Winter pitching velocity

Six-Four-Three posted:

Hello! I'm looking for some perspective on what I can expect from off-season workouts in terms of pitching velocity. My 2022 (age 15.5) ended last season on a good note, touching 81 and sitting 80 in his last two outings. What can I expect when he starts showcasing next month? He's doing a 4x/week velocity program but has just started throwing lightly. He showcases in the middle of next month. Will he gain because of rest and lifting? Will be stay the same because he hasn't thrown much yet this year? Will he lose a little for the same reason? What's your experience with off-season training and winter velocity? 

My guy was in the same place and yes, he lost a little the first month or so after winter resting. Just takes time for the arm to get used to daily throwing, loosen up, etc.  But by the time the showcases come around he should be back to the level where he left off, maybe a shade stronger or lower depending on how his body reacts.  The benefits show up in a few more months.  Natural progression would be 3-5mph improvement. 

My 2022 ended the summer season in late July regularly hitting 83.  In August he shut down throwing and started working out hard on a program through Cressey Sports Performance.  He started throwing again in mid October touching 85 and touched 87 in early December.  He put on roughly 13lbs of muscle and increased both flexibility and stability in key areas between early August and late October.  Hopefully that is a data point you can use but I am not certain a sample size of one really means anything.

Six-Four-Three posted:

Hello! I'm looking for some perspective on what I can expect from off-season workouts in terms of pitching velocity. My 2022 (age 15.5) ended last season on a good note, touching 81 and sitting 80 in his last two outings. What can I expect when he starts showcasing next month? He's doing a 4x/week velocity program but has just started throwing lightly. He showcases in the middle of next month. Will he gain because of rest and lifting? Will be stay the same because he hasn't thrown much yet this year? Will he lose a little for the same reason? What's your experience with off-season training and winter velocity? 

Between natural growth progression and the velocity program, you can certainly expect to see increases but it really varies by individual.  There is no formula.  There can also be spurts and stalls.  And, yes, certainly during ramp up, you can not only expect regression but must (in effect) force it - vitally important that the ramp up is properly gradual, not rushed.  

In fact, this is one of the challenges to fitting in a rest period, particularly from this age on as he may be dealing with fall/winter showcase opportunities and then, should he play at the next level, summer ball directly into fall college workouts with only a short Christmas break as possible rest time. 

Ideally, you would make sure he has enough time to fully ramp up before attending any showcase where he will feel pressured to register high on the gun and throw max effort.

I don't think attending a showcase in February will serve you much purpose, unless you just want your son to experience that type of setting for down the road.  Sounds like your son did have a rest period, which is imperative.  If he's just starting to throw lightly now, I'm not sure he should be going to a showcase in a month.  As Cabbage points out, he's going to feel pressured to through hard, risk injury, with very little outcome on the other end.

A lot of the PBR state qualifying events are in Feb. At least here in the NE they are presidents week.