There is little if any doubt I am going to be right and the economic impacts IMO are going to cause much loss of life as well. You think it is random that rich people are doing better surviving this storm better then poor?
We need to embrace a new normal now, we need to start reopening immediately where we can, we need to modify how we operate daily so we can reopen, we need to have a way to get business and schools running 100% ASAP and sadly there are going to some people who don't make it.
I do find it amusing, I have read so many posts here telling each other how tough college baseball it and pro even tougher, don't waste time crying get better, life isn't fair work harder...and now you want to stop the world for a less then 1% of the population.
Again in baseball terms you want to change the program of the best organization in the world for less then 1 player on the 35man roster. Think about it folks, take the drama out of your minds, put on your big boy pants and think about it.
Last post on this particular subtopic for me, so have the last word if you want:
You don't know if 1% is the right figure or not. But if it is, that's ~3.3 million people in the US alone. If the options were 3.3M dead versus complete economic destruction, that would be one thing. But that's not the case (and I think you know it). The reality is going to be something much murkier on both sides of the ledger.
"We need to have a way to get business and schools running 100% ASAP"? Sure, and I need a way to play 3B for the Yankees. Oh, and I'd like a unicorn who poops gold coins, too. What does your statement even mean, other than as a complaint that you wish things were different? We all want that. Yeah, I want my governor to make everything normal again. I'm confident he wants that, too, and is trying to make it happen.
You write "we need to start reopening immediately where we can." The words "where we can" are doing ALL the work in that sentence. I agree with you--but the question, of course, is when and where we "can." That's going to involve some educated guesswork, at best, at some agonizingly difficult tradeoffs. I honestly am stunned that you are so confident you have the answers when the CDC, NIH, pharma companies and med schools across the globe, and every state, local and national government in the world does not.
Edit: My math was wrong again. 1% of 330M is 3.3 million. This is why I'm not an engineer.