High School Pitching Velocity

quote:

Originally posted by itsinthegame:
... he responded like an immature child.

Well, he is far from alone...

Yeah - thats another brilliant one liner.

LOL

And while we are at it - why didnt he answer the same question he posed to me?

I answered it. Very specifically.

And when I asked him to answer the very same question - he threw out one liners - and another litany of diversions.

How totally bogus.
IMO.

Back to the original question.

Did a quick and dirty tally of the PG National Underclass (held 12/06). Looked at '08 pitchers. Before anyone nitpicks, I may well have missed one or two (or three even). Or inadvertently included an '09. Or otherwise have messed up.

Of the 111 '08 pitchers:
Average: 83 mph
Mode: 82 mph
Median: 83 mph
Maximum: 94 mph
Minimum: 70 mph

73 of the 111 were at 85 mph or below.
22 of the 111 were in the 70's.
75 of the 111 were in the 80's.
14 of the 111 were in the 90's.

I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.

FWIW

quote:

I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.

Wonder what % of HS players ever go to ANY showcase, let along one that elite and expensive. Maybe 10%. Probably less. Pitchers who go are those who feel they have good "showcase appeal," mostly meaning they throw hard.

Even then, 83 mph is average at that event.

I'll guess that 80% of 90mph hurlers have been to one or more showcases versus <10% of sub-70mph pitchers.

I would guess that you are in the ballpark on those figures.

Texan and Micdsguy,

You very well could be correct. But if you want to see the most mind boggling numbers ever, checkout these results from The PG National held at U of Arkansas this past June. Thought you might enjoy these crazy numbers.

PG National June 06
All high school pitchers

98 total pitchers

All 98 Were 86 MPH or higher

31 Were in the 80S

67 Were in the 90S

16 Were 94 or higher

25 LHP average – 90.32 MPH
73 RHP average – 91.30 MPH
Total average of 98 pitchers – 91.05 mph

This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.

I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
Wonder what % of HS players ever go to ANY showcase, let along one that elite and expensive. Maybe 10%. Probably less. Pitchers who go are those who feel they have good "showcase appeal," mostly meaning they throw hard.

Even then, 83 mph is average at that event.

I'll guess that 80% of 90mph hurlers have been to one or more showcases versus <10% of sub-70mph pitchers.

With a little bit of rough math, some crude assumptions, and perhaps a little help from PGStaff, we can prolly get a reasonable number.

According to the High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the NFHS during the 2005-06 season, there were 470,671 baseball participants, in 15,290 schools.

See: http://www.nfhs.org/web/2006/09/participation_in_high_s...ain_confirms_nf.aspx

Since we don’t know how many total HS teams there are, we have to play some games.

Using the above numbers, it works out to almost 31 players per school. Based on my meager experience, that works out to something less than 3 teams per school, since most HS’s have at least 15 players per team, so let’s call it 2 teams per school. That would mean there are approximately 30,580 total teams. Fr, Jv, and V.

Again, based on my limited experience, I’d say there might be an average of 6 P’s per team who get more than a few token or mop up innings. That would be 183,000+ pitchers. I suppose an argument could be made that in most cases, only V P’s have the skills necessary to even bother going through the expense of a showcase, but for the sake of trying to answer micdsguy’s above quoted initial question, its immaterial.

So assuming that 183K number is reasonable, all that would have to happen is we’d need to know how many different, not total, P’s went to showcases at all. Very likely, since PG is by far the big dawg in show case providers, if PGStaff could tell us how many different kids went to their showcases, we’d begin to get a much clearer picture.

Wow...those numbers are pretty scary.

That must've been some showcase.



PGStaff....you have a PM.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.

That was one of my points.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.

Don't doubt your numbers, obviously. But what percent does 98 pitchers constitute of all the HS pitchers in the country?

Pretty miniscule, I would think. According to this site, there are approximately 455,000 baseball players. I would estimate that approximately 25-30% of them pitch. So you are talking about 0.09% of the country's pitchers who attended the National. Hardly what we could call "average". Certainly shows the quality of athlete PG is drawing.

PGStaff: Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.

Did those kids have to pay you to attend?
Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas). Where did names come from for the invitation list?

--
183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.

If you didn't throw at least 86, you weren't invited.

90 is much rarer when you consider that virtually all kids who throw 90 do SOME HS pitching. So you should consider that 500 at 90mph to be from a universe of 470,000 "baseball participants" and not just 183,000 pitchers.

99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.

Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?

quote:

PGStaff: Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.

Yes

Did those kids have to pay you to attend?

Yes

Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas).

Yes

Where did names come from for the invitation list?

Our core business is scouting. We rank players. We invite the players we would rank the highest. Our job is to know who the best prospects are. The names come off of our own list, with some help from some friendly MLB Scouting departments.

--
183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.

500 is probably tretching it a bit. I'd say about half that would be closer in most years. No matter how you look at it, it is a very small percentage.

quote:

If you didn't throw at least 86, you weren't invited.

Texan, We had reason to believe all the pitchers who were invited would at least touch 90. It just never works out that way.

quote:

Originally posted by Scorekeeper:

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.

Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?

If the pitchers who have good command also have a good live arm, then they would get the attention of scouts. If they throw loli pops, they won't get any attention. If you throw 87-88 with command, you will get attention. If you throw 80-81 with command, you won't

quote:

quote:
Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.


Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?

scorekeeper,

Yes, everyone cares about command and control... They jus care about it a whole lot more when a pitcher can throw 90+. Why would anyone think the pitchers mentioned lacked command and control?

One, a high school pitcher from Arizona threw mid 90s. As a junior in high school he struck out 122 and walked 8. At 6'7 his best pitch is the slider.

And again we must differentiate between the college prospect and the pro prospect---they don't necessarily get lumped together

I was kinda askin’ tongue in cheek, but I’ve always felt that if someone was so gifted with the kind of command it would take to be in the top .1% of all HS P’s, he’d would have to have value on that alone. Of course that’s assuming he can throw the ball with any kind of velocity, if he’s not a KB thrower.

Unfortunately, as I’ve repeatedly said, there is no objective way to measure command that I know of, so the question is pretty moot. After all, its not like there’s a target up there with points awarded for getting closest to the bull’s eye, is there. ;-)

But all the arguing aside, from what I’ve been told and seen, a player who is in the top .1% in any baseball skill is a valuable commodity. Speed, fielding ability, velocity, power, or anything else at that level will get somebody’s attention.

quote:

And again we must differentiate between the college prospect and the pro prospect---they don't necessarily get lumped together

TRhit

TR, That is a very good point, I think I understand what you mean, but I believe the majority of those referred to above will in fact end up in college. Even though they are good pro prospects.

One point that always seems to get lost in these velocity discussions is... Maybe about 100, or even less, pitchers will be drafted and signed out of high school in a year. Yet we all know there are many more good pitchers than that. The DIs don't get them all, but those are the ones they are looking for.

I could be wrong, but I keep hearing about all these DI pitchers who throw in the 70s. Who and where are they? I'm sure there are a few, but I just don't see it! Are people looking at curveball or off speed velocities? If that were true about those 70 something mph pitchers, then the average high school pitcher is a DI prospect! (Back to the original topic) By some of the guesstimates I read, the below average high school pitcher is a DI prospect at that velocity, if he can pitch.

I just wish someone would tell me who all these 70 mph guys are that are being recruited and pitching at the DI level.

Isn't the fastball still the main pitch in baseball? Without it, the other stuff isn't as effective. Can a "good" fastball be in the 70s? I'm just asking?

I don't mean this to discourage any young pitcher. If they throw in the 70s, they should work at increasing their velocity. Or they should gear in on the majority of colleges, the small colleges, which far outnumber the DIs.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Can a "good" fastball be in the 70s? I'm just asking?

Theoretically, yes.

It would have to move like crazy (and late) and ideally you'd pair it up with a change-up that was virtually indistinguishable from it (but slow enough to still screw a guy up).

It would also be nice if the guy had a 12-6 hit-me-if-you-can curveball.

All of that is possible, but asking a lot.

PGStaff,

You’ve heard someone say there were P’s throwing in the 70’s that were recruited? As bad as I am, I’ve never ever heard anything like that. I’ve seen more than a few walk on college P’s who couldn’t hit 80 with a big tailing wind, but never one recruited.

I don’t know if a “good” FB can be in the 70’s, but does it take a “good” FB to get out every college hitter?

I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!

And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Texan, We had reason to believe all the pitchers who were invited would at least touch 90. It just never works out that way.

Awww, I was just kidding you a little...

quote:

Originally posted by Scorekeeper:


I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!

And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.

Scorekeeper - just my observations.

I am now in that position with a son that plays D-2 ball. And I wouldnt get ticked off at what other people say. First - they arent playing the game - they are talking - and sometimes writing. But they aint playing. They are not "In the game" - LOL

Second - and as you well know - a quick peek at the stats - the MLB rosters - and the backgrounds of the players will tell you all you need to know about this issue.

It is sometimes difficult to accurately express opinions on a messageboard.

I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.

scorekeeper,

If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!

Here is just one example of many around the country. I have a sr that is a RHP also very good posistion player. He is 6'3 180 runs a 6.8 60 and hit 8 hrs last year and drove in 38 runs in 29 games. At a recent showcase he threw 94 mph on a jugs and 92 on a stalker consistently. He will not be going to a D-1 school he will be attending a JC in the area. Why? Grades. He has been contacted by several D-1 programs but the fact is he does not have the academic requirements to attend. How many more players are there out there like this? How many late bloomers are out there? Guys who go D-3 or D-2 that came out of HS a little small or a little slow or maybe they were mid 80's guys and after a couple of years in college took off. There are numerous guys playing at the non D-1 level that are outstanding players. Heck we had a kid a few years ago that sat the bench and rarely took the hill. I think he pitched 6 or 7 innings his sr year. He was a 80 mph guy but had good size at 6-3 around 200lbs. He walked on at a local JC and by his second year was in the starting rotation throwing 88. He then transferred to a D-1 program and pitched two years there earning all conference honors. There are alot of different ways to reach your goals. Its not where you start the race but how you finish it.

I think for the kids out there who wont be going to a D-1 school to play baseball - or who will be - but wont be seeing alot of playing time - the posts from people like PG and Coach May - (guys who are as totally immersed in the game as a person can be) - are actually encouraging for these players.

What most people - (particularly those who dont "live with the game" or are "in the game") - say or write means nothing.

Work hard - play hard - and enjoy it. That is what matters IMO.

Coach May,

That's what I tell 'em at the golf course all the time.

"It's not how you drive but how you arrive" JK

Nick Markakis is a good JUCO example. He "just signed a huge contract with Orioles" yesterday.
A far cry from Young Harris College. Another one that comes to mind is Adam Loewen from Chipola who is also on the doorstep. peace shep

quote:

Originally posted by itsinthegame:
Scorekeeper - just my observations.

I am now in that position with a son that plays D-2 ball. And I wouldnt get ticked off at what other people say. First - they arent playing the game - they are talking - and sometimes writing. But they aint playing. They are not "In the game" - LOL

Second - and as you well know - a quick peek at the stats - the MLB rosters - and the backgrounds of the players will tell you all you need to know about this issue.

Yeah, my brain knows that’s true, but after watching my son overcome the obstacles he did, which no kid should ever have to do, I became much more attuned than most, to the angst those ignorant fools “talking”, could do to kids and families.

There’s no way of knowing how many players that kind of ignorance causes to leave the game, and it’s a terrible reason for kids to stop playing. The worst thing is, it doesn’t just happen at the college level, it happens as low as when kids just aren’t good enough to make the All Star traveling team from their little league, and it continues from there.

I like to see the message that every player who loves the game, should do his best to keep playing! Kids who get to play for the best, with the best, and against the best, certainly have advantages. But no matter if it’s a big D1 school like USC, or a tiny JC in North Dakota, its still baseball, and no one knows what’s gonna happen between that HS Sr year and that last year of college.

My daddy told me "Dont come to me with excuses boy, bring me solutions or shut the hell up"! Thats not a joke thats the truth. I refuse to allow anyone to controll my destiny, period. I will do that. My children have been taught the same thing. There will always be skeptics. There will always be people who doubt you. There will always be people who will throw roadblocks in your way. And life itself will throw obstacles in your way. SO WHAT!!! No fn excuses , they mean nothing to me. If you want it go do it. Hell everyone has a million reasons why they didnt do this , couldnt do that. I frankly could careless about excuses. Bring me solutions.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
It is sometimes difficult to accurately express opinions on a messageboard.

TRUER WORDS WERE NEVER SPOKEN!

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.

I don’t think anyone on this board would belittle any college or any college player for any reason. Once you get to the point where that level becomes real, you realize just how hard it is to get there. But it does happen the lower level you are away from college. [/QUOTE]

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
scorekeeper,

If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!

Regarding what Coach May said, the two hardest throwers in our league are committed to JC ball.. because of grades.

It's too bad, because they are affable, likeable kids who communicate well. They're not dummies, and they're not bad-apples. They've been playing select ball their entire lives and it makes me wonder why they didn't put a lick of effort into their homework!

I think that, then I look back at myself at age 17. Had to go into the military to get some discipline, then come out and pay my own way through college. For some of these kids, they just need time to mature and they'll be okay. DI as a freshman is not for everyone.

JUCOs are full of brainy players who got only one or two scholarship offers to PLAY college ball. In terms of baseball, most D-3s are far inferior to top JUCO baseball programs. And it is a hoot to say you have a full scholarship to play, even if the school is nearly free to begin with. Many kids just want to stay around town.

Financially, a 20% scholy to a $40k D-1 is a great financial deal for the fancy university but not for Mom and Dad. Especially if junior sits for two years.


Many kids--even from JUCOs-- will go on to graduate school in time. Where a student spends his first two years isn't important in the long term.

A significant portion of the very best players in Texas go JUCO so they will remain draft eligible, rather than having to wait until after their Junior year.

Sometimes we throw out the "D1" term, thinking about the top D1's in the country. In reality, there are more than a few weak D1's out there. And some strong JUCO, D2, D3 & NAIA programs.

Are there truly strong D-3 programs (except when a school lucks into a couple of really strong pitchers who bloomed late.

I've looked at the bios of players on our local D-3s. Most players had pretty pedestrian baseball resumes in HS. Bench types. Seems many of the better players come in as JUCO transfers during the junior year. Ivy Leagues may be a bit different.

--
No question Top D-2s can be ferocious. Plenty of Sunbelt JUCOs could regularly beat low D-1s