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for those who seemed to be confused.

A mlb scout asks a players" So what round do you think you will be drafted.

Player : so and so round

he gets that info from where, ya parents, other fans, Publications, a weegee board,an agent, magic 8 ball or mlb scouts

? how does the players determine what round he thinks he will be drafted
Last edited by Dibble
? how does the players determine what round he thinks he will be drafted

The real information that the scout is trying to find out is at what point would you no longer sign. They want to know what the cut off round is that you no longer would consider being a professional ballplayer.

You have to determine that for yourself. Many people feel that if they say,"I will sign in the top 10 rounds", that their stock will drop, or a team will wait and try to get you later. Not true. If a team wants you they will take you if you fall in that slot on their board. There may be exceptions.

I have always contended that many people don't get drafted because they have unrealistic round/money demands. Many parents do that on purpose to discourage scouts unless they are top picks. It is a personal choice. I personally feel that you cannot negotiate if not drafted and would not make too tough of demands. You can always say no if the negotiations do not go well.

It is impossible to determine what round you will be drafted in unless you are a top 1 or 2 round guy. Then they will tell you.

The publications are a joke and are simply guessing. The local scout has no clue because the scouting director and crosscheckers make the decisions. The easiest you can do is come up with a range or rounds based on all the factors. Those being scouts, agents, and pubs. Comparison to other players that you have played against and the hype surrounding some of them will also help.
Last edited by Bighit15

Drivels question was -- How do you determine what round you will be drafted ?

What you are talking about is not the same-- you have not determined when you tell the scout what round you think you should go in-- you are throwing bread on the water--for negotiation purposes

I agree with what you say-- each player/family does what they think is best for them
Economics. As a family, we wanted to make sure that our son could live for a period of time without having to worry where his rent payment or meal money was coming from. We knew there would be good times, but were realistic that there would also be "bad" times. We were fortunate in that our son had choices with a wonderful college scholarship lined up.
We set a bottom $$ figure that would meet his modest monetary needs for a period of years. (In essence, this determined the round, i.e. slot money.)We told the scouts that this was the bottom line and held to it. Now regarding rounds, prior and during the draft, I received a few calls from teams asking if my son would consider being drafted in "X" round. I said the round didn't matter, but the $$ did. That cleared the air quickly. Again, my son's other option, if not drafted, was to go to a wonderful school, so he was in a win win position.
Families really need to look at the financial committment of minor league life. Most players don't make enough to cover their expenses adding additional financial pressures other than their game performance. I admire every one in the system and the sacrifices they make daily to try to achieve their dream. In addition, I admire the family support most of these players have to keep them going. Good luck to all this June.
Last edited by NVR1
Bighit said it very well.

MLB scouts want to know if we draft you in this round will you sign for X amount of dollars.after which round you will not sign

have seen many parents and even more agents in never never land about where they think they will go in the draft.

good example, saw a player with a mlb scout, asked where you think you will go in the draft.
Dad replied my
agent told me top ten rounds.

Asked how many mlb scouts have seen you:
answer 6
how many came back a 2nd time:
answer : none

Any cross checkers in to see you:
answer none

Dad was shocked to hear his chances of being drafted : was DNF at best and that was pushing it.

He was drafted in
the 48rd signed after
a year in juco, and released less than one year after signing
Drivels question was -- How do you determine what round you will be drafted ?

TR, Eric's response to that particular question was always, "That is not up to me, that is up to you guys. I have no contol over that. All I can do is play my best to help my team."

That particular question should never be answered. IMO

When pressed, (and they always press) Eric would say that, "some scouts have said rounds 3 or later."
That's essentially how I would think I'd do it with my kid if it ever got to that.

Let's say he needs $20K supplemental income each year to be unconcerned about finances while playing minor league ball.

That's the equivalent of, roughly, a pre-tax signing bonus of $600K? (assuming you take the after tax proceeds and stick it in a fixed income asset yeilding 5%)

$600K is fifth round or higher or so? (I've never looked into the average $$ for each round, that is just a guess.)

The upshot is my kid would have to be an awfully high pick before I'd recommend he not go to college.

Full ride to college is a pretty good downside!
Rob Kremer,

That is an interesting intrepretation of your sons needs. That illustates why each person needs to make their own decisions. Based on your figures, you need not just 20k per year. You need 20k per year in interest and the original money still in the bank.

I am not knocking it. Just a couple of points. Six hundred thousand would be mid-second round or higher. MLB has a scholarship program that pays for college. I have yet to see a college pay an 100k or 200k signing bonus. With mlb you get that and college. Also, you do get paid for playing mlb. Admittedly, it is very little in the beginning. Ranging from 850 a month for your first year to 2300 a month for AAA 6 or 7 months a year.

I personally have never understood the "must be set for life or go to school" mentality. Especially when you can play the game and go to school if you choose. If one signs for even 125k and manages their money, they can still earn about 15k per year (before minor league pay) and still have money left at the end of a five year "tryout" I have yet to see a school that guarentees a set for life policy and the promise of pro ball later. jmo

Not getting into the the argument that is bound to be made that many do not go back vs. older students are better students. Or the argument of missing the college experience vs. concentrating fulltime on baseball. Everyone has a different point of view.

I read NVR's post as saying that he was concerned that his son have the finances to play ball and not struggle. I don't think that he was advocating being set for life. Correct me if I am wrong. It would be great to have the scenario that you described and I certainly would not turn it down.

When my son was a tenth grader I thought that it would take buco bucks (500k) or more to sign. Well when it came down to it, he chose to do it for considerably less money against my wishes. He had a burning desire and a 94 mph fb, so he chose to go and has never regretted it. He is happy and growing as a man. I am very pleased.
You're a better money manager than I am if you plan on getting a return of 15K a year off 125K after taxes. I'd be inclined to ask them to pay over several years to minimize the tax impacts while they are likely to not be making much of an income in the minors.

Other than that I tend to agree. Maturity and the player's goals should be more of a factor in making the decision than $. Some players are more likely to succeed in baseball if they go out of HS, some are more likely if they go to college. If the goal is to play major league baseball then the path most likely to get a player to the big leagues is the criteria to use.
The money question is always a personal one. A scout shared his experience which is that they get such a wide variety of reactions to $'s and it comes down to where the prospects is from, cost of living in the area and their personal life style. A $200,000 signing bonus he said is looked at so differently by a family living in a major city in CA or NY as an example than it does by a family living in say OK/MO. Same dollars, just different perspective on its value. I think it really comes down to how badly the player wants MLB as a career and whether they are mature enough NOW, out of HS, for this career or not.

I agree with NVR1, you need a plan for the minor league lifestyle. How will the player manage on the pay provided to them during the season. What sources will they have to supplement their income if needed, either by a signing bonus, family support or can they fit in a job in the off season while they condition. Its a personal decision. For me, out side of the very top players, if it takes "set for life money" than I would wonder about how badly the prospect really wants a career in major league baseball. But then, that's why the decision is so personal, with no one answer for everyone.
Last edited by RHP05Parent
Hey Big, we both have the same feelings about this decision and while both son's were making this decision we talked on numerous occasions. This wasn't our decision to make, we as parents provided our inputs to our son but this was his decision. We as parents wanted our son to get his Education and this is why we fought so hard for the amount of MLB scholarship monies included in his bonus. Our son after rookie ball came home and took some classes at a local community college and during his next offseason will enroll again. He knew how much we wanted him to get his Degree and we feel he will accomplish this on his terms. As for his signing bonus he has only purchased a vehicle and the rest has been invested wisely by a relative who works for a New York firm. This investment has already made money for him and should continue for years to come. Presently I will say he is at Low A and only expense he presently has is his rent and is able to save a good portion of his salary. I will say though that as parents we are helping him out which we would've done had he gone to school. I can only say that this decision has to be made that your son is ready for the tough life of living on the road and being on his own. He has been in Low A for the past 2 months and wife and I have been out to visit him and just the smile on his face tells you that he made the correct decision and we as his parents support this and are happy he has. I wish all of you the best with this decision and good luck......
as much as i would love to express an opinion on this, i feel it would benefit me more to stay silent. however i will leave everyone with something NOT to say.

Scout: "what round and how much will you sign for"

Dumb Player: " i wanna go first round and get Bill Gates money, and i want to own the team"

^^^ Sadly there are people that might try that one this year. ha.

there are players who already said such brilliant stuff like that already.

Real simple: I want to turn pro, top ten rounds.
To be honest unless you get top ten round money not worth your while to bypass college, Unless you cant spell SAT and college is not an option.

One brilliant player when asked what was his cutoff to be drafted he would sign , told the scout, hey talk to my agent
You're right AHS17, since I'm not a draft prospect, it's easier to express a general opinion on the subject. Smile I just think life should be lived to its fullest and people should follow their desires ... but only IF they have a realistic view of the offers at hand, a clear understanding of the trade-offs - what you gain and what you're give up, and how prepared the player really is for either choice, MLB or college. This is no different than the recruiting we talk about or life in general. Do your homework, make a choice, then don't look back and work hard to make the most of your decision. And always remember, its pretty darn cool to even have this problem! Cool
Having been involved in many ways with many drafts... The only thing I can tell people for certain about the draft... is there is nothing for certain about the draft!

Only a very few will know anything before draft day. Each year there are many surprises. For most people these are not "happy" surprises!

Most all parents and players have no experience with the draft. That is unless they've had someone else in their family go through it. And even then every situation is different. Except for maybe the Upton's. Many people rely on their advisors to help them through.

Every year, when it's all said and done, some people change agents (that happens a lot), some change their mind about going college or going pro, offers are made that don't make any sense (both ways).

It's amazing how many people think, and agents claim, their player is going in the first two rounds. I'd guess there's as many as 500 players each year who have been told they will be drafted in the first couple rounds. For a few of them this will become a reality. And then there's the others who are left to adjust to what has happened.

I think a person is best off listening closely to the parents who have been full circle through the draft. But you'd have to listen to a lot of them and still be lucky to have the same situation as yours.

For some people signing a professional contract is "strictly" a money deal. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but I would prefer the player who wants to go out and play over the guy who is most interested in just being wealthy.

In fact, I'd rather sign 50 (hungry) players at $50,000 each than one who won't play for less than 2.5 million. Same amount of money and I'd like my chances of ending up with much more. Maybe even one or two of these $50,000 players will end up being better than the (not so hungry) $2.5 million player. I'll go so far as to say I think it's very likely!

I do have a lot of respect for those who choose the college route first. But to me the main question should be... Do I want to go to college... or do I want to sign. I know it's not that easy and there's money involved, but to me that is the big basic question. Then you take it from there. There is no wrong answer.
PG - Thats a really great post and one that anyone draft eligible should read. I think you know more about this than anyone I know.

There is one aspect of your post that I'd like to give a slightly different slant too though.

I know you didn't mean to imply this, but it is not always the case that a player who asks for a lot of money is one who is not hungry. It might be that the player has other short-term goals. We both know one (the same one) in precisely that situation a few years ago. Now he finds himself in a somewhat similar situation this year and I'll bet he'd sign for whatever they'd pay him. Why the change? Because he finished what he wanted to do FIRST. We both respect him for that...actually I even admire him for that...probably you do too.

As you know, last year our son went through the draft. Some teams asked him "how much?" He gave a very big number. It didn't reflect his lack of desire to play nor an irrational view of his worth. He was actually quite realistic about his worth. It reflected his view of what it would take for him to just consider bypassing something that had been a dream of his all his life. It really was an easy decision in the end. Fulfill a dream that had been there since he could remember. I also admire him, very much, for that decision. Life isn't all about money and I think he said that loud-and-clear. He isn't looking back at all to my knowledge, despite an up-and-down freshman year. In 2 or 3 years if he is lucky enough to be drafted again, I can say almost for certain that money will not be an issue because playing beyond his current level is the NEXT dream of his life.

I certainly know that others have a different viewpoint and I FULLY respect it. There is no one who can possibly understand why anyone makes their decision unless they walk in their shoes. Maybe sometimes its about money, maybe even most of the time? But there are those for whom the money is nothing more than a side issue.

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