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@old_school posted:

well with all the of the bodies stacking up I don't think you should try and skew the data...wait what? no bodies...death rates plummeting, hospitals begging for patients... perhaps the media is making just weeeee little more of this then it is appears to be. 

Deaths involving COVID-19 will very likely end up being the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S. this year, after heart disease and cancer. If you include pneumonia and flu, we're already there. At least as reported by the CDC.

@RoadRunner posted:

Guidelines for reopening America 

I believe this incorporates all your suggestions above.  This IS the national policy.  Just because people don’t like the source,  it doesn’t mean that the policy doesn’t exist. Why does the MSM continue to insist that there is no national policy!  This is it folks. Cab, I am not singling you out. I am speaking to all who are unaware of the policy. 

RR, yeah, I am very aware of the set of guidelines put out by the WH back then.  Those guidelines, outlined by the experts we speak of, actually largely made sense and still do (aside from lacking execution detail and putting too much of the burden of this national/global pandemic on underfunded states and local city/county agencies).  There was even a very brief moment when Trump at least pretended to support those guidelines that his own administration put out. 

Unfortunately, that lasted about two seconds before he started defying his own directives at every turn and encouraging others to do the same and/or just going into hiding for long periods of time or just saying "I'm doing great!".    

So, we are left with individual cities, counties, states scrambling to execute on the plan with anywhere from majorly mixed signals to complete silence to complete defiance of the directives from the top.  Major $hitstorm when we need to be pulled/pulling together.  Again, an extremely difficult situation... I see many leaders from both parties doing an admirable job (and many, not so much) and stepping up to make tough decisions, make things happen, etc., like the story that Viking shared.  I just can't imagine the possibility of #1 doing a worse job.

I'll repeat my disclaimer - I am not a Dem or Republican and have voted for roughly the same number of prez nominees from each party over the years.  I truly wish, for myself and my many Republican friends, that more/any would stand up and demand a better leader to represent the conservative base.  Those who decide to take this as an opportunity to counter with Biden jabs are completely missing the point.  I'm hungry for a strong leader who will stand for ALL Americans and happy to see it come from either party.

Of course, we're still not getting anywhere here so I'm gonna try to step out again... just wanted to respond to  your post.

Last edited by cabbagedad
@cabbagedad posted:

RR, yeah, I am very aware of the set of guidelines put out by the WH back then.  Those guidelines, outlined by the experts we speak of, actually largely made sense and still do (aside from lacking execution detail and putting too much of the burden of this national/global pandemic on underfunded states and local city/county agencies).  There was even a very brief moment when Trump at least pretended to support those guidelines that his own administration put out. 

Unfortunately, that lasted about two seconds before he started defying his own directives at every turn and encouraging others to do the same and/or just going into hiding for long periods of time or just saying "I'm doing great!".    

So, we are left with individual cities, counties, states scrambling to execute on the plan with anywhere from majorly mixed signals to complete silence to complete defiance of the directives from the top.  Major $hitstorm when we need to be pulled/pulling together.  Again, an extremely difficult situation... I see many leaders from both parties doing an admirable job (and many, not so much) and stepping up to make tough decisions, make things happen, etc., like the story that Viking shared.  I just can't imagine the possibility of #1 doing a worse job.

I'll repeat my disclaimer - I am not a Dem or Republican and have voted for roughly the same number of prez nominees from each party over the years.  I truly wish, for myself and my many Republican friends, that more/any would stand up and demand a better leader to represent the conservative base.  Those who decide to take this as an opportunity to counter with Biden jabs are completely missing the point.  I'm hungry for a strong leader who will stand for ALL Americans and happy to see it come from either party.

Of course, we're still not getting anywhere here so I'm gonna try to step out again... just wanted to respond to  your post.

Thank you. I would like to see our president giving frequent reminders of his guidelines, however, I do not blame him for those that ignore the policies. 

Last edited by RoadRunner
@RoadRunner posted:

Thank you. I would like to see our president giving frequent reminders of his guidelines, however, I do not blame him for those that ignore the policies. 

OK ... interesting... so, since he leads the charge in so many ways directly against his own policies/guidelines... personally directs/coordinates large social gatherings (even in known hot spots), constantly ignores face mask and other social distancing guidelines, demand that schools and businesses open despite not reaching the designated guideline targets and/or falling back into the pattern that the guidelines state and on and on... purposefully discredits and publicly ostracizes his own best experts when they promote the guidelines, threatens government officials and holds them hostage with threat of withholding funds and supplies for trying to carry out the very guidelines his administration spelled out... could go on all day... how would you expect his constituency to react? 

So, still not understanding how he can be blameless for those that ignore the policies, but... OK. 

.. and, actually out this time.

Over 50% of the cases in FL yesterday were from 5 left leaning (and a couple far left) counties. Over the past couple weeks the number has been 50-75%. The conservative parts of the state are much lower.

While the overall FL government is conservative, DeSantis has been leaving it up to local government to make the right decisions for their municipalities. Maybe that's not the right thing to do since those counties are blowing up, but those are also the counties that stayed closed much longer than other counties in FL. 

xkcd: Heatmap

@old_school posted:

reference earlier comment on when science matters. 

We have to “follow the politics.”

There’s actually no such thing as “follow the science” until there’s ample data. The country wasn’t shut down on follow the science. It was shit down on follow the faulty, inaccurate models. The Imperial College has whiffed on every virus model going back decades. Over exaggerated models bring attention, publicity, government funding and overreaction. Then CNN and MS-NBC went into “if Trump administration says  up, its down doom and gloom” mode.

The federal government can’t control states. It can only provide information and advice. Then it’s on the states and their governors to determine the outcome. That Cuomo is taking a victory lap is mind boggling.

How often have you read about Kristi Noem and the success she has had not closing her state? All you heard was “they’re doomed now that there’s a breakout at the meat packing plant.” And “they’re doomed now that Trump spoke there and people didn’t distance.” None of the doom happened. That media follow up never happened.

Last edited by RJM
@jacjacatk posted:


“When he says open, he means open in in full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” McEnany told reporters at the press briefing. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

Her quote didn't stop there, make sure full clip is included with full quote. She went on to explain all the science and how the science is on the side of full schools open. 

@Smitty28 posted:

Some labs in Florida were reporting 100% positives tests for many thousands of tests, when the actual results were 9% positives.  The data is being cooked,

Did you know if a person has COVID and is tested five days in a row to see if it’s passed and they don’t, it counts as five positives and not one person positive five times? 

Did you know if one person is tested for COVID and anti bodies and comes up positive it counts as two positives, not one person tearing positive on two tests? 

@Consultant posted:

Viking.

my Baseball friends from Taiwan sent this article. https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-coronavirus/a-52724523

South Korea and Taiwan focused on a common goal. Forget politics "defeat this virus"

Bob

While Taiwan may have done things right there’s a variable that helps. Taiwan has 11 million foreign visitors per year. The US has 77 million. China has been boycotting travel to Taiwan since last year. 3 million Chinese visited the US in 2019.

Last edited by RJM
@jacjacatk posted:


“When he says open, he means open in in full, kids being able to attend each and every day at their school,” McEnany told reporters at the press briefing. “The science should not stand in the way of this.”

Classic liberal move. Edit the comment. She continued on to say “Science is on our side.”

@James G posted:

Her quote didn't stop there, make sure full clip is included with full quote. She went on to explain all the science and how the science is on the side of full schools open. 

It's in the linked video. It doesn't change the fact that she accidentally said the quiet part out loud.

She also neglects to mention that the science on returning to school has largely been done in countries with orders of magnitude less community spread than is evident in most of the US.

Boy, this is the thread that keeps on giving (and filling up my email inbox with notifications - need to disable those!).  We're nearing page 20 which is wholly exciting!  So much information being shared in this.  So many activities!  Ideas and opinions expressed.  Healthy debate and all that, right?!  

So let's do a quick show of hands.  For all the back and forth, charts and graphs, videos, peer-reviewed studies and memes, please raise your hand if your opinion has changed based on anything gifted to you in these 20ish pages.  I'd like to see all the people who were one way, who are now the other.  Surely with all this valuable information, many people have flipped sides, right?  I'd like everyone to see the fruits of their labor.  You did it!  You made a real difference via a high school baseball online forum!

@DanJ posted:

Boy, this is the thread that keeps on giving (and filling up my email inbox with notifications - need to disable those!).  We're nearing page 20 which is wholly exciting!  So much information being shared in this.  So many activities!  Ideas and opinions expressed.  Healthy debate and all that, right?!  

So let's do a quick show of hands.  For all the back and forth, charts and graphs, videos, peer-reviewed studies and memes, please raise your hand if your opinion has changed based on anything gifted to you in these 20ish pages.  I'd like to see all the people who were one way, who are now the other.  Surely with all this valuable information, many people have flipped sides, right?  I'd like everyone to see the fruits of their labor.  You did it!  You made a real difference via a high school baseball online forum!

Nothing changed except I learned to turn off notifications.

@jacjacatk posted:

It's in the linked video. It doesn't change the fact that she accidentally said the quiet part out loud.

She also neglects to mention that the science on returning to school has largely been done in countries with orders of magnitude less community spread than is evident in most of the US.

It wasn't a quiet part, it just wasn't part of her full quote. 

The magnitude makes no difference. The virus isn't different in people of other countries versus US. Most countries have studied schools with children who have been positive, staff positive, and there wasn't massive transmission. There is far more evidence worldwide that it is safe to be in school versus any data that shows it isn't safe. It's not even close any more. For a country that prided itself on following science, we are absolutely not following the science and data available to us regarding opening schools. Other countries aren't ignoring it, and it's working. 

We used to put kids first in our country when it came to education. Now they are last. The education profession prided itself on being essential workers in March and April. If it's essential, then it's time to get back in the classroom. If you aren't able to or unwilling, that is OK. Work with your employer or get out of the way for someone that can. The states and CDC have put out safe guidelines for returning. It's about our future generation education. Figure it the (bleep) out and get back to school. 

@RJM posted:

Classic liberal move. Edit the comment. She continued on to say “Science is on our side.”

She didn't provide any actual citations for that science, most of which, when it comes to schools, has been done in countries with little community spread still evident.

I included the actual video to elaborate on the quote.  You're welcome to watch the entire press conference. Attacking it as a "liberal" move is introducing politics into it, in much the same way that the actual words she said are showing how little science matters to the current agenda.

I'd love going back to school to be all rainbows and unicorns, but there's no credible evidence that's how it will work out, and none of the "preparation" going on in my area suggests that anyone in charge is really giving much thought to things beyond politics.

If the SE US goes full bore back to FTF school in a month, students and teachers are going to die as a direct result. If we carry out this experiment we'll know for sure who's right soon enough. If I'm one of the ones that dies, I'll make sure one of my sons has the account info to logon here and let you know.

@James G posted:

It wasn't a quiet part, it just wasn't part of her full quote. 

The magnitude makes no difference. The virus isn't different in people of other countries versus US. Most countries have studied schools with children who have been positive, staff positive, and there wasn't massive transmission. There is far more evidence worldwide that it is safe to be in school versus any data that shows it isn't safe. It's not even close any more. For a country that prided itself on following science, we are absolutely not following the science and data available to us regarding opening schools. Other countries aren't ignoring it, and it's working. 

We used to put kids first in our country when it came to education. Now they are last. The education profession prided itself on being essential workers in March and April. If it's essential, then it's time to get back in the classroom. If you aren't able to or unwilling, that is OK. Work with your employer or get out of the way for someone that can. The states and CDC have put out safe guidelines for returning. It's about our future generation education. Figure it the (bleep) out and get back to school. 

Good luck finding subs, much less replacement teachers at this point.

No one with community spread at the rates currently going on in the US has tried putting people back into school full time with as little in the way of protections as we have here. Every school in my portion of my district has had a student test positive at the existing summer practices that they've tried to hold (football, volleyball, and cheerleading, so far). We aren't mandating masks, or social distancing, or reducing class sizes to limit contact. Asymptomatic people who have tested positive, students and teachers both, are not required to report their positive tests or quarantine from schools. Given the lack of mask requirements, asymptomatically positive people will be in schools without masks, some of them likely in the full knowledge that they are positive.

We're not doing anything remotely like what the schools that have gone back in Europe have. Here are some other data points, as well.

https://www.inquirer.com/opini...g-kong-20200715.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/g...it-closed-them-again

https://www.washingtonpost.com...2b9eae9e0_story.html

https://www.theguardian.com/au...-at-al-taqwa-college

@jacjacatk posted:

She didn't provide any actual citations for that science, most of which, when it comes to schools, has been done in countries with little community spread still evident.

I included the actual video to elaborate on the quote.  You're welcome to watch the entire press conference. Attacking it as a "liberal" move is introducing politics into it, in much the same way that the actual words she said are showing how little science matters to the current agenda.

I'd love going back to school to be all rainbows and unicorns, but there's no credible evidence that's how it will work out, and none of the "preparation" going on in my area suggests that anyone in charge is really giving much thought to things beyond politics.

If the SE US goes full bore back to FTF school in a month, students and teachers are going to die as a direct result. If we carry out this experiment we'll know for sure who's right soon enough. If I'm one of the ones that dies, I'll make sure one of my sons has the account info to logon here and let you know.

The numbers say children are far less likely to contract or transmit. The number of children who have died is minute. More children die in a typical influenza season. Schools don’t shut down for influenza.

The numbers show anyone forty-five or younger are unlikely to die from COVID. The number increases little up to fifty-five. The decision to be made is what to do with at risk teachers with health situations and those over fifty-five. Otherwise, school should be on. 

@DanJ posted:

Boy, this is the thread that keeps on giving (and filling up my email inbox with notifications - need to disable those!).  We're nearing page 20 which is wholly exciting!  So much information being shared in this.  So many activities!  Ideas and opinions expressed.  Healthy debate and all that, right?!  

So let's do a quick show of hands.  For all the back and forth, charts and graphs, videos, peer-reviewed studies and memes, please raise your hand if your opinion has changed based on anything gifted to you in these 20ish pages.  I'd like to see all the people who were one way, who are now the other.  Surely with all this valuable information, many people have flipped sides, right?  I'd like everyone to see the fruits of their labor.  You did it!  You made a real difference via a high school baseball online forum!

I can only speak for myself, but I am grateful for all the people that contributed. 

Re has my opinion changed ...

No. But the back and forth has provided information I didn’t have. I gained information that confirms my position. I gained information that helps me understand why some people disagree.

A problem society has right now is shouting down people with opposing views. If I’m in disagreement I ask people, “Why do you believe that to be true?” 

Then I can prove them wrong or back off the debate. My best friend (we were each other’s best man) is a liberal. But he’s not as liberal as he thinks. Both his parents collected every dime they ever made from the government. His wife and he have either collected every dime from the government or government funded jobs. 

My father was in corporate management before getting bounced in a merger in his mid fifties. He joined a small business for a share of the company. I left the corporate world to start a company with two partners when I was twenty-nine. Despite success In the corporate world I was a square peg in a round hole politically.

It makes absolutely no sense to get in an debate with my friend about big government versus small government. 

@James G posted:

Also do you know what all the other countries had to do in order to go back to school and study how the virus affected everything? They...wait for it...WENT BACK TO SCHOOL. 

We'll never know anything if we don't do anything. If we want to do nothing for years and years, well then...have at it. 

Well, and get their collective daily case load to about 1/30th of Georgia's, per capita.

If the US was at 2-3k cases a day, I'd be concerned we weren't doing enough still, but I'd be a lot more comfortable with the idea we were at least managing the problem and had a chance of seeing school through.

@RJM posted:

The numbers say children are far less likely to contract or transmit. The number of children who have died is minute. More children die in a typical influenza season. Schools don’t shut down for influenza.

The numbers show anyone forty-five or younger are unlikely to die from COVID. The number increases little up to fifty-five. The decision to be made is what to do with at risk teachers with health situations and those over fifty-five. Otherwise, school should be on. 

Schools do, in fact, shut down for influenza.  We just haven't had a flu pandemic, it's been localized clusters that have shut down in recent years.

I haven't seen solid info on transmissibility in kids where community spread is close to what it is in the US. I am personally familiar with a number of MS/HS athletes that have tested positive in my school cluster.

What I have seen suggests that HS/College age kids are no less likely to transmit it than adults.

And, sure, fatality rates in elementary/middle school kids are miniscule, but it climbs to more flu-like rates in the HS+ age groups, and there are 74 million people under 18 in the US. A tiny percentage of that is still a real number of excess deaths, and that's before considering other health implications.

Last edited by jacjacatk
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