Tebow

Swampboy posted:

Please help the moderators keep this thread open by directing future comments AWAY from religion and politics and back TOWARD baseball. 

Thank you.  

Saw Tim Kurkjian (can't remember ESPN or MLB channel) bring up some good points.

First, said, that as far as being on a milb roster, he is not taking anyone away from an opportunity to play in the ML game. Statistics show that only 3 players will eventually get to the show that are on any current milb roster. He also added that when all is said and done and he leaves the game (no one mention the word failed) this will prove even further how DIFFICULT it is to reach the highest level.  I think that was a pretty good assumption from someone who knows much more about the professional game than we do. In other words, Tebow will never make a ML roster.

I have no issues with Tim Tebow.  My issue is with the Mets.  Tebow in my opinion is nothing more than a celebrity and the Mets know just where they will find his biggest fans who will fill empty seats in the stands. In other words Tebow represents $$$$, not a future MLger.

As a footnote, I agree with Kurkjian, but only at the MiLB level, not sure it applies to AZFL or ML spring training.

JMO

Teaching Elder posted:

RJM posted:

Tebow was not run out of football because of his religion. He was run out because he can't play QB at the NFL level. This is what I'm talking about. 

Well...I've never said Tebow was run out of football because of his religion.  I personally don't know anyone else who believes that, and I know A LOT of Christians.   There certainly are anecdotal cases of people who believe that Tebow was denied a chance in the NFL because of his religion.  Go into the comments section of an article about him, and you'll see a teenager or two say something of that nature.  But, come on, there are anecdotal cases of people believing all sorts of things.   Don't make an extreme case out to be your image of an entire group of people.

Is Tebow reviled because of his religion?  Absolutely.  Tebow is hyped up because he is a compelling story.  He's a great guy who has worked very hard in his life and reached some great achievements in large part due to his work ethic, leadership and heart.   He's not some dilettante  giving baseball a "little try" for a while.  He works as hard as anyone else, and has the respect of his teammates and coaches.   But his religiosity, which is not nearly as overt as some others, and is way, way, way less in your face than Michael Sam's choice of who he sleeps with, is thrown in his face as a reason to dislike him, or his fan-boys, or his 6 year-old Sunday School class teacher, etc.

To want him to fail because of Christian's wanting him to succeed, a few of which may be irrational 14 year olds,  is not healthy.   That's like wanting Sandy Koufax to fail because he took off for Yom Kippur, and Jews everywhere, of every age, where so very proud of him and wanted to see him succeed.

Go to a game.  Meet the guy.  Shake his hand - he most likely will oblige.  I think that you will have a brand new perspective on him.

People who thought Tebow was run out of the NFL for his religion were ALL over the Internet each time he was released. 

PGStaff posted:

Tebow and Kurt Warner are very similar when it comes to Religion.  If someone can throw well enough they will keep you.

Race and religion do seem to cause way too much hatred among some people.  There are great people and bad people of all races and many religions.  I think the thing I like most about Tebow is it appears he has no hate in him.

All the other stuff is just entertainment. Baseball, all sports, are simply forms of entertainment. Odd how many of the greatest athletes and teams ever, were both loved and hated by many.  Mohammad Ali, Barry Bonds, Lebron James, the Yankees, etc.  Not saying Tebow is in the same class as far as professional achievement, but he shares the same type of popularity.  Whether I like him or not, whether I think he is capable of doing something or not, whether he is treated fairly or not, whether he succeeds or fails,, whether he is fake or real... In my mind he is just one unusual and fascinating figure.

Loved watching Kurt Warner and the Greatest Shiw on Turf. And then that he was able to make a comeback and excel again with the Cardinals. 

2forU posted:

Cleveland did not see Tebow fitting into their vision of the future - Cleveland has no vision, unless it's losing (sorry Cleveland football fans, but you suck).  The Jets, well they just suck and I don't believe they will ever recover under current ownership.  Then we had Cleveland and RGIII, I mean RGII, RGI, and then RG (he lost a I after major injury - ownership and coaching ruined RG).

From a sports rag: the Jets have shown just how damaging Tebow's popularity can be to a team. Those who blindly support and follow him everywhere he goes—"Tebowmaniacs"—have fueled his demise as much as they have helped him. 

Whether a team is looking for a starting quarterback, a backup or a fullback, they can find solutions that will not provide the distractions that Tebow does. Why trade for Tebow when you can just draft a late-round quarterback (who is likely a better passer) who wouldn't bring ESPN cameras to their training camp?

 

Tebow is now treated like Terrell Owens, in that decision-makers see Tebow as more of a destructive force than an asset—which is incredibly ironic considering how different the two personalities are and how well-intentioned Tebow is. 

 Tebow was also released by the Patriots. Are they a franchise that doesn't know what they're doing?  Maybe it was going 11-30 in the preseason against second and third stringers.

 ... producing his fair share of head-scratching plays.

http://nesn.com/2013/08/report...onsistent-preseason/

.246

2forU posted:

.246

Would be so awesome if he could somehow make it...

The wife is taking me to the ballgame tonight to see Tebow...we bought seats a couple weeks ago and got them right behind the dugout but there were very few available...he's definitely putting butts in seats.  I'm certainly impressed with what he's done so far.  I still don't think he's got a snowballs chance of making it but it ain't what I think that matters.

What area do you all live in?

2forU posted:

.246

Not the number to actual be concerned with, but he is putting up a .725 OPS in a pitchers park in a pitchers league (league OPS is .669, team is .609).  That's better than I would have guessed he would do, though the sample size is still small.  His 22.5% K rate isn't great but it isn't completely awful either.

Downside to all of that, though, is that's still only the 54th best OPS in the league, and the real studs are putting up OPS numbers 200-500 points higher while being 7-10 years younger.  Given his defensive limitations, he's probably not hitting his way out of that league legitimately without putting up a .900ish OPS.

Teaching Elder...we live in North Carolina...fairly close to Hickory

bigcubbiefan posted:

Teaching Elder...we live in North Carolina...fairly close to Hickory

Isn't that where the Owls are from?  I've been to one of their games.  I am soon to move a bit south of Savannah. Hope to see him this summer. 

Yep...we are in same town as the Owls...although they are now defunct.

Tebow will be judged more by his mechanics and consistency than his stats unless he puts up phenomenal numbers. When I look at stats I look for consistency and exceptions. On milb.com his profile/stat page has his last ten games.

The good news is he's hitting  .314 over his last ten games. But with only 65 at bats one game can alter stats significantly. He has eight of his eleven hits in the time period in three games. In the other seven games he has four hits. Over the first nine of them his batting average ranged from .176 to .213. One three hit game jumped him to .246. The difference in three hits right now is 46 points. 

I don't see a whole lot to get excited about. But let's see where he is at 200 at bats. At least then a three hit game only changes stats 15 points. 

It looks like pitchers made adjustments early on to him being able to only hit certain pitches and he struggled. Now it looks like he has made some adjustments back and starting to have a little success. Who knows how he will handle it when pitchers adjust again? Good for him and good for pitchers who can make a name for themselves getting him out.  I'm rooting for success.

As more and more teams get better scouting reports, he will have a tougher time. 

His size is going to hurt him. Someone should tell him that baseball players arent supposed to look like football players.  Pitchers will continue to throw inside fastballs, because he is too big to turn on pitches as others can ( read this in bleacher report).

Once again to keep in mind, he is a 29 year old former college star playing single A milb where the average player is 21.

TPM posted:

As more and more teams get better scouting reports, he will have a tougher time. 

His size is going to hurt him. Someone should tell him that baseball players arent supposed to look like football players.  Pitchers will continue to throw inside fastballs, because he is too big to turn on pitches as others can ( read this in bleacher report).

Once again to keep in mind, he is a 29 year old former college star playing single A milb where the average player is 21.

The only shot I see Tebow having is blowing through A and AA ball this year. Then blowing through AAA and promoted to MLB after the all star break next year. Based on his start this year I don't see it happening. 

He is a 29 year old who hasnt played ball in years. right. But dont say baseball players arent supposed to look like football player or that he is too big to turn on inside pitches. Not true. MLB ball players can be large men also. Not just pitchers who are routinely 6'4" 225 and larger.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have bodies that could be used to play football professionally.They dont have ANY problems turning on inside pitches.  If you think I am wrong , check out Youtube videos on workouts posted by your favorite big leaguer and see for yourself. These guys lift wieghts and they are bigger now than they were twenty years ago. Maybe not a lot of Offensive or Defensive Lineman playing in MLB but certainly plenty of QB sized guys, WR/DB sized guys, and RB/LB sized guys. Google the height and weight of most of these players....it can be surprising. Long list of NFL and College QBs who pitched in the minors and in high school at a high level or who were drafted but chose football.

If Tebow doesnt make it , it can be for any number of reasons, none of which are his size. Many of the best athletes were two-sport stars in high school.

Hard to hit 400+ foot bombs when you dont weigh 190lbs. Not impossible to think that Mike Trout at 6'2" 235lbs or Bryce Harper 6'4" 235 could play LB for an NFL team with their speed and athleticism.  Tim Tebow is about 6'3" 235lbs......

Last time I looked his average was rising...( not hard considering where it was ) . 

Jury is still out. He is selling tickets and tee shirts. Mets getting there moneys worth?? I cant say yet. What I will say is he sure is the number one most talked about and covered Minor Leaguer in a long time....If the casual fan is talking about baseball and isnt talking about suspensions or other negative garbage, it is a good thing. Maybe his presence will convince some of the high school super athletes to choose to play baseball as their number one sport

As a baseball fan I am all for LeBron, Patrick Kane, Lionel Messi, and Garrett Myles all getting deals to try to play baseball. The sport wins by better athletes trying to play.  At the very least Tebow hasn't been a complete incompetent joke like what was predicted and now the goal post (Insert Clever Ex-Heisman Reference Here) is being moved to he has to be in the show by the 2018 All-Star Game.

I hope he hits 400 foot bombs and I also hope a pitcher with nasty stuff gets moved up to a higher level for striking him out.

I'm not sure that anyone thought he would be a complete incompetent joke, he's not Shaq Thompson.  I would say that the expectation was probably centered around his AFL performance, and that he's likely near the upper end of what I thought it was realistic for him to do. He'd be several standard deviations away from any reasonable prediction if he makes it to MLB at all, much less the all-star game.

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

Hard to hit 400+ foot bombs when you dont weigh 190lbs.

Power is generated by bat speed not size and strength. Mookie Betts is 5'9" 160. (31-113-.318/.534/.900)

Bat speed may be driven by size and strength. But it's not the reason a player has power. Not every big player has power.

RJM posted:

Hard to hit 400+ foot bombs when you dont weigh 190lbs.

Power is generated by bat speed not size and strength. Mookie Betts is 5'9" 160. (31-113-.318/.534/.900)

Bat speed may be driven by size and strength. But it's not the reason a player has power. Not every big player has power.

 

 

I agree.  I watched Mookie hit BP last year in the playoffs and the balls kept sailing over my head out of the ball park.  I would credit muscle type, ie fast twitch with great bat speed, much more than i would muscle mass.  Some players have a lot of both (Giancarlo Stanton).

jacjacatk posted:

I'm not sure that anyone thought he would be a complete incompetent joke, he's not Shaq Thompson.  I would say that the expectation was probably centered around his AFL performance, and that he's likely near the upper end of what I thought it was realistic for him to do. He'd be several standard deviations away from any reasonable prediction if he makes it to MLB at all, much less the all-star game.

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

To be fair I am not sure the AFL was used to establish an average performance or any type of standard deviations on what his performance will be. I am pretty sure they never calculated a z-score for his performance. The Mets needed to find out fast where he would fit in the spectrum and start out.  The AFL was just a convenient place to face good talent. It seems like they put him in the correct level as he is getting adjusted to and making adjustments to his game. Plenty of people predicted he was a joke, would fail fast, and he has not done that.  So now that those predictions were incorrect those people move the bar to he now has to move through all levels and be in MLB by the 2018 All-Star game or he fails and their predictions that he will fail come true, they were always right and never wrong.  Heads I win tails you lose.

As an aside I enjoy that we are now seeing a steady stream of athletes named Shaq. i find that one of the things that make sports fun.

What if they moved him to first?  Plenty of hitters play first.  He may not be that type of hitter, but if the Mets truly want him there...

Depending on how bad he is in the OF, moving him to first might lessen the negative value of his defense, but it's not going to change the overall value equation much, since you have to be that much better a hitter at 1B to compete with all the defensively-challenged bat-first guys who eventually end up getting pushed there.  Same for DH.

What's the typical trajectory of stud minor league player who's graduated from college?  2-3 years to the first cup of coffee?  And that's for the guy who everyone thinks can already do it and then actually dominates the leagues he's in while moving towards his peak talent years.  Tebow's on the downside of peak baseball age, and nothing in his current skill set really projects to MLB regular level, with the possible exception of the power, even if he were to progress at a normal prospect rate. And he's far from dominating A ball at this stage.

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many washed-out MiLB players could put up the numbers he has in the Sally league at age 29? My guess would be a ton, and pretty much all of them are out of the game for good reason.

Just to pick a scrub at random, Joey Terdoslavich put up a .795 OPS in the Sally league in 21 games as a 21 year old while King in 21% of his PAs.  His peak was MLB replacement level/organization filler with an 8 year head-start. If Tebow managed to match Terdoslavich's .620 MLB OPS in 150ish PAs, that would be far better than anyone has any right to expect.

It is a very interesting experiment on many levels. Yes, he is highly likely to "fail", but it is intriguing to watch him try.  He's a good athlete, Heisman, two national championships, drafted in NFL, possibly could still be there if he'd changed position, and a dedicated worker.  He's going to get better.  It will be worth watching. To say the least. 

I'm not sure I buy into the use of "fail" with regards to this endeavor.

Tebow seems like the kind of guy who values both the journey and the destination. 

He looks like he's having a lot of fun.

However it turns out, I don't think he's going to look back and say it was a mistake or that he failed.

What wouldn't most of us give to have a chance to fail similarly?

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

Here is the dilemma. If they move him to high A and he he can't produce, 8there goes their attraction and then the experiment is over. They will keep him as long as they can at low A.  Their true prospects will move ahead  of him.  Mets have major league issues right now, this is their ditraction.

AZFL is a future prospect league. Again, it's pretty apparent that he was there for a reason.

JMO

TPM posted:

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. 

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

 

Yes, I do, which is why I said the realistic ceiling on what should be expected from him at this point was that he'd eventually be able to put up something like competent AA offensive numbers while being a net negative value due to his defense.  So his everything breaks right offensive ceiling is still probably something like 2016-17 Cody Decker.

Joey Terdoslavich shouldn't be described as a scrub.  He has a 271 lifetime batting average in the minors, hit 82 HRs, and did well at both AA and AAA.  Also he played in the Big Leagues. 

PGStaff posted:

Joey Terdoslavich shouldn't be described as a scrub.  He has a 271 lifetime batting average in the minors, hit 82 HRs, and did well at both AA and AAA.  Also he played in the Big Leagues. 

And he's pretty much the definition of replacement level MLB player, the sort of guy teams routinely release and others sign as organizational depth. Immensely talented athlete no doubt, and a scrub, relative to regular MLBers, with a career that Tim Tebow would have to massively outperform his projections to equal.

TPM posted:

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

Here is the dilemma. If they move him to high A and he he can't produce, 8there goes their attraction and then the experiment is over. They will keep him as long as they can at low A.  Their true prospects will move ahead  of him.  Mets have major league issues right now, this is their ditraction.

AZFL is a future prospect league. Again, it's pretty apparent that he was there for a reason.

JMO

 

I don't know, when you consider that Michael Jordan got a lengthy shot at AA. Don't discount the power of a good distraction and the ability of a club to push the limits of it.

roothog66 posted:

TPM posted:

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

Here is the dilemma. If they move him to high A and he he can't produce, 8there goes their attraction and then the experiment is over. They will keep him as long as they can at low A.  Their true prospects will move ahead  of him.  Mets have major league issues right now, this is their ditraction.

AZFL is a future prospect league. Again, it's pretty apparent that he was there for a reason.

JMO

 

I don't know, when you consider that Michael Jordan got a lengthy shot at AA. Don't discount the power of a good distraction and the ability of a club to push the limits of it.

Just going by what I have seen in that league. 

Tebow is not hitting enough given his age and defense but he is making some contact and getting some extra base hits. Still a lot of bad contact and also Ks but I was expecting it to become a total disaster before it all started (.110, all singles and 50% Ks).

If he can hit 250 with a 160 ISO over the season I would be impressed even if it isn't enough for the next level.

Raise your hand if you seriously thought Tim Tebow would be on a 9 for 20 streak this early on.

Once again, this isn't about whether he will succeed or fail, it's about what is happening.  I know I am surprised that any human being that didn't play baseball for, what is it, 12-13 years and at nearly 30 years old, could go on a 9-20 streak in professional baseball within his first couple weeks.

People can say what they want,  that 9-20 is amazing no matter what happens from here on out.  I mean really... isn't everyone surprised by that?  Surely we know how difficult it is to hit professional pitching at any level. Will that be the highlight of his baseball career?

Honestly I think baseball will just be another chapter in Tebow's life.  I doubt anyone thinks he will actually make it.  But isn't this at least interesting?

I agree. Those A ball pitchers are not great but they still throw 90 plus and to make contact with those pitches and getting some hits is an accomplishment after a 10 year layoff. It doesn't mean he can become a mlb hitter but it means he can play some  ball. Also in the of he has 15 put outs and one error so far with a 940 fielding percentage. Maybe that is not great but last fall people were acting like he couldn't even catch a routine fly ball.

I am not surprised by 9 for 20. These are 21 year olds,  most 21 year olds dont hit 90 and only a few will ever get passed high A. 

I didn't research down the the pitcher level. But Tebow's mini streak occurred against a last place team and a .500 team. 

" . . .  the velocities of A-ball pitchers are slightly below those of major leaguers, on average, but not by as much as some might think. It is quite rare to see a non-sidearmer in full-season ball who doesn’t at least touch 90 mph, and it’s almost unheard of to see one who can’t at least get up to 88." www.hardballtimes.com/how-mino...anges-across-levels/

In the South Atlantic League, which Tebow is playing in, almost two-thirds of pitchers average 90 or above, and, as the article points out, the vast majority at least touch 90.

TPM posted:

As more and more teams get better scouting reports, he will have a tougher time. 

His size is going to hurt him. Someone should tell him that baseball players arent supposed to look like football players.  Pitchers will continue to throw inside fastballs, because he is too big to turn on pitches as others can ( read this in bleacher report).

Once again to keep in mind, he is a 29 year old former college star playing single A milb where the average player is 21.

Tell that to aaron judge. I dont think it will be so much his size but his skill that will ultimately limit him. Of course the scouting reports will be a problem too. Maybe not so much in A ball since many pitchers there are working on specific things rather than trying to get guys out but definitely at higher levels.

2019Dad posted:

" . . .  the velocities of A-ball pitchers are slightly below those of major leaguers, on average, but not by as much as some might think. It is quite rare to see a non-sidearmer in full-season ball who doesn’t at least touch 90 mph, and it’s almost unheard of to see one who can’t at least get up to 88." www.hardballtimes.com/how-mino...anges-across-levels/

In the South Atlantic League, which Tebow is playing in, almost two-thirds of pitchers average 90 or above, and, as the article points out, the vast majority at least touch 90.

Yes. There may be some soft tossing innings eaters but most guys are supposed to become mlb pitchers and you get there by velo. Keep in mind that usually pro pitchers don't gain velo in the majors and many not even in the minors (statistically pitchers throw hardest when they are first called up and then slowly start to lose velo).

What is different between a ball and pro ball is command and especially off speed stuff that is usually not good at that level. They can throw a chase slider in the dirt but not really throw it for strikes consistently so as a hitter you can get pretty far by identifying them and laying them off. In mlb that does not work, those guys will throw them for strikes in any count.