It is Past Time to Face Reality

Pedaldad,

If you dont mind, do you have those stats? 

I don't think it's that people value death more than life.  

Is it  more about people being selfish and not doing their part.  There seems to be anger and resentment from those that feel they got a  raw deal because what's happening doesn't necessarily affect them. 

But I dont hear people complaining who were/are directly impacted by  others.

Because where I live and you vacation we weren't necessarily affected until millions of spring breakers of all ages, desended upon us. By the time they left, weeks later, people in South Florida, my county especially and Dade County, starting getting sick and dying. 

Just like everywhere else, due to poor planning and disregard, there was mass confusion "on what do we do now".  

And it's not  all elderly fat people who never took care of themselves, who smoked like a chimney and never took their heart or diabetes medicine that are sic and dying. 

Did you really just say that?  

Today in Broward County FL. 2230 confirmed cases, 54 deaths.  Florida 14747 confirmed cases, 296 deaths.

Pedaldad posted:

TPM posted:

ABSORBER posted:

TPM posted:

Almost 1800 people in the US died today and the day isn't over yet.  

That makes sense to me, I cant speak for others. All that other stuff is just meaningless right now. 

 

In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. January, February, and December were the months with the highest average daily number of deaths (8,478, 8,351, and 8,344, respectively). June, July, and August were the months with the lowest average daily number of deaths (7,298, 7,157, and 7,158, respectively).

Source: National Vital Statistics System. Underlying cause of death data, 1999–2017. https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html.

I will try again. 

About 2000 people died today.

They didn't die in childbirth or by giving birth to a child they didn't die in a plane, train or car, they didn't die by suicide, they were not murdered, or died of old age.

They died due to a devastating virus that if taken seriously months ago, or had been better prepared when those in charge warned last year, more than likely they might still be alive. 

 

I disagree.  Almost 2000 people died yesterday and nearly 13k so far.  As callus as this sounds, most of them were elderly (above 80, or had not taken care of themselves by allowing their weight to rise out of control.  They smoked like a chimney, or didn't take their diabetes and heart medicine.  Yes, there have been a very sad few who were otherwise healthy, and young that succumbed to this illness.  But that number is a fraction of the young, healthy people that succumb to the flu every year.

Nonetheless, an entire country took a stand for them(the weakest among us if you will), stayed home for them, gave up their way of life for them.  In the process, millions lost their jobs, their businesses, their way to keep their homes, ability to feed their family.  Spouses and children took beatings in increased domestic violence, crime went up with people out of work and prisoners released.  Millions more won't be able to pay for their children's education, family vacations, or a new vehicle they were planning.

For those in this forum that suggested people in this country don't value life and the only thing that counts is the death toll, shame on you. Or, I pity you if that's the depth of your understanding.

People say if you have your health, you have everything.  Well, my country has stood up: "the haves" sacrificed greatly for "the have nots".  At some point, my prediction is May 1 for areas largely unaffected areas(and the south either way, because we still value freedom above most everything) to begin the reopen.  June 1 we will be back in business as a country, but we won't ever return to exactly where we were.  Yeah, my country gave up their way of life, and decided that was worth it to protect those that were at risk.  Tell me again about not valuing life, or how the death toll is the only thing that matters.

NO ONE here has said or implied that the only thing that counts is the death toll.  It is clear to all that this is a very complex problem with no easy answers and likely significant loss of life and economic prosperity on either side of the preferred action plans.

With regard to valuing freedom above most everything - We as a country have, in times of serious crises, been willing to sacrifice many of our freedoms temporarily during those times in efforts to save as many lives of our fellow Americans as possible and preserve those freedoms over the long run.

The current number of 13K is terrible but not the overriding concern.  The fact that this number can increase nearly tenfold or not, based largely on our near term actions and tolerance for personal sacrifice and temporary loss of some freedoms is the question.  Definitely no easy answers.  One of the big questions/debates is just how serious is this particular crisis?  If you follow the current set of scientific facts and data from other countries just ahead of us in the timing, it seems clear that the actions being taken are necessary to significantly minimize that severity and there are clear signs that these efforts and sacrifices are paying off.  Along the way, there have been several instances of groups who have refused to give up some of their freedoms during this crisis that have backfired and cost additional lives and outbreaks among themselves AND OTHERS.

All that said, I am hopeful that you are not far off in your timing.  We will have more very difficult decisions ahead in determining whether we get things going too soon or too late and how best to systematically do so.

If you are playing tennis with someone that is a high-contact sport in the virus context.  You are picking up a ball that other people are touching, probably worse than talking and congregating.

old_school posted:

IMO the models show a runaway train with nothing being done to slow it down or turn it...which is just an inaccurate assumption. I also believe these same experts missed the forecast at the beginning and now are overreacting to the correction. Seldom is anything ever as good or bad as it appears to be, that holds true with almost anything in life and it seems to be also the case with this Chinese virus.

That's just the point, the models are constantly changing.  They are changing daily, based on what is happening with social distancing.  The models specifically are based on whether or not there are stay-at-home orders; in the model, Alabama's predicted hospitalizations dropped dramatically as soon as the stay-at-home order was issued.  Also, the original models assumed that only 50% of people would follow the guidelines.  It's sad that's what the modellers predicted, I guess they were relying on some idea about human nature.  It now turns out that 90% of people are following the guidelines, so the models have changed, the rates have gone down.  Turns out people are taking it seriously after all.  So, input changes daily. 

Don't be one of those people who say, after we have managed to reduce the death rates through incredible efforts and economic pain, "well, see, it wasn't that bad."  If it isn't that bad, it's going to be BECAUSE we did all these things.  Read Jonah 3:1-4:11.

If you don't trust academics, who do you think should be doing this modelling?  Where are they, and why aren't they doing it?  Where are all those people who you think can work under stress, crunching this data?  Are the finance people capable of doing it?  Businessmen?  Athletes?  Maybe, just maybe, all those people realize that they don't actually have the type of expertise that is necessary to do something as complicated as modelling the progression of a disease.

Smitty28 posted:

If you are playing tennis with someone that is a high-contact sport in the virus context.  You are picking up a ball that other people are touching, probably worse than talking and congregating.

If you are playing tennis with someone who has been isolating with you then it is very low risk.  

Playing with someone who you have NOT been isolating with can lead to problems by touching benches,  gates, bathroom facilities, towels, and talking/sitting within 6 feet is probably not a good idea.

JMO.

anotherparent posted:

That's just the point, the models are constantly changing.  They are changing daily, based on what is happening with social distancing.  The models specifically are based on whether or not there are stay-at-home orders; in the model, Alabama's predicted hospitalizations dropped dramatically as soon as the stay-at-home order was issued.  Also, the original models assumed that only 50% of people would follow the guidelines.  It's sad that's what the modellers predicted, I guess they were relying on some idea about human nature.  It now turns out that 90% of people are following the guidelines, so the models have changed, the rates have gone down.  Turns out people are taking it seriously after all.  So, input changes daily. 

.

Anotherparent - the modeling assumptions, where did you find them and for what model?   Its a serious question - I like to track this stuff and what you write is completely different than my understanding.  If you could post that would be great or send me PM please.   

anotherparent wrote: "

Don't be one of those people who say, after we have managed to reduce the death rates through incredible efforts and economic pain, "well, see, it wasn't that bad."  If it isn't that bad, it's going to be BECAUSE we did all these things.  Read Jonah 3:1-4:11.

Amen! 

Again for what it's worth, the basic model here https://covid19.healthdata.org...ed-states-of-america which is driving all state decisions was updated again this morning. Numbers skyrocketing down again, now predicting American death of 60k. Down from 100-240k, then to 91, then to 81, now 60k. State numbers updated too. 

Remember this model ALREADY took into effect full social distancing from the very first model through May. So you can't say this is because the social distancing is the reason. Something else is happening, and they aren't explaining why the predictions are so off. Whether that's because everyone is using hydrochloro drugs, virus is dying, not as bad, whatever, we still don't know. You can click the FAQ in the model to see what they say. 

anotherparent posted:

old_school posted:

IMO the models show a runaway train with nothing being done to slow it down or turn it...which is just an inaccurate assumption. I also believe these same experts missed the forecast at the beginning and now are overreacting to the correction. Seldom is anything ever as good or bad as it appears to be, that holds true with almost anything in life and it seems to be also the case with this Chinese virus.

That's just the point, the models are constantly changing.  They are changing daily, based on what is happening with social distancing.  The models specifically are based on whether or not there are stay-at-home orders; in the model, Alabama's predicted hospitalizations dropped dramatically as soon as the stay-at-home order was issued.  Also, the original models assumed that only 50% of people would follow the guidelines.  It's sad that's what the modellers predicted, I guess they were relying on some idea about human nature.  It now turns out that 90% of people are following the guidelines, so the models have changed, the rates have gone down.  Turns out people are taking it seriously after all.  So, input changes daily. 

Don't be one of those people who say, after we have managed to reduce the death rates through incredible efforts and economic pain, "well, see, it wasn't that bad."  If it isn't that bad, it's going to be BECAUSE we did all these things.  Read Jonah 3:1-4:11.

If you don't trust academics, who do you think should be doing this modelling?  Where are they, and why aren't they doing it?  Where are all those people who you think can work under stress, crunching this data?  Are the finance people capable of doing it?  Businessmen?  Athletes?  Maybe, just maybe, all those people realize that they don't actually have the type of expertise that is necessary to do something as complicated as modelling the progression of a disease.

The problem is that not everyone agrees with the models.  There are now three Stanford professors who have made similar comments or written articles like the one posted below.  You can also find many other data scientists who have said that the current models are using incomplete or faulty data.  

https://www.statnews.com/2020/...thout-reliable-data/

40% of America can’t handle a $1,000 surprise bill without using a credit card. If these people are unemployed for three or four months are they going to come out the other end saying it wasn’t that bad? They might be homeless.

If a person sank everything he had including a second mortgage to start a business and loses it all including his home by being shut down for three or four months (small businesses average having 27 days cash) is he going to come out the other end saying it wasn’t that bad. 

If I only had $5,000 in the bank and lost my job I’d be a bit freaked out right now (especially if I was in the hospitality industry). I don’t think a lot of people understand there are a lot of people and families in worse shape than this scenario. No one is considering the mental health aspects and consequences of poor mental health.

Plenty of people got floored in 2008 and just got back on their feet. Now they’re going through it again. Suicide will be up if sheltering goes on and on.

d-mac posted:

anotherparent posted:

old_school posted:

IMO the models show a runaway train with nothing being done to slow it down or turn it...which is just an inaccurate assumption. I also believe these same experts missed the forecast at the beginning and now are overreacting to the correction. Seldom is anything ever as good or bad as it appears to be, that holds true with almost anything in life and it seems to be also the case with this Chinese virus.

That's just the point, the models are constantly changing.  They are changing daily, based on what is happening with social distancing.  The models specifically are based on whether or not there are stay-at-home orders; in the model, Alabama's predicted hospitalizations dropped dramatically as soon as the stay-at-home order was issued.  Also, the original models assumed that only 50% of people would follow the guidelines.  It's sad that's what the modellers predicted, I guess they were relying on some idea about human nature.  It now turns out that 90% of people are following the guidelines, so the models have changed, the rates have gone down.  Turns out people are taking it seriously after all.  So, input changes daily. 

Don't be one of those people who say, after we have managed to reduce the death rates through incredible efforts and economic pain, "well, see, it wasn't that bad."  If it isn't that bad, it's going to be BECAUSE we did all these things.  Read Jonah 3:1-4:11.

If you don't trust academics, who do you think should be doing this modelling?  Where are they, and why aren't they doing it?  Where are all those people who you think can work under stress, crunching this data?  Are the finance people capable of doing it?  Businessmen?  Athletes?  Maybe, just maybe, all those people realize that they don't actually have the type of expertise that is necessary to do something as complicated as modelling the progression of a disease.

 

The problem is that not everyone agrees with the models.  There are now three Stanford professors who have made similar comments or written articles like the one posted below.  You can also find many other data scientists who have said that the current models are using incomplete or faulty data.  

https://www.statnews.com/2020/...thout-reliable-data/

 

 

Interesting and useful article, although worth noting that it was penned on March 17 and already, two of his four hypothetical US death tolls have been far surpassed and we are well on our way to the third (hopefully, we won't get there as James G's post suggests is possible).

"Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?"

I don't think anyone can argue we are using incomplete (and therefore faulty) data but we do have a significant level of knowledge of the composition of the virus, how it spreads, how it has impacted countries before us (along with their various courses of action) as well as early hot spots in our country, etc.  The experts are not entirely pissing in the wind.

They may not be pissing in the wind but they are giving worse case scenarios that they have to keep backtracking on.  Policy was made on worse case scenarios.  I think we will see policies changing much dinner than later.  Hopefully before too many people lose everything.

The experts are pissing their legs maybe...lol sorry bad joke. 

honestly a lot of what I do for a living is just evaluating what people tell me, it becomes 2nd nature somehow. It is easy for me to smell BS.

My neighbor, the highly educated teacher, who thinks I am dumb for not trusting these people just doesn’t get it. we shall see I guess. 

cabbagedad posted:

Pedaldad posted:

TPM posted:

ABSORBER posted:

TPM posted:

Almost 1800 people in the US died today and the day isn't over yet.  

That makes sense to me, I cant speak for others. All that other stuff is just meaningless right now. 

 

In 2017, an average of 7,708 deaths occurred each day. January, February, and December were the months with the highest average daily number of deaths (8,478, 8,351, and 8,344, respectively). June, July, and August were the months with the lowest average daily number of deaths (7,298, 7,157, and 7,158, respectively).

Source: National Vital Statistics System. Underlying cause of death data, 1999–2017. https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html.

I will try again. 

About 2000 people died today.

They didn't die in childbirth or by giving birth to a child they didn't die in a plane, train or car, they didn't die by suicide, they were not murdered, or died of old age.

They died due to a devastating virus that if taken seriously months ago, or had been better prepared when those in charge warned last year, more than likely they might still be alive. 

 

I disagree....

NO ONE here has said or implied that the only thing that counts is the death toll.  It is clear to all that this is a very complex problem with no easy answers and likely significant loss of life and economic prosperity on either side of the preferred action plans...

 

Since you like bold: 

YOU ARE WRONG.  I suggest you go back and read the posts in this thread.  Including the first one in this sequence that states, "1800 people in the US died today..'ALL that other stuff is just meaningless right now."

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Anotherparent - the modeling assumptions, where did you find them and for what model?   Its a serious question - I like to track this stuff and what you write is completely different than my understanding.  If you could post that would be great or send me PM please.   

Others have posted better answers.  I have not seen the specific inputs that are being used in the IHME model, all I know is (a) they say that they are based on social distancing through the end of May, and (b) I've been watching them obsessively, and I noticed that the rates for states that just ordered stay-at-home over the weekend dropped dramatically.

I think I read that about 50% vs 90% social distancing here:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07...ojections/index.html

A lot of this seems to come from Texas:

https://news.utexas.edu/2020/0...-in-22-texas-cities/

ABSORBER, 

It was cabbagedad who used bold. 

And FWIW, what I said was about the past statistics you posted.

That stuff really isn't important right now, is it?

TPM posted:

ABSORBER, 

It was cabbagedad who used bold. 

And FWIW, what I said was about the past statistics you posted.

That stuff really isn't important right now, is it?

 

Yikes, it was me who reposted, and quoted TPM in bold, to set apart her post from mine, without repeating the entire post. I am the guilty party here. Everyone take a breath. Relax.☮️

baseballhs wrote: " Hopefully before too many people lose everything."

I don't mind losing everything...that happened to me in Aug 2017 with Hurricane Harvey & I'm still trying to rebuild! Target move in date has been delayed 3 times, so hoping now for Apr1-15. I've been blessed, & won't give up! 

I can't lose my family. They are all that matters.

fenwaysouth posted:

Smitty28 posted:

If you are playing tennis with someone that is a high-contact sport in the virus context.  You are picking up a ball that other people are touching, probably worse than talking and congregating.

If you are playing tennis with someone who has been isolating with you then it is very low risk.  

Playing with someone who you have NOT been isolating with can lead to problems by touching benches,  gates, bathroom facilities, towels, and talking/sitting within 6 feet is probably not a good idea.

JMO.

Personally I agree with you.  But I also think it's ok to surf, climb a ladder to work on the house, and other such "dangerous" things that could clog hospitals.  But states, counties, cities and police departments are clamping down and taking away peoples' freedom to make such determination.  I think people pushing back on such things, more than any data, is going to force governments to ease up and open things back up.

Honestly we have no idea how many people are truly dying from covid 19 in the US it appears they're actually listing the cause of death as covid whether it was or not. Ask yourself the question why would they do that? The answer speaks volumes and shows an agenda.

baseballmom posted:

baseballhs wrote: " Hopefully before too many people lose everything."

I don't mind losing everything...that happened to me in Aug 2017 with Hurricane Harvey & I'm still trying to rebuild! Target move in date has been delayed 3 times, so hoping now for Apr1-15. I've been blessed, & won't give up! 

I can't lose my family. They are all that matters.

I understand the essence of what you’re saying. But if you take a second mortgage on your house to start a business and it does under and you lose your house no one cuts you a check. 

RJM posted:

baseballmom posted:

baseballhs wrote: " Hopefully before too many people lose everything."

I don't mind losing everything...that happened to me in Aug 2017 with Hurricane Harvey & I'm still trying to rebuild! Target move in date has been delayed 3 times, so hoping now for Apr1-15. I've been blessed, & won't give up! 

I can't lose my family. They are all that matters.

I understand the essence of what you’re saying. But if you take a second mortgage on your house to start a business and it does under and you lose your house no one cuts you a check. 

It wouldn't be prudent to use one's home to start a business...find another way...or re-evaluate the business plan.

That’s not always true. Most business owners took a risk somewhere.

RoadRunner posted:

TPM posted:

ABSORBER, 

It was cabbagedad who used bold. 

And FWIW, what I said was about the past statistics you posted.

That stuff really isn't important right now, is it?

 

Yikes, it was me who reposted, and quoted TPM in bold, to set apart her post from mine, without repeating the entire post. I am the guilty party here. Everyone take a breath. Relax.☮️

You are talking about another post.

BTW, while on the subjuct, I sent you a pm asking for info so that I could send you an article.

Here’s a concept “keep the curve flattened while restarting the economy”.  Exempt from lockdown everyone 39 and younger. 

edcoach posted:

Honestly we have no idea how many people are truly dying from covid 19 in the US it appears they're actually listing the cause of death as covid whether it was or not. Ask yourself the question why would they do that? The answer speaks volumes and shows an agenda.

I do recall reading somewhere that they are no longer testing postmortem because they are trying to conserve testing supplies. So we have a number of people diagnosed with covid based on symptom evaluation by their dr (which is common in medicine). Perhaps they were evaluated by telemedicine, which conserves supplies, such as PPE, and lessens spread of the virus (a good thing). The patient succumbs to the disease at home. People die outside of the hospital each and every day. Their cause of death is often determined after they die, without an autopsy or test. I see no agenda. What I do see is people working their tails off and using the resources they currently have. 

RoadRunner posted:

edcoach posted:

Honestly we have no idea how many people are truly dying from covid 19 in the US it appears they're actually listing the cause of death as covid whether it was or not. Ask yourself the question why would they do that? The answer speaks volumes and shows an agenda.

I do recall reading somewhere that they are no longer testing postmortem because they are trying to conserve testing supplies. So we have a number of people diagnosed with covid based on symptom evaluation by their dr (which is common in medicine). Perhaps they were evaluated by telemedicine, which conserves supplies, such as PPE, and lessens spread of the virus (a good thing). The patient succumbs to the disease at home. People die outside of the hospital each and every day. Their cause of death is often determined after they die, without an autopsy or test. I see no agenda. What I do see is people working their tails off and using the resources they currently have. 

There is no doubt that health care professionals and first responders are working their tails off. Going way beyond the call of duty. There is also no doubt that there have been attempts to use this health crisis for political gain - by both Democrats and Republicans. And it sickens me. 

Go44dad posted:

Here’s a concept “keep the curve flattened while restarting the economy”.  Exempt from lockdown everyone 39 and younger. 

100s of young people are dying from COVID, according to this story, so I don't think that flies.

The only way you can safely restart economy is with thorough testing so you KNOW if you are sick. We have to get rid of all this other garbage and focus on that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com...-coronavirus-deaths/

Gotta say, and I know I freely share my opinion on this site anyway, but anyone...and I mean anyone, who is in a hurry to rush our young men into a group situation is not seeing the forest for the tree. How are you going to feel, if for no other reason that your selfish pride, you send your son off to play summer ball, into a situation, that even if the player shows up “clean”, he will now be living with a host family that you have no idea what or who the members of that family are coming into contact with on a daily basis, and your son contracts the virus. Let’s just say, best case scenario, he gets it and is asymptomatic. Then he goes to practice and unknowingly becomes that group of people’s “patient zero” or “Corona Virus Johnny” and spreads that virus to multiple people on his team. One or two start to show symptoms, but they are tough guys and try to play through it. Finally the team decides to call it quits and scatters these 30-40 coronavirus exposed players back to their homes and towns...and the song keeps playing.

Please, I miss baseball as much or more than anyone on this board. But wanting to rush to get our sons back into a competitive environment is at best selfish of us, at worst recklessly negligent. Have the conversation now with your sons that not playing baseball for a few months is going to be the sacrifice they are going to have to make to help our country come through this thing faster. Accept that argument as truth yourself. Don’t be selfish and just because you want to see your kid strike out a stud or launch a HR you are willing to put your own desires ahead of the wellbeing of the country.

The graph below shows the curve has hit the floor for the country just before June 1. In many states the bottom is much sooner. So, I believe it’s cautiously back to work June 1. Cautiously doesn’t include amateur sports. It’s going to be hard enough to bring back pro sports with their clout to access testing.

i predict about the 20th stay at home will be extended to May 15. Some states may open up then. Some will be extended to the end of the month. 

Trump wants to get the economy going again. Fauci would prefer everyone stay at home until there’s a vaccine next year. It’s their job to think this way. They work well together. Obviously, a president has final say, Fauci is only an advisor.

Economically this can’t go past June 1. Killing the economy would have its own health, safety, poverty and death ramifications.

https://covid19.healthdata.org...ed-states-of-america

Just finished watching a show on YouTube called the Baseball Bunch and several of them thought amateur baseball might be one of the first things that comes back but regionally because there are not the crowds.  I'm not sure where I fall on that but I hope.  I hope son gets to do something soon.  He has thrown 4 weeks of bullpens into a net and faced a few guys live but not the same.  I cannot imagine what it will be like for those guys trying to stay ready for four more months.  But like they said  on the second episode which is colege coaches, without college football all college sports are in trouble.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahBTbDbVxmI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvK26itbDL0

RJM posted:

The graph shows the curve has hit the floor for the county just before June 1. In many states the bottom is much sooner. So, I believe it’s cautiously back to work June 1. Cautiously doesn’t include amateur sports. It’s going to be hard enough to bring back pro sports with their clout to access testing.

i predict about the 20th stay at home will be extended to May 15. Some states may open up then. Some will be extended to the end of the month. 

Trump wants to get the economy going again. Fauci would prefer everyone stay at home until there’s a vaccine next year. It’s their job to think this way. They work well together. Obviously, a president has final say, Fauci is only an advisor.

Economically this cant go past June 1. Killing the economy would have its own health, safety, poverty and death ramifications.

https://covid19.healthdata.org...ed-states-of-america

Truthfully, Trump doesn't have the final say, nor does Fauci. We do.

I agree with your sense of the dates involved particularly looking at the case load so far here in Iowa. My family already has discussed what we will do in case of reopening and at least for a while, it will be what we do now. We're lucky because my husband and I run our own business from home, both kids are home and taking classes and working out. No real need for anything to change for us until things get further along.

I think we all need to exercise a serious amount of caution for the foreseeable future.

RJM posted:

The graph shows the curve has hit the floor for the county just before June 1. In many states the bottom is much sooner. So, I believe it’s cautiously back to work June 1. Cautiously doesn’t include amateur sports. It’s going to be hard enough to bring back pro sports with their clout to access testing.

i predict about the 20th stay at home will be extended to May 15. Some states may open up then. Some will be extended to the end of the month. 

Trump wants to get the economy going again. Fauci would prefer everyone stay at home until there’s a vaccine next year. It’s their job to think this way. They work well together. Obviously, a president has final say, Fauci is only an advisor.

Economically this cant go past June 1. Killing the economy would have its own health, safety, poverty and death ramifications.

https://covid19.healthdata.org...ed-states-of-america

I’ve been away a while—and am a little surprised this topic is still raging (although I guess I shouldn’t be, since it is what is on all of our minds). 

Just one note on RJM’s post above: Trump will have a great deal of influence, but unless something changes radically, it will be the states, not the feds, who decide when to try to restart the economy. And that IMO may be a problem. Once a few states go, others will face a great deal of pressure to follow. So we have to hope no governor acts because s/he is more worried about reelection than public health, or because s/he doesn’t believe the medical data.

My point is not to advocate for May 1, June 1, or any other date. Just that we have 50+ jurisdictions making decisions. And any one of them could be a brand new source of infection for the rest of the nation if they get this wrong. The next few months are gonna be challenging.

RJM posted:

The graph shows the curve has hit the floor for the county just before June 1. In many states the bottom is much sooner. So, I believe it’s cautiously back to work June 1. Cautiously doesn’t include amateur sports. It’s going to be hard enough to bring back pro sports with their clout to access testing.

i predict about the 20th stay at home will be extended to May 15. Some states may open up then. Some will be extended to the end of the month. 

Trump wants to get the economy going again. Fauci would prefer everyone stay at home until there’s a vaccine next year. It’s their job to think this way. They work well together. Obviously, a president has final say, Fauci is only an advisor.

Economically this cant go past June 1. Killing the economy would have its own health, safety, poverty and death ramifications.

https://covid19.healthdata.org...ed-states-of-america

CT Gov just went to May 20th on his restrictions for schools.  This is sensible since remote education works fine and as you say RJM June 1 shows a significantly lower risk environment (minimal risks to be clear).  I have no clue what that means for HS ball, probably not great but there are some thoughts of playing into July which would be cool for the kids and before anyone jumps on me about saving lives RJM is correct as per the models.  Let's all get a bit of grip about real risks vs living/working/playing.    I know Prom is off (my son doesn't care), internships off (Bummer), Pass / Fail only (a WIN), Summer ball prob ok for some leagues but not all.  I think there will be highs and lows as it relates to getting back to normal for the country over the next few months  I again think that we will be able to test people for antibodies and have therapeutics that manage the disease by fall.  Unlikely to have the vaccine but things will start going back to normal in 4-6 weeks and then we just keep following the data.    

collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:

Gotta say, and I know I freely share my opinion on this site anyway, but anyone...and I mean anyone, who is in a hurry to rush our young men into a group situation is not seeing the forest for the tree. How are you going to feel, if for no other reason that your selfish pride, you send your son off to play summer ball, into a situation, that even if the player shows up “clean”, he will now be living with a host family that you have no idea what or who the members of that family are coming into contact with on a daily basis, and your son contracts the virus. Let’s just say, best case scenario, he gets it and is asymptomatic. Then he goes to practice and unknowingly becomes that group of people’s “patient zero” or “Corona Virus Johnny” and spreads that virus to multiple people on his team. One or two start to show symptoms, but they are tough guys and try to play through it. Finally the team decides to call it quits and scatters these 30-40 coronavirus exposed players back to their homes and towns...and the song keeps playing.

Please, I miss baseball as much or more than anyone on this board. But wanting to rush to get our sons back into a competitive environment is at best selfish of us, at worst recklessly negligent. Have the conversation now with your sons that not playing baseball for a few months is going to be the sacrifice they are going to have to make to help our country come through this thing faster. Accept that argument as truth yourself. Don’t be selfish and just because you want to see your kid strike out a stud or launch a HR you are willing to put your own desires ahead of the wellbeing of the country.

I am in agreement 100%. Wait maybe 150%.

For those interested in some recent studies.

1. The R factor for the virus is much higher than originally thought: it's on par with smallpox. This paper suggests the R factor without social distancing is between 3.8 - 8.9. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/arti...26/7/20-0282_article

2. A research paper entitled: Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu, may be of interest to some.  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p...560&download=yes

https://www.foxnews.com/politi...oronavirus-narrative

I'm sorry if you dont see the difference between scientific papers and a fox news article. 

Do we really just want to begin posting everyone's favorite "news" source?

Then address the facts.  What are you disputing or it just cannot have truth because you choose msn?  I think there were a lot of facts regarding the model being wrong/flawed and we did make policy based from these models.  If they were really wrong, that is actually good news, no?

Goosegg posted:

I'm sorry if you dont see the difference between scientific papers and a fox news article. 

Do we really just want to begin posting everyone's favorite "news" source?

>Alex Berenson has been analyzing the data on the crisis on a daily basis for weeks and has come to the conclusion that the strategy of shutting down entire sectors of the economy is based on modeling that doesn’t line up with the realities of the virus.<

NYT isn't a Trump safe harbor.