how hard do I have to throw to go D1

Good luck Gavin.  Please do your research or even post another question about innings pitched, pitches thrown, and general arm care.  Lots of conflicting advice out there, but please form a plan on paper.  Those are a lot easier to follow.

Are your parents, or perhaps an older sibling, helping you?  Lots of information to sift through...I can't even imagine my 14 year old coming on here and asking anything, he's still trying to figure out which shirt best matches his work out shorts and how best to wear his glasses on his hat, lol!  

If you have questions go ahead and ask them, it's why this board is here :-)

He's  still trying to figure out which shirt best matches his work out shorts and how best to wear his glasses on his hat, lol!

This stuff matters. My son didn't get nicknamed "Hollywood" in high school without an effort. He nailed quiet, confident cool with a 10. 

Gavin crowley posted:

CaCO3Girl posted:

Gavin crowley posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

RHP or lefty?   My son is at a mid-major D1.....there are plenty of guys throwing 85-86 on the teams he's played against over the past two years.  90+ will get you noticed by some bigger schools....especially if you're a lefty.  Keep in mind velo isn't the only thing.....college umpires seem to be tighter with their strike zone than HS, so being able to control the velo is probably just as (if not more) important than just throwing hard.  If you're at 83-84 as an 8th grader and have reasonable control....I'd say you've got a pretty good shot....that's easily the upper end of what 8th graders are throwing velocity wise.

Unfortunately I am a righty. I have wanted to be a left my whole life lol. My control is not perfect but it certainly isn't bad at all. I usually walk 1 or 2 if I throw a complete game. However, I tend to fall behind in counts sometimes and I am forced to come back. This rises my pitch count, but I normally get away with 90-95 pitches in a complete game. It's a little much, so I am working to get that down.

Gavin, how many innings do you think you throw in a calendar year, like January-December?

I know I threw 45 for travel, not sure for middle school. I probably threw a total of 75-80 innings. Arm health is my #1 concern.

Hi Gavin!  Thanks for posting.

That's a lot of innings, but sometimes it is more important how the innings are spaced.  I think you know what I mean.  If you throw 2 innings on Friday, and then 4 more on Saturday, not the best.  Look up the pitch smart guidelines.  They are pretty good.  What I do for my son is write down the date, # of innings and # of pitches.  It helps to keep track.

Good luck and take care of that arm!

Hi Gavin. It sounds to me like your on the right track. Keep doing what you're doing and you'll be a stud!!!!!

I am watching the SEC tournament, Texas A&M pitcher is pretty consistent at 87-88 on the fastball...watch Miami vs. Georgia Tech earlier, pretty much the same. All this talk about 90+ in recruiting sure doesn't seem to translate on the field. As I speak Mizzou's Houck threw a 91 MPH FB and these announcers have really been talking him up.

Heard this in the stands at a recent game:

Scout1 "How'd he get this guy throwing 91?"

Scout2 "Recruited him when he threw 93."

(Don't forget to consider the huge difference in workload, pressure, and academics in college. Lots more innings the work horses throw when compared to HS; this time of year exhaustion sets in - think The Belmont's last 1/8 mile.)

90+ in recruiting is more of the reality all the time. More HS guys are throwing harder. 

And it translates on the field. But I'll agree with Goosegg, way more innings thrown by many college guys than in high school. A schedule with 50+ games at D1...more than double what many high school schedules have. Add in the conditioning and weight training multiple times per week, academics and now finals, interstate travel, etc. My oldest is absolutely gassed right now. 

SanDiegoRealist posted:

I am watching the SEC tournament, Texas A&M pitcher is pretty consistent at 87-88 on the fastball...watch Miami vs. Georgia Tech earlier, pretty much the same. All this talk about 90+ in recruiting sure doesn't seem to translate on the field. As I speak Mizzou's Houck threw a 91 MPH FB and these announcers have really been talking him up.

I have to agree, as a challenge I want everyone to watch the CWS. ESPN has been doing a good job of broadcasting the early round gams. . My experience the last few years is that you won't see the 90+ guys until the final 8. You will see a few, but in the later rounds (final 8) is where the really show up.

From what I have been seeing across most levels is about a 4mph drop for cruising game velocity from max effort velocity.  My guess would be college kids cruising at 88mph more than likely can touch 92mph.  

So kid who can pump it up every now and than to 90mph in a BP will sit 86ish in a game.  

That is true and  makes a lot of sense. With my son being a pitcher I never pass on a chance to watch a pitcher on TV or in person, and I just don't see this 90+ much except for MLB, which is to be expected. People I've talked to say if a HS kid is 90+ he'll most likely be drafted, so I guess they are all in A or AA ball somewhere.

Nonamedad posted:

That is true and  makes a lot of sense. With my son being a pitcher I never pass on a chance to watch a pitcher on TV or in person, and I just don't see this 90+ much except for MLB, which is to be expected. People I've talked to say if a HS kid is 90+ he'll most likely be drafted, so I guess they are all in A or AA ball somewhere.

Just because you are drafted doesn't mean you accept. LHP touching 91 was drafted in like the 37th round last year from my sons HS, he opted for Auburn. This year LHP touching 93...pretty sure someone will throw his name out there but also pretty sure he's going to GA Tech.

Nonamedad, there are a lot more 90+ arms out there than you think. Just go to Perfect Game website and search the big tournament in Jupiter. There are over 100 kids topping at 90 and above. Now when you compare that number to the 1000s of kids playing HS baseball I guess it's not a lot. But I can assure you not all the 90+ guys are in professional baseball. My son's college team has 8 guys who ar consistently 90 or above. That doesn't mean every pitch is 90, but they hit 90 or above multiple times in an outing. We have at least 3 guys that can easily get 94-96. Don't let anyone fool you. Velo is what gets you noticed. 

Check out Florida, Vandy or UNC pitchers. They are full of 90+ arms. I would go out on a limb and say all of them have at minimum a half dozen guys that pitch 90+. 

That's exactly my point, you see these teams in Omaha regularly. My challenge for everyone is to watch the CWS regional and super regional games and we can all see when the majority of 90+ arms show up. We have the top 64 teams in the country, I'm betting it will be down to 16 before 50% are 90+.

I'm betting it will be down to 16 before 50% are 90+.

Are you you talking about teams or individual staffs?  There is no way it gets to 16 before you see a 90+ arm as a starter. It may be that deep before you see 50% of the entire staff at 90%. But I guarantee you that almost every team that makes the tournament has at least 1 guy that is 90+. Im not trying to be argumentative and I have nothing to backup my assertion other than what I've seen with my own eyes. Every SEC team we have faced has had multiple 90+ arms. Most of the midweek teams have flashed a 90+ guy. Maybe you are talking about a different level. I have not watched anything other than D1 baseball. But unless the stadium scoreboards are off or ESPN is off, most all D1 (at least here in the south) schools have at minimum one 90+ arm. Just my observations. 

As a follow up to the last post and to answer the original OP, I'm not stating you MUST throw 90 to play at a D1. All I can tell you is from my son's experience, if you don't have the plus velocity, you need pinpoint precision, a bulldog mentality or some other makeup factor that a college recruiter is looking for. My best advice would be to go watch a few games of any schools of interest. See with your own eyes the types of pitchers they recruit. This will give you the best idea of whether you could compete for playing time at that particular school. Even the programs with multiple 90+ arms also have multiple upper 80s guys. The question is, which of those guys are getting the bulk of the innings. The bottom line is the coach has to win and will use the guys that give him the best chance. The issue is you have to first show the coach something that will get you recruited before you ever have a chance to win a spot. 

YoungGun mentioned Jupiter and the number of pitchers there throwing 90+.  Here are the exact numbers:

Number of Pitchers:  926

Number of Pitchers Throwing 90+: 197 (21%)

Number of RHP Throwing 90+: 177 (25% of RHP)

Number of LHP Throwing 90+: 20 (9% of RHP) Special note - 15 of the 20 are exactly at 90.

As of a month after Jupiter (Data only for 2017 Pitchers):

Percentage of RHP throwing 90+ committed:  84%

Percentage of LHP throwing 90+ committed:  93% Only 1 had not committed

Velocity of RHP in which at least 50% of Pitchers were committed: 88 MPR

Velocity of LHP in which at least 50% of Pitchers were committed: 85 MPR

I hope that this is helpful.

Like YG says. You hit 90 and you get noticed. Kid at our HS consistent at 88/89. Not much interest. Gained 1mph to get to the magic number 90 and the calls came in. Kind of ridiculous really.

How hard do I have to throw to go D1?  Or some variation of this topic is constantly being discussed. 

For a RHP, generally speaking, you have to throw hard.  And velocity is not the only benchmark, but it's a very important one.

PerfectGame is one data point.  I know that not all players do PG events.  My youngest is a college player and did not.  My oldest was a D1 RHP / SS and only did one PG event. 

That said, if I read PG profiles correctly, the average fastball for 2017 grads clocked by PG in 2017 is 82mph.  84mph would put a 2017 roughly in the top 45% in 2017.  I'm not looking at all the data, but I'd swag 82-83mph would put a 2017 at the median fastball, i.e., the 50th percentile, in 2017.  

2017 RHPs at or below the median of 82-83mph are generally not going to play Division 1 baseball as a pitcher.  It's possible.  Anything's possible.   Generally, in my experience and IMHO, 87 - 89 mph is a decent starting point for the discussion of a D1 RHP.  There are always exceptions.

87-89 sitting or touching? I find these discussions hard to follow becuse some people use max numbers and other use sitting number. And they can be 3-4mph apart 

Knowing that the poster is in Rhode Island if he cruises 85-87 every New England D1 will be interested. BC will be a little less interested unless he has great command. They have to compete in the ACC.

Boston College, UMass, Holy Cross, Northeastern, Harvard, UMass Lowell, Maine, Dartmouth, Bryant, Rhode Island, Brown, UConn, Quinnipiac, Yale, Hartford, Central Connecticut, Sacred Heart and Fairfield.

The thing to understand is not all D1's are created equal. There are D2 programs who could put a beating on some of these programs. The best question is, "Where can I have the best baseball and academic experience based on my skill set?" A motivated player is always looking to improve his skill set. 

Do college coaches look at projectability? Would a 16 year old sitting at 86 get looked at the same way as a 17 year old sitting at 88?

howdybaseball posted:

Do college coaches look at projectability? Would a 16 year old sitting at 86 get looked at the same way as a 17 year old sitting at 88?

There are other factors. Size, body frame and year to year progression would be among them. The 16yo might have peaked pitching wise while the 17yo is just getting started.

So the answer is yes - they do look at projectability. Son is a skinny 16yo 2018 pitcher that throws 86-87 and he has some D1 schools that were interested in him but nothing concrete yet. Hoping this summer seals the deal for him. 

"Do college coaches look at projectability? Would a 16 year old sitting at 86 get looked at the same way as a 17 year old sitting at 88?"

Too many variables to give a decent answer. RJM hit a few, but there are lots more pieces to the pitching puzzle.

This topic really gets beat to death here.  Those trying to give players and parents a reality check share that a certain high level of velo is necessary to get serious interest/$$$ with top programs.  Others (often, those with kids who don't throw quite as hard) throw out examples of guys throwing below that threshold and "doing just fine" with Big School U.

It's pretty simple.  Velo is very desirable (we have also spent countless discussions explaining why).  College coaches look for guys with either current velo or projected velo.  That gets you the most interest and the most $$.  Once you get on the field, lots of things can happen.  Velo is successful.  Projected velo is reached and is successful.  Velo is good but the other guy that didn't get the $$ is getting more outs.  PC's find that you are more effective throwing 2-seam at a cruising speed instead of max effort 4-seam.  Velo is good but too straight, can't seem to adjust and create movement.  Velo arm gets fatigued but this is still the most effective P to roll out.  On and on.  So, many of these college guys throwing 84-87 were either guys with better velo or projected better velo when recruited.

If your velo or projected velo doesn't stand out among a very large pool of very good pitchers out there, you will not get an offer that stands out from a top school.  Of course, there are some exceptions but it would be foolish to latch on to those and set "recruiting interest" expectations from them.

I think, the main reason that 90 is a magic number is that, categorically speaking, the pool in the upper 80's is just so much larger than the pool in the low 90's.  Simple as that.

Around_The_Horn posted:

YoungGun mentioned Jupiter and the number of pitchers there throwing 90+.  Here are the exact numbers:

Number of Pitchers:  926

Number of Pitchers Throwing 90+: 197 (21%)

Number of RHP Throwing 90+: 177 (25% of RHP)

Number of LHP Throwing 90+: 20 (9% of RHP) Special note - 15 of the 20 are exactly at 90.

As of a month after Jupiter (Data only for 2017 Pitchers):

Percentage of RHP throwing 90+ committed:  84%

Percentage of LHP throwing 90+ committed:  93% Only 1 had not committed

Velocity of RHP in which at least 50% of Pitchers were committed: 88 MPR

Velocity of LHP in which at least 50% of Pitchers were committed: 85 MPR

I hope that this is helpful.

Very helpful, correlates perfectly with what my eyes tell me. If you took those 197 players and gave each of the 300 D1 program 1, there would still be 33% +/- schools without a 90+ kid.  As we know SEC schools like to stockpile these guys, so even fewer to go around for the other D1 programs.

Thats why when I watch BTN or the Big12 or PAC 12 baseball I will most likely see 2 kids sitting mid 80s. Makes perfect sense.

younggun posted:

I'm betting it will be down to 16 before 50% are 90+.

 

Are you you talking about teams or individual staffs?  There is no way it gets to 16 before you see a 90+ arm as a starter. It may be that deep before you see 50% of the entire staff at 90%. But I guarantee you that almost every team that makes the tournament has at least 1 guy that is 90+. Im not trying to be argumentative and I have nothing to backup my assertion other than what I've seen with my own eyes. Every SEC team we have faced has had multiple 90+ arms. Most of the midweek teams have flashed a 90+ guy. Maybe you are talking about a different level. I have not watched anything other than D1 baseball. But unless the stadium scoreboards are off or ESPN is off, most all D1 (at least here in the south) schools have at minimum one 90+ arm. Just my observations. 

I can't speak for noname but the way I read that was 50% of all pitchers in all games.  Not 50% of teams will have at least one guy who throws 90. It would be good for him to come back and clear that up!

FWP posted:

younggun posted:

I'm betting it will be down to 16 before 50% are 90+.

 

Are you you talking about teams or individual staffs?  There is no way it gets to 16 before you see a 90+ arm as a starter. It may be that deep before you see 50% of the entire staff at 90%. But I guarantee you that almost every team that makes the tournament has at least 1 guy that is 90+. Im not trying to be argumentative and I have nothing to backup my assertion other than what I've seen with my own eyes. Every SEC team we have faced has had multiple 90+ arms. Most of the midweek teams have flashed a 90+ guy. Maybe you are talking about a different level. I have not watched anything other than D1 baseball. But unless the stadium scoreboards are off or ESPN is off, most all D1 (at least here in the south) schools have at minimum one 90+ arm. Just my observations. 

I can't speak for noname but the way I read that was 50% of all pitchers in all games.  Not 50% of teams will have at least one guy who throws 90. It would be good for him to come back and clear that up!

That's right 50 % of the pitchers on the teams. Both teams combined, So if we see 5 kids in a game total and 2 throw 90 that doesn't count, and it counts what is shown on TV, not PG numbers.