The One College Baseball Stat You Can't Google

@adbono posted:

I will provide a real life example. My son was a 2018 HS grad and PBR ranked him #11 in our state at his position. Of the 10 players ranked ahead of him 2 of them went JuCo. The remaining 8 went to big name 4 year schools (with 1 exception). Two years have gone by and this is what has happened. The 2 that went JuCo were standouts and have advanced to great D1 programs. Of the 8 that went big time out of HS only 3 are still at their original schools - and only 2 have gotten in the field. The other 5 all bounced down to JuCos after 1 year at their dream school - including the top 3 who all had a PG ranking of 9.5 or 10. All 3 were elite prospects and they were not yet good enough to get on the field at Texas A&M, University of Houston, and Texas Tech as freshmen. I say all the time on this board that hardly any 18 year old kids are ready to play at top ranked programs as a freshman. This is true at D1 & D2. Every kid (and parent) thinks they are the one that can do it. After a year they find out they aren’t.

I’ve always felt the PG rating system is grossly inflated. Every good large high school player I’ve known/known of who is/was a top player has been rated a 9 or better. 9 is potential top ten rounds of the draft. While the key word is potential most of these 9’s were not drafted in the top ten rounds. Some of them weren’t drafted. Some didn’t play D1.

“We’re rating them on potential. We miss a lot both ways.”

- Jerry Ford

PG grades are like SAT scores. Having a high one doesn't guarantee future prosperity. But, having a bad one is not going to open any doors for you.

@RJM posted:

I’ve always felt the PG rating system is grossly inflated. Every good large high school player I’ve known/known of who is/was a top player has been rated a 9 or better. 9 is potential top ten rounds of the draft. While the key word is potential most of these 9’s were not drafted in the top ten rounds. Some of them weren’t drafted. Some didn’t play D1.

“We’re rating them on potential. We miss a lot both ways.”

- Jerry Ford

Completely agree. PG did an unbelievable job of convincing amateur baseball that their ratings were meaningful and necessary. They are neither - but every year thousands of people spend thousands of $ chasing rankings (and metrics) because they have been led to believe that’s the stairway to baseball heaven.

I never bought into their rankings but I did buy into their tournaments.  We did the tournaments because that was the easiest and cheapest place to play in front of college coaches as a whole.  But I only think this is true if you are truly one of the top at least 300-500 players in the nation.  All the rest can find cheaper and easier places to be seen.

The PG grades are only meaningful and necessary for the players...it annoys me how much they obsess over it, my kid included. 

My son didn’t need PG. He was “discovered” at two previous showcases. I believe what East Cobb and Fort Myers did for him was convince him while he wasn’t a top prospect he belonged on the field with them. About 700 players will accept top fifty program offers. About half will stick. Once past the three or four can’t miss recruits it’s more about what’s between the ears and in the heart. Everyone has the physical and baseball potential to succeed.

”discovered” - presold and delivered the performance

I agree with the statements and get the gist of what you'll are saying about PG, but honestly PG don't get it wrong that often. Whether or not these players have any further success down the road is outside of the control PG has to work with. Seriously, they don't have a crystal ball. They can't see into the heart of a kid to see if he will truly grind, or look down the road and predict that arm issue, or that the kid has a family issue that requires him to come back home, or etc.....   also FWIW that stairway someone mentioned becomes very hard to find, let alone ascend, if not for certain events/grades/metrics/hype.

Necessary evil if you ask me, but ultimately necessary to a larger degree in today's current world than you or I would have wanted it to be.

Whether or not you need PG kind of comes down to who you play for in the summer (and PG can open doors to invitations).  My kid needed PG, PBR and camps.  He didn't play for a power team and coaches weren't randomly watching our games.  Without them, he likely wouldn't have been "discovered" .   Even in hs, he played behind two day one draft picks so he committed before he really ever got innings in high school.  For a lot of kids,  these organizations are the best way to be seen.  We have veered off track, but I agree that they usually get it pretty right, they just can't see a kid's drive or commitment from a showcase.  Kids leave and transfer for a multitude of reasons and everyone is just making their best guess as to whether or not their kid has staying power at the school they initially pick.

The rankings don't matter, the tweets don't matter. Those are all published in an effort to get customers to return and spend more money to increase their ranking or get new customers in to get some hype behind their names.

PG was useful for the tournaments. I found that the 3 best tournaments as far as competition and scouting were the WWBA, Ft. Myers, and Wilson Premier. Two of those are attached to PG. When they started getting better and playing big boy baseball, getting them down to Georgia to showcase against the top talent in the country was necessary. Nobody was coming to watch them play at the Summer Slugger's Slamfest against random local teams with kids throwing 78.

At the end of the day, PG and PBR can't tell you where you can play. Only the coaches making the offers are the one's with any opinion that matters. There are top ranked kids committed to sick programs and I say no way in hell will that last. There are others who don't get the credit they deserve that will be a really nice pickup to someone.

That being said. I think PG's number scale is comical and PBRs endless tweeting is equally as bad. Great business models though, I will say that

I don't know.  I see an awful lot of superlatives and exaggerations being passed along as concrete facts and I don't think that's helpful to those who are still navigating their way through this marathon of a gauntlet.  From what I've learned and experienced, very few pieces to the recruiting process are black and white.  I'd argue 95%+ is grey because there are countless variables.

I think a better approach would be to speak about avenues/approaches in terms of how valuable they were/are to a given individual situation.  Then allow those who are trying to learn to absorb it and try applying approaches to their individual situation.

I'll use a low hanging piece of fruit as an example.  The vast majority here feel PG/PBR/etc ratings and rankings are meaningless.  As in, they have zero value.  Zero value and low value are not the same thing.  I'd be more inclined to say that the ratings/rankings are of low value for most, but not zero value.  Let's say Johnny was rated a 6 by PG or is ranked 97th by PBR.  He doesn't feel either are representative of his actual value, so he uses those as motivation.  Motivation to increase his measurables, to focus his preparation for his next PG/PBR showcase, etc.  Is that exactly what PG/PBR are hoping for?  Absolutely, because it brings in more money.  But I wouldn't rush to write off ALL value from something simply because it pads someone's bank account.  To me, that's short-sighted.  And at a time where finding ways to stand out/differentiate are heavily handcuffed due to Covid et al, I'd hate to see anyone write something off simply because a majority consider it to be of zero value.  For most, it's experimentation - trial and error.  Each and every player's path is unique.  With my 2021 recently signing his LOI, I can't look back and find very many things that were truly of zero value.  We turned over about as many stones as we could get our hands on.  I think most things are of low value, so I'm all about stacking up as many low value items as you can.  I haven't seen any high value options that work universally.

I know this did veer off OP, but a couple of comments struck home.

@ReluctantO'sFan They can't see into the heart of a kid to see if he will truly grind,

@baseballhs they just can't see a kid's drive or commitment from a showcase

@PABaseballOnly the coaches making the offers are the one's with any opinion that matters

So I looked back at PG's state rankings for kicks, my son's year. Of the dozens rated in front of him ( including five draftees), only 2 are still playing in minors. At the time,we had always thought of going to more PG events to "raise his grade", but actually felt that individual showcases were more beneficial to him and for the cost.  RipkenFan has a set of tools that are different (80 grade run tool, bright player, plus defense and contact hitter/high OB%, and "intangibles" others noted above.)

One P5 school who recruited him later told HS coach son didn't hit enough for power (son liked that this was HA school, but team also struck out over 35% of the time, so wasn't a good fit). As it turned out, son found the best fit (baseball and otherwise) in college. My wife and I were talking the other day about how many college coaches would have stayed with a player who began his college career, 1 for 22? Coach called RipkenFanSon into his office around this time and said something to the point, "Do you think I am glad I recruited you? Go out and have fun and keep at it" After this meeting, son hit over .400 for the next 10-11 games. " You never know...

Back to the original OP (Francis). My son, hoped to be a starter as a freshman or at least have the opportunity. I remember believing that I thought he would "travel" due to his versatility (IF or OF), pinch run or pinch hit. Once son did crack the starting lineup (during fall actually) it was his mission to work just as hard to stay there.

@DanJ posted:

I don't know.  I see an awful lot of superlatives and exaggerations being passed along as concrete facts and I don't think that's helpful to those who are still navigating their way through this marathon of a gauntlet.  From what I've learned and experienced, very few pieces to the recruiting process are black and white.  I'd argue 95%+ is grey because there are countless variables."

I think most people who say PG and PBR are a waste of time, play for power teams.  They have coaches attending their games.  In today's climate, you have to be creative and have a plan.  We knew what our plan was and it had to include showcases and camps.  That worked for us.  Not sure we would have had the same outcome without it and the tweets and posts from showcases.

I was looking at our state PG list.  For my kids class there are some kids who I'd never heard of.  Guess why they were ranked?  Because they attended PG showcases.  Looking back at our state rankings, PG mostly gets it wrong.  I can point to multiple years where the top player or players came from the 500 or top 1000 ranking.  I think once you get past the top 50-100 it becomes a crap shoot.   

I think there is a lot of hype with rankings. Its sells subscriptions. 

I believe that the PG grade tells the story. Future potential. A player can raise his future potential just as a student can raise his SAT. It takes a lot of hard work to raise and/or improve the grade.

Just an FYI, you do not have to attend a PG event to get a ranking.

Based on some of the posts that followed my first one in this thread I think some may have misconstrued my point. I wasn’t saying that the players ranked above my son were not good players and that the rankings were wrong. They were all very good players and all have gotten even better. My point is that even elite prospect position players with the highest PG rank are hardly ever capable of cracking a D1 lineup (at a top 30 program) as a freshman.

@adbono so glad you said that! You and @TPM hit the nail on the head. It's about potential. Kid still has to live into it and no matter how good you are, it is very hard for an 18 year old to step on campus and immediately excel against 21/22 year olds who were also PG 9.5/10s (or whatever the average grade is at your school) out of high school. But now they have 2-3 more years of training, reps and experience. More muscle and conditioning and the coach already knows what they are capable of at the next level.  So...back to OP, sometimes kids can work their way into consideration and sometimes they can't (or as mentioned before, they leave for a whole host of other reasons).

@adbono posted:

Based on some of the posts that followed my first one in this thread I think some may have misconstrued my point. I wasn’t saying that the players ranked above my son were not good players and that the rankings were wrong. They were all very good players and all have gotten even better. My point is that even elite prospect position players with the highest PG rank are hardly ever capable of cracking a D1 lineup (at a top 30 program) as a freshman.

So did PG miss or did the kid miss????  At least for the vast majority for one reason or another I’m leaning more toward the kid. I’m not saying there isn’t one or two kids here and there that PG should say “ my bad on that one”. I was just implying it doesn’t happen that much.

Don't believe the hype.

Yes, the PG grades mean diddly. Also the rankings are a bit jaded. But just like others PG puts on some legit tournaments with wonderful opportunity and potential for exposure and better competition.

Speaking for RHP....PG loves Velo, not command, not consistency and not longevity. Flashes in the pan get great press, and like others have said, subscriptions. (same with Area Code. they didn't care about command and control and only gas as kids that threw 93+ and couldn't even hit the catcher were kept in 1-3 pitches, yes 19/20 Ks but didn't break 90 weren't).

I'm in data analytics for work so I couldn't help but do a little research. I won't go into details as PG provided GREAT EXPOSURE or better put, doing well at PG events provided great exposure to more colleges and coaches and better competition that we could get in TX.

He understood this and I thought it was cool that my son included a PG hat on his signing table as he appreciated the opportunity and exposure.

PG - I'm not kidding, you can pitch in 0 or 1 event (less than 1 inning pitched, throw 95mph and be ranked higher than others who show up time after time and perform better even at 92 mph. ( 300% more IP, less H & walks, more Ks and way more K/IP over a bigger load). Velo is definitely king.

Was glad my son and his team mates on East Cobb didn't fall victim to the ranking buzz. What they did talk and ask about was "was I posted?" Did they get a mention or tweet and they would all like and retweet it.

@ReluctantO'sFan posted:

So did PG miss or did the kid miss????  At least for the vast majority for one reason or another I’m leaning more toward the kid. I’m not saying there isn’t one or two kids here and there that PG should say “ my bad on that one”. I was just implying it doesn’t happen that much.

I’m not saying that either one missed. I’m saying even the can’t miss 10 PG grade position player most often can’t start at as a freshman at a top 30 D1 program. Watch the video of TCU HC Jim Schlossnagle talk about recruiting today’s players. I will have to paraphrase but essentially he says “the players today hit the ball harder and throw the ball harder than ever before. But they don’t know how to play the game. They don’t know how to do the things that help win games. It takes a year of teaching them before they can be put on the field.”

@Eokerholm posted:

Don't believe the hype.

Speaking for RHP....PG loves Velo, not command, not consistency and not longevity.

I hear you. On a related note you can say PG also loves pop time, even if the throws are no where near the second base bag or into CF.  I had overheard a "veteran" of PG showcases tell his buddy, "Just throw it as hard as you can, don't worry where it goes."

As my son first started doing showcases, I heard many surmise that only velo mattered and where the ball went didn't.  I can't speak for PG; PBR rules our area.  At least with our experience, accuracy DOES matter. For a few reasons.

1) each showcase attendee gets an online write up/Comments along with their measurables.  While some states are better/worse than others with them, this is where accuracy is noted.  If a kid has a cannon for an arm, but throws over a player or into the stands, it should be accounted for there.  I've attended around 8 showcases put on by various orgs over the last year or so, but can't remember a single kid who had outstanding velo but the accuracy of Ricky Vaughn.  I haven't seen one kid be able to work the system/fool anyone.  Maybe a couple pitchers, but we all know that's different in 2020.  If you have Vaughn-like accuracy but throw 95+, you'll be just fine - at least for a while.  But I've yet to see a C who throws 79-81 down to 2B who has horrible accuracy.  Or a guy fielding a ball at SS, who goes into a full wind up or throws a friggin' pulldown over to 1B.  YMMV

2) ratings and rankings get a lot of hate here (and most of it is fair), but go take a look at some of the highest rated/ranked players who have high velos and watch some of their videos from showcases.  Then let me know how many of those guys have accuracies that are a joke.  Here's another angle.  The top PBR INF velo in our state among 2021s is 87 mph.  But the kid who hit that number is only ranked 77th (in a small state).  He's a solid player, but owning that top number in the state is clearly NOT getting him undo love.

3) video of players throwing are uploaded for everyone to see.  So any C who has a 1.75 pop time but his throws end up in the dugout, will be seen.  His 1.75 pop time will certainly get him some initial looks, but once a coach sees his throw downs bounce 3 times on the way to 2B, that'll be the end of that.

I'm sure there are a select few examples where a kid has completely worked the system by throwing accuracy out the window, but I've yet to see one.  But I'd welcome any examples that are backed up with proof.

@DanJ  it happens sometimes when PG scouts the California Penal League.......

@RJM posted:

My son didn’t need PG. He was “discovered” at two previous showcases. I believe what East Cobb and Fort Myers did for him was convince him while he wasn’t a top prospect he belonged on the field with them. About 700 players will accept top fifty program offers. About half will stick. Once past the three or four can’t miss recruits it’s more about what’s between the ears and in the heart. Everyone has the physical and baseball potential to succeed.

”discovered” - presold and delivered the performance

Great post i agree 100%  When was your son recruited? I'm guessing more than 5 years ago?

@KennieProton posted:

Great post i agree 100%  When was your son recruited? I'm guessing more than 5 years ago?

Yes. East Cobb gives it away.