Kyler Murray

He’s a fool if he goes NFL...he’s exactly the kind of QB that breaks easily.

I can understand it if he really gets drafted top15 or so. Top15 nfl pick gets a guaranteed 13-15m or so, while now he only has a guaranteed 4.6m.

If he becomes a star he makes more in baseball but he first needs to get through 3-4 minor league years and then 3-4 minimum pay years depending how service time is manipulated.

Also while he can easily bust as a QB he can also bust in baseball, his hit tool is raw for a college bat and plenty of elite athlete have failed to hit in the majors.

He has a high bust risk in both sports and probably chose the higher floor.

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

I’m in agreement with this article ...

“Forget the minor leagues, bus trips, and the possibility of never making it big in MLB. In the NFL, you play now, get paid now, become a star now. And you can make big bucks as an NFL QB.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sp...fu7yNrboO/story.html

I hope he chooses baseball. I think the A’s will offer him a MLB contract tonight for $10/11M and he will take it. He will be on their 40 tomorrow. MLB wants him and may bend a little on something to help the A’s. 

He just picked the wrong GM to ask for a lot of money.

He is 21 as we speak and 22 in August.  If you assume even 2 years in the minors he will be near 30 before he gets his shot at free agency.  On the other hand as we saw this week with Betts and DeGrom arbitration can yield a $20MM contract but we are talking the apex of the food chain.  If he becomes an everyday CF that is above average in the field and a competent hitter with 20 HR power he can probably expect $7 to $10MM in arbitration.

My guess is making the majors and being everyday CF will depend on hitting breaking ball.  A lot of guys have busted out on that.  That NFL signing bonus is guaranteed money.  If he makes it as a starter he will probably earn another $150MM playing football.  

If he thinks he is Russell Wilson play football.  If he thinks he is Ricky Henderson play baseball.  My guess is Wilson is the likely and better bet.

There is no shortcut to MLB.  He'll need at least 2 years in the minors if not more, to learn how to hit pro pitching.  Even Trout needed that time, and let's face it Murray isn't Trout.

If he thinks he will be a first round pick, it is almost a no brainer to take the football route. Even if he is out of the league in three years, he will clear around 10 million and he'd have cleared a lucrative sponsorship deal. After that first round is up and you move towards the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds in the draft, the money starts running a lot thinner. It's tough to pass that up when 3 months from now he will be riding a bus for 7hrs making $1500 a month. Baseball money is not that good until you establish yourself as a league average + player. Then it is gold. 

I'm just interested to see what the A's do. It doesn't seem like there is a scenario where they come out winners

Btw i could see him taking the tebow route and still trying baseball if he busts at football.

Tebow was too old and too far removed from baseball to make it at 30 at the time but if murray quits football after 3 years at age 24 he could still have a chance.

PABaseball posted:

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

Also not allowed to sign him to an extension  now I think as it would be seen as circumventing the bonus pool.

If there is one thing that is increasingly apparent is that the owners in baseball are much more disciplined about throwing money around than they once were.  The bonus pool for rookies, battle to keep Milb baseball salaries low and the seeming end of long term big money free agent deals for mid career above average players indicate this.

Baseball is probably willing to lose this one to keep financial discipline.

Dominik85 posted:

PABaseball posted:

I think the NFL is his best move (financially), but I'm more interested in the baseball side of this. Let's be optimistic and say he makes in to the big league in 2 years. That is two years of an MLB roster spot being taken up. It also sets up a precedent. High ranking draftees will want what he got. More money. I'm not sure how the A's could possible agree to this. There is also a lot on the line for them. From what I understand they won't be compensated with another pick so there is a lot on the line for them as well. 

Also not allowed to sign him to an extension  now I think as it would be seen as circumventing the bonus pool.

That is an MLB/Commissioner decision as to whether a "wink and nod" agreement was in place when he originally signed.  And the MLB wants him.  I think it depends more on the pushback to the commissioner from the team owner's other than the A's.

luv baseball posted:

If there is one thing that is increasingly apparent is that the owners in baseball are much more disciplined about throwing money around than they once were.  The bonus pool for rookies, battle to keep Milb baseball salaries low and the seeming end of long term big money free agent deals for mid career above average players indicate this.

Baseball is probably willing to lose this one to keep financial discipline.

They are definitely smarter about their money.  And players are MLB ready younger than in the past.  Couple that with the worst union in sports and the owner's are making out.  Specifically allowing a salary cap (titled Luxury Tax) while at the same time ignoring the the biggest prize the owner's have, 6+ years of control of a player.  The players with the service time are only looking at what benefits them, and the younger union members fall in line, bc they are "happy to be there".

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

My understanding of the rule regarding bonus pools, is that if there was an agreement in place for more money before signing him to his $4.x M draft deal, that is a violation as determined by MLB.  If A's sign him to a MLB deal now, and MLB does not object, the deal would be valid.  By their actions and involvement so far, MLB wants him.

My understanding is that MLB sent their marketing staff to meet with Murray's representatives today.  That's from Jeff Passan/ESPN guy this morning.

Dominik85 posted:

Btw i could see him taking the tebow route and still trying baseball if he busts at football.

Tebow was too old and too far removed from baseball to make it at 30 at the time but if murray quits football after 3 years at age 24 he could still have a chance.

Not sure I agree here.  He is a speed guy.  Seems like speed diminishes before power.  And 3 years of getting pounded on a football field won't help in that regard.  Particularly with a player type like him... as a shifty QB, that is a lot of wear on the knees over time.

Buckeye 2015 posted:

... I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

You could be right but I think things are relative in this case.  His head is in it enough that he became an outstanding P5 D1 player.  That said, I was surprised to see that he only hit .122 in 27 games in 2017.  Similarly, with football... went from a rarely used back-up role to a true star and top pro prospect in one year.  Talk about shooting star...

cabbagedad posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

... I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

You could be right but I think things are relative in this case.  His head is in it enough that he became an outstanding P5 D1 player.  That said, I was surprised to see that he only hit .122 in 27 games in 2017.  Similarly, with football... went from a rarely used back-up role to a true star and top pro prospect in one year.  Talk about shooting star...

He was stuck behind last year’s top pick in the NFL draft on Oklahoma’s depth chart.

Go44dad posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

I don't see the A's paying that kind of money....but I also don't understand how MLB just let's them change a rule to pay him $15 mil if that's what he wants to do.  If they let this go for Murray, what's gonna happen when the guy picked #1 next year says I want $25 mil?   You can't pick and choose players because they are a "big name".  I can't imagine the other owners are going to be ok with this deal.   I don't think Murray's head is "in baseball" or we wouldn't be having this discussion.....and as all of you know, if your head isn't in it, it's likely not going to turn out well.

My understanding of the rule regarding bonus pools, is that if there was an agreement in place for more money before signing him to his $4.x M draft deal, that is a violation as determined by MLB.  If A's sign him to a MLB deal now, and MLB does not object, the deal would be valid.  By their actions and involvement so far, MLB wants him.

My understanding is that MLB sent their marketing staff to meet with Murray's representatives today.  That's from Jeff Passan/ESPN guy this morning.

He’s smart. He’s using MLB baseball as leverage for a larger NFL contract.

So if he signs with an NFL team, will the A’s eat their signing bonus or will they retain his MLB rights?

2022OFDad posted:

So if he signs with an NFL team, will the A’s eat their signing bonus or will they retain his MLB rights?

I think I read that they get the bonus money back but waste the pick with no compensation.  They retain his rights.

I say he goes NFL! MLB doesn’t wanna open up the Pandora’s box they would be for a guy that has less than 250 college at bats. The world we live in today thrives off of “well you did it for him”! MLB system has just way too much at stake here to make a mistake over a 5’9” guy who thinks he would enjoy the NFL. That’s only my 2 cents ....heck that might only be worth a penny

2019Lefty21 posted:

I say he goes NFL! MLB doesn’t wanna open up the Pandora’s box they would be for a guy that has less than 250 college at bats. The world we live in today thrives off of “well you did it for him”! MLB system has just way too much at stake here to make a mistake over a 5’9” guy who thinks he would enjoy the NFL. That’s only my 2 cents ....heck that might only be worth a penny

He's entering the draft. Oakland didn't budge. No accommodations are being made. MLB didn't actually have anything at stake, Oakland did and now they look foolish. 

Since Murray signed a baseball contact there isn’t compensation if he walks away. The team retains his rights.

The Celtics reimbursed the Blue Jays for the bonus money they paid Danny Ainge. Therefore, Ainge didn’t have to pay the money back. Obviously Ainge didn’t receive a signing bonus from the Celtics.,

PABaseball posted:

2019Lefty21 posted:

I say he goes NFL! MLB doesn’t wanna open up the Pandora’s box they would be for a guy that has less than 250 college at bats. The world we live in today thrives off of “well you did it for him”! MLB system has just way too much at stake here to make a mistake over a 5’9” guy who thinks he would enjoy the NFL. That’s only my 2 cents ....heck that might only be worth a penny

He's entering the draft. Oakland didn't budge. No accommodations are being made. MLB didn't actually have anything at stake, Oakland did and now they look foolish. 

This is a long way from over.  He put he name in for the NFL draft.  He didn't get drafted and signed by the NFL.  We'll see how this plays out.  MLB will try and help Oakland keep him.  Through marketing, through helping Oakland get their new stadium (if Oakland offers him more than current bonus).  It's not an accommodation if Oakland signs him to a MLB contract and puts him on the 40 man roster.  It's within the rules.

I suspect Go44 is right... Interesting that the only message from him this morning was a tweet "I have declared for the NFL draft".  I didn't see anything resembling the notion that this decision means he will focus all his efforts on football.  I wonder how this will affect his draft stock?  It could drop him considerably if the NFL doesn't know whether he will ever show up (and ultimately choose baseball instead), right?  

Probably lots to be sorted out between now and draft day.  All he really did today was leave both options open.

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

Go44dad posted:

This is a long way from over.  He put he name in for the NFL draft.  He didn't get drafted and signed by the NFL.  We'll see how this plays out.  MLB will try and help Oakland keep him.  Through marketing, through helping Oakland get their new stadium (if Oakland offers him more than current bonus).  It's not an accommodation if Oakland signs him to a MLB contract and puts him on the 40 man roster.  It's within the rules.

Yeah I know. I'm just operating under the assumption that he will be a first rd pick as many are saying and choose football. If he takes that route it will be a very bad look for Oakland who knew the risk when drafting. However, I still don't see MLB making any special accommodations or circumstances for him. If they budge, top prospects can demand the same money and the same terms. Chaos for a player who will take 3 years to develop. 

2022OFDad posted:

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

“Leverage”  

Wonder if he will put his offer on twitter?

2022OFDad posted:

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

I don't see it this way at all. He has options and he is leveraging them. Truthfully, I think he wants to play baseball or he wouldn't have been asking for the 15 million. Football has a bigger payout and when he gets drafted he will say I need $__________ or I'm going to play baseball. His head might be in baseball 100%, but how do you say no to a potential 36 million, days after the Cards coach said he would be interested in him with the 1st pick. Worst case scenario he winds up with 4.6 as a top 10 prospect in Oakland's system. If it were my son in this position it would be hard to advise against playing his cards the exact same way. 

What I read is that he didn’t ask for $15M. That was a false report. 

As badly as MLB needs more African American kids to play baseball, I think baseball is wise not to throw extra money at Kyler at this point. He’s got little better than a 50 percent chance of making it and staying in the big leagues more than 3 years as a first round draft pick in order to get to the second contract. It would be one thing if he batted .400 at Oklahoma and .350 at the Cape. He didn’t come close to those numbers. He batted .177 this summer in Cape Cod. 

MLB does not want Kyler Murray to be a bust. 

Yes, his bat is pretty raw and he likely would have taken 3-4 years in the minors, he isn't a guy like bryant or strasburg who basically only needed a year and a bit in the minors.

This is another reason why football makes sense for him, there is a bust risk but the same applies to baseball 

Btw he struck out 25% last year in college. Still hit 296 with some pop but those Ks are quite scary and show that his hit tool isn't very advanced. He would have had time to learn but there is a lot of risk as there is of course in going to NFL. He isn't a sure thing in either sport so Going for the guaranteed money probably isn't bad.

2022OFDad posted:

He actually made himself to look like he will be a difficult player to deal with  on a contract...trouble before he takes a single snap or pitch!

I don't agree, he is a young man with options and is under demand. The only reason he could be perceived as difficult to work with would be due to teams not being used to players with options. Right now his down side is 6m with the A's and off to the minors, everything above that is better.

I think it depends how he handles himself, where he ends up being drafted at by the NFL and then determining what he wants to do. He has Boras representing him and for better or worse the guy gets his players paid...it is all in the approach I think.

He has the leverage right now, if he isn't picked till say 28th that leverage is going to drop dramatically. If he is top 10 pick he would probably have to take the money from football.

Keep in mind the football people doing the drafting are going to be asking the questions. They are also at risk and that won't help his draft ability, they are actually at more risk then the A's just due to the need for a higher success rate in drafting first rounders.

It will be very interesting.

Dominik85 posted:

Btw he struck out 25% last year in college. Still hit 296 with some pop but those Ks are quite scary and show that his hit tool isn't very advanced. He would have had time to learn but there is a lot of risk as there is of course in going to NFL. He isn't a sure thing in either sport so Going for the guaranteed money probably isn't bad.

have you been watching MLB recently? Hit tool is not relevant and K's don't matter. Just mash it and we give you millions! Dave Kingman was way ahead of his time, he would be a super stud today!

old_school posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Btw he struck out 25% last year in college. Still hit 296 with some pop but those Ks are quite scary and show that his hit tool isn't very advanced. He would have had time to learn but there is a lot of risk as there is of course in going to NFL. He isn't a sure thing in either sport so Going for the guaranteed money probably isn't bad.

have you been watching MLB recently? Hit tool is not relevant and K's don't matter. Just mash it and we give you millions! Dave Kingman was way ahead of his time, he would be a super stud today!

College K rates are lower though and 25 percent might be equivalent to 35% in A ball. That is a little scary albeit he might have improved over time.

Above 30% Ks are still dangerous unless you truely have straight 80 power like joey gallo. Homers are so abundant now that 25 homers with low obp doesn't have a lot of value anymore. Sure if it is 45 homers it doesn't matter but not many can do that.

Does the scout who convinced the A's to pick him in the first round get canned now?