When discussing Draft....What is Leverage

The best leverage is to be really, really good. Even better, be John Elway. 

But you got the gist. 

You got it. Just like any negotiating deal the person with the most leverage wins.  A HS senior with a good offer has leverage.  A juco freshman has a little less, then juco sophomore, then junior, and a senior is in trouble unless they have a lot to offer.  It still depends on talent and projectibility.  The change in leverage is when someone makes a growth spurt or adds speed/power either as a pitcher or hitter.  But all things equal and progressing as normal your best leverage is as a HS senior.  Again, that does not completely playout in the draft if you look at history because a lot of guys (I don't know % because I don't study that stuff but I'm sure some here do or could find it) increase their slot by going to college or playing an extra year or two.

Yes, I've heard, for pitchers, it's around 50% chance to make it to the bigs out of HS, but upwards of 70-80% out of college and you're 1 year from a degree. They've fed you, strength coach, play experience, etc.

That seems to be the "Better" odds, not that they're great and with 10% of guys drafting out of college, 90% of guys need to think of their future/education, etc. 

We know too many personal stories of guys that drafted out of HS that wouldn't recommend it or do it again, if given the chance.  To each their own. 

Anxious to see how this all plays and shakes out.....

Eokerholm posted:

OK, I'll ask. New HS parent here and people are talking about the Draft and leverage.

Could someone help explain what that is/means?

I've heard best leverage is out of HS, then Junior and then Senior in College....

Is that because the MLB Team has to entice you 1) to not go to college and 2&3) to not return to college your senior year and then they have you by the "short hairs" after your senior year and wouldn't have to pay you as much? 

Yes to your last  paragraph.  But $$$ is the leverage. A 100% paid scholarship is more leverage than 50%. A scholarship to Vandy is more leverage than a walk on to a P5 program.  

In all cases the HS player will have the better option. To the 3rd year player, the team most likely will cover the last year and you will get paid slot $$. There is essentially no leverage for a graduating senior or one with a few more credits to go. 

Be aware that the ML Scholarship plan is a joke.

In the end it's all about opportunity.  Son had an opportunity to get drafted in a 5th or 6th round in HS, team would not cover for the 90% out of state scholarship, only for instate.  Going to school for 3 years, was his best leverage as he became a 2nd round pick.  The college baseball years are priceless.

I am not a big proponent of 17, 18 year olds going to college because most people have no clue about what actually it all entails.  A discussion for another day.

As far as the statement being really really good, most picks are based on projections. That's why you will see a lot of late round picks get to MLB, they just don't project well from the beginning.  A great example, Big City Matt Adams. A 23 round pic from Slippery Rock University. 

Have the right build (6’4” 210) and a 95 mph fastball in college and being really good won’t matter. Health Hembree was drafted in the 5th round out of college as a junior after barely pitching his first two seasons (for two schools) and a 6.53 ERA and. boat load of walks his junior year at a third college. He was projectable. He’s pitched better in MLB than in college.

Go44dad posted:

The best leverage is to be really, really good. Even better, be John Elway. 

But you got the gist. 

I agree. Everything being equal a hs guy has more leverage than college jr and especially college senior because they have something to go back to but part of why seniors have less leverage is selection bias, i.e. most seniors are seniors because they weren't drafted top5 rounds and chose getting a degree over getting 10k in the 19th round.

If you are really good you can still get paid as a senior (see mark appel who didn't sign and went first overall for a like 8m as a senior) but most seniors simply aren't that good.

Being younger helps but if you are a 20th round talent you don't have much leverage as a HS kid either.

Jake Mangum (Miss State) was a fourth round pick after senior year. He signed for 20K. Slot was 487K. His options were sign or go home. The word is several teams contacted him the previous year offering 300K if he would sign. He wanted to return for senior year as 23yo to win the CWS.

There isn’t a personal baseball future reason to return senior year unless the player believes he will go from undrafted to drafted. All the leverage is gone.

You’re also one year older waiting until after senior year. If you’re in AA at twenty-six for reasons other than rehab the Grim Reaper isn’t far behind (unless your name is Tebow).

If it means finishing a degree for the 90% of people not drafted I can see the value of returning or increasing your draft slot like the pitcher did at Arkansas last year.

Some baseball programs limit classes and some limit majors so at 12 hrs/semester the school gets 5 years of instruction/tuition vs 4 years at 15/semester. O’Connor explained it well at my son’s UVA visit.

The dream should/could be to get drafted and play but if guys aren’t also securing education and a degree I think they aren’t taking the best advantage of the opportunity given to them. Trade school too is another great option with good employment and work. 

if I didn’t draft as a junior or like my slot and could finish my degree and draft again or start graduate school if I had the desire or aptitude for would be another option to return as 5th senior. 

All scenarios are legitimate for leverage but understand if high school is the best. Just don’t see that happening as easily.

Appreciate the insight as always.

Jake Magnum was an exception. Money wasn't an issue.

During the recruiting visits sit down with HC, discuss if the school pays for them to return to get their degree. Clemson has a Tiger fund, 36 credit max plus room and board.  Most larger and P5 programs have that program.  All of these things help in the decision.

I think that it has been proven that 12 or 15 hour semesters are easier to get through than what used to be 18 for all sports. But yes, depends on major.

That, was tough.

Jake Mangum’s financial situation was different. His father is very successful professionally. He turned down scholarship money so the team would have more money to give to other players to improve the team.

But disregarding money, if you want a future in baseball how wise is it to not come out at twenty-one (after his soph year) or twenty-two (after his junior year) versus staying until you end your eligibility, sign and hit short season at age twenty-three? He will be in low A this year at twenty-four (assuming there is a this year). 

This is not a subject I would have approached with his name as an example if he was still a student-athlete. But now he’s an adult, professional athlete. I believe it’s  reasonable to use his situation in discussion. I’m betting he’s been asked by friends and baseball people.

Doesn't matter why he did what he did that was his choice.

I am sure that you know that the Penn league short season at Brooklyn is where the college guys start and that is a lot different than rookie. I am sure his next step will be be AA.  But that would be in a normal year.

So we have a friend whose son was drafted  high out of high school at 18 in 2012.  He has been so far in 3 trades, now on the big club with a BA below the mendoza line. He told me last fall that if it didn't improve this spring he would probably be DFA.

I am pretty certain that if he had gone to UF with his mad skills it could have worked out better, with a degree.

JMO

I don’t disagree with passing on signing out of high school to go to college. However, first round money can make a difference. One of the baseball kid’s who came before my son in high school (daughter’s class) signed out of high school. He didn’t consider the ramifications of not turning eighteen until fall and being 6’1’ 170 playing against mostly twenty-one and twenty-two year old, far more physically developed men. He washed out in three years versus having attended a HA major conference program.

But, I believe staying in college until twenty-three is too far the other way. Mangum didn’t do so well in short season that he should expect to start the season any higher than low A. Chances are this won’t be a great year to jump two levels to high A. Some will. But there will be a lot less time/opportunity to jump three levels to AA this year. 

Andrew Benintendi went from college to A in one season. He went from high A to Boston the next. But he aced every level in the minors. He was also a high first round pick. 

My 17 yo junior, ranked top 25 RHP nationally and #2 in TX is 6’4” 195 and currently throws low 90s, should hit mid 90s this summer. Sit mid 90s next spring/summer when he graduates. Has control of 4 pitches. Threw a complete perfect game at WWBA Jupiter playing up this year. I think he could have a legit shot at the draft if he stays in shape and healthy but will be in with the likes of Kumar Rocket and others but.....

We know some high 1st rounders that  got $4M and wouldn’t recommend it. Took him 5 years to hit the bigs. I’d rather my son go to school for 3 years and put on 20-30 lbs and get 3 years with a pitching coach like DBo @GT and a strength and nutrition coach is going to be his best bet. 

Just trying to follow along the conversations and gather as much information as we can 👍🏻

Eokerholm posted:

My 17 yo junior, ranked top 25 RHP nationally and #2 in TX is 6’4” 195 and currently throws low 90s, should hit mid 90s this summer. Sit mid 90s next spring/summer when he graduates. Has control of 4 pitches. Threw a complete perfect game at WWBA Jupiter playing up this year. I think he could have a legit shot at the draft if he stays in shape and healthy but will be in with the likes of Kumar Rocket and others but.....

We know some high 1st rounders that  got $4M and wouldn’t recommend it. Took him 5 years to hit the bigs. I’d rather my son go to school for 3 years and put on 20-30 lbs and get 3 years with a pitching coach like DBo @GT and a strength and nutrition coach is going to be his best bet. 

Just trying to follow along the conversations and gather as much information as we can 👍🏻

That’s leverage. And leverage gives you choices. 

Food for thought...

It's one thing to get drafted out of HS, another as a Jr in college...The "tests" just begin either way. Progressing a level, maybe 2 a year is not easy. Staying healthy is THE test...performing is equally THE test...and it starts all over every spring...

Consider the lifestyle...living in hotels, eating too much junk food, some long & cramped bus rides all night, trying to sleep , arriving 4-5-6 AM, (sometimes later), report to field 11-12 pm, game at 7pm...shower abt 10:30, eat again...unwind another hour or 2, hit the hay around 12-1 am...

This is "the grind"...This is reality...Big question is, can your 18 yr old handle it? Does a 21-22 yr old want "IT" bad enough? Is he willing to commit ALL? 

*I vote college! 

Eokerholm posted:

My 17 yo junior, ranked top 25 RHP nationally and #2 in TX is 6’4” 195 and currently throws low 90s, should hit mid 90s this summer. Sit mid 90s next spring/summer when he graduates. Has control of 4 pitches. Threw a complete perfect game at WWBA Jupiter playing up this year. I think he could have a legit shot at the draft if he stays in shape and healthy but will be in with the likes of Kumar Rocket and others but.....

We know some high 1st rounders that  got $4M and wouldn’t recommend it. Took him 5 years to hit the bigs. I’d rather my son go to school for 3 years and put on 20-30 lbs and get 3 years with a pitching coach like DBo @GT and a strength and nutrition coach is going to be his best bet. 

Just trying to follow along the conversations and gather as much information as we can 👍🏻

Long way off until your son's draft. But I agree with the college first, as did Rockers folks. Do your time and grow up in college.  And every organization is different.

Go44dad posted:

Eokerholm posted:

My 17 yo junior, ranked top 25 RHP nationally and #2 in TX is 6’4” 195 and currently throws low 90s, should hit mid 90s this summer. Sit mid 90s next spring/summer when he graduates. Has control of 4 pitches. Threw a complete perfect game at WWBA Jupiter playing up this year. I think he could have a legit shot at the draft if he stays in shape and healthy but will be in with the likes of Kumar Rocket and others but.....

We know some high 1st rounders that  got $4M and wouldn’t recommend it. Took him 5 years to hit the bigs. I’d rather my son go to school for 3 years and put on 20-30 lbs and get 3 years with a pitching coach like DBo @GT and a strength and nutrition coach is going to be his best bet. 

Just trying to follow along the conversations and gather as much information as we can 👍🏻

That’s leverage. And leverage gives you choices. 

100%!

Baseballmom brought up stuff that I forgot about. School helps prepare you for THE GRIND.

And milb is not MLB!

We are definitely an academic family. I have 3 masters, his mom 1 masters as we’re encouraging college for sure.

A degree from Georgia Tech goes a long way after baseball! 

I suppose every case is different. (Like HSBBWEB talks similarly about "recruiting journeys). Well in HS son got very few glances from the pro side, though some found his speed intriguing. I think he was asked to complete questionnaires for 2 or 3 teams.  During his junior of college, we started recognizing specific teams at some of his games.  Solid first three years of college, and was a starter from the outset.

Then his senior year preconference, he had "the series" against a top 5 program ( 7/11, 2 doubles, 5 SB, and 2-3 highlight plays at SS. ). His name was out there and the opposing coach raved about RipkenFanson on twitter and in post game interviews.  All told about 20 teams expressed interest before draft, 3 of which were most "serious." 

One of the most common questions son got during interviews with scouts, was "Why didn't you go last year?, " to which his mom privately would tell him "So he can get his degree!" It worked for him- and his current organization has been great. Looking back, my son and I talk about at least 5-6 awards/recognition he wouldn't have gotten or had a chance to receive, had he not returned senior year, including Captain of the baseball team.  Now he can give this baseball thing his all (as he has been and enjoying it) knowing he has a fall back option. Again, maybe not "leverage" but for him the best outcome occurred.

I see so many posts from parents of HS seniors stating that their son has “draft interest.” Almost all HS players and their parents have no experience w/ pro ball or the MLB draft. So it’s easy to get excited when scouts talk to your son. But it’s the job of an area scout to know about ALL players in his region that have ANY draft potential and he is required to fill out a report on all of them. Questionaires and in home visits are also positive indicators but only a very small percentage of HS seniors that get shown interest from scouts actually get drafted in their HS grad year. Even if you do get drafted out of HS it usually makes no sense to sign unless you are a top round pick and the signing bonus is crazy money (i.e. Bobby Witt Jr). Unless you are a top 10 round pick you aren’t going to get the full benefits (in terms of instruction & development) that a MLB organization has to offer. The more sensible route is to go to the best college program that you, play for 3 years, and sign after your junior year if you like where you were drafted and the organization that took you. The talent level in the best college programs is comparable to A level pro ball and the quality of life is WAY better. Go to college. Grow up and work on a degree so you have a back up plan. So many careers are ended by injuries or unforeseen circumstances. JMO 

Nothing in the word was better for my son than college, the experience, the challenges (academic and athletic) to help him mature and become a young man. He mentioned that to me not long ago and i'll use what most on here pass along...unless the money is life changing go to school. Obviously life changing or the family needs are relative...but consider the options of school and the education if at all possible.

Question for @collegebaseballinsights

How many 1st time draftees are seniors in college?  

How many draftees are juniors in college? 

how many draftees that were drafted at juniors but returned, drafted as seniors? 

would be interesting to see this to understand what the true numbers are.

tomorrows NCAA decision should be interesting .... 

It's easy to agree with every post on this thread. Leverage is a multifaceted animal. Another way to look at it is the MLB club is making a calculated decision on whether to draft you if they really like you and you fill a need. Many things come into that decision, one of which is the opportunity cost for the MLB team, in my opinion. If the cost of passing up on drafting a player is unacceptable to a team, then that player has leverage. So, I think someone on here said it already, the only real leverage you have is being a beast.  If you are a beast as a Junior and you get passed by in the draft, you never really had leverage. The option to return to school for a Junior (in the case of age-eligible sophomores) and Senior (for Juniors) season is only leveraged if you have many suitors and clubs are competing for you, in my opinion. If you only have one club seriously interested, your leverage is negligible at best.

Eokerholm posted:

Question for @collegebaseballinsights

How many 1st time draftees are seniors in college?  

How many draftees are juniors in college? 

how many draftees that were drafted at juniors but returned, drafted as seniors? 

would be interesting to see this to understand what the true numbers are.

tomorrows NCAA decision should be interesting .... 

 

 

 

One D2 pitcher that I know was offered money as a junior but the school cost more than offered and teams weren't going to pay  50k for 2 semesters for him to finish school.  He was drafted the following year as a senior and actually was offered a nice signing bonus in a nice round as a senior and walked away with degree in hand. He was a second day draftee.

I know of several D2 pitchers that were drafted as seniors because they were out as juniors due to injury. I think that you will find that happens often.  I also know a few seniors who were just late  round pitchers on the last day of the draft.  And one guy who was one of the best closers in D1 not drafted at all because of his unusual delivery signed as a FA with Boston and more than likely will get pretty far if he continues to get guys out. 

I am not as familiar with position guys, but junior catchers and SS usually get drafted well.

There are more pitchers that get drafted, so more than likely that is where the breakdown should be.  Also, is this just for D1, or all divisions? 

As far as leverage, I agree with what has been said.  Truth is that if you are that good or as mentioned a beast, you more than likely have been seen and interviewed by most of the teams.  With that, you will have lots of leverage. If one or two scouts have seen you,  you have less to use in leverage.

More than likely, an advisor can better answer those questions.

This year's draft will be interesting as there won't really be the "senior signs" as was the case the past few years.  These are high performing sought after seniors selected end day 2, who could be signed under slot to allow $$ for earlier draft picks (esp HS ones to bypass college).

Now seems  it's 5 rounds of the top players (maybe 10 rds) and then everybody falls under the up to $20,000 free agents, which was near the "highest end" of last year's senior signing bonuses.