219 of the 314 (69.7%) in the first 10 rounds in this draft were taken from D1 schools.

105 of the first 164 picks (first 5 rounds) were D1 college players.

Rounds 3-10 rounds was 181 of 236 (76.7%) D1 players.

38 of the 78 picks on Day 1 were from D1.

Stat provided by Brian Hennessy, Clemson University.

Original Post

I was thinking the top end of the draft (ten rounds) would be college dominated. High school players have to be signable due to money or not being college (academic) material. Once past premier picks teams can take more risks. 

bacdorslider posted:

2018's entire social media foot print has been thoroughly and I thoroughly picked, and he had a couple of posts to remove..... BTW he decided on Vandy......  

BDS, I personally think he made a wise choice. Vandy has proven to develop guys. Short of round 1 money, I would encourage my son to make the same decision if he had to do it all over again. 

bacdorslider posted:

2018's entire social media foot print has been thoroughly and I thoroughly picked, and he had a couple of posts to remove..... BTW he decided on Vandy......  

Congrats. I am pleased to read you are actively involved with this...did your 2018 request your guidance or did you invoke your "parental authority"

2022NYC posted:
bacdorslider posted:

2018's entire social media foot print has been thoroughly and I thoroughly picked, and he had a couple of posts to remove..... BTW he decided on Vandy......  

Congrats. I am pleased to read you are actively involved with this...did your 2018 request your guidance or did you invoke your "parental authority"

backdorslider's son got a very nice offer to give up going to Vandy, but his very smart son decided that the experience he would have at Vanderbilt with Tim Corbin is worth more than money in the bank at this time. Coach Corbin not only is a Hall of Fame college coach but he and his wife also teach players real life skills. That's just awesome to have worked with such an amazing person.

If your player is in middle school or HS and wants to play baseball at the college level, and has not been watching conference playoffs or regionals, IMO there is something wrong.  Win or lose, players have exposure from national TV viewing audience they don't get in professional ball, until they MAYBE reach MLB.

Of course going to play in Omaha is a once in a lifetime experience for players and parents. Watching these players lay it all out on the field to advance is what fuels the fire for the young player to succeed. While every little boy says he wants to play MLB, every little boys dream should be to play in Omaha.

JMO

TPM posted:
2022NYC posted:
bacdorslider posted:

2018's entire social media foot print has been thoroughly and I thoroughly picked, and he had a couple of posts to remove..... BTW he decided on Vandy......  

Congrats. I am pleased to read you are actively involved with this...did your 2018 request your guidance or did you invoke your "parental authority"

backdorslider's son got a very nice offer to give up going to Vandy, but his very smart son decided that the experience he would have at Vanderbilt with Tim Corbin is worth more than money in the bank at this time. Coach Corbin not only is a Hall of Fame college coach but he and his wife also teach players real life skills. That's just awesome to have worked with such an amazing person.

If your player is in middle school or HS and wants to play baseball at the college level, and has not been watching conference playoffs or regionals, IMO there is something wrong.  Win or lose, players have exposure from national TV viewing audience they don't get in professional ball, until they MAYBE reach MLB.

Of course going to play in Omaha is a once in a lifetime experience for players and parents. Watching these players lay it all out on the field to advance is what fuels the fire for the young player to succeed. While every little boy says he wants to play MLB, every little boys dream should be to play in Omaha.

JMO

We were at our local Buffalo Wild Wings yesterday after his middle school playoff semi-finals game (10-0 shutout win btw). He was watching SC light up ARK on the screen and started flipping out, the screen was behind me so I was about to remind him of how we mean parents prefer sane kids behaving in public places. He told me to turn around and I saw all the scoring going on (quite exciting too) but could not see the score because the flat screen was so zoomed in the score box was cut off.  My better half was extremely frustrated during dinner as we barely had any conversations other that the hooting and hollering from all the Super Regional games on the screens.

2018 could have gone pro.... no question.... but really knew about a month ago it would take a lot of money, and honestly more than here was capable of getting in this draft.    The biggest  reason was the experience he can have at Vanderbilt.  He might be the go to guy he might be a bullpen guy I have no idea... but what I do know is the friendships , education, life skills  and the chance to play in big college games could very well happen for him.  

Tim Corbin was quoted in the Nashville paper as saying these kids will never play in a game this exciting unless they make it to the MLB.... which very few do.   The minors is a job and not a fun job at times.  IF ...IF you get the money  I get it..... but 99% don't so go to college, improve your game, mature, and take a shot when you are better prepared.  

 

 

Congrats, I hope it works out for him.

I assume kids like Groome would think they did the right thing as well. It depends on the student, the family and I guess the amount of money!

He signed at 3.5m and now has TJ to recover from. Not sure he was ever really considered a student option but he was a Vandy comit...at least for a longtime he was.

I figure if you’re offered seven figures and turn it down you’re too stupid to go to college. Seven figures at eighteen is a nice head start on life. You can always head for college if baseball doesn’t work out. 

RJM posted:

I figure if you’re offered seven figures and turn it down you’re too stupid to go to college. Seven figures at eighteen is a nice head start on life. You can always head for college if baseball doesn’t work out. 

LOL but what about the college experience....actually I think 2m is more what I would advise my son  if...the if isn't going to happen - but if he got drafted. I hate to minimize 1m but it really doesn't go as far people think and becomes 500k at best by the time you get it. I do agree that anything between 1m and 2m would need to be discussed and anything under 1m would probably be dismissed. That does assume he is a student, doesn't hate school and has some kind of realistic fallback plan if baseball doesn't work out.

if you have no plan and hate school take the money but you had better be smart with it or you will be digging ditches and coaching the XYZ Elite B or C team on weekends.

Add on if you’re getting seven figures you’re getting the priority route to the majors. They want you to make it due to the investment. I causally knew someone who turned down first round money. Over three years he proved he wasn’t a first round pick. He was drafted in the 6th round for a lot less. He’s now 27 in his 4th year of AAA for his second organization. 

I’m not going to do the research. But I’ll bet more players who don’t take the money prove they didn’t deserve it in the first place than double their bonus money. 

I’m not against college. I have two degrees. So do my kids. I’m not telling you you’re wrong. I believe when the money is on the table you take it. College will always be there. 

bacdorslider posted:
RJM posted:

I figure if you’re offered seven figures and turn it down you’re too stupid to go to college. Seven figures at eighteen is a nice head start on life. You can always head for college if baseball doesn’t work out. 

We must be stupid.

Wouldn't be the first time I was called stupid .  Stupidly speaking, even $1mil - $2 mil after TAXES not too much to celebrate.  Still a good chunk of change to live comfortably for several years with solid financial management but still need to have a backup plan.  Cannot go wrong with a degree.  Best of luck at Vandy

Trust In Him posted:
bacdorslider posted:
RJM posted:

I figure if you’re offered seven figures and turn it down you’re too stupid to go to college. Seven figures at eighteen is a nice head start on life. You can always head for college if baseball doesn’t work out. 

We must be stupid.

Wouldn't be the first time I was called stupid .  Stupidly speaking, even $1mil - $2 mil after TAXES not too much to celebrate.  Still a good chunk of change to live comfortably for several years with solid financial management but still need to have a backup plan.  Cannot go wrong with a degree.  Best of luck at Vandy

My point is taking the money doesn’t eliminate college and future earnings if baseball doesn’t work out. But the player gets fast tracked to the majors and has the money invested if he doesn’t waste it.

Heading for college at twenty-four with 1M+ invested isn’t a horrible deal. The last pick in the first round (43rd) walks away with about 900K after taxes. 

For a pitcher a college coach doesn’t get to torch his arm for three or four years trying to get through the post season. 

I saw a post on Twitter yesterday from Jim Callis - senior writer for mlb.com.  Last year only three guys taken in the top 10 rounds didn't get signed.  The year before it was two.  Given how the bonus system works, it appears most teams do their homework on signability numbers for the guys they draft.

I was talking with my 2022 last night and asked him what it would take for him to "go pro" as he calls it.  He said "I don't think that I'd want to, I'd only be 18 and I don't think I'd be ready to be out on my own by myself, plus college baseball looks really fun, and if I'm good the money will be there later".   For a 14U, I was actually sort of impressed that he had thought it out that much.  

1. Not every family is prepared to send their kid to college financially.

2. Not every family is rolling in the dough and can afford to pass up  the draft money

3. Not every player is prepared to become a man at 18. I consider a kid in college becoming a "Man-Light". Before anyone comments, mine did this and grew up across the 3 years there. 

I'm sure this has been posted but here it is again (its older data but i bet it holds):

https://d1baseball.com/analysi...aft-study-1996-2011/

 

Florida State Fan posted:

I did not know that after the 10th round there is no signing bonus.  I know someone who was drafted in the 11th round but didn't see a bonus attached to his name.  Awesome pitcher with electric stuff and awesome person and family.   Am I correct? 

Each pick in the first 10 rounds has a slot value. Each team can spend up to the combined total of their slot values without paying a luxury penalty (they don't have to pay each guy their individual slot value). They can also pay their round 11-40 picks up to $125K each in bonus without paying the luxury penalty. Anything above $125K for an individual counts against their total allotment, so they don't do that very often. Here's an example of what the Indians paid in bonuses last year.

https://www.letsgotribe.com/20...picks-signed-tracker

russinfortworth posted:

I was talking with my 2022 last night and asked him what it would take for him to "go pro" as he calls it.  He said "I don't think that I'd want to, I'd only be 18 and I don't think I'd be ready to be out on my own by myself, plus college baseball looks really fun, and if I'm good the money will be there later".   For a 14U, I was actually sort of impressed that he had thought it out that much.  

That is really impressive, Russ!  Probably best to hold off a while longer on addressing the "plus college baseball looks really fun.." 

russinfortworth posted:

I was talking with my 2022 last night and asked him what it would take for him to "go pro" as he calls it.  He said "I don't think that I'd want to, I'd only be 18 and I don't think I'd be ready to be out on my own by myself, plus college baseball looks really fun, and if I'm good the money will be there later".   For a 14U, I was actually sort of impressed that he had thought it out that much.  

It’s good perspective for a fourteen year old until you hang a couple of million dollars in front of him. The money may not be there three years later. The player could get injured. He could spend three years in a major conference proving he can’t even succeed at that level. There are Gatorade Players of the Year who wash out of college ball or prove they are competent college players and nothing more.

For every action there’s a reaction. A kid my son played travel with stayed back a year entering high school. After his junior year it was decided he was ready for big time college baseball. He was 6’4” 220. He got his GED and headed for a big time program. The coach hailed him as possibly his best recruit ever. He didn’t start in three years by opening of conference play. Had he stayed in high school for his senior year and destroyed the league he probably would have gone in the first three rounds and got his shot. Money was not an issue in this situation.

In turn a kid from our high school was drafted in the 7th round when he said he would pass on a powerhouse, ranked academic. He didn’t sign for anywhere near a million. But he felt he owed his grandmother for raising him. He looked in the mirror and saw a high school stud. After the fact (released after three years of failure in low minors) he told me what he failed to see was he was headed for the minors as a 6’1” 170 physically underdeveloped 17yo to compete with mostly 21 and 22yo men.

Shoveit4Ks posted:

1. Not every family is prepared to send their kid to college financially.

2. Not every family is rolling in the dough and can afford to pass up  the draft money

3. Not every player is prepared to become a man at 18. I consider a kid in college becoming a "Man-Light". Before anyone comments, mine did this and grew up across the 3 years there. 

I'm sure this has been posted but here it is again (its older data but i bet it holds):

https://d1baseball.com/analysi...aft-study-1996-2011/

 

Great post, the value of money is a variable based off what you have, need and desire.

1M to some is life changing, to others it is just a data point. Keep in mind you are seeing 1/2 after taxes, you need 2m to see around 1m, that changes the math dramatically.

I can tell you I would have pushed hard for my 18 yr son to go to college. Life in the minors would have destroyed him, he had his struggles with his first semester but battled through and had a nice year. Living alone in some dump apartment in whatever rookie ball town he would landed in - Wow that would have been ticking time bomb. He would have failed...and accomplished nothing. That isn't an insult to him that is just the facts, this coming year he may have been ok, much changes in the 12 months from start of Freshman to Sophomore year. I have seen that in person.

I do think teams understand who are really interested in going to school or not. There is no way they just waste a pick in the top 5 or even 10 rounds if they don't believe they have a high chance of getting the kid.

old_school posted:
Shoveit4Ks posted:

1. Not every family is prepared to send their kid to college financially.

2. Not every family is rolling in the dough and can afford to pass up  the draft money

3. Not every player is prepared to become a man at 18. I consider a kid in college becoming a "Man-Light". Before anyone comments, mine did this and grew up across the 3 years there. 

I'm sure this has been posted but here it is again (its older data but i bet it holds):

https://d1baseball.com/analysi...aft-study-1996-2011/

 

Great post, the value of money is a variable based off what you have, need and desire.

1M to some is life changing, to others it is just a data point. Keep in mind you are seeing 1/2 after taxes, you need 2m to see around 1m, that changes the math dramatically.

I can tell you I would have pushed hard for my 18 yr son to go to college. Life in the minors would have destroyed him, he had his struggles with his first semester but battled through and had a nice year. Living alone in some dump apartment in whatever rookie ball town he would landed in - Wow that would have been ticking time bomb. He would have failed...and accomplished nothing. That isn't an insult to him that is just the facts, this coming year he may have been ok, much changes in the 12 months from start of Freshman to Sophomore year. I have seen that in person.

I do think teams understand who are really interested in going to school or not. There is no way they just waste a pick in the top 5 or even 10 rounds if they don't believe they have a high chance of getting the kid.

Some organizations are good about placing younger players in homes with structure and guidance like in college summer programs. The Red Sox even place younger AA players in family’s homes.

RJM posted:
old_school posted:
Shoveit4Ks posted:

1. Not every family is prepared to send their kid to college financially.

2. Not every family is rolling in the dough and can afford to pass up  the draft money

3. Not every player is prepared to become a man at 18. I consider a kid in college becoming a "Man-Light". Before anyone comments, mine did this and grew up across the 3 years there. 

I'm sure this has been posted but here it is again (its older data but i bet it holds):

https://d1baseball.com/analysi...aft-study-1996-2011/

 

Great post, the value of money is a variable based off what you have, need and desire.

1M to some is life changing, to others it is just a data point. Keep in mind you are seeing 1/2 after taxes, you need 2m to see around 1m, that changes the math dramatically.

I can tell you I would have pushed hard for my 18 yr son to go to college. Life in the minors would have destroyed him, he had his struggles with his first semester but battled through and had a nice year. Living alone in some dump apartment in whatever rookie ball town he would landed in - Wow that would have been ticking time bomb. He would have failed...and accomplished nothing. That isn't an insult to him that is just the facts, this coming year he may have been ok, much changes in the 12 months from start of Freshman to Sophomore year. I have seen that in person.

I do think teams understand who are really interested in going to school or not. There is no way they just waste a pick in the top 5 or even 10 rounds if they don't believe they have a high chance of getting the kid.

Some organizations are good about placing younger players in homes with structure and guidance like in college summer programs. The Red Sox even place younger AA players in family’s homes.

RJM is correct.  Son is in Boise, Idaho and is living with a host family.  I have no idea how it works at the other levels with the Rockies, but this is a great set up.

I know a host family who came home at midnight and found the player bending their 18 year old daughter over the sofa...true story. It was consensual but needless to say it didn't end well!! She was a cute, had just graduated HS and was ugh I guess was prepping for college...can't say many would blame the kid but damn her mother was pissed!!

MidAtlanticDad posted:
Florida State Fan posted:

I did not know that after the 10th round there is no signing bonus.  I know someone who was drafted in the 11th round but didn't see a bonus attached to his name.  Awesome pitcher with electric stuff and awesome person and family.   Am I correct? 

Each pick in the first 10 rounds has a slot value. Each team can spend up to the combined total of their slot values without paying a luxury penalty (they don't have to pay each guy their individual slot value). They can also pay their round 11-40 picks up to $125K each in bonus without paying the luxury penalty. Anything above $125K for an individual counts against their total allotment, so they don't do that very often. Here's an example of what the Indians paid in bonuses last year.

https://www.letsgotribe.com/20...picks-signed-tracker

Everyone hasn't signed yet, so there may not be a dollar amount listed.   It's a waiting game to see who at the top signs for what amount to see if there is any/how much money is left over for the 11-40 round guys.  Keep checking.  Sometimes deals are worked out before the draft to go in later rounds for more money than $125k,   just as you see some $5k-$10k-$25k bonus guys in the 7-10th rounds (usually seniors with no other options). 

 

I the last years the draft trend was slightly leaning towards college players because you have more data against good competition meaning less bust potential and also college players arriving quicker in the majors which is a plus too.

High school players tend to have a higher ceiling because the top talents will be drafted out of high school but also a higher bust rate.

Teams currently seem to be interested more on floor rather than ceiling. Dansby Swanson is a good example of this. He was a mature hitter with a lot of good tools across the board but not really a single plus tool. He was drafted first overall despite teams knowing he likely won't be a star hitter but they liked that he had a good chance of becoming  a 270 hitter with 15 bombs and solid defense at  shortstop.

9and7dad posted:

I saw a post on Twitter yesterday from Jim Callis - senior writer for mlb.com.  Last year only three guys taken in the top 10 rounds didn't get signed.  The year before it was two.  Given how the bonus system works, it appears most teams do their homework on signability numbers for the guys they draft.

They have to have a good idea what they will sign for.  This is usually worked out prior to the draft pick announcement.  "Note: If a team fails to sign a player, the slot value from that pick is removed from the bonus pool. This is why you’ll see teams heavily taking college seniors in the 6 to 10 round range: the team can sign those players for $1,000 to $10,000, and “save” money to be applied elsewhere in the Draft."  If you fail to sign a top draft pick worth several million $$ it will create big problems and other penalties may occur with bonus pool.

Trust In Him posted:
9and7dad posted:

I saw a post on Twitter yesterday from Jim Callis - senior writer for mlb.com.  Last year only three guys taken in the top 10 rounds didn't get signed.  The year before it was two.  Given how the bonus system works, it appears most teams do their homework on signability numbers for the guys they draft.

They have to have a good idea what they will sign for.  This is usually worked out prior to the draft pick announcement.  "Note: If a team fails to sign a player, the slot value from that pick is removed from the bonus pool. This is why you’ll see teams heavily taking college seniors in the 6 to 10 round range: the team can sign those players for $1,000 to $10,000, and “save” money to be applied elsewhere in the Draft."  If you fail to sign a top draft pick worth several million $$ it will create big problems and other penalties may occur with bonus pool.

I think the teams do negotiate with the "advisors" before the draft and get pretty much a hard number,both agents and teams know pretty much how much the player is worth. If you don't sign a player you lose the bonus pool money, but you get the pick back next year although I think one pick worse.

 

astros did that when they low balled aiken after realising he had a damaged UCL. lost the pick and the bonus money but they did get the second pick in alex bregman next year. worked out pretty well for them. they failed to sign their 5th rounder Jacob nix that year due to the lost bonus but bregman became an above average mlb player while aiken seems to be a bust.

astros really dodged a bullet of wasting another first overall pick after Mark appell plus they were able to use that extra money they lost last year to sign Daz cameron out of HS which they otherwise couldn't likely have done.

Looking at the signing bonus on draft tracker, there had to be a lot of prior discussion and as usual the player got hosed. In other words they made deals  land just inserted the player where it was most beneficial. I see a lot of 5k and 10k signings in slots that were worth much more than the player signed for.

Teams still have the upper hand in the draft. Don't ever forget that.

 There are good teams and good players in every college conference but MLB clearly sees the SEC as having the best players.  Here are the # of players just drafted in each of the Power 5 conferences :                                                      SEC : 99                                                                                                                               ACC : 75                                                                                                                              PAC 12 : 49                                                                                                                         BIG 12 : 47                                                                                                                          BIG 10 : 37                                                                                                                          To reinforce other posts about slot value, college seniors having no leverage, etc.......A college senior that I help coach went in the 7th round and signed for   20K.  Was agreed to before the pick was made.

 

 

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