The Clock and 2021s

Many D3’s don’t offer spots or commitments until November.

Many JUCO’s are just getting started with hardcore recruiting in October.

@3and2Fastball posted:

Many D3’s don’t offer spots or commitments until November.

Many JUCO’s are just getting started with hardcore recruiting in October.

Son had a high school teammate (also a catcher) who committed to a D3 around March his senior year.

The answer is no. /thread

Huh? Not even close. NLI's are in November. Mine did not commit until May 1st*....

* Complicated by mono but none-the-less lots of conversations in the winter. 

Same with one of my boys. Had three excellent HA D3 options during Regular decision and committed when he sent in his deposit in April.  Wasn't the traditional path which he tried to take but that's how it finally worked out.  Other kid was ED, though.

No one thinks that the landscape has changed this year and accelerated the clock?

To be clear, I don’t have the answers.  None of us do. On one hand, anyone saying that it’s not over for a 2021 after October is exactly right. But that’s a surface level perspective of the matter. Will some 2021s get offers and commit after 10/31?  Without question. But no one can attest to how many that will actually be. Only that it’ll be less than usual. Some people will win the Powerball in the next year but that’s no reason to believe you have a good shot at winning it.  It’s probably smartest to handle your finances over the next year under the premise that you won’t win it.

I absolutely agree that some 2021s will commit after 10/31, but that’s not a message I’d want to see any 2021 player/parent adopt at this point or even know. Like forget you even heard that and conduct your efforts as if 10/31 is it.  The whole “under promise, over deliver” bit. My 2021 committed back in July and it’s hard to describe how grateful I am for that.  I am really worried for so many of my son’s peers who I’m confident have the desire and talent to play some level of college ball. Am I worrying for no reason? Ask me in August. 

I’ll throw something out there that I’d love get thoughts and predictions on. This is far from a perfect experiment, but it’s close enough to generate some worthwhile dialogue I think. 

We’re in a small state so our PBR rankings only go up to 100. 

Of the 100 ranked 2020s, only 19 didn’t go on to try college ball. About 80 committed.

Of the 100 ranked 2021s, only 30 are committed as of now.  What would be your guess as to how many 2021s here end up committing?  Again, it’s not perfect apples to apples due to so many variables, but is anyone confident that about 80 of them will?

Isn't there a potential overhang of current "COVID Juniors"....guys who are college seniors (2018 HS grads) who could have two years of eligibility left?  I would think that coaches would want to decide on keeping some of these guys before committing to 2021s...especially those who need to win now.   

College rosters are deep normally and they are deeper now then anyone has seen. Simple supply and demand, total number of spots stayed the same, less players left due smaller draft and extended eligibility rules...same amount of freshman moving forward. This ain't rocket science folks a high tide lifts all boats as they say. 

21's at the bottom end of the range are going to get pinched but honestly the bottom end of the range of every class gets pinched IMO

@DanJ posted:

I’ll throw something out there that I’d love get thoughts and predictions on. This is far from a perfect experiment, but it’s close enough to generate some worthwhile dialogue I think. 

We’re in a small state so our PBR rankings only go up to 100. 

Of the 100 ranked 2020s, only 19 didn’t go on to try college ball. About 80 committed.

Of the 100 ranked 2021s, only 30 are committed as of now.  What would be your guess as to how many 2021s here end up committing?  Again, it’s not perfect apples to apples due to so many variables, but is anyone confident that about 80 of them will?

Since it's Top 100, I would hope that 65 or more commit. If not, then there really is no room at the inn this year.

Some people have hit on it already, but here's where I see alot of 2021 kids falling. Alot of really good players atleast in Texas went JUCO due to the backlog of College covid seniors. What I see happening is that alot of colleges atleast in the South are going to be pulling from your JUCO's in the South because I can tell you they're loaded with talent and after a year or two are battle tested and proven. This will push alot of your 2021 kids back to having to go JUCO route if they want to eventually land at a D1. The next couple of years you'll see a high percentage of D1 programs with JUCO kids. Alot already pull from JUCO, but it will be an even higher amount now. My son's JUCO has 7 pitchers 90 plus and by the Spring he said probably 10-12. JUCO ball the next couple of years will be just as competitive as D1.

The pyramid trickle down will continue. I know 5 kids all relatively local who have transferred into a local D2 power from 2018 grad class, all of them were D1 last year, that school already had a full roster...those guys either quit or move to a D3 or different D2. And so it goes. 

@TXdad2019 posted:

Some people have hit on it already, but here's where I see alot of 2021 kids falling. Alot of really good players atleast in Texas went JUCO due to the backlog of College covid seniors. What I see happening is that alot of colleges atleast in the South are going to be pulling from your JUCO's in the South because I can tell you they're loaded with talent and after a year or two are battle tested and proven. This will push alot of your 2021 kids back to having to go JUCO route if they want to eventually land at a D1. The next couple of years you'll see a high percentage of D1 programs with JUCO kids. Alot already pull from JUCO, but it will be an even higher amount now. My son's JUCO has 7 pitchers 90 plus and by the Spring he said probably 10-12. JUCO ball the next couple of years will be just as competitive as D1.

Thinking out loud here...

If the 2021s go Juco then does that hose the 2023s when the Juco kids are all moving on to 4 year schools?

@Francis7 posted:

Thinking out loud here...

If the 2021s go Juco then does that hose the 2023s when the Juco kids are all moving on to 4 year schools?

It may be different in other parts of the country. In the South, if you look at rosters, alot of D1's already pull from JUCO. JUCO in the south is very strong. the elite 2021 will still find d1's, but the rest are going to find themselves struggling. Mine is a D1 bounce back. His D1 wasn't a good fit and went JUCO so he didn't have to sit out a year. Most of the incoming Freshmen from HS 2020 will be redshirted this year due the amount of talent at JUCO level this year. The returning JUCO kids (COVID Freshmen) will most likely leave this year, but will still be bottled up at JUCO level. I'm hearing MLB draft will never go back to 40 rounds and will be around 20 rounds for now on. It's going to be tough in the future baseball wise.

@Francis7 Yes, I don't see how it CAN'T impact the 2023s in that manner.  Assuming it will, we can speculate the same relationship happening between the 2020 JUCOs and 2022s.  This is one of the first specific impact scenarios I've seen written out and I think it's profound in a way.  Most everyone is only talking at a high level when it comes to this.  We all know that some water is going to end up on the floor, but I've yet to see people dig deeper like this and I doubt most coaches are thinking this long term. My guess is that most are taking a "we'll cross that bridge when it comes to it" approach.  The onus is on us and the players to speculate.  All the coaches have to do is pick the best talent that is available at the time.  Sadly, they don't need to care much about the lower and middle tier guys on their rosters as much.  The top tier pipeline will be far more robust than it's ever been before.

I think this specific question is profound because it's only one possible/probable specific scenario.  if we spend the time, we'll come up with many more.  It makes me remember an old looney tune (I think) cartoon where the character finds a leak in a dam, so they plug the hole up with their finger.  But another leak springs, so in goes a finger from the other hand.  So on and so forth.  Something like this.

The fingers and toes are the top tier players and the water on the ground is players who are not top tier.  While this is always the way it works, we can't yet see exactly what the water on the ground consists of.  My fear is that many middle tier players will end up on the ground.  Far more than ever have before.

If you're good enough you'll play. What I see happening is only a handful of meaningful contributors sticking around each year. This year was different as seniors had their season cut short, a lot were asked back to make it right. After this coming season the graduating guys will have played their senior season, the everyday lineup guys and weekend arms will be asked to come back but a lot will be told if they want to use their final season of eligibility they are free to transfer. 

I think the 2021 class will be light, but I see things going back to normal for '22 and 23. The juco market will obviously affect that but a school that didn't take a ton of jucos likely still won't. Schools that were juco transfer heavy still will be. 

A 2021 can easily find a home after October. In fact I think it may be more likely this year considering there is less traveling and in person recruiting. D1 level less likely of course, but a juco will never pass on a late bloomer and D2s and D3s are still active anyway. Like others have said don't bank on it. I wouldn't wait until December to get video out, but it's definitely possible. 

@PABaseball posted:

If you're good enough you'll play. What I see happening is only a handful of meaningful contributors sticking around each year. This year was different as seniors had their season cut short, a lot were asked back to make it right. After this coming season the graduating guys will have played their senior season, the everyday lineup guys and weekend arms will be asked to come back but a lot will be told if they want to use their final season of eligibility they are free to transfer. 

I think the 2021 class will be light, but I see things going back to normal for '22 and 23. The juco market will obviously affect that but a school that didn't take a ton of jucos likely still won't. Schools that were juco transfer heavy still will be. 

A 2021 can easily find a home after October. In fact I think it may be more likely this year considering there is less traveling and in person recruiting. D1 level less likely of course, but a juco will never pass on a late bloomer and D2s and D3s are still active anyway. Like others have said don't bank on it. I wouldn't wait until December to get video out, but it's definitely possible. 

I agree, but if your a coach and you have a 20' and 21' that were successful at the JUCO level that was loaded the last two years, do you skip them for a unproven 22' and 23' out of HS? That's going to be the issue for guys IMO. I guess it will determine what each individual college is looking for though. I forsee alot of redshirts being tagged on incoming guys out of HS for the next couple of years.  

@TXdad2019 posted:

It may be different in other parts of the country. In the South, if you look at rosters, alot of D1's already pull from JUCO. JUCO in the south is very strong. the elite 2021 will still find d1's, but the rest are going to find themselves struggling. Mine is a D1 bounce back. His D1 wasn't a good fit and went JUCO so he didn't have to sit out a year. Most of the incoming Freshmen from HS 2020 will be redshirted this year due the amount of talent at JUCO level this year. The returning JUCO kids (COVID Freshmen) will most likely leave this year, but will still be bottled up at JUCO level. I'm hearing MLB draft will never go back to 40 rounds and will be around 20 rounds for now on. It's going to be tough in the future baseball wise.

A few years ago I read 84% of American MLBers come from the first ten rounds of the draft. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. If 94% of MLBers come from the top twenty rounds why have rounds 21-40? 

Chances are players drafted after round twenty are late blooming pitchers. These players would be better off signing as free agents with an organization they’re more likely to rise to the majors than be stuck in one organization until released.

Any thread that starts a conversation is a good thread. But the opening question falls under the category of “Do you have any control over the situation?” The answer is “no.” You can only think through how to handle your personal situation.

Studs, even relative to each level of play will still be studs. Other players will be pushed down to selecting levels of play they are more likely to succeed in the first place. To reach would be insane for ‘21s and ‘22s.

In the long run the COVID effect will be the same as throwing a rock in the water. Eventually the ripples smooth out and life is back to normal.

i don’t care how few players are selected in the MLB draft. The scouts will find the prospects even if they’re signed as free agents. Most college players are playing for the college playing experience. They (most D1 players in the top ten conferences) only think they’re pro prospects on the way in. 

@RJM posted:

Any thread that starts a conversation is a good thread. But the opening question falls under the category of “Do you have any control over the situation?” The answer is “no.” You can only think through how to handle your personal situation.

Studs, even relative to each level of play will still be studs. Other players will be pushed down to selecting levels of play they are more likely to succeed in the first place. To reach would be insane for ‘21s and ‘22s.

In the long run the COVID effect will be the same as throwing a rock in the water. Eventually the ripples smooth out and life is back to normal.

i don’t care how few players are selected in the MLB draft. The scouts will find the prospects even if they’re signed as free agents. Most college players are playing for the college playing experience. They (most D1 players in the top ten conferences) only think they’re pro prospects on the way in. 

Agree, problem is I think most posters that get on here want to know what happens or what will happen to the guys, who are the majority that fall in the category just under the studs (mainly the mid major D1 guys). I know that's a broad statement, but that's the feeling I get is little Johnny may not be the 95-100 mph stud, but is still D1 worthy. What's going to happen and like you said I don't think anyone knows, no matter what class they are.

@TXdad2019 posted:

I agree, but if your a coach and you have a 20' and 21' that were successful at the JUCO level that was loaded the last two years, do you skip them for a unproven 22' and 23' out of HS? That's going to be the issue for guys IMO. I guess it will determine what each individual college is looking for though. I forsee alot of redshirts being tagged on incoming guys out of HS for the next couple of years.  

I think you're right it would depend on the need of the individual school. I don't see the redshirt thing being an issue. The guys who would have got 12 ABs or 10 innings on the mound might be better served preserving a year of eligibility, but I don't see any young contributors not playing. 

If I had to guess I'd assume a school that usually brings in 12 guys a year may only bring in 8 or 9 for the next few years. More money going back to the roster instead of high school recruits. You give less money out to high schoolers and invest that money back in rostered returning contributors. Anybody you don't want back you just give the money to juco talent or you don't get rid of a recruit like you normally might. 

It's all speculation, just my thoughts. A coach is going to do whatever he wants to do. If that involves bringing every graduating senior back he'll do it. If that involves only bringing two graduating starters back he'll do it. I think any coach with a window to win now will take advantage of the extra year. Any coach in a rebuild I'm sure would like to get back to normal with a younger core sooner rather than later. 

It's going to be very cut throat the next few years.  JUCO is also going to be flooded next year.  I don't think most D1s will have cuts this year, as they don't have roster limits.  Next year, it goes back to normal and they have the added 2021s.  Cuts will be huge in December or maybe even at the end of this year.  A ton of those guys then head to JUCO, mixed in with all the 2021s who choose that for the fall.  Competition is going to be insane.  It was mentioned that a poster's son's juice had 7 kids throwing 90.  After the first scrimmage 2 weeks ago, every freshman (lefties and righties) all threw at least 94 at my son's school.  There are currently 47 guys on the roster and they aren't cutting anyone.  Next year, they add 16 more (based on current 2021 commits) and they only "have" to lose 8.  That's a lot of kids heading somewhere, and that is just one school.

@baseballhs posted:

It's going to be very cut throat the next few years.  JUCO is also going to be flooded next year.  I don't think most D1s will have cuts this year, as they don't have roster limits.  Next year, it goes back to normal and they have the added 2021s.  Cuts will be huge in December or maybe even at the end of this year.  A ton of those guys then head to JUCO, mixed in with all the 2021s who choose that for the fall.  Competition is going to be insane.  It was mentioned that a poster's son's juice had 7 kids throwing 90.  After the first scrimmage 2 weeks ago, every freshman (lefties and righties) all threw at least 94 at my son's school.  There are currently 47 guys on the roster and they aren't cutting anyone.  Next year, they add 16 more (based on current 2021 commits) and they only "have" to lose 8.  That's a lot of kids heading somewhere, and that is just one school.

Agree, son said his JUCO coach said there will be atleast 10 kids go D1 after this year from his school. They currently have 47 kids as well. I'm sure they'll cut some as his JUCO don't like carrying a high number of kids. I would guess down to 30. That's 17 kids looking for a place to play after this Fall. JUCO in the South ain't no joke, especially right now.

Interesting thread. But what about D2, D3? Will players who are not going further than college pay another year of tuition to play ball one more year? or is the quantity of players coming and going similiar to most years?

Mike, this fall is proving out that far more players are willing to do so than anticipated, across all levels.  Certainly less so at the higher academic and more expensive schools where most players/parents are footing a large portion of the bill but still... 

Generally, most D3's tend to be more academically focused, more are private and more expensive.  Combine that with the fact that there is no athletic scholly $ and it is less likely here.  But many D2's and NAIA's will continue to get players return for a variety of reasons.  Some of this will depend on how quickly the job market recovers.  

@TXdad2019 posted:

Agree, son said his JUCO coach said there will be atleast 10 kids go D1 after this year from his school. They currently have 47 kids as well. I'm sure they'll cut some as his JUCO don't like carrying a high number of kids. I would guess down to 30. That's 17 kids looking for a place to play after this Fall. JUCO in the South ain't no joke, especially right now.

IMO COVID is going to be around for awhile.  I doubt that there will be a lot of cutting if kids keep getting sick and have to adhere to medical protocols.

Lots of JUCO’s will have JV teams in the next few years.  Maybe they’ll call it the “B Team” or the “Practice Squad” so as to assuage the kids (and parents!) egos and keep the tuition money coming in.

Anybody want to hazard a guess as to just how difficult it will be to get to a 4 year school from a JUCO JV, oh excuse me, a JUCO B Team?  

I meant to add:  I have cautioned my 2021 to not attend any JUCO unless they show they really love him, specifically meaning giving him a full ride or close to a full ride and have indicated they expect him to come in and compete for a starting spot on Day 1.

Being at a JUCO in the Fall of 2021, where they just “like” you and you are competing against the kids who they “love” and have given full rides to, is a fools errand.  That is doubly so because the amount of D1 drop downs hitting the JUCO campuses in January of 2022 is going to be extensive.

Quite interesting thoughts on the matter, thank you.   Ironically my son (high school senior) is looking at 6 years of college to be a physical therapist. Had he already been in college he'd be one staying an extra year. Do they red shirt in D2, D3? 

@Mike232FD posted:

Quite interesting thoughts on the matter, thank you.   Ironically my son (high school senior) is looking at 6 years of college to be a physical therapist. Had he already been in college he'd be one staying an extra year. Do they red shirt in D2, D3? 

Players get five years to play four. I suppose a player could ask to be redshirted the first year. But what message would he be getting if he’s not on scholarship and the coach jumps on the offer?

@3and2Fastball posted:

Lots of JUCO’s will have JV teams in the next few years.  Maybe they’ll call it the “B Team” or the “Practice Squad” so as to assuage the kids (and parents!) egos and keep the tuition money coming in.

Anybody want to hazard a guess as to just how difficult it will be to get to a 4 year school from a JUCO JV, oh excuse me, a JUCO B Team?  

The 4 year schools with a JV😁

Every athlete needs to do what's best for them given their circumstances.  Some '21's may want to consider delaying the start of their college eligibility clock by taking a gap year to train and improve their skills while taking a couple of college courses as a part-time student. 

@Rick at Informed Athlete posted:

Every athlete needs to do what's best for them given their circumstances.  Some '21's may want to consider delaying the start of their college eligibility clock by taking a gap year to train and improve their skills while taking a couple of college courses as a part-time student. 

My son is older and done playing anymore. But when he was injured in high school we looked into taking a couple of classes at a JuCo, continuing rehab and starting college the following year.

Rick could clarify and comment on this. At the time even though three courses at a JuCo wasn’t considered a full time student it started the five year clock. You can’t take more than two courses per semester. 

@Rick at Informed Athlete posted:

Every athlete needs to do what's best for them given their circumstances.  Some '21's may want to consider delaying the start of their college eligibility clock by taking a gap year to train and improve their skills while taking a couple of college courses as a part-time student. 

We know one 2021 who was told this by a D1. "We like you but we can only take you if you take a gap year and come in with the 22s."

@RJM posted:

My son is older and done playing anymore. But when he was injured in high school we looked into taking a couple of classes at a JuCo, continuing rehab and starting college the following year.

Rick could clarify and comment on this. At the time even though three courses at a JuCo wasn’t considered a full time student it started the five year clock. You can’t take more than two courses per semester. 

An athlete's eligibility clock for D1 starts when:  1) they start attending college classes while registered for a full-time course load as defined by that particular college, or 2) they participate in organized competition for that college.  

RJM, there is a different rule however that likely is the one that impacted your son and started his clock.  Athletes and families considering a gap year need to keep this rule in mind. 

The "delayed enrollment" rule penalizes an athlete if they don't start full-time college enrollment immediately following the gap year AND if they continue to participate in organized competition.   

If he was going to compete for his JUCO or for a travel time after his gap year ended, he would have been penalized a year anyway, so that essentially started his clock even though he wasn't yet taking a full-time course load.  

@RJM posted:

Players get five years to play four. I suppose a player could ask to be redshirted the first year. But what message would he be getting if he’s not on scholarship and the coach jumps on the offer?

Did Covid eligibility impact the 4 in 5 rule?  Example, kid plays freshman year, red shirt sophomore, then Covid hits his junior year.  Has only played 1 in 3. Does he only have 2 years left, playing 3 years out of 5, or does he get a 4th due to the Covid washout?

@CTbballDad posted:

Did Covid eligibility impact the 4 in 5 rule?  Example, kid plays freshman year, red shirt sophomore, then Covid hits his junior year.  Has only played 1 in 3. Does he only have 2 years left, playing 3 years out of 5, or does he get a 4th due to the Covid washout?

The way I understood it, and unless there have been changes I didn't hear about:

D1 2020 spring athletes all got an extra season of eligibility AND another year added to their 5 year clock.

D2 2020 spring athletes got another season of eligibility, but did NOT get another 2 semesters (except those who were seniors in 2020.)  So, basically, for D2, the NCAA just allowed (forced) everyone to burn up their normal red-shirt season in 2020.

Rick @ Informed Athlete would be in tune with the details.  Maybe he will chime in...

@T_Thomas posted:

The way I understood it, and unless there have been changes I didn't hear about:

D1 2020 spring athletes all got an extra season of eligibility AND another year added to their 5 year clock.

D2 2020 spring athletes got another season of eligibility, but did NOT get another 2 semesters (except those who were seniors in 2020.)  So, basically, for D2, the NCAA just allowed (forced) everyone to burn up their normal red-shirt season in 2020.

Rick @ Informed Athlete would be in tune with the details.  Maybe he will chime in...

That answer is spot on.