The ODDS of playing

Great to have your well thought out perspectives infielddad and Coach May. So wonderful to see you back, and knowing that on some level you are always here checking in day by day.

I love reading your posts and feel as though we are old friends!

Great to know you are out there too, fanofgame! Here's to a productive new season for our boys!

Jon Gruden was talking on ESPN radio this morning and went through a list of guys who had to basically wait their turn before playing.  He mentioned Steve Young and Joe Theisman who did not become starting QB's until their 30's.  Kurt Warner was bagging groceries when he finally got his chance to see if the odds applied to him.  Rich Gannon and now Josh McCown blossomed later in their careers.  As Gruden pointed out, sometimes it isn't all about talent but about having the talent and taking advantage of an opportunity when it finally gets there.

For all the youngsters out there reading the inspirational stories about Joe Theisman and Kurt Warner...which really are inspirational...I wonder if PG or someone else could post up the number of 85 mph and under high school RHPs they have seen go pro, compared to all the RHPs they have seen.

And let the kids decide whether they want to ride or buck the odds/trend/history/data.

I think information is a great thing. I don't think information should be held back or that people should be told to ignore information. If a person knows himself...has self-awareness...more information can only be used in a positive way, I think.

Green Light,

I think that is something our tech guys can put together.  However, what criteria should we use?  We have peak velocity that we have seen on nearly every pitcher we have ever seen.  We also have boxed out velocity, i.e. 84-86 meaning that is closer to an average velocity for that pitcher.

Also we need to establish where they were art any given time, freshman, soph, jr, senior in HS.  

We have seen some, like Chris Sale, who were mid 80s as a junior in high school end up at mid 90s or better in college.

To be honest I can't think of a single pitcher who we saw below 85 mph as a senior in HS that has ever made it to the Big Leagues, but maybe we have.  We have seen a ton of pitchers throw 90 or better that haven't made it either.  However, most of those that throw over 90 end up getting a chance to make it.

I will see what we can come up with.  I see where your coming from.  The odds of a pitcher making a living playing baseball if he is throwing no better than 80 mph in HS would be very low.  More interesting would be the odds of all those who threw 90 or better in high school. Obviously the 90 mph pitchers odds would be much better.  Once again proving the odds are not the same for everyone that plays.

While that might tell us something, it won't tell us enough.  Why does one mid 90s guy become a MLB All Star and another mid 90s guy never make it to the Big Leagues?  Sure there are the other things beside velocity that separate two pitchers.  But how much does the mind control the outcome?  I doubt the guys that make it consider it that big of a long shot.  Maybe the guys that don't are considering the odds, too much.  I do know that some feel they have accomplished their goals when they are drafted and sign.  They become satisfied with their accomplishments, which that one of the worst things that can happen to a baseball player.  Satisfaction is the enemy!

There are several things that can help someone determine odds, but none of them are exact.  TOOLS can help,determine odds.  The guy that grades out the highest has better odds.  Really it is not that difficult to figure out who has the necessary tools.  Someone that is well below average in every category will have almost NO chance of ever playing in the Big Leagues unless he dramatically improves in a few areas.

Who has the best odds?

Running

6.6-60, 4.2-H1

7.6-60, 4.9-H1

Throwing

90+ velocity and accurate

80 velocity and wild

Power

Lots of power

No power

Fielding

Good feet, good hands, good range, smooth actions

Slow feet, hard hands, no range, stiff actions

Hitting

Good bat speed, consistent contact, good balance, nice swing.

Slow bat, swings and misses, bad balance, poor swing.

Now who has the better odds of making it?  And why would the bottom guy even be considered part of the odds?

obviously this is somewhat of an exaggeration.  Usually it's not this big a difference in lots of players.  But there is always a difference!  Often that difference goes way beyond what the "tools" dictate. But you cannot ignore the tools.  They help determine the "real" odds for any given player.  

Now the other odds we keep hearing about...  The 1 in a million type odds!  Maybe they should be looked at like this. What are the odds of any high school player possessing the necessary tools to become a professional baseball player.  That would make more sense. Because in the end, those lacking the tools really don't play a part in the "true" odds of making it.  Their odds are most likely ZERO! So you take away all the millions of ZERO chance guys and the odds look much better for the rest. And even the rest will have their own individual odds of making it. All we know is some people are in fact going to make it.

Sounds like Plan B is to move back into your house.

Not intending to give you "an assignment" but if your tech guys could do it, it might be very useful for many readers.

You ask what criteria to use. I think if you explain your methodology, whichever you choose to follow, the good readers of HSBBW would be able to understand and appreciate.

If it's not too much of a hassle, thanks in advance

No... That is not his Plan B. He does not live with us in the off season now, I do not ever expect him to move back home. We do enjoy his visits however. He is a hard working capable adult and he will make the proper decisions when that time does come.

I am with floridafan on this one.  I don't think that you necessarily need a plan B....in my mind that is like you're planning to fail, so then, why even bother, just move on to plan B.  Stick with plan A and devote 100% effort, if it doesn't work out, THEN you come up with a new plan A!

I don't think people should be taking shots at floridafan.  Without the attitude he is trying to convey, the odds are indeed zero.

What would some of you skeptics in this thread tell Kurt Warner (assuming you didn't already know how his future turned out?)  Rather than the odds of 750 pro positions as in baseball, Warner was competing for that most elusive job that only includes 30 players.  Throw in backups and maybe you are talking about 90 players on the planet.

Below is a clip from his bio and it is fascinating to read.  He did not start until he was a senior in college at that well-known college powerhouse Northern Iowa.  Went undrafted and was out of college for four years before he even got a chance as a backup player.  Daniel Nava of the Boston Redsox has a very similar story.  One thing I know from experience is that most people out there will doubt you all along the way.  If you don't have the belief that Warner, Nava, and what floridafan is talking about, the game is already over. 

Biography for Kurt Warner from Wikipedia:

High school and college

Born in Burlington, Iowa, Warner played football at Regis High School in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, graduating in 1989 Next, he attended the University of Northern Iowa, graduating in 1993. At UNI, Warner was third on the Panthers' depth chart until his senior year. When Warner was finally given the chance to start, he was named the Gateway Conference's Offensive Player of the Year.

Professional career

Arena Football

Following his college career, Warner went undrafted in the 1994 NFL Draft. He was invited to try out for the Green Bay Packers' training camp in 1994, but was released before the regular season began; Warner was competing for a spot against Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and former Heisman Trophy winner Ty Detmer. While Warner was with the Packers, the head coach was Mike Holmgren; the quarterback coach was Steve Mariucci; and Andy Reid was the offensive assistant. ^[11] After Warner was released, Mariucci told him that he knew Warner had enormous potential but was not ready to be an NFL quarterback yet.

It was at this time that Warner stocked shelves at a Hy-Vee grocery store in Cedar Falls for $5.50 an hour.^[12] Warner often used this as the starting point when telling of his rise to NFL stardom in 1999. He also mentioned his religious conversion that occurred around 1997.^[13] Warner also returned to Northern Iowa and worked as a graduate assistant coach with the football team, all the while still hoping to get another tryout with an NFL team.

With no NFL teams willing to give him a chance, Warner turned to the Arena Football League (AFL) in 1995, and signed with the Iowa Barnstormers. Warner was named to the AFL's First-team All-Arena in both 1996 and 1997 after he led the Barnstormers to Arena Bowl appearances in both seasons. Warner's performance was so impressive that he would be named twelfth out of the 20 Best Arena Football Players of all time.^[14]

Before the 1997 Arena season, he requested and got a tryout with the Chicago Bears, but an injury to his throwing elbow caused by a spider bite sustained during his honeymoon prevented him from attending.^[15]

In 2000, after Warner's breakout NFL season, the Arena Football League used his new notoriety for the name of their first widely available video game, Kurt Warner's Arena Football Unleashed.

On August 12, 2011, Kurt Warner was named as an inductee into the AFL Hall of Fame.

NFL

St. Louis Rams

In 1998, Warner was finally signed by an NFL franchise, the St. Louis Rams, and was allocated to NFL Europe's Amsterdam Admirals, where he would lead the league in touchdowns (TDs) and passing yards.^[16] Incidentally, his backup at the time was future Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme, another famous rags-to-riches quarterback story. Returning to the United States for the season, Warner spent the 1998 season as St. Louis's third-string quarterback behind Tony Banks and Steve Bono. He ended his season completing only 4 of 11 pass attempts for 39 yards and a 47.2 QB rating.

1999 season

After releasing Banks and Bono following the 1998 season, the Rams signed free agent Trent Green to be their starting QB, and Warner was promoted to second string. When Green tore his ACL in a preseason game, Warner took over as the Rams' starter. St. Louis coach Dick Vermeil famously stated in a press conference, "We'll rally around Kurt Warner and we will play good football," before even seeing Warner work with the Rams' starting offense. With the support of running back Marshall Faulk and wide receivers Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Az-Zahir Hakim, and Ricky Proehl, Warner put together one of the top seasons by a quarterback in NFL history, throwing for 4,353 yards with 41 touchdown passes and a completion rate of 65.1%. The Rams' high-powered offense, run by offensive coordinator Mike Martz, was nicknamed "The Greatest Show on Turf" and registered the first in a string of three consecutive 500-point seasons, an NFL record.

Warner threw three touchdown passes in each of his first three NFL starts; he is the only NFL quarterback in history to accomplish that feat. Warner drew more attention in the Rams' fourth game of the season, a home game against the San Francisco 49ers (who had been NFC West division champions for 12 of the previous 13 seasons). The Rams had lost their last 17 meetings with the 49ers, but Warner proceeded to throw a touchdown pass on each of the Rams' first three possessions of the game, and four TDs in the first half alone, to propel the Rams to a 28–10 halftime lead on the way to a 42–20 victory. Warner finished the game with five touchdown passes, giving him 14 in four games and the Rams a 4–0 record. Warner's breakout season from a career in anonymity was so unexpected that Sports Illustrated featured him on their October 18 cover with the caption "Who Is This Guy?" ^[17] He was named the 1999 NFL MVP at the season's end.

In the NFL playoffs, Warner ultimately led the Rams to a Super Bowl XXXIV victory against the Tennessee Titans. In the game, he threw for two touchdowns and a Super Bowl-record 414 passing yards, including a critical 73-yard touchdown to Isaac Bruce when the game was tied with just over two minutes to play. Warner also set a Super Bowl record by attempting 45 passes without a single interception. For his performance, Warner was awarded the Super Bowl MVP, becoming the seventh player to win both the league MVP and Super Bowl MVP awards in the same year.

Greenlight - I can take a shot at your question based on personal experience.  I haven't seen the 10's of thousands of players that PG has but I have seen hundreds at the highest levels of high school ball, hundreds more at the highest levels of college baseball, and hundreds and hundreds more at professional baseball.

One thing to keep in mind and this is really important for kids who have the dream - what you see today might not be what you see five years from now if you develop yourself.  A kid in high school who throws 85 will not be drafted out of high school.  That same kid could go to a juco and in two years may be throwing 88 with a nasty curveball and sign a nice D1 scholarship at a mid-major or higher D1.  That same kid might be touching 90 consistently and get drafted in the top 25 rounds of the draft at the end of his college career.  That same kid might develop even more in the pros and progress through the minors improving each year.  That same kid might get his number called someday.  It takes years to get that shot but that is the road for many players.

If you develop a trick pitch such as throwing as submariner or knuckleballer, lower velocity may be acceptable even at the big league level if over time, the pitcher throws highly effectively.  Doug Jones toiled for years in the Indians minor league system and they would never give him a shot because his velocity was not high enough.  He was a pitch-to-contact closer and that is definitely out of the mold for closers.  Out of desperation, the Indians finally gave him shot and all he did was go on to become an all-star closer in both leagues.  There are lots of stories like this and I agree the odds are low if the player does not have the ambition to stick to it.  There is a great quote attributed to Bruce Lee - he allegedly said "Talent creates opportunity but desire creates talent"  I'll admit I am a Kool-Aid drinker but sometimes that is what it takes. 

Thanks, CD. I get where you're coming from.

You say a high school righty who tops out at 85 won't be drafted out of high school. I agree.

But then I ask myself, "why not"? What thought process are all these pro scouts going thru? One answer would be "odds". What other possibilities can anyone think of.

I think I said this before. If anyone thinks a manager/coach/organization is 100% in on your kid...with no Plan B for him....then it is ok for the kid not to have a Plan B either. If you think they may be considering possible options then the kid should too.

Mitch Canham's post touched on this also, I think.

If anyone is concerned that a kid will be dissuaded from chasing his dream if unfavorable odds are shown to him....then that's gotta be a pretty flimsy dream, I think. That's why I have trouble agreeing with the line of thought that kids shouldn't even be shown the odds (not saying you said that, just a general comment)

GL, one might infer from these comments that players should be shown the odds to know they exist.  For most, I don't know if that is true.  Our son worked out with Daniel Nava during one off season.  One of them wasn't drafted out of college. One of them was drafted from a D3.  Between the two of them, the only odds which mattered were for our son and his odds of recovering from a September labrum surgery in time to be ready to report early to Spring Training. Their workouts challenged the strength and conditioning coach on many days because they were challenging each other.

In college, our son was keenly aware there were "odds" of a D3 guy getting drafted and didn't care. CD and JH interviewed our son on the HSBBW radio.  He was pretty clear that up until the point when he could not get medically cleared to play heading into his 4th year of Milb, he believed he was going to play at the MLB level.

From my perspective, I wonder if we give players enough credit by suggesting they need to know the odds and in some fashion have those quantified. My perspective is most of the ones who make it understand that odds exist, they just don't care about the odds, or what they are. It would not change them if the odds were 20:1 or 100,000:1.  That is their mindset and focus. They see friends "released" from ST every March, every April and throughout a Milb season.  While they care for the friends situation, they don't care, how, if at all the "odds" changed.  They have a single focus on those baseball things in their control. That is something they hear from the very first day of Milb orientation and usually hear weekly, at least, after that. Whether they went 0-4 or 5-5, their mental focus is the next game and being mentally and physically ready to compete. Maybe odds take away from the mental focus and preparation needed for the next game, next work out, next step?  These are incredibly strong minded, determined and focused players, to a very great extent.  One other aspect is many of them truly love and have a passion for the game and competing, which also impacts whether they should know  the odds.

While there are exceptions I am sure,  Milb is a very maturing experience. The mental toughness, focus and elasticity which many exhibit is something I learned to respect, at a very high level. I would question if "showing" them the odds would just be another distraction most don't need???

"He who knows himself is enlightened"

If seeing data...in this case percentages or odds....would be a distraction that a person doesn't need, then I agree that this person should not seek to acquire that knowledge.

But if a little thing like this could throw him off his game or his dream, then how is he going to deal with the real challenges in life and baseball.

Again, I have no intention to preach...although I guess I am sounding that way a little. I am trying to say what I would do, not what I think others should do

I've been quietly following along as most of you have been there and done that with your kids.  But I felt compelled to ask my son why he wants to pursue a career at baseball.  Now please, keep in mind, this is coming from a 14 year old...

ME:  Why do you bother playing baseball?  Do you know the odds of playing in the MLB?

SON:  Because I love baseball.  I know the odds are slim to none.

ME:  Then if you know they are slim to none, why bother?  

SON:  Because as long as the odds are more then zero I have a chance.

Ahhh, how great is it to be 14 and not concerned with Plan B's.  Those things are what parents worry about.

Strong minded players like Daniel Nava, Eric Davis and many, many others who have come through this site excelled and got to the MLB level without knowing the odds and/or having them quantified.  Thousands before Bob created this site did the same.

I don't get why quantifying the odds adds anything, to be honest. Is more information better and more useful in terms of the road to be plowed or the path to be run...or just more information?

I think odds are something that parents worry about.  The players do not.  

I can think of several lofty goals that I set for myself when I started my work career. Some of my co-workers laughed as they thought they were unattainable.  I eventually achieved them all.  I never cared about the odds.

At least in Milb, I would doubt  odds are toward the top of the issues for most players.  From all the discussions I have had and the postings over the years on this site, the mentally challenging aspect  for a lot of Milb players is the lack of feedback and information from the organization. 

With that said, and as others posted in this thread, there is no right or wrong answer.  While the extent of the odds would not matter for some son's, GL may be correct that such information might well matter for others, especially this generation which is growing up  attached to phones, the internet and immediate feedback and data. Perhaps having the data, as PG and GL discussed, might shed light on how it could be used in ways I currently don't see, and bring another round of thoughts to a very interesting HSBBW discussion.

CD,

Your post brought back memories.  Kurt Warner is a kid I once coached.  I actually wanted him to concentrate on baseball because I thought it was his best chance for success.  He was also a very good basketball player.  I'm so very happy he didn't do what I thought was in his best interest. His story shows what persistence and belief is all about

The article also mentioned Trent Green. He was also from Cedar Rapids.  His biological father is Gene Miller who is still one of my best friends.  After divorce Trent's mother married another good friend Jim Green and moved out of state.

Obviously you didn't need to know all this, but we are talking about Cedar Rapids, Iowa, not some big city hotbed for athletics.

My youngest son, who pitched briefly for the D'Backs, Yankees and Brewers in the Major Leagues best friend in high school was Dedric Ward who went on to be a wide receiver for several years in the NFL.

Yet another kid from Cedar Rapids went on to win the Masters and just beat Tiger Woods last week on on an unbelievable shot. BTW, Zach Johnson was never the best golfer on any golf team HS or college.  But he is one of the best golfers in the world now.

BTW, the best basketball player at U of North Carolina right now is from where... Yep, Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Odds are he will end up in the NBA.

No one could have predicted any of those above to get to the highest level. But it happens!  Somebody has got to fill those spots at the highest level. Maybe it is TPM's son, or Bums son, or your son.  Maybe it will be someone else's son who posts here.  I'll be honest, I didn't think Zach Duke (opps son) would pitch in the Major Leagues.  Well he has had quite a career in the Big Leagues.

Luckily, The odds (whatever they might be) don't mean a damn thing to some people.

Love that post PG. You know there are many people who beat the "odds" that you will never hear about or read about. Guys like Johnathon Howard. A few years back on the first day of summer work outs this guy showed up to work out with us. He was a freshman. We would do a lot of agility drills, speed work, core work and some days work on some baseball stuff. Mostly it was a time for our guys to long toss, get some good work in and many played on the weekends on travel teams. The freshman that thought they wanted to try out were welcome. In fact any one was welcome to come and work out. This program was ran by me over the summer for those who wanted to do it.

Jon was about 5'9 and weighed about 250. He was so out of shape it was pathetic. The first day we went to the track to run a mile for time. He ran the first half of a lap and then walked the rest of the mile. He couldn't run one lap. The first day we took infield he went to 3B. When he did field a gb he could not get the ball to first in the air. Yes that is the truth. He simply could not play. He could hardly catch. I had to pull the players to the side one day and tell them if anyone made fun of anyone they were no longer welcome. It was that bad.

After about a week I went to Jon and told him that he was welcome to continue to work out. But I wanted to be honest with him and tell him if he was working out with us because he thought it would sway or opinion when cuts were made in the spring he was mistaken. I told him that he needed to use this summer and a start to changing his lifestyle. Eating habits. And to strive to be a healthy young man.

Jon made the JV as a freshman and saw only mop up AB's no time in the field. He continued to work so hard in season and out of season. As a soph on JV he saw about the same role. As a Jr on Varsity he rode the pine. As a Sr on Varsity he saw some mop up duty as a catcher. What had changed? He was 5'11 170 lbs and ripped. He ran the mile in 6min. He had confidence in himself. He won the respect of everyone. And he walked on at a very good D3 and won the job as the #3 catcher.

He played 4 years of college baseball and as a sr played several games as the #2 catcher. When he walked up that day in June his odds were 0. He changed those odds. The odds are now that he is going to be very successful at what ever he does in life. I believe in people who don't care about the odds. They have a dream and they go for it. Those who have to weigh out possible failure over potential victory will never achieve greatness. They will fail as soon as they see the odds are not in their corner. Those who say to hel with the odds? They put their stake in the ground and they fight. IMO Jon achieved greatness. He was as great as he could possibly be. What more can you ask of anyone?

Great stuff Coach May and infielddad!

PG - I knew you had a history with Kurt Warner but figured if Kurt Warner's story was not relevant to this thread than nobody's was.  You could have also mentioned Tim Dwight and Casey Blake but I am pretty sure those guys were recognized as outstanding players in high school and college before going onto successful pro careers.

I think Daniel Nava's story is as equally compelling as Kurt Waner's.  If he would have listened to people, I am pretty sure he should have given up the game in 9th grade.

Here's a clip from Daniel Nava's bio:

High school and college baseball career

Nava was born in Redwood City, California. He played baseball at St. Francis High School in Mountain View, California^[1] and received his Psychology degree from Santa Clara University. He was 4 ft 8 in (1.42 m) and 70 pounds (32 kg) in his freshman year in high school and grew to 5 ft 5 in (1.65 m) and 150 pounds (68 kg) by his senior year.^[2]

After an opportunity to walk-on to the Santa Clara University baseball team, he failed to make the team as a player and became the team equipment manager.^[3]

He left Santa Clara after two years because he could no longer afford the tuition.^[3] He then enrolled in the College of San Mateo (junior college).^[4] He tried out for the baseball team on the encouragement of an old friend he happened to run into at a gym.^[3] While at the College of San Mateo, he became a Junior College All-American. Later Santa Clara wanted him back^[5] and eventually offered him a full scholarship.^[6] He hit .395 with an on-base percentage of .494 in his lone season with the Broncos, both tops in the West Coast Conference, and earned first-team All-WCC honors. He stole 15 bases without being caught, and he had more walks (31) than strikeouts (29).^[3]

Professional Career

Minor Leagues

When Daniel Nava graduated from college, he went undrafted and signed with the Chico Outlaws of the Golden Baseball League. The Outlaws cut him after a tryout, only to bring him back a year later to fill a void.^[3] In 2007 Nava hit 12 home runs for the Outlaws, with a .371 batting average and a 1.100 OPS.^[7] Nava was named the number one independent league prospect by Baseball America in 2007.^[7] Red Sox's assistant director of pro scouting, Jared Porter, recommended the Sox sign Nava from the Chico Outlaws in 2007.^[8] The Red Sox paid the Outlaws $1 for the rights to Nava, with an agreement that the Outlaws would receive an additional $1,499 if the Red Sox kept Nava after spring training.^[9]

In 2008, he played for low Single-A Lancaster. He hit .341 with 10 home runs and 59 RBI in 85 games. His on-base plus slugging percentage was .948.^[10] In 2009, he hit .339 at high Single-A Salem before being called up to Double-A Portland where he batted .364 with four home runs and an exceptional 25-to-12 walk-to-strikeout ratio. His OPS was .991.^[11]

In 2010, Daniel Nava spent two months in AAA.^[12] At that time he was quoted as saying "I know I have the talent and the ability, and I can keep playing at the next level," he said. "If I didn't think I could, I would have been like, ‘You know what? There’s no point.’ … I definitely thought I could perform and perform well. That’s why I kept on going. Quitting’s just not much of an option for me."^[3]

Boston Red Sox (2010-present)

Nava made his Major League debut with the Boston Red Sox on June 12, 2010 at Fenway Park as the starting left fielder against the Philadelphia Phillies. He was called up to help with the team's outfield situation, with Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida on the disabled list and Josh Reddick optioned to the minor leagues for more playing time.

Taking the advice of Red Sox radio broadcaster Joe Castiglione, who before the game told him to swing as hard as he could on the first pitch because "that's the only first pitch in the majors you'll ever see," Nava did swing at the first pitch he saw and hit a grand slam off Phillies pitcher Joe Blanton into the Red Sox bullpen. Nava is only the fourth player to have hit a grand slam in his first at-bat, joining Bill Duggleby in 1898, Jeremy Hermida in 2005 and Kevin Kouzmanoff in 2006. Nava is only the second player, after Kouzmanoff, to do so on the first pitch of his Major League career,^[13] and the first player in Major League Baseball history to achieve a grand slam on his first-ever MLB career at-bat while in interleague play

It is possible to take history and create mathematical odds of making the majors. But it's really about deciding you're all in and signing. At that point odds are irrelevant.

I am in question as to why there are negative comments towards Floridanfan.  He is only telling you how his son sees the process, he is fixed on his baseball career, he doesn't have to be thinking about what's next.

Odds, now I know that I have mentioned this before, Greg Maddux's dad was a dealer in Las Vegas. Maddux claims he used odds to pitch his game, taught by his dad.   I can believe it.

In 2006 when we were in Omaha, Mr.TPM and DK and I hopped on a bus back to downtown hotel. He was off that night and we went to watch a game.  On the bus we met a few of the players from Oregon, one of them being Mitch Canham.  Oregon was considered the underdog that year, they beat the odds and won a national championship.  That was their first.

When Dave reported to the Cape after Omaha, one of his catchers was Mitch, what about those odds, meeting one of your future teammates on a bus in Omaha.

One question, why would a team consider drafting and paying a pitcher who is max 85 when there are many in milb who pitch well above 90, get the job done and never reach the ML field?

BTW, I hope that some of you have taken the opportunity to check out the site, very good concept. Who can mentor a young player better than an experienced player?

Thought I'd share a recent video of Bum, Jr. talking about what it takes to get to the highest levels and how the top players have that mental edge.  If you want to improve your odds, it is not only work ethic and talent but what is between your ears.. toughness.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYw7ayZJCNI

The first time we saw Rusty I believe was his sophomore year.  He topped out in the upper 70s.  The next time we saw him and the first time for me personally was before his senior year in high school.  He topped out in the upper 80s.

Not that often do I get overly excited about a smaller pitcher throwing mid to upper 80s, but this time was an exception.  First of all knowing how much he had improved and seeing how easy it looked for him and watching him make some very good prospects look silly at the plate.... Not trying to act like a genius, but I knew this was a very special kid.  One that was going to make a name for himself. Unusual is something I always look for in a baseball player.  Rusty was definitely unusual in a very good way.

The one thing that really stood out to me in that interview is Rusty's passion for the game.  Something I learned a long time ago.... People tend to do the things best that they love doing the most.

I do think Bum Sr. maybe gets a little overly proud at times, but then again he has good reason to be. Hell I'm proud of Rusty, too, and I'm not even related to him.

I have been lucky to have known many outstanding young players before they became professionals.  It has amazed me how many of these kids are just plain great kids.  You know, before there was a Mike Trout Major League star, there was a Mike Trout young kid.  I know it's off the topic, but I for one think baseball just keeps getting better because of the quality of the young people entering the game.  Before anyone says anything... I've also met a few that aren't such great kids. But most are just plain good people with or without baseball. I think baseball is in good shape.

Hey Bum! Awesome interview by Rusty! I love how big his eyes get when he shares his passion for the game.

Regarding the odds... I know this is a misplaced analogy in many respects, however it does have a foundation in Human Nature.

At the beginning of WWII at the time of the D-Day invasion as the ships were sailing across the Atlantic, the Soldiers were presented with the opportunity to purchase Life Insurance for themselves. Very few completed an application. Did they know the odds of them dying on the shore of one of those beaches? The odds that their loved ones would receive a form of monetary compensation if they failed to return home? Did they calculate the odds of making it out of the landing craft?

Some things are best not to dwell upon, particularly topics that focus on our failure to live up to our own expectations. The will to live, or the will to find success.

There is no comparison to what our brave forefathers endured on Omaha Beach, and my point is not to minimize in any way the sacrifice that they made for our country.

But it is none the less illustrative of Human Nature. Those that focus only on the objective at hand with fewer mental distractions and luck (yes luck) are more likely to reach their destination and achieve their individual goal.

Burn the ships at the shore! Plenty of time for building new ships to complete our journey, once our objectives have been satisfied, to the best of our abilities and good fortune.

I've always advocated Living the Baseball Dream. On this site, I've been busted for it before.  So I'm delighted to see many others say Go For It! After all, if all the young people acted like a bunch of old fogies, the mlb wouldn't have anyone to draft (at least from the US). They would have dropped baseball for advanced classes and early graduation while on their way to a "marketable degree". 

My older son, with his degree in technical theater, minor in stage management, is happy as a clam with his liberal arts degree. He just married his sweetheart, and is living the life in NYC. Making enough money to actually save some (woot), and planning to move back here when it's time to have a family, (Yes!!)  

So for those of us with kids who are, umm. let's say less academically inclined, but creative or (in the case of my youngest) athletically talented, plan B may be murky. Yet, we support both boys in using their gifts and talents and working towards goals they were both discouraged from pursuing. (by well meaning adults) The youngest is still working hard, despite a few setbacks, dreaming big. Who knows what's in his future?  

Great quote and a good illustration of the merit of a "no plan B" mentality.  I'm always torn on this issue as I agree with the above but also think it is important for young players to make strides in preparation for the day when the game tells them they can no longer play.  Even for those who reach the highest levels, they will likely be quite young when that day comes.  What steps will they have taken along the way to assure they can pursue other passions in a manner that will allow them to provide for themselves and perhaps a family?

Striving to separate and do both, I think, is a great mental approach.  Easier said than done and thus makes for a great discussion.

I think a large part of the problem in this discussion is the use of the term "odds".  The "odds" that most are referring to here are "observational".  By that I mean they take into account what has happened in the past.  i.e.  How many high school baseball players in a given window of observation went on to play baseball in college.  I think PG Staff and others are objecting to using these "observational" odds as "predictive" odds for any given kid.  I would tend to agree.  The "odds" that my son will play baseball at the next level are either ZERO or 100%.  He will either make it or he won't.  He can't "5%" play at the next level. 

Alden,

You nailed it! I like it.  What are "your" odds? Either Zero or 100%! Either you do or you don't.

Part of what bothers me when we talk about odds is that it seems to carry some kind of negative message.  Like those that don't make it will end up being destroyed for the rest of their lives.  How many of us have failed to reach our goals?  How many might have been better off had we known the odds of achieving those goals ahead of time?

I like people who are willing to take on challenges. Even the most challenging things.  I can't imagine living without a few thrills along the way. IMO Kids should chase their dreams until they decide to change their dream. I believe those type kids learn things that others will never know.  Where would this world be if everyone relied on the odds against achieving great things.

Think about those that became World champions in individual sports like Boxing, Wrestling, Tennis, etc.  There is only one out of however many there are. But there will always be ONE!  It will never be a person who looked at the odds and went another direction. To me there is nothing negative in giving it all you got to accomplish your goals.  There is something negative about giving up because of the odds.

Actually when I started this thread, I figured people would disagree with what some people believe is my warped thinking.  Then again, I knew certain people would think the same way.  I had no doubt as to how coach May would look at this.  It actually makes me feel good that so many that post here are believers in "shooting for the moon". BTW, this does not pertain to just baseball.  I wish every kid would try to be what he wants to be. I don't suppose there is anything wrong with playing it safe though.

One last thing about odds. When it comes to sports anyway, how often are the odds wrong?  What were the odds last year at this time that the Red Sox would be World Champions in 2013?  Seems like the Red Sox odds should have been 30 to 1 based on 30 MLB clubs.  Of course, you have to consider the Cubs, so maybe the odds would be 29 to 1. 

Not meaning to brag or anything, but I can hold two thoughts in my head......to shoot for the moon, if I wish, and understand the odds for success........ at the same time.

Doesn't make me better or smarter or more courageous than anyone else. If a person is not able to shoot for the moon and understand the chances at the same time, then I agree they should not.

Lots of industries are built on selling dreams. Lots of people enjoy chasing dreams.I do not mean to rain on those parades.

Sports betting odds are published with the sole purpose of trying to balance the house's books, no?

The number of high school righties who have topped out at 85 and been drafted, compared to all high school righties who have been drafted, is quantifiable data...whether anyone wants to look at it, or it might be a dream-killer, or whatever.

Does that help to explain the distinction?

Alden, you and I have different understandings of what "odds" means.

To me, the odds on whether a high school righty who tops out at 85 will be drafted, tells me the chances that yes he will be drafted (100%)  or no he won't be drafted (0%). If the odds are 10%, it doesn't mean that each kid will be 10% drafted (whatever that means). It is a predictor based on available data that 10 out of 100 will be drafted. Maybe 11 will be drafted, maybe 2 will, it is just a predictor based on historical data.

Not directed to you, but in general, one of the industries that sells dreams is youth marketing. I would be interested to know. What do y'all do when a top baseball school that would appear to be beyond your kid's skill set invites him to a camp with temptations of roster spots available? Or what do you do if you get a flyer that screams "50 MLB Scouts Guaranteed to Attend!!" Do you let the kid automatically just chase his dream? Or do you figure out some informal odds before you plunk down your $500+?

(No reference to regular posters on HSBBW intended or suggested)

What do you do when a college markets a special summer academic program to your kids with *wink-wink* the suggestion that this would be a perfect credential to get him/her into a top school? Feed the dream if little Johnnie or Janie says it is a dream, or assess the practicality?

What do you do when your kid says a fill-in-the-blank CWS perennial school is his dream, and (to borrow from another poster) he has Ripple talent and Champagne dreams? Tell him to go balls to the wall, heck be damned, follow your dream, no Plan B, screw the odds?

I do not intend for this to sound challenging. Really interested in responses. Our family cannot afford...financially or through opportunity cost....to let the kids chase every dream without assessing the prospects....."odds".

No, that's not how it works.

Or, stated another way, let me know the next time you're hosting a home poker game.

Wow, a thread with all the great contributors, what a good one. Floridafan, TPM, Jerry, CD, Coach May, Bum, RJM…great reading for a long offseason. These people have been there done that.

For my son, he had a plan B all along. Took care of things in school. He knew the odds of a catcher - with a PG rating of 7, a lifetime amateur BA of around .300, and 4 collegiate home runs at a D2 school getting an opportunity to play professional baseball were very slim.

But I believe he got the opportunity he did by saying I am second – to the pitching staffs he supported throughout the years. That and being in the right place at the right time. Over 20 pitchers caught in the minors now, with more yet to get there.  17 was the first catcher in the United States for one Miami Marlin Jose Fernandez – and the team rode him and another excellent pitcher to the Florida state championship 17’s Senior year.

Commitment to the team has been the way he goes about things as quoted in these articles:

The Senior catcher has one goal for his senior season with the University of Tampa baseball team: return to the national championship… “I wouldn’t want anything else to happen. If I could be a part of that and help in any way I can for the team, which would be my ultimate goal. This season being my last, it would be a great note to go out on.”  

And go out they did….D2 Natty Champs baby.

And how does he really feel about the guys with all the money?

"I'm always talking to (pitchers) about their pitches, how they're feeling on a particular day, how we're going to go about attacking hitters. I just try to take as much information as I can and apply it to the game, so it's easier on them on the mound, so they don't have to think as much. That's my main goal, to just kind of let them not think too much. I'll take that and try to think for them. We're working together. It's kind of a chemistry you have to have with one another. That's the only way it's going to work."

Now he is plying his trade as a Non Drafted Free Agent. Day to day is what we say. His rookie season saw as many as 9 bullpen sessions per day, 6 days a week in 95/95 humidity. He got on the field for a few games. Caught 3 of the MLB team starting pitcher rehab sessions on a routine basis and was well received. “Do whatever they ask me to dad.” At this point he says, “I have everything to gain and very little to lose, so I am all in.”

And he also knows that the only thing that may have separated him from a Jeff May was geography and a little more pitching. Love you Coach May and in the end our young men will be better off for facing the bear and taking a huge bite out of it.

For 17, he was always aware of the odds and the odds at each level don’t get better, they get worse.  And you change them through hard work, all while being prepared to do something else.

The point I am making about "odds" is that the numbers refer to populations.  Parents are interested not in populations but one kid...theirs.  He will either make it (100%) or he won't (0%).  That said, I believe kids should be told the truth about their abilities along the way.  The "truth" is obviously different for a 12 year old middle schooler than it is for a 17year old senior.  And there are way too many "experts" willing to take your money and tell you whatever "truth" you want to hear.

That fact does not imply that at any given point in time an individual player has either a 0% or 100% chance of making it, though.  If you're trying to make decisions about the future today, you have to assess the probability of various outcomes, and basing your decisions on a binary outcome of either he will or he won't isn't going to help you make intelligent decisions.

To put in personal terms, my son is a sophomore playing HS baseball.  He therefore has a non-zero chance of playing MLB, a different but higher chance of playing MiLB, a different but higher still chance of playing college ball, etc.  We make decisions on his baseball endeavors accounting for all these chances, with very little weight given to the pro outcomes given the relatively long odds.

I agree!!

So what do we as parents do? Maybe we don't go get spreadsheets, but in our own way we try to assess the prospects or "odds". (Edit: I think jacjac is saying the same thing in a different way--I also agree with jacjac's post)

Maybe I should have stated this earlier:

1. I think when a youngster is trying to choose between options...if he is fortunate to have them....he should get all the information he/she can about the comparative likelihood for success before deciding whether to go with the surer thing or the longer shot.

2. I think once a youngster has committed to a course of action...whether it is the surer thing or the longer shot... he should go all out, 100%, to try to achieve success.

3. I think 1 and 2 have absolutely nothing to do with each other

I'm not sure what the rush is to start a career.  Minor leaguers who wash up are still in their 20's.  There's plenty of time to flush a pension fund.  When you're 70 years old, would you rather have $200 bucks a month more in savings or $2,000,000 in memories?  (How many 20-somethings save anyway.)  Life is the journey, not the destination.

So if you have some odds what do you do with them? Not everyone here sees the world the same. Let's say a kid is told its over after signing at eighteen and spending ten years in the minors. But he's offered a job coaching in the minors for 30k. Some people might look at having washed out and starting college at twenty-eight as failure. Others might consider being offered a minor league coaching job as living a dream as a career baseball man.

Great point RJM!!!