High School ball is just about over for the 2022s and summer travel is about to begin or recently started. The 2022s can sign their NLI in 5 months.
At what point, between now and the fall, is it imperative to the 2022 that he was a legitimate offer to accept?
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That's the million dollar question for 22s. Here HS ball ended 3 weeks ago, so legion and travel ball is in full swing. My son is a 2021, but should be a 22 by age, so he has lots of uncommitted 22 buddies gunning right now for offers.
I got myself all worried for nothing when it came to 2021s late last summer and into the fall. Basically every 2021 around here who wanted to play college baseball is getting the opportunity. Even some I never thought were college-caliber at all. We're even still seeing commitments trickle in for 21s. So I am not going to get worked up over the 22s around here. Having said that...
Offers for 22s around here stopped last winter (Nov/Dec). A couple few D1 offers accepted last fall and then one D2 in December. Then it went completely dormant until April when a lone 22 RHP here committed to a local mid major D1. Granted, we're in Nebraska, but one 2022 commitment thus far for the year won't give you warm fuzzies. Obviously the dead period was still in effect until just now, so I am expecting things to pick up here shortly. But how well things will pick up, remains to be seen. With what happened with the 2021s around here, I am optimistic for the 22s, but I also fear for the potential of the "delayed carnage." That the 22s might still end up taking the worst beating of all the classes due to Covid et al. We'll have a much better idea here in the next 90ish days or so...
D3 & JUCO offers typically come in between September and December of the players high school Senior Year
@DanJ posted:I am optimistic for the 22s, but I also fear for the potential of the "delayed carnage." That the 22s might still end up taking the worst beating of all the classes due to Covid et al. We'll have a much better idea here in the next 90ish days or so...
My 22's travel team has 14 on it. Two are committed already. Of the other 12, most have the skills and talent to play college baseball somewhere. But, I don't think many have offers yet - or at least not the offers that they want.
I agree that the next 90 days are going to be telling.
Same here. 22 on our roster and 4 committed to D1 plus 1 is going to a JC (by choice). In a normal year a team like ours would have one half of the kids committed or in serious conversations, and based on the parents comments at our scrimmage last week, that is not the case. The other half would usually get their offer during fall ball.
Org director said it will just take more time than normal as only the top tier or special exceptions (connections to school as an example) have committed. We shall see. Not getting worried yet, but come see me in August.
Maybe the 22s are the group to get screwed by the perfect storm?
Lots of 2020's red shirted?
~1900 in the transfer portal?
2019s and 2018s got a extra year of eligibility.
2021s reclassing to become 2022s (at least in NJ with the Sarlo rule)
There's a lot working against the 22s that no one expected back in 2019.
'22s are in a weird spot because of the portal and reclassification. My son bit early on an offer and this uncertainty was a factor he considered before accepting. He's got one teammate who's twisting in the wind and probably should have found a home by now (D1-ish measurables and performance by my untrained eye).
plus there are many JUCO players ready to move on and are finding limited options as well.
@old_school posted:plus there are many JUCO players ready to move on and are finding limited options as well.
Good point
@OskiSD posted:'22s are in a weird spot because of the portal and reclassification. My son bit early on an offer and this uncertainty was a factor he considered before accepting. He's got one teammate who's twisting in the wind and probably should have found a home by now (D1-ish measurables and performance by my untrained eye).
Yeah. If I were a player and had an offer that checked all the boxes, I wouldn't sleep on it now. No need to wait.
Completely agree. Especially if it's a JUCO offer that checks all the most important boxes. My 2021 was one of those D1-ish prospects a year ago. He got a really good JUCO offer right about 12 months ago that came with a 30-day clock, but my son was also working closely with 2 D1s. The JUCO offer checked EVERY box except that it didn't say "D1" on it. My son spent about 2 weeks (of the 30 days) continuing with his travel team and trying to make one last strong push for the D1s to offer. He actually went on a tear for those 2 weeks. Ended up making an all-tourney team alongside 8-9 D1 commits. And we got great video of that 2-week tear. After those 2 weeks, he called his top 2 D1 targets to find out exactly where they were at with him. They didn't have anything to offer him at that time, so as soon as those 2 calls were over, he committed to the JUCO. Time will prove to my son it was one the best decisions he ever made.
On a side note, my son has stayed in contact with the RCs from his top 2 D1 targets. In fact, he's heading down to do one of their camps next month. Committing JUCO doesn't end the recruiting process; it's simply an extension...
Smart move by your son @OskiSD. Regarding the situation for non committed 2022's:
Assume that the 2022 would be an average D1 recruit pre-pandemic. He is in a WAY worse situation from a recruiting AND a potential playing position post pandemic. Especially if he is average to below average academically. Everyone who played college ball in 19/20 gets a bonus year of eligibility so there are now ~ 1500 more D1 players or more each season for the next 4 years that can play another year IF they want to. We are talking every "senior" in 20/21, 21/22, 22/23, and 23/24. Figure on average there are 3 Sr arms and 3 position playing regulars on each team. Then assume that at least 1 player hangs it up and there are 300+ D1 teams gets you to ~ 1500 per year. That does not include any elite D2 or D3 players that are most likely good enough to contribute to the bottom half of D1 as an arm, position player, or backup.
Next look at ALL the kids that have practiced/played baseball and lifted 40+ hours a week in JUCO this season. Unless things have changed I believe that last fall that JUCO said that the 20/21 season would not count eligibility wise. HS classes of 2019 & 2020 who attended JUCO can be classified as Freshman this upcoming year according to the NCAA along with the kids graduating this month.
Imagine you are a college coach. Generally you keep your job if you win and you lose it if you lose. Your choice is between 2 players (assuming that they are similar human beings): Choice #1 is a 20 year old man who has played against other men the last 2 years and Choice #2 is an 18 year old soon to be man who has played against other kids his age the last 2 years. Who do you choose?
I crappy as it is of me, I'm hoping for a lot of "carnage" this year that will lead to a fair amount of kids moving on with adult life (and hanging up their cleats). It's horrible I know. But without a fair number of kids calling it quits 2022s are in a horrible position. Josh Rudd nailed it when he said we were the eye of the hurricane.
@used2lurk great way of helping frame all that up. I think there are lot of people out there that have never wanted to crunch the numbers as you just did. Many prefer to blindly believe their son will prevail (as he has since age 8 up through high school).
You are correct that JUCO handed out 2 free years. My son is a 2021 heading to a JUCO this fall. In the spring of 2019 in HS, he played with a 2019 kid who committed to a perennial top 20 JUCO program (often top 10) 15 minutes from here. Spent the last 2 years training and playing there. Now he's heading east to a top level D1 who plays in the AAC. Both he (2019) and my son (2021) now have 4 years of eligibility remaining. What a great friggin' time to be a D1 coach, huh? And a 2019 who went the JUCO route.
@LousyLefty I am not sure I'd worry about 2022s in that sense. While there are legitimate reasons to be concerned, the "we've got it worst" award has proven to be a traveling trophy. Everybody remember when the 2020s were getting absolutely hosed due to Covid? That only lasted so long before the 2021s dethroned the 2020s and we all had a pity party for the 2021s as the newer even more hosed class. But that eventually fell out of fashion, so today's flavor is the 2022s. I am not arguing the 2022s aren't hosed, but don't be surprised if the 2023s knock off the 2022s some time after Christmas...
@DanJ worst game of "hold my beer" I've ever seen.
@DanJ and @LousyLefty it's like a reverse game of "when I was your age...." Each class has been impacted in different and sometimes unpredictable ways. I do hope that some of the worst of it is mitigated by guys getting amazing jobs and deciding to leave baseball on their own terms.
If the crowd here at PBR National Program Invitational is any indicator, plenty of interest remains in 2022s. Around a dozen mid-to-P5 teams watching the 17U game I’m currently attending here. Even an Ivy.
Edited to add - closer to 18 by the end. 2 Ivies and 2 SEC schools among them.
I too saw lots of scouts coaches at Lakepoint from P5, Ivey and Patriot League along with many mid major D1 programs. Plenty of interest in 2022’s as those were the games they were watching from what I saw.
I'm feeling a glimmer of hope. These coaches have to know there are kids out there who might be better at playing baseball than playing the recruiting game.
This is interesting and possibly encouraging news, but I'd like to hear more detail if its available. My guess is that 90%+ of the remaining interest in 22s is for pitching. Because, as we all know, recruiting pitching is the one door that never fully closes the way it does for everyone else.
I also think that the really good pitchers can afford to play the waiting game more than position players.
@Senna and @22and25, thank you for the updates, that should be encouraging to many. I heard from a R/C last fall that there would be MANY 2022's that were committed pre-covid that will not have been seen play for as long as 18 months by this summer. If they have not continued to grow as players they would likely be decommitted.
This R/C had 1 or 2 committed 2022's at the time (more now) he told me this. It is the usual suspects with 10-15 kids committed as 9th/10th graders and some others. I cant imagine with all of the firings and hirings that coaches more than ever want/need to win for job security. I am guessing that some of the D1 coaches watching these games are watching their own commits (whether they recruited them or not) and in some cases reforming plans.
BTW the R/C I spoke with's team is still playing this weekend with the goal being Omaha.
There were 7+ scouts at the PBR National at our 16u games early yesterday morning. Our game between two nationally ranked teams will be tonight. Hoping for a crowd. Tonight determines who goes to bracket.
We there at LP this weekend. A whole lot of recruiters watching games. I do know of one 2022 that was at least talking to a school from this weekend. A couple watched sons games but was not sure who they were looking at - only know of the one kid. I did talk to some parents that are concerned at the situation - as I am. Thanks for the thread for the discussion.
We played a game over the weekend, just a friendly between two fairly well known program in SoCal. Two scouts were there. Both there to see already committed kids. I have a pit in my stomach every time I think about it. Just glad my 2022 has really good grades and can go the high academic route, but it's definitely been a series of pivots these past 15 months.
Son ('22) had 1 teammate commit this weekend, as well as another from the other team. First to a solid mid-major, second to a P5. Another teammate is expecting an offer this week from a conf-winning mid-major. So it's happening.
Quick update from Black Bear Classic this AM. Currently have two P5 and six mid-major scouts here at our game. None are here to see current signees
I'll share some new info I got yesterday. My 2021 is already committed, but has lots of 2022 teammates and friends out their gunning right now. One is a 2022 RHP that got an offer from a stronger D2 JUCO program about 3 weeks ago. But it's a walk on. No money at all. Given it's June 16th, I don't like that at all. Most of the JUCO walk on offers we saw in these parts for 2021s were coming in the fall and winter. Another teammate of my son's just got an offer from that same JUCO this week. I am not sure what position they want him for, but he's a legit C, P and hitter and could possibly play a corner INF spot as well. He was offered $1000. Granted, it's a D2 JUCO where funding is limited versus D1 and the like, but these 2 offers worry me for 2022s given the dates. It may well be the case that the 22s really do have it much worse than the 2021s. Granted, I am trying to compare the 2021s' experiences around here with that of the 22s and maybe that's not quite apples to apples enough? @adbono, your thoughts on this?
Two new D1 commits on son’s team after this week. One to a P5, one midmajor conf champ. Both are position players.
Now to get son healed so he can start mashing….
@DanJ posted:I'll share some new info I got yesterday. My 2021 is already committed, but has lots of 2022 teammates and friends out their gunning right now. One is a 2022 RHP that got an offer from a stronger D2 JUCO program about 3 weeks ago. But it's a walk on. No money at all. Given it's June 16th, I don't like that at all. Most of the JUCO walk on offers we saw in these parts for 2021s were coming in the fall and winter. Another teammate of my son's just got an offer from that same JUCO this week. I am not sure what position they want him for, but he's a legit C, P and hitter and could possibly play a corner INF spot as well. He was offered $1000. Granted, it's a D2 JUCO where funding is limited versus D1 and the like, but these 2 offers worry me for 2022s given the dates. It may well be the case that the 22s really do have it much worse than the 2021s. Granted, I am trying to compare the 2021s' experiences around here with that of the 22s and maybe that's not quite apples to apples enough? @adbono, your thoughts on this?
I see/know a lot of 22s by me who are really good players and all should be playing in college somewhere and they are uncommitted. Part of me thinks it's the market. Another part of me thinks it's them holding out because everyone thinks they are playing in the P5. Could both be right.
@Francis7 posted:I see/know a lot of 22s by me who are really good players and all should be playing in college somewhere and they are uncommitted. Part of me thinks it's the market. Another part of me thinks it's them holding out because everyone thinks they are playing in the P5. Could both be right.
It could have a lot to do with first time transfer rule. D1 baseball did update their transfer tracker yesterday and there are over 1,800 players that can make the move. I would guess that's an all time high and it could be freezing the 2022 market just a tad. I know these are 2021 transfers but now coaches can see the high number of players who might look to transfer each year and this new information might be making them adjust lower the spots they give out for 2022. Just a guess.
I am too am concerned about my son's friends waiting for their D1 recruitment opportunity. My son is getting serious interest from a HA D3, they are going away to a show case but asked to us to stop by next week. He was invited to their camp and the day after they asked for his scores, transcripts and net price calculator (closest I ever came to tears without a death of a family member or friend). I think it is a great school of we can afford it. Will my son look for D1 opportunities? Yes of course, he is still going to camps and showcases but if this HA D3 offers, he will strongly consider it. Again as everyone stated here before me have a plan, make sure it includes a safe option. My kid has been injected with a lot of confidence because of this....alas he and his travel team did $hat the bed at the second game of their first tourney this weekend. It will ba a miracle to win their pool but I am selfishly OK with that as some of his teammates and my kid have finals on Monday so the playoffs would be a challenge to field and pitch.
Here at Creekside in KC earlier thursday I saw MN, SEMO, KSU, SIUE, CMU, Valpo, and piles of JUCOs at my kids game. Saw MO, MO State, and SLU and some D2s and D3s around the complex as well. They are out there and watching...tell your boys to keep grinding!
The earliest NLI day for the 2022s is about 4 months away. That time will go fast. Basically, if a '22 wants to sign on November 10th, something better happen for him over the next 3 months. I feel for these kids, it's a lot of pressure. (Again, this is for 11/10 and a kid could go later.)
@used2lurk posted:Here at Creekside in KC earlier thursday I saw MN, SEMO, KSU, SIUE, CMU, Valpo, and piles of JUCOs at my kids game. Saw MO, MO State, and SLU and some D2s and D3s around the complex as well. They are out there and watching...tell your boys to keep grinding!
Saw DBU, Wichita State, SIU, NIU, UWM this am. I am sure I missed some others but good to see additional schools out and about...
FWIW - in the last 7-10 days (give or take) - I'm seeing a lot of 2022s that I know coming off the board and verbally committing. Most recently, it seems like I am seeing 2 or 3 a day (by me) committing.
There was a jump in 2022 commitments in my area too
The summer prior to senior year was always the time for the overwhelming majority of players not heading to top 50ish programs.
I think that norm started changing a couple of years ago. After covid, my guess is that it will start trending back to the way it was. Colleges outside the top D1 programs will wait to see the finished product before offering and busting two yers down the line.
Down here - I talked to the head of my sons travel organization. He said they have had very few conversations - some texting - but not anywhere near what it was pre covid. He thinks it is all the coaches looking for the fall out to tumble down to the D-2, D-3 and NAIA and even the JUCO's from the transfer portal. It was stated this way - your son has good speed and great hands - but he is competing with kids with several years of college ball - which would you pick if you were a college coach.
It sucks - but I get it.
I've seen more players decommit in the last 10 days than commit. Unless you include college transfers...
@LousyLefty posted:I've seen more players decommit in the last 10 days than commit. Unless you include college transfers...
Saw this coming months ago and have advised that it’s time to make a new plan
I know several kids who didn't jump in the transfer portal that will have to go down if they want to play. I think this year, greater than any other I remember there are a lot of conversations during the summer about next spring's picture for current players. This is the year that a player needed to have a good summer. I know a few who made the choice to not play summer ball after not playing this fall and it has bitten them. Rosters are filling up because there are a lot of really good players in the transfer portal from big schools that played last year and are leaving where they were. Everybody better have a backup plan for this fall and winter. I think 2022's will be fine but they not be where they thought they would be. There will be some ponds that were correct, in our analogy of fish in the right pond, that all of a sudden have some really big fish dumped in them.
It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
@DanJ posted:One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
Unfortunately for my own 2022, this makes complete economic sense. The recruiting market is currently glutted.
I'm seeing 2021s that re-classed to 2022s and are in worse shape than last year. A few thought they were better than the offers they got last year, most didn't progress.
@DanJ posted:It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
This is a really good post and I suggest that everyone that it applies to read it again & again. It’s spot on. The market dictates where a player belongs. It’s basic economics - plain and simple.
I may have missed it, but will the roster size change in 2022?
@2022NYC posted:I may have missed it, but will the roster size change in 2022?
40 man rosters for 2022. Haven’t heard anything for 2023
It's better than being 41 or lower. If you make the roster, you have a chance.
You forget these are max numbers. Some AD's are making teams stay at 32!!!!
@Good Knight posted:You forget these are max numbers. Many AD's are making teams stay at 32!!!!
If you are on a team that’s keeping the roster at 32 you are either very fortunate or you did your homework well. Either way you are in the vast minority.
I am, we did and we are!
They had 37 on their roster last year. I don't know of a single P5 team that only had 32 on their roster. They may keep travel roster down or some resemblance but all the P5 schools I have looked at have close to 40.
I highly recommend this for uncommitted ‘22s & ‘23s. There are some very good JuCo programs that will be in attendance. 
Well Minnesota is staying at 32.
They show 37 on website. What happened to other 5?
I am not going to play this game with you especially with last years roster.
Not trying to start anything I just knew they had 40 on the roster at one point and now it shows 37.
We kept 46 on posted roster but that included guys who were hurt and some who redshirted early and were staying. We have had 5 go in transfer portal and 2 others that are going to juco's this year. 7 drafted and 2 ran out of eligibility. We will have one 6th year player come back and another 5th year player. What will happen to the rest that are trying to stay? Only time will tell. We will have several leave after fall I am sure but who knows where they will go. My thought is if you did not play last year there is very little chance you are playing this year unless you were sitting behind a senior and they are not bringing in a juco, transfer portal, or freshman replacement. We will have several guys who did not play last year and will not play this year with the ones coming in.
My kid's hs teammate decommitted from a HA to a P5. He definitely has the chops to play at that level and great kid overall. I know that this is probably a rare event given the current times, did anyone else have similar experiences?
On a side note, the kid has 2 regional tourneys left and a org sponsored showcase that he is going to participate in then it is over. He will be playing fall ball but has not committed to a team as his current coaches may not do it. His future college coach hooked him up with an area wood bat league team for next summer, the kid is excited about it, me and the better half will support it and may even make the several hour drive to watch a game and maybe sneak in a B&B. We secretly worry about the host family living arrangements as he lives like a slob with us so hopefully he will not bring the bad habits over to them.
It feels like everyday for the last 3 weeks that I see some 2022 that I know announcing a commitment.
I'm glad to hear that because it's still largely crickets around here. Still trying to figure out if its because offers are slim or kids are holding out for "better" offers. For whatever its worth, I do feel the 2022 class around here doesn't generally seem to have much of a sense of urgency. To each their own, but I can't imagine not having one right now. Maybe they know something I don't. Wouldn't be the first or last time.
Yes, seems like lots of commitments around me (same area as Francis and 2022NYC) I even saw a few 2021 commitments..
I know there are several in my kid's org who will be making the standard social media announcements on their commitment. It is great to know opportunities are still available in my area. At the risk of being a blowhard, this has been such a transformative year for our kids. I am glad to see kids who did not reclass stick it out and got rewarded with that decision. I look forward to reading about the next set of challenges they face in this shortening journey. My kid landed a job at a local restaurant and to my joy opened a savings account and wants to save money for living away next summer playing ball and of course for college....but he also annouced a girlfriend and pierced his ears...the crushing effects of the universe balancing itself on mom and dad.
The girl thing could be a thread by itself. It's unavoidable, certainly understandable, etc. But, it's a distraction and a potential derailment albeit partial or full.
Yes. It is a walking on eggshells discussion at home. He introduced her as a "friend" to mom via facetime...a solid strategy of gaining mom's approval first given mom can be like a pistachio nut with no gap in the shell. I get crickets from him about her, but we have silent understanding. He is able to manage this juggling act, we will see how this plays out when with school starts.
@DanJ posted:It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
100% Danj, 100%. Great post.
@fenwaysouth posted:100% Danj, 100%. Great post.
That is the perfect post for any discussion where the presentation of facts by one side of the debate is countered with a response from the other side based on feelings.
This is no doubt that facts can absolutely poke all kinds of holes in one's feelings. As I am a highly emotional individual (enFp for anyone familiar with Myers Briggs), I struggled earlier in my life when facts would relentlessly show up to erode conclusions I came to based mostly on my feelings. I'm not able to turn my feelings off, but these days I work to seek facts that support my feelings and I end up with some hybrid of the 2. But its always the case that I feel better about my arguments and conclusions when I gather as many facts as I can.
Friend of ours (2022) decommitted this week with nothing lined up. Been committed for a year to a D1. Seems like a risky move.
@d-mac posted:Friend of ours (2022) decommitted this week with nothing lined up. Been committed for a year to a D1. Seems like a risky move.
It’s not risky if he looked at the list of returning players, transfers, committed recruits and realized his odds of getting on the field are slim.
Just putting this out there...girlfriends or boyfriends are like any other friend. They can either stabilize and help keep his/her head on straight or they can be a distraction. The reason they get a bad rap is that they have an exaggerated influence but it can be good or bad. I've watched my daughter and her boyfriend (both P5 D1 athletes--basketball and football) and if anything, his grades and his motivation with internships/jobs and on the field has improved since they started dating. The key to me is does the girlfriend or boyfriend has their own life and motivation or are they just hanging on? @Francis7 is right...probably it's own thread.
@d-mac posted:Friend of ours (2022) decommitted this week with nothing lined up. Been committed for a year to a D1. Seems like a risky move.
If I had to guess I would bet it wasn’t the player’s idea.
@adbono posted:If I had to guess I would bet it wasn’t the player’s idea.
This was 100% the player and family making the decision. Decided it was too far away.
@d-mac posted:This was 100% the player and family making the decision. Decided it was too far away.
Well then, that’s put it right in the “you never know” category. Hopefully it works out.
@d-mac posted:This was 100% the player and family making the decision. Decided it was too far away.
Sounds more like a “cold feet, what if I don’t get on the field” reason.
A friend, former teammate did this. He made his decision a week before school started. The state university program was happy to have him on short notice. After chewing up the local regional conference the coach left for a southern program and all but ordered the player to come with him. Now that he wasn’t the coach he told the player he was wasting his time and talent at that school. That school came in fourth at the CWS two years later.
The coach ultimately became a MLB Director of Player Personnel. The player became AAA Player of the Year before injuries blocked his path. Imagine stepping in a pothole getting out of your car at the airport on the way to the majors and badly spraining your ankle. Then the next year breaking your wrist getting hit by a pitch in the playoffs. The MLB team had told the player you’re up after the AAA playoffs. It went downhill from there. He never played a day in the majors.
Another roadblock before the injuries was his agent told him if he was included in the Rod Carew trade he was going to be the Twins starting left fielder. His MLB organization held out on trading him. They didn’t acquire Carew. Then the injuries started.
@DanJ posted:It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
Late to this post, and its tough analysis, but it's spot on. Unfortunately, whats transpiring is all a ripple effect from last year. My son and I had a stark conversation in Spring of '20 as the recruitment season was ramping up. It boiled down to, even in the HA arena, if you weren't on the top of a chart in '20, he almost certainly wasn't getting recruited to that program in '21 given all of the circumstances. It was clear as day that seniors were taking 5th years, coaches couldn't recruit in person, and the dead period made matters worse. So early on, he decided to just push hard for the best D3 school he could. Not an easy emotional call , given that he had made serious progress and by then was putting up D1 level metrics, but he had to be realistically analytical, and non-emotional. And even with that, it was a tough road because a LOT of D1 level talent made the same choice. So there was a downstream impact.
Unfortunately, this is looking like the case for most 2022's as well. Maybe things will start to clear by next year. But for now, the marketplace is simply reacting to an unprecedented seismic event. It's bad timing for those classes, but you have to be real about what's happened and the impact on the market. I wish everyone still uncommitted the bast of luck over these next few weeks and months. This can be the toughest part of the ride, so hang tight.
My son's college went from 1 grad transfer and 6 seniors staying for a grad year in 2020 to no grad transfers and just one player staying for grad year (D3). The team also saw two players quit in spring (odd for his school) due to a crowded roster and one torn labrum where the pitcher won't make it back. So instead of 46 players, it's back down to 37-38 including 8 incoming Freshmen. This may not be normal for all schools but I think rosters are normalizing. That means, perhaps, normal recruiting classes going forward, however, if there is a continued backup in D1/D2 the classes in D2/D3 could be of better caliber.
My opinion is that fewer kids will seek the 5th year and just get on with life vs what we saw in 2020. 2020 5th year players were bigger in numbers likely due to fewer jobs available, the suddenness of losing senior years only 5 round MLB draft rounds Those three issues don't exist anymore.
I would think by 2023's recruiting will feel much more normal and certainly normal for 2024's. Just my opinion.
I talked to a HC from a D2 school in RMAC this weekend at a showcase event about the ‘22 recruiting class. He said their roster is full and they aren’t recruiting any ‘22s. Every school is different but I’m hearing more stories like this than I am the opposite.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:My son's college went from 1 grad transfer and 6 seniors staying for a grad year in 2020 to no grad transfers and just one player staying for grad year (D3). The team also saw two players quit in spring (odd for his school) due to a crowded roster and one torn labrum where the pitcher won't make it back. So instead of 46 players, it's back down to 37-38 including 8 incoming Freshmen. This may not be normal for all schools but I think rosters are normalizing. That means, perhaps, normal recruiting classes going forward, however, if there is a continued backup in D1/D2 the classes in D2/D3 could be of better caliber.
My opinion is that fewer kids will seek the 5th year and just get on with life vs what we saw in 2020. 2020 5th year players were bigger in numbers likely due to fewer jobs available, the suddenness of losing senior years only 5 round MLB draft rounds Those three issues don't exist anymore.
I would think by 2023's recruiting will feel much more normal and certainly normal for 2024's. Just my opinion.
If I remember correctly your son is at a HA D3. It may be at this level where kids deal in reality on getting on with their life there are more job interview opportunities than last year.
If I was a college age kid looking for a job I would be freaked out by interviewing for a job via Zoom. It’s hard to read body language.
My daughter is five years removed from law school. A few months ago she interviewed for a very high paying job (major law firm, five years experience as prosecutor) without ever meeting the people in person or visiting the law office. It was all done by Zoom. Even with her experience and poise she said it was a little unnerving. I’m shocked the firm would offer what they did without ever meeting her in person.
@RJM posted:Even with her experience and poise she said it was a little unnerving. I’m shocked the firm would offer what they did without ever meeting her in person.
I am sure they weren’t thrilled but what were the options? They had a need and obviously the needed revenue, if she is the wrong person she will released soon enough, if she is right it will be fine.
shit happened very day last year none of us would ever have dreamed of.
Danj, my ENFP bro!
I've posted most of this before, I think, but my 2021 college grad interviewed for 2020 summer internships with several financial firms via FaceTime because he was 6 time zones to their EAST, studying in Italy. Well, at least, he said that's what he was doing there.
Anyway, he managed to get several internship offers via the FaceTime route, putting him WAY ahead of the curve for what was about to happen with COVID. The company he chose honored their internship offer (when many similar companies were pulling the plug on internships) and he spent the 2020 summer doing the internship 6 time zones to the WEST from headquarters. All on Zoom.
Then they emailed him a real job offer, which he accepted on-line, in August, 2020. Then he studied his whole senior year on-line, like so many other kids. Finally, he left home for the East Coast and real life in about a month ago and started working in an office that has essentially been deserted. Practically everyone is still working from home. He STILL hasn't met his boss face-to-face. The office was supposed to fully open in a month but the current situation may prevent that from happening.
I agree with RJM. I don't know how you hire someone via Zoom. But, I also don't think what happened to my son is gonna stop. Zoom/video is just too convenient and cheap to use, and I think it'll continue being a basic method for recruiting unless the hires consistently turn out badly,
Back to the OT, as far as my 2022 D3 is concerned, he's received some offers that are very appealing. What's unclear to us at this point is if those offers will have a shorter shelf life than the offers his older two brothers got.
I'm nervous about it. I want him to get to at least mid September before he pulls an ED trigger. I think it's gonna take that long for coach's supports to manifest themselves, but I would understand why some coaches would want to get those commitments lined up asap.
@old_school posted:I am sure they weren’t thrilled but what were the options? They had a need and obviously the needed revenue, if she is the wrong person she will released soon enough, if she is right it will be fine.
shit happened very day last year none of us would ever have dreamed of.
She was heavily recommended by a third party. She won’t be in a courtroom very often anymore. As a prosecutor her conviction rate was high along with some very high profile convictions.
@adbono posted:I talked to a HC from a D2 school in RMAC this weekend at a showcase event about the ‘22 recruiting class. He said their roster is full and they aren’t recruiting any ‘22s. Every school is different but I’m hearing more stories like this than I am the opposite.
If not full then close to being full except for maybe a stud who luckily falls to them. Signing day is 3 months away. I doubt many D1 and D2 schools are still looking for many 22's at this point.
@RJM posted:She was heavily recommended by a third party. She won’t be in a courtroom very often anymore. As a prosecutor her conviction rate was high along with some very high profile convictions.
there ya go, heavily recommended by a trusted someone is always priceless and last year even more so! good for her.
Son's teammate (2022) was scheduled to visit a PSAC contender and was told the morning of his visit that they were full and not to make the trip.
Just for clarity D2 2022 recruiting for the most part appears over as Freshman classes are full? I think that is the gist. Adbono's post almost made it seem like they didn't recruit incoming 2022's but I think I read that incorrectly. I assume this is unusual for D2's to be basically complete with 2022's here in early August - right? I do think things will start to normalize for 2023's based on my earlier post but one thing I didn't mention was the new ability for one-time transfers without sitting out a year. That is likely a big impact for 2022's, maybe more so than the actual extra years of eligibility granted to the current college players.
In the D1 Baseball Transfer tracker looks like 25% of the 2,000 found new homes (I am sure it is not complete). How many of those that didn't get to transfer will give up baseball? A good portion I would guess. Perhaps the situation is not as bad for 2023.
I have no skin in the game.... just observations.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:Just for clarity D2 2022 recruiting for the most part appears over as Freshman classes are full? I think that is the gist. Adbono's post almost made it seem like they didn't recruit incoming 2022's but I think I read that incorrectly. I assume this is unusual for D2's to be basically complete with 2022's here in early August - right? I do think things will start to normalize for 2023's based on my earlier post but one thing I didn't mention was the new ability for one-time transfers without sitting out a year. That is likely a big impact for 2022's, maybe more so than the actual extra years of eligibility granted to the current college players.
In the D1 Baseball Transfer tracker looks like 25% of the 2,000 found new homes (I am sure it is not complete). How many of those that didn't get to transfer will give up baseball? A good portion I would guess. Perhaps the situation is not as bad for 2023.
I have no skin in the game.... just observations.
Let me clarify. One particular D2 coach told me that his existing roster was completely full and therefore they were not recruiting any 2022 players. So, it wasn’t that they were done with their class of 2022 recruiting, it was that there will be no 2022 recruiting class at that school whatsoever. I recognize that this is an extreme case but I was shocked by it.
@adbono posted:Let me clarify. One particular D2 coach told me that his existing roster was completely full and therefore they were not recruiting any 2022 players. So, it wasn’t that they were done with their class of 2022 recruiting, it was that there will be no 2022 recruiting class at that school whatsoever. I recognize that this is an extreme case but I was shocked by it.
I think this is a first and most likely a last!!
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:Just for clarity D2 2022 recruiting for the most part appears over as Freshman classes are full? I think that is the gist. Adbono's post almost made it seem like they didn't recruit incoming 2022's but I think I read that incorrectly. I assume this is unusual for D2's to be basically complete with 2022's here in early August - right? I do think things will start to normalize for 2023's based on my earlier post but one thing I didn't mention was the new ability for one-time transfers without sitting out a year. That is likely a big impact for 2022's, maybe more so than the actual extra years of eligibility granted to the current college players.
In the D1 Baseball Transfer tracker looks like 25% of the 2,000 found new homes (I am sure it is not complete). How many of those that didn't get to transfer will give up baseball? A good portion I would guess. Perhaps the situation is not as bad for 2023.
I have no skin in the game.... just observations.
The situation I reported was that their current 2022 class had filled up and that they were not taking any more 2022's. Ad's example is extreme and surprising, but not the same situation as the PSAC school.
@chazball posted:The situation I reported was that their current 2022 class had filled up and that they were not taking any more 2022's. Ad's example is extreme and surprising, but not the same situation as the PSAC school.
Yes, but I think we are all saying the same thing one way or another - opportunities are limited for 2022s. So if you receive an offer that checks most of the boxes you best take it as opposed to hoping something better will come along.
@adbono posted:Yes, but I think we are all saying the same thing one way or another - opportunities are limited for 2022s. So if you receive an offer that checks most of the boxes you best take it as opposed to hoping something better will come along.
Totally agree. This is affecting my 2022 and the way that he looks at his HA D3 search. Though it's early, he has gotten offers where the coaches are indeed talking about the timeline. I understand that this is not usually the situation for HA D3's in August, but it is the situation for my son with these schools this year.
The worst thing that NCAA could do at this point is re-visit the One-Time free transfer rule which I understand they are considering doing. This will allow the pool to be very murky for an extended period of time. It would allow any player not happy with either playing time or position to move with no penalty. If it is put into place as a permanent status it will change recruiting forever. It would allow players to jump from one team to another and take spots quickly. I know some will say coaches would not take these guys but I disagree. We have the Friday starter from another SEC school coming, the Saturday freshman starter from a very good mid-major coming, and the starting catcher from another P5 conference coming. We were also very close to getting the starting catcher from another SEC school but he decided to go pro at the last minute.
@chazball posted:Totally agree. This is affecting my 2022 and the way that he looks at his HA D3 search. Though it's early, he has gotten offers where the coaches are indeed talking about the timeline. I understand that this is not usually the situation for HA D3's in August, but it is the situation for my son with these schools this year.
Chaz, what kind of timeline are they giving your son? Is it about the same for each offer?
Thx
@old_school posted:I think this is a first and most likely a last!!
Could be as it relates to recruiting as a whole. But in terms of HS kids - I think their road is tougher than ever before. Which is why (unless they are HA) I advise so many to go the JuCo route. A couple of months ago a RC at a D1 Southland Conference school told me they were not recruiting any 2022 HS kids - only JuCo and players out of the transfer portal. His reasoning was that historically HS players that have come in as freshmen aren’t yet good enough to help them win. So they don’t play, get pissed about not playing, and turn into problems in the locker room. Instead of continuing to deal with that situation (which isn’t likely to change) they have opted to recruit experienced college players with proven performance on their resumes as long as that option is available to them. It’s hard to argue with that logic.
Just a different D2 sample: son is attending a smaller showcase here in GA this weekend. 11 D2 colleges are slated to be there. Checking the commit info on PG for the 11, only two of them had any commit listed for 2022. For 2021, the colleges ranged from 4 to 12 commits. Yes, that info is not 100% accurate, but it's also indicative that opportunities may remain at the D2 level in some regions.
As an aside, of the six NAIA colleges attending, only one has a commit. Of the three D3, only one commit there. Six D1 colleges, most are full, but two of the mid-majors have 6 or fewer commits (compared to a dozen or so in past years).
