutter mechanics everytime. IMO, The best coaches develop the mechanics that work best without taking away any of the natural ability.

 

 

The recruiting timeline begins about the same for most, but there are a few that get early offers, and they are what they are, offers. Maybe its who they know, maybe their folks are alumni (very very common) but reality is that nothing means a darn thing until they get signed,  then set foot on that campus or drafted well.

 

JMO

 

Listen I live in Florida and when my son was younger he was getting calls about joining teams. Yes, he had special gifts when he was as young as 9-10, but its all in how hard you work as you grow and mature to make those special gifts turn into a valuable scholarship or a draft prospect later on.

 

"My son did a PG event at 12u and there was a team from Texas that had 5 pitchers all pitching over 75mph, and 2 hitting over 80!  These were NOT normal 12 year olds!" 

 

 

Say WHAT, Caco?????

 

TPM, I think you "sped red" my response to midatlantic.  I said "sore SPOT" as in when does recruiting begin is a sore spot for me.

I did and I deleted my response.
Why is it a sore spot with you?

 

He is 5"7 135 pounds.   Very   Athletic  and explosive .

The concept of "when recruiting begins" is a sore spot because there are such conflicting opinions on the matter from very knowledgeable people.  Notice I didn't say when OFFERS begin, but when RECRUITING begins, when does the player get on the radar?

 

It appears to me, and I could be wrong, that anyone who went through this dance 5+ years ago is very firm that recruiting begins in 11th grade, this is mirrored on the website information, and the idea of discussing such matters prior to their child making the Varsity team in High School is ludicrous and the parents must be over thinking helicopter parents. 

 

Maybe some of them/us are helicopter parents who are overthinking...but you read more and more about commitments for the class of 2020, and 2019, and 2018 has a boat load.  If there are a boat load of 10th graders committing then recruitment can't be starting in 11th grade. Are their occasional alumni outliers, sure, but if only 25% of the offers being made to 8th/9th/10th graders are being accepted, because parents are educating themselves that accepting offers that early could be detrimental, then there have to be WAY more offers than there are acceptances.  That leads me back to RECRUITING can't be starting in 11th grade. I would hazard a guess that actual recruiting is starting in 8th grade.  8th grade vs. 11th grade...that's a pretty big gap, hence the sore spot.

Baseball is the just the worst....

If a kid is getting attention in 8th grade (which is lame by the way) he is a kid that is already a stud, comparative to those around him.  Like, its not even close.  If a kid is anywhere near average at that age they will get no attention.  For the vast majority of kids the traditional model and time frame still holds true.  

These commitments mean nothing, they are verbal only and a little exploitive of the coaches involved.  If a kid doesn't develop quite as they thing, if a kid gets injured, if the coaches change, if someone better comes along in the next 4 years those offers are gone.  This is just another form of coaches casting a wide net and nothing more.  If this is a high profile program a kid runs the risk (a very real risk) of major disappointment having all their emotional eggs in one basket.  Fast forward 3 years when the college coach won't return his emails or informs him the offer no longer stands.  It would be embarrassing to me if I were in that position to offer a verbal to a kid that has not started high school yet....it just seems desperate and sort of pathetic to me.  The coach is taking no risk.  He is sort of putting the kid in a bad spot potentially.  Really dislike this trend and, as usual, this falls on the coaches.  

Baseball is full of scumbags for a lack of a better way of saying it.  

If my kid was being approached by college coaches in 8th grade I would politely ask them to come back in 3 years.  

I want to emphasize what Leftside said: the risk is entirely on the player who is recruited early (or before) the HS career has some legs.

 

i am close to several top twenty programs. Each casts its net wide and early. There is absolutely no downside risk to each program; even though every year there are multiple verbal commitments which don't ripen to NLI's, the line of other recruits simply step over the bodies of those who fell.

 

Since this is a business, I do not blame the coaches; they are paid to win. To win, they over stock their inventory (players) - much like modern day businesses over order and then withdraw orders if sales don't materialize. There is no hidden ball trick here. Parents, travel ball coaches, private instructors, and the college coaches all know the game. Of course, the player is probably the least informed - and most impacted.

 

So many variables exist between early recruitment and signing. I would argue that the early offer has implied conditions (which should be known to ANY legitmate travel ball coach, private coach, parent, etc.) which must be satisfied before the verbal offer/acceptance ripens to a official NLI. These include (but are not limited to): player continues to develop (some of this development is within the players control [e.g., work ethic], some is outside the player's control [e.g., physical growth, injury]), coaching continuity (coaches move all the time either voluntarily of involuntarily), player academics (totally in a player's control), character issues (totally within a players control), financial ability to pay the shortfall between what is offered and what will be owed (who knows the parents finances four years out), and more.

 

On top of this house of cards rests the whims of a kid whose "dream school" may change half a dozen times between eighth grade and NLI time. (Apart from my personal belief that no eighth grader can have the maturity, knowledge, or context, to label a school his ultimate dream before he has taken a HS class, a standardized test, seen the competition on the diamond, seen and compared the spectrum of college choices to match against his interests; that is not to say a kid doesn't verbalized a dream school - based upon his view as a young teenager - which is generally reinforced by parents or siblings; simply that he is not yet prepared to make the MAJOR decision of his life (at that point) - one with consequences which will reverberate for the rest of his life. The same goes for ninth graders (except they have a year of basic HS classes under their belts).)

 

So, whether you label "recruiting" as beginning in the cradle or in eleventh grade, it doesn't matter. If the program doesn't want the player, there are legitimate reasons (from the program's perspective); if the player doesn't want the program, there are legitimate reasons (from the player side). Verbal or no verbal, the player needs to press forward in the classroom, in the weight room, with his personal coaches, and on the diamond as if he has NO offers - until he graduates HS. He can never let up (and, BTW, that continues in college (where many programs have a perform or else approach) and beyond).

Great post, Goosegg.  This should be a cut-and-paste for any threads discussing early recruitment.

Implied conditions - sounds like a subject deserving its own thread.  Lots of implied conditions for which the family needs to be aware of (not all are directly related to the baseball program) and develop strategies to address in the interim.  Unfortunately the best examples will be those that rear up at the last minute and sometimes crater the deal.

There are probably conflicting opinions because the process is different for everyone. The important thing is to be prepared/educated when schools start showing an interest. For kids playing on the top teams of prominent national programs, that might mean 8th grade. For kids at the next level down, that's probably 9th or 10th grade. For kids who aren't going to play mid-major or above, you're still probably looking at 11th and 12th grade. Of course there's nothing wrong with educating yourself early. Many of us don't know what level of college ball our kids will play until the college market tells us.

 

How many Georgia 2018 commits do you know about? There are only 2 listed on the PG website. Always curious about how many people post it there.

 

Sound advice on both what these early commitments really mean and the fact that this IS a business. I would also be the first point to my child not knowing what they want for lunch let alone what they want to "be when they grow up".  However, I would like to point to the sentence that "the top 20 programs cast their nets wide and EARLY".

 

I don't condone early commitment, I think both you and Leftside are correct that it mostly benefits the school, not the player.  The point I was trying to get across is that recruitment doesn't START in 11th grade like it use to, whether kids are ready for it or not seems to be irrelevant. If your kid has high hopes of playing for that top 10 school, or that local D1, starting to get his name out in 11th grade would be a mistake, your time line has just been sped up.

My ear is to the class of 2020.  Four have been offered in North Georgia, none have committed. There was an interesting article on Prep Baseball back in April (so these kids were in 9th grade) they ranked the top 50 2018 players, why rank 9th graders you ask?

 

"11 of the top 50 prospects have pledged to top-level programs across the country, with several others sitting on offers."

 

http://www.prepbaseballreport....-Released-7016235849

Caco3Girl

 

I don't think I agree that any player misses the bus if they don't get their name out by ANY date.

 

A stud is a stud - even if he suddenly develops in his senior year. There is no mercy - until the NLI is signed; it's a business. There is always room in the inn for the overlooked pitcher who throws 93. There is no room in the inn for the pitcher who threw 80 as an eighth grader (and was "recruited") and 80 as a senior In a top twenty program (a slight exaggeration and no disrespect to the sidearmers out there).

 

A kid should go out, work hard, study harder, play a game he loves to his best ability. Because there is no enforceable commitment until late, coaches are ALWAYS looking to improve their recruiting class - even if it means having 30 freshman show up for first day of fall practice.

 

While I don't really like anecdotal stories as proving principles, S (a small kid with no noticable physical attributes) was unknown (not even playing travel ball after eighth grade, attending no PG events) until Stanford and Headfirst camps opened the floodgates for college interest. He did work hard in the conditioning area, hard with his PC, and hard on a miserable HS team. At least two hours a day virtually EVERYDAY out of sight of all traditional exposure venues. Now, I also recognize that, as Fenway puts it, luck is a major recruiting factor, S made luck easier to find him.

A lot of this is also regionalized. Florida, for instance will have a lot more of this than Colorado. My state - Colorado - is a case in point. No 2018's have committed and only two 2017's have committed as of today. That doesn't mean there isn't recruiting going on, though. I know of at least a couple of 2018's that have contact and could be committed if they so chose, but are not. However, for those that believe the facts I'm stating means you can wait until your junior year to start the process - think again. Many of the Power 5 schools are either close to filling or are done with 2017 recruiting. They have already turned their attention to the 2018 and 2019 classes. Of course, there are always spots for the elite 2016, but the later you wait, the more talent you had better bring. If you are merely "just as good" as the kid they've been in contact with and following for two years now, that ain't good enough.

I'd surmise that is is flattering to parents to talk about their kids getting offers that early and other parents in the rat race of travel ball to get a bit jealous of that etc. Travel ball about more than the kids on the field, if you believe otherwise, you are sorely mistaken.

 

I also believe that being recruited is about being pursued by more than one school. When you can honestly say you have other offers, you have the ability to negotiate. Otherwise as stated so eloquently above, the school has the upper hand until the NLI is signed, which isnt until the fall of a kid's senior year.

 

My son threw to a kid in HS who could have been one of those early recruitment outliers...probably could have committed to a Power5  in 7th grade....i know 8th grade for sure (if the school was into that) and actually verballed in 9th grade before a HS game was played. All for not now, as he is a millionaire in the minors and we'll probably see him on TV soon playing in the MLB.

 

I say congrats to any and all who get those early offers and exposure. I suggest that no one should take them and continue to work towards the traditional "recruitment periods" to find the best offer but to each his own.

 

 

MidAtlanticDad - my son is 2018 here in Atlanta, and can say similar response as CaCO3Girl.  

 

Alot of the kids my son has played with over the years have offers + a few ex-teammates have committed (but have yet to update their PG profile).

 

I spotted add'l updates while I was posting re: missing the bus, and being too late.  Ultimately what I've gleened from all the folks on the board that are far more experienced than I is.....  each situation is unique, and ultimately depends on what your son wants - versus generalizatons

 

I greatly value input from Fenway & other posters because their kids sound similar to mine, who is interested in High Academic, where recruiting often happens later so the kids can prove themselves academically thru HS + testing.  In the meantime, my son works hard on his grades + game, and trains to get stronger/faster - and I try to get smarter on how all this works!