Baseball Factory Tryout - age: almost 12

Is this for real? 

 

I cringed a little bit reading your report.  11 years old.  4'10", 105 lbs.  Has another year of Little League left I presume.

 

I'm loathe to offer my 2 cents when it hasn't been asked, but I have a brother who's killing his high school junior right now with showcases every weekend.  I overdid a bunch of things when my boys (2012 and 2016) were younger...they'll attest to that.

 

You are well intentioned.  And please be careful.  It's a long, long ride. 

4seamer, welcome to the site.  Can I ask what other things your son likes to do?  What are his other hobbies?  What does he do when he hangs around with his friends?  Yes, I'm going somewhere with this in an attempt to be as helpful as I can for you.

I took my son to a BF event when he was 11. I asked him if he wants to go, and told him no matter what, I'm okay with his response. He wanted to go so we took him. I told him no one is scouting an 11 year old and that it's perfectly okay to "choke." I told him there is no pressure and that this will be a good experience for him to see how he feels in a showcase event, because when he gets to te PG showcases in HS, he will not want to "choke."
He was the youngest one at the event, hustled his butt off, had a great time, and was out of his mind that he got to keep the shirt.
When we got his evaluation a few days later they told me how great he did relative for his age. He was fast on his htf (4.78) but he's a fast kid. They told me where he needed to improve and asked me if I would be interested in sending him to there camp in AZ. By the way I had two weeks to pay the 3k the camp costs.
At a young age you have to be careful. A lot of showcases will tell you what you want to hear. Nothing against BF, but PG is for real. The showcases that matter are in HS, especially jr year. In my opinion, it's best to see if he can get on a quality travel team, if he's not on one already. A good travel team will get him to the right tournaments. Showcases can run a second mortgage in a hurry if you get caught up in them.

4seamer I know you are excited about baseball and getting to do this with your son.  I am happy that the two of you have a baseline to work from....BUT....I have to say that those numbers are useless long term.

 

I have a 13 year old in 8th grade.  The averages around here for 8th grade (as I've seen them) are:

 

60 time = 7.5-8.0

Arm Strength = 70mph- 75mph

Pop time = 2.1-2.3

Exit velocity (I have no idea)

Home to 1B = I saw a lot of these during team tryouts, I don't recall seeing anyone over 5.0, typically landing between 4.1-4.5

Average pitching speed is 75-80mph.

Average height of player = 5'5-5'8

Average weight = 130-180#

 

I have no idea where they got their numbers from, but these are the numbers I have seen with my own eyes.

 

I am not saying your son isn't a great blocker/player, I'm sure he is for his age, but when his body changes it will be an entirely different kid.  His size and weight are an advantage right now, but he won't be able to move like that for much longer.

 

My six year old daughter and my 13 year old son often have a competition of who can hold the plank position longer, the 6 year old girl almost always wins because it's a lot easier to hold up 40 pounds with kid muscles than it is to hold up a 5'9, 160# kid with kid muscles.  The adult muscles are coming, but they aren't here yet. Until they arrive I'm not counting any stat he has.

 

 

 

I too think these numbers are a bit low.  I certainly don't see 75-80 as an AVERAGE on the mound like caco but none the less these numbers are low.  And a 61 exit velo in 8th grade would get you cut!  So I also am not sure how they arrived at these numbers.   But suddenly I am beginning to think I may be sane in the eyes of the old timers here after all!  It amazes me how many people do showcases and events so early.  Those who have had discussions with me before on here know I am a live and let live guy so i don't have an issue with it.  Its just not for me.  I have had in my head after freshman year for 2020.  And I think that remains unchanged.  And if his numbers aren't where they need to be by then maybe after soph year.  And if his numbers still aren't there....  never?  Time to pursue other things?  Let's face it with radar guns and stopwatches readily available nobody really needs to do an event for 'evaluation' purposes.  I always know where my son stands and so does he.  When (and if) he has numbers that will get him recruited then its off to the showcase.  Til then he will keep on working.

I have to think CaCo's numbers relate to AAA/Majors travel players and not middle school players. But regardless they are from the pool most likely to move on to high school ball.

 

You don't know what an eleven year old player will become. You don't know if he'll have the passion next year. I've seen kids who loved baseball all of a sudden give it up for another sport. Feed the passion. But don't push it. It's your son's turn to play.

 

in our area the only kids who did Baseball Factory were second tier players whose fathers thought they were top shelf. It was seen as a money grab.

 

 

I have said this on the site several times before, and many others have as well - what a kid is at 12 very rarely corresponds to what the kid will be in high school. 

 

Our 2018 was around 5'6 & 115 pounds at 12 and squarely in the middle of the pack. He's now 6'2 165 and still growing. How would a 12 year old "evaluation" correspond to what he is now as a sophomore? When he was playing Majors Little League / 50-70 / 13u travel ball, out of the 15 kids that would have ranked the "best" then, only 6 of them are still playing baseball as sophomores, and only 4 of those kids have a shot at making an impact on their varsity baseball team (whether now or next year). They were all outgrown, outplayed, focused on another sport or simply stopped wanting to play. 

 

Not looking to dampen the OP's enthusiasm, just noting that at 12 years old it should really be all about having fun and not worrying about "measurables" or "projection". 

CaCO3Girl, I'm going to have to ask for clarification. For home to first, are you referring to 80-foot bases? I mean, a 4.1 home-to-first for a right-handed batter would be plus-plus speed for a major leaguer! And it doesn't correlate with the 60-yard times you mentioned (see below). Unless maybe you are dealing with 80-foot bases.

 

Objective Tool Grades

	Tool Is Called	Fastball Velo	Batting Avg	Homers	RHH to 1B	LHH to 1B	60 Yd Run
80	80	97	.320	40+	4.00	3.90	6.3
75		96	.310	35-40	4.05	3.95	6.4
70	Plus Plus	95	.300	30-35	4.10	4.00	6.5
65		94	.290	27-30	4.15	4.05	6.6
60	Plus	93	.280	23-27	4.20	4.10	6.7
55	Above Avg	92	.270	19-22	4.25	4.15	6.8
50	Avg	90-91	.260	15-18	4.30	4.20	6.9-7.0
45	Below Avg	89	.250	12-15	4.35	4.25	7.1
40		88	.240	8-12	4.40	4.30	7.2
35		87	.230	5-8	4.45	4.35	7.3
30		86	.220	3-5	4.50	4.40	7.4

 

And I'm going to disagree about pitching velocity. In my opinion, there is zero chance the average pitching speed for an 8th grader is 75-80, even at the Majors level in a baseball hotbed.  We just went through it. 80 is top-end velocity for an 8th grader, particularly for the fall. When you get to next summer, it will start appearing more often (yes, 6 or 8 months can be a huge difference at this age), but it is still not average. The kids we know who touched 84 or 85 in the summer after 8th grade were touching 80-81 in the fall of 8th grade (with most of their fastballs in the upper 70s), and these are super high-end kids. Like, USA National team kids.

Sorry for commenting on this post again, but I am struck by how many 2019, 2020, and earlier folks are on the board.  It's great to gain an understanding of the process as early as possible.  And if your kid is 105 lbs., it's a long, long way to go.

 

GS nailed this as have others.  Good grief!  11 years old. 

 

In my experience with a 2012 and 2016, at LL age, we didn't look at measurement of baseball tools.  It's irrelevant at age 11 or prepubescent ages.  We focused on baseball as fun.  And we began skills development outside of LL, e.g., batting or pitching lessons.

 

At some point in a kid's hs years (if they still want to play baseball) developing strength, speed, quickness, etc., becomes possible and important.  Measuring baseball tools is then more interesting and germane.

 

 

 

The whole prepubescent and postpubescent seems lost on a lot of folks when discussing this age group.  I remember the hulking stud football player in 5th grade - stopped growing around 6th grade (about the time he started shaving) and was one of the smaller kids at graduation.  Also, the process of puberty can be short or long.  I think the advice to not throw a curve ball until you start to shave is excellent - it sort of divorces calendar age from physical maturity, the latter being much more important when trying to understand when a kid is ready to showcase his talents.

Ok the one thing I still have to disagree with - as I did when I first joined and as I suspect I will when I die or leave the board - is this idea that you can't project 12 year olds...  as I have said before I am old and was a coach long before being a parent.  The same kids (yes with a few exceptions) we identified in our camps were the same kids who were later successful varsity players.  My son is now going into 14u.  And again with very few exceptions the same kids who were talented at 9 are the same kids who are still talented at 14.  And I suspect in a couple years I will say at 16.  I think where this disconnect comes from is how we define 'good' or 'stud' etc.  I guess I have always looked at kids and thought to myself is that a player when he is 18?  Yes there are some kids who have a little success early on and later fail.  But I think a trained eye would have predicted most of those failures.   Therefore they are not truly studs at any point regardless if they hit a few 205 ft. Home runs at 12.  I think the other thing that contributes to this is the idea that kids on travel teams are automatically considered 'studs'.  Other than the big big time travel teams every travel team has some questionable players.  So to say later down the road "oh look at that 'stud' ha ha ha from the travel team now.  He didn't even make his jv team."  Again he was never a stud in the first place!  Now granted hs baseball around here is a bit watered down but there are only two or three players on my son's team who are not slam dunks to make high school teams.  And very good chance they all do.  Now if one of them decides not to play to focus on the weight room for football...  thats not really a fail that is a choice.  From the experiences of my childhood to my coaching and now parenting I can say with very few exceptions that the studs (real studs) at 12 were still studs at say 16.

2020dad,

 

This is amazing reading you post!  While you were posting I started another thread, I think you to will be amazed by the timing.

 

The bases were 90, the kid that ran the 4.1 was VERY tiny for 14u and super fast.  That is why I mentioned the nothing over 5.0 comment.

 

As for pitching, RJM nailed it, I am witnessing higher level players.  However, as RJM mentioned these are the kids most likely to go onto playing in HS and beyond.  Perhaps we should evolve 2 standards.  Average baseball player, and highly competitive team average baseball players.

 

13u Major pitchers are approaching 80, and 14u Major pitchers are expected to be well over 80 by the end of Spring. At my son's high school there were 2 pitchers chosen from the sophomore class this summer to be on the HS team, both sit mid 80's. Pull up the PG tourney records of the 13u or even the 12u tourneys and take a look at the all tournament pitchers...I think you will be surprised by what is actually being thrown.

       
       
Lol.  We must have some sort of connection today...  cause then while you were on this thread posting that it was 'amazing' we were pretty much posting the same thing at the same time I was on your thread saying it was almost 'eerie' that we posted such similar things at the same time!  This board can be so fun sometimes!

4Seamer,

what was he trying out for?

OK. Just so we're clear, the kid running a 4.1 home-to-first should run about a 6.5 sixty-yard dash. That is the equivalent grade over 60 yards, per the chart. My point was it seems odd to say kids range from 4.1 to 4.5 for home to first, and 7.5 to 8.0 for sixty yards. Those are not in alignment.

 

In terms of pitching velocity, we're going to have to agree to disagree. But it seemed odd to me that kids in Georgia and Florida throw so much harder than kids in Southern California, so I took your advice and looked up the all-tournament team from last summer for the Perfect Game 13U World Series. A mix of 2020 and 2019 kids -- in other words, kids heading into 8th grade and kids finishing 8th grade. Keep in mind, the velocity shown by PG is the top velocity, not where a kid sits. Here are the top velocities for the first dozen pitchers on the all-tournament team (in alphabetical order; there are way more pitchers than that, but I got tired of looking them up):

 

(1) 78

(2) 80

(3) 70

(4) 80

(5) 79

(6) 77

(7) 82

(8) 73

(9) 72

(10) 73

(11) 71

(12) 70

 

Those are kids on the all-tournament team, not "average" Majors pitchers, and those are their top velocities, not where their average fastball is.

 

To be honest, I don't know what the top PG tournaments are for 13U, so I also looked up the PG Super 25 13U all-tourney team (google had the World Series and Super 25 as the top two results). Here are the top velocities for the first 12 pitchers listed on the all-tournament team (though these were not listed in alphabetical order, this is the order they were in on the PG site): 

 

(1) 73

(2) 74

(3) 75

(4) 68

(5) 72

(6) 73

(7) 75

(8) 74

(9) 75

(10) 78

(11) 65

(12) 70

 

Of the 24 pitchers listed above, about a third were class of 2019. After doing this digging on the PG all-tournament teams, I am not surprised by what is actually being thrown. If we assume the average fastball is 2 mph below the peak velocity -- which I think is a fair assumption -- I stand by my comment that 80 mph for an 8th grader in the fall is top notch, even for a Majors pitchers.

2019 Dad - totally agree. Our varsity HS team advanced several rounds into the CIF playoffs and only had two guys breaking 85 as SENIORS. JV team went 19-1 and had one kid break 80 (and he has a D1 verbal without having played one inning of varsity). Frosh team went like 16-4 and had ZERO kids break 80. And this is in one of the best high school leagues in the country - 10+ D1 kids and draft picks every year come out of this league. 

 

Re: 4.1 home to first time for a junior high kid...not saying its impossible as our 2018 (RH) did the same as an 8th grader, but it was also noted at the college camp where he was timed that he'd be the fastest kid on their D3 college team. 4.4 home to first is big league average for a righty - not the "average" time of junior high kids. Of 2018's current high school team, only 2 out of 21 broke 4.5 seconds home to first, and there were multiple 5.0+ times. Can't just throw numbers like that around lightly, it just isn't the case. 

My kid is painfully slow so I reject any idea that speed is the most important thing lol.  Because of this I don't pay much attention to those times - not sure it matters anyway for pitchers.  But I will say we have one kid (now an 8th grader) that is just lightning fast.  I will time him home to 1st next year and mark my calendar to report back!  As for the 75-80...   I guess like anything else its relative.  What is the average weight?  Well I guess it depends if you are talking about elephants or mice!  Average very top level kids?  I suppose 75-80 is correct.  Average 8th grader overall in the entire nation?  Not a chance.  What I can tell you is I gunned probably a dozen give or take a few all year in 13u ball over 70mph.  Only three above 75 and one above 80. Technically I gunned even him at 79 but his dad (stop yourself, he is a friend, a good guy, and doesn't need to pad his son's already terrific numbers) said he was gunned later in the year at 82.  So personally gunned zero at 80 and above.  And yes even up here in the north we have kids who can throw hard!  Now I know PG sees a lot more quality pitchers.  But as 2019 pointed out with his research the vast majority are in the 70's.  And by the way 2019 would be interesting when you a trip out the magic birthday kids (2019's) to see what the average is then!

2019dad, I just sent you a list of 5 names that are 2021's and 2020's that were in last year's 12u PG event, they are all over 73mph.  Some pitchers are named to the all tournament team because of style or grace under pressure, or other intangible.  While others are listed solely for their ERA, and some for their incredible speed. I don't think you pulled the ones for their speed. My kid faced 3 of those pitchers that I sent you...if you haven't seen 75mph from a 50 foot mound let me tell you, it is impressive!

 

Golden Sombrero, We must be seeing different things, that's all I can say.

Thanks, I know there are kids like that. I've seen them. 2019Son has played with or against a bunch of USA Baseball National Team players. Last fall in 8th grade was the last time that he has batted against the #3 ranked kid in the class of 2019 (per PG) -- and that kid was sitting at about 80 at that time. And there was another pitcher on that team (who also previously played on a USA Baseball National Team) who threw just as hard.

 

So we agree that those kids are out there. And you're right -- I didn't select the ones known for their speed. I just looked up the first dozen on the all-tournament team (which I'm guessing on average throw harder than the average pitcher in the tournament). But if you're talking about averages, I don't think it's right to just select the five hardest throwers. 

 

Fortunately or unfortunately, over the last two years I watched a ton of 13U and 14U Majors baseball games in as much of a baseball hotbed as anywhere in the country (and Iiving in a county with a population about equal to the entire state of Georgia), and I can say unequivocally that the average fastball in those games was not 75-80. Maybe it is elsewhere, but not here.

I hate to be another to rain on the OP's parade but nothing about any of those measurable mean anything. BF wants your money and will tell you what you want to hear so you will continue to spend MORE money with them. SAVE your money and invest in good quality training and a travel team that will develop your son. 5th and 6th graders aren't being recruited. You as the parent are being recruited...Well, let me be a bit more specific. Your pocketbook is being recruited. Take it from a parent who has been through this and made mistakes. Sit down with your son and make sure HE wants to put in the time to train and work to become the best player he can and then support him anyway you can through time wise and financially but don't waste your time and money on BF and showcases as an 11 year old.  

CaCO3Girl said: "if you haven't seen 75mph from a 50 foot mound let me tell you, it is impressive!"

 

My 11yo caught three of the 12u pitchers you may have named to 2019dad throwing above 75 (initials: EW, AR, and IC) at Cooperstown in August off 50' mounds. And at TUSA 12u Futures (51' mound). And at 12u NABC. And at 12u PG FL regionals. One of those boys hit 84 with TUSA. Likely all three throwing above 80 but to be safe, I'll say 75+. We faced several of the top teams in the nation and only found one other pitcher throwing above 75 (TUSA, Team Cali - hit 78). I agree with you - that velo from 50' is impressive.

 

But what nearly all people fail to realize is that there are very few receivers who can handle that velocity. By handling I mean blocking too. My son had to train with a D3 pitcher throwing from 50' for several months to even have a chance. And he did well.. even made all-tournament team in one of the events. But I've seen NUMEROUS broken thumbs, balls off masks, chest protectors, and side of the head from turning. While you might be able to count on two hands the number of kids throwing 80+ around the country, I'd wager there are half as many catchers who can handle them. 

 

I love the observations talk - just what I was hoping for.

One of the most amazing things I have ever seen was at a 12 year old tournament we did at East Cobb  years ago.

 

I walked down to watch one of the games and I will never forget what I saw.  12 year olds, some looked like they were barely 4 foot tall and a 6'3" pitcher throwing so hard that it looked extremely dangerous, especially from that distance.  I felt like calling the game off, but didn't.

 

I went to our guiy behind the screen and asked how hard this kid was throwing. He was up to 84 mph at 12 years old.  I was used to watching the Little League World series and seeing the top guys in the 60s or low 70s.  Then having them flash the MLB equivilant speed on the screen in the 90s. If you added an additional 1/3 it would be 120+ mph.  That is a speed that ML hitters would suffer at.  Only this was against little 4 foot tall 12 year olds. Luckily he didn't hurt anyone other than some parents and I that damn near had a heart attack.

 

Never seen anything quite like that! Which reminds me, I need to look that kid up and see where he is now.

There's a lot that gets in the way of choosing which twelve year olds will succeed down the road. A lot of it has nothing to do with baseball. I believe you can look at an athletic twelve year old with athletic parents and predict the kid will have potential. It's the kids without athletic parents who are hard to predict. As I mentioned  passed on two man-children coming out of LL to form my 13u team. Both had small parents. Neither made their high school's varsity.

 

As for catching a 75 mph throwing 12yo try doing it from 46 feet. My son did. The kid lacked control. My son (5', 90 at the time) got the crap beat out of him blocking pitches. This was just before pitch counts. This kid threw a no hitter in sections. He whiffed fifteen, walked seven and hit five. The three outs were foul pops. No one hit the ball fair all game. But imagine the pitches my son had to block with seven walks and five hit batters. The head coach named the kid Maalox.

4seamer, I hear you on the catcher thing.  Catchers are vital for the pitcher to succeed.  In one game the poor 12u kid catching my son had multiple passed balls, 4 dropped third strikes and during one especially hard pitch the poor kid was actually blown off his feet and onto his butt (he actually caught that one though ;-). A great catcher can turn a good pitcher into a great pitcher.  Sadly that isn't widely known below 14u.

PGStaff, don't beat yourself up about the man child 12 year old.  Shame on his parents for not getting him on a team where he could be challenged rather than blowing the other kids away.  We the parents pay a lot of money to watch our kids play.  While it may be interesting to see a superior pitcher that isn't playing baseball, that's not putting two teams against each other to fight it out based on skill, that is one kid who got hit by the puberty stick early living it up when he should have been playing against kids that would challenge his actual placement, not just his speed.

       
       
One thing to think about though is line drives back at the pitcher.  While I am sure that kid could have played up...  how far up?  He could get people out at about any age.  But what happens if he plays 15u and some monster hits one back at him with an 115mph exit velo?  Any kid throwing 80+ around here can pitch varsity.  If my son is 80+ as a freshman I am mot sure I want him pitching above jv.  Its not always about where you can get outs.

       
       


Short version, at 6'3 you play up until you are challenged.  Watching your pitches sail by 4 foot tall 80 pound kids isn't being challenged.  If you aren't challenged you don't get better or learn.

       
       
So you completely dismiss the idea that a young power pitcher may not be ready to field a 115mph line drive?

FWIW, according to the PG database, the average velo for a 2021 grad is 63, 2020 grad is 68 mph, and 2019 is 72 mph.

 

The other issue with playing up isn't just physical.  You can be a 6'3" kid, but not ready to socialize with kids 2-3 years older.  Just because you're a big kid, doesn't mean you're socially ready. Big difference between an 11 year old and a 14 year old socially. Your friends and social age aren't dictated by your height/size. There's plenty of time to be "challenged."  It's up to the individual parents and player.

       
       
Hahaha according to trackman the top 10 13U (8th graders) pitchers at the PG fall invitational ranged from 77-70 at the 14U (old 8th graders) the top 10 was 83-78 and that's the top ball they threw. Pretty hard to say 8th graders in any part of the world average 75-80 when the top 10 pitchers in a big tourney barely average those speeds. Remember average includes the bottom ones too. Son just played 14U majors last summer and we played plenty of teams from the area your talking about. Yes I did see 80 a few times but the average was more like 70 and again those were the top 8th graders not the average ones.

Statement like this are why velocity discussion get so blown out of proportion.

Scotty83, I did qualify that I was talking about MAJOR 13u and 14u teams.  They would be the ones in those tournaments, so, I think you backed up my data perfectly.  Thank you.

Mcloven: when dealing with 12u teams they have 12-14 kids, everyone pitches. The data about averages is skewed because of this. When you have 18 kids on a team and 7 of them are pitcher only then you get more accurate trackman data.

2020dad, fielding is part of the game. If my kid was 6'3 I'd rather he pitch against BBCOR bats than throwing that heat at drop 10 bats from 50 feet.  That sounds more dangerous to me.

I think the data I pulled from the Super 25 and World Series showed that the average velocity was not 75-80. If you pick the five hardest throwers (like you did) at one of those tournaments, or the ten hardest throwers (like Scotty did), then, sure, 75-80 in the fall of 8th grade sounds right. But that is not an *average* at those tournaments. It's just not.

CaCO if that data I posted backs up your statement then the "average" HS velocity is 93, the "average" IQ is 143, and the "average" net worth is 30 billion. Top 1% and average are not the same thing.

Again this is how velocities get blown so out of perportion.

Just a thought from someone with boys past puberty...

 

Our 2014 son was extremely tall, always taller than his teammates in every sport. Tallest does not always equal BEST.  He never played up because he always wanted to play with his friends.  Level of baseball was always challenging enough because of where we live and because there was always something he could work on. From the teams he played on, many collegiate players (including a D1 weekend starter as a freshman).  

 

You are all talking about boys not yet in high school.  Please relax -- they are not (yet) professional athletes!  It should be about fun and development!  I know some of us are saying that, but heed those words.  You will blink and be in the midst of the recruiting process and dropping your boys off at college soon enough.  But you are not there yet, and no need to get there any faster.  

 

On an aside, I also worry about the arm care of these young flamethrowers.  

       
       
As YOU pointed out none of the 12 year olds will hit the ball and it is not a.challenge for the pitcher.  Can't have it both ways.  I can only worry about MY son.  If things go well for him and they want him varsity as a freshman I will politely ask them if they could at least start him off at JV.  I don't want him as a freshman stRing down those handful of guys he might face who are abo ut to get drafted or go D1.  The big strong mature 18 year olds who could put the implant of the ball in the middle of his forehead bef Ire he even realizes its coming.  Now given this particular 12 year old PG referenced I am sure He could have played up.  But maybe not to the level where he would be 'challenged'.  His safety is also important.   And fielding is a part of the game - getting hit upside the head by a large angry 18 year old doesn't have to be part of the game at least until you have fully matured and are better prepared to defend yourself.  Incidentally my son uses bbcor even though he doesn't have to out of respect for the pitcher.  In fall ball he hit one on the screws right back at the pitcher (with bbcor) thank god not at his head.  The game was stopped for five minutes.  The pitcher was so shaken he was crying on the mound.  Never saw that before.  Imagine if he was using a hot drop 5 or worse yet a drop 8 or 10 and that ball was a little higher.  There is no need for this in the game...  haven't started a thread in a while.  Think I will now!