@ABSORBER posted:There are worse places to keep your head. Let me know what it’s like.
Wow. I think this has gotten a little too personal. I'm sorry if I said anything to you that made you feel you needed to say this to me. Perhaps I deserved it. I'm going to stay out of this thread and stick to baseball.
@fishnsail posted:Dude that was great.. and spot on
The Duck is the man!
@Iowamom23 posted:I know you like to throw around facts and figures that support your point of view and attack other people for not using logic etc.
That's fine. I'm no expert on any of this and I don't pretend to be. All I know is 10,000 people can go to a baseball game in Taiwan. Our pro games will be played with empty stands. I'd like to try what they tried.
Attack is pretty strong. You will be hard pressed to find posts where I did anything other than express an opinion and supported it with facts and logic. There are some public figures that I have been critical of their actions. There are some that have come after me for not agreeing with them.
But as for your proposal, I'd like to try what they tried as well. Let's put people in the stands in an open air environment for games, not capacity but maybe 50%. That isn't a high risk for spread of respiratory illness like bars, nightclubs, public transportation and tiny apartments. I like it.
@Pedaldad posted:Attack is pretty strong. You will be hard pressed to find posts where I did anything other than express an opinion and supported it with facts and logic. There are some public figures that I have been critical of their actions. There are some that have come after me for not agreeing with them.
But as for your proposal, I'd like to try what they tried as well. Let's put people in the stands in an open air environment for games, not capacity but maybe 50%. That isn't a high risk for spread of respiratory illness like bars, nightclubs, public transportation and tiny apartments. I like it.
One difference between us. I’d like to do it safely.
I disagree -- 50% capacity in a sports stadium sounds like a recipe for COVID exposure:
1) sitting in close proximity (within 1-2 meters) of four to six other people
2) for a long time (more than 15 minutes near someone is considered a risky exposure)
3) with people potentially shouting and cheering (expelling potentially virus-laden droplets all over the place)
Even if people are wearing masks (much better than the alternative), if the prevalence of COVID is more than 10% in a community, there will be plenty of chances for viral transmission.
Oh - I see =) What Taiwan tried was gaining control of the community infection levels before reopening things! I haven't been here since yesterday - I've gotten way behind.
@Pedaldad posted:But what I will hold the modelers, politicians, and the media accountable for is not adjusting to the evidence that we now have.
But you yourself reject any evidence that comes out now that you don't like. Who decides which "evidence that we now have" is valid? You clearly don't like the CDC, which is the organization that should be doing this. You don't seem to like the major medical journals. Obviously not the media, or doctors on social media. So, who? Explain to us all how this new evidence is to be evaluated.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:Is GA not requiring masks to return to school? What other districts or states will not be requiring masks, distancing, or other safety measures?
Georgia isn't requiring anything. Like all too many places, they're just leaving decisions up to whoever decides to make decisions at a lower level. Fulton County schools won't require masks unless a local government requires them. It's a complete circle of buck passing.
Any evidence from any source that said it was safe to protest is worthless to me. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong, I’m just not taking them seriously.
@anotherparent posted:Wait, so this means that the families are opting out of being in the classrooms. Hm, that's not the impression I was getting from the emails above, where people made it sound like the families want in-person but the teachers don't. Which is it?
I think most school systems have honestly no idea what teachers, or families, want. Our system announced a plan where you can choose in-person hybrid, in-person 5 days, or all online. For the high schools, the individual schools released their specific plans today. Families have 5 days to pick one. The schools will then see who opted for what. They will then have to figure out how to deliver it, in 3 weeks. I think they have no idea what the results will be. It's crazy. The question is, are people who are being vocal (on message boards, in contact with admin, etc.) shaping policies that a more silent majority doesn't, in fact, want?
Who will be teaching the virtual classes? In our system, it will be our regular teachers, the ones who don't want to/can't be in-person.
Very little data being shared with the people who will be in the classrooms so far, but one piece I do have is that 64% of the students at one of the three feeder elementary schools to my MS have opted for online learning in the fall.
The area in which I teach/live is decidedly upper middle class and has a significant number of households that are either multi-generational or have a parent at home full time, which likely factors in to that number.
No one appears to have done any significant preparation for that number of opt-outs.
My wife's school does have an ingenious plan for routing students in a circular path from class to class to "minimize contact" in passing time. It involved them maintaining a circular holding pattern in the halls if the class they're supposed to arrive at hasn't dismissed yet. That's also in a MS, so no chance of that not working at all.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:Right, so let's just take away the rights of those who aren't scared and want to receive a normal education. Online learning works great for some, but is very bad for others. Then there are those who just don't want to do it.
There are lots of studies which are not being disputed that talk about the negative impact of kids not being in school.
There's a difference between being scared and being rational.
The average person sucks at assessing risks, especially the more unusual the risk is.
But I bet if we just ignore the problem, it will go away.
@jacjacatk posted:There's a difference between being scared and being rational.
The average person sucks at assessing risks, especially the more unusual the risk is.
But I bet if we just ignore the problem, it will go away.
Attending school that is implementing every known safety measure is irrational? Btw, scared isn’t my term, it’s the term I’ve heard over and over from parents opting for virtual. “I’m scared to send my kid to school”, “I’m scared to get infected”. There’s nothing wrong with it.
@jacjacatk posted:There's a difference between being scared and being rational.
The average person sucks at assessing risks, especially the more unusual the risk is.
But I bet if we just ignore the problem, it will go away.
Problem will probably go mostly away on Nov 4th .. soon to be closely followed up by:
"Let's try to impeach Trump again"... or "Russia, Russia " or something along those lines...
Yeah, because there’s no problem here. None at all.
Sorry if this was posted by someone. I see there are like 3 pages of comments today so can't go through all. Someone just sent this to me. MSNBC piece with 5 pediatricians and how they would make schools safe and if they would send their kids back to school. For those with short attention spans go to 2:20 of the video, for those that don't want to look 5 out of 5 pediatricians didn't hesitate to say they would send their kids back to school. If you watch the whole thing - mask use (no for young kids, yes for HS) and kids are not superspreaders are covered plus more suggestions on making schools safe.
That’s encouraging. Thx for sharing it.
@RJM posted:
The science says going back to school for children is safe. It’s been proven in schools in country after country around the world. Statistical science says it’s safe for adults under 45yo. Is science only valid when it fits the Mainstream Media Democrat Party Fan Club franchise’s agenda? Here’s input from a bunch of American pediatricians. I love the look of shock on the MS-NBC host’s face after receiving an unexpected response.
https://youtu.be/UJNWdLRGuwE
Science only matters when liberals like what it says.
@anotherparent posted:Wait, so this means that the families are opting out of being in the classrooms. Hm, that's not the impression I was getting from the emails above, where people made it sound like the families want in-person but the teachers don't. Which is it?
I think most school systems have honestly no idea what teachers, or families, want. Our system announced a plan where you can choose in-person hybrid, in-person 5 days, or all online. For the high schools, the individual schools released their specific plans today. Families have 5 days to pick one. The schools will then see who opted for what. They will then have to figure out how to deliver it, in 3 weeks. I think they have no idea what the results will be. It's crazy. The question is, are people who are being vocal (on message boards, in contact with admin, etc.) shaping policies that a more silent majority doesn't, in fact, want?
Who will be teaching the virtual classes? In our system, it will be our regular teachers, the ones who don't want to/can't be in-person.
Our district put out a survey 2-3 weeks ago to parents and teachers. 70% of parents said they wanted to return to school as normal. 80% of teachers said the same. Yet here we are being told that we must be remote until at least 9/7 and the superintendent just sent a letter asking that the department of education allow them to extend it out further. It’s BS. At our school board meeting a little over a week ago he said we would likely have regular school with the option to be fully remote. That should’ve worked for everyone.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:Attending school that is implementing every known safety measure is irrational? Btw, scared isn’t my term, it’s the term I’ve heard over and over from parents opting for virtual. “I’m scared to send my kid to school”, “I’m scared to get infected”. There’s nothing wrong with it.
Every known safety measure would include smaller class sizes and mandatory mask wearing. If Walmart can do it, so can my school district, but they're not.
Maybe scared is an appropriate term for some people. Outraged at the absurd ways this is being handled is more appropriate around here. My youngest is still in HS, and doesn't do great with virtual (work-ethic issues of his own). We're probably going to put him in virtual at least part-time, because the schools don't have a sane plan right now, and I can't see any evidence that's going to get fixed before school starts. I'd rather he go ahead and take a "gap" year than deal with the mess that's materializing here.
@fishnsail posted:Problem will probably go mostly away on Nov 4th .. soon to be closely followed up by:
"Let's try to impeach Trump again"... or "Russia, Russia " or something along those lines...
Well, the spokesman for the agency that's now in charge of Covid data, in place of the CDC, used to work for Boris Yeltsin, so even money the data starts looking a lot better in the next couple of weeks.
@old_school posted:Science only matters when liberals like what it says.
The science of kids going back to schools in countries with 1% of the community spread that's currently going on in the US is of marginal value until we get our spread down to that level.
I guess we'll know in a few weeks, though. Good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe in it or not.
Here are my thoughts from March 18th in another thread (in which I also suggested we'd probably end up at least in the 100s of thousands for deaths later on in the thread).
@jacjacatk posted:Italy is sort of a worst case scenario (given their poor demographics) of what 10 days in our future looks like, if we do what they did. For right now that looks like a running 10 day projection, though it looks like we might actually be "catching up" on that rate, which is bad.
South Korea's something like the best case scenario of what a day in the future looks like. Though we're so far behind that curve it's not that instructive for the US at this stage.
Problem is, we're not doing anything like what SK was doing, and we're not really doing as much as Italy was at the same point in time, at least not universally. And, in spite of the worse demographics in some respects in Italy, we've got our own issues with lack of general health in more vulnerable portions of the population and demographics with the level of travel that we had going on within the US during the period in question.
Infection rate in the US (to the extent we can actually measure it given lack of testing) is running ahead of where Italy was at the same point in the process now, FWIW. Italy's rate of growth in infections has begun to slow, but doesn't yet appear to have hit an inflection point.
I'd be astounded if there aren't at least 6 figures of infections in Italy before this is done, and the US will very likely follow at least that far.
Realistically, given what we know about mortality and doubling rates already, it's nearly a certainty that there are already at least a half million infected in Italy, the vast majority of which have gone undetected.
FWIW, you can know if the measures that are being taken are working when the rate of increase in cases from day-to-day starts really decreasing.
If you're picking a thing to be concerned about in the future at this stage, you should probably be more concerned about what school's going to look like in the fall than at any point in the remainder of this school year. And cross your fingers and hope this thing turns out to be really seasonally affected.
Parents have to remember they also have power. Back when both my kids were in school some were starting to shift the school year to start before Labor Day. Parents were polled. Over 75% said no. The district did it anyway. The next April the three board members up for re-election lost. School started Wednesday after Labor Day that fall.
There was an article out late last week that surmised that perhaps we were close to herd immunity in certain areas of the country. I didn't post it because the author prob would have been skewered on this board. Yesterday I was listening to my fav commentator on Covid, Scott Gottlieb, and he started talking about T-Cell immunity (a major component of the immune system). A little more digging and all the vaccines are trying to create antibodies from B Cells that attach to the virus and stop it from entering cells. However, T Cells also attack the virus and for many people defend against the virus (immunity). Many people get coronaviruses (colds) in their life and the theory is these t-cells have developed to fight and defend against Covid 19.
I just thought it was interesting that potentially a large % of the population is already immune to Covid 19. What % of the population would be very interesting to know. Is it larger in Asian countries where there are more coronavirus? Is it larger in the colder states there are more winter colds etc? Are we actually closer to herd immunity than we think?
It sounds like to me this is very real and we haven't hear enough about this.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:There was an article out late last week that surmised that perhaps we were close to herd immunity in certain areas of the country. I didn't post it because the author prob would have been skewered on this board. Yesterday I was listening to my fav commentator on Covid, Scott Gottlieb, and he started talking about T-Cell immunity (a major component of the immune system). A little more digging and all the vaccines are trying to create antibodies from B Cells that attach to the virus and stop it from entering cells. However, T Cells also attack the virus and for many people defend against the virus (immunity). Many people get coronaviruses (colds) in their life and the theory is these t-cells have developed to fight and defend against Covid 19.
I just thought it was interesting that potentially a large % of the population is already immune to Covid 19. What % of the population would be very interesting to know. Is it larger in Asian countries where there are more coronavirus? Is it larger in the colder states there are more winter colds etc? Are we actually closer to herd immunity than we think?
It sounds like to me this is very real and we haven't hear enough about this.
reference earlier comment on when science matters.
@cabbagedad posted:Really not looking to get back into the weeds but...
Of course. Myself and others have agreed openly here many times that there should be allowances for regions, cities, etc. where special consideration is given to population density, spread rate, etc. But, clearly, there must be more leadership from above, a set of overall guidelines, more support of top experts, a more consistent, calming, assuring message with a solid path mapped out.
Instead, we are getting the complete opposite. The medical/health experts have and continue to map out those guidelines that will give us the best chance to get to a better place as quickly as possible. We can continue to go back and forth with blame but WH leadership has clearly set a miserable example of supporting and promoting those guidelines and certainly hasn't come up with anything resembling a better plan. Yes, some of the details from the health experts deviate as more is learned about this specific virus but the staples are still there. The social distancing and sanitizing principals still apply. They have now adjusted their guidelines to be more amicable as to not require another shutdown but, still, far too many refuse to comply and this will only exacerbate the problem and set us further back.
Guidelines for reopening America 
I believe this incorporates all your suggestions above. This IS the national policy. Just because people don’t like the source, it doesn’t mean that the policy doesn’t exist. Why does the MSM continue to insist that there is no national policy! This is it folks. Cab, I am not singling you out. I am speaking to all who are unaware of the policy.
@DesertDuck posted:
I wonder how long it will be before this gets censored.
@RoadRunner posted:Guidelines for reopening America
I believe this incorporates all your suggestions above. This IS the national policy. Just because people don’t like the source, it doesn’t mean that the policy doesn’t exist. Why does the MSM continue to insist that there is no national policy! This is it folks. Cab, I am not singling you out. I am speaking to all who are unaware of the policy.
The problem is that not everybody is following it. In the US, what can the Federal government do, legally? I guess they could have put restrictions on the covid money. Maybe that is what Hillary would have done if she was in power, but that would still have had to pass Congress. I don't remember any politician suggesting that when they passed the most recent covid bill, so I doubt it. This is the nature of the US, and in the South, where it is running rampant right now, it is what the natural consequence of the policies there resulted in.
As far as schools, it is also following political/cultural lines. More conservative areas are opening up, while more liberal areas are keeping them closed. I'd like to see the correlation between # of current cases and the policies towards schools/universities opening up. I'd bet there is little to no correlation or possibly a reverse one given that most of the cases are in more conservative states.
@Viking0 posted:The problem is that not everybody is following it. In the US, what can the Federal government do, legally? I guess they could have put restrictions on the covid money. Maybe that is what Hillary would have done if she was in power, but that would still have had to pass Congress. I don't remember any politician suggesting that when they passed the most recent covid bill, so I doubt it. This is the nature of the US, and in the South, where it is running rampant right now, it is what the natural consequence of the policies there resulted in.
As far as schools, it is also following political/cultural lines. More conservative areas are opening up, while more liberal areas are keeping them closed. I'd like to see the correlation between # of current cases and the policies towards schools/universities opening up. I'd bet there is little to no correlation or possibly a reverse one given that most of the cases are in more conservative states.
Over 50% of the cases in FL yesterday were from 5 left leaning (and a couple far left) counties. Over the past couple weeks the number has been 50-75%. The conservative parts of the state are much lower.
While the overall FL government is conservative, DeSantis has been leaving it up to local government to make the right decisions for their municipalities. Maybe that's not the right thing to do since those counties are blowing up, but those are also the counties that stayed closed much longer than other counties in FL.
So local townships in heavily populated areas run for decades by Dems were more heavy handed on closing, slower to reopen, and the people in them have failed to follow the needed guidelines for success...this shocks me.
the only obvious result is blame the national government for not being able to make their local community work properly - Orange Man Bad - carry on.
@old_school posted:So local townships in heavily populated areas run for decades by Dems were more heavy handed on closing, slower to reopen, and the people in them have failed to follow the needed guidelines for success...this shocks me.
the only obvious result is blame the national government for not being able to make their local community work properly - Orange Man Bad - carry on.
Yep. Round 2. In FL, everything good was just pure luck or in spite of DeSantis. Everything bad is his fault. As you mentioned, the worst areas have been run by Dems for years.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:Over 50% of the cases in FL yesterday were from 5 left leaning (and a couple far left) counties. Over the past couple weeks the number has been 50-75%. The conservative parts of the state are much lower.
While the overall FL government is conservative, DeSantis has been leaving it up to local government to make the right decisions for their municipalities. Maybe that's not the right thing to do since those counties are blowing up, but those are also the counties that stayed closed much longer than other counties in FL.
Some labs in Florida were reporting 100% positives tests for many thousands of tests, when the actual results were 9% positives. The data is being cooked,
@Smitty28 posted:Some labs in Florida were reporting 100% positives tests for many thousands of tests, when the actual results were 9% positives. The data is being cooked,
And the left is accusing DeSantis of hiding deaths and other data.... I'm not a big conspiracy theory believer, but there has to be something behind hundreds of labs only reporting the positives.
well with all the of the bodies stacking up I don't think you should try and skew the data...wait what? no bodies...death rates plummeting, hospitals begging for patients... perhaps the media is making just weeeee little more of this then it is appears to be.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:There was an article out late last week that surmised that perhaps we were close to herd immunity in certain areas of the country. I didn't post it because the author prob would have been skewered on this board. Yesterday I was listening to my fav commentator on Covid, Scott Gottlieb, and he started talking about T-Cell immunity (a major component of the immune system). A little more digging and all the vaccines are trying to create antibodies from B Cells that attach to the virus and stop it from entering cells. However, T Cells also attack the virus and for many people defend against the virus (immunity). Many people get coronaviruses (colds) in their life and the theory is these t-cells have developed to fight and defend against Covid 19.
I just thought it was interesting that potentially a large % of the population is already immune to Covid 19. What % of the population would be very interesting to know. Is it larger in Asian countries where there are more coronavirus? Is it larger in the colder states there are more winter colds etc? Are we actually closer to herd immunity than we think?
It sounds like to me this is very real and we haven't hear enough about this.
I have seen this and other references--such as the possibility that 35% of the population is already immune which lowers the overall herd immunity threshold (HIT) to 10%-20%.
My personal belief is that Asia, due to the prevalence of SARS-like viruses as compared to the west, will do (and does) much better in fighting off this virus. Of course these are the types of scientific studies that should be going on.
Instead there seems to be a belief that the US and some other European countries simply don't have their act together in combating this disease. Common sense and experience tells me this is not the case. Anyone who has spent time overseas in "other" countries knows this is simply not a possibility--regardless of your political leaning.
Local media in DFW is reporting hospitals are full and/or over capacity in Houston - especially Ft Bend County in SW Houston. I have a lifelong friend that lives in Ft Bend County (as do some HSBBW members). I asked her if what’s being reported is true and she says no. Want to weigh in Go44Dad?
@TerribleBPthrower posted:Over 50% of the cases in FL yesterday were from 5 left leaning (and a couple far left) counties. Over the past couple weeks the number has been 50-75%. The conservative parts of the state are much lower.
Just popped in to check the page count on this baby, and I feel like I hit with the old "made you look" prank.
You realize that those 5 left leaning counties are the 5 most populated counties in the state, right? The case count order even aligns perfectly with population order for the 9 largest counties.
Carry on.
This seems to be happening. Call it what you will.
Here is a pretty good non-partisan complaint about Trump's leadership.
Viking.
my Baseball friends from Taiwan sent this article. https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-coronavirus/a-52724523
South Korea and Taiwan focused on a common goal. Forget politics "defeat this virus"
Bob
