I saw a funny tweet Twitter thought was too offensive to keep up. I thought it was good gallows humor ...
The husband and wife have been confined together every hour, every day for two weeks. “Mary is knitting her husband a scarf.” It was shaped like a noose.
If the economy shuts down for three months or more we’re going to have more problems than the virus. 40% of Americans can’t handle a $1000 surprise bill without pulling out a credit card.
I was looking at each state’s unemployment compensation. It doesn’t pay the bills for most people. It only blunts the pain. The government can’t keep handing out corona virus compensation month after month. What happens when millions of people can’t pay the mortgage/rent, utilities and eat? Then there’s the domino effect that ultimately falls on the banks and we’re back to 2008, only worse.
I’m not saying get your tail out the door and back to work right now. But NYC does not represent the situation across the country. Return to work can start in waves with younger, healthier people. At risk people (elderly, sick) will have to be more isolated.
As far as sports go in the big picture they’re secondary. Anything below pro sports will likely be the last thing to resume.
I would hate to be an elderly person in assisted living. These people are sitting in their rooms as targets. They can’t roam around the building. They have to come face to face with med techs. They have to receive food at their door. Someone has to come in to clean and change the sheets. The help goes in and out of the facility’s every day. Delivery people come and go every day. The elderly are sitting ducks.
Here is one analysis of the "quarentine the elderly" solution. I welcome responses to the issues raised in the article.
https://www.washingtonpost.com...-elderly-vulnerable/
I agree. Plus, there are all the under-65s who have some kind of risk factor, starting with weight.
It seems that if you're going to have barracks, it would be more efficient to put all the people without risk factors into barracks so that they all get the virus, hopefully with fewer complications, and then you can let them out again when they are no longer contagious, so that they can be in the workforce. I think that's what Boris Johnson had in mind, but it turned out he was pretty spectacularly wrong.
I read that the CDC has just started antibody testing, and that should bring a certain amount of clarity, once they get it going.
As always, excellent information from this community. My 2021’s team is mostly seniors, so it sucks they lost the season, but it was not meant to be. He and his teammates are handling it very well.
Another aspect to all of this will be the impact on higher ed. We are looking at liberal arts colleges on the west coast. They are extremely expensive, and middle class families rely on financial aid and student loans. Lots to think about.
For those who believe the country needs to shelter in place until this is over no matter how long it takes ... Can we afford to have 30-40% of the country become destitute?
A friend asked me what would occur if this happened. I asked him if he has a gun to protect his residence, family and food.
Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin - maybe she wont mind.
In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.
There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred).
The argument of who to sacrifice just doesn’t make sense. How many at risk people die from the flu? By not shutting down during flu season are we choosing to sacrifice grandma? They are saying 80% will get this. It’s just spreading out when they get it.
People keep bringing up the flu - a disease for which we have vaccines (albeit imperfectly matched each year), many decades of circulation within populations (with residual imperfect immunity), that is clearly seasonal, which DOESN'T OVERWHELM A NATIONS HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, with a mortality rate of .1%, and well understood transmissions.
Here we have a species jumping virus entering a virgin population. All within three months +/-, which has overwhelmed health care systems in multiple developed countries, with a mortality rate apparently magnitudes more than the flu.
Riddle me this: which other disease has overwhelmed multiple countries HCS?
And, yes, because we know the extreme mortality rates amongst 65+ and those with comorbidities, grandma will indeed be sacrificed (as well as your diabetic overweight 45 year old cousin). The question is will she be sacrificed as a last resort, or will she be sacrificed so we can make our rent and car payments?
There are published research papers demonstrating that locales which took strong measures during the 1918 pandemic not only had lower mortality rates, but also had much stronger economies in the future when compared to locales which allowed the virus to run free.
My grandparents told me long stories about their experiences in the great depression (heck, Bubbie used to take the restaurant crackers home in her purse); for them it lasted a decade, made them lose their livelihood and become virtual beggars.
Here, less then a month into this, we have lost patience and believe that our current state of affairs is all we can handle.
A new meaning to American exceptionalism.
PS, herd immunity will kick in long before 80% are infected with a virus with this infectious rate.
Goosegg posted:Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin - maybe she wont mind.
In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.
There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred).
I’m going to respond with a statement almost as ludicrous as yours ...
When are we going to ban cars? Six million people in the United States die each year in car accidents The carnage must stop.
In the 1970s there were 25 fatalities per 100,000 people in the US. Then they changed the laws, and now there are 11 per 100,000. Taking measures saves lives.
There is a FDA approved serology test for the novel coronavirus. There are few countermeasures being assessed via the compassionate use route including convalescent serum. We need to buy more time for these counter measures to be proven safe and efficacious for general public. Quniacrine drugs show promise but there is not sufficient data to prove it can work with the most susceptible to the novel coronavirus. Shelter in place is the only method we can rely on to save the scare healthcare resources until manufacturing can catch up. Btw, flu does kill healthy people as with other infections, some people are just susceptible and we do not always know why. Stay safe everyone and let's continue to support each other. I can't tell you how much motivation and energy it gives me when I see and hear people going out of their way during this crisis to help other.
Hi I am hijacking my son’s nom de plum to respond after he showed me this thread. I am a physician and we in Illinois and have been dealing with covid19 cases for almost a month. There is no way to tell if a person young or old will have a mild or severe disease. We have had a infant die of covid19 as well as people in their 30s. Also approximately 20 percent are asymptomatic and can shed the virus without knowing that they are infected. As healthcare workers we don’t have enough test kits or PPE or N95 masks available to protect ourselves when we are taking care of sick patients. The hospitals are going to get overwhelmed quickly and won’t have enough ventilators to take care of the really sick patients who need them to survive. The flattening of the curve will help us take care of the really sick patients so that they can survive this pandemic. Hopefully an antibody test will be available soon to determine who has immunity so that can return to a normal life and not infect other people. We are all learning as we go along! Sorry for the lengthy post
Really unemployment is bad but most people that lose their jobs now will get it back after the crisis is over.
There will be a recession but economy will grow fast again after this is over.
I think we will have about 10% recession this year and a positive economy growth again next year. That is bad but can be overcome and many of the businesses who go broke will be relaunched after this is over.
Recession is never permanent, most of the crisis of economy only last 1-3 years and I think this one won't be different.
My prediction is even if we have a 4 month shutdown economy will crash hard but in 3-5 years it will be at the level of december 2019 again.
And also even if people cant pay their bills anymore I can't see them all losing their home as the landlords won't gain anything by throwing people out as there are no other people who can pay rent to them.
They will need to find an agreement on how tenants can only pay part of the rent now and the rest later if they want to see money at all.
Okay, I'll bite as well. We need to do what we are doing now, but it can't stick around until there is a vaccine. Social unrest will eventually happen if we continue indefinitely as we are. Personally, I believe in a month, things will slowly move towards normal until the Fall happens. Once that hits, the second wave will come, and then we should be ready. BTW, I'm somewhat of an optimist on this.
I believe at some point towards the end of April the current situation will be extended to May 15 and then May 30. On May 15 it will be announced thenUS is going back to work on June 1 with stated precautions. It won’t be everywhere. It will be with caution. It won’t be business an usual and back to normal life. But it will be a significant start. Pro baseball might have a short preseason with the season starting later in June. But amateur/youth sports will be off the table until fall.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
If you hit the down arrow on the green bar you can select your state,
I think companies need to do everything to allow work being done under safe circumstances.
Companies that can be done in home office need to improve their organisation for home office so this becomes more efficient (communication lines etc).
Stuff like software development, finance stuff and so on could be done just as well from home.
And producing industries need to find protective clothes, masks and stuff like this to allow a safe production.
I don't think we will see a total opening the next 2-3 months but they will try to create more opportunities to work safely in that crisis.
Free time and travel will still be restricted to companies that can prove they can provide safe circumstances will be allowed to open again.
Business meetings, costumer meetings will be shifted to video conference and work done more effectively from home or under special preparation in companies.
But a more relaxed social distancing, face masks and so on will stay for months. That way you can prevent too much spreading but still allow economy to not totally crash
A pretty good article regarding resuming of sports in this reality...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/spor...akkt?ocid=spartandhp
… early Fall at the earliest - absolute best case scenario. Requires all of us to seriously stop the notion of trying to compare this to "just another flu" and car accidents.
Another piece has the peak use of hospital resources hitting 37 states during the last two weeks in April with another ten states seeing peak between May 1 and May 22. Very difficult two months in front of us.
Goosegg posted:People keep bringing up the flu - a disease for which we have vaccines (albeit imperfectly matched each year), many decades of circulation within populations (with residual imperfect immunity), that is clearly seasonal, which DOESN'T OVERWHELM A NATIONS HEALTH CARE SYSTEM, with a mortality rate of .1%, and well understood transmissions.
Here we have a species jumping virus entering a virgin population. All within three months +/-, which has overwhelmed health care systems in multiple developed countries, with a mortality rate apparently magnitudes more than the flu.
Riddle me this: which other disease has overwhelmed multiple countries HCS?
And, yes, because we know the extreme mortality rates amongst 65+ and those with comorbidities, grandma will indeed be sacrificed (as well as your diabetic overweight 45 year old cousin). The question is will she be sacrificed as a last resort, or will she be sacrificed so we can make our rent and car payments?
There are published research papers demonstrating that locales which took strong measures during the 1918 pandemic not only had lower mortality rates, but also had much stronger economies in the future when compared to locales which allowed the virus to run free.
My grandparents told me long stories about their experiences in the great depression (heck, Bubbie used to take the restaurant crackers home in her purse); for them it lasted a decade, made them lose their livelihood and become virtual beggars.
Here, less then a month into this, we have lost patience and believe that our current state of affairs is all we can handle.
A new meaning to American exceptionalism.
PS, herd immunity will kick in long before 80% are infected with a virus with this infectious rate.
I bring up the flu simply to demonstrate it kills tens of thousands in the U.S. every year and people don't seem to mind or care. Yet when a single otherwise healthy person dies of COVID-19 it makes national news.
AND we have vaccines AND it's seasonal AND it kills both young and old. I'm not comparing the two viruses but rather making an attempt to put a little perspective into people's forgetful minds.
The title of this post includes "Time to Face Reality." The fact the flu has killed between 24,000 and 63,000 in this country since 10/1/2019 seems to have been forgotten or is treated as meaningless. The COVID-19 death count has not even hit the flu's two-month average death count (yet) for the low end of the estimate (24,000). So what if grandma dies of the flu but if she dies of COVID-19 it is the country's fault. We are deemed irresponsible and insensitive because we are not treating this seriously. So much so hundreds of thousands of businesses in this country will cease to exist. Someone posted "most people that lose their jobs now will get it back after the crisis is over." Not sure how this is possible when those jobs won't exist.
Is a shutdown necessary? Of course, locally, as hotspots arise. We simply cannot continue to remain shutdown indefinitely. And to criticize the governor of Montana for not issuing a stay-at-home order? Please! Let's just kill businesses in Montana because hospitals are overwhelmed in NYC.
And why is it government's fault there aren't enough hospital beds or ventilators? As our population has grown these counts have been reduced dramatically. Why? Because health care is so much better today? Perhaps a bit. But really it's because health care is a business. These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.
The reality is it's nobody's fault. Not even China's!
My year in Review:
Jan: Constitutional Lawyer
Feb 1 - 15: Constitutional Lawyer
Feb 16 - 29: Epidemiologist/Infectious Disease Expert
Mar 1 - 15: Epidemiologist/Infectious Disease Expert, Prepper/Hoarder
Mar 16 - 31: Biostatistics Modeler/Social Bayesian Analyst, NCAA Compliance Officer
Apr 1 - current: Keynesian Economist, Geopoliticist, Supply Chain Expert
Man I’m worn out.
RJM posted:Goosegg posted:Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin - maybe she wont mind.
In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.
There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred).
I’m going to respond with a statement almost as ludicrous as yours ...
When are we going to ban cars? Six million people in the United States die each year in car accidents The carnage must stop.
For those wondering about the actual number of motor vehicle related fatalities, in 2018 it was 36,560. That number includes motorcycles, pedestrians and bicyclists.
baseballmom posted:These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.
We were unprepared for the bombing of Pearl Harbor, too! But you didn't hear our President suggest, " Well, if any States want to manufacture a bomber, that's up to them."
But this Dude wants to call himself a "War-time President"?
Think about it!
I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.
What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?
The federal government WAS unprepared!
Edit: FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.
TPM posted:baseballmom posted:These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.
We were unprepared for the bombing of Pearl Harbor, too! But you didn't hear our President suggest, " Well, if any States want to manufacture a bomber, that's up to them."
But this Dude wants to call himself a "War-time President"?
Think about it!
I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.
What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?
The federal government WAS unprepared!
Edit: FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.
Can both ya’ll delete your posts?It’s nice to have a place to share opinions without the political hate.
It’s clear the board is no longer monitored for political posts.
TPM posted:I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.
What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?
The federal government WAS unprepared!
Edit: FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.
Huh? Billion $ companies not being able to pay their employees == government being unprepared?
Yeah, you are right. 6 deaths and 281 cases in a very sparsely populated state; better shut it down!!!
Montana has those numbers with social isolation. They are projected to worsen considerably over the next 3 weeks with social isolation. Even with mitigation, MT. Is projected to have a shortage of ventilators for the ICU patients.
Every credible doctor with expertise concludes the situation will be so much worse and so much longer without following the guidance of Dr Fauci and Dr Birks.
As Dr Fauci recently noted, there is rhetoric and medical reality and it is important for the public to appreciate the difference.
Go44dad posted:TPM posted:baseballmom posted:These same businesses are now complaining the government is not doing enough. That the federal government was unprepared and is now responsible for this crisis.
We were unprepared for the bombing of Pearl Harbor, too! But you didn't hear our President suggest, " Well, if any States want to manufacture a bomber, that's up to them."
But this Dude wants to call himself a "War-time President"?
Think about it!
I saw a good on twitter the other day. Ordinary hard working Americans were supposed to have saved enough to get them through this crises, but big-time multi billion dollar corporations are complaining they are going broke and can't pay their employees.
What's the matter, they couldnt save for a rainy day?
The federal government WAS unprepared!
Edit: FWIW, Montana has 281 confirmed cases 6 deaths.
Can both ya’ll delete your posts?It’s nice to have a place to share opinions without the political hate.
It’s clear the board is no longer monitored for political posts.
If you report a post, it will be evaluated and perhaps deleted. The board is still monitored.
Edit to add: this board belongs to all of us. We all have the responsibility of monitoring posts. Use the report link.
cabbagedad posted:A pretty good article regarding resuming of sports in this reality...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/spor...akkt?ocid=spartandhp
… early Fall at the earliest - absolute best case scenario. Requires all of us to seriously stop the notion of trying to compare this to "just another flu" and car accidents.
Another piece has the peak use of hospital resources hitting 37 states during the last two weeks in April with another ten states seeing peak between May 1 and May 22. Very difficult two months in front of us.
Cabbagedad - the statistics used in your second article are from a site I posted about yesterday and RJM later posted too. Is from healthdata.org. If NY State is to peak in 4-5 days and the US in next 10-11 days things will be on the margin getting better not worse very soon. Yes, next week or two will be tougher. Also, look at the site -the projections, they are way off as it relates to resources needs, beds, ICU beds etc. In other words, things are coming in much lower than original projections
There will be a lot of work to do to get things heading back in the right direction. For my work I am confident we will not go 100% fully back for a month or two but Sports in some form will come back sooner than early fall. Heck, early fall is more of a concern is Covid comes back....
NY State stats today from Gov Cuomo - the fewest number of new hospitalizations in over 2 weeks, Now below 600 new hospitalizations, down from 1100 the day before and from 1400 the day before, deaths down (one day only), Apex this week. We are close to getting through the apex. I know thinking positive won't bring things back faster but worst-case scenarios are NOT occurring at the moment and don't seem in the cards.
I don’t know how anyone things the country can sit still for several months then go back to work. A lot of jobs will seize to exist within three months. The government can’t pay people’s bills every month. The first month they don’t 40%** of the country can’t support themselves. I don’t think people understand how many small businesses operate month to month.
Do people understand how big the hospitality and travel industry is along with connected businesses? These companies are not going to open up the first day like it’s a New Hears celebration.
A lot of companies getting government help won’t be able to retain their employees. First they have to cover their fixed costs.
I expect to lose half my clients (aka half my income) if this goes on for more than two months. Fortunately, I’m financially secure. What about people who aren’t. My clients (small business) won’t be when they shut down.
i just don’t understand how anyone can think everything will be fine in a few months.
** 40% of people would have to use a credit card to handle a $1000 surprise bill.
Go44dad, done, out of respect for you. You are a valued member of this community, and help lend a much appreciated sense of humor on occasion to keep things light.
Now, what one may interpret as "political hate", I meant as utter disgust for bombastic self- agrandisement (if that's even a word?) speech & behavior. I believe this is a Pearl Harbor moment that requires a Roosevelt like response. So, the best we've got is Dr's. Fauci & Birx guidance. And the real foot soldiers of the medical professions, whom we all should praise & thank.
Stay safe, folks!
edit: word arrangement
baseballmom posted:Go44dad, done, out of respect for you. You are a valued member of this community, and help lend a much appreciated sense of humor on occasion to keep things light.
Now, what one may interpret as "political hate", I meant as utter disgust for bombastic self-agrandisement speech & behavior. (if that's even a word?) I believe this is a Pearl Harbor moment that requires a Roosevelt like response. So, the best we've got is Dr Fauci & Birx guidance. And the real foot soldiers of the medical professions, whom we all should praise & thank.
Stay safe, folks!
Yes Paula, “behavior” is a word.
RJM posted:I don’t know how anyone things the country can sit still for several months then go back to work. A lot of jobs will seize to exist within three months. The government can’t pay people’s bills every month. The first month they don’t 40%** of the country can’t support themselves. I don’t think people understand how many small businesses operate month to month.
Do people understand how big the hospitality and travel industry is along with connected businesses? These companies are not going to open up the first day like it’s a New Hears celebration.
A ,or of companies getting government help won’t be able to retain their employees. First they have to cover their fixed costs.
I expect to lose half my clients (aka half my income) if this goes on for more than two months. Fortunately, I’m financially secure. What about people who aren’t. My clients (small business) won’t be when they shut down.
i just don’t understand how anyone can think everything will be fine in a few months.
** 40% of people would have to use a credit card to handle a $1000 surprise bill.
People most definitely will not be fine in a few months. Wrecking the economy sucks and will harm millions for years.
We have a run away virus even with the shutdown. I have seen a lot of people compare this to H1N1 in 2009 and say things like "12,500 people died and we didn't shut down the country. For perspective:
1st H1N1 death was 4/27/2009
1 year later, April of 2010 we had an estimated 60 million infections and 12,500 dead.
1st Covid-19 death was 2/29/2020
On Tuesday 4/7/2020 we will eclipse the 12,500 deaths point after 2 months and 1 week. That is with these drastic economy killing efforts to slow the spread which were not taken during H1N1.
Wrecking the economy sucks and will harm millions of people for years. There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either. There is no right answer and all outcomes will have some significant degree of death and economic ruin. Anyone pretending to have the perfect answer is a fool, we are all simply feeling our way through this disaster.
Plus, H1N1 was an influenza virus, and there was a vaccine being given by October 2009. Also, elderly people had some immunity to it, unlike now. The large majority of deaths with H1N1 came in the second wave in November-December 2009, after they had started giving the vaccine.
We must hope that all of the medical scientific minds in the world will find ways to help with this.
Thanks, adbo!
baseballmom posted:Thanks, adbo!
😜
anotherparent posted:Plus, H1N1 was an influenza virus, and there was a vaccine being given by October 2009. Also, elderly people had some immunity to it, unlike now. The large majority of deaths with H1N1 came in the second wave in November-December 2009, after they had started giving the vaccine.
We must hope that all of the medical scientific minds in the world will find ways to help with this.
Estimates for H1N1 through 2018 (2009 - 2018) are 75,000 deaths in the U.S.; even with a vaccine, viruses don't simply go away.
22and25 posted:There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either.
But it is going to "run it's course". The only thing we can control is how quickly it does it. Other's arguing do we sacrifice grandma and grandpa to go back to work, they are going to get it, not if, when. Pandora's box has been opened.
*Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.
It will run its first course here in early spring, the spread will slow in the summer enough for a return some normalcy in a month to month and a half as the apex is here in some states and close in others. A vaccine is a full year+ away but there is a massive effort at identifying therapeutics to manage the virus. Great article on this in WSJ today, Scott Gottlieb. That combined with antibody testing will enable us to continue to be out in the world, working and yes sports (with some potential modifications on attendance etc) and will bridge the gap to the vaccine. That is my opinion.
SomeBaseballDad posted:22and25 posted:There is no easy answer but just opening everything up and letting this thing "run it's course" is no bargain either.
But it is going to "run it's course". The only thing we can control is how quickly it does it. Other's arguing do we sacrifice grandma and grandpa to go back to work, they are going to get it, not if, when. Pandora's box has been opened.
*Pandora opened a jar left in her care containing sickness, death and many other unspecified evils which were then released into the world.
60 million people work for small businesses. The SBA says the average small business has enough cash to last twenty-seven days. They have twenty-seven days to run it’s course. So if we wait three of four months for the situation to run it’s course what do we do next with rampant unemployment and homelessness?
Goosegg posted:Well, which one of your parents shall be sacrificed? Or, pick a son, a wife, a cousin - maybe she wont mind.
In all my readings about the Great Depression (with analogous unemployment rates and a decade of destitution), I dont recall the solution offered was sacrifice grandma.
There are advances every day by scientists, etc. California just announced, for example, a serology test which will show who is immune (assuming immunity actually is conferred).
This post is an example of what I understand the situation to be. Hoping to hid grandma away long enough for science to find a "cure" (whatever that might look like) is not going to happen. The virus isn't just going to go away. Any "cure" is at least a year away. No matter how unfair those are the facts. The Depression is a poor example because you could skip a meal and give it to grandma, there were food lines, etc. This is totally out of our control for the foreseeable future.
