Velocity

Root that is not exactly true. If you look at the roster for my son's school, I'm pretty sure that every kid recruited in his class (2015) topped out 90-96. This includes JUCO guys and righty / lefties. Son's school has made a philosophical change to go after "power" arms. I'm sure if you look at Vandy, Clemson, North Carolina, Florida and the likes you will see the same thing. These schools just aren't very interested in guys who can't break the 90 mph barrier. This is just what I saw during son's recruitment.

When you guys say low D1 or mid D1 - can you give us an idea of what schools would fall into each category? 

 

 

If you don't already, you should follow this site - http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/conferencerpi .  It is always open on my iPad.  Others should weigh in, but look at RPIs.  I'd say Mid D1s probably start just below the Big10 on this list and anything below #20 is low D1.  But, is not exact and can change from year to year and CERTAINLY from program to program within each conference.

90-96 is not usual and they rarely will attend college.

Thanks - that's very helpful.  I have been doing some research and looking at many of what would most likely be low D1 (although some may be high-mid of the low D1s if that makes sense - higher up in their conference) and I don't find many of them with 2016 commits who are RHP and max below 85.  Most sit 84-86 and top out at 87-89.  So far I have found 2 (an 83 and 85).  My focus has been on the northeast - when I look south almost all have a 90+ committed.  

 

I'm going by the commits reported on PG.  Looking as part of my own research for our 2016 and not just because I have no life.  There really doesn't seem to be a place (D1) for a RHP who sits low 80s and tops out at 85.  There are tons of schools I haven't checked and many who have no RHP commits yet but my limited research does not support the theory that low 80s-85 is low D1.  Most of those schools seem to want (and get) RHPs throwing in the high 80s. 

I think you are getting it, for sure.  Rule of thumb, I believe (please, please, I don't need to hear from all the naysayers...I get it that there are outliers...I just posted that myself.and I am simply talking velo here...not addressing secondary stuff) is that for any D1 (even mid or low) an RHP who is aggressively recruited needs to at least touch 88 with some consistency.  For LHPs, subtract 3. 

 

MK, PM me if you have specific questions as my son is high academic, NE bound as a 2016 RHP.  He was recruited by many, and it all really started and moved quickly when he hit 88 last Fall.

TPM, I realize that 90-96 is not that unusual. My point was these are the type of arms that are showing up on campus. The 4 pitchers (3 freshman and 1 Juco) that have started this fall at son's program are 90-96. Son's school did not recruit the "upper 80's" type pitchers. They told us they were making a conscious effort to go after "power" arms. This is a philosophical shift than the type of pitcher they have recruited in the past.

TPM, I apologize. I read your post as "unusual". Pretty typical of me. Sorry.

There may be schools that limit it like that. I just started to look on PG at recruits from the 2016 and 2017 classes. Vandy has 18 pitching recruits in those classes, of whom6 throw under 90. Clemson? 9 of their 11 pitching commits throw under 90. The guys throwing over are at 90 and 92 and three guys throw 85 or under.

90-96 fastball, what other pitches do they have. Thats draftable material, unless the do throw that velo and cant pitch. Its not that I do not believe you, unless they didnt cit the ml profile i understand. 

North Carolina, on the other hand has 11 pitching commits and only three top out at less than 90. Of those, one is a lefty and one is at 89. Strangely, one is a RHP who topped out at 86 in July. However, it looks like he committed the summer before his soph year when he was throwing 85 and hasn't improved.

I love this thread and it drives me crazy at the same time. No absolutes but definite trends on velo and make up at big D1s. My sons HS class at colllege has 9 Ps signed but only shows PG velo data on 8 so i was able to gather this:

 

7 RHP's avg FB Avg 91 all but are 90+ guys, the other is 86 and high is 94.

1 LHP and he is an 89 guy but have "heard" he was mid 90's in spring last year (insert unicorn joke here) hope he stays there fall next spring

 

My son is the 94 kid and was told he will need to learn to fight the urge to throw hard and that will be his single greatest challenge. We'll see how that goes.

 

 

Keep in mind these #s come from guys throwing their hardest to get noticed.

Once they get to campus, the fun begins, it becomes more of slow down and lets work on mechanics and how to pitch.

Son looked pretty good in HS but he was really a sloppy mess when he got to clemson and it took awhile to make a pitcher.

Its pretty hard to understand, it all becomes clearer in the spring.

 

TPM, I can only speak for son. He had an arm issue in early April. We shut him down and the MLB interest vanished. I understand. That is why I say it is a harsh business. My son comfortably sat 88-90, topped out at 92 and was told that he has the best breaking ball in the state and one of the best in the country by those same MLB scouts. So he has the "stuff" for the next level, but you cannot control injuries. Our "biggest" recruit is the McKay kid out of Texas. He was projected in top 3 rounds I believe, but just had a burning desire to play collegiate ball. He is 6'5" and around 220 so I know he has the prototypical pro body. The JUCO guy turned down some pretty good money. I don't know the other kid, so I don't really know about his secondary stuff. I know for my son, I just don't think he was ready for pro ball and I'm kind of glad things worked out the way they did. Not that I want my son to go through an injury, but I just didn't want an 18 year old kid to have to make a life choice. I just personally wanted him to go to school, but I kept that opinion to myself and was going to let him make that call. We had many discussions as a family, but ultimately it is his life and his decision, right or wrong. I know you have been there and done that so I am not telling you anything new. I just think a lot more of these power arm guys are going the college route, especially if they see their college coach has a proven track record of getting pitchers developed and into pro ball. This is my first rodeo, so I certainly don't have all the answers. This is the main reason I value this site so much and appreciate the knowledge of posters such as yourself.

Ill just throw this in: getting to a school is only the first component of a happy match. Playing is the critical outcome everyone seeks. A kid maybe recruited who throws 90+ or 85, but that kid may never see the field.

 

The happy feeling of being recruited for the most prestigious baseball university quickly turns to dust for many of the incoming class at that school. Just look at the numbers; many of these schools bring in 20 freshman a year (and can augment at will from JUCOs) - some regularly bring in more (e.g., SDSU bring in upwards to 25+ every year). Even assuming EVERY draft eligible player in that team gets drafted and signs before senior year, where did the players from the freshman class go? 

 

Moreover, parents and players are always astonished that significant playing time for freshmen isnt the norm. But, take a step back and think: virtually every player recruited by these top baseball schools was a spectacular HS stud. I think too many assume that the HS stud will remain that when facing not only HS studs from his year, but also HS studs who are older and have experience.

 

It's quite a shock to many that so much practice time and angst is put into baseball only to find the opportunities to play are extremely limited.

 

I say first go where you'll like the school absent playing (pretty standard advice). Second go to a school which offers the major thought to be pursued (recognizing that that will probably change as most college kids switch majors athlete and non athlete). Third, research the school (assuming it's the same coaches) and see what is the history of development and patience with players, transferring in and out, playing time distribution, pro players (if a kid is thinking that), summer ball placements (a kid can get lots of game experience during the summer even if he didn't play during the year - and playing is the best way to get better; it's hard to improve sitting on a bench), graduation rates and majors, job placement opportunities, etc. 

 

And, most importantly have a realistic view of where yours fits into the baseball world. We often joke that dads add seven miles an hour to a son's FB; the same is true when we try to evaluate our own kids playing ability. It's tough to be objective when so much of the family's time, treasure, and identity is tied to baseball success.

 

It's more then "go where you're wanted" (though that is a component). A coach will make every player during recruiting feel like he is wanted - that's what makes a coach a great recruiter. It's go where you're wanted and will play. 

 

As as for velos, why be the only 85 mph recruit in a class of 88+? For every Joey DeNato and Michael Roth (LHPs) there are dozens who never got lift off - most because they were at the wrong school for what each brought to the table.

Thanks for the response.

While I believe that college is a better option out of high school, we dont know the petsonal circumstances of the other players. Most will head to college because they didnt get the $$$ they wanted.

Good luck to your son and enjoy the ride!

Saw a note earlier in this thread about LHP speeds - specifically "less 3".  I have always wondered what the differential between RHP and LHP was in terms of FB speed.  Does anyone have any comments about the 3 mph difference as about right or should it be more or less?

 

Also, has RPM gotten any recent traction?  Have read that a high RPM FB can look 2-3+ mph compared to a low RPM.  Is anyone, including MLB folks, working with that measurement?

If you don't think velocity is KING, I just heard the announcers during the Cardinals and Nationals game refer to the Cardinals pitcher, Lyons, as a soft throwing lefty. Lyons is sitting 90-91😳😳.

He is a soft tosser! 

If he "gets" the batters out, does it make any difference.

The question "does he know how to WIN!

 

One year at the Area Code games, I selected 100 pitchers, including 50 LHP.

the scouts wanted to see the LHP's in the USA. They enjoyed the opportunity to see the best 50.

 

I do not understand the phase "sits at". as a hitter that is a pitcher that I can hit.

Bob Gibson did not sit at MPH, he "knock you down" if you learn over the plate.

 

Bob

 

PGSTAFF...Can a PG FB be changed based upon a College evaluation at one of their camps or does it aways have to be a PG event?

Why are you getting so hung up on a PG rating? Or an evaluation from a single outing at a camp?  Beauty (or in this case, recruitabilty) is in the eye of the beholder - and at the D1 level the beholder needs to eye the athlete. 

 

S didn't have a PG rating (he didn't do any PG events, and wasn't on any travel teams beyond ninth grade)). As far as I can tell it didn't make a whit of difference in his recruiting journey.

I'm of the understanding that College recruiters actually look at this stuff. They will want to see a potential recruit up close and personal (no doubt). They may want to look at a list of uncommitted by year of graduation. They may keep a list of kids they follow or wish to follow. So, wouldn't you want an obsolete velocity (velocity being the be all and end all) replaced. I'm also under the impression (maybe others can weigh in) that playing on a good select/travel team pays more dividends than perhaps HS ball simply because of schedules. To your final point regarding recruiting paths; I'd be interested in your view.

Every recruiting path differs.

 

I did not mean to imply that HS baseball was even on that path - though at some truly elite baseball HS programs (e.g., lots of them in Southern California), the stands will be packed by scouts and occasionally the local College coaches when a possible pro prospect is performing. For us, HS baseball brought nothing to the recruiting table.

 

PG is great, no doubt about that; but we took a different path and because we were already settled by this time senior year, our experiences are not on point with where you are at right now.

 

For our family, the grades and scores provided access to schools that S would otherwise not have been able to achieve admissions (he would have been one of many, rather than one of few). We recognized that and conveyed that in no uncertain terms from very very early in his schooling (e.g., no full effort in school, no baseball).

 

With that brief background in mind, S did scout ball (beginning in tenth grade), three headfirst camps (beginning as a rising junior), two Stanford camps (same), and devoted the rest of the money available to lessons (the hitting lessons were a waste; pitching lessons were well worth it). His PC had lots of college/pro contacts- so exposure was not a problem.  S was on no PG list (HS), his commitment wasn't listed on PG. He literally had dozens of schools calling.

 

Others have totally different paths.

 

I know from the local NAIA coach, they lacked a decent recruiting budget, so they viewed lots of CDs and did pay attention to the PG lists. I know from the recruiting coach of the local D1 baseball power that they attended lots of PG events but would never rely upon the rankings - seeing was believing from them.

 

It's fine to leave no stone unturned in this process, but realize that in the end, the player's projected contribution to the program is all that matters. In D1 programs that means seeing a player, meeting his family, and evaluating the fit. No D1 coach (well there may be one out there, but who knows who that is) is going to abdicate that and allow a PG rating to determine a recruit's fate.

Just a few comments for what it's worth... it has been my experience that college recruiters do in fact look at the PG rankings.  They very much want to see the player in live game action...

 

True story... son was working out with his team he is a jr... he asked the recruiting coach, "Hey where did the freshman play high school ball" the coach then said, I can tell you their hometown and their travel team, i have no idea about their high school team.  I would have to look it up. 

And he can probably max at 95, and would show in PG as a 95.  So, Dads out there beware that you're not going to be in the bigs throwing 90 max. (I know, I know you heard of some guy somewhere that threw 88... whatever, good luck)

I know our HS coach told me last winter there were 11 D1 commits in our league over the offseason and only one of colleges contacted the HS coach. The other 10 were signed from summer ball. One kid was an ACC commit before he played a single varsity game, he apparently had a couple good AB's vs a stud in GA and is very projectable...I wish there was futures market because that kid IMO has little no chance of helping the school he is going to. I would say he is about 90/10 to leave after freshman year.

I dont agree about coaches not knowing the HS coaches. I know that the coaches in FL have pipelines to the HS coaches, and they go watch them play at these schools but I am sure the deciding factor is to watch them play quite a few games.
old school,
Did that player who committed to that ACC get a significant scholarship, walk on? 
There is a parent here who bitched and moaned that his son didnt get a sniff and so much better than everyone else, but other players got commitments  to a big D1, then finds out they didnt get much or anything. More than likely walk ons.

       
       
Is there someone on this thread who indicated they thought their son could pitch mlb topping at 90?  Don't think so.

You can definitely pitch in the majors topping out at 90mph. The problem is that it's incredibly difficult to first get to professional baseball unless you can at least sit at that velocity. Once the door is open, your performance will get you through the ranks. However, a guy sitting high eighties and occasionally hitting 90+ won't be shown the same patience that they show the guy sitting 94. Greg Maddux certainly was able to make a career throwing "soft." However, he got the opportunity because he could throw 94 out of high school.

Maybe if your son is a submariner?

I fail to see how a pitcher's military service is relevant to the conversation.

The trend in baseball recruiting is much like that of AAU basketball... like it or not .  While there are some schools that will go to local HS games to see recruits they are interested in the trend is scouting travel/select ball.  Most I say most not all high school coaches are teachers first and coaches second... The top tier travel teams have better coaching, play in high profile events and are actively involved in the recruiting process.  A few that come to mind are the Canes, Scorpions, Chet Lemon, etc.....Most HS do not have loads of talent on their teams. It is more cost effective to go to PG events, PBR events, showcases, camps and see many players at many positions.   As most of us agree HS stats mean very little.  I have had many college recruiters tell me that they would rather see the recruit play against the best and like talent in summer ball than HS school ball.  Couple this with the fact that the HS season and the college season intertwine and its a no brainer to spend your college teams travel budget watching summer ball.  A player got a call for his travel coach the other day telling him that a top 10 ranked school wanted him to speak to him.... they did not call the HS coach I will add that it does also depend on the level of the school.  The above was considering D1 and some D2... Juco is much more regional in their recruiting... NAIA take a lot of juco transfers and have guys that stay 4-5 years in the program.

Area Code Baseball 1987-2015 provide the opportunity to young pitchers. Players were selected by pro scouts for tryouts and the games. This process remain today. Players selected paid NO fee.

 

In 1998, at our tryout at TCU a 6'5 LHP was throwing at 85 mph. The pro scouts were not impressed. I selected this pitcher and placed him on the 900 team. He goes home to Houston and adds 8 miles to his fastball and is drafted 1st round the next year.

 "You never know" Check the 6th Tool. Read the book PEDRO.

Go to baseball events, watch baseball to LEARN!!!!

 

Bob

 

 

I'm sure many college coaches prefer to see players during the summer on their travel teams. However, during my son's previous 2 varsity seasons he (and I) have seen many local D1 teams, Ivy's, Big 10, and ACC coaches in attendance. I'm sure there are others, but I'm only commenting on the ones that I have seen personally.

You have a point here. If you are lucky enough to play on a upper classification powerhouse, there are plenty of local options, and you want to stay local, you really don't need these national showcases. However, that's not a situation many of us have the good fortune to be in. I'll give you my example. My son plays for a 3A Colorado school in the southeastern plains. The closest school our size is over an hour away. the next, two hours. Colorado has (excluding the Air Force Academy) a grand total of ONE D1 school - University of Northern Colorado. That's right, neither the University of Colorado or Colorado State field baseball teams. There is a local JC and a D2 that is 130 miles away. That's it. He's not going to get any attention here from the high school season. IN fact, as I've mentioned before, we had a pitcher last season who touched 90 and cruised 87-89. 90 K's and 8 BB's on the season - velocity AND control. Not a single sniff from colleges. He's currently at the local JC who got a steal because this kid and his parents had no clue how to get him in front of people. He played summers with the local team that played only local, very small tourneys. If this guy had simply attended one PG or PBR event...

As always, depends on the area you're in. That may be how it is in Tenn, but not necessary the same in every location.

I can agree with you that your experiences may be different... but the trend is scouting travel ball not high school ball like it used to be.  Hey American Legion used to be the source for recruits, not so much any more, things change.

You are correct Root.

From what I've seen, the ones being looked at around here are mostly juniors in their spring HS season. To my knowledge, they have all been seen during the summer on their travel teams. I would imagine it's far more difficult in your area, so playing travel is almost a must if a kid wants to play at the next level. I've never counted all the D1's within a 2 or 3 hour drive, but it's a pretty good amount.

The kids in this area, with Ivy or other high academic goals, are lucky that most of those schools are within a couple hour drive; and the coaches are willing to make the trip. At some point during the season it is not uncommon to see Princeton, Yale, Columbia and others at a game or two.

Keep plugging away. Your on the right track and your son will be fine.

bacdorslider,

After some of the PG events that I've been a witness to, I couldn't agree more. Far more better players to compare a player to.

My guess is that there is a reason why a college coach goes out of his way to see a kid during HS. Maybe his interaction with his teammates?  His leadership?  I really don't know for sure, so I'm just taking a stab in the dark here.

I can say that after speaking with my son, his heart is in HS baseball more then it will ever be in travel. In his words, "there's just something about playing for your school".  It's not that he doesn't like travel, but he feels the motivation to win is different. It's more about "me, me, me". 

Not that I'd ever assume that my son would be drafted out of HS, but I do know that feeling of allegiance to his school team appears to tell me which direction he would go for certain.