34 player rosters-one opinion

I also saw this article on Twitter. It’s almost total BS IMO. My guess is that it is PR spin written by the NCAA. @infielddad is correct about his skepticism of this ruling creating competitive balance. It will do no such thing. This ruling is only good for the very best players in college baseball and the most well funded programs in college baseball. It’s not good in general

@adbono posted:

This ruling is only good for the very best players in college baseball and the most well funded programs in college baseball. It’s not good in general

I agree with the above. Supposedly conferences might be dictating their own set of rules for competitive balance.

It has to be finalized soon and it's complicated.

To be continued.

To add a bit in support of adbono, the 2024 CWS was 4 SEC and 4 ACC teams.

Current football rankings (top 10) are dominated by the SEC and BIG10. On the baseball side, rosters get reduced and scholarship numbers get increased. For football, rosters and scholarships increase for both.

This doesn’t even consider NIL being grown at the power conferences.

The SEC and BIG10 commissioners just held a meeting. Lawyers were present guiding and comments which might have “collusion” or antitrust implications.

This just doesn’t compute to fostering a broader and more competitive landscape for college sports…especially baseball.

As evidenced by the House settlement, the Power 4 are looking out for themselves. They are so arrogant they are “powering” non-Power4 conferences who are not part of the House lawsuit and who didn’t create the NIL landscape to pay hundreds of millions of the settlement amount of $2.7B!

I agree that all of this only benefits top programs and players.  But, as was mentioned somewhere on the other thread today, I personally think that it's a good idea that the roster limit has to be followed in the fall and not just the spring season.  As someone said, it will mean that coaches can't just bring in 45 players and cut a bunch, they will have to choose more carefully and work to develop the ones who are there.

Or do you all just think they'll find ways to cut some of the 34 and add transfers in January?

  I’m on Twitter because I help with our recruiting. The comments on this topic are out of touch with reality.
  IMO the consequences of what is coming are : less competitive balance (the rich get richer and further distance themselves from the pack), less opportunity to play D1 baseball for the majority of players (smaller rosters), less opportunities for all players to play college baseball (D1 players that are cut in order for their school to get down to 34 players will displace other players as they relocate), fewer schools will continue to fund a baseball program (some won’t want to opt in to sharing revenue with the players, some won’t want to continue a program that has no chance to win, some will discontinue baseball as a “cost saving” measure), the use of the transfer portal will continue to be how roster holes are filled (most staffs would rather manage a roster than develop players that are at risk of leaving). I could go on all day.
  College baseball is being restructured to better serve MLB. That’s the bottom line. The pending changes will make upper level D1 baseball more competitive than ever. Just what MLB wants. It will be much easier to identify the top prospects if they are (almost) all in 3 conferences. But what’s good for MLB should not dictate the way college baseball is structured. College baseball should be structured in a way that’s good for the institutions AND good for the participants. I would argue that it hasn’t been that way for a long time. In my lifetime everything has favored the institutions over the players. But (with the exception of the ability for premier players to get paid to play college baseball) what is coming will make things even worse for the majority of players. I get tired very quickly with the spin that’s being put on this by the few that will benefit.

@adbono posted:

  College baseball is being restructured to better serve MLB. That’s the bottom line. The pending changes will make upper level D1 baseball more competitive than ever. Just what MLB wants. It will be much easier to identify the top prospects if they are (almost) all in 3 conferences.

I have mentioned this awhile ago, but I’ll say it again, the mlb mmay be cutting their own legs off.  The less kids that can play in college, the less kids may dream about playing in the bigs, the less kids ( as they turn into adults) will want to watch baseball.  Kids are going to turn to football or other sports…. Just something to think about.

@Dadof3 posted:

I have mentioned this awhile ago, but I’ll say it again, the mlb mmay be cutting their own legs off.  The less kids that can play in college, the less kids may dream about playing in the bigs, the less kids ( as they turn into adults) will want to watch baseball.  Kids are going to turn to football or other sports…. Just something to think about.

I agree with you on this point. That’s why I have repeatedly said that these changes are not good for the overall state of the game.

Looking at some of the variables required to build a roster,  Fall Roster Size should fall between 39 and 42.

Simple reason:

Impact of Head Coaching Changes, there is an average of 36 to 40 coaching changes annually.

New HC will need to re-evaluate his incoming roster that was recruited by the previous HC.  He will quickly bring in experienced players from transfer portal and/or JUCO that match he playing philosophy.

Note, there are other reasons to have an expanded fall roster, but this is the most glaring.

What happens to the kids that are cut then?

I think smaller rosters are a logical consequence of the transfer portal and easy changing of your college program.

With the easy switching to another program the top programs no longer need to stockpile "projects", they can just use other programs kind of like minor league.

Players also have less incentive to go for roster spot 35 in a top program, they are probably better off going for a slightly lesser program where they can play and then try to switch to a top program in case of them dominating in the smaller program instead of going to a top program and trying to develope there into playing time with the risk being overtaken not only by new freshmen like it used to be but also by transfers from other programs.

For the smaller programs I think it is a two edged sword. On the positive side they can get talented players who don't want to risk not playing or being cut by a top program but on the other hand they will also lose that talent faster and get cannibalized by bigger programs.

I see the opposite.   I'm an Arkansas fan.   They had 51 on the Fall roster.  Cutting to 40 will pretty easy and you can see the guys who don't belong.  Cutting to 34 is a whole different deal.  That is 6 guys who would start at Missouri St, La Tech, etc.  So instead of being on the bench at Arkansas getting 8 innings they are a contributor at a mid major.  Schools like Arkansas can dominate the midweeks because of their massive depth.  A 34 man roster cuts into that and guys that would normally just sit, will now be forced onto the mound.  The key to this is to make the roster 34 in the Fall.  If they don't do that you will just teams continue to over sign and then just cut more players after the Fall.  That benefits no one but the schools.   

I agree that this may just lead to those mid majors getting cannibalized, but that is the state of the game.  FWIW, Arkansas lost a commit to a mid major last week.  This wasn't by choice of the school, the dad and kid had enough sense to understand that he might be out and they took things into their own hands instead of waiting around until July.   From what I understand there will be a few more do the same.     

If you are scoring at home, that makes it:   @d-mac 1 - @Dominik85 0

@adbono posted:

If you are scoring at home, that makes it:   @d-mac 1 - @Dominik85 0

Not sure what that post means

@Dominik85 posted:

Not sure what that post means

It means that IMO his take is better than yours.

@Dadof3 posted:

What happens to the kids that are cut then?

Cuts usually are made directly after the championship season (exit interviews).  Also discussed at that time is the draft with both  the players and HS committs who might go pro. That gives the coaching staff a blueprint of what is needed for the next season, taking  injuries into consideration as well as high school committs who will get drafted.

A coach can add to the roster for fall practice.  They don't replace counters (scholarship players).  There are some coaches who bring in much more than needed for fall (51?) practice. They may be cut from the team after practice but still enrolled at the school.   This becomes confusing for parents of current players as well as those beginning the recruiting journey.

Keep in mind that final roster isnt in place until the championship season begins.

There are lots of coaches who bring in wayyyy more than needed and IMO that's just ridiculous.

Last I heard, the roster max 2025 is 40. In reality a coach really doesnt need more than 34,35.

Dadof3, hope that this helps you and others.

JMO

@TPM posted:

Cuts usually are made directly after the championship season (exit interviews).

I think he meant, what happens to the kids who are cut after the fall?

@d-mac posted:

Cutting to 40 will pretty easy and you can see the guys who don't belong.

Can everyone see this?  Even those 9 kids themselves who will be cut after the fall?  If so, what are they doing there?

If everyone were well-advised and went to a program where they would get lots of time, would this just not happen?

@anotherparent

Who actually gets cut in the fall? Scholarship players or walkons?

Would you have your son walk on to an SEC program if you knew that there were going to be 51and the coaches never indicated that to him?

As I mentioned lots of coaches will bring in guys he will cut. Then they get to keep the tshirt and the coach had 4 teams practicing with no one sitting.

@anotherparent posted:

I think he meant, what happens to the kids who are cut after the fall?

yes, meaning, if the fall is limited to 35 and spring 35 that’s a good thing versus the fall @ 51 then having to cut down to 34.  

again, that’s my speculation.  Good that you don’t have to worry about getting cut.

@Dadof3 posted:

yes, meaning, if the fall is limited to 35 and spring 35 that’s a good thing versus the fall @ 51 then having to cut down to 34.  

again, that’s my speculation.  Good that you don’t have to worry about getting cut.

One doesn’t have to worry if you have done your homework and your player receives a scholarship.

All of this is due to allowing 5th and 6th years. You won't have to worry about that.

Again, FWIW, the 40  max limit was special legislature granted for this year.

I don’t see the fuss with 34 player rosters. It was 35 before COVID. A player doesn’t want to be # 21-34. He’s unlikely to get on the field. During recruiting a player has to be looking for the program where he can be one of the top twenty players. A player who goes into a program blindly with the attitude “just give me a shot” is likely to fail.

@TPM posted:

One doesn’t have to worry if you have done your homework and your player receives a scholarship.

All of this is due to allowing 5th and 6th years. You won't have to worry about that.

Again, FWIW, the 40  max limit was special legislature granted for this year.

Agreed.  39 to 42 would be feasible for the fall.  Note,  there are too many moving parts to limit the fall season to 34 players.

Head Coaching changes which has been ~13% annually post covid

https://collegebaseballinsight...l-coaching-carousel/

The new coach needs the flexibility to bring in student athletes that meet their style of play.

@anotherparent posted:

I think he meant, what happens to the kids who are cut after the fall?

Can everyone see this?  Even those 9 kids themselves who will be cut after the fall?  If so, what are they doing there?

If everyone were well-advised and went to a program where they would get lots of time, would this just not happen?

If a coach from Arkansas or insert any other top school, contacts you and says they want you, I don't think those players see it.  Maybe once on campus they do.  When they are healthy and not getting any innings or batting last in every scrimmage, the writing should be on the wall.

@anotherparent posted:

I think he meant, what happens to the kids who are cut after the fall?

Can everyone see this?  Even those 9 kids themselves who will be cut after the fall?  If so, what are they doing there?

If everyone were well-advised and went to a program where they would get lots of time, would this just not happen?

Kids/parents often get very good advice  - and don’t listen to it. Especially if it isn’t what they want to hear. It’s talked about a lot on here, but what everyone should be striving for is the right fit. The right fit almost always results in a good experience. But finding the right fit can be difficult and can take a lot of work. The people that do that work have a completely different experience than the ones that don’t. This is one constant among the ever changing rules of college baseball.

FWIW, I posted what I did to Dadof3 because his son is a 2027.

Hopefully the process will eventually settle down to a new normal.

@adbono posted:

... The right fit almost always results in a good experience. But finding the right fit can be difficult and can take a lot of work ...

As a parent of a college freshman (HS class 2024) ... I will offer some reflection:

• just getting to the point where both the player & parent understand what "right fit" means - takes a lot of effort, travel, family conversation, AND time
  
  
• defining your criteria for what is a "right fit" is personal (specific to you and your son)
  
  
• people will try to convince you (your son) that a particular verbal offer (opportunity) is a "fit", when it is NOT. 
  
  
• parents should be fully engaged in the "fit test" ... most kids will chase the shiny object; while travel coaches and recruiting advisors will be constrained and biased by their network of connections

@mjd-dad posted:

As a parent of a college freshman (HS class 2024) ... I will offer some reflection:

• just getting to the point where both the player & parent understand what "right fit" means - takes a lot of effort, travel, family conversation, AND time
  
  
• defining your criteria for what is a "right fit" is personal (specific to you and your son)
  
  
• people will try to convince you (your son) that a particular verbal offer (opportunity) is a "fit", when it is NOT.
  
  
• parents should be fully engaged in the "fit test" ... most kids will chase the shiny object; while travel coaches and recruiting advisors will be constrained and biased by their network of connections

Excellent follow up to my post!

@mjd-dad posted:

• people will try to convince you (your son) that a particular verbal offer (opportunity) is a "fit", when it is NOT.
  
  
• parents should be fully engaged in the "fit test" ... most kids will chase the shiny object; while travel coaches and recruiting advisors will be constrained and biased by their network of connections

Any examples of what they say that isn’t a fit?

We have a very close friend whose son,  who played at a premier HS school here in South Florida was struggling to find a D1 in state. His dream as well as his Dad's dream was to play at one of the big 3 D1 programs in state. A really excellent catcher with a hot bat, he was considered small for his position. He began to get JUCO offers once he began going to the right venues. That was a possibility.

The clock was ticking. He had received d3 out of state offers but his tuition, room and board, etc. was covered from the Bright Futures academic lottery program and FL prepay. Dad called me for help and we made a plan.

By this past spring he was committed to an excellent instate D2, close to home. I just got a report from my friend that the coach approached him at a scrimmage and said he was just doing awesome.

My point, once he decided to stop chasing the shiny object he was able to find the right fit.

Mom and Dad are very happy and Dad isn't worried about him getting cut this fall.

One more thing to remember. Many D1 programs bring in more than needed in fall. Coaches already know who will be on staff but they need bodies for fall practice. This is an important question to ask the coaching staff,  especially those walking on to a program.

@Dadof3 posted:

Any examples of what they say that isn’t a fit?

So for the most part my son's school has been a good fit and most things they said are as we were told.

One thing we asked was if they assisted with summer league placement. The answer was a definite, yes, absolutely. My son has a particular league that he wants to try and get into. That league suggested players have their coaches contact teams in the league before October 1st. So he went to his coaches with the contact information for those teams before October 1st. His coaches responded that he would need to "earn it". His fall season has ended and he was consistently on the "travel" squad, had his post season coach-meeting and was told they like what they see and expect to contribute in the spring. Now from the sounds of it, many of the summer league teams he was hoping to play for have already locked up their rosters.

It would have been nice to have been told, "we'll help you with getting on a summer league, but at our convenience and discretion"

We now know...what to expect in terms of their assistance with eventually finding a spot at a 4-year program because we will assume it will be similar to the way they "assist" with summer league placement.

What is he going to do for summer now?  That’s really good to know

You might still hold out hope for summer placement.  It is early, and rosters are very preliminary.  Players move around, some get injured, some withdraw from summer play because of pitch count, etc.  I think your player might still have a chance.

What do others think?

@Momball11

Coaches work with specific summer programs and where they send a player is  based on their discretion, not necessarily where the player wants to go.

Your son should be focusing on the season, do well and then approach the coach at one point about placement.

@Dadof3 posted:

What is he going to do for summer now?  That’s really good to know

That's TBD. I imagine he'll find a place somewhere, just maybe not nearby. Not going to give up yet, but as a juco guy...we are hoping he can be in a league closer to home, so he can get on the radar for the in-state 4-year programs. His state of residency has changed between where he graduated HS to what it is now.

@RHP_Parent posted:

You might still hold out hope for summer placement.  It is early, and rosters are very preliminary.  Players move around, some get injured, some withdraw from summer play because of pitch count, etc.  I think your player might still have a chance.

What do others think?

Yes, this is still possible for sure. Some of the coaches said they will reach out if a slot opens up.

@TPM posted:

@Momball11

Coaches work with specific summer programs and where they send a player is  based on their discretion, not necessarily where the player wants to go.

Your son should be focusing on the season, do well and then approach the coach at one point about placement.

This is true and the reason why we had asked. We noticed for my son's school that the majority of players play summer ball nearby, which for the majority of players is basically "home". I'm sure something will work out for the summer. It would just be nice to have him within driving distance for part of the year instead of flight distance.

@Momball11

Sent you a pm.

@Momball11 posted:

That's TBD. I imagine he'll find a place somewhere, just maybe not nearby. Not going to give up yet, but as a juco guy...we are hoping he can be in a league closer to home, so he can get on the radar for the in-state 4-year programs. His state of residency has changed between where he graduated HS to what it is now.

Your son will get on the radar of 4 year schools in the Fall of 2025.   That is pretty much how JUCO works.  The Fall is for getting the Sophomores placed or getting on radars. 

@d-mac posted:

Your son will get on the radar of 4 year schools in the Fall of 2025.   That is pretty much how JUCO works.  The Fall is for getting the Sophomores placed or getting on radars.

Oh I'm not expecting any active recruiting to happen until sophomore year and my son plans to stay with his current school for both years. But to say a juco player isn't going to be on anyone's radar until the fall of their sophomore is something I will politely disagree with. The baseball network is small and there's always someone watching. My son turned down 4-year opportunities and those coaches specifically told him they would be keeping an eye out for him.

@Momball11 posted:

Oh I'm not expecting any active recruiting to happen until sophomore year and my son plans to stay with his current school for both years. But to say a juco player isn't going to be on anyone's radar until the fall of their sophomore is something I will politely disagree with. The baseball network is small and there's always someone watching. My son turned down 4-year opportunities and those coaches specifically told him they would be keeping an eye out for him.

You are certainly free to disagree with @d-mac, but he is right. Unless a relationship is involved, the more desirable summer collegiate leagues want to see proven production from JuCo players from their JuCo season. Until then JuCo players are considered unproven - regardless of who may have also recruited them.