It is Past Time to Face Reality

Goosegg posted:

I'm all in on this proposal!

Where is the "how" part?

Agree... the general "what and when" seems to make sense.  There is not an ounce of "how" or any verified details on how close we are to actually being ready to fulfill the gating requirements to even enter Phase 1.

i.e. - robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing, ability to protect the health and safety of workers in critical industries, ability to protect the health and safety of those living and working in high-risk facilities, protect employees and users of mass transit, etc.

Am I to understand that this is basically stating... "here ya go, states... figure out all this crap on your own and in a hurry and then, we'll suggest you begin phase 1". ??  Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

A genuinely crappy post from Old School.  Come to NY State or the Northeast and see how you feel about any of these statements.  At this point, it's impossible not to know someone directly or a friend of a friend who has passed due to COVID.  Perhaps it will spare the rest of country, I pray it does.  But the one thing I can say definitely is that it shouldn't leave the impression that the measures take have been an overreaction.  That's both wholly uniformed and remarkably calloused.  

cabbagedad posted:

Goosegg posted:

I'm all in on this proposal!

Where is the "how" part?

Agree... the general "what and when" seems to make sense.  There is not an ounce of "how" or any verified details on how close we are to actually being ready to fulfill the gating requirements to even enter Phase 1.

i.e. - robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing, ability to protect the health and safety of workers in critical industries, ability to protect the health and safety of those living and working in high-risk facilities, protect employees and users of mass transit, etc.

Am I to understand that this is basically stating... "here ya go, states... figure out all this crap on your own and in a hurry and then, we'll suggest you begin phase 1". ??  Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

Did you watch the presser? It will be a joint effort where the states will say when they think they are ready for a phase and the feds will either agree or disagree. Some are ready for tomorrow, some won’t be ready for a month or more

My primary job is crisis management, I could argue 90% of the time I am vastly over paid and unneeded, until there is a crisis and then the entire company comes to me. Not a boast just a statement of what I do.

when there is a crisis the worst thing you can do is panic, the next is go off half cocked....we did both at many levels, that is just a fact. Just because there are countless people who do this and feel good about it for whatever their shortsighted reasons might be...doesn’t help the situation.

history is going to show that the depth of this fiasco was avoidable and your grand kids and lower are going to pay the bill for it, that is a travesty.

if facts make me callous so be it. I live in the northeast, I know people who have died from this virus and I know the devastation it has wrecked...none of the facts change on how we have magnified it.

“when there is a crisis the worst thing you can do is panic, the next is go off half cocked....we did both at many levels, that is just a fact”

These generalities are opinions. They are your “opinions.” They are not facts! Someone with recognized experience in “crisis management “ should know the difference I would think. Trying to sell opinions as “facts” seems so inappropriate. Assuming you know you are posting “opinions “ and intentionally confusing them as “facts” is completely inappropriate.

cabbagedad posted:

Goosegg posted:

I'm all in on this proposal!

Where is the "how" part?

Agree... the general "what and when" seems to make sense.  There is not an ounce of "how" or any verified details on how close we are to actually being ready to fulfill the gating requirements to even enter Phase 1.

i.e. - robust testing program in place for at-risk healthcare workers, including emerging antibody testing, ability to protect the health and safety of workers in critical industries, ability to protect the health and safety of those living and working in high-risk facilities, protect employees and users of mass transit, etc.

Am I to understand that this is basically stating... "here ya go, states... figure out all this crap on your own and in a hurry and then, we'll suggest you begin phase 1". ??  Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

Typical play from Bone-spur Bonehead. 

old_school posted:

My primary job is crisis management, I could argue 90% of the time I am vastly over paid and unneeded, until there is a crisis and then the entire company comes to me. Not a boast just a statement of what I do.

when there is a crisis the worst thing you can do is panic, the next is go off half cocked....we did both at many levels, that is just a fact. Just because there are countless people who do this and feel good about it for whatever their shortsighted reasons might be...doesn’t help the situation.

history is going to show that the depth of this fiasco was avoidable and your grand kids and lower are going to pay the bill for it, that is a travesty.

if facts make me callous so be it. I live in the northeast, I know people who have died from this virus and I know the devastation it has wrecked...none of the facts change on how we have magnified it.

We overreacted based on what?  You experience as a crisis manager dealing with prior global pandemics?  (The last one was in 1918, so you would be very old school.)  Based on what you have learned as a virologist who has access to data the rest of the world has not yet seen?  Because of your ability to see the future? 

You may turn out to be right.  But if so, it won't be because of anything you actually know at this point.  To claim otherwise would be the height of arrogance.

Yep, the economic impacts (and other impacts) are terrible.  No question.  A few hundred thousand or more additional deaths would have been pretty damn terrible, too--and you (and I) have no idea yet whether they would have happened (or still will happen).  In my humble opinion, anyone who claims on April 16, 2020 to be able to stand astride history and assess whether the world made the right decisions is kidding themselves.  Yeah, I have opinions about these matters, too--plenty of them. But I recognize that my opinion and $1.92 will get me a cup of coffee at Starbucks--or would, if all the ones near me weren't closed due to the virus.  

If nothing else, what we've done is a good dry run for how to deal with a real biological attack on our country.  It's the only way I can make sense of the extent to which we've reacted to this.

All I can say is let’s hope the posts 2 months from now are about baseball.

Smitty28 posted:

If nothing else, what we've done is a good dry run for how to deal with a real biological attack on our country.  It's the only way I can make sense of the extent to which we've reacted to this.

I was thinking .... A country like China could prepare a virus and the antidote for its own people. Then let the virus loose on the world destroying every country but their own.

Yes, China’s economy is affected by the rest of the world. But they would be the last man standing.

Theres a biotech company in San Francisco attempting to develop an overall vaccine to any virus. It’s past the initial research stage. The Gates Foundation gave them 1.9M to continue. They’re on track for a 2025 release.

There could always be a new strain. But the hope is this vaccine could prevent any known virus in one shot and slow any new virus. 

RJM posted:

Smitty28 posted:

If nothing else, what we've done is a good dry run for how to deal with a real biological attack on our country.  It's the only way I can make sense of the extent to which we've reacted to this.

I was thinking .... A country like China could prepare a virus and the antidote for its own people. Then let the virus loose on the world destroying every country but their own.

Yes, China’s economy is affected by the rest of the world. But they would be the last man standing.

I don't doubt China created this virus.  It got out and thankfully it's not terribly deadly.  If a deadlier version got out there would be real trouble.  It's not good to see how close China is to Iran.  Our government has worried about this scenario since 9/11.

Smitty28 posted:

RJM posted:

Smitty28 posted:

If nothing else, what we've done is a good dry run for how to deal with a real biological attack on our country.  It's the only way I can make sense of the extent to which we've reacted to this.

I was thinking .... A country like China could prepare a virus and the antidote for its own people. Then let the virus loose on the world destroying every country but their own.

Yes, China’s economy is affected by the rest of the world. But they would be the last man standing.

I don't doubt China created this virus.  It got out and thankfully it's not terribly deadly.  If a deadlier version got out there would be real trouble.  It's not good to see how close China is to Iran.  Our government has worried about this scenario since 9/1

I don’t believe China created this virus. It’s turning out it may be a research lab accident China covered up. 

But it’s very possible some day some country or terrorist organization attempts what I previously suggested.

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

Is that the same guy who said on April 2nd he didn't have enough ventilators to last six days? And that the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators needed to fight COVID-19?

You are only thinking about people that are being hospitalized. 

There are many that don't go to the hospital as for they are told you don't want to be stuck in the ER.

Point 1 - friend works for Verizon, thought he might have it.  did self quarantine with help of daughters. It took to 10 days to get results (confirmed).

Lost appetite, no taste for food, felt tired and out of breath, mind tricks. Called FDNY-EMS, they told him you don't want to go to ER, provided him with spot test, 94% lung capacity.

Point 2 - just heard, another friend, very healthy, they had to break down her door.  Was in hospital for 3 day on ventilator, lost 13 pounds.

Having the ventilators were about being prepared.

Again, East Elmhurst, Teaneck were hotspots.

 

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-nyc

Huh? I think you missed my point! You said Gov Cuomo "makes decisions based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive." You then point out he is now sending about 150 ventilators to others places that may need them.

I was just poking fun of this because on April 2nd he stated he didn't have enough ventilators and essentially stated the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators. I would say that he was not only being critical but also redirecting blame for NY's unpreparedness. 

But now's he's giving ventilators away. So I guess he did have enough. Or got them from somewhere else.

I was just making light of contradictions that have been made during serious times.

You do understand that the April 2 statement was based on project model.

Note, there weren't enough test results, so you provide an estimate based on the variables that you have.

This is call prescriptive analytics based on social behaviors at that point in time,  the objective was to bend the curve with social distancing.

Note,  many stayed in their houses, including my family members,  note some friends were infected between 3/22 and 3/30, self quarantined, thus didn't  have to be hospitalized.

Some have were hospitalized after 4/3, with some passing away.

Here are some other points that you miss, the hotspots that are were not reported were the Long-Term Care Facilities, just look at what New Jersey

https://www.npr.org/sections/c...e-as-loved-ones-died

Thus it is not a contradiction.

Chico Escuela posted:

old_school posted:

My primary job is crisis management, I could argue 90% of the time I am vastly over paid and unneeded, until there is a crisis and then the entire company comes to me. Not a boast just a statement of what I do.

when there is a crisis the worst thing you can do is panic, the next is go off half cocked....we did both at many levels, that is just a fact. Just because there are countless people who do this and feel good about it for whatever their shortsighted reasons might be...doesn’t help the situation.

history is going to show that the depth of this fiasco was avoidable and your grand kids and lower are going to pay the bill for it, that is a travesty.

if facts make me callous so be it. I live in the northeast, I know people who have died from this virus and I know the devastation it has wrecked...none of the facts change on how we have magnified it.

We overreacted based on what?  You experience as a crisis manager dealing with prior global pandemics?  (The last one was in 1918, so you would be very old school.)  Based on what you have learned as a virologist who has access to data the rest of the world has not yet seen?  Because of your ability to see the future? 

You may turn out to be right.  But if so, it won't be because of anything you actually know at this point.  To claim otherwise would be the height of arrogance.

Yep, the economic impacts (and other impacts) are terrible.  No question.  A few hundred thousand or more additional deaths would have been pretty damn terrible, too--and you (and I) have no idea yet whether they would have happened (or still will happen).  In my humble opinion, anyone who claims on April 16, 2020 to be able to stand astride history and assess whether the world made the right decisions is kidding themselves.  Yeah, I have opinions about these matters, too--plenty of them. But I recognize that my opinion and $1.92 will get me a cup of coffee at Starbucks--or would, if all the ones near me weren't closed due to the virus.  

There is little if any doubt I am going to be right and the economic impacts IMO are going to cause much loss of life as well. You think it is random that rich people are doing better surviving this storm better then poor? 

We need to embrace a new normal now, we need to start reopening immediately where we can, we need to modify how we operate daily so we can reopen, we need to have a way to get business and schools running 100% ASAP and sadly there are going to some people who don't make it. 

I do find it amusing, I have read so many posts here telling each other how tough college baseball it and pro even tougher, don't waste time crying get better, life isn't fair work harder...and now you want to stop the world for a less then 1% of the population. 

Again in baseball terms you want to change the program of the best organization in the world for less then 1 player on the 35man roster. Think about it folks, take the drama out of your minds, put on your big boy pants and think about it. 

old_school posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

old_school posted:

 

 

There is little if any doubt I am going to be right and the economic impacts IMO are going to cause much loss of life as well. You think it is random that rich people are doing better surviving this storm better then poor? 

We need to embrace a new normal now, we need to start reopening immediately where we can, we need to modify how we operate daily so we can reopen, we need to have a way to get business and schools running 100% ASAP and sadly there are going to some people who don't make it. 

I do find it amusing, I have read so many posts here telling each other how tough college baseball it and pro even tougher, don't waste time crying get better, life isn't fair work harder...and now you want to stop the world for a less then 1% of the population. 

Again in baseball terms you want to change the program of the best organization in the world for less then 1 player on the 35man roster. Think about it folks, take the drama out of your minds, put on your big boy pants and think about it. 

Last post on this particular subtopic for me, so have the last word if you want:  

You don't know if 1% is the right figure or not.  But if it is, that's ~3.3 million people in the US alone.  If the options were 3.3M dead versus complete economic destruction, that would be one thing.  But that's not the case (and I think you know it).  The reality is going to be something much murkier on both sides of the ledger.

"We need to have a way to get business and schools running 100% ASAP"?  Sure, and I need a way to play 3B for the Yankees.  Oh, and I'd like a unicorn who poops gold coins, too.  What does your statement even mean, other than as a complaint that you wish things were different?  We all want that.  Yeah, I want my governor to make everything normal again.  I'm confident he wants that, too, and is trying to make it happen.  

You write "we need to start reopening immediately where we can."  The words "where we can" are doing ALL the work in that sentence.  I agree with you--but the question, of course, is when and where we "can."  That's going to involve some educated guesswork, at best, at some agonizingly difficult tradeoffs.  I honestly am stunned that you are so confident you have the answers when the CDC, NIH, pharma companies and med schools across the globe, and every state, local and national government in the world does not.      

Edit:  My math was wrong again.  1% of 330M is 3.3 million.  This is why I'm not an engineer.

I'm really tired of the phrase "big boy pants".  It is said by people who assume that they personally are at low risk of disease and so is everyone they know, or who blame people for dying if they get sick.  I'm pretty sure I haven't heard any actual doctors or nurses say it.  Yes, you have to suck it up in baseball, we do say that on here, but usually it is accompanied by "keep working, get better." The argument is that doing this will somehow make you a better person individually.  This pandemic is not about individuals, it is about caring for all members of society.

Yes, there are places that could start again now, and there are other places that can't.  People in areas that reopen had better hope that employers are wearing real big boy pants and provide masks and safety precautions to their employees.  Some of those that think they can re-open are going to be hit by the virus.  They better hope that their doctors and nurses are wearing real big boy pants and are able to look past the behavior of some of the people who show up sick.  And that they don't just "I'm taking my ball and going home."

The most important thing that the lockdown has done is to raise awareness of what this disease is.  There is hardly anyone, anywhere, who doesn't know that (a) it can kill you, and (b) what the symptoms are.  That will help when the virus comes back when things reopen. 

So you have to suck it up in baseball but not in life? I mean honestly that is what you think?

Whatever for now I am done discussing this as well, I tried to stay out but I got sucked in. Time will certainly tell and our opinions won't change things. But in life like baseball there are reasons why some teams always win and some teams always come a step short. 

old_school posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

old_school posted:

My primary job is crisis management, I could argue 90% of the time I am vastly over paid and unneeded, until there is a crisis and then the entire company comes to me. Not a boast just a statement of what I do.

when there is a crisis the worst thing you can do is panic, the next is go off half cocked....we did both at many levels, that is just a fact. Just because there are countless people who do this and feel good about it for whatever their shortsighted reasons might be...doesn’t help the situation.

history is going to show that the depth of this fiasco was avoidable and your grand kids and lower are going to pay the bill for it, that is a travesty.

if facts make me callous so be it. I live in the northeast, I know people who have died from this virus and I know the devastation it has wrecked...none of the facts change on how we have magnified it.

We overreacted based on what?  You experience as a crisis manager dealing with prior global pandemics?  (The last one was in 1918, so you would be very old school.)  Based on what you have learned as a virologist who has access to data the rest of the world has not yet seen?  Because of your ability to see the future? 

You may turn out to be right.  But if so, it won't be because of anything you actually know at this point.  To claim otherwise would be the height of arrogance.

Yep, the economic impacts (and other impacts) are terrible.  No question.  A few hundred thousand or more additional deaths would have been pretty damn terrible, too--and you (and I) have no idea yet whether they would have happened (or still will happen).  In my humble opinion, anyone who claims on April 16, 2020 to be able to stand astride history and assess whether the world made the right decisions is kidding themselves.  Yeah, I have opinions about these matters, too--plenty of them. But I recognize that my opinion and $1.92 will get me a cup of coffee at Starbucks--or would, if all the ones near me weren't closed due to the virus.  

There is little if any doubt I am going to be right and the economic impacts IMO are going to cause much loss of life as well. You think it is random that rich people are doing better surviving this storm better then poor? 

We need to embrace a new normal now, we need to start reopening immediately where we can, we need to modify how we operate daily so we can reopen, we need to have a way to get business and schools running 100% ASAP and sadly there are going to some people who don't make it. 

I do find it amusing, I have read so many posts here telling each other how tough college baseball it and pro even tougher, don't waste time crying get better, life isn't fair work harder...and now you want to stop the world for a less then 1% of the population. 

Again in baseball terms you want to change the program of the best organization in the world for less then 1 player on the 35man roster. Think about it folks, take the drama out of your minds, put on your big boy pants and think about it. 

Interesting that you are trying to compare Coronavirus vs baseball. 

Do you really think the government has a handle of the virus at multiple levels?  Without the appropriate testing protocol, scale of said test and a vaccine, the potential outbreaks in areas not equipped can a effect that many will not be able to handle. 

As for schools opening,  what schools and where should you open schools?  And for what point do you open schools?

For learning or baby sitting? 

Note, in the inner city, e.g. NYC (5 boroughs) there is normally higher cases of asthma. 

This is due to what businesses and the government have been allowed to dump in these communities.

Also, you need to look at long term care facilities a little closer, these are where the big spikes are.

I won't speak for old_school but I think what he means by wearing your big boy pants is realizing we shut the country down to flatten the curve. Not to prevent people from dying of COVID-19 for which we don't have treatments or completely understand. But to prevent deaths for things for which we do have treatments but can't because our hospital systems are overwhelmed. That's a macro solution to slow the spread, not to stop it. Moving forward we can have micro responses for hot-spots around the country. My worry is we flatlined the curve for parts of the country instead of flattening it. Meaning we are right where we started.

As a country we will always do what we can to prevent death and COVID-19 is nothing different. But try as we may death is always here like murder, automobile accidents, and the flu. Go to the CDC site and check out how many people died so far this year of H1N1pdm09 (yes, the same "swine" flu from our last big pandemic--viruses don't just go away). 

Somehow flattening the curve turned into the hyper-sensitive message of "nobody can be infected" and anyone who spreads the virus is a common criminal. There are millions of Americans working right as I type this who are still performing the same tasks in the same way as they were before the shutdown. Sure, perhaps they have some newer procedures at work; employers don't want their employees to be sick. But there are many who are not working and need to get back. But for them we have to have "special" considerations? Masks, temperature readings, antibody tests, physical spacing, etc.? Uh, there are millions working right now who aren't doing that so why should we impose that on everyone else who returns?  The curve has been (or will be) flattened so we have or will very soon achieve our macro level goal for the country. It's time to handle outbreaks in a micro fashion as we did with previous pandemics like we had in 2009-2010 when the demographic was young, healthy children.

COVID-19 is here to stay. It is not going away. The sooner we realize that the sooner we can make plans to deal with the virus in a way that doesn't hurt 100% of our citizens.

ABSORBER posted:

I won't speak for old_school but I think what he means by wearing your big boy pants is realizing we shut the country down to flatten the curve. Not to prevent people from dying of COVID-19 for which we don't have treatments or completely understand. But to prevent deaths for things for which we do have treatments but can't because our hospital systems are overwhelmed. That's a macro solution to slow the spread, not to stop it. Moving forward we can have micro responses for hot-spots around the country. My worry is we flatlined the curve for parts of the country instead of flattening it. Meaning we are right where we started.

As a country we will always do what we can to prevent death and COVID-19 is nothing different. But try as we may death is always here like murder, automobile accidents, and the flu. Go to the CDC site and check out how many people died so far this year of H1N1pdm09 (yes, the same "swine" flu from our last big pandemic--viruses don't just go away). 

Somehow flattening the curve turned into the hyper-sensitive message of "nobody can be infected" and anyone who spreads the virus is a common criminal. There are millions of Americans working right as I type this who are still performing the same tasks in the same way as they were before the shutdown. Sure, perhaps they have some newer procedures at work; employers don't want their employees to be sick. But there are many who are not working and need to get back. But for them we have to have "special" considerations? Masks, temperature readings, antibody tests, physical spacing, etc.? Uh, there are millions working right now who aren't doing that so why should we impose that on everyone else who returns?  The curve has been (or will be) flattened so we have or will very soon achieve our macro level goal for the country. It's time to handle outbreaks in a micro fashion as we did with previous pandemics like we had in 2009-2010 when the demographic was young, healthy children.

COVID-19 is here to stay. It is not going away. The sooner we realize that the sooner we can make plans to deal with the virus in a way that doesn't hurt 100% of our citizens.

Quick question, where do you live? 

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Quick question, where do you live? 

I live in the country's sixth largest metropolitan area, one that has millions of "essential" workers.

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Quick question, where do you live? 

I live in the country's sixth largest metropolitan area, one that has millions of "essential" workers.

And that is where?

According to search engines it would be BAWA...but why would someone bother searching for themselves. 

damn this virus has made me pissy, I apologize. 

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

ABSORBER posted:

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

Thanks. I didnt see it. I asked because it gives me an idea of why people feel the way that they do.

I think Absorber made a good point.  The whole point of the quarantine was to flatten the curve to make sure our hospitals can handle the case load (remember "don't surf so you don't break your leg" discussion?).  It was never stated that people wouldn't get sick, in fact they said we need to get sick to develop herd immunity.

Well, the curve is flattening, if not flattened, and now governors, mayors and the like moved the goal posts and are now acting as if any and all actions must be taken to stop infection.  It has gotten ridiculous.  You can't buy vegetable seeds in Michigan for god's sake.

3 Million people aren't going to die if we open up.  200k aren't going to die.  The total will be less than a typical flu season.  But we have to get sick so let's get on with it.

BTW, listening to Cuomo is the highlight of my day.  The afternoon govt briefings are strictly for entertainment purposes, except for Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx.

Smitty28 posted:

I think Absorber made a good point.  The whole point of the quarantine was to flatten the curve to make sure our hospitals can handle the case load (remember "don't surf so you don't break your leg" discussion?).  It was never stated that people wouldn't get sick, in fact they said we need to get sick to develop herd immunity.

Well, the curve is flattening, if not flattened, and now governors, mayors and the like moved the goal posts and are now acting as if any and all actions must be taken to stop infection.  It has gotten ridiculous.  You can't buy vegetable seeds in Michigan for god's sake.

3 Million people aren't going to die if we open up.  200k aren't going to die.  The total will be less than a typical flu season.  But we have to get sick so let's get on with it.

I wish everyone knew of someone that was in intensive care. Watching dozens of people dying everyday being joined by doctors and nurses as patients.

It might change minds.

The only thing is we had to go through this to learn a lot about the illness. I am just really annoyed we didnt know sooner than just 4-5 weeks ago.

James G posted:

Stanford testing study is out. From Santa Clara. Found virus 50-80% more widespread than thought and 50-80% less deadly than thought. This is huge, hopefully news picks it up. 

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/conten...020.04.14.20062463v1

This is what I mean, data is coming in constantly, and will continue to come in. Reactions to the pandemic should be about science, data, and knowledge, not just toughness, suck-it-upness, it's bad so deal with it ideas.  Sure people have to suck it up in life, but some do so with knowledge of what is going on around them.  Same with baseball.  Your team is bad, you either deal with it, or you jump to another team - is one somehow more "big boy" than the other?  How often do people on here recommend doing your research before committing to colleges?  Are all the college baseball transfers "big boys", or the opposite?  So just saying "let's be tough right now" in the pandemic, without giving a small space of time for necessary research to take place doesn't make sense, in my opinion.

ABSORBER posted:

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

It is good to bring where you live into context on this particular thread as for it help provide a potential rationale for  one's perspective.

Next simple question,  how many people that you know have passed or have been impacted from the virus?

Note, my friends and family are directly in the hot zones from every angle, so they will definitely give you boots on the ground perspective. 

Note, my brother is a captain in the FDNY, many friends are EMS, NYPD, 1st responders, etc, my mother lives 5 minutes from New Rochelle,  thus when you put a face or names to a situation, numbers are not as important.

Opening up businesses and schools does not make sense.

I'm in Texas.  We have furloughed almost 4K nurses.

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

It is good to bring where you live into context on this particular thread as for it help provide a potential rationale for  one's perspective.

Next simple question,  how many people that you know have passed or have been impacted from the virus?

Note, my friends and family are directly in the hot zones from every angle, so they will definitely give you boots on the ground perspective. 

Note, my brother is a captain in the FDNY, many friends are EMS, NYPD, 1st responders, etc, my mother lives 5 minutes from New Rochelle,  thus when you put a face or names to a situation, numbers are not as important.

Opening up businesses and schools does not make sense.

Tell that to the thousands upon thousands of people that will be standing in food lines so they can eat, or the millions and millions of people they have lost their jobs over this!  I think numbers matter to them....in your words, it’s all about perspective.

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

It is good to bring where you live into context on this particular thread as for it help provide a potential rationale for  one's perspective.

Next simple question,  how many people that you know have passed or have been impacted from the virus?

Note, my friends and family are directly in the hot zones from every angle, so they will definitely give you boots on the ground perspective. 

Note, my brother is a captain in the FDNY, many friends are EMS, NYPD, 1st responders, etc, my mother lives 5 minutes from New Rochelle,  thus when you put a face or names to a situation, numbers are not as important.

Opening up businesses and schools does not make sense.

So your perspective is that of those who are still employed.  I'm sure you understand there are those 22M now unemployed, who have a different perspective and don't share your view

Tim Turner posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

It is good to bring where you live into context on this particular thread as for it help provide a potential rationale for  one's perspective.

Next simple question,  how many people that you know have passed or have been impacted from the virus?

Note, my friends and family are directly in the hot zones from every angle, so they will definitely give you boots on the ground perspective. 

Note, my brother is a captain in the FDNY, many friends are EMS, NYPD, 1st responders, etc, my mother lives 5 minutes from New Rochelle,  thus when you put a face or names to a situation, numbers are not as important.

Opening up businesses and schools does not make sense.

Tell that to the thousands upon thousands of people that will be standing in food lines so they can eat, or the millions and millions of people they have lost their jobs over this!  I think numbers matter to them....in your words, it’s all about perspective.

And you realize that if things open too soon and there are major outbreaks, the economic impacts could be even worse than they would be otherwise?  Can we stop pretending this is some easy, binary decision?--there are a lot of interlocking factors.

Where we are, Target is packed, Home Depot is packed, you have to wait in line to get into grocery stores. If this was going to overtake us, our zip code wouldn’t have been stuck at 14 cases for 2.5 weeks.  Even if they open things up, a lot of people will stay home and the ones who won’t have likely been out quite a bit already.

Chico Escuela posted:

Tim Turner posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

Sorry, Collegebaseballinsights asked me the same question a couple of days ago on a different thread and I answered. I figured he asked me again because he wants to make some sort of point regarding NYC's crisis. I live in the Washington, DC metropolitan area.

It is good to bring where you live into context on this particular thread as for it help provide a potential rationale for  one's perspective.

Next simple question,  how many people that you know have passed or have been impacted from the virus?

Note, my friends and family are directly in the hot zones from every angle, so they will definitely give you boots on the ground perspective. 

Note, my brother is a captain in the FDNY, many friends are EMS, NYPD, 1st responders, etc, my mother lives 5 minutes from New Rochelle,  thus when you put a face or names to a situation, numbers are not as important.

Opening up businesses and schools does not make sense.

Tell that to the thousands upon thousands of people that will be standing in food lines so they can eat, or the millions and millions of people they have lost their jobs over this!  I think numbers matter to them....in your words, it’s all about perspective.

And you realize that if things open too soon and there are major outbreaks, the economic impacts could be even worse than they would be otherwise?  Can we stop pretending this is some easy, binary decision?--there are a lot of interlocking factors.

Never said to open up everything all at once completely 100%....there are a lot of smart people out there that no doubt can figure out how to reopen gradually.  It should not be an all or nothing strategy...gradual with some modifications...see how it goes for a while...then adjust accordingly.  

Reading this thread is like watching an endless loop of the movie “Groundhog Day.” 

Smitty28 posted:

I think Absorber made a good point.  The whole point of the quarantine was to flatten the curve to make sure our hospitals can handle the case load (remember "don't surf so you don't break your leg" discussion?).  It was never stated that people wouldn't get sick, in fact they said we need to get sick to develop herd immunity.

Well, the curve is flattening, if not flattened, and now governors, mayors and the like moved the goal posts and are now acting as if any and all actions must be taken to stop infection.  It has gotten ridiculous.  You can't buy vegetable seeds in Michigan for god's sake.

3 Million people aren't going to die if we open up.  200k aren't going to die.  The total will be less than a typical flu season.  But we have to get sick so let's get on with it.

Here is the interesting thing.

What do you open up? Businesses, if you have a children, where do they go? Remember, most high school students use mass transit, at the elementary levels, do you really think teachers in NYC want to be exposed to the potential risk? 

Note, many business people travel via the Northeast corridor (Amtrak and Long Island Railroad)

Note, in NYS there are some, especially in the Republican level area that have the same sentiment as Texans.

This occurred until they started seeing spikes in the LTC market.

As for Texans, food lines, there is no difference than what happens in NYC, the only difference is that you have to drive to the food pantry, which fortunate force social distancing.

Those in the inner cities aren 't as fortunate  and must stand in line.

Smitty28 posted:

I think Absorber made a good point.  The whole point of the quarantine was to flatten the curve to make sure our hospitals can handle the case load (remember "don't surf so you don't break your leg" discussion?).  It was never stated that people wouldn't get sick, in fact they said we need to get sick to develop herd immunity.

Well, the curve is flattening, if not flattened, and now governors, mayors and the like moved the goal posts and are now acting as if any and all actions must be taken to stop infection.  It has gotten ridiculous.  You can't buy vegetable seeds in Michigan for god's sake.

3 Million people aren't going to die if we open up.  200k aren't going to die.  The total will be less than a typical flu season.  But we have to get sick so let's get on with it.

"The total will be less than a typical flu season"?  Based on what data?

As I recall, the average flu season results in about 47k deaths in the US.  Coronavirus has killed 35k (a number than I admit could get revised up or down) in the space of what, 4 to 6 weeks?  And the Wall Street Journal reports today that