Elephant in the room

@ABSORBER posted:

Of course you realize that "COVID-19 Deaths" includes anyone who died AND tested positive or was untested and presumed to be positive, correct?

Just like the guy killed in a motorcycle accident someone mentioned earlier today.

So of course when you look at the sheer number who test positive (as the press likes to point out) don't you think quite a few people who died may also have had  the virus in their system?

Does that mean they died because of COVID-19 or COVID-19 complications?

Of course not.

Anecdote is not the singular of data. I'd need a lot more evidence that people are being counted as Covid deaths despite obvious other causes that one story posted on a baseball website. Likewise, there's been a lot of data popping up online about excess deaths in this period relative to prior years that suggest that the number of Covid deaths is under-counted generally. That data also needs to be analyzed more carefully than I have seen to account for potential factors like decreases in auto accident deaths due to lockdowns/uneployment and increases in fatalities for things like stroke and heart attacks that may have been born out of reticence to go to doctors/hospitals in a pandemic.

The idea that the US is broadly over-counting deaths due to Covid is largely unsupported by any evidence I've seen. Past history with similar events suggests that knowing the full impact of the virus on both direct and related mortality will require analysis of vast reams of data after the fact. See, for example, conflicting estimates of the mortality rates of the 1918 pandemic, and the more recent H1N1 pandemic. All we really have to go on in the current time frame are necessarily incomplete numbers from various countries, at least some of which are of questionable veracity. I'm no expert in foreign healthcare systems/reporting, but there are obvious reasons to doubt numbers from China, and the mortality rates in different parts of Europe compared to the US, Asia and South/Central America suggest some unknown factors at work or differences in reporting standards.

@ABSORBER posted:

Your credentials, please.

CDC lists deaths that INVOLVE COVID-19 or presumed COVID-19 (untested). Involve does not mean the cause of death.

There are spikes in pneumonia death rates in several states with large numbers of Covid cases as well. Again, highlights the need for more thorough after the fact analysis of the data, and makes more curious the decision to cut the CDC out of the loop on some of the data analysis.

And while I'm not an epidemiologist, nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night, there is a lot of epidemiological work being done on this front, and, to keep this connected vaguely to baseball, my baseball playing graduate student child is studying in this field, so it's not like I've never chatted with someone with some reasonable background in the math.

I find any post asking for someone’s credentials to be laughable. Nobody is an expert on this virus. 

@adbono posted:

I find any post asking for someone’s credentials to be laughable. Nobody is an expert on this virus. 

This is definitively not true.  No one on this forum, probably, but there are definitely people out there who'd qualify both in a general epidemiological sense and in the specifics of this particular virus. There are probably even places where the experts are largely relied on for their expertise with relatively little politicization.

@JCG posted:

Question for our Conservative brethren:

A guy on a lefty podcast yesterday (Pod Save America) said something to the effect of this:  If you did a Venn diagram where one circle was people who believe that masks should not be worn and the pandemic is just a means to take down DJT, and a second circle was people who believe that Global Climate Change is a hoax, the circles would intersect almost perfectly.

True?

This is the kind of obnoxious, condescending, insulting question that offends people and keeps the country divided. Each side looks for the worst possible way to position the other sides view to the point where it isn’t even recognizable.  

I don’t like wearing a mask. I don’t wear it when I’m not required to do so. I do a very good job of staying six feet away from people in public. I don’t argue with store employees who tell me I have to wear a mask. The left would label this as anti mask even though I’m not causing any problems or getting near anyone. 

I don’t believe COVID would be any different with a different president. Fauci would have screwed up regardless of whom he’s advising. I don’t believe Trump has done a good job of communicating to the country during COVID. But, on a personal level I’ve never seen the president as my daddy or mommy to console me. I do believe the Democrats actions or non actions are geared towards COVID doing enough damage to the economy to prevent Trump from being re-elected. Anyone who doesn’t think COVID hasn’t become political is blind. So once again, I must be that far right radical as I can see the obvious. 

I don’t believe climate change is a hoax. I also don’t believe it’s the end of the world the left is promoting it to be. The Paris Accord was irrelevant when  Russia, China, India and Iran weren’t all in. I guess this logic makes me an extremist to the left. I’m not interested in feel good virtue signaling. I’m interested in intelligent ideas that create solutions. 

While the logic of my response would have lefties thinking I’m an extremist I’m a right leaning libertarian. I’ve been called a commie by far right extremists. I’m a big believer government should be limited. People should be allowed to live their lives as they please as long as it doesn’t harm the general public.

As far as masks go, if a person believes they will be harmed, stay home. Let others live their life as they choose. On the flip side for those who are against masks, when forced to wear one I advise findIng a bigger battle on a bigger hill to die on.

As far as Washington and the moronic radio/tv talks shows go the problem is the US only has a far right and a far left. We need four parties and coalitions built to get things done. We need a center-right and a center-left. Those two would be the coalition that gets things done. The far right and far left could then go play with themselves in the corner. 

The need for four or more parties is why I voted for Gary Johnson in 2016. I never believed he had a chance to win. But I wanted the Libertarian Party to get 5% of the vote and qualify for presidential campaign perks in 2020.

I will vote for Trump in November. I believe he did a good job up to COVID. COVID isn’t his fault. What he did wrong was how he addressed the country and fought with reporters in pressers. Trump is the guy who can bring the economy back and beyond. He’s the guy you don’t fire even though you don’t like him. He’s like the jerk with the 95+ fastball. Produce and I’ll tolerate you. Worse, I can’t imagine how BIden would destroy the economy. Biden is almost five decades of political mediocrity. 

Thanks so much for sharing your reasons for voting for Trump in such detail.  Again.  I don't agree with you.  As for your attack on me, look in mirror and study your cult leader's twitter feed. 

Those who say they are moderates actually are one or the other but they just don't want to identify with either.

Polls have showed 90% of Independents regularly vote mostly with one party. Libertarians can be moderates. I’m a right leaning libertarian. I’m far more conservative in how I live my life than my political beliefs. I don’t believe I have the answers for how everyone should live their life. All I’m asking is they not harm the general public. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Question for the no school crowd, why can’t you accept letting those who want to return to school, including teachers, do so and just stay home? It’s basically the same argument as opening. Nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school. There are options available. 

I work with many colleges, most of which have some hybrid model in mind.  Also, most plan on accommodating students who prefer the online option at this time.  I think this is an appropriate course of action based on the current set of circumstances.  However, I would somewhat question your statement that nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school.  Last week, Trump tweeted this and DeVos echoed this directive in a subsequent interview... sure sounds like some in  very high positions want to force you.. doesn't it sound like that to you?

"In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!"

@cabbagedad posted:

I work with many colleges, most of which have some hybrid model in mind.  Also, most plan on accommodating students who prefer the online option at this time.  I think this is an appropriate course of action based on the current set of circumstances.  However, I would somewhat question your statement that nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school.  Last week, Trump tweeted this and DeVos echoed this directive in a subsequent interview... sure sounds like some in  very high positions want to force you.. doesn't it sound like that to you?

"In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!"

 

There are options if you don’t like what your public school district is offering. You have a choice of whatever the public school is offering or you can home school or choose a private school. Nobody is forcing you to put your kid inside a classroom if you don’t want them there. 

@cabbagedad posted:

I work with many colleges, most of which have some hybrid model in mind.  Also, most plan on accommodating students who prefer the online option at this time.  I think this is an appropriate course of action based on the current set of circumstances.  However, I would somewhat question your statement that nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school.  Last week, Trump tweeted this and DeVos echoed this directive in a subsequent interview... sure sounds like some in  very high positions want to force you.. doesn't it sound like that to you?

"In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!"

I think what TerribleBP was stating that even where schools open, kids don't have to go.  They can be home schooled or at least in my state, there is an online public school that anybody can take at anytime.  Our district is doing every other day until we hit phase 3 to keep class sizes down, and think that is appropriate.  If a teacher or faculty member doesn't want to teach during the pandemic, they can find another job or if they are at risk, I believe the ADA allows them to get accommodations (or at least that is what my wife's teacher's legal expert says).  IMO, keeping schools shut down will further hurt the poorest among us, and I think some middle ground is needed. 

From one of the worst hit areas of the country ...

Massachusetts General Hospital doctors make case for return to classroom in oped

https://www.boston25news.com/n...4UJHTVG5OF7YHJF3ZUM/

@MidAtlanticDad posted:

My credentials are that I work in IT for a hospital system and I have 25 years of Health Information Management Systems experience, but you could find the same information with duckduckgo.

I think you're confusing the death involving COVID-19 and the person involving COVID-19. Involved in this case means it caused of contributed to the death. The information you're probably finding about "untested" is in reference to the difference between how confirmed and suspected cases are coded on the death certificate.

See the Iowa Guidelines for Reporting and Certifying COVID-19 Deaths are below as an example, but you can find the same for most states online. If COVID-19 was unrelated to the cause of death and not a contributing factor, it should not be included in Part I or II of the death certificate.

https://medicalboard.iowa.gov/...ying-covid-19-deaths

I'm not confusing anything. The death certificate lists a chain of events or conditions that directly lead to a cause of death. That's the intent, anyway. The first condition (a) is the IMMEDIATE CAUSE of death. After that there can be MANY conditions listed that LEAD or possibly CONTRIBUTE to the cause of death listed in (a). The last condition listed is supposed to be the UNDERLYING CAUSE.

If COVID-19 (U07.1) is listed on ANY of those lines it is included in the number of total deaths in the Provisional Death Count report.

This does NOT mean it was the CAUSE of death or the UNDERLYING cause of death. It can be simply one of many conditions listed. And how does this condition get on the list? It was provided by the doctor/hospital/etc.. The person filing the report is not always the medical provider who treated the patient. Does this mean COVID-19 was NOT the cause or underlying cause of death? No. We simply don't know looking at the report.

Let's take a look at the the week ending 4/18/2020 which happens the be the highest weekly death count listed, 16,935. Note the last column, Deaths including Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19, which lists 21,060 deaths. Also note the COVID-19 deaths are included in the count in this last column. And yes, I know it's obvious. Who's to say the cause of death or underlying cause of death wasn't pneumonia OR influenza? It's just as likely to be either of those just as much as it is COVID-19. The only way to tell (and you have to trust the person filling out the form) is to count either cause or underlying cause only. That is NOT what is listed in first column.

Which is why I stated "CDC lists deaths that INVOLVE COVID-19 or presumed COVID-19 (untested). Involve does not mean the cause of death." But of course it could mean cause of death and it could easily mean it was simply a contributing factor.

And of course it could mean the provider listed COVID-19 on the patient report because the patient tested positive when admitted to the hospital. Should the provider have listed it? Who knows? Chances are they are not the person filling out the death certificate and the person who does fill it our lists it as a condition because it is simply THERE on the medical report.

As far as my comment regarding the motorcycle death? Who knows? I was just trying to be funny--apparently I wasn't very sucessful. Granted it's not as simple as that but I can guarantee the death counts aren't 100% accurate. How could they be? What does a 95 year old person living in a nursing home die of anyway? Old age? Natural cause of death? That just means it could be one or many related and/or unrelated conditions.

@anotherparent posted:

We have a democracy, so we picked our leaders.  Leaders do what they believe is right, or they act while watching polls.  I'm not sure which I admire; in the former case you can say that a majority voted for the person and thus for his fundamental principles, even in an unprecedented situation; in the latter case, you can say that the leader is responsive to what his consitutents are feeling.  In the case of some politicians at this moment, they seem to be doing neither.  That is not leadership, in my opinion.

Sometimes a leader can abuse their power, though, which is why we have checks and balances on it.  For instance, Trump's threat to cut school funding if schools don't open is just an empty threat, since it wouldn't pass legal muster.  Some think that abuse of power is what is happening during Covid.  Some see situations in which they aren't allowed to go to church, while people are allowed to protest, for instance.  Obviously, in an emergency, the government should get some additional power, but that power can and has been abused by people in the past.  Also, the whole current situation plain sucks, and people are pissed off in general. 

@ABSORBER posted:

I'm not confusing anything. The death certificate lists a chain of events or conditions that directly lead to a cause of death. That's the intent, anyway. The first condition (a) is the IMMEDIATE CAUSE of death. After that there can be MANY conditions listed that LEAD or possibly CONTRIBUTE to the cause of death listed in (a). The last condition listed is supposed to be the UNDERLYING CAUSE.

If COVID-19 (U07.1) is listed on ANY of those lines it is included in the number of total deaths in the Provisional Death Count report.

This does NOT mean it was the CAUSE of death or the UNDERLYING cause of death. It can be simply one of many conditions listed. And how does this condition get on the list? It was provided by the doctor/hospital/etc.. The person filing the report is not always the medical provider who treated the patient. Does this mean COVID-19 was NOT the cause or underlying cause of death? No. We simply don't know looking at the report.

Let's take a look at the the week ending 4/18/2020 which happens the be the highest weekly death count listed, 16,935. Note the last column, Deaths including Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19, which lists 21,060 deaths. Also note the COVID-19 deaths are included in the count in this last column. And yes, I know it's obvious. Who's to say the cause of death or underlying cause of death wasn't pneumonia OR influenza? It's just as likely to be either of those just as much as it is COVID-19. The only way to tell (and you have to trust the person filling out the form) is to count either cause or underlying cause only. That is NOT what is listed in first column.

Which is why I stated "CDC lists deaths that INVOLVE COVID-19 or presumed COVID-19 (untested). Involve does not mean the cause of death." But of course it could mean cause of death and it could easily mean it was simply a contributing factor.

And of course it could mean the provider listed COVID-19 on the patient report because the patient tested positive when admitted to the hospital. Should the provider have listed it? Who knows? Chances are they are not the person filling out the death certificate and the person who does fill it our lists it as a condition because it is simply THERE on the medical report.

As far as my comment regarding the motorcycle death? Who knows? I was just trying to be funny--apparently I wasn't very sucessful. Granted it's not as simple as that but I can guarantee the death counts aren't 100% accurate. How could they be? What does a 95 year old person living in a nursing home die of anyway? Old age? Natural cause of death? That just means it could be one or many related and/or unrelated conditions.

Thought I'd also point out the influenza total deaths on the report: 6,539. Of course this just means a flu test was given or perhaps was presumed? But this count also COULD include COVID-19 as a condition on the death certificate.

Don't you think that's a little low? Don't you think some influenza deaths could simply be masquerading as COVID-19 deaths?

@MidAtlanticDad posted:

My credentials are that I work in IT for a hospital system and I have 25 years of Health Information Management Systems experience, but you could find the same information with duckduckgo.

I think you're confusing the death involving COVID-19 and the person involving COVID-19. Involved in this case means it caused of contributed to the death. The information you're probably finding about "untested" is in reference to the difference between how confirmed and suspected cases are coded on the death certificate.

See the Iowa Guidelines for Reporting and Certifying COVID-19 Deaths are below as an example, but you can find the same for most states online. If COVID-19 was unrelated to the cause of death and not a contributing factor, it should not be included in Part I or II of the death certificate.

https://medicalboard.iowa.gov/...ying-covid-19-deaths

And thanks for the link that proves my point:

"If COVID-19 is confirmed by a positive test, the underlying cause of death should be COVID-19."

https://medicalboard.iowa.gov/...ying-covid-19-deaths

If you are old enough there was a time that science told us there was no link between smoking and lung cancer.  Of course those studies were funded by the cigarette companies.

So what is the point?  There is ample proof science has been for sale for at least 75 years.  Find out who funded what and then look at the result of the study.  It is quite amazing to see findings are in lockstep with who wrote the check.  You might see the pattern - it is actually pretty obvious.

So scientists are selling themselves for money.  Being a whore is the world's oldest profession but they have managed to put a veneer of respectability on it.  As long as we continue to susceptible to fear mongering we will be influenced by agendas and so called experts.  Hell Fouci admit s to lying about face masks before and then he flipped and now he says he is telling the truth.  I prefer my experts to be less cagey and more honest.  I know it is an impossible standard but there you go.  His credibility with me is 1 out of 10.    

Do not believe the hype.  Believe no one.  Test every claim for truth.  Find out what the publishers point of view is.

Being informed has never been harder - but if you try it can be done.  You do not need politicians or experts to tell you what to believe.  The inter web has all of the learning of human beings for all time - if you look for it.  Takes a couple of minutes on most any topic and can be very enlightening.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

There are options if you don’t like what your public school district is offering. You have a choice of whatever the public school is offering or you can home school or choose a private school. Nobody is forcing you to put your kid inside a classroom if you don’t want them there. 

I wonder what % of Americans have the realistic option of private school or home schooling?

@cabbagedad posted:

I wonder what % of Americans have the realistic option of private school or home schooling?

Then they can choose the public virtual option. I’m sure there will be places that don’t offer that (I’ve yet to hear of one, but I’m sure they are out there) but so far every district plan I’ve seen includes a virtual option. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Then they can choose the public virtual option. I’m sure there will be places that don’t offer that (I’ve yet to hear of one, but I’m sure they are out there) but so far every district plan I’ve seen includes a virtual option. 

I understand that, TBP.  My response and point was only specific to your statement "nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school".  Trump and our national education leader DeVos want to do just that.  Fortunately, they don't quite have that much power, as someone else pointed out.  

@cabbagedad posted:

I understand that, TBP.  My response and point was only specific to your statement "nobody is going to force you to send your kids to school".  Trump and our national education leader DeVos want to do just that.  Fortunately, they don't quite have that much power, as someone else pointed out.  

They aren’t forcing you to send your kids there. They are trying to force schools to open. I don’t recall hearing anything about prohibiting virtual options. 

@JCG posted:

Thanks so much for sharing your reasons for voting for Trump in such detail.  Again.  I don't agree with you.  As for your attack on me, look in mirror and study your cult leader's twitter feed. 

My cult leader? I didn’t you believe you could get more offensive than your previous question. I was wrong. What an ignorant, obnoxious comment

i don’t worship any politicians. I choose the one I prefer or I don’t vote. In 2016 I didn’t like and didn’t vote for either major candidate. Oh eff it. I don’t owe you an explanation. You’re an arsehole. I shouldn’t have wasted time giving your ignorant, obnoxious,  arsehoe question an honest response in the first place. It’s a shiny example of why bother respond to arsehole Democrats. 

@JCG posted:

Thanks so much for sharing your reasons for voting for Trump in such detail.  Again.  I don't agree with you.  As for your attack on me, look in mirror and study your cult leader's twitter feed. 

I went through all the posts on this thread.  The current score is...

Team Truthers 413         Team Deniers  412

Just kidding.  I have twitter for this kind of stuff.

@anotherparent posted:

But you yourself reject any evidence that comes out now that you don't like.  Who decides which "evidence that we now have" is valid?   You clearly don't like the CDC, which is the organization that should be doing this.  You don't seem to like the major medical journals.  Obviously not the media, or doctors on social media.  So, who?  Explain to us all how this new evidence is to be evaluated.

Quite to the contrary.  I like evidence, not speculation.  I am skeptical by nature and it has served me well personally and professionally.  I don't dislike the CDC, I dislike bull****.  The CDC has valuable info on their web site.  I have stated it more than once, and suggest people look at it.

@Pedaldad posted:

Quite to the contrary.  I like evidence, not speculation.  I am skeptical by nature and it has served me well personally and professionally.  I don't dislike the CDC, I dislike bull****.  The CDC has valuable info on their web site.  I have stated it more than once, and suggest people look at it.

But when the director of the CDC publishes a piece in JAMA, citing published studies, saying that everyone should wear masks, you don't like it. 

Never mind the fact that all the ranges are different size, this map's 1st range topped at 500 a couple days ago. The edit made to change that conveniently kept my county from changing to a higher tier. It also makes the rate of infections throughout the state seem static at a county level when they aren't.

Given the ridiculous setup of the rest of the Georgia DPH data, it's not necessarily the case that this isn't just putting a rank amateur in charge of data, but I guess I have more fodder for the data unit if I end up teaching face to face.

@anotherparent posted:

But when the director of the CDC publishes a piece in JAMA, citing published studies, saying that everyone should wear masks, you don't like it. 

First, I think that you've confused me with someone else.  Never commented on that piece.  Please don't assign me things that I didn't say.  See, just because you feel like something is true, does not make it so.

Second, you're talking about an editorial, not research, not data.

Third, if you want to reference real research, I'll be happy to listen.  Then I'll examine and critique before forming an opinion.  You see, I choose to educate myself before forming an opinion, not decide my opinion and then look for support.

Fourth, are you aware of the WHO's Scientific Brief published just last week that documents that aerosol spread of Covid-19 is not common, and makes recommendations for wearing cloth masks in small, closed-in spaces spaces where social distancing is not possible.  They do not make any explicit recommendation  for masks in open air venues, or in well-ventilated buildings, schools, or grocery stores, etc. because the data does not support it.

Additionally they document that transmission is primarily from contact with droplets on surfaces after a person sneezes, coughs, speaks, or sings.  The exact opposite of what Fauci and Redfield did when testifying before congress (left their masks on while breathing, took them off to speak, touched the desk in front of them, touched their faces, didn't sterilize their hands in-between, all examples of what not to do).  I found it appalling when they did this as a "dog and pony show" to get American. to wear masks the wrong way.  The data tells us it is wrong, and they should know better.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Then they can choose the public virtual option. I’m sure there will be places that don’t offer that (I’ve yet to hear of one, but I’m sure they are out there) but so far every district plan I’ve seen includes a virtual option. 

There are people without the education to help their children with home schooling or virtual schooling.  That is, in fact, why we have schools and teachers.  The point is, it's a mess for everyone.  EVERYONE.  Sure, those of you who sneer at people who are "scared" of getting sick - if your child's math teacher is one of the "scared" ones, then what do you do?  Not have math for a year?   We are all linked in so many ways, you cannot just say, "if you don't want to get sick, stay home."  If we had responsible leaders who would say, "yes, it's a mess for everyone," instead of "get those kids [and teachers] back into schools," that would help.  At least we'd feel that we are all in this together, instead of on opposite sides of what is, in fact, the same disaster.  Maybe we wouldn't have 25 pages of arguing about mask science on a baseball discussion board.

@JCG posted:

Tsk. Tsk. Name-calling is so Trumpy. 

I believe you should be banned from this site. But that doesn't happen these days.

I've blocked you and kindly suggest you do the same.  I'll miss our PM's. 

There you go, ban 'em!  Keep  Nick Cannon and Jimmy Fallon though.  You leftists are so predictable.

@anotherparent posted:

There are people without the education to help their children with home schooling or virtual schooling.  That is, in fact, why we have schools and teachers.  The point is, it's a mess for everyone.  EVERYONE.  Sure, those of you who sneer at people who are "scared" of getting sick - if your child's math teacher is one of the "scared" ones, then what do you do?  Not have math for a year?   We are all linked in so many ways, you cannot just say, "if you don't want to get sick, stay home."  If we had responsible leaders who would say, "yes, it's a mess for everyone," instead of "get those kids [and teachers] back into schools," that would help.  At least we'd feel that we are all in this together, instead of on opposite sides of what is, in fact, the same disaster.  Maybe we wouldn't have 25 pages of arguing about mask science on a baseball discussion board.

I personally don’t sneer at anyone for preferring to not send their kid into a school. I don’t want those people trying to keep schools closed. You are right, the situation is awful, but I think the public schools are doing the best they can. Trying to please several different groups of people is not going to be possible. They are trying to revamp a system in 4 months that has been broken for decades. People need to accept it for what it is and try to make improvements as we move along. 

Around here (very good district with what I believe is a great plan) there are a bunch of people we know trying to get their kids into private schools for this school year. It’s kinda funny how many have suddenly found their faith to try getting their kids into a particular Christian academy. 

@anotherparent posted:

There are people without the education to help their children with home schooling or virtual schooling.  That is, in fact, why we have schools and teachers.  The point is, it's a mess for everyone.  EVERYONE.  Sure, those of you who sneer at people who are "scared" of getting sick - if your child's math teacher is one of the "scared" ones, then what do you do?  Not have math for a year?   We are all linked in so many ways, you cannot just say, "if you don't want to get sick, stay home."  If we had responsible leaders who would say, "yes, it's a mess for everyone," instead of "get those kids [and teachers] back into schools," that would help.  At least we'd feel that we are all in this together, instead of on opposite sides of what is, in fact, the same disaster.  Maybe we wouldn't have 25 pages of arguing about mask science on a baseball discussion board.

We do have a cohesive plan, part of it is getting kids back to school and EVERYONE should get on board with it because we are all in this together.  You want to talk about scared teachers, ok then put it in perspective.

Do you know what an NAT work-up is,  I know the teachers on here do.  Let me tell you what isn't happening with kids out of schools:  NAT workups which stand for non-accidental trauma workups. 

That means abuse is going on without the major checkpoint - teachers and schools.  Most NAT workups begin with elementary teachers reporting suspicion.  When you don't get those workups, you get non-accidental traumas to kids, and that is what my colleagues and  I have been seeing without schools, a drastic increase in non-accidental traumas.

My oldest daughter is a very pregnant, elementary school teacher. Of course she has concerns about Covid-19, just like everyone else. In her relatively short career, only one NAT report has ever been necessary.  But she knows that her Covid concerns, are irrelevant with societal consequences of not educating a generation and not identifying child abuse.  She has more fear of that. 

Can you imagine the fear in that child, not of Covid, but of the next time they get hit or thrown.  We are all part of the same disaster, but some are bent on making it a little more disastrous.

@luv baseball posted:

If you are old enough there was a time that science told us there was no link between smoking and lung cancer.  Of course those studies were funded by the cigarette companies.

So what is the point?  There is ample proof science has been for sale for at least 75 years.  Find out who funded what and then look at the result of the study.  It is quite amazing to see findings are in lockstep with who wrote the check.  You might see the pattern - it is actually pretty obvious.

So scientists are selling themselves for money.  Being a whore is the world's oldest profession but they have managed to put a veneer of respectability on it.  As long as we continue to susceptible to fear mongering we will be influenced by agendas and so called experts.  Hell Fouci admit s to lying about face masks before and then he flipped and now he says he is telling the truth.  I prefer my experts to be less cagey and more honest.  I know it is an impossible standard but there you go.  His credibility with me is 1 out of 10.    

Do not believe the hype.  Believe no one.  Test every claim for truth.  Find out what the publishers point of view is.

Being informed has never been harder - but if you try it can be done.  You do not need politicians or experts to tell you what to believe.  The inter web has all of the learning of human beings for all time - if you look for it.  Takes a couple of minutes on most any topic and can be very enlightening.

Amen to this!

@JCG posted:

Tsk. Tsk. Name-calling is so Trumpy. 

I believe you should be banned from this site. But that doesn't happen these days.

I've blocked you and kindly suggest you do the same.  I'll miss our PM's. 

Tsk, tsk! You’re classic brain dead liberal. You’re oblivious to what caused this exchange. You asked an obnoxious question taking a shot at people on the right.

i spent the time to provide an insightful response to enlighten you on hhow someone who doesn’t see the world as you.

The response for my effort was for you to take another shot at me. You’re a classic locked in loon. That’s not name calling. It’s the truth. You can’t see the world in any fashion but your own myopic, blinders on view. 

@JCG posted:

Tsk. Tsk. Name-calling is so Trumpy. 

I believe you should be banned from this site. But that doesn't happen these days.

I've blocked you and kindly suggest you do the same.  I'll miss our PM's. 

Blocked me? I reported you and all your posts where you’ve attempted to troll several posters. It’s funny how the posters who are the real problem think it’s others who are the problem. You want uncivil? I can give it back twice as good as I get.

@ABSORBER posted:

I'm not confusing anything. The death certificate lists a chain of events or conditions that directly lead to a cause of death. That's the intent, anyway. The first condition (a) is the IMMEDIATE CAUSE of death. After that there can be MANY conditions listed that LEAD or possibly CONTRIBUTE to the cause of death listed in (a). The last condition listed is supposed to be the UNDERLYING CAUSE.

You're first paragraph is accurate, but then you contradict it in the rest of your post. The U07.1 code doesn't go on the death certificate in the motorcycle accident example. That code would be on the patient's chart for documentation, but not the death certificate bc it didn't contribute to the person's death and is not an underlying cause. It is totally unrelated to the death. The death certificate is not a medical record. It doesn't include all of the patient's medical conditions that did not contribute to the death. If the motorcyclist had a heart condition, that wouldn't be on the death certificate either.

I really don't know if COVID deaths have been under-reported or over-reported, and I'm not trying to convince you either way. I'm just trying to explain how COD reporting works, and to correct the erroneous information that you posted as fact.

Uh, did I miss something?

Well, before we get shut down, I ran across this completely by accident. I thought I was making a bid on eBay for a vintage Penn 700 Spinfisher reel. Not sure if I got hacked or what. I’ve never even been to Mississippi ( though I hear it’s a lovely place). 

I think Tate Reeves is the Republican governor of Mississippi. Series of Tweets from the gov. :

1) "Let's talk about herd immunity. I've listened to some people argue that the rapid spread of cases is a good thing, and we need to reach herd immunity in Mississippi and elsewhere to survive. I'm not a health care expert by any means, but I am a math guy. And I have thoughts:"

2) "The experts say we need 70-80% of the population to get COVID-19 to achieve herd immunity. Let's assume they're wrong (it's certainly possible, they have been before.) Let's assume they're being way overly cautious and we actually only need 40% infection for herd immunity."

3) "In Mississippi, our population is 3 million. We've had 36,680 cases so far. We'd need 1.2 MILLION infections to achieve that hypothetical 40% threshold. (Remember, experts say it's double that.)"

4) "Over the last two weeks, our hospital system has started to become stressed to the point of pain. We are seeing the early signs and effects of it becoming overwhelmed. We had to suspend elective surgeries again."

5) "On our worst day of new cases, we had just over 1,000. It has typically been between 700-900 during this most aggressive time. To get to 40% infections, we'd need 3,187 new cases every day for a full year from today. We would need to TRIPLE our worst day -- every day -- for a year."

6) "I'm not one of these guys that immediately dismisses any idea that challenges the expert status quo talking points. I'm pretty skeptical by nature. That's healthy. But herd immunity is not anything like a realistic solution in the short or mid-term. I wish it was."

7) "Unless you're willing to go without hospitals after a car wreck or heart attack, we need a different approach. Right now, despite mixed messages at the beginning, it seems like masks are the best bet. They're a hell of a lot better than widespread shut downs. Please wear one!  

@ABSORBER posted:

And thanks for the link that proves my point:

"If COVID-19 is confirmed by a positive test, the underlying cause of death should be COVID-19."

https://medicalboard.iowa.gov/...ying-covid-19-deaths

It doesn't prove your point, because you've taken it out of the context of the reporting. That quote does not stand on its own. Again, it is only applicable to reporting COVID-19 deaths, which was defined above that quote. "Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death." So the context is, once you've determined that COVID caused or contributed to the death, and the patient tested positive, then code the underlying COD as COVID.

I got us to page 22; I think I've done my part.

@JCG posted:

Question for our Conservative brethren:

A guy on a lefty podcast yesterday (Pod Save America) said something to the effect of this:  If you did a Venn diagram where one circle was people who believe that masks should not be worn and the pandemic is just a means to take down DJT, and a second circle was people who believe that Global Climate Change is a hoax, the circles would intersect almost perfectly.

True?

I don't know how old you are, but I grew up in the 1970s and 80s.  Back then, had a grasp of left vs right politics.  It didn't make sense, but I knew each sides basic platform.  On the right, the platform was based on less government intrusion, lower taxes and the rights of the individual.  On the left, it was always protection for workers (unions, including police unions were staunch supporters), buying American made products, and defenders of free speech.  The division never made sense, but I knew what they each stood for.

Now those things that used to be the major liberal tenets no longer seem to be part of their platform, and have actualIy been adopted by the right.  Protection for police and workers, free speech, returning to "built in America and buy American".  So I really don't know what liberal ideology is anymore, but I know it is not the democratic party that I grew up with.   I know it is not about bringing jobs back to America, it isn't about individual freedoms as outlined in the Bill of Rights (always attacking the 2nd, but now 1st amendment too),  it isn't support for government/union workers (defund the police), and we know it isn't anything from the right's platform.  Is it just rooting for the blue team over the red team?  What is is that makes you a "lefty"?  Your word not mine.

The republican party also was widely respected and George H Bush was a prime example. A lot has changed.

@ABSORBER posted:

I'm not confusing anything. The death certificate lists a chain of events or conditions that directly lead to a cause of death. That's the intent, anyway. The first condition (a) is the IMMEDIATE CAUSE of death. After that there can be MANY conditions listed that LEAD or possibly CONTRIBUTE to the cause of death listed in (a). The last condition listed is supposed to be the UNDERLYING CAUSE.

If COVID-19 (U07.1) is listed on ANY of those lines it is included in the number of total deaths in the Provisional Death Count report.

This does NOT mean it was the CAUSE of death or the UNDERLYING cause of death. It can be simply one of many conditions listed. And how does this condition get on the list? It was provided by the doctor/hospital/etc.. The person filing the report is not always the medical provider who treated the patient. Does this mean COVID-19 was NOT the cause or underlying cause of death? No. We simply don't know looking at the report.

Let's take a look at the the week ending 4/18/2020 which happens the be the highest weekly death count listed, 16,935. Note the last column, Deaths including Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19, which lists 21,060 deaths. Also note the COVID-19 deaths are included in the count in this last column. And yes, I know it's obvious. Who's to say the cause of death or underlying cause of death wasn't pneumonia OR influenza? It's just as likely to be either of those just as much as it is COVID-19. The only way to tell (and you have to trust the person filling out the form) is to count either cause or underlying cause only. That is NOT what is listed in first column.

Which is why I stated "CDC lists deaths that INVOLVE COVID-19 or presumed COVID-19 (untested). Involve does not mean the cause of death." But of course it could mean cause of death and it could easily mean it was simply a contributing factor.

And of course it could mean the provider listed COVID-19 on the patient report because the patient tested positive when admitted to the hospital. Should the provider have listed it? Who knows? Chances are they are not the person filling out the death certificate and the person who does fill it our lists it as a condition because it is simply THERE on the medical report.

As far as my comment regarding the motorcycle death? Who knows? I was just trying to be funny--apparently I wasn't very sucessful. Granted it's not as simple as that but I can guarantee the death counts aren't 100% accurate. How could they be? What does a 95 year old person living in a nursing home die of anyway? Old age? Natural cause of death? That just means it could be one or many related and/or unrelated conditions.

Man, the rigor of this Dick and Jane primer is off the charts.