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Pitcher progression

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A adbono10,000+ posts

Coaches know that no pitcher is at top velo in January. But when evaluating a pitcher there is much more to consider than velo progression. Other things that can be evaluated at any time of the year are mental makeup, throwing mechanics, quality of secondary pitches, command of pitches (or lack thereof), body type, projection for growth, body language, work ethic, character (or lack thereof), overall athletic ability, coachability, academic standing, etc. However, all of those other things can’t be hyped up into a sales package and peddled on Twitter. So instead we get “velo dr” scam artists that have kids doing max effort pull downs  into a net (with radar gun measurements) in the dead of winter. All so they can post online how many kids are artificially hitting 90 (while they are being put at risk of injury). It’s all about these pretenders trying to build their brand on the back of unsuspecting HS players and naive parents who fall for it because they believe that velo trumps everything. And it doesn’t. Velo will open a door for you. But you don’t get to walk thru the doorway if you can’t stay healthy, throw strikes, and get outs. There is so much more to pitching than being able to throw hard. And I know this from personal experience. I was an exceptionally hard throwing RHP when I played. But at top velocity I couldn’t command my FB. I was completely ineffective until I learned how pitch. For me that meant figuring out how to command the FB at 90 (instead of max velo), developing a plus change up, and being able to throw any of my 3 pitches for a strike in any count. I didn’t put all of that together until the summer before my senior year in college. Players today don’t get the luxury of being given time to develop (unless they play D3) so you would think people would see the importance of overall development over just chasing velo numbers. But most don’t.

N nycdad10,000+ posts
@RJM posted:

Why is he doing a February showcase? Can’t these coaches see him pitch in June?

Most Northeast schools have camps in Feb. I would say for most kids preparing for the HS season, they should be ok throwing a 25 pitch bullpen in feb, they probably are in the training sessions anywyay.

When my son was going through this, there was one school on his list who had their camp in January, he wasn't ready by then and we didn't do it.

D 25Dad1,000+ posts
@Northeastmom posted:

My son is a high school player (co 2025). He had college coaches see him pitch at peak summer form and some will be seeing him again this weekend. His velo is the same despite his composition changing due to adding muscle. It’s only because of the time of the season. By mid spring to summer his pitching coaches expect to see his velo increase. He obviously isn’t looking at the increase he has had the last couple years, but 2-4 mph seems reasonable. I was just wondering how college coaches view that lack of velo jump in the off season. Also thank you!

I don't think they would look at it like that at all.  I also don't think they would ever look at a January velo in isolation.  I assume the July velos are his max velos from the summer, so good for him that those figures are now his starting point.  I think we all agree that the other factors matter, but velo is a quick gauge to for many to determine if learning more is worth it and gives you good insight on types of schools to focus your attention.  If your son gained weight/worked in the gym during the off season, I would note that progress as well since coaches really care about seeing that too.

MidAtlanticDadMidAtlanticDad10,000+ posts

My opinions on your specific questions, assuming you’re talking about a sophomore pitcher. I think most evaluators would assume that a healthy P is going to pick up some velo from Jan through April just due to getting in game shape. It’s not just the weather, pitching will make him stronger throughout the spring. JMO, but I don’t think an evaluator would put much weight on velo numbers from one 6 month period. So many other factors, including the sample size (many more pitches to measure in the summer than Jan). Did he play another sport during fall or winter? Did he have a growth spurt? Did he put on a bunch of muscle in the weight room? All things that would impact his velo in Jan. Now, if the kid has a full beard at age 16, and his body looks pretty much the same as it did a year ago, and his mechanics are good, then the evaluator might conclude that he's not going to add much more velo.

A adbono10,000+ posts
@RHP_Parent posted:

FWIW, according to my son, the number one metric correlated to velocity is a force-plate jump.  The more force a pitcher can produce, the greater energy can go into the pitch.  I don't understand it, but I'm reporting it

As with every metric there is more to the story than a number. The amount of force that a pitcher can produce from his post leg is important. But that force then needs to be transferred efficiently up thru the lower body, hips, shoulders & arm and ultimately to the baseball. Being able to produce a significant force doesn’t guarantee that any of the rest of that is going to happen. You also need proper and on time hip rotation, hip/shoulder separation, resistance from the stride leg in order to rotate over it, and a follow thru that keeps you in line with the target. That is an over-simplification. But I think you get the point.

N nycdad10,000+ posts
@adbono posted:

As with every metric there is more to the story than a number. The amount of force that a pitcher can produce from his post leg is important. But that force then needs to be transferred efficiently up thru the lower body, hips, shoulders & arm and ultimately to the baseball. Being able to produce a significant force doesn’t guarantee that any of the rest of that is going to happen. You also need proper and on time hip rotation, hip/shoulder separation, resistance from the stride leg in order to rotate over it, and a follow thru that keeps you in line with the target. That is an over-simplification. But I think you get the point.

This is why power lifters aren't baseball players....But I get what he's saying. There are also pro franchises that will base a days workout/life on things like vertical jump to gauge recovery and what you should you be doing in the weight room.

A adbono10,000+ posts
@RHP_Parent posted:

Oh, I agree there's a lot more to being a good pitcher, of course.  I think the original question was about how recruiters go about predicting velocity.  My son's understanding is that colleges or clubs like to use the force plate as a predictor.  Don't know if it is true, but that is what he thinks!

He can think that if he wants to. No harm in that. But I scout & recruit HS pitchers and I coach college pitchers. And I don’t look at force plate as a predictor of anything. Nor do any other college coaches that I know. Just sayin’….

A adbono10,000+ posts

There are a lot of people attempting to make a living in the youth baseball industry by pedaling questionable teaching aids, suspect theories, buzz words, and catch phrases to naive players and their parents. This includes the big name “scouting services” that put on high profile showcases, The chase for velo numbers is like a feeding frenzy. The social media competition is rat poison (to steal a line from Nick Saban). Never before have I seen so many players that throw hard but have not a clue how to pitch. And don’t care to learn.

TPMTPMHSBaseballweb Member since 2003

My understanding is that there is some merit to this theory.

A lot of hard throwers jump the highest and put the most force on the ground. It's not 100%.

The article states that there are other factors involved.

Traditionally the best athletes throw the hardest. That's never changed.

I am not sure what being for profit has to do with it,  just as I am not sure why it was brought up here.

So that we don't confuse those not involved with instructing, or new to the process, let's keep it simple.

FWIW I do believe there are a lot of hard throwers out there who do not know how to pitch. But there are new ideas and theories out there, just as the traditional ones, that do have merit,  so my advice is to find a qualified instructor that will work with your HS pitcher,  and stay away from the new age stuff.

JMO

JucoDadJucoDad5,000+ posts

The science for pitching and hitting mechanics continues to refine, but I agree with @adbono in that a lot of people are looking to make their living off youth baseball. There are lots of former college and pro ballplayer in that space because it's a good fit for their experience and a degree in sports management (or something similar).

While in HS during a Tom House camp and based on run-and-guns, Tom told my son he had the potential to reach 100mph or slightly above (he was a junior that touched 88 at the time). He was pretty dead on, how he knew that or if it was SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) based years of knowledge I have no clue.

I'll just add that arm care and strengthening the deceleration muscle groups is critically important. IMO, all this max effort all the time can't be good long term.

R RHP_Parent1,000+ posts

Just for clarity, my son is a junior D1 player.  He may not be thinking of high school velo.  And we never paid specifically for force-plate testing.  I think they do that testing at Cressey and other training facilities as a matter of course, and, for pitchers, I think "force into the ground" is the rationale.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to be controversial, but just reporting on something that my son mentioned.  Good luck to the OP's player this spring!

A adbono10,000+ posts
@RHP_Parent posted:

Just for clarity, my son is a junior D1 player.  He may not be thinking of high school velo.  And we never paid specifically for force-plate testing.  I think they do that testing at Cressey and other training facilities as a matter of course, and, for pitchers, I think "force into the ground" is the rationale.

Sorry, I wasn't trying to be controversial, but just reporting on something that my son mentioned.  Good luck to the OP's player this spring!

Since we are clarifying, I’m not saying that the amount of force a pitcher can produce out of his post leg isn’t significant. It is. There is just a lot more to it than that. Creating a lot of momentum begins with the post leg. No doubt about that. But there is a whole series of athletic movements that need to take place after the initial load to deliver a pitch with maximum force. So I look more at overall athleticism than anything else (when evaluating the potential of a HS pitcher). Your son is way beyond that kind of evaluation. But I still don’t buy that force plate metric is being used as the main velo predictor by MLB scouts and D1 coaches unless they are guys that never pitched and don’t really understand the kinetic chain. Just like a high EV in a cage setting doesn’t mean a kid is a good hitter. The same principle applies here. At least that’s my opinion.

Buckeye 2015Buckeye 201510,000+ posts

My son typically threw some all winter....then really started to ramp it up in January.  He did a February camp the winter before his junior year.  He was up to 86, which to that point was the hardest he had thrown (at least when there was radar).  There were 2 other guys there who had thrown 90-91 before.  They threw 85 and 86 that day.  A coach talked to my son and mentioned that if he was throwing what those guys were that he would expect him to be 90-ish by summer.  He actually hit 90 for the first time at the end of that Spring HS season.  I guess my point is that yes, the coaches were expecting a jump in the Spring/Summer, even though he had never been higher (and we certainly didn't tell them)

ClevelandDadClevelandDadHSBBWeb Administrator

Some questions for adbono albeit rhetorical questions in nature...

By today's "velocity" standards, were Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux hard throwers?  Jaime Moyer? I agree that Smotlzy had some giddyup on the ball but he obviously knew how to pitch as well.

The focus on velocity for kids makes no sense to me.  I agree kids now are throwing harder but at what cost?  How many are using "maximum effort" to achieve those velocities?  How many have control over those pitches (like you mentioned above) when they are "maxing out"? 

How about instead, a kid learns to throw with controlled effort based on whatever his God-given abilities are at that time.  Develops whatever his velocity is going to be over years while developing arm strength over time.  The priority shifts from velocity to a kid learning about pin-point location at every area of the strike zone (e.g., Maddux, Glavine).  Learning how to put a little on (because he has some left in the tank) and learning how to take a little off - all the while maintaining his control of the strike zone. 

N NY1,000+ posts
@ClevelandDad posted:

Some questions for adbono albeit rhetorical questions in nature...

By today's "velocity" standards, were Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux hard throwers?  Jaime Moyer? I agree that Smotlzy had some giddyup on the ball but he obviously knew how to pitch as well.

The focus on velocity for kids makes no sense to me.  I agree kids now are throwing harder but at what cost?  How many are using "maximum effort" to achieve those velocities?  How many have control over those pitches (like you mentioned above) when they are "maxing out"?

How about instead, a kid learns to throw with controlled effort based on whatever his God-given abilities are at that time.  Develops whatever his velocity is going to be over years while developing arm strength over time.  The priority shifts from velocity to a kid learning about pin-point location at every area of the strike zone (e.g., Maddux, Glavine).  Learning how to put a little on (because he has some left in the tank) and learning how to take a little off - all the while maintaining his control of the strike zone.

THIS IS GOLD!

A adbono10,000+ posts
@ClevelandDad posted:

Some questions for adbono albeit rhetorical questions in nature...

By today's "velocity" standards, were Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux hard throwers?  Jaime Moyer? I agree that Smotlzy had some giddyup on the ball but he obviously knew how to pitch as well.

The focus on velocity for kids makes no sense to me.  I agree kids now are throwing harder but at what cost?  How many are using "maximum effort" to achieve those velocities?  How many have control over those pitches (like you mentioned above) when they are "maxing out"?

How about instead, a kid learns to throw with controlled effort based on whatever his God-given abilities are at that time.  Develops whatever his velocity is going to be over years while developing arm strength over time.  The priority shifts from velocity to a kid learning about pin-point location at every area of the strike zone (e.g., Maddux, Glavine).  Learning how to put a little on (because he has some left in the tank) and learning how to take a little off - all the while maintaining his control of the strike zone.

I couldn’t have said it better myself. There are a lot of things that are contributing to the obsession with velocity. And few of them are good. First of all, today’s radar guns read hotter than the ones used back when the guys you mentioned were playing. Maddux could throw pretty hard when he wanted to. But he didn’t have to throw as hard as he could to get big league hitters out. I imagine he prolonged his career by taking the approach that he did. So while those guys weren’t regarded as hard throwers only Moyer was a soft tosser. To answer your question about commanding the baseball at max effort, not many kids can do that very well. And a radar gun reading on the ball right out of the hand on a full sprint pull down is not a FB velo. It’s an indication of potential but it often doesn’t transfer to the game mound.  Some of the biggest offenders are so called velo drs that conduct velo camps and post results on Twitter to create a bunch of hype. What they really are doing is building their brand on the backs of unsuspecting kids and parents. Some pitching clinics are pretty good, but for every good one there are 10 bad ones. PG, PBR, and VTool don’t help the cause. All they talk about is velo too. All of it is social media based and plays into the immediate gratification that young players want. And the “scouting reports” that are written for those orgs are not written by scouts. They are written by employees, some of which have no background in baseball. I heard a D1 RC from a school in Houston say something about this subject that I thought was profound. He said, “ kids today care more about getting likes and follows on social media than they care about what actual decision makers (that can alter the course of their lives) think.”
Velo can create opportunities. But if you can’t command the baseball that’s all it creates and they can go away quickly.  Nobody gives a tinker’s damn what the velo and spin rate are on ball 4. Except for the people that are taking your money in return for that data. The Baseball public has been brainwashed to believe that velo is the be all end all to pitching because that pitch can be parlayed into money. But it isn’t true (like so many other things we have all been told). Last weekend in a 3 game set (23 innings total) our JuCo pitching staff walked 25 batters, hit 4 more, and balked 4 times. That’s 33 free bases. By some miracle we won 2 of the 3 games, but the loss was a blowout. Our HC went ballistic on the PC and the pitching staff and asked me to come up with a plan on what to do. And I did. And it was a plan that focused on commanding the baseball, especially off speed pitches. Because hardly any 18-20 year pitchers that throw hard are very good at that. And I believe the reason that they aren’t is too much focus on velo at the expense of everything else that goes along with being an effective pitcher. But it looks good on Twitter!

ConsultantConsultant10,000+ posts
Adbono;
As a hitter, I can adjust to the "pure" fastball pitcher. Go deep in the
box and choke the bat.

On a "smart" pitcher who has extra fastball in his back pocket, there are
few adjustments to make except to "guess".
During the Braves successful years their pitching philosophy was consistent
from the ML tream to minors. Knowledge and intelligence over the radar gun.
Young pitchers today "study" the history of the great pitchers.
Bob

On Thu, Feb 9, 2023 at 3:05 PM HS Baseball Web <alerts@crowdstack.com>
wrote:
A adbono10,000+ posts
@Consultant posted:
Adbono;
As a hitter, I can adjust to the "pure" fastball pitcher. Go deep in the
box and choke the bat.

On a "smart" pitcher who has extra fastball in his back pocket, there are
few adjustments to make except to "guess".
During the Braves successful years their pitching philosophy was consistent
from the ML tream to minors. Knowledge and intelligence over the radar gun.
Young pitchers today "study" the history of the great pitchers.
Bob

On Thu, Feb 9, 2023 at 3:05 PM HS Baseball Web <alerts@crowdstack.com>
wrote:

Right on target, Bob. As usual.

N nycdad10,000+ posts

I think velo opens doors, and velo even opens doors that closed from not being able to command. Seems there are more coaches out there that view a wild hard thrower as someone they can teach to pitch vs. developing velo from a pitcher that gets outs....Have to throw 90+ to command 90+.

But I agree that you need more than velo and actually develop into a pitcher. My 2020 had good velo for his conference freshman year, but was wild. Second year developed his slider half way through the season and was getting outs, but velo dropped. He was let go. Schools liked his slider, but not a lot of options until his velo got back up.

I think the pendulum swung very far to the velo side over the last couple of years, and is swinging back more toward "pitchability" which is good. But I wouldn't want to mislead a kid throwing 80poo that as long as he gets out in HS and travel he's a D1 talent.

There are a lot of kids that post their hardest throw on Twitter,and there's a big difference between hitting a high number and being able to maintain/sit at that number.

There are also a lot of college coaches that will post platitudes about command and control on Twitter, and their first question to a kids's coach in private will be "What's his velo?"

I'm sure if you created two emails, and emailed coaches as a kid throwing 94 vs. 84, the 94 would get a lot more responses.

N Northeastmom1,000+ posts
@adbono posted:

I couldn’t have said it better myself. There are a lot of things that are contributing to the obsession with velocity. And few of them are good. First of all, today’s radar guns read hotter than the ones used back when the guys you mentioned were playing. Maddux could throw pretty hard when he wanted to. But he didn’t have to throw as hard as he could to get big league hitters out. I imagine he prolonged his career by taking the approach that he did. So while those guys weren’t regarded as hard throwers only Moyer was a soft tosser. To answer your question about commanding the baseball at max effort, not many kids can do that very well. And a radar gun reading on the ball right out of the hand on a full sprint pull down is not a FB velo. It’s an indication of potential but it often doesn’t transfer to the game mound.  Some of the biggest offenders are so called velo drs that conduct velo camps and post results on Twitter to create a bunch of hype. What they really are doing is building their brand on the backs of unsuspecting kids and parents. Some pitching clinics are pretty good, but for every good one there are 10 bad ones. PG, PBR, and VTool don’t help the cause. All they talk about is velo too. All of it is social media based and plays into the immediate gratification that young players want. And the “scouting reports” that are written for those orgs are not written by scouts. They are written by employees, some of which have no background in baseball. I heard a D1 RC from a school in Houston say something about this subject that I thought was profound. He said, “ kids today care more about getting likes and follows on social media than they care about what actual decision makers (that can alter the course of their lives) think.”
Velo can create opportunities. But if you can’t command the baseball that’s all it creates and they can go away quickly.  Nobody gives a tinker’s damn what the velo and spin rate are on ball 4. Except for the people that are taking your money in return for that data. The Baseball public has been brainwashed to believe that velo is the be all end all to pitching because that pitch can be parlayed into money. But it isn’t true (like so many other things we have all been told). Last weekend in a 3 game set (23 innings total) our JuCo pitching staff walked 25 batters, hit 4 more, and balked 4 times. That’s 33 free bases. By some miracle we won 2 of the 3 games, but the loss was a blowout. Our HC went ballistic on the PC and the pitching staff and asked me to come up with a plan on what to do. And I did. And it was a plan that focused on commanding the baseball, especially off speed pitches. Because hardly any 18-20 year pitchers that throw hard are very good at that. And I believe the reason that they aren’t is too much focus on velo at the expense of everything else that goes along with being an effective pitcher. But it looks good on Twitter!

Speaking of velo at a sprint, what does it say if a pitcher’s velo on those run and guns is basically the same as his mound velo? Is it that mechanics on the mound are actually getting him the velo, and on the run and gun he isn’t using mechanics to generate the same power? Or is it that he just isn’t athletic enough to figure out how to get power out of the run and gun? Or maybe lower potential for improving velo? Just curious. I know of a couple pitchers who have the same velo for run and guns. Others have a 5mph plus gap. My son is in between.

A adbono10,000+ posts
@Northeastmom posted:

Speaking of velo at a sprint, what does it say if a pitcher’s velo on those run and guns is basically the same as his mound velo? Is it that mechanics on the mound are actually getting him the velo, and on the run and gun he isn’t using mechanics to generate the same power? Or is it that he just isn’t athletic enough to figure out how to get power out of the run and gun? Or maybe lower potential for improving velo? Just curious. I know of a couple pitchers who have the same velo for run and guns. Others have a 5mph plus gap. My son is in between.

It’s rare (IMO) to see mound velo equal to run & gun. Usually run & gun is a measure of potential that can be achieved when a player is acting like an athlete and not thinking about mechanics. In a case where the velos are equal it’s an indication that a pitcher is being efficient with his delivery and is getting a lot of power out of his lower body - which is where most inefficiencies lie.

A adbono10,000+ posts

Pitchers that throw hard have always been awarded a badge of honor. That was true when I played 40 years ago and its true today. But it shouldn’t be that way tbh. And I say that as a guy that wore that badge. In college I pitched on a staff that had 3 guys make it to the big leagues. And 3 more that pitched in the minors. I threw harder than all of them. But was I a better pitcher than they were? Obviously I was not. I think the movie Moneyball did a great job of describing the archaic thinking of buying players vs buying wins - and in order to buy wins you need to buy runs. In order to do that well you have to understand where runs come from. And which players are really good at doing the things that produce runs. Starting with getting on base at a high percentage. At the MLB, Milb, and high D1 level I think similar principles are applied to pitching. But those principles are not applied to youth baseball. Up to and including most HS programs. All the things mentioned by @ClevelandDad are essential to being a good pitcher but there isn’t enough focus on teaching those things. Because people are more concerned about making money than teaching the game. That’s assuming they know how to teach it. When talking about teaching pitching I often compare it to a pie that has been cut into 6 or 8 pieces. You can find guys that can teach about 2 or 3 of the pieces. But it’s rare to find an instructor that can teach the whole pie. So most of them focus on velo. An exception is Tom House who I think does a great all around job of teaching pitching. I don’t agree with everything he says but he is very knowledgeable, very accessible, and shares information freely. His Team Mustard app is really good. With the pitchers that I coach, train, instruct, and advise I find myself being a counselor as much as anything.

N Northeastmom1,000+ posts
@adbono posted:

It’s rare (IMO) to see mound velo equal to run & gun. Usually run & gun is a measure of potential that can be achieved when a player is acting like an athlete and not thinking about mechanics. In a case where the velos are equal it’s an indication that a pitcher is being efficient with his delivery and is getting a lot of power out of his lower body - which is where most inefficiencies lie.

Interesting, thanks. Maybe a dumb question but is efficient delivery considered good? Or would a college coach rather have room to improve a pitcher? Just curious to understand.

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