34 player rosters-one opinion

@adbono posted:

  From the perspective of the players & parents, an expectation that (since you were recruited) a player had a roster spot for 4 years, regardless of how he performs, when he arrives on campus is totally unrealistic outside of D3.

You know this, I know it (from reading this site), everyone here knows this.  But most people don't.  Should there be disclosure, or should it just be buyer beware?

Lots of people buy clunker cars, too.

@PABaseball posted:

I'm of the opinion each school should have to make a documented formal offer in writing,

Yes, and these should be allowed with no age limit.  If 9th-graders could sign contracts with colleges, you could bet that early offers and "commitments" would vanish quicker than smoke.  No coach would want to be legally bound to someone at age 14; they would hold off until senior year.

@PABaseball posted:

The roster limit was always 35. Bringing it back to 34 really should not be an issue. I get it, they upped the roster limits and now there need to be cuts.

To get upset about that is shortsighted. What people should be yelling at the clouds about is the fact that the NCAA (and society) made a bunch of reactionary decisions in 2020. Everybody gets to play, everybody gets to stay. There are now 5x All Americans in a league where you only have 4 years of eligibility. Make that make sense.

In a very short period of time we saw an extra year of eligibility added, the MLB draft get shortened by 88%, roster expansion, penalty free transfers, blanket waivers, NIL deals, now roster reduction, and 100% scholarships for those who can afford it.

This whole situation was caused by those who preached doomsday in 2020 and pushed for what was wanted and not what made sense. It is now the wild west. The people got what they wanted and they don't like it. The parallels to the world beyond sports are eerily similar.

Agree with overall premise.

Can't lose a year of eligility if you don't play.

MLB eliminating 40 minor league teams removed jobs.

Decision by SCOTUS forced more open market based on $$$.

Since it is a business, unless the player is under contract for x number of years, should a player be penalized for looking for other opportunities?

@anotherparent posted:

Have to say I don't agree.  The model is the college process generally.

To be admitted to a college as a student, you apply and are accepted, you pay tuition, and attend classes.  They don't give you more tests after you get there, and turn some people away.   If you do the work, you will get a degree.

That's the model I think people assume for college baseball.  You get recruited, are accepted with some kind of offer, work hard, and have a roster spot.

The assumption is that if you have been offered a spot on the team, the coach has already kicked the tires, just like the admissions office has.  Obviously the coach will be evaluating you for playing time, but why would anyone assume that the coach is going to be doing more evaluation with an eye to rejecting you?  Unless he has told you that is what he does.

@anotherparent based on the number of players on rosters, the coach is kicking a lot of tires.

Here is some info that may be of interest to those interested in researching D1 baseball programs.

Athletic D1 teams are not required to post fall rosters. It's not the coaching staffs job.

One of the conclusions I came to after making inquiries, gathering new transfer bio as well as updating current player info has slowed down the process.

I can't speak for all divisions, but D1 programs employ staff that inputs student information to the SID (Student Information Director). Depending on the size of the institution, depends on staff, many are grad students. That SID is also responsible for all published info written for the team. It's a big job.

I can't say why coaches over recruit. Each has their own reason. I can give some info on how to determine if the coaching staff is legit.  Until a definite ruling comes down from NCAA parents and players will have to determine whether that coach you want to play for is ethical or not.

@TPM posted:

Here is some info that may be of interest to those interested in researching D1 baseball programs.

Athletic D1 teams are not required to post fall rosters. It's not the coaching staffs job.

One of the conclusions I came to after making inquiries, gathering new transfer bio as well as updating current player info has slowed down the process.

I can't speak for all divisions, but D1 programs employ staff that inputs student information to the SID (Student Information Director). Depending on the size of the institution, depends on staff, many are grad students. That SID is also responsible for all published info written for the team. It's a big job.

I can't say why coaches over recruit. Each has their own reason. I can give some info on how to determine if the coaching staff is legit.  Until a definite ruling comes down from NCAA parents and players will have to determine whether that coach you want to play for is ethical or not.

@tpm  good  to know.  based on what we've extracted over the years, you can see which schools have the resources to maintained roster information for all sport programs.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@tpm  good  to know.  based on what we've extracted over the years, you can see which schools have the resources to maintained roster information for all sport programs.

@TPM posted:

Here is some info that may be of interest to those interested in researching D1 baseball programs.

Athletic D1 teams are not required to post fall rosters. It's not the coaching staffs job.

One of the conclusions I came to after making inquiries, gathering new transfer bio as well as updating current player info has slowed down the process.

I can't speak for all divisions, but D1 programs employ staff that inputs student information to the SID (Student Information Director). Depending on the size of the institution, depends on staff, many are grad students. That SID is also responsible for all published info written for the team. It's a big job.

I can't say why coaches over recruit. Each has their own reason. I can give some info on how to determine if the coaching staff is legit.  Until a definite ruling comes down from NCAA parents and players will have to determine whether that coach you want to play for is ethical or not.

@TPM what we've noticed, as colleges have switched from custom to sidearm or presto, the data has gotten better.

Within d1 most are 85% good, HBCU programs are lacking.

With respect to other divisions:

d2 - ok, might be missing transfer data

d3 - ok, normally missing transfer data

NAIA - Incomplete, definitely missing transfer data, high school

JUCO normally incomplete, definitely missing previous school (if college),

NCCAA/ USCAA - similar to NAIA

@PABaseball posted:

To answer this part.

The process is far too informal. There should be formal offers and accountability for the programs. I'm of the opinion each school should have to make a documented formal offer in writing, and there should be a hard cap on how many offers each school can make and a cap on the size each recruiting class. Once a formal offer is made schools cannot renege. Let's say you could only make 50 offers and you can only bring in 12 recruits/class - wouldn't we think coaching staffs would be more inclined to do their homework, develop relationships, watch these kids for 2-3 years before making a decision? Up until recently even football had a hard cap of 25 recruits/class.

One of the many issues is there is no accountability or discipline for the schools. In order to prevent over recruiting, oversight from a governing body would be necessary.

Sure you still get your 3rd parties making back door deals and what not but there is no confusion. You either have a formal offer or you do not. Eliminates any confusion when it comes to an offer being there. Verbals are garbage and leaves the players/families solely reliant on the integrity of the staff. It needs to be taken out of the equation completely.

Essentially a capped NLI with a much larger signing window

@pabaseball

"wouldn't we think coaching staffs would be more inclined to do their homework, develop relationships, watch these kids for 2-3 years before making a decision?"

Unfortunate the numbers don't bear out, there is more supply than demand, if I'm the coach, and the cap is 34, then I want an additional 6 to 8 student athletes for the fall semester. IMHO, that is not over-recruiting, that is having reserves as a just in case.

As for capped NLI, with larger signing window, I'm assuming that you are referring specific to HS players. What would you propose as a fair signing window for HS Players?

With respect to head coaching changes, how does that factor into the process? Would there be exceptions to the rules?

HC Changes normally create a domino effect, which trigger student athletes to search for other opportunities.

Post Covid (2021) -Roughly 14% - 16% HC Turnover annually.

E.G. Mitch Hannahs left Indiana State ->  USF

Tracy Archuleta left Southern Indiana -> Indiana State

Southern Indiana hired Chris Ramirez on July 7th,

https://collegebaseballinsight...l-coaching-carousel/

Here is what Chris Ramirez did to recruit for the fall

2024 fall roster by position and graduation class

Players that are not on 2024 fall roster

Incoming recruiting class

I need my coffee to read over the above but I agree there has to be accountability.

From my understanding the NLI, which has become worthless, will be replaced with a written contract and 5th,6th year players will become obsolete.

JMO

One other point to make in this discussion.

Every college coach has to answer to his/her boss, the AD who also employ assistant ADs and compliance people to each team. A coach doesn't decide on his own to bring in huge numbers.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@pabaseball

"wouldn't we think coaching staffs would be more inclined to do their homework, develop relationships, watch these kids for 2-3 years before making a decision?"

Unfortunate the numbers don't bear out, there is more supply than demand, if I'm the coach, and the cap is 34, then I want an additional 6 to 8 student athletes for the fall semester. IMHO, that is not over-recruiting, that is having reserves as a just in case.

As for capped NLI, with larger signing window, I'm assuming that you are referring specific to HS players. What would you propose as a fair signing window for HS Players?

With respect to head coaching changes, how does that factor into the process? Would there be exceptions to the rules?

HC Changes normally create a domino effect, which trigger student athletes to search for other opportunities.

The bolded is predicated on the idea that there will be some sort of formal offer which would be capped. If coaches could only put out X amount of offers. I have to believe this would be the case. Prior to Covid there were reserves (just in case) - they were walk ons and you were allowed 8 after the 27 scholarship players were accounted for.

A fair signing window would be from June 1 entering senior year until Aug 1 entering college. If the draft kills you, transfers kill you, etc you essentially have until school starts to backfill those positions. This is where you go and get your transfers, your late bloomers, etc. This also prevents premature commitments and lower likelihood of HC change.

And in order to hold the recruit accountable, the only time they should be able to able to walk away from their commitment would be for a HC change.

Colleges have been more concerned with getting there first, not getting their guys. This eliminates that.

@PABaseball posted:

The bolded is predicated on the idea that there will be some sort of formal offer which would be capped. If coaches could only put out X amount of offers. I have to believe this would be the case. Prior to Covid there were reserves (just in case) - they were walk ons and you were allowed 8 after the 27 scholarship players were accounted for.

A fair signing window would be from June 1 entering senior year until Aug 1 entering college. If the draft kills you, transfers kill you, etc you essentially have until school starts to backfill those positions. This is where you go and get your transfers, your late bloomers, etc. This also prevents premature commitments and lower likelihood of HC change.

And in order to hold the recruit accountable, the only time they should be able to able to walk away from their commitment would be for a HC change.

Colleges have been more concerned with getting there first, not getting their guys. This eliminates that.

@pabaseball  Understood.  Prior to covid, 35 was not a hard set rule, based on numbers 1/3 of the D1 schools had 36 or more players.

As for lower HC Change, don't know if there is a correlation, there is normally 10% turnover

As for College coaches, depending on the school, many are looking for more experience, thus they are holding off signing high school recruits early.

With respect to "recruit accountability"  what is the definition of commitment?  verbal or signed NLI?

@DaddyBaller posted:

This sums it up so well.

This was my wake up call that I would have never known about until I found this site.

I am strictly talking about that freshman year. The idea that you can be offered a spot on the team ,even be offered an athletic scholarship, but still be told you will never see the field and if you want to play baseball that you need to leave ASAP after maybe 2 months of observation?

That is the "secret" I know that the vast majority of baseball parents are completely oblivious to.

As @anotherparent so eloquently stated, it doesn't work that way for the non-sports students and to my knowledge I don't know if it happens in any other sport? That's why I asked about lacrosse and soccer as the roster composition is similar to baseball.

And the "dirty" part of the secret is that even if we accept the fact that as of today a coach can bring in an unlimited players for a defined number of roster spots they never present it to the high school athlete and family as a an offer to *try out* for the team. Because they know full well that very few would accept the risk of enrolling in a college with absolutely no guarantee of at least 1 full year to prove themselves.

Why would any 1st time parent or player even think to "do the research" about getting cut fall freshman year if they didn't know that was a possibility? Meanwhile the people who have complete knowledge and control over the situation purposely choose to withhold that information for their own benefit.

Now you can say "welcome to the real world" , but there are tons of laws and regulations for deceptive business practices in this country. And it would not take a genius to come up with simple rules so the freshman athlete knows exactly what they are signing up for.

This post is spot on. Coaches shouldn't be able to have it both ways. If they want to over commit with walk-ons, fine, but only after the player and parents know that it's basically a Fall try out and the player could very well be cut in the Fall.  However, if a player was scouted and recruited then signs an NLI with a scholarship, that player should have a guaranteed roster spot for at least one season of ball. That's not to say the HC needs to guarantee the player playing time. My son was just cut, actually "redshirted" (HC explained there won't be a spot next season either due to the 34-man roster) with 10 other incoming freshmen at a D1 Mid-Major and he was on scholarship. Had a 3.90 ERA in fall with one iffy outing out of 5. Sits 90-93. When he signed his NLI the team had 12 incoming freshmen for a total of 43 on the roster as in prior years. However, in the 4 months prior to fall workouts, the HC recruited 6 more players out of the portal. Some from P4 schools bringing roster to 49. THEN, the NCAA comes out with the 34-man roster change for next year. So, HC decided to screw the freshman and keep the upperclassmen to slim down his roster for the impending changes.

So, doing your "homework" doesn't always work out. I did the homework.

The only thing that will stop the madness is if the NCAA require NLI signees to be guaranteed a roster spot for at least one season. If the coach recruited that player in error, too bad on him and his recruiting coordinator. They don't have to give the kid playing time.  I understand the goal is winning. But these are young kids that put their heart and soul into this game. You just don't throw them away like trash for a last-minute shiny new toy. Here's a news flash! THERE'S ALWAYS going to be someone better. Your kid throws 95? Well, a new portal kid throws 96! Your Kid hit 350?  Well, a new portal kid hit 390!  You get the idea.  The players deserve to be just as much protected as the coaches are. JMO

So sorry to hear about your son @Mechanized.  It's such a a screwed up system.

Was telling my 2025 about these stories about scholarship D-1 freshmen getting cut and he casually dropped the names of 3 2024's from his travel organization that were D-1 mid major signees that are all now transferring to jucos for the spring.

I wish the best for your son and all these kids, but completely understand now their heartbreak just transfers downhill to some poor kids who thought they had a juco roster spot.

@Mechanized posted:

This post is spot on. Coaches shouldn't be able to have it both ways. If they want to over commit with walk-ons, fine, but only after the player and parents know that it's basically a Fall try out and the player could very well be cut in the Fall.  However, if a player was scouted and recruited then signs an NLI with a scholarship, that player should have a guaranteed roster spot for at least one season of ball. That's not to say the HC needs to guarantee the player playing time. My son was just cut, actually "redshirted" (HC explained there won't be a spot next season either due to the 34-man roster) with 10 other incoming freshmen at a D1 Mid-Major and he was on scholarship. Had a 3.90 ERA in fall with one iffy outing out of 5. Sits 90-93. When he signed his NLI the team had 12 incoming freshmen for a total of 43 on the roster as in prior years. However, in the 4 months prior to fall workouts, the HC recruited 6 more players out of the portal. Some from P4 schools bringing roster to 49. THEN, the NCAA comes out with the 34-man roster change for next year. So, HC decided to screw the freshman and keep the upperclassmen to slim down his roster for the impending changes.

So, doing your "homework" doesn't always work out. I did the homework.

The only thing that will stop the madness is if the NCAA require NLI signees to be guaranteed a roster spot for at least one season. If the coach recruited that player in error, too bad on him and his recruiting coordinator. They don't have to give the kid playing time.  I understand the goal is winning. But these are young kids that put their heart and soul into this game. You just don't throw them away like trash for a last-minute shiny new toy. Here's a news flash! THERE'S ALWAYS going to be someone better. Your kid throws 95? Well, a new portal kid throws 96! Your Kid hit 350?  Well, a new portal kid hit 390!  You get the idea.  The players deserve to be just as much protected as the coaches are. JMO

I understand where you’re coming from BUT what is the value of being rostered for a year when the coach has no intent in playing him?

It doesn’t matter if a roster has 34 or 50. If a player doesn’t perceive fitting in somewhere between player 18-20 he’s not getting on the field. The goal is not to make the roster. The goal is to get on the field.

To figure this out the player and parents have to really pay attention to what is said during recruiting. They also have to pay attention to the level of urgency the team has in recruiting the player. If a player gets the sense he’s in the B list it’s probably time to move on.

You have a point .. However.. I can assure you there wasn’t EVER a mention of being on a B list. Again .. he was given a great Athletic scholarship so this isn’t a situation where the homework wasn’t done .. Again when a coach has unlimited access to thousands of players there will ALWAYS  be able to find someone better last minute..That cannot continue to stand .
AND of course the goal is to get on the field. But when it goes to crap (often times nowadays through no fault of the players performance) ie: last minute portal commits then damage control is the priority.
To answer your question about the value of being rostered for a year. I get your point that if you’re not playing you’re not getting better. But there IS value in hitting the portal AFTER the season in that you can laterally move to another D1 .. Where as being cut in the Fall now forces a player to go juco or D2/D3 which also puts you at a dis advantage when you hit the portal in the Spring as opposed if you were coming from a D1 school from a good conference. Not to mention it screws players in Juco and D2/D3 that now are pushed aside for D1 kids coming to those schools last minute.
it’s a ripple effect. Only to get even worse with the 34 man roster next season.
Someone posted on here that this will eventually drive kids away from playing this game and ultimately the MLB will pay the price of losing their fan base in years to come.
I concur.

  I am against over-recruiting as much as anyone and have posted on that subject many times - always as a player’s advocate. Part of the work I do in baseball is advising the HS players that I coach/train as they go thru the recruiting process. I advise their parents as well. Over the past 10 years I have helped more than 30 players get placed in college baseball programs - including 2 of my sons. I understand the dysfunction of the recruiting process from the perspective of players and families as well as anyone.

   I am also in my 8th year of coaching at the Junior College level. During that time I have coached in NJCAA Regions 5 and 2. In all 8 of those years I have been involved in recruiting really good players  - mostly in Texas and Oklahoma. So I also understand the process from the perspective of the schools and, let me assure you, there is dysfunction on the side of the players and parents too. IMO most of the problems on this side are a result of receiving bad advice and/or not understanding how the process works. The bad advice can come from a HS coach, a private instructor, a friend, a scouting service, social media, etc. There are no limits on where bad information comes from but the result is usually the same. The player and parents overvalue their worth and develop unrealistic expectations.

Players have been cut from (or told to leave) programs for decades. The reasons include poor performance, injury, poor grades, bad attitude, etc. There have always been conditions associated with being on a college baseball roster. Players and parents don’t seem to understand this as well as they used to. There have never been any guarantees associated with college baseball and the more competitive the program the bigger the risk. The way to mitigate the risk is by making good decisions. I’m willing to bet that almost every freshman cut from a D1 program passed on an offer from what they perceived to be a lesser program. Almost every player I know of accepts a lesser offer from a P4 over a big offer from a mid-major. Or they take a lesser offer from a D1 mid-major over a big offer from a D2. My contention is that in most cases these are bad decisions. The marketplace tells the player where he belongs and the player/parent decides to defy what the market says ( in conditions that clearly put the player in a severe disadvantage) and decides to “bet on himself” - then cries foul when it doesn’t work out. When people talk about doing your homework, understanding market conditions is part of that. For the past 5 years market conditions have featured a gross over supply of players, which puts the players at an unfair disadvantage. These market conditions would dictate a different, more risk averse, strategy than before Covid and related changes. But have players/parents adjusted their strategies based on what has happened?!? IMO, no. They have not. If anything I hear more of the “D1 or bust” mentality than ever before.

  Market conditions in college baseball have become very difficult over the past few years. But players and parents have (for the most part) not adjusted. These are my observations. Make of them what you will.

@Mechanized posted:

You have a point .. However.. I can assure you there wasn’t EVER a mention of being on a B list. Again .. he was given a great Athletic scholarship so this isn’t a situation where the homework wasn’t done .. Again when a coach has unlimited access to thousands of players there will ALWAYS  be able to find someone better last minute..That cannot continue to stand .
AND of course the goal is to get on the field. But when it goes to crap (often times nowadays through no fault of the players performance) ie: last minute portal commits then damage control is the priority.
To answer your question about the value of being rostered for a year. I get your point that if you’re not playing you’re not getting better. But there IS value in hitting the portal AFTER the season in that you can laterally move to another D1 .. Where as being cut in the Fall now forces a player to go juco or D2/D3 which also puts you at a dis advantage when you hit the portal in the Spring as opposed if you were coming from a D1 school from a good conference. Not to mention it screws players in Juco and D2/D3 that now are pushed aside for D1 kids coming to those schools last minute.
it’s a ripple effect. Only to get even worse with the 34 man roster next season.
Someone posted on here that this will eventually drive kids away from playing this game and ultimately the MLB will pay the price of losing their fan base in years to come.
I concur.

@Mechanized Unfortunately, travel and showcase baseball business model has created a false impression of what is actually available. I don't have to tell everyone on this board what they spent in time and $$$ from 13u to 18u, just to find out college baseball is a totally different beast. 

The challenge with many is the notion of being on the top team in any organization (school) day one.

Note, in high school you have 2 to 3 teams (Freshman, JV and Varsity), professional baseball has minor league, thus there is a mindset that you will have to go through a development process in order to move up.

College Baseball programs as a whole don't have JV Teams and for those programs that do, might carry a stigma, do you really have a chance to play varsity at some point in one's career.

Based on changes in the landscape, this natural contraction (including the ripple effect) was expected to happen.

As for doing one's homework, it important from the standpoint of educating yourself, set realistic expectation, and being able to adapt to changes, with the understanding of being more STUDENT than Student-Athlete.

Note, one recommendation that we state is to look at how a school's player attrition rate is trending. This is all related to the tenure of the coach and the resources available.

Look for stability

Coach has about 3 yrs to get his type of team

E.G. New hires will hit the portal and juco route hard  1 or 2 yrs, note the initial incoming class are not their recruits.

Good luck

@adbono @CollegebaseballInsights

Awesome and informative posts. Great advice.

FWIW, there is no NLI as we type. However, the agreement going forward does allow for the athlete to finish the year if dropped from the program as per the original signing document.

College baseball has changed dramatically since the portal. The portal opened opportunities for coaches to be able to play against higher ranked programs to boost their RPI without waiting for freshman to grow up. Doing  well in a few fall games is completely different than going up against a team with older transfers.

I hear that (less freshman) has a lot to do with it since the roster may or may not be 34 limit next year.

@Mechanized commented on the ripple effect. My 2023 is a smaller player but all conference/all state and actually aimed lower to make "sure" he would get on the field. But this year they brought in a drop down transfer and a freshman who was recruited D1 but was smart enough to see what was happening so also aimed lower to make sure he would see the field. The latter hit .450 in the fall. So my kid will probably be a backup. You can do all research you want and feel like you are making good decisions but it is a crapshoot.

There's a difference between kids comes in mid year and kids getting cut in the fall. Like others I completely understand year to year. My post-grad son literally didn't enroll in his current school until the school year had already started. Based on the fall he's taking someone's innings come the spring.

One thing to realize is that the majority of the 300+ D1 programs are not cutting kids in the fall. My kids are on the lower side of D!, and in 5 years none of their teams, and other teams I know in their conferences have cut kids in the fall.

Maybe once baseball moves to the FBS/FCS model with the P4s pulling away this will less common ;-).

I'm so sorry about your son, mechanized. And I appreciate your posting this, clearly this is widespread this year.

I agree with do your homework and adjust your expectations.  Except, in mechanized's case, I'd note (a) I've seen many D1 rosters where the number of transfers went from 10 in 2022, to 15 in 2023, to 25 in 2024.  Whatever happened in the past is not happening now.

And, re expections, if my son was offered a large athletic scholarship with an NLI, I'd take that as the evidence that he was in the right place.

I do have one question, though. If he had an NLI and an athletic scholarship, and he stayed and was redshirted, then he would have to have been on the roster, right? I mean, the coach might not ever put him in a game, but your son (or his scholarship) would be taking up a roster spot.

So what we see here is the practice (not new) of telling a player that he's not ever going to play there, and might as well transfer. That way the kid is demoralized and leaves, and the coach gets his scholarship to give to someone else.

I don't see what kind of rule can stop that, unfortunately, if the player "voluntarily" decides to leave.

@adbono posted:

  I am against over-recruiting as much as anyone and have posted on that subject many times - always as a player’s advocate. Part of the work I do in baseball is advising the HS players that I coach/train as they go thru the recruiting process. I advise their parents as well. Over the past 10 years I have helped more than 30 players get placed in college baseball programs - including 2 of my sons. I understand the dysfunction of the recruiting process from the perspective of players and families as well as anyone.

   I am also in my 8th year of coaching at the Junior College level. During that time I have coached in NJCAA Regions 5 and 2. In all 8 of those years I have been involved in recruiting really good players  - mostly in Texas and Oklahoma. So I also understand the process from the perspective of the schools and, let me assure you, there is dysfunction on the side of the players and parents too. IMO most of the problems on this side are a result of receiving bad advice and/or not understanding how the process works. The bad advice can come from a HS coach, a private instructor, a friend, a scouting service, social media, etc. There are no limits on where bad information comes from but the result is usually the same. The player and parents overvalue their worth and develop unrealistic expectations.

Players have been cut from (or told to leave) programs for decades. The reasons include poor performance, injury, poor grades, bad attitude, etc. There have always been conditions associated with being on a college baseball roster. Players and parents don’t seem to understand this as well as they used to. There have never been any guarantees associated with college baseball and the more competitive the program the bigger the risk. The way to mitigate the risk is by making good decisions. I’m willing to bet that almost every freshman cut from a D1 program passed on an offer from what they perceived to be a lesser program. Almost every player I know of accepts a lesser offer from a P4 over a big offer from a mid-major. Or they take a lesser offer from a D1 mid-major over a big offer from a D2. My contention is that in most cases these are bad decisions. The marketplace tells the player where he belongs and the player/parent decides to defy what the market says ( in conditions that clearly put the player in a severe disadvantage) and decides to “bet on himself” - then cries foul when it doesn’t work out. When people talk about doing your homework, understanding market conditions is part of that. For the past 5 years market conditions have featured a gross over supply of players, which puts the players at an unfair disadvantage. These market conditions would dictate a different, more risk averse, strategy than before Covid and related changes. But have players/parents adjusted their strategies based on what has happened?!? IMO, no. They have not. If anything I hear more of the “D1 or bust” mentality than ever before.

  Market conditions in college baseball have become very difficult over the past few years. But players and parents have (for the most part) not adjusted. These are my observations. Make of them what you will.

I appreciate your prospective. However there seems to be a common theme on this board of people thinking that players and parents not understanding the recruitment process or parents over valuing their kids. This is most often NOT TRUE.
I can’t speak for anyone other than my son and our experience.  My son had 4 D1 mid-major offers. We went with the school that was a right fit academically and where he was WANTED athletically. And he was given a respectable athletic scholarship. Again he had a respectable Fall with good numbers.
Why would we make a decision to go D2 or Juco ? The sad truth is the rules of recruiting are changing so rapidly that parents and players are getting the rug pulled out from under them. We made our decision before any mention of 34 man rosters. How can you “adjust your strategies”  like you suggest if the rules of the recruiting game are changed mid year?? You can’t.
That’s why I say something needs to be done that holds HC’s accountable for their decisions on recruiting. There should be no changes allowed once school starts in the Fall. Period. Its funny how when you go to these D1 schools and look at the words they all have posted on the walls of their locker rooms. Words they want the players to “ buy into” like Loyalty, honor , commitment, all in , integrity and blue collar. All those words seem to be for the players to buy into but  the coaches are never held to the same standard . It’s not even close.

@anotherparent posted:

I'm so sorry about your son, mechanized. And I appreciate your posting this, clearly this is widespread this year.

I agree with do your homework and adjust your expectations.  Except, in mechanized's case, I'd note (a) I've seen many D1 rosters where the number of transfers went from 10 in 2022, to 15 in 2023, to 25 in 2024.  Whatever happened in the past is not happening now.

And, re expections, if my son was offered a large athletic scholarship with an NLI, I'd take that as the evidence that he was in the right place.

I do have one question, though. If he had an NLI and an athletic scholarship, and he stayed and was redshirted, then he would have to have been on the roster, right? I mean, the coach might not ever put him in a game, but your son (or his scholarship) would be taking up a roster spot.

So what we see here is the practice (not new) of telling a player that he's not ever going to play there, and might as well transfer. That way the kid is demoralized and leaves, and the coach gets his scholarship to give to someone else.

I don't see what kind of rule can stop that, unfortunately, if the player "voluntarily" decides to leave.

You’re exactly right. These coaches are telling kids they will red shirt but will not play. But adding to the nonsense is they are doing it more this year to trim their rosters in preparation for the 34 man mandate next season knowing SEC and ACC kids will be knocking on the door of Mid- Majors next year.
Again I get that these HC’s want the best team they can put on the field. But when you change the recruiting rules in the middle of the game it’s not right . JMO

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

@Mechanized commented on the ripple effect. My 2023 is a smaller player but all conference/all state and actually aimed lower to make "sure" he would get on the field. But this year they brought in a drop down transfer and a freshman who was recruited D1 but was smart enough to see what was happening so also aimed lower to make sure he would see the field. The latter hit .450 in the fall. So my kid will probably be a backup. You can do all research you want and feel like you are making good decisions but it is a crapshoot.

@dadbelly2023  it was always a crapshoot. many newbies just didn't understand the odds or unfortunately many have no information to understand.

Nothing is guaranteed.

Remember the numbers:

2023 - nfhs reported No. of  HS Players (480k),  assume 20% are seniors  (96k), now lets take 15% (high) would like to play college  (~10k - 12k annually)

In 2024, there were 1700 (305 D1) college baseball programs  roughly ~65k players Total

d1 - ~12k players, with ~2,700 classified as freshman

Note, this does not include international (Canada, Puerto Rico, Dom, etc) or Post Grad.

As a student athlete and family of said SA, you make the most informed decision based on the information that you have and be ready to pivot. Either by considering other baseball opportunities or focus on the most important aspect of college, getting a degree for job opportunities.

@nycdad posted:

There's a difference between kids comes in mid year and kids getting cut in the fall. Like others I completely understand year to year. My post-grad son literally didn't enroll in his current school until the school year had already started. Based on the fall he's taking someone's innings come the spring.

One thing to realize is that the majority of the 300+ D1 programs are not cutting kids in the fall. My kids are on the lower side of D!, and in 5 years none of their teams, and other teams I know in their conferences have cut kids in the fall.

Maybe once baseball moves to the FBS/FCS model with the P4s pulling away this will less common ;-).

@nycdad -  Would it be safe to assume the previous cutoff was 40 players.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@nycdad -  Would it be safe to assume the previous cutoff was 40 players.

Yes all the schools had 40 spots, and there were fall cuts when there were 40 spots as well.

@Mechanized posted:

You’re exactly right. These coaches are telling kids they will red shirt but will not play. But adding to the nonsense is they are doing it more this year to trim their rosters in preparation for the 34 man mandate next season knowing SEC and ACC kids will be knocking on the door of Mid- Majors next year.
Again I get that these HC’s want the best team they can put on the field. But when you change the recruiting rules in the middle of the game it’s not right . JMO

@Mechanized "when you change the recruiting rules in the middle of the game it’s not right" .

The timing of "Changes will always impact somebody", some positive, some negative, it all depends on which side of the decision you are on.

A perfect example is provide a extra yr of eligibility for Covid.

Quite appropriate for parents of current players to view this through their lenses. However, it is a much bigger landscape as many without current players are suggesting..

Our son played and later coached at a D3 which is in the top 10 over the past 20 years including winning the National Championship and their coach winning the Bertram award as the top coach in all of college baseball.

This Fall they are starting the season without their top 3 returning pitchers including the D3 pitcher of the year.

During the Summer all 3 were poached/transferred to D1 programs. One even posted on X that the D3 coaching staff reignited his love for baseball.

College sports is now a business. While not baseball, parents need to read about the top rated QB who committed to Michigan. Showed up recently for a game only to learn from the coaches he was no longer in their plans. They were flipping the #1 rated QB from LSU with a reported NIL agreement of $11M.

House has turned college sports into an abyss for players, parents, coaches, and  administrators. To be honest all the homework can’t overcome the vagaries created by House. This will be a constant for at least 7 months if not longer.

@Mechanized posted:

I appreciate your prospective. However there seems to be a common theme on this board of players and parents not understanding the recruitment process or parents over valuing their kids.
I can’t speak for anyone other than my son and our experience.  My son had 4 D1 mid-major offers. We went with the school that was a right fit academically and where he was WANTED athletically. And he was given a respectable athletic scholarship. Again he had a respectable Fall with good numbers.
Why would we make a decision to go D2 or Juco ? The sad truth is the rules of recruiting are changing so rapidly that parents and players are getting the rug pulled out from under them. We made our decision before any mention of 34 man rosters. How can you “adjust your strategies”  like you suggest if the rules of the recruiting game are changed mid year?? You can’t.
That’s why I say something needs to be done that holds HC’s accountable for their decisions on recruiting. There should be no changes allowed once school starts in the Fall. Period. Its funny how when you go to these D1 schools and look at the words they all have posted on the walls of their locker rooms. Words they want the players to “ buy into” like Loyalty, honor , commitment, all in , integrity and blue collar. All those words seem to be for the players to buy into but  the coaches are never held to the same standard . It’s not even close.

@Mechanized  All that I would say is use information as our guide to understanding a HC recruiting patterns. If possible review max of 3 yrs, look at player turnover by position.

If it is a new coach, look at previous jobs, he was probably a RC.

With how quickly the landscape is changing this data is meaningless.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@Mechanized  All that I would say is use information as our guide to understanding a HC recruiting patterns. If possible review max of 3 yrs, look at player turnover by position.

If it is a new coach, look at previous jobs, he was probably a RC.

I get the concept. But again. When you change the rules of the game in the middle of the game a 3 year look back is useless. And just to be clear. The coaches  aren’t 100 to blame either to an extent. They are just taking advantage off what the new guidelines let them get away with

Not baseball and, perhaps, baseball is on a smaller scale, but the impact of roster reductions is similar:

”Matt Rhule confirms that WR Malachi Coleman plans to enter the transfer portal. Due to the incoming roster limits, he expects 30-50 Nebraska players to enter the portal.

"I want them all to stay here and develop. It's just the new world we're in. It's going to be different."

@adbono posted:

  ...I’m willing to bet that almost every freshman cut from a D1 program passed on an offer from what they perceived to be a lesser program. Almost every player I know of accepts a lesser offer from a P4 over a big offer from a mid-major. Or they take a lesser offer from a D1 mid-major over a big offer from a D2. My contention is that in most cases these are bad decisions. The marketplace tells the player where he belongs and the player/parent decides to defy what the market says ( in conditions that clearly put the player in a severe disadvantage) and decides to “bet on himself” - then cries foul when it doesn’t work out. When people talk about doing your homework, understanding market conditions is part of that...

I don't have nearly the history of @adbono, but I have witnessed this one too many times. My son is a college freshman and as a family we have followed players my son's age up through players that are three years older across the entire state. It's sort of weird to do, but we did it because it was a way of educating ourselves of what to expect and be better prepared for our son's journey. One thing I learned from my observations is to be realistic and know your weaknesses. If you can observe without bias and gather as much information about an individual, then you can actually be quite good about predicting how their college experience will go for them.

For example, we know a player that had several options to choose from. Almost all were D2/D3 with one D1, but there was no money involved with the D1. He opted for a D2, but everyone in my family thought he wouldn't last more than one semester at the school he decided upon. What had we observed to make this prediction? He was sometimes late to practice; he didn't workout on his own outside of practice; he always got what he wanted without having to earn anything; he had never sat the bench; he couldn't hit an off-speed pitch that was faster than 80 (not sure why other HS teams never figured that out and kept pitching him fast balls). We knew the school he chose would require him to work and improve if he wanted to see playing time in the fall. This kid would talk about how much he loved baseball and I do think he did enjoy the game, but observation told me what he really loved was the thrill of the attention and of how his parents/peers rewarded him for being better than his peers. College was the first time he would be on a team with a roster full of players that were on par or better than him. He has decided to quit baseball and attend a school closer to home and not play baseball.

Parent's please do your kid a favor and make sure he/she has had to perservere through challenges and aren't playing baseball to please you. What sort of challenges? Dealing with the setbacks of an injury (I don't wish an injury on anyone, but there are so many lessons one can learn from one). Learning to work one's way off the bench and onto the field. Learning to deal with a coach that may not like you or favors other players. Learning to juggle baseball, school, and life. Learning that sometimes life isn't fair. Learning to lose. As parents I know we want to provide our children with the best and sometimes that best is having to sit back and let them grow. You can't experience true joy without sorrow.

I'm not a perfect parent and I will say I'm not a very outward loving or nuturing parent, but every single one of those challenges I listed above are things my son had to work through and will probably have to work through again. (I'm that parent that doesn't lose on purpose when competing against my child. They want to beat me in a race or a game, they need to do it for real). It was much easier sending my son a great distance away to school knowing I sent him off ready to face the brutal world of college baseball.

A player may choose the wrong school, even having done all the research and asked all the right questions; but if he's prepared for the challenges, being cut from a program is just another opportunity to grow.

At this point a number of 2025s are taking just about anything they can get, if they want to keep the dream alive.

I personally know of 5 2025s that were committed that were told, sorry we are not going to have a place for you now, due to NCAA the changes.

I saw a Mid-D1 head coach tell a the whole group of players at a showcase/camp that they will not be bringing in any freshmen from the 2025 class and don't see the need to bring in any freshmen for the foreseeable future. There was no need to bring in freshmen, when they can pull in proven JUCOs and portal players. At least he was kind of honest. Just wish he would of said that before giving out direct personal invites to the camp.

Son still hopes to find a fit for baseball, but has already started plan B. He has been academically accepted into 8 schools (some with good academic money), so he has some options.

As I heard a smart person say at a camp (that person is also on this forum), if you are a 2025 that has a decent offer, you should not be waiting to see if something better is going to come along right now.

Infielddad:

What is your opinion on re-instituting "Freshman" baseball teams.

In the old days, this was an opportunity for a young player to develop knowledge of the game, the school and the baseball program.

The "improvement" of a player's reflex actions is critical to his success.

This was the 5% rule -"Freshman Baseball".

Bob

Former Freshman Coach @ MSU

My son played college ball before COVID and the portal. I’ve been on this board since he was fourteen. Every year before COVID and the portal there were just as many posts about the college a poster’s son chose not working out.

The world hasn’t changed. Only the “gotcha” (portal) has changed. When my son played colleges allegedly cared about academics. Transferring required sitting out a year unless moving down or JuCo.

Now the fastest way to pump up a program is with men from the portal over boys coming out of high school. My son was 6’1” 175 when he graduated from high school. After a year of college he was 6’2” 195 with college playing experience and hitting .300. Is it hard to chose which player a coach wants?

College sports are a business. Unless a kid is a stud coming out of high school he’s at a huge disadvantage. The college coaches are experienced recruiters. A lot of players and their parents are blindly playing pin the tail on the donkey.

@Mechanized posted:

I get the concept. But again. When you change the rules of the game in the middle of the game a 3 year look back is useless. And just to be clear. The coaches  aren’t 100 to blame either to an extent. They are just taking advantage off what the new guidelines let them get away with

@Mechanized What is your definition of changing the rules of the game in the middle?

As for a 3 yr look back it depends on the school, as for not all schools have drastically changed post covid.

When you say 3 yr look back is useless, is it based on your research efforts or something else?

note, 3 yr look back is only for schools that have coaches more than 3 yrs, otherwise you would look at the new hires, and 1 yr  tenure with a different perspective.

As mentioned, nothing different than a lot of our sons have been there and done that. If your athlete didn't make the spring roster, you either went JUCO, D2 or sat out a year at that D1 program or another D1.

When son was coaching at a D2 in Florida, years ago, many of the players were drop downs from the major D1 programs here in Florida.

@TPM posted:

As mentioned, nothing different than a lot of our sons have been there and done that. If your athlete didn't make the spring roster, you either went JUCO, D2 or sat out a year at that D1 program or another D1.

When son was coaching at a D2 in Florida, years ago, many of the players were drop downs from the major D1 programs here in Florida.

Several years ago there was a regular poster whose sun played at Tampa. When (then) looking at their roster about 75% of the team were ACC and SEC transfers. That conference is as good as a lot of D1 mid majors.

There is a difference between getting cut in the fall, and after a full season. I *think* what parents with kids in college in this thread or about to enter college have an issue with is getting cut in the fall.

While there are certain tenets that remain and always will, as others have pointed out the world of college baseball has absolutely changed and continues to. That said you have to move on and adjust to the new normal.