After rec and pay to play travel/showcase ball, playing opportunities are purely based on the coaches perceptions of current or future benefits to the specific team or organization. Where benefits means opportunity to win now or in the near future, and the athlete is a cultural fit (meaning the coach likes or is indifferent to the athlete).
I feel the above statement has always been true from HS through college with pro ball being a little different (everyone gets an opportunity, but the size of the opportunity is proportional to the size of the signing bonus).
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Also in HS through college the coach’s livelihood is directly associated with winning. They will do whatever they can within the defined rules to ensure self preservation (as will most anyone who’s a primary income for a family). Some programs, are better at communicating and some could care less… The kid has a great D1 experience, but not everything that was verbalized during recruiting materialized (think might happen, not will happed when being courted).
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The tools for both the college coaches and athletes have changed since my involvement, both have a lot more flexibility. From my perspective (opinion) the changes mostly benefit the top performers (teams and players) - is that wrong, or is the goal parity?
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I think picking a school for baseball without understanding or having good feel for where the athlete will rank among his peers is problematic. Since HS only the top 9 players available at that moment see the field - nothing has changed in college but the improved skills of the competition.
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IMO, there are only 2 reasons to play college ball: 1) to enhance the college experience. 2) attempting to become a professional baseball player. If option 2 is not realistic, then the focus should be on getting an education and going somewhere the athlete will see the field (somewhere their skillset is well above the fall cut line).
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This is another reason I like juco, it’s a calibration method and the athlete will understand the level of commitment required to be successful. Less surprises at the next step…