Top 40 College Programs

I don't know how a team can win 50 games 2 out of the last 3 years and not be included. Coastal Carolina.

I would think TCU should be on the list. On Boydsworld.com, TCU is #31 on the Ratings Power Index and #19 on the Iterative Strength Ratings.

PGstaff, while I would propose some changes, I believe you have captured the programs that most would consider Top 40.
From my seat, I don't think California belongs. I would replace them with Pepperdine. I think Pepperdine does belong based on a very long history of being a solid, nationally ranked team year in and year out.Cal has very top talent but year in and year out has underachieved with the talent they have.
USD is power house of more recent origin.
Looking at them comparatively, both Kentucky and USD are later arrivals on the national scene. IMO, USD has done far more at a higher level so I would include USD and remove Kentucky.

I feel I would definitely have to add Coastal Carolina to that list and would consider adding Winthrop.

I think PG did a good job recognizing top programs that do make it on the scene consistantly, key word here (with some maybe having down years) which I beleive was his criteria for his top40. Not too familiar with the California teams. I think if he expanded to 50 we might see some teams considered "bubble teams" who are also in the hunt every year, TCU and maybe Fresno State?

JMO.

You have to include Coastal Carolina. That's a no brainer. I would also include TCU, and with decent seasons, I would put Houston and Sam Houston State up there as well.

Here are the top 50 rankings by ISR per Boyd Nation over the past 10 seasons. It is obviously weighted toward consistancy over that period, leaving notable current powers like Vandy and Coastal out. What is your top 40? Different criteria will get different results.

Is Michigan in there as a token big 10 team? I realize they knocked of Vanderbilt last year in the regionals, but I'm not sure about them as a top 40 program over time.

Averages for the past ten years have no bearing on what a team will do this year

As usual the bottom line is who is where at the end of the season after academic failures, injuries etc


Despite all the well meant polls and all the discussion the game still gets played on the field

quote:

Averages for the past ten years have no bearing on what a team will do this year

I agree 100%. Boyds list provides some reference to performance over a period of time, preceeding the current date, and perhaps some validity to a "top 40" list of teams. I think, but I certainly could be wrong, PG was looking for opinions of what makes a "top 40 team". Performance over a few seasons might be one measurement. Being a numbers person, I sort of like Boyds list of who is a top 40 team.

DAD04

Being a number person you certainly know that numbers can be worked and massaged to fit the formula that you want

Those numbers for 10 years do not take into account a super recruiting class this year or next

I'm not sure how relevent any recruiting class, good or bad, especially the next one, is to a list of top 40 teams. Please explain?

quote:

Originally posted by CPLZ:
Is Michigan in there as a token big 10 team? I realize they knocked of Vanderbilt last year in the regionals, but I'm not sure about them as a top 40 program over time.

I overlooked Michigan being in there and also question their being a top 40 team at this point as well as Notre Dame. Notre Dame has had some good years (with one excellent one) over the past 4-5 seasons but have also had some average ones against a moderately strong schedule. They certainly aren't one of the teams I think of when the CWS rolls around.

Jerry- USD would have to be included for lots of reasons. I think Cal has the talent to make a Super Regional. That said, I thought the same thing two years ago.

Yikes!!! I completely missed the fact that Long Beach State isn't on the top 40 list.
I think most of the coaches of those top 40 would agree they belong, especially after they play them a few times.

Due to the NCAA rule changes,I believe the top 40 list is also going change. We might be entering a new era in collegiate baseball rankings. This is just my speculation from observing the newly recruited talented players on my son's team. I have a feeling other schools could also be experiencing a rise in recruitment talent.

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InTheMit...

I'm always curious...New Era, How so?...How do you think will the rules change the top 40 mix?...and Why?

Might lead to some interesting discussion...

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I'm not sure the overall strength of an athletic program is more relevant that the performance of a baseball program. Some of the football schools, like ND, Michigan, Georgia and Tennessee could be easily replaced with baseball schools like UCI, The Dirtbags, UC Riverside and Pepperdine, imvho.

The issue I have with your rankings is the same issue I have with most college baseball publications. It's always about the major conferences and the teams in those conferences.

With the new rules that take affect next season, you will see a dash towards the middle. The safety of the easy pick by the so called experts will be much more difficult.

I believe this will make college baseball better game because everyone wants to feel like they are included and right now only a select few -(relative term) seem to be part of the overall conversation.

Observer44
What Bear Bryant did ALABAMA years ago in football, other universities were doing the same thing with baseball- grabbing every potential "PLAYER" they could. I have seen schools having several great players deep just to have them sit on the bench. Thought being, if they were to develop into something special they wouldn't have to play against them. Now that teams have limited roster numbers this kind of crimps that strategy. My son's team is benefitting from the new NCAA rules. I believe the new ruling will spread the wealth and create tighter competition with many more colleges. All I say is: "Let the games begin".

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Mitt...

Knew there was a background thought....

Seeing that right down to JC ball...players who might have stayed at the ends of DI rosters are arriving at other schools. May not hurt the over recruited programs as they will still get their studs...but it will boost a great many other programs...

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quote:

Originally posted by InTheMit:
Observer44
What Bear Bryant did ALABAMA years ago in football, other universities were doing the same thing with baseball- grabbing every potential "PLAYER" they could. I have seen schools having several great players deep just to have them sit on the bench. Thought being, if they were to develop into something special they wouldn't have to play against them. Now that teams have limited roster numbers this kind of crimps that strategy. My son's team is benefitting from the new NCAA rules. I believe the new ruling will spread the wealth and create tighter competition with many more colleges. All I say is: "Let the games begin".

I get what you are saying now.

I think that was a big practice of many sports programs years ago, one of the reasons why you see more parity in all college sports these days.

I figure I'd miss a few. Guess I didn't spend a lot of time researching this. In fact... NONE!

Kind of mad that I missed Long Beach State, Irvine, Riverside, and maybe another one or two. I agree that a few more California teams could be added. And of course USD is a top 10 type team right now.

If I were to do a top 40 as of today, it would include many different teams. But was trying to figure out what people perceive to be the top 40 overall rather than just right now. In other words the top schools that young players seem to be most interested in.

Dad04, I usually agree with you, but I really do think Michigan, Notre Dame, Georgia and Tennessee belong in the top 40 if you look at the past several years. Michigan was a big power in baseball, was down for awhile, but them along with Notre Dame and Nebraska are the top three North schools for baseball right now with Minnesota and even Ohio State maybe in the top 50 or 60. Michigan has had over 70 Major League players. Georgia actually won the National Championship in 1990 and the SEC Championship in 2001 and 2004. Tennessee has done well in National Championships and has won a couple SEC titles too. Notre Dame has played in over 80 ncaa tournament games and won the Big East title every year from 2002 thru 2006. Also played in the College World Series in 2002.

IMO there is more than how well a team does to being recognized top 40 program. Support, facilities, competition, media coverage, pumping out draft picks, etc. all play a part.

Coastal Carolina has been very good, and would be on a top 40 list of top teams over the past few years. I know it's a great program and close to home for many here, but let's face it, they went 30-27 in 2006 and they didn't play an SEC or ACC schedule. They sure were good last year and should be again this year, maybe a top 40 now, but not overall, everything considered IMO.

Winthrop... Top 40? They might be real good, but top 40 program? I just don't think of Winthrop winning many recruiting battles against the top 40 types. But they were very good a couple years ago. Last year they were 18-21 outside the Big South Conference. The Big South has the aforementioned Coastal Carolina (a power these days), Winthrop (very good), Birmingham Southern (good), VMI (good at times), Liberty (new coach and he is a good one, former assistant South Carolina), Radford, Charleston Southern, High Point (has had some success) UNC Ashville. As good as these teams are at times, this is not top 40 territory IMO. Sorry!

I'm glad someone posted Boyd's list! Think I'll go with that one instead of mine. Oddly enough I did hit 35 of his top 40. I'm sure he spent much more time figuring things out. BTW, how does Boyd figure that SOS, (ie. Oklahoma State 59 - Texas 8 - Baylor 9) Aren't they in the same conference?

Mine was just putting a list together for conversation sake. Looks like it worked!
I am a big Coastal Carolina fan, too.

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Sing it PG...sing it!




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quote:

PGStaff posted: IMO there is more than how well a team does to being recognized top 40 program. Support, facilities, competition, media coverage, pumping out draft picks, etc. all play a part.

That's an important statement that I absolutely agree with. Schools that require inclusion such as Auburn, LSU, Miss. State are supported to extraordinary levels, play in baseball palaces against some of the best teams in the country and require inclusion, regardless of their wins and losses last year.

I defer to you regarding the football schools up north. I think we'll agree that there are A BUNCH of great college baseball programs, more than 40 I think, that any player should feel proud contributing to.

Geaux Cajuns

quote:

Coastal Carolina has been very good, and would be on a top 40 list of top teams over the past few years. I know it's a great program and close to home for many here, but let's face it, they went 30-27 in 2006 and they didn't play an SEC or ACC schedule. They sure were good last year and should be again this year, maybe a top 40 now, but not overall, everything considered IMO.

Winthrop... Top 40? They might be real good, but top 40 program? I just don't think of Winthrop winning many recruiting battles against the top 40 types. But they were very good a couple years ago. Last year they were 18-21 outside the Big South Conference. The Big South has the aforementioned Coastal Carolina (a power these days), Winthrop (very good), Birmingham Southern (good), VMI (good at times), Liberty (new coach and he is a good one, former assistant South Carolina), Radford, Charleston Southern, High Point (has had some success) UNC Ashville. As good as these teams are at times, this is not top 40 territory IMO. Sorry!

To be consistent, I have always said recognition is nice but my view is the same as TRhit - it is all decided on the field... that said...

I was going to stay completely out of this but with all due respect PG, you don't seem to know a lot about Coastal or the Big South yet I had no problem with you leaving them off your list. If you are going to talk about them please get the facts straight however. Birmingham Southern is no longer in the Big South and are now a D3 school. Winthrop has recruited SEC type talent in the recent past. Alex Wilson could play for any team in the country and is as good as any pitcher. He recently transferred to Texas A&M. Kevin Slowey is in the big leagues and Daniel Carte is another fine prospect they produced.

Coastal has been a regional participant 6 out of the last 7 years and has hosted twice in the last three years with 50 win seasons. They were not top 40 teams in those years but top 20 teams as evidenced by all the national polls that I am aware of except perhaps pgcrosschecker. I believe Coastal played the ACC in 12 games last year. They played TCU, Nebraska, and Notre Dame and beat all of them. They will play a similar type schedule next year. I believe they finsihed last year #7 in RPI and were one of only five teams to win 50 games.

The knock against Coastal is the conference they play in. I believe they do the best they can do (out of conference schedule) with the hand they are dealt. VMI swept Florida last year and Liberty can hit with any team in the country. High Point produced a nice prospect last year in Eamon Portice.

Lets use your analysis with Kentucky, for example. They won the SEC in 2006. What did they do before that? What did they do last year? They play perhaps the weakest out of conference schedule in the nation imho. Granted they have the SEC backing them up. Is Kentucky on the list because of the ranking of their recruiting class? If so, maybe those rankings need to be looked at. Sorry for losing my cyber-temper a bit but these types of ad-hoc analysis by an acknowledged expert can do harm imho.

It must be a typo--St John's is missing

But then what counts is Omaha

You know, how silly of me. I went across the street, had a beer, and I am still upset which is very unusual for me. I can get hot in a hurry but I normally cool down just as fast. Maybe I hang around the hsbbweb too much. Most of the topics have all repeated themselves many times over since I have been here and maybe I have worn out my welcome.

Lately, it seems that "rankings" especially from high profile showcases are what dominate the site. We have gone from a site where a kid announced what school he signed with to now announcing what their "rankings are" in addition to where they signed. Perhaps if you don't have one of those rankings you are not any good. I don't believe the rankings cover every player, and I don't believe they predict who the best teams are simply by adding up who scored the highest ranking recruits. Somewhere, someone has to play and perform. I will agree that the rankings often follow the best teams but I know for a fact they do not always predict who the best players are nor do they predict exactly who the best programs are.

To follow up on my Big South analysis in my post above, Winthrop also had two other players transfer along with Alex Wilson this year. One transferred to Arizona State and the other to Texas A&M with Wilson. Those were all junior transfers so Winthrop was at least half ways decent enough to attract two Big 12 players and 1 Pac 10 player.

Since Coastal does not play an ACC or SEC type schedule, let's at least consider the schedule they do play this year which is typical for them:

2 games versus Maryland
2 games versus Virginia Tech
2 games versus Wake Forest
2 games versus Virginia
3 games versus Georgia Tech
1 game against Clemson
1 game against North Carolina
1 game against North Carolina State

That's 14 of their 56 games against the ACC which is 25% of their schedule and almost all of these are on the road. They also will play Michigan for two games and I believe five other teams who made regionals or super regionals last year. Not an ACC schedule for sure.

I feel even worse now that I typed all this out but feel compelled to post it. I hope that no one ever holds what I have said or posted against my son. He loves baseball more than life and I hope I never do anything to harm that.

Cleveland -

Very good post(s) and I believe you hit the nail on the head. It is so easy for the "experts" to look no farther than a few conferences and proclaim that the sun rises and falls on the programs in those conferences. I have seen Coastal play and they could hang with any program in the country.

I saw Notre Dame play last year and they were average at best. Yet because they are ND, they get quality points over a program like Coastal who just goes out and beats quality teams week after week.

There is a snobbery in college baseball like in no other collegiate sport. However, as mad as it makes me sometimes, it is still a blast to attend a college baseball game with two quality teams going after each other.

The earth is moving and with the new changes that start next year, it will be interesting to see if perceptions continue to match the realities of the new college game.

CD, I don't think there is any reason to worry about what you have posted and especially for CD, Jr.
My view is that ranking and rating baseball programs is much too subjective and more important, very regional.
My view is that Coastal is very similar to Long Beach St.
Long Beach gets lost when you consider they compete with UCLA, Fullerton, USC, Pepperdine, USD and the like.
Coastal can get overshadowed by Clemson, Wake, South Carolina and the like, for the average fan, and even the more informed.
But just like LBSU, the teams and coaches that compete against them won't overlook them. Professional scouts know them. Most importantly, the players at Coastal know they can play with the best.
Heck, they might even be a little edgy about it.
Let's come back to this in May. Pretty good chance everyone will know Coastal.

Well said infielddad.

CD,

After reading all these posts along with yours I’ve decided to add Coastal to my non-official Top 40 list.

I understand your concerns. I think I mentioned the fact that Coastal is a top team. In fact, many would consider them a top 40 team. Some might even consider them a top 20 team.

I was talking about a top 40 program (whatever that is, I didn’t invent the term). I think Coastal has done an amazing job and I really like their coaching staff. I may not know as much as you about Coastal, but I do know they have a great program. We might be a little more knowledgable about them than you think. They come to several of our events and we like those guys.

quote:

Sorry for losing my cyber-temper a bit but these types of ad-hoc analysis by an acknowledged expert can do harm imho.

What does ad-hoc analysis mean?

Are you serious. Acknowledged expert? Do harm?

I follow players, Allan Simpson from pgcrosschecker could maybe be called an expert on college baseball. His opinion of the top 40 programs would mean much more than mine. Heck, he probably would have included Coastal for all I know. I really spend most of my time on high school players. I don’t even have any idea who all the top high school teams are posted on our site or pgcrosschecker.

This was simply my opinion based on no research. Guess I don’t feel so important that I could somehow “harm” a program by not including them. I mean, not even you could say the Big South is one of the top conferences, can you? It wasn't meant to cut down any program within the conference.

Here is what I think…

If you ask 10,000 players around the country including high school prospects what the top 40 programs are, what programs would they most like to attend… I think that would be the mysterious top 40. That would include how many wins and how far they went in the tournament, but so much more than that. Resources, climate, tradition, facilities, media attention, fan support, players drafted, academics, coaching, administrative support, the list goes on and on. Yes, the football schools can have an advantage because most of them have more money/resources among other things. That is especially true in the South and West (good climate areas) when it comes to baseball.

One thing that has become very obvious to me is that college baseball is all about coaching. The best coaches can win anywhere. Coastal has one of the best. So maybe there is a legitimate reason for calling them a top 40 in addition to good players and winning lots of games..

Listen, we all know that things get decided on the field. I probably could have easily put Coastal on the list originally. But believe me, I’ve made much bigger mistakes than omitting Coastal from this list that was thrown together quickly. I was expecting some discussion and disagreement, but didn't think it would cause anyone to actually get mad.

quote:

If you are going to talk about them please get the facts straight however. Birmingham Southern is no longer in the Big South and are now a D3 school. Winthrop has recruited SEC type talent in the recent past. Alex Wilson could play for any team in the country and is as good as any pitcher. He recently transferred to Texas A&M.

Yes, sometimes those darn facts are important.…

I was just going by the Big South records from there website, didn’t notice it was from two years ago. Was referring to schedule strength. Birmingham Southern was listed and they didn’t finish at the bottom of the conference that year. Once again just referring to the conference strength. I know that there are some real good teams, just not one of the top "conferences" in the country.

Also, because of what we do, we get lots of questions regarding colleges. There are players who signed with Coastal this year that have parents who have asked me about the program. I’ve told them that Coastal is a power and they should seriously consider that school. Also mentioned the great coaching staff. In fact, one of those parents posts right here I believe. Pitcher from your neck of the woods.

quote:

Lately, it seems that "rankings" especially from high profile showcases are what dominate the site. We have gone from a site where a kid announced what school he signed with to now announcing what their "rankings are" in addition to where they signed. Perhaps if you don't have one of those rankings you are not any good. I don't believe the rankings cover every player, and I don't believe they predict who the best teams are simply by adding up who scored the highest ranking recruits. Somewhere, someone has to play and perform. I will agree that the rankings often follow the best teams but I know for a fact they do not always predict who the best players are nor do they predict exactly who the best programs are.

I would agree with a lot of that, we all know that predictions are not always correct.

I really don’t understand your reference to rankings. I’m sure that Coach Gilmore would love to recruit the highest ranked players away from Arizona State, Florida State, Clemson, Stanford, etc. Heck, he just signed a player we have ranked fairly high.

More importantly, I don’t understand why you feel this site is dominated by rankings or showcases, guess I haven’t noticed that. In fact, I personally never talk about showcases on this site unless if asked a question. Never have, it’s not why I spend time here. Also never talk about player rankings and until this thread didn’t bring up any rankings of teams either. I’m a bit confused as to why you would bring that up. I don’t post when we have events or advertise anything that we do. Never have! Didn’t even want an ad on this site. Never posting our events or trying to get kids to attend them on here. Never put links to our scouting service or even our site! I can’t stop what others might post, but I’m not part of the rankings or showcases dominating this site. Not even a very small part. No part in fact! I wish they would take all showcase information and ranking discussions off the site. It would actually make it more enjoyable to me.

Anyway, I have always liked your involvement here. You sure haven’t worn out your welcome as far as I’m concerned. I believe you are one of the favorites and most important people here and you have added so much to this site. You’ve also brought up some very good points in this thread. I wish you would have just said “I disagree with that list, Coastal Carolina has done such and such and belongs. But I understand and can even appreciate your passion. Then again, why not get mad at Boyd’s list because he spends ten times as much time following colleges than I do. He even has a formula he uses and it doesn’t pertain to rankings or recruiting. How did he escape your anger?

Anyway, once again, after doing a lot more research and hearing what has been said here I’ve decided to add Coastal Carolina to my list. I really don’t think it will mean anything to anybody, but just in case I’ve added them to my original list through that wonderful editing feature. Sorry for the mistake.

Also, I’m pretty sure you have done much more to help your son and have done nothing here that could ever hurt him. Here’s hoping both he and Coastal Carolina have a big year.

I hope my good buddies from U of San Diego don’t see the list or I’ll be in even more trouble.

Now would someone else please be kind enough to post there list of that "top 40" everyone always talks about and take some of the heat off. In the meantime I'll think twice before doing something like this again.

I agree well said gotwood.

I am sorry for coming off as a hot head in this thread and apologize to PG. I have never once hyped my son or his school on this site and did not intend to say anything about them today

I have no problem whatsoever with Jerry's list. It probably is the correct list. My dander was raised when their were characterizations made about the program that were unfair imho. Posting the list ought to have been good enough imho. Pointing out 2006 and ignoring the track record is unfair and we can do that with every team on the list for one year and in some cases for several years of poor performance. Also, no one would ever say the Big South has the type of talent as in the major conferences. But the suggestion that a team like Winthrop could not win a recruiting battle with an SEC school is also unfair imho. No need to promote one school by knocking another one down. If someone feels some school or conference is better, that alone ought to be good enough.

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"Now would someone else please be kind enough to post there list of that "top 40" everyone always talks about and take some of the heat off."

Your wish is sort of like my command sir!




I really like no.12 for obvious reasons...

...but no.3 is a beaut as well...have a listen!: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwnqqj5Q1BU



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Knockin' down them flames...workin' hard...keen-o!


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I just saw PG's post above. My issue has nothing to do with Coastal being left off the list. I only ask that if you are going to take the time to characterize them that it is done fairly and accurately. The mention of Birmingham Southern made me wonder how much is really known about the conference.

PG - I am asking you to apply your analysis of Coastal to Kentucky. Other than 2006, what is it that makes them a top 40 program? Is it the ranking of their recruiting classes? I wondered if your list was compiled from data that basically picked the top teams from where all the top "ranked" recruits went. Since, Coastal's 2006 record was mentioned, what about Georgia Tech, Florida, Notre Dame, and Kentucky last year?

CD,

Once again my original intent was simply to start a discussion. We always hear the term "Top 40 Program". It has been going on for a long time.

I didn't spend any time researching this and added this along with the list.

quote:

No one ever seems to say who the “top 40” programs are, yet that label is thrown around all the time.

Anyway, it got me to thinking. I know that is dangerous, but thought I’d come up with a non official top 40 list. Surely there will be some debate, but here is what I came up with. This is not based on 2008 alone.

What changes should be made to this list if we had to stick to only 40 programs?

The one thing that might have influenced my thinking is... We have all players that attend our events fill out info sheets. One of the questions is what colleges are you most interested in.

Often the answer is not a college but a conference, SEC, Pac10, ACC, Big 12. These conferences seem to be by far the most popular with talented high school players. We also see lots of big state colleges listed. Just to be totally honest, we do not see certain schools hardly ever mentioned. Yes, some of those schools never mentioned are what we could call top 20/40 teams.

I believe the mysterious "top 40" which is not a ranking, but it's something perceived. It's not neccessarily based on this year, last year, or anything like that.

Though Kentucky probably shouldn't have been on a top 40 program list, I think I was swayed by the big state famous college that has had a couple of great recruiting classes lately.

Maybe rather than always mentioning this ficticious "top 40 program" everyone talks about, we should list the top conferences. That would be a little less controversial. Maybe not!

BTW, St Johns probably belongs too. In fact maybe when people talk about a "top 40 program" there should be 60-70 colleges on that list.

Let's see...it's the top...







...or the top...









...or even the top...










Hang on guys...there may be room for you yet!




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I know...I know Krak...time for bed. Ga' night all.


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Now that I no longer have a dog in the fight (hint: this won't be PC), I wonder if the schools who aren't on the list might be happy about it. After all, beat up on the big boys too often and they won't play you.

When your kid is a sophomore in high school, has his first big varsity season and someone tells him he is good enough to play in college (or maybe even get drafted), does he say, I want to go to Coastal Carolina?

No.

Norfolk State? East Tennessee? Towson? University of Rhode Island? Hawaii?

No.

Now, if any one of those other (or any other) schools would like to overpay my son to coach, I'll be happy to edit my post. Until then, the winter Top 40 thing is only a place to start a good debate.

Until May, ratings don't mean a thing.

But PG, I do have a beef with you. Since you've said you concentrate more on high schools, I wonder when you'll come out with the Top 40 high school National Anthem singers at baseball games nationwide.

Even if ratings don't mean a thing, if you don't rate the Anthem singers, the daughters of posters all over this board will be damaged, knowing their most important places in the game were overlooked by people everywhere. They might lose out on their dream schools and go to places like Coastal Carolina.

You wouldn't want that on your conscience now, would you?

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My head hadn't hit the pillow yet Krak...one last post tonight.

After listening to this I'll never get to sleep !: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrFW2aYHVR8&feature=related


Thanks alot Oldvaman !



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Thank goodness for the Canucks...like Sominex© to my ears, eh?:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTOm7gofXnQ&feature=related





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