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@jacjacatk posted:

Schools do, in fact, shut down for influenza.  We just haven't had a flu pandemic, it's been localized clusters that have shut down in recent years.

I haven't seen solid info on transmissibility in kids where community spread is close to what it is in the US. I am personally familiar with a number of MS/HS athletes that have tested positive in my school cluster.

What I have seen suggests that HS/College age kids are no less likely to transmit it than adults.

And, sure, fatality rates in elementary/middle school kids are miniscule, but it climbs to more flu-like rates in the HS+ age groups, and there are 74 million people under 18 in the US. A tiny percentage of that is still a real number of excess deaths, and that's before considering other health implications.

When I stated schools don’t shut down for influenza I meant it’s not he norm. A lot more kids died from the flu this year than COVID. When discussing schools opening and athletes it’s two separate discussions. School kids can distance. Athletes can’t. 

I don’t see how football works out. Players from pro down to high school may not be in the vulnerable group for death. But I could see rosters becoming depleted by positive tests. 

Baseball has MLB to observe for a test run. If MLB can’t get through the season there won’t be fall ball. Hopefully, the situation will be much different by the spring season. It would suck for freshmen to come into college ball with so many players returning and not having the fall to prove themselves.

FWIW, a stat my school district is touting for their repointing is over 300 positive kids under 18 in our county. Zero hospitalizations. Not one. This data is probably 2 weeks old now, but that was the point they were hammering home. 

There are also two neighborhoods accounting for 75% of our cases over the past 4 weeks. Those elementary schools will be virtual to start the year and the older kids will be virtual and can return to school when things slow down in their community. 

This senescent, yet scally-ish thread has taught me much.

The graybeards among us may remember fondly, as I do, the Dick and Jane books.  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_and_Jane)

Since Dick and Jane helped me learn how to read and, therefor, also helped me learn how to write (not well, perhaps, but as pedantically as possible, whenever possible, in the manner of, say, the The Blacklist's Raymond Reddington's dialogue), I will lean on their books--metaphorically, of course--to illustrate how much I have learned.

I've learned that Dick and Jane really care about what they know, but care even more about what they believe, whether it follows the science or follows the money.  

Dick and Jane also know truths that directly contradict the truths that Tom and Harry know. However, Tom and Harry's truths actually corroborate Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice's truths.  This would be a good time to also mention Bill and Ted Jr.'s truths which, excellent though they might be, are simply too adventurous for Dick and Jane.

I've learned that Dick and Jane like to cite studies, etc. they find on their favorite internet sites that prove how exclusively right they are. 

When those studies don't agree with information that Jules and JIm have gleaned from their own studies, Dick and Jane think that Jules and Jim are, at best, simply wrong, and at worst, completely evil.  

Interestingly, the studies sometimes actually agree with each other but Dick and Jane look at the results as they are reflected in a mirror. We all know what happens then, but Dick and Jane won't back down until the other party reads their own results reflected in a mirror. Both groups do this, usually at different times.  It's most amusing ,though, when they do it at the same time, as we have seen in the press conference clips we saw above, a bit earlier in the thread.

Changing the subject, I'm beginning to wonder if certain baseball strategies can be broken down along political lines.

Do Democrats like to steal a base, or just play to it?  Are Republicans more likely to sacrifice bunt or hit and run? Do left-leaning Libertarians fare better against right-handers? Do blue states make better calls, or are they just sad? Do red states get better jumps on tough flyballs?

But back to Dick and Jane and the inevitable descent into catastrophic contretemps.

See Dick wear a mask.  See Jane yell loudly at him: "You lily-livered, febrile-minded poltroon!" See Dick yell back: "You anti-the-aged betrayer of souls with underlying conditions!"

Jane: "Stay home then!"

Dick: "My kids are still in school!"

Jane: "You should've kept eating your Wheaties!"

Dick: "Have you no vices, no weakness towards fudge and bacon?"

Jane: "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVDBuOMgz_g"

And, finally, as the OP (not Opie) of this thread, stunned by its novel viral proportions, let me just add, with the deepest of apologies to Walter White, I mean Whitman:

I Celebrate this thread, and sing the spread,

And what I assume, you shall not assume,
For every virus belonging to me as good doesn't belong to you.

I zoom and invite my soul,
I binge and loafe with my Corona, at my ease observing a stream of Better Call Saul.

My untasting tongue, every clot of my blood, form'd from this soil, this air,
Born here of parents born there in Milan from parents the same, and their parents in Wuhan,
I, now more than fifty-some years old (wink) in perfect health (double wink) begin,
Hoping to cease not till death (for a long, long time).

Creeds and schools in abeyance,
Retiring back in March, sufficed at what they are, but never forgotten,
I harbor for good or bad, I permit to speak at every feverish hazard,
Nature without check with original energy.

Peace and health to you all, fellow HSBBWers. May our kids be back in school with their friends, readin', writin', and rithmetickin', and out on the ball fields, slinging strikes, running deep ones down, slappin' em in the gaps, turning two and goin' yard.

I swap my barbaric yawp over the roofs of the world!!

Last edited by smokeminside
@DanJ posted:

Boy, this is the thread that keeps on giving (and filling up my email inbox with notifications - need to disable those!).  We're nearing page 20 which is wholly exciting!  So much information being shared in this.  So many activities!  Ideas and opinions expressed.  Healthy debate and all that, right?!  

So let's do a quick show of hands.  For all the back and forth, charts and graphs, videos, peer-reviewed studies and memes, please raise your hand if your opinion has changed based on anything gifted to you in these 20ish pages.  I'd like to see all the people who were one way, who are now the other.  Surely with all this valuable information, many people have flipped sides, right?  I'd like everyone to see the fruits of their labor.  You did it!  You made a real difference via a high school baseball online forum!

I have had my mind changed, but not in a binary way.  I'd be willing to bet most people on this issue are not binary (i.e. shut everything down, or open up with no restrictions).  There has been a lot of useful information that has helped inform me.  The problem is that opinion is getting a little bit stronger as those who are opinionated have gone to attacking others.  That has also started to move my thoughts on how toxic our current environment is, and how unfortunate it is.... I really am bummed that many reasonable posters are leaving this thread...

I hope it does not get shut down.  There have been jabs from both sides and maybe one haymaker thrown but no damage done.  Some have taken a hiatus which may be needed at times.  I've learned a lot about people I have read and conversed with for years.  I never knew as much personal stuff as the past 3 months and definitely not their political or religious views because it was never allowed.  My mind has not been changed but I've been given more information, real or fake (I get to decide which is which) than anywhere else in my life.  It has been funny and sad, I've laughed and gotten mad.  But in the end it will all be good.  We have to move past the 25 mark or this was all for nothing.  I know I shouldn't click on it each morning but it is like some of my friends on facebook.  I need to unfriend them but everybody loves a good trainwreck in their life.  And this is definitely one.

@baseballhs posted:

Average life expectancy in the US: 78

Median Covid Death age: 80

This is a common misrepresentation of data.  Yes, from birth, the average life expectancy is 78.  However, if you reach the age of 70, your life expectancy is actually is 85 (man) or 87 (woman). If you are currently 80, then your life expectancy is 89 (man) or 90 (woman).  

So, it's not that people are being robbed of "only" 2 years of life, which is what those numbers imply.

This is a common misrepresentation of data.  Yes, from birth, the average life expectancy is 78.  However, if you reach the age of 70, your life expectancy is actually is 85 (man) or 87 (woman). If you are currently 80, then your life expectancy is 89 (man) or 90 (woman).  

So, it's not that people are being robbed of "only" 2 years of life, which is what those numbers imply.

You passed on an easier argument.  Baseballhs writes average life expectancy is 78 and the median covid death age is 80.  The median just means half of those that die are over age 80.  The average age of a person who dies from Covid mathematically would be lower than 78 (just logically).   WSJ article says 20% of deaths are those below 65 using some very conservative assumptions the average age of Covid deaths would be in the mid 70's but prob a touch lower. 

Two interesting stats from my search:  The median age of a person in the US is 38 and the most common age in the US is 57.

You passed on an easier argument.  Baseballhs writes average life expectancy is 78 and the median covid death age is 80.  The median just means half of those that die are over age 80.  The average age of a person who dies from Covid mathematically would be lower than 78 (just logically).   WSJ article says 20% of deaths are those below 65 using some very conservative assumptions the average age of Covid deaths would be in the mid 70's but prob a touch lower.

Sure, this too.  I had looked up the life expectancy tables a couple of months ago, because of what someone posted here; I never knew that you can easily find this data.   One of the things I have learned from this thread; I have learned a lot.  Changed my mind - who knows?  I think that most of us are less narrow that some people on here suggest, and I'd guess that the same is probably true for them. 

Fake news?  Looks real to me....  I'm sure it's just a one off.

FOX 35 News found this out after asking Orange County Health Officer Dr. Raul Pino whether two coronavirus victims who were in their 20s had any underlying conditions. One of his answers surprised us. 

 “The first one didn’t have any. He died in a motorcycle accident,” Pino said.
 
@DanJ posted:

... So much information being shared in this.  So many activities!  Ideas and opinions expressed.  Healthy debate and all that, right?!  

So let's do a quick show of hands.  For all the back and forth, charts and graphs, videos, peer-reviewed studies and memes, please raise your hand if your opinion has changed based on anything gifted to you in these 20ish pages.  I'd like to see all the people who were one way, who are now the other.  Surely with all this valuable information, many people have flipped sides, right?  I'd like everyone to see the fruits of their labor.  You did it!  You made a real difference via a high school baseball online forum!

Sarcasm noted   Still...

I like to think I am and always will be in learning mode.  Certainly no exception with this thread.  

For me, the thread is sort of reflective of where we are in our country today - we've taken a few steps backward in finding common ground with each other.  But, still, tons of good information here.  Kick out the hard right and hard left views and references and you have probably about as good a collection of Covid information, links and resources one could hope to find in one place.

I take in all viable information (and sift out the crap) and align it with what I already have stored.  Sometimes, it moves the needle a little.  Sometimes more.  Sometimes, it just reinforces my current set.  In my experience, if your needle is never moved, you're  probably mistaking that as "strong conviction".  

 

Question for our Conservative brethren:

A guy on a lefty podcast yesterday (Pod Save America) said something to the effect of this:  If you did a Venn diagram where one circle was people who believe that masks should not be worn and the pandemic is just a means to take down DJT, and a second circle was people who believe that Global Climate Change is a hoax, the circles would intersect almost perfectly.

True?

Fake news?  Looks real to me....  I'm sure it's just a one off.

FOX 35 News found this out after asking Orange County Health Officer Dr. Raul Pino whether two coronavirus victims who were in their 20s had any underlying conditions. One of his answers surprised us. 

 “The first one didn’t have any. He died in a motorcycle accident,” Pino said.
 

I don't care which side of the political party you sit with, this is sad but funny that someone with a PhD would state that a motorcycle death could have been Covid related.  This is why people don't believe the numbers on testing or deaths.  His answer that it is no big deal whether it is 99 or 100 is funny because you just proved it was 1 of the 2 you were discussing so it could be 50 or 100.  Why would people exaggerate this stuff?  Just be honest.  They died of Corona as the main contributor or not.  If they died of cancer then say cancer or an automobile accident or a heart attack or whatever.  It is not that hard.

@JCG posted:

Question for our Conservative brethren:

A guy on a lefty podcast yesterday (Pod Save America) said something to the effect of this:  If you did a Venn diagram where one circle was people who believe that masks should not be worn and the pandemic is just a means to take down DJT, and a second circle was people who believe that Global Climate Change is a hoax, the circles would intersect almost perfectly.

True?

My opinion is it's possible there are people that believe these three things (yes three because the first venn diagram is actually two different and distinct conditions) but if there are people like that they are so far out on the tail you can't even see them.    My guess is he is saying this because it makes him feel good or superior to think this is a mainstream opinion of people on the right.  Also, I would guess that this makes his listeners feel superior too.  So basically its garbage.  

@JCG posted:

Question for our Conservative brethren:

A guy on a lefty podcast yesterday (Pod Save America) said something to the effect of this:  If you did a Venn diagram where one circle was people who believe that masks should not be worn and the pandemic is just a means to take down DJT, and a second circle was people who believe that Global Climate Change is a hoax, the circles would intersect almost perfectly.

True?

I don't think I or most people I know fit into either circle but I live on the fringe.  I think the exaggeration of the pandemic (which I question if it truly is one if the numbers were not skewed) is a smoke and mirrors tactic to distract from Trump re-election.  (Let me clarify here my belief on Trump.  He is not my favorite candidate but the only one I would vote for that is running.  I think Biden is a smoke and mirror to get his vp choice in then move him out but when he tries to talk it is sad.  I wish Trump would just do his job and stop posting, tweeting, and mainly talking.  His job has been effective but the other stuff is distracting from that.)  I also believe there is a climate change but not to the extent that it is being blown up many times.  I believe mankind will be gone or in a different period of history (my religious beliefs) by the time the earth is badly hurt by climate change.  Again, global climate change is a political, worldview mindset that is pushed by liberal minded people. 

So I reckon I sit on the edge of both circles but not in the middle.  I think liberal minded people with agendas also push both opposite circles so his theory is right.  You live in or near one circle or the other.  Just like a lot of issues that I could add to both circles.  I think most of the people in the United States are either conservative thinking or liberal thinking.  Those who say they are moderates actually are one or the other but they just don't want to identify with either.

Ironically, this pandemic gave every politician in the country the chance to be a hero.  Some have taken it, some have flubbed it.  I'm not talking about what I personally think, I'm talking about national polls.  Influenced by the media?  Sure, but we do have a free press in this country; people can, in fact, choose which media they want to consume.  If everyone chose to watch and believe what certain right-wing media was proposing (and it's all out there, everyone is free to do so), then the polls would be different.  People are choosing not to follow that media.

We have a democracy, so we picked our leaders.  Leaders do what they believe is right, or they act while watching polls.  I'm not sure which I admire; in the former case you can say that a majority voted for the person and thus for his fundamental principles, even in an unprecedented situation; in the latter case, you can say that the leader is responsive to what his consitutents are feeling.  In the case of some politicians at this moment, they seem to be doing neither.  That is not leadership, in my opinion.

@JCG posted:

Question for our Conservative brethren:

A guy on a lefty podcast yesterday (Pod Save America) said something to the effect of this:  If you did a Venn diagram where one circle was people who believe that masks should not be worn and the pandemic is just a means to take down DJT, and a second circle was people who believe that Global Climate Change is a hoax, the circles would intersect almost perfectly.

True?

The fact that you would even ask this question surely shows your true colors.  I’ve stayed away from this type of dialogue, but you propagating this idea compelled me to react.  My guess is you were just being a wise ass, so kudos to you!

I’m a conservative and I wear a mask.  Recently visited CA and took my Covid test when I got back to CT as a precaution.  I have a Democrat friend who flew his son from CA to the NE, to live in a house with others, who did not do the same.  I have Democrat friends who post on FB about wearing masks, yet I have never seen them wear themselves, mostly at our summer baseball games in front of many.  These same parents have sent their kids to high risk areas without following the precautions they preach.

People want to continue to create divisions, hopefully you’ll smarten up one day and realize it.

@CTbballDad posted:

The fact that you would even ask this question surely shows your true colors.  I’ve stayed away from this type of dialogue, but you propagating this idea compelled me to react.  My guess is you were just being a wise ass, so kudos to you!

I’m a conservative and I wear a mask.  Recently visited CA and took my Covid test when I got back to CT as a precaution.  I have a Democrat friend who flew his son from CA to the NE, to live in a house with others, who did not do the same.  I have Democrat friends who post on FB about wearing masks, yet I have never seen them wear themselves, mostly at our summer baseball games in front of many.  These same parents have sent their kids to high risk areas without following the precautions they preach.

People want to continue to create divisions, hopefully you’ll smarten up one day and realize it.

This is precisely what I mean, that everyone is doing things that purists on either side wouldn't think they would do.  That's my whole point.  We all know that there are very few purists.   It's only a problem because in our electoral system, we only have two major parties, so everything is expected to line up on one side or another.  In many countries, they have lots of political parties, and you pick the one where most things line up with your ideas.  Seems to me that is a better reflection of the way people actually are, although I'm not sure it makes their governments work better.

@baseballhs posted:

Average life expectancy in the US: 78

Median Covid Death age: 80

I can't find a cite for US median Covid age of death, but what I can find suggests that the median age is probably near 80. Note data is now about a month old.  From here. The second chart is more informative.  Covid is responsible for about 9% of overall deaths in the US in the time period. For Ages 45+, that average applies pretty well.  That is, younger people die less often than older people in general, but Covid is responsible for pretty similar percentages of those deaths in people over 45. And that percentage doesn't drop off particularly fast for the 35+ group, either.

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@CTbballDad posted:

The fact that you would even ask this question surely shows your true colors.  I’ve stayed away from this type of dialogue, but you propagating this idea compelled me to react.  My guess is you were just being a wise ass, so kudos to you!

I’m a conservative and I wear a mask.  Recently visited CA and took my Covid test when I got back to CT as a precaution.  I have a Democrat friend who flew his son from CA to the NE, to live in a house with others, who did not do the same.  I have Democrat friends who post on FB about wearing masks, yet I have never seen them wear themselves, mostly at our summer baseball games in front of many.  These same parents have sent their kids to high risk areas without following the precautions they preach.

People want to continue to create divisions, hopefully you’ll smarten up one day and realize it.

Nope, not being a wiseass, in this particular instance. It's an honest question born of curiosity about people's beliefs. 

I'm sorry that I offended you.  If it makes you feel any better, I found your reply offensive as well, so kudos to you! 

@jacjacatk posted:

I can't find a cite for US median Covid age of death, but what I can find suggests that the median age is probably near 80. Note data is now about a month old.  From here. The second chart is more informative.  Covid is responsible for about 9% of overall deaths in the US in the time period. For Ages 45+, that average applies pretty well.  That is, younger people die less often than older people in general, but Covid is responsible for pretty similar percentages of those deaths in people over 45. And that percentage doesn't drop off particularly fast for the 35+ group, either.

Of course you realize that "COVID-19 Deaths" includes anyone who died AND tested positive or was untested and presumed to be positive, correct?

Just like the guy killed in a motorcycle accident someone mentioned earlier today.

So of course when you look at the sheer number who test positive (as the press likes to point out) don't you think quite a few people who died may also have had  the virus in their system?

Does that mean they died because of COVID-19 or COVID-19 complications?

Of course not.

@ABSORBER posted:

Of course you realize that "COVID-19 Deaths" includes anyone who died AND tested positive or was untested and presumed to be positive, correct?

Just like the guy killed in a motorcycle accident someone mentioned earlier today.

So of course when you look at the sheer number who test positive (as the press likes to point out) don't you think quite a few people who died may also have had  the virus in their system?

Does that mean they died because of COVID-19 or COVID-19 complications?

Of course not.

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@jacjacatk posted:

I can't find a cite for US median Covid age of death, but what I can find suggests that the median age is probably near 80. Note data is now about a month old.  From here. The second chart is more informative.  Covid is responsible for about 9% of overall deaths in the US in the time period. For Ages 45+, that average applies pretty well.  That is, younger people die less often than older people in general, but Covid is responsible for pretty similar percentages of those deaths in people over 45. And that percentage doesn't drop off particularly fast for the 35+ group, either.

Wow, looking at it from that perspective is really interesting.  Yup, less than 2% difference in % of deaths between age 45 and 85+.  I just turned 60, so I am technically in the Covid danger zone (by many scales).  The last 15 yrs of my life (since hitting that 45 mark) have been amazing and extremely rewarding.  Barring accidental death, I feel like I have a pretty darn good shot at having at least another 15-20 years of the same.  I would hate to think that 30 to 35 years of my life aren't worth anything as some here would imply with the message of "it only kills old people anyway, they've had their shot, we need to move on".  

Don't get me wrong.  I'll throw a tip of the cap to CTballDad... While I tend to counter the hard right points in this thread, I am guilty of some of the actions he points out.  I will certainly respect the space and concerns of others with regard to distancing, masks, etc., but I am quick to discard the mask when there appears to be reasonable space, I'm outside, etc.  I get out and do things whenever I can.  If all-out distancing/guideline efforts are the answer, I have plenty of room for improvement.

There is a really interesting dynamic where we live.  We spend roughly half our time in a very conservative northern part of the county and half in a liberal southern part where the university is.  Wife has offices in both places and I tend to travel back and forth as well.  There is an additional dynamic of tourist flow, mostly south, exacerbated by the fact that we have been open from shut-down more than some of the adjacent counties.  Our beaches, parks, etc., tend to be far less populated than other places in our state.  So many are flocking to what would otherwise be an easy place to distance and be outside.  If you walk into a small business in the south county, you are very likely to come into a place that is full on "masks required" and will see all the recommended precautionary actions in place with spacing, acrylic shields, sanitation, etc.  Walk into the same in the north county and you will likely see no such guidelines in place.  I'm often conflicted.  I want to enjoy that freedom (and often do) but do think it will take that continued effort and sacrifice to get us where we need to be more quickly.  

I went into a boat shop to get some repairs done in the north county yesterday.  As expected, no masks and a snicker from the owner when he saw I had one in my pocket just in case.  I have zero doubt that I would have been charged double had I insisted that I keep my mask on .

@ABSORBER posted:

Of course you realize that "COVID-19 Deaths" includes anyone who died AND tested positive or was untested and presumed to be positive, correct?

 

Your statement is not accurate. Your screenshot is from CDC Provisional Deaths.  That data is from state death certificate reporting to the NCHS. COVID-19 is only coded on a death certificate of it was assumed to cause or contribute to the death.

Your statement is not accurate. Your screenshot is from CDC Provisional Deaths.  That data is from state death certificate reporting to the NCHS. COVID-19 is only coded on a death certificate of it was assumed to cause or contribute to the death.

Your credentials, please.

CDC lists deaths that INVOLVE COVID-19 or presumed COVID-19 (untested). Involve does not mean the cause of death.

Question for the no school crowd, why can’t you accept letting those who want to return to school, including teachers, do so and just stay home? It’s basically the same argument as opening. Nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school. There are options available. 

Personally I think people are frustrated because there are truly no good options for starting school.  Where I am, we are offered a choice of online or in-person, at all grade levels.  Decisions are due two weeks before school starts, then the schools and teachers have to figure it out, which is crazy.  They really have no idea how this will work; maybe with another month, they could come up with something better.  But, at least they are requiring an answer from every family, and going from there.  I don't know if they've asked the teachers in the same way.

The problem is, there are so many issues.  Your question implies that it's going to be the same percentage of teachers and families that want the same thing.  What if more families want in-person, but more teachers want online?  What if all the math teachers want to teach online?  Or the one language teacher only wants to teach in-person?   What if teachers are having to do 3 times the work to teach in both modes?  What if online is way substandard for your child but you have at-risk people at home?   These issues aren't particularly political at all (as some other arguments are), they are simply logistical.

@ABSORBER posted:

Your credentials, please.

CDC lists deaths that INVOLVE COVID-19 or presumed COVID-19 (untested). Involve does not mean the cause of death.

My credentials are that I work in IT for a hospital system and I have 25 years of Health Information Management Systems experience, but you could find the same information with duckduckgo.

I think you're confusing the death involving COVID-19 and the person involving COVID-19. Involved in this case means it caused of contributed to the death. The information you're probably finding about "untested" is in reference to the difference between how confirmed and suspected cases are coded on the death certificate.

See the Iowa Guidelines for Reporting and Certifying COVID-19 Deaths are below as an example, but you can find the same for most states online. If COVID-19 was unrelated to the cause of death and not a contributing factor, it should not be included in Part I or II of the death certificate.

https://medicalboard.iowa.gov/...ying-covid-19-deaths

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