I heard a quote in tonight’s Utah- BYU football game I’m sure will apply to baseball.
Utah coach … We used the transfer portal to find eight immediate impact players. It’s drastically improved our team.
This move obviously impacted freshmen recruits. Why recruit prospect boys when you can recruit established men?
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Absolutely. That’s just the reality in College Sports right now
College Freshman this year, perhaps more than ever, will need to “work while they wait”, and get into a good summer league in 2022 for the game reps and extra experience.
I’ll be interested to see how many “COVID Seniors” come back for a 6th year, as well as how many freshman get redshirted.
It is probably too early but it will be nice to see the recruitment class and transfer numbers and how much it actually changed (a feeble attempt at subtlety to Mr. Insights). We all aware of the tsunami, but I would like to know exactly how much water flooded my basement.
I've looked at SEC rosters that are published and what I can find they are bringing in as transfers and juco guys plus their recruiting class. I don't think there will be more than 1-2 freshman per team with any significant playing time including midweek games. But i also think most are missing the other misfortunes and that is the past 2 years. Most of them worked and waited and now will still be waiting because so many filled immediate voids with juco and transfer portal. For example, I will use UT's roster.
Entire starting outfield came back. I will talk what they should be not any covid years or redshirts. All will have extra year from covid unless they are sophomores or younger. 2 juniors and a fifth year. Back-up is a sophomore who had a great summer but never could break through for an entire game last year. So he or one of the starters will go somewhere batted over .400 in summer and .310 in spring.
2nd, ss, and 3rd were drafted. First baseman coming back as senior Sophomore catcher who was bullpen last year. Had a transfer catcher but he has already gone. Fifth year OF who started may move to catcher and open spot for someone. 2 juco all american shortstops transferring in along with a juco third baseman.
Pitchers
Senior RHP bullpen guy who had great year 2.82 era in 51 innings. Sophomore RHP threw 98 innings as starter throws consistently 96-98. Junior RHP 1.81 era in 34 innings. Junior LHP with 42 innings out of bullpen. Sixth year LHP with 39 innings out of bullpen. Junior RHP who sat out last year from juco will come out of bullpen over 100. Friday starter from Missouri transfer portal. Saturday starter from Georgia Southern transfer portal at 98-100. Freshman who could have been top 1-2 round guy who turned down draft was 102 last year. Plus there will be 10 guys who got limited time last year most with good numbers.
Those to fill roster:
Backup shortstop junior transferred from juco before last season.from last year who started 10 games and batted .292. OF junior who got some playing time last year and has great speed. Junior infielder who hit the cover off the ball last fall but never quite found it in the spring. Junior infielder who hit well in the spring just never could break through playing time batted .357 in spring. Senior utility player who started some at third freshman year batted .310 last year.
Mine is there are very few places for guys to land for freshmen coming in but also for the guys that are already there. Our starters and bullpen are pretty set with guys from last year and transfer portal. I'm not sure the freshman who should have been first rounder will be a starter this year. The transfer portal has allowed good guys on bad teams to leave and land on great teams. But it has shafted guys who are there working and waiting. We had several really good guys leave this summer because there was "no room at the inn."
Wow. Thank you for the breakdown...great info and depth. I have a pretty good idea what school you are at and while my kid is not good enough to play there when we drove thru the city that your team is located in twice this summer he did not even want to drive an extra 10 min to see campus and ballpark. The primary reason is the rumor he and I heard about over recruiting (rumor from a couple of others in college baseball that know more than me).
I would love to see this for several other teams...at all levels from JUCO - D1.
I have researched most of the SEC and almost all have similar numbers. Just different names. It is the nature of the beast at this point. I don't know that you can call it over-recruiting because the recruitment numbers when they were recruited were not out of proportion but when you add in the transfer portal and the larger number of juco players moving now the numbers of new guys coming in are higher than normal. But as has been said here how do you turn down a proven older guy for a college freshman that has no proven experience.
I would say the only one in the SEC that does not have these numbers is Vandy but that opens a whole different box of recruiting advantage.
@PitchingFan posted:. I don't know that you can call it over-recruiting because the recruitment numbers when they were recruited were not out of proportion but when you add in the transfer portal and the larger number of juco players moving now the numbers of new guys coming in are higher than normal. But as has been said here how do you turn down a proven older guy for a college freshman that has no proven experience.
Exactly. My D3 freshman kid was recruited to come in to compete right away for playing time because both the starting 1B & 3B were Seniors last year. Coach had no idea that both (both of them starters since their Sophomore year) would come back for a 5th year, but they both did.
So it’ll be a longer shot for my kid to get playing time as a freshman. Do I think that’s “unfair” or feel bad for him? Absolutely not!!! College Baseball is survival of the fittest, and this experience will just make him tougher. He’ll need to just work hard every day and be ready if/when opportunities come.
Plus, the coaches have had him playing 1B, 3B, RF, LF, and DH this Fall, so he’s gaining extra value with versatility and can potentially at least be depth at multiple positions.
Similar situations are happening nationwide. It’s like that for everyone.
@used2lurk posted:Wow. Thank you for the breakdown...great info and depth. I have a pretty good idea what school you are at and while my kid is not good enough to play there when we drove thru the city that your team is located in twice this summer he did not even want to drive an extra 10 min to see campus and ballpark. The primary reason is the rumor he and I heard about over recruiting (rumor from a couple of others in college baseball that know more than me).
I would love to see this for several other teams...at all levels from JUCO - D1.
Mine is at a highly ranked JUCO. First thing I've heard from friends who went in to the portal from D1's is that the top ranked JUCO's call immediately. With that comes a lot of competition. So I will try and do a similar breakdown as Pitching Fan did but I will do last year and my expectation of this year.
2021: We had four D1 transfers, but only one got significant innings and he was an SEC transfer. We had three Freshman log significant innings. In the field we had 3 D1 transfers, two ended up starting as Freshmen and they were the only two that got on the field. Everyone else was a 2nd year player or a 3rd year.
2022: We have a lot of transfers. We have four SEC transfers and three of those will start with one battling it out for the last spot. We may have a Freshman start or at least rotate at catcher. He looks like the only Freshman with a chance of playing time. On the mound we might have one or two log some innings but it will mostly be 2nd year guys with a few 3rd year guys mixed in.
It's tough out there on Freshmen. Rosters are big and playing time is hard to come by. My advice is find a place you like and be patient. Work hard and do everything you are supposed to do off of the field.
From what little I've seen and heard thus far, @d-mac 's summary above feels right. Not that going the Juco route guarantees playing time right away as a freshman, but that is one it's biggest generic selling points - that you can play right away while your peers ride the bench for their first/second years at 4-years. But given the current environment and all that has happened, it seems all but guaranteed to see less Juco freshmen seeing playing time. The extra year/s of eligibility, the transfer portal, transfer waiver, etc are all very real. We often talk about their implications in theory, but its always just a matter of time before theory gives way to actuality.
Someone was recently telling me about this...although it was soccer and not baseball. Kid trained and worked, etc. Went to a D3 school because he liked the school and really thought he had a chance at playing time because he was talented and skilled. Paid his dues as a freshman, learning, hoping to be a starter as a sophomore. But, going into sophomore year, a D1 stud fell into the program because of academic issues - and he played the same position. The resident kid then played less minutes as a sophomore than he did as a freshman. And this was all before COVID-19.
I think it's going to be a vicious cycle for a while. Kids unhappy leading to more transfers leading to more kids being unhappy and more transfers...
It's going to take a good while to wash out.
@DanJ posted:From what little I've seen and heard thus far, @d-mac 's summary above feels right. Not that going the Juco route guarantees playing time right away as a freshman, but that is one it's biggest generic selling points - that you can play right away while your peers ride the bench for their first/second years at 4-years. But given the current environment and all that has happened, it seems all but guaranteed to see less Juco freshmen seeing playing time. The extra year/s of eligibility, the transfer portal, transfer waiver, etc are all very real. We often talk about their implications in theory, but its always just a matter of time before theory gives way to actuality.
It’s always been a challenge to get on the field at the most competitive JuCo programs as a freshman position player. A realistic goal at those schools is some playing time during the first year and starter as a second year player. That’s another reason that you should always plan on JuCo being a 2 year commitment. Pitchers will almost always get more opportunities as freshmen than position players.
Ad about the "reality" of the transfer portal:
For each big stud busting through the front door of the transfer portal to lead a school to glory, there’s a couple current players crawling out the back door in tears. Or a high school recruit getting the call his scholly was pulled, but of course he could still come as a walk on.
The coach doesn’t have extra scholarships in the back of his desk drawer. It’s zero sum, and just part of the churn.
@Go44dad posted:For each big stud busting through the front door of the transfer portal to lead a school to glory, there’s a couple current players crawling out the back door in tears. Or a high school recruit getting the call his scholly was pulled, but of course he could still come as a walk on.
The coach doesn’t have extra scholarships in the back of his desk drawer. It’s zero sum, and just part of the churn.
The game hasn’t changed at all. The portal just made transferring easier and more visible. It’s the next level down that benefits the most from transfers.
From the original post I doubt premiere players are lining up to play for Utah. But when their first decision doesn’t work out Utah looks a lot more appealing. It’s a P5 and typically competitive. It’s a place to get on the field and visible for the pro draft.
The only benefit for top ranked teams is acquiring a late bloomer Covid eligibility extended or post grad player. This will be a player not good enough to leave in the draft. But good enough to compete for a starting position.
Just to re-visit this now that more 2022 rosters are being reported.
I just saw a D2 roster with this breakdown. Take a look and see what you think the odds are for those High School kids coming into the program.
Returning Varsity Players - 37
Incoming Transfers -19
Returning JV Players -21
Incoming HS Freshmen -41
Be careful, kiddos, it's the Wild West out there...
I saw a top ACC team projecting 7 starters that are transfers.
So if you need 20 players to field a team, that's about 6 teams' worth at one school. No need to play external opponents at all. That's just crazy. Even if 2/3 of the freshmen were not "recruited" in any meaningful way.
This is not breaking news, folks. This has been building since the NCAA ruling in spring of 2020.
@T_Thomas posted:Just to re-visit this now that more 2022 rosters are being reported.
I just saw a D2 roster with this breakdown. Take a look and see what you think the odds are for those High School kids coming into the program.
Returning Varsity Players - 37
Incoming Transfers -19
Returning JV Players -21
Incoming HS Freshmen -41
Be careful, kiddos, it's the Wild West out there...
They have 118 kids on the roster?
@T_Thomas posted:Just to re-visit this now that more 2022 rosters are being reported.
I just saw a D2 roster with this breakdown. Take a look and see what you think the odds are for those High School kids coming into the program.
Returning Varsity Players - 37
Incoming Transfers -19
Returning JV Players -21
Incoming HS Freshmen -41
I wonder how many players may have left the program (graduates, transfers, etc).
In this particular school, about 10 are not returning due to graduation and about 10 more due to transfers.
My kid and I have many disagreements about how the 2022's will fare. I am pessimistic given the xfer rule, reclassing and we have seen 2021s and now 2022s decomitted. The knucklehead uses one example of a local 2021 stud attending a very competitive P5 school who had major playing time as a frosh. I reminded him about unicorns and denial make a weak argument especially when there are solid data out there about xfers, reclass etc.
