I think what we've learned here is that pre-reads can be as unpredicatable as admissions.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:They’ve all told him admissions doesn’t want to see C’s and wants A’s in STEM classes. Also told him nothing lower than a 4 on AP exams.
B's in Math can be an absolute killer at some schools. Others will let it slide... (mom of a kid who got a "maybe" from Harvey Mudd but positive reread from an institution nextdoor) Both with as much pull as a coach could offer at each school.
@LousyLefty posted:I think what we've learned here is that pre-reads can be as unpredicatable as admissions.
B's in Math can be an absolute killer at some schools. Others will let it slide... (mom of a kid who got a "maybe" from Harvey Mudd but positive reread from an institution nextdoor) Both with as much pull as a coach could offer at each school.
Yep. Seems like a couple of them know what the deal breaker red flags are and can quickly eliminate those, but still not 100% with admissions.
Mudd was one that said no B's in math or STEM courses. My son mentioned a B+ in biology and he said they didn't consider that STEM. Really focused on math, physics, and chemistry.
Concur that no Cs, but some Bs are o.k. (even in STEM classes, unless you are talking about one of the few STEM-focused schools like Mudd).
Please note that even after the pre-read, and even after acceptance, they want no Cs. Make sure your son doesn't let his grades slide senior year.
My son's qualifications were similar to TerribleBP's. His pre-reads were all positive except for one, where they said his transcript was a concern. He visited anyway, whereupon they said they thought they could get him in after all. He liked a different school better anyway, which was good, because I didn't want to chance the one supported Early Decision application on a "maybe".
Finally, I think the thing about no score lower than 4 on APs must be for credit once you are admitted. They don't have to see any AP scores when you apply, unless you choose to send them. After all, AP exams are given in the middle of baseball season. 
"He liked a different school better anyway, which was good, because I didn't want to chance the one supported Early Decision application on a "maybe"."
Looking for additional comments on having to go Early Decision when attempting to include baseball. I know the big picture is sometimes threading the needle, but having to go Early Decision for baseball would seem to leave little room for error (as one might assume second choice also required Early Decision).
Thoughts or experiences?
I checked with my son on the AP test scores. He said they only asked about math and physics AP’s.
National rules are that you are only allowed to apply Early Decision to one school, and if you get in, you are committed to going there. This is not the same as Early Action, or rolling decision.
Many High Academic schools have Early Decision, and the athletics departments are allowed to support athletes only in the ED phase. So, a coach "commits" to giving you one of his supported slots (the key term) in ED, and you "commit" to applying ED.
Note that he cannot 100% guarantee that you will get in, you should ask him what the chances of admission are with that level of support.
This has greatest value at schools where the acceptance rate is so low that you otherwise might not be accepted, or if your grades/test scores are lower than the school's average. The school commits to admitting the coach's 4 or 6 or whatever choices in the ED round, and then they are less likely to admit any baseball players in the Regular Decision round.
And yes, if your second choice also requires ED, then you have to make your decision by late September. That means visiting schools in September. It's a very precise dance. Coaches need you to make a decision, because if you decide to go elsewhere, he will offer that slot to someone else.
If you don't need the coach's support with admissions, then you don't need to apply ED. He might still ask it because it is a sign of commitment to that school. If you are unsure about things like financial aid, most schools will give you a financial aid estimate before you apply - that is definitely something you can ask the coach about.
There are a lot of factors at play with ACT/SAT, GPA's, and rigor. Balance that with how talented your player is. I was only speaking earlier of my kids experience and those that I know that were recruited (some attended these schools and some did not). I know a hockey player with a 26 who was offered a spot at Harvard and another that could not get a 28 to get into Yale. Both played for their u18 National team...many factors at play (and a different sport) from how good their national team was to their position and role on said team. One kid was a captain for USA and the other was a good player on a Scandinavian team. Both kids ended up at more selective private schools that were not Ivies but in the NE. Think Patriot League (with scholarships) and ACC/Big East type schools.
The elite academic NESCAC schools have higher "hurdles" from our family's personal experience than the Ivies.
This is my takeaway advice for anyone seeking that path.
1. You must get on the radar of whatever Ivy or NESCAC or HA school you might want to attend. This can be thru attending camps (ranging from on campus camps to HF/Showball/Stanford) or those schools might have a relationship with a HS or Club coach or advisor. Look at the roster of the schools your are interested in attending and look where those kids are from.
2. Look at the current or past years roster. Then cross reference your kids stats with those players PBR/PG profiles...sometimes there is not much to see but it can be very insightful to see metrics of THOSE kids. Compare those to your kid at that stage in HS. Sometimes there is data or information from those kids twitter profiles too if you can find them.
3. The higher your GPA ,standardized test score, exit velocity, position velocity, fast ball velocity, and spin rate all help to make you a better fit for any of those institutions. Work on improving all of those things while doing extra curricular stuff outside your sport. Those extra curricular things could be the difference maker in a pre-read and acceptance where ever your kid wants to attend.
4. In some cases get on a travel team or regional team that would go to tourneys that the school's recruiting coordinator says he will attend or did in the past. Be sure to send an email to the schools R/C telling or reminding him of where you will be playing and the game times while cc'ing your travel coach on the email. Some R/C's will ask coach when you are scheduled to pitch or play a specific position and choose to attend that game. Remember that these guys are recruiting 6-8 players from each class with about 1/2 of them being pitchers. These coaches do not watch random games looking for the potentially 1 player from each teams roster that MIGHT be able to get into their school. They target kids and then watch those games.
The higher your GPA ,standardized test score, exit velocity, position velocity, fast ball velocity, and spin rate all help to make you a better fit for any of those institutions.
All I am looking for is an algebraic formula with the above inputs that will point me towards the right school.
On a more serious note, can someone tell me what the typical timetable for the typical recruit (not top 2-3)? Is winter/spring of junior year a good starting point or were kids getting identified during the summer? Still trying to get a firm grip on when mid-majors complete their recruiting lists (except for filling needs late) and when some of the HA D1's really start digging in.
I think if a kid is serious about the Ivies, for example, he HAS to get on their radar by summer/early fall of Jr. year. Best for the intro if you can also get help from a respected coach who has a personal connection with the coach at whatever school you're looking at.
Elite D3's can wait til the showcases/camps between jr and sr. year. I know a kid who got tipped for Bowdoin after just one Headfirst showcase in August before Sr. Year. I think that's rare but obviously it could work.
@smokeminside posted:I think if a kid is serious about the Ivies, for example, he HAS to get on their radar by summer/early fall of Jr. year. Best for the intro if you can also get help from a respected coach who has a personal connection with the coach at whatever school you're looking at.
Elite D3's can wait til the showcases/camps between jr and sr. year. I know a kid who got tipped for Bowdoin after one Headfirst showcase in August before Sr. Year. I think that's rare but obviously it could work.
Endorse 100%. My son got on his school's radar in the summer before his junior season. Committed by Thanksgiving. As Smoke notes, the connection is really important. In our case, our HS coach had been in our shoes! His son nearly committed to the school in question before choosing a much larger program at the 11th hour. The two coaches stayed friendly and that was an enormous help to my son.
From my son's experience with Ivy/NESCAC, @fenwaysouth, provides some great knowledge and insight to the process.
I've said it before here: don't underestimate the value of going ED with a coach's tip at a highly selective school. My oldest was not an athlete (or was, but had too many injuries and hung up her soccer cleats). She had a 4.0, 99th percentile test scores, two varsity sports, etc., etc. She got in at just 3 of 8 schools she applied to. I had heard that very-HA schools can fill their classes many times over with kids who have perfect grades and scores and that admissions competition is brutal for Gen Z kids, but I was skeptical. Believe me, even if your kid is a superstar, those 5% to 7% odds of admission do apply to him (unless there is a building on campus named for his grandparent or he has some other hook).
If your kid gets a positive pre-read and a coach's tip, then his ED application will be accepted so long as he doesn't do something seriously stupid like getting suspended or failing a class. That is very valuable if he wants to attend a highly selective school. Your kid may be brilliant, but if he applies to Yale/Amherst/Stanford, he's still going to be playing long odds.
On the other hand, if your son has stellar credentials and isn't set on playing baseball, you can be confident he will be admitted to some great programs, even if not necessarily to his dream school(s). My daughter ended up having a great experience at a HA college (and starts her first Real Job on Monday).
False Dawn, I sent a pm
@2017 Lefty Dad posted:The higher your GPA ,standardized test score, exit velocity, position velocity, fast ball velocity, and spin rate all help to make you a better fit for any of those institutions.
All I am looking for is an algebraic formula with the above inputs that will point me towards the right school.
On a more serious note, can someone tell me what the typical timetable for the typical recruit (not top 2-3)? Is winter/spring of junior year a good starting point or were kids getting identified during the summer? Still trying to get a firm grip on when mid-majors complete their recruiting lists (except for filling needs late) and when some of the HA D1's really start digging in.
Mid-majors are making offers to 2024's (rising juniors) right now. The HA D1's are also looking at 2024s.
The difference between the two is grades and test scores. HA D1's finalize their lists a bit later, as they await junior year grades and test scores.
Winter/spring of junior year is too late to get on the radar, unless a big milestone has recently been met (e.g. 95mph EV, 90mph pitch). Summer before junior year, or fall of junior year at the latest, is the time to get on the coaches list at the desired schools.
If a player is not getting interest at the level they want by halfway through junior year, it is time to think about downshifting to the next level.
The hardest part of Speed’s timeline for my boys (and, obviously, me) to understand/accept was giving up the HA D1 dream before jr year even happened.
Serious reality check.
@smokeminside posted:The hardest part of Speed’s timeline for my boys (and, obviously, me) to understand/accept was giving up the HA D1 dream before jr year even happened.
Serious reality check.
Yep. And seeing friends who weren't quite as good get Ivy offers, based on projectability.
@SpeedDemon posted:Yep. And seeing friends who weren't quite as good get Ivy offers, based on projectability.
Projectability happens everywhere, not just in the Ivys. I hate that word. It should be scrubbed from the English language.
@fenwaysouth posted:Projectability happens everywhere, not just in the Ivys. I hate that word. It should be scrubbed from the English language.
Evaluating baseball talent is both an art and a science. The analytics cover the science side - to some extent. But there should be more too an evaluation than just numbers. The art side of evaluation is very subjective. IMO it has more to do with instincts and memory than anything else. It’s a matter of opinion no matter how you define it. But whenever a coach or scout likes a player for a subjective reason, and someone asks the reason to be quantified, the answer is “projectability.”
@fenwaysouth posted:Projectability happens everywhere, not just in the Ivys. I hate that word. It should be scrubbed from the English language.
@adbono posted:Evaluating baseball talent is both an art and a science. The analytics cover the science side - to some extent. But there should be more too an evaluation than just numbers. The art side of evaluation is very subjective. IMO it has more to do with instincts and memory than anything else. It’s a matter of opinion no matter how you define it. But whenever a coach or scout likes a player for a subjective reason, and someone asks the reason to be quantified, the answer is “projectability.”
Sorry to trigger both of you.
Didn't realize people on here were so sensitive.
If I change "projectability" to "long range forecast" does make you feel better?
@SpeedDemon - No worries. You just hit on one of those things that really bothered me in the recruiting process. In my mind it does not make logical sense to pick one guy with less skill over another guy with more skill...it is an illogical justification. Sensitive is probably a word 99.99% of people would not use to describe me with the possible exception of my mother.
In all seriousness & honesty, I don't understand why coaches put so much emphasis on the "Projectability"...its a dirty word if you are a recruit and a Coach says that. As a HC, your success and livelihood is measured on wins, losses, conference championships... I'm recruiting the the guy that can help me win now. There is no future ifs. Too often I see extremely capable guys get passed over for future unproven talent because of their pedigree, size, speed, or whatever. As a hiring mgr in a company, give me the guy who can do the job today & tomorrow....don't give me the guy who may be able to do the job in the future. Baseball managers take unnecessary risks with these guys, and it is everywhere. I would go so far as to say that a lot of these "P" guys will end up in the transfer portal. I just don't like the word or how it is used in college baseball.
You can change the word, but it still means the same thing.
JMO.
@SpeedDemon posted:Sorry to trigger both of you.
Didn't realize people on here were so sensitive.
If I change "projectability" to "long range forecast" does make you feel better?
Just because someone responds to a post doesn’t mean that they were “triggered.” It means that they have information or an opinion to offer on that subject. At least that’s how it normally works. The important part of this board is the freedom to respond (or not) at your own discretion. Putting a label on why someone responds is a reach. Really bad take on your part.
@fenwaysouth posted:@SpeedDemon - No worries. You just hit on one of those things that really bothered me in the recruiting process. In my mind it does not make logical sense to pick one guy with less skill over another guy with more skill...it is an illogical justification. Sensitive is probably a word 99.99% of people would not use to describe me with the possible exception of my mother.
In all seriousness & honesty, I don't understand why coaches put so much emphasis on the "Projectability"...its a dirty word if you are a recruit and a Coach says that. As a HC, your success and livelihood is measured on wins, losses, conference championships... I'm recruiting the the guy that can help me win now. There is no future ifs. Too often I see extremely capable guys get passed over for future unproven talent because of their pedigree, size, speed, or whatever. As a hiring mgr in a company, give me the guy who can do the job today & tomorrow....don't give me the guy who may be able to do the job in the future. Baseball managers take unnecessary risks with these guys, and it is everywhere. I would go so far as to say that a lot of these "P" guys will end up in the transfer portal. I just don't like the word or how it is used in college baseball.
You can change the word, but it still means the same thing.
JMO.
I went through the 2022 Stanford roster last night and looked up how fast each pitcher was throwing summer before junior year: 2-3 were 90+, the rest were mid-high 80s.
Now, hundreds of rising juniors throw in the mid-high 80s, so it made me wonder - why did Stanford picked those specific guys? Surely many of them are great students... Then I noticed that each of the slower pitchers were currently 6'2" or better. No exceptions, not even for lefties.
Yet they all weren't 6'2"+ in high school. So, clearly, the Stanford coaches consider projected height as a key factor when recruiting.
And some 6'0" guys throwing 90 as juniors were probably pretty confused and disappointed when Stanford didn't want them.
I randomly happened upon this thread from last year, which was really good on timing, and other things:
