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Today I was checking out some things in preparation for the start of the season. One of those things was taking a look at some of the stat leaders on MaxPreps. I do that so when I get asked some kind of off the wall question at a game about nationwide stats, I at least have some idea about what’s going on.

So, today I told MP to give a list of the players leading in the batting average category. I saw a player named Tyler Chilton from Rockingham County HS in Wentworth, NC, batting .716. That in itself wasn’t necessarily strange, but when I saw he had played 22 games, I blinked several times. ;

So, I went to that school’s page, and the 1st thing I noticed was, the team roster only had one player. That caused a few more blinks. Curious, I checked the team’s schedule and saw they hadn’t played a game yet, and that elicited quite a few more blinks. Wink

The next thing I did was call the folks over at MP and pointed out what I’d seen. They checked and agreed there was something wrong, and sent an e-mail to the coach to notify him that something was amiss. Unfortunately, I find several dozen things like that every season, but most of the time what’s happened is that someone with the password to enter stats for the team, made a boo boo.

I wouldn’t even care, but I know how they compute the numbers. FI, for batting stats, in order to be eligible to be listed, the player must have played 1/3 of the number of games the player with the most games has played. In this case its 22*.333, and that rounds to 7 games. Well, there just aren’t a lot of players in the country who have played 7 games yet. In fact, the next highest number of games played is 12, which would mean aal players with 4 games should have been eligible.

Yeah, it ain’t very important in the grand scheme of things, but that doesn’t mean these things shouldn’t be a correct as possible.
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quote:
Originally posted by coach2709:
You sure those weren't Chilton's stats from last year? Next Monday is when NC starts the 2012 season.

I've heard of this kid and he can flat out play. Not sure if he's a .716 or not but I'm sure how many kids are even with the worst opponents.


I haven’t got a clue what they are, other than they aren’t this year’s numbers. But whether or not anyone can hit .700 or not isn’t the point. Someone had to put those numbers into the system for this season because the data is segregated by seasons.

I hope no one thinks I’m accusing anyone of hanky panky! There’s gonna be data entry errors when there’s people putting in stats for something like 600,000 players over 600,000 games.
Stats,
You know that, based on previous discussions, I think many of your efforts regarding a clean, nationwide HS stat database are well intended but futile.
That being said, I do think there is one thing you can do to move the meter. Use your contacts at MP to convince them of the need for an option to "hide" and "unhide" a team's stats during the time just prior to and during playoffs. While MP has done an incredible job getting buy-in accross so many schools, this is one deterent that causes some remaining schools to decline participation.
Many coaches don't want to give their opponents that advantage come playoff time against unknown opponents.
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:
Stats,
You know that, based on previous discussions, I think many of your efforts regarding a clean, nationwide HS stat database are well intended but futile.
That being said, I do think there is one thing you can do to move the meter. Use your contacts at MP to convince them of the need for an option to "hide" and "unhide" a team's stats during the time just prior to and during playoffs. While MP has done an incredible job getting buy-in accross so many schools, this is one deterent that causes some remaining schools to decline participation.
Many coaches don't want to give their opponents that advantage come playoff time against unknown opponents.


Yeah, I know the road is long and very bumpy, but just sittin’ on a stump and complainin’ about it doesn’t do a lot of good. So I trudge along as best I can. Wink

As for that option, first my personal opinion. What any coach can learn from MP stats that will help him in a playoff game, or any game where nothing at all is known about the opponent, is so minimal as to be inconsequential. I know that many believe that an opposing coach can look at the stats and come up with some divine strategy that guarantees victory, but in a nutshell, that’s pretty much BS. Now if MP had all the different metrics MLB teams have available, and a coach was willing and able to spend countless hours analyzing and planning, I’d prolly feel differently, but as things stand, its really pretty silly.

That’s my personal opinion, but even so I gave the baseball/softball gal over at MP a call, and talked to her about it. She told me it’s a subject that has come up for discussion before, but has always met with a resounding “NO”, but she promised to bring it up again. Neither she nor I have ever seen or heard of any service like that, that offers that option.

Now that that’s been taken care of, I still have an open mind on it, at least to the point of being willing to accept people’s thoughts on it. Given what metrics MP has to offer if every coach submitted all possible data for all players for every game, what could a coach learn that would give him an advantage?
Last edited by Stats4Gnats
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
Given what metrics MP has to offer if every coach submitted all possible data for all players for every game, what could a coach learn that would give him an advantage?


Yeah, I realize it is limited but you can still gain quite a bit of insight. Obviously, the 3,4,5 hitters are going to be good but you can still make some estimated predictions of ...
-How much power each hitter has(how many XBH, HR)
-How strong or weak bottom half guys and subs are.
-Likely velo of P's (A high K guy in a good league is likely higher velo, low K in average league is likely a spot guy, etc.)
-P's BB/IP ratio. Will he give free passes? How patient should you be?
-Number of stolen bases will tell you which guys to pay closer attention to when on base and if they are a running team by nature.
-Number of sacs can tell you likelihood of bunting a runner over.
-Number of K's for hitters can indicate what type of hitter/swinger, what type of plate discipline - same with BB/AB ratio.
-Number of saves may tell who the closer is - you can watch that guy in pre-game warm up and know if LH/RH, hard thrower or otherwise.
-What is defensive caught stealing %
-How many HBP when compared to others in their league can indicate whether they are leaners.

etc., etc.

This is assuming you have or can obtain reasonable info regarding the general competition level of the team's league, since they play in the same state division as your team. You also must check stats of other teams in same league as comparison. Some leagues have a few short fields or a field w/ no fence, etc., so HR's may be up across the league.

This is not to be mistaken for trying to extract info from a team across the country that may play in a division that is on a totally different level. Then, those numbers have no bearing. Too much unknown.
Last edited by cabbagedad
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:
Yeah, I realize it is limited but you can still gain quite a bit of insight. Obviously, the 3,4,5 hitters are going to be good but you can still make some estimated predictions of ...
-How much power each hitter has(how many XBH, HR)
-How strong or weak bottom half guys and subs are.

-Likely velo of P's (A high K guy in a good league is likely higher velo, low K in average league is likely a spot guy, etc.)
-P's BB/IP ratio. Will he give free passes? How patient should you be?
-Number of stolen bases will tell you which guys to pay closer attention to when on base and if they are a running team by nature.
-Number of sacs can tell you likelihood of bunting a runner over.
-Number of K's for hitters can indicate what type of hitter/swinger, what type of plate discipline - same with BB/AB ratio.
-Number of saves may tell who the closer is - you can watch that guy in pre-game warm up and know if LH/RH, hard thrower or otherwise.
-What is defensive caught stealing %
-How many HBP when compared to others in their league can indicate whether they are leaners.

etc., etc.

This is assuming you have or can obtain reasonable info regarding the general competition level of the team's league, since they play in the same state division as your team. You also must check stats of other teams in same league as comparison. Some leagues have a few short fields or a field w/ no fence, etc., so HR's may be up across the league.

This is not to be mistaken for trying to extract info from a team across the country that may play in a division that is on a totally different level. Then, those numbers have no bearing. Too much unknown.[/QUOTE]

Of all those things, the only ones I can see that would give any useful information would be having to do with steals, and even then, what do you do with it? As for the rest, what can be done, in reality to offset the other players?

I’m not being flip here, but I’m just not used to seeing HS players who can execute so well they’d be able to take much advantage of such general information. Now if there were scatter charts for hitters or pitchers, or how the different players did in lefty/righty matchups, then I could see an advantage. Maybe I just don’t have the same faith you do in either the coach’s ability to analyze data, put it into play, and have his players execute well enough to take advantage.

I guess I’m too cynical. Frown
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:
Don't know what to tell ya. As a coach, I've used each of the line items listed at one time or another and the numbers were an accurate reflection 8 or 9 times out of 10.
This is odd, me defending the use of stats with you taking the other side Confused


I’m not at all against stats, HS, LL, ML, or any other venue. What I’m saying is, I don’t see the “normal” HS coach doing the kind of in depth analysis it would take to get much useful information out of MP stats, and even if he did, would have players capable of executing well enough to realize much of an advantage.

Maybe what I’m saying is, it sounds like “micro-coaching”. Be honest. How many times have you looked at your “scout sheet”, seen the opposing batter gets lots of XBHs, then hollered to the OF and IF to move back, then come up with a plan for the pitcher to somehow not allow the batter to make solid contact, any more then you normally would?

It may just be that I’m only going by what I’m used to seeing. I’ll be honest. I’ve seen our coach scout games, but I never asked him what he did with that information, and I haven’t noticed him flipping through notes. So maybe he does use the information, and maybe it does give some advantage.
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
Be honest. How many times have you looked at your “scout sheet”, seen the opposing batter gets lots of XBHs, then hollered to the OF and IF to move back, then come up with a plan for the pitcher to somehow not allow the batter to make solid contact, any more then you normally would?



I could not have been more honest. If we are playing a non-league, tournament or playoff game where we do not know the opponent, I will look at the MP #s to see if there is anything to be learned just as I listed.

It is certainly not the only way we size up our competitors. You can see speed during warm-up jog/sprints. You can see a good power swing in the on deck circle as well as an inside out swing or a long swing with holes. You can pick up on a P's stuff, control and location preference as he warms up. You can watch a catcher throw down and determine skill level and whether you can run on him. You can watch 3b move and throw and determine if you can bunt on him or not... and on and on.

The MP #s are just one of many tools you can use if they are there. Absolutely, if a guy shows power #s, then shows a matching swing on deck, we'll be pitching him carefully and postioning OF's accordingly. If a guy has a high K ratio, you're darned right we'll have P flip some curves off the outside corner early in the count whereas we're not going to do that with a kid who has a low BA but high BB per AB. If a guy is 13 for 14 in SB's, first we're not going to walk him. Then if he gets on, we're holding closer and considering pitchouts. If a guy has no SB's and a body to match, we're not going to risk throw overs or waste the P's attention on the guy. I don't consider this "in-depth analysis" or "micro-coaching", I think this is just top level basics.
Last edited by cabbagedad
What would be wonderful, is if there were a way to calculate the success of such things, but unfortunately there isn’t, at least not yet. Wink

I want to comment on one thing from above, strictly from my perspective. Hopefully that will allow you to get a better understanding of how I view things.

You said “If a guy has a high K ratio, you're darned right we'll have P flip some curves off the outside corner early in the count …”

I look at that and wonder if there’s any consideration given to the situation, or the pitcher’s ability to execute. FI, if the bases were loaded with no outs and the game was tight, is it really a good idea to risk getting behind in the count to anyone? Also, it may be that the pitcher on the mound at the time doesn’t have a particularly good hook, and doesn’t have very good control when he does throw it.

There’s just so many factors that go into each and every thing that takes place on a ball field, I’m skeptical that controlling them is really worth the time it takes to do all the analysis, at least at the HS level. Wink
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:


You said “If a guy has a high K ratio, you're darned right we'll have P flip some curves off the outside corner early in the count …”

I look at that and wonder if there’s any consideration given to the situation, or the pitcher’s ability to execute.


Yes, of course there is consideration given to the situation and ability to execute. I was answering your question and offering up how we generally use the information available to us, specifically MP #s. It is ususally not practical for us to go scout unknown opponents in advance. That's another reason why we exract what we can from MP for such an opponent. We are just a decent mid-tier HS V program and our P's certainly understand and are able to execute with reasonable success the act of throwing a breaking ball that starts in the zone and falls out. 100% execution? Of course not. Doesn't mean you don't teach them to execute the game plan based on what you know about your opponent.

Again, I am a bit confused by your argument. You typically are a champion for stats that are several layers deep and I always argue that, at HS level, it is only practical to use top layer stuff and just as supplementary info to what you see on the field. Now you are skeptical that it is worth the time to do the analysis??
What's got into you?
Last edited by cabbagedad
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:
Yes, of course there is consideration given to the situation and ability to execute. I was answering your question and offering up how we generally use the information available to us, specifically MP #s. It is ususally not practical for us to go scout unknown opponents in advance. That's another reason why we exract what we can from MP for such an opponent. We are just a decent mid-tier HS V program and our P's certainly understand and are able to execute with reasonable success the act of throwing a breaking ball that starts in the zone and falls out. 100% execution? Of course not. Doesn't mean you don't teach them to execute the game plan based on what you know about your opponent.


Take a guess and throw out a number you feel is a reasonable representation of how much better your HS teams play because of the analysis of the opponent’s numbers as opposed to how they’d do using a standard “template” for a “generic” team as an opponent.

IOW, in situation “A” against a team you knew nothing about, you’d have “X” amount of success. By having this additional information, do you feel you’d improve 15, 10%, 20%, or some other number? As I said earlier, since there’s no way to measure what you believe is happening, it really makes the discussion difficult. Frown

quote:
Again, I am a bit confused by your argument. You typically are a champion for stats that are several layers deep and I always argue that, at HS level, it is only practical to use top layer stuff and just as supplementary info to what you see on the field. Now you are skeptical that it is worth the time to do the analysis??
What's got into you?


I’m afraid you don’t understand my perspective, but that’s ok. To me, the stats are a measure of what’s going on, and I believe it only makes sense to look at them in as many different ways as possible. Using those numbers for the players on the team to manage them, is one thing, because the numbers have a commonality and validity about them.

But to me, its quite different to try to manage the team in a game by using the numbers for the opponent players, because that commonality isn’t there, and therefore the measuring stick is very likely different. That doesn’t mean the numbers don’t offer some degree of assistance. But I can’t help but doubt that the degree of assistance is outweighed by the lack of consistency and the dearth of information. Now if one person could score all the games and submit all the stats, or in lieu of that, some standard for the scoring like there is in MLB, that would be different.

There was a reason that the use of stats wasn’t a very big deal until relatively recently, even in the ML. Those “standard” things called for in the rules to keep track of, which are even typically fewer in HS, just don’t offer that much useful information, over and above what would typically be done. It wasn’t until it became easy to draw on all the data to use in many different ways that Sabermetrics took off.

In a league like the one we’re in, I’d say the scoring was pretty good, and since submitting the numbers is mandatory, the information could be useful. But the coaches in our league don’t need to look at the numbers because they see all the teams at least 3 times each season, and there are no secrets! Those guys talk to each other all the time.

Again, I don’t really know if you’re right and the numbers are a great help, or I’m right and trying to use them is basically a waste of time that could be spent in other ways. How about this. If I were a HS HC, I wouldn’t spend much time pouring over an opponent’s numbers, but I’d burn the midnight oil looking at my team’s numbers and trying to make sure I was using my players the best way possible. Wink
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
If I were a HS HC, I wouldn’t spend much time pouring over an opponent’s numbers, but I’d burn the midnight oil looking at my team’s numbers and trying to make sure I was using my players the best way possible. Wink


We see our players for 3 hrs a day at practice and games and discuss them at length as a staff before, during and after. 99% of our focus is on getting our team to perform to the best of their abilities. We do not lose sight of our own path or take time away from focusing within. That being said, we would be failing as coaches if we didn't pay some attention to our opponents.
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:
We see our players for 3 hrs a day at practice and games and discuss them at length as a staff before, during and after. 99% of our focus is on getting our team to perform to the best of their abilities. We do not lose sight of our own path or take time away from focusing within. That being said, we would be failing as coaches if we didn't pay some attention to our opponents.


Our only difference seems to be in how much we believe at the HS level, the minimum numbers available on opponents, helps in being successful against them.
I hope no one minds if I give this thread a bump. I figured that those of you who have contributed here can probably provide the best advice. I also want to keep the discussion rather low profile for obvious reasons.
As a dad of a HS Frosh Varsity pitcher (4-0 record)I want to be able to see my son's stats on MP but our coaching staff is not so inclined. The quick answer i have received is that no one in the big picture really cares about HS stats. Our school is of course listed on MP but the information is out of date/incomplete. As I look at several of son's travel team-mates I see their stats and of course am thrilled to follow their success. The question is: Am I just one of "THOSE" parents or is there reason enough to work towards encouraging/facilitating the posting of HS team stats. Is there any meaningful recognition that would provide any assistance in playing at the next level?
Last edited by mcmmccm
quote:
Originally posted by mcmmccm:
... As a dad of a HS Frosh Varsity pitcher (4-0 record)I want to be able to see my son's stats on MP but our coaching staff is not so inclined. The quick answer i have received is that no one in the big picture really cares about HS stats. Our school is of course listed on MP but the information is out of date/incomplete. As I look at several of son's travel team-mates I see their stats and of course am thrilled to follow their success. The question is: Am I just one of "THOSE" parents or is there reason enough to work towards encouraging/facilitating the posting of HS team stats. Is there any meaningful recognition that would provide any assistance in playing at the next level?


Hi Mc,
You asked three questions...

Am I one of “those” parents?

If you know the staff is not inclined to post on MP, have asked and been told they don’t want the stats posted and you continue to work toward encouraging/facilitating having them posted then I would guess that you are well on your way to being perceived as such to your son’s coaching staff. You don’t want that. Your son does not want that.

Is there reason enough to work towards... the posting of HS team stats?

No, particularly not if the staff does not want them posted.

Is there meaningful recognition... (for) playing at the next level?

On the occasion that it exists at all, it is pretty far down the list. MP is used consistently in some parts of the country and not in others. College coaches are aware of the wide range of competition and the inconsistencies of HS stats. They are very reluctant to put any weight on them. Typically, your son is not going to get noticed because of his HS stats. He will get noticed because he is talented enough to play at the next level and someone recognized that by seeing his skill set in person. HS stat results are not necessarily an indicator of that skill set. As a pitcher, does he have the stuff that will translate to college success (velocity, movement, location, demeanor, athleticism, etc)? Is he projectable? Does he excel or stand out against high level competition and/or at high profile showcases? These are the things colleges will look for before checking HS stats.
If they do check at all, it will likely be just to verify accuracy of any info he provides in any dialog. Also be aware that if he does get noticed, at some point the college coach or recruiter may very well be asking the HS coach about him. You’ll want to be sure that you haven’t created any negative coach/parent relationships that may affect what the coach has to say about the player.

Look, I understand the disappointment in not seeing your son’s successes posted next to those of his friends. At the end of the day, if he’s good, he’ll know it, his friends will know it and you will know it. Trust that any deserved recognition will eventually come his way.

In my previous posts on this thread, I describe how I, as a HS coach, use MP info as a tool when playing against another HS team. This is quite different than trying to use this info to determine if a player can play college ball or not.
Hope this helps...
Last edited by cabbagedad
quote:
Originally posted by cabbagedad:


Hi Mc,
You asked three questions...

Am I one of “those” parents?

If you know the staff is not inclined to post on MP, have asked and been told they don’t want the stats posted and you continue to work toward encouraging/facilitating having them posted then I would guess that you are well on your way to being perceived as such to your son’s coaching staff. You don’t want that. Your son does not want that.

Is there reason enough to work towards... the posting of HS team stats?

No, particularly not if the staff does not want them posted.

Is there meaningful recognition... (for) playing at the next level?

On the occasion that it exists at all, it is pretty far down the list. MP is used consistently in some parts of the country and not in others. College coaches are aware of the wide range of competition and the inconsistencies of HS stats. They are very reluctant to put any weight on them. Typically, your son is not going to get noticed because of his HS stats. He will get noticed because he is talented enough to play at the next level and someone recognized that by seeing his skill set in person. HS stat results are not necessarily an indicator of that skill set. As a pitcher, does he have the stuff that will translate to college success (velocity, movement, location, demeanor, athleticism, etc)? Is he projectable? Does he excel or stand out against high level competition and/or at high profile showcases? These are the things colleges will look for before checking HS stats.
If they do check at all, it will likely be just to verify accuracy of any info he provides in any dialog. Also be aware that if he does get noticed, at some point the college coach or recruiter may very well be asking the HS coach about him. You’ll want to be sure that you haven’t created any negative coach/parent relationships that may affect what the coach has to say about the player.

Look, I understand the disappointment in not seeing your son’s successes posted next to those of his friends. At the end of the day, if he’s good, he’ll know it, his friends will know it and you will know it. Trust that any deserved recognition will eventually come his way.

In my previous posts on this thread, I describe how I, as a HS coach, use MP info as a tool when playing against another HS team. This is quite different than trying to use this info to determine if a player can play college ball or not.
Hope this helps...


Cabbagedad, Thanks!! That is exactly what I was looking for. Trust me I don't want to be one of THOSE dads. His coaches are a great group of guys that work well together. I was just a little concerned that as a small town HS we might be missed if not included in MP stats. I have benefited so much from this site as cautioned about letting my son working things out with his coaches (multiple sports) and I just provide transportation to and from the school (slightly overstated, but you get the point).

I have been a long time proponent of publicizing the stats especially for travel baseball where there are dads coaching. It seems to me that it takes tons of pressure off the coach when everyone can see the data that supports the coache’s line-up.
Thanks again!
quote:
Originally posted by mcmmccm:
Cabbagedad, Thanks!! That is exactly what I was looking for. Trust me I don't want to be one of THOSE dads. His coaches are a great group of guys that work well together. I was just a little concerned that as a small town HS we might be missed if not included in MP stats. I have benefited so much from this site as cautioned about letting my son working things out with his coaches (multiple sports) and I just provide transportation to and from the school (slightly overstated, but you get the point).

I have been a long time proponent of publicizing the stats especially for travel baseball where there are dads coaching. It seems to me that it takes tons of pressure off the coach when everyone can see the data that supports the coache’s line-up.
Thanks again!


Before you totally give up, let me add something. While no one is going to get a ‘ship or a contract offer because of his HS stats, trust me when I say, having them posted on line is definitely something that can put a kid on the radar. Having said that, its very unlikely a member of the Fr or JV team will do that though, because if they are really a dominating force, they won’t be on the Fr or JV teams.

As far as MP or some other place to post them on-line, MP is by far and above the largest of such services, and its growing at a rate of 3-5% yearly.

In the end, chances are that the reason your coaches don’t want to do it, is because they don’t want to spend the time getting it done, rather than worry about clandestine operations by opponents, or the numbers causing team disharmony. It’s a little late in the season, but next year try this. Offer to keep score, be the statistician, and post the stats. Anyone can do it who the coach gives the password to. I did it for 2 years at my son’s school and am in my 6th year at this school. You can catch more flies with honey than vinegar. Wink

Our program is a little strange in that our VHC wouldn’t spend 5 seconds posting anything on-line, so if I didn’t do it, I guarantee that no one would. But our JV coach is exactly the opposite. If I can’t get them posted within several hours, he’s in there doing it himself, and he revels in the numbers. So it can go both ways. Just take your time and approach the coaches with a little respect and you’d be surprised at what might happen.

Good luck!

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