It is Past Time to Face Reality

The reality is there are no real answers. The answers won’t be known until this is long over, the research has been done, the data has been analyzed and the papers written. 

A second reality is we have to get back to work. 40% of Americans can’t handle a surprise $1,000 bill. The average small business has 27 days of cash. 

A saw a WSJ article this morning it’s projected 30% of businesses that shut down will never reopen. One of my homes in in a hospitality industry centered small city. The local business journal expects more than fifty percent of restaurants to go under.

There were some previous comments in the thread about how and when businesses open (especially restaurants). Germany, Denmark, Norway and Austria are reopening this week. Watch what they’re doing. They’re not flipping the switch like a new day has dawned. They’re opening cautiously while maintaining distancing. Restaurants are not reopening in this wave.

Some informative data today from a Dutch study. This goes to the percentage of pop infected (by assessing antibodies). [The greater the percentage of previously unknown cases, the lower the mortality rate; the lower the mortality rate the better [duh].]

Netherlands has released a study about percentage of pop who have antibodies: 30,000/million [3%].  (Coronavirus live updates: Trump to unveil reopening guidelines, China races toward a vaccine - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/1...us-live-updates.html)

The Dutch have identified 1700/million as positives during infection. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Extrapolating that means there are app 18 unknown infections (meaning asymptomatic, or cases which resolved without the person seeking medical attention [mild]) to 1 known case. (Most speculation I have seen from infectious disease experts (as opposed to pundits) had hypothesized between 10 and 30 to 1. So, pretty close.) Herd immunity for this type of infectious agent is 40 - 70% of pop.

Further calculations (because my wife and I were trying to figure out what info we would need to decide to resume activities [while still washing our hands, touching face, etc.]: Netherlands death rate is about .6% of total. ([3% of pop] infected, [193/mil dead, 30,000/mil infected]). Flu is .1%. So, 6x. AND, when you overlay that with the disproportionate number of older, comorbidity deaths, the death rate for the other subset (healthier, younger) is much, much lower. (Maybe in the flu range, but more data is needed.)

To us, there is a huge difference between a 10% mortality rate (dividing the deaths by the number of positives with zero known undiagnosed cases), a 2% rate, and a .6% rate (dividing the deaths by total infections [diagnosed or antibody proven]) - especially when those are concentrated in particular vulnerable sections of the population. 

This Dutch data - if confirmed by other high quality studies - allows us to make a more informed decision.

Interesting!

Thank you, Goosegg!  I think that part of our problem is that the news cycle is now primed for many people to be watching continually (I do this myself), and thus they have to put out new items all the time, which mostly take the form of dire predictions one way or another.  We've only been shut in for a month.  In fact, data about all sorts of things will be coming out soon - testing, infection rates, treatments, etc.  They now know that simply putting severe patients on their stomachs instead of on their backs is a major contributor to the survival of some people. I feel think/hope/feel the CDC must be putting all these things together, so that they can recommend treatments that are appropriate to people with various conditions.

I am hopeful that a combination of these new knowledges plus testing of the sort you describe will enable us to go back to semi-normal life, with more confidence, fairly soon.  It will be useless to try to go back without that sort of confidence, though.

Chico Escuela posted:

James G posted:

If over 80 percent of the population would recover normally if infected (and the remaining could get treated if hospitalization is required), why would there need to be a vaccine for everyone? 

I'm learning quickly about our society that it is perfectly acceptable if people die everyday, but not just from this ONE thing

There is a lot of behavioral economics research in the past 20 years or so (including some that won a Nobel Prize) demonstrating that people are bad at assessing risk.  And one of the kinds of risk they are particularly bad at assessing is novel threats--like COVID-19.  We ride in cars all the time (or used to, before we were ordered to stay home) and don't give a thought to the fact that doing so is the most dangerous activity most of us will undertake that day.  That risk is familiar, so we discount it.

But... working from your numbers (the last time I tried math on this site I completely screwed up, but here goes):

U.S. population = 330,000,000

Assume 80% of population gets the virus (could be completely wrong; bear with me) = 264,000,000

If we assume a 1% death rate (which guess could be much too high), then 2,640,000 fatalities--that is roughly the population of the city of Chicago.

If we assume 0.1% fatality rate, then 264,000 dead--roughly the population of Madison, Wisconsin.

Any or all of the above assumptions could be drastically wrong.  But they show the potential scope of the problem.  And that doesn't mention the strain on the health care system.  These are likely worst-case figures--I don't claim otherwise.  But IMO there is no way to realistically work these numbers to come up with merely a trivial risk.

I don't know what the answers are.  But this is serious stuff.  So is the economic dislocation caused by attempts to slow the virus' spread.  The next year ain't going to be easy.

If you go with a median of those numbers, you still are only to the number of deaths each year that are mostly funded by us/our government.

https://www.cdc.gov/reproducti...a_stats/abortion.htm

Why is there an uproar about the deaths from Covid-19 and not these that are pretty much the same every year.  This has been an epidemic for years 623,000 number from CDC for US and 12,387,435 and rising.  https://www.worldometers.info/abortions/

I don't understand the difference.  Life is life.  We don't have to have a long political debate about it but it is a moral issue which is what Covid-19 deaths are about.  Whether anyone going out in crowds jeopardizes someone else's life. 

SwingIt posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

James G posted:

If over 80 percent of the population would recover normally if infected (and the remaining could get treated if hospitalization is required), why would there need to be a vaccine for everyone? 

I'm learning quickly about our society that it is perfectly acceptable if people die everyday, but not just from this ONE thing

There is a lot of behavioral economics research in the past 20 years or so (including some that won a Nobel Prize) demonstrating that people are bad at assessing risk.  And one of the kinds of risk they are particularly bad at assessing is novel threats--like COVID-19.  We ride in cars all the time (or used to, before we were ordered to stay home) and don't give a thought to the fact that doing so is the most dangerous activity most of us will undertake that day.  That risk is familiar, so we discount it.

But... working from your numbers (the last time I tried math on this site I completely screwed up, but here goes):

U.S. population = 330,000,000

Assume 80% of population gets the virus (could be completely wrong; bear with me) = 264,000,000

If we assume a 1% death rate (which guess could be much too high), then 2,640,000 fatalities--that is roughly the population of the city of Chicago.

If we assume 0.1% fatality rate, then 264,000 dead--roughly the population of Madison, Wisconsin.

Any or all of the above assumptions could be drastically wrong.  But they show the potential scope of the problem.  And that doesn't mention the strain on the health care system.  These are likely worst-case figures--I don't claim otherwise.  But IMO there is no way to realistically work these numbers to come up with merely a trivial risk.

I don't know what the answers are.  But this is serious stuff.  So is the economic dislocation caused by attempts to slow the virus' spread.  The next year ain't going to be easy.

If you go with a median of those numbers, you still are only to the number of deaths each year that are mostly funded by us/our government.

https://www.cdc.gov/reproducti...a_stats/abortion.htm

Why is there an uproar about the deaths from Covid-19 and not these that are pretty much the same every year.  This has been an epidemic for years 623,000 number from CDC for US and 12,387,435 and rising.  https://www.worldometers.info/abortions/

I don't understand the difference.  Life is life.  We don't have to have a long political debate about it but it is a moral issue which is what Covid-19 deaths are about.  Whether anyone going out in crowds jeopardizes someone else's life. 

SwingIt just swung for the fences.  Here we go.  You are about to get blasted brother.

RJM posted:

The reality is there are no real answers. The answers won’t be known until this is long over, the research has been done, the data has been analyzed and the papers written. 

A second reality is we have to get back to work. 40% of Americans can’t handle a surprise $1,000 bill. The average small business has 27 days of cash. 

A saw a WSJ article this morning it’s projected 30% of businesses that shut down will never reopen. One of my homes in in a hospitality industry centered small city. The local business journal expects more than fifty percent of restaurants to go under.

There were some precious comments in the thread about how and when businesses open (especially restaurants). Germany, Denmark, Norway and Austria are reopening this week. Watch what they’re doing. They’re not flipping the switch like a new day has dawned. They’re opening cautiously while maintaining distancing. Restaurants are not reopening in this wave.

Depends on the area, if you live in NYC or a Metro area it does not make sense. Only 1% have been tested, if the tests are ramped up, then you can open in phases.

Note, most in NYC travel via mass transit.  Also, remember the Northeast corridor (Amtrak) and the Long Island railroad.

Note, I've had more that 15 people pass do the the virus, had a couple of other friends that we are now finding out they were hospitalized. The cluster area nearby is New Rochelle.

The restaurant industry is in a precious situation, always has been.

Maybe people will ask the simple question, how often do I need to eat out?  Will I save more money with a home cooked meal.

Here is a interesting thing, Harlem has no supermarkets, thus people have limited opportunities.  Many eat out, which is expensive, yeah the restaurants are happy, but there is an effect on other levels.

I think restaurants will either survive or not, the larger questions are hotels and transportation.  That is much larger discretionary spending than a meal out, I think.  People are going to think twice about business or vacation travel for longer than they will think about eating a meal from a restaurant.

Suddenly I can't wait for the conversations about why does the coach hate my kid or those D1 coaches don't understand what a gem they're missing with my kid. This kind of summarizes my feelings.

Goosegg posted:

Some informative data today from a Dutch study. This goes to the percentage of pop infected (by assessing antibodies). [The greater the percentage of previously unknown cases, the lower the mortality rate; the lower the mortality rate the better [duh].]

Netherlands has released a study about percentage of pop who have antibodies: 30,000/million [3%].  (Coronavirus live updates: Trump to unveil reopening guidelines, China races toward a vaccine - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/1...us-live-updates.html)

The Dutch have identified 1700/million as positives during infection. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Extrapolating that means there are app 18 unknown infections (meaning asymptomatic, or cases which resolved without the person seeking medical attention [mild]) to 1 known case. (Most speculation I have seen from infectious disease experts (as opposed to pundits) had hypothesized between 10 and 30 to 1. So, pretty close.) Herd immunity for this type of infectious agent is 40 - 70% of pop.

Further calculations (because my wife and I were trying to figure out what info we would need to decide to resume activities [while still washing our hands, touching face, etc.]: Netherlands death rate is about .6% of total. ([3% of pop] infected, [193/mil dead, 30,000/mil infected]). Flu is .1%. So, 6x. AND, when you overlay that with the disproportionate number of older, comorbidity deaths, the death rate for the other subset (healthier, younger) is much, much lower. (Maybe in the flu range, but more data is needed.)

To us, there is a huge difference between a 10% mortality rate (dividing the deaths by the number of positives with zero known undiagnosed cases), a 2% rate, and a .6% rate (dividing the deaths by total infections [diagnosed or antibody proven]) - especially when those are concentrated in particular vulnerable sections of the population. 

This Dutch data - if confirmed by other high quality studies - allows us to make a more informed decision.

Interesting!

Data is interesting, until you have people directly impacted by the data.

Full disclosure, my friends and family are in the NYC hot zones.

Cousin in East Elmhurst has seen enough of his friends.

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

It keepS you grounded.

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

Goosegg posted:

Some informative data today from a Dutch study. This goes to the percentage of pop infected (by assessing antibodies). [The greater the percentage of previously unknown cases, the lower the mortality rate; the lower the mortality rate the better [duh].]

Netherlands has released a study about percentage of pop who have antibodies: 30,000/million [3%].  (Coronavirus live updates: Trump to unveil reopening guidelines, China races toward a vaccine - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/1...us-live-updates.html)

The Dutch have identified 1700/million as positives during infection. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Extrapolating that means there are app 18 unknown infections (meaning asymptomatic, or cases which resolved without the person seeking medical attention [mild]) to 1 known case. (Most speculation I have seen from infectious disease experts (as opposed to pundits) had hypothesized between 10 and 30 to 1. So, pretty close.) Herd immunity for this type of infectious agent is 40 - 70% of pop.

Further calculations (because my wife and I were trying to figure out what info we would need to decide to resume activities [while still washing our hands, touching face, etc.]: Netherlands death rate is about .6% of total. ([3% of pop] infected, [193/mil dead, 30,000/mil infected]). Flu is .1%. So, 6x. AND, when you overlay that with the disproportionate number of older, comorbidity deaths, the death rate for the other subset (healthier, younger) is much, much lower. (Maybe in the flu range, but more data is needed.)

To us, there is a huge difference between a 10% mortality rate (dividing the deaths by the number of positives with zero known undiagnosed cases), a 2% rate, and a .6% rate (dividing the deaths by total infections [diagnosed or antibody proven]) - especially when those are concentrated in particular vulnerable sections of the population. 

This Dutch data - if confirmed by other high quality studies - allows us to make a more informed decision.

Interesting!

Great news!  Thank you. 

Here's a good read. Just a sample of some of the research going on within the scientific community. Definitely one worth pursuing since respiratory illness caused by bacterial infection brought on by COVID is actually what kills most people.

https://www.livescience.com/co...culosis-vaccine.html

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

Is that the same guy who said on April 2nd he didn't have enough ventilators to last six days? And that the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators needed to fight COVID-19?

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

Is that the same guy who said on April 2nd he didn't have enough ventilators to last six days? And that the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators needed to fight COVID-19?

Sorry, not a political fight! Just poking fun!

Re-open?  

I'm in Southern California.  Nearly every day I go to the grocery store to buy food for dinner.  The gas station across the parking lot has cars at each pump.  The 7-11 has a steady stream of customers.  The grocery store across the street has a nearly full parking lot.  On the way home I pass Home Depot which is bustling (Ace Hardware too), then the post office which is also bustling.  Many, many restaurants have take out stations with employees running back and forth as cars pull up.  

The bank is open if I need to go in.  The fabric store is open.  The vet is open.  My accountant did my taxes via email.  Gardner's are busy cutting neighbors' lawns up and down the street.  UPS and Fed Ex are busy delivering packages.  Realtors have figured out how to show houses virtually.  People are walking dogs, jogging.  

Schools are closed but kids are working on-line, the gym is closed so I run and do calisthenics at home.

I'm not saying it isn't bad - it is, but it's hit certain industries really bad and others hardly at all.  Disneyland is closed.  Hotels, sit-down restaurants are closed.  Manufacturing, travel are taking a huge hit.  I'm not sure how these can re-open quickly.  Maybe they re-open at a greatly reduced capacity to allow lots of space and gradually increase capacity as time goes on.

Smitty28 posted:

Re-open?  

I'm in Southern California.  Nearly every day I go to the grocery store to buy food for dinner.  The gas station across the parking lot has cars at each pump.  The 7-11 has a steady stream of customers.  The grocery store across the street has a nearly full parking lot.  On the way home I pass Home Depot which is bustling (Ace Hardware too), then the post office which is also bustling.  Many, many restaurants have take out stations with employees running back and forth as cars pull up.  

The bank is open if I need to go in.  The fabric store is open.  The vet is open.  My accountant did my taxes via email.  Gardner's are busy cutting neighbors' lawns up and down the street.  UPS and Fed Ex are busy delivering packages.  Realtors have figured out how to show houses virtually.  People are walking dogs, jogging.  

Schools are closed but kids are working on-line, the gym is closed so I run and do calisthenics at home.

I'm not saying it isn't bad - it is, but it's hit certain industries really bad and others hardly at all.  Disneyland is closed.  Hotels, sit-down restaurants are closed.  Manufacturing, travel are taking a huge hit.  I'm not sure how these can re-open quickly.  Maybe they re-open at a greatly reduced capacity to allow lots of space and gradually increase capacity as time goes on.

 

Glad to hear this. The media portrays it differently. 

Basically the same here in South Florida. I think this is the norm for many. My bank is closed but I use the teller or online banking.

Many people I know are working from home.

But here we depend upon tourism. I doubt that is going to happen for awhile.

I just miss going to the mall, hair salon for a cut and mani pedi. Sounds selfish but since my husband is a severe asthmatic, I stay home so I don't get sick. And it's almost 90 and our pools and beaches are closed!

Everyday brings some amazing advances.

While it's clear that many businesses (deemed essential) are functioning and many who can work from home are continuing to receive paychecks [my son, daughter-in-law, and daughter among them), there are the everyday service businesses which are closed (dentists, gyms, bowling alleys, hair salons, restaurants, to name a few). [In my personal case, our rock gym tenant is closed.]

The barrier for these types of businesses to open is the (lack) of ability to screen for those with immunity (assuming there is immunity conferred) or those who are infectious.

A team of scientists from Rutgers has introduced a saliva test to diagnose those with active infections. (https://www.foxnews.com/media/...oronavirus-spit-test)

I can see that test being simplified even more, so that the test can be read on the spot (i.e., think the old diabetes test strip or an at-home pregnancy kit). Taking it one step further, the immediately available test result is pinged to your phone, which you show the dentist, hair dresser, gym.

Presto - an at home detection system, not needing labs, medical personnel, or invasive procedures (like at home blood sugar tests); you know if you're infectious, the business knows also.

This would solve the "uncertainty problem" (who amongst us is typhoid Mary).

(Abbot is producing fast tests now (and ramping production), but it requires medical personnel.)

The next step is almost within grasp - and because the inventor of this type of at-home test will be rich beyond her wildest dreams, you can be sure there is quite a race occurring.

So, to recap: a working saliva test is in the market. We just need to make the test easily doable from home with results instantaneous. Do that, and the fear and uncertainty are reduced to a point where most will feel comfortable to fully resume consuming.

https://www.washingtontimes.co...-despite-loose-rule/

Meanwhile, Sweeden is seeing a plateau in cases.  They have gone from a peak of 728 cases on April 9th to cases in the 400's since the 11th.  Sweeden has not placed any restrictions on its population.  

This site says Sweden had over 600 cases yesterday  - its fourth highest day yet. Moreover, compare Sweden to its neighbors Norway and Finland. Sweden has over 6x number of per capita deaths than Norway, while testing a fraction of Norway. And 10x deaths of Finland.

https://www.worldometers.info/...irus/country/sweden/

From your article: "Although the government has not issued a stay-at-home order, many Swedes have decided to quarantine and practice social distancing on their own volition, Dr. Tegnell said."

So, the people are doing social distancing, quarantining, and the government restricted people eating in restaurants. But, other than that your point is proven.

d-mac posted:

https://www.washingtontimes.co...-despite-loose-rule/

Meanwhile, Sweeden is seeing a plateau in cases.  They have gone from a peak of 728 cases on April 9th to cases in the 400's since the 11th.  Sweeden has not placed any restrictions on its population.  

Well, with respect, that is not really an accurate depiction.  Sweden has closed all high schools and universities, there are no bars serving, no concerts or professional sporting events, there are no games being played except without an audience, no gatherings of more than 50 people, there are big social distance practices in place as recommended by the Swedish CDC and people are generally staying away from each other.  Yes, there are some looser restrictions, but it is certainly not the "continue on as you were" scenario that many are portraying.

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13...-coronavirus-control

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

Is that the same guy who said on April 2nd he didn't have enough ventilators to last six days? And that the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators needed to fight COVID-19?

You are only thinking about people that are being hospitalized. 

There are many that don't go to the hospital as for they are told you don't want to be stuck in the ER.

Point 1 - friend works for Verizon, thought he might have it.  did self quarantine with help of daughters. It took to 10 days to get results (confirmed).

Lost appetite, no taste for food, felt tired and out of breath, mind tricks. Called FDNY-EMS, they told him you don't want to go to ER, provided him with spot test, 94% lung capacity.

Point 2 - just heard, another friend, very healthy, they had to break down her door.  Was in hospital for 3 day on ventilator, lost 13 pounds.

Having the ventilators were about being prepared.

Again, East Elmhurst, Teaneck were hotspots.

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-nyc

Perhaps some great news on the therapeutic front.  Gileads drug had some incredible (seemingly) results. Now, because of necessity, this isnt a controlled study. But, just wow on these results.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/...onding-to-treatment/

anotherparent posted:

I think restaurants will either survive or not, the larger questions are hotels and transportation.  That is much larger discretionary spending than a meal out, I think.  People are going to think twice about business or vacation travel for longer than they will think about eating a meal from a restaurant.

 A friend had to take a round trip over two days. She said the airport, plane and hotel were emptier than grocery and liquor stores. She said everyone (the handful of people) wore masks and gloves. She brought her own food and wipes. 

I can’t remember which previous pandemic it was or if it was after 9/11. Teleconferencing was big. Analysts said the business travel industry would never be the same. It returned.

The airline and hotel industry is in for a rough ride. But they’re big corporations. Most restaurants aren’t. They’re burnt toast. 

Goosegg posted:

Perhaps some great news on the therapeutic front.  Gileads drug had some incredible (seemingly) results. Now, because of necessity, this isnt a controlled study. But, just wow on these results.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/...onding-to-treatment/

Nice... that's the most encouraging read I"ve seen!

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

ABSORBER posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

Is that the same guy who said on April 2nd he didn't have enough ventilators to last six days? And that the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators needed to fight COVID-19?

You are only thinking about people that are being hospitalized. 

There are many that don't go to the hospital as for they are told you don't want to be stuck in the ER.

Point 1 - friend works for Verizon, thought he might have it.  did self quarantine with help of daughters. It took to 10 days to get results (confirmed).

Lost appetite, no taste for food, felt tired and out of breath, mind tricks. Called FDNY-EMS, they told him you don't want to go to ER, provided him with spot test, 94% lung capacity.

Point 2 - just heard, another friend, very healthy, they had to break down her door.  Was in hospital for 3 day on ventilator, lost 13 pounds.

Having the ventilators were about being prepared.

Again, East Elmhurst, Teaneck were hotspots.

 

https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-nyc

Huh? I think you missed my point! You said Gov Cuomo "makes decisions based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive." You then point out he is now sending about 150 ventilators to others places that may need them.

I was just poking fun of this because on April 2nd he stated he didn't have enough ventilators and essentially stated the federal government wasn't in position to ensure the country would have enough ventilators. I would say that he was not only being critical but also redirecting blame for NY's unpreparedness. 

But now's he's giving ventilators away. So I guess he did have enough. Or got them from somewhere else.

I was just making light of contradictions that have been made during serious times.

Smitty28 posted:

Re-open?  

I'm in Southern California.  Nearly every day I go to the grocery store to buy food for dinner.  The gas station across the parking lot has cars at each pump.  The 7-11 has a steady stream of customers.  The grocery store across the street has a nearly full parking lot.  On the way home I pass Home Depot which is bustling (Ace Hardware too), then the post office which is also bustling.  Many, many restaurants have take out stations with employees running back and forth as cars pull up.  

The bank is open if I need to go in.  The fabric store is open.  The vet is open.  My accountant did my taxes via email.  Gardner's are busy cutting neighbors' lawns up and down the street.  UPS and Fed Ex are busy delivering packages.  Realtors have figured out how to show houses virtually.  People are walking dogs, jogging.  

Schools are closed but kids are working on-line, the gym is closed so I run and do calisthenics at home.

I'm not saying it isn't bad - it is, but it's hit certain industries really bad and others hardly at all.  Disneyland is closed.  Hotels, sit-down restaurants are closed.  Manufacturing, travel are taking a huge hit.  I'm not sure how these can re-open quickly.  Maybe they re-open at a greatly reduced capacity to allow lots of space and gradually increase capacity as time goes on.

 

Maine has 24 deaths. There hasn’t been one the past two days. 23 were elderly. 1 was obese. Yet the governor is running the state in fear. Absolutely everything is shut down except grocery stores, pharmacies and gas stations. She already extended the shutdown to May 15th. A state with few deaths and none in the past two days is the first one to extend the shutdown. 

Goosegg posted:

Everyday brings some amazing advances.

While it's clear that many businesses (deemed essential) are functioning and many who can work from home are continuing to receive paychecks [my son, daughter-in-law, and daughter among them), there are the everyday service businesses which are closed (dentists, gyms, bowling alleys, hair salons, restaurants, to name a few). [In my personal case, our rock gym tenant is closed.]

The barrier for these types of businesses to open is the (lack) of ability to screen for those with immunity (assuming there is immunity conferred) or those who are infectious.

A team of scientists from Rutgers has introduced a saliva test to diagnose those with active infections. (https://www.foxnews.com/media/...oronavirus-spit-test)

I can see that test being simplified even more, so that the test can be read on the spot (i.e., think the old diabetes test strip or an at-home pregnancy kit). Taking it one step further, the immediately available test result is pinged to your phone, which you show the dentist, hair dresser, gym.

Presto - an at home detection system, not needing labs, medical personnel, or invasive procedures (like at home blood sugar tests); you know if you're infectious, the business knows also.

This would solve the "uncertainty problem" (who amongst us is typhoid Mary).

(Abbot is producing fast tests now (and ramping production), but it requires medical personnel.)

The next step is almost within grasp - and because the inventor of this type of at-home test will be rich beyond her wildest dreams, you can be sure there is quite a race occurring.

So, to recap: a working saliva test is in the market. We just need to make the test easily doable from home with results instantaneous. Do that, and the fear and uncertainty are reduced to a point where most will feel comfortable to fully resume consuming.

 

 

I’m all for getting on the ramp for back to normal. Too many people can’t be out of work for long and survive.

However, I was talking to my cousin yesterday. His medical speciality is virology. He said there are going to be a lot of false positives with those tests. He feels the tests will tell people chances are they don’t have COVID. But it won’t be close to absolute in the big picture.

His criticism of the tests developed this quickly is they’re built for a virus we don’t know that much about. But he didn’t argue against taking them.

Hes a doctor around COVID all day long in the NYC area. He’s also a lifelong asthmatic.

d-mac posted:

https://www.washingtontimes.co...-despite-loose-rule/

Meanwhile, Sweeden is seeing a plateau in cases.  They have gone from a peak of 728 cases on April 9th to cases in the 400's since the 11th.  Sweeden has not placed any restrictions on its population.  

Sweden is ranked 24th (of 185 countries in cases. Their death rate percentage is above normal. They are projected to currently be at the bottom of their upward slope with a projection of over 13,000 deaths in a country of 10,000,000. The part is starting rain on Sweden. 

When I read articles from the Washington Times the first thing I do is check who wrote then article. The Times does the same thing the Post does in the opposite direction. They provide slanted truths to meet their agenda. 

You can out together a lot of the story and cross check truths with these two sites ...

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu

https://covid19.healthdata.org

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16...g-america/index.html

Here is what Trump is presenting today. Can read all the phases and requirements, very interesting

I'm all in on this proposal!

Where is the "how" part?

Regardless of how it happens, this is what we can expect in the days to come. Easily predicted when we started this thing. The writing was on the wall.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16...me-orders/index.html

The reality is healthy people with no income or the means to provide for their families will always prevail over unhealthy, sick and dying people. Not trying to create a firestorm but I consider myself a realist. This is not my personal view but then that's easy for me to say because I'm working and still being paid.

Very positive data tonight on Remdesivir (Gilead) out of a Chicago study.  It's an antiviral, therefore, a therapeutic.   I know this isn't a stock board but stock is up 15% in the aftermarket and the futures are up 2.6% on the news.   I really do think that by end of summer we will have a few antivirals in the market to manage those infected, an antibody test to understand who has had the virus and hopefully be on our way back.   This is very positive news.

Open the hair salons first. I would even go to Super Cuts.

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

You lose all credibility with this post. 

So to summarize the last 20 or so posts. 
- the world isn’t going to end, 2 million people aren’t going to die, it isnt going to take 18 months for a vaccine, we have made huge strides to beat this but are hell bent on bankrupting people and screwing several generations of Americans so we can feel better about panicking and creating huge mess out of a legitimate problem.

in baseball terms we just walked the bases loaded and then booted a DP ball...nice work. 

old_school posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

You lose all credibility with this post. 

old_school posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and familypass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

You lose all credibility with this post. 

old_school posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

anotherparent posted:

CollegebaseballInsights posted:

New Rochelle is hot spot, 5 miles from my old stomping grounds, we've seen more than enough of friends and family pass away in the past 4 week.

Have enough friends that are 1st responders, teachers, NYPD and FDNY.

I'm so sorry.  Those of us not in such areas have such a different experience.  What I like about this board is that there are people from all over, we learn more than by reading the news.

The most important person to watch is daily briefing of Gov. Cuomo.   The other day he say, he makes decisions  based on facts of the medical community, he has no time to pick fights with the president as for it is counterproductive. 

He is sending about 150 ventilators to other cities to michigan and one other city that is seeing spikes.

 

CT, NJ, NY,MA and the other states in the Northeast are working on a plan to open up business.  Many are interconnected via mass transit.   A friend of mine does Amtrak real estate projects for the Northeast corridor, thus the coordination is massive.

 

 

 

You lose all credibility with this post. 

Cuomo has had some good and bad moments. It’s been mostly good. He was really good on his brother’s show last night. He was honest. When Chris was leading him Andrew would respond he won’t be baited. He also told Chris he didn’t quote Trump. He restated him in a contentious manner. 

old_school posted:

So to summarize the last 20 or so posts. 
- the world isn’t going to end, 2 million people aren’t going to die, it isnt going to take 18 months for a vaccine, we have made huge strides to beat this but are hell bent on bankrupting people and screwing several generations of Americans so we can feel better about panicking and creating huge mess out of a legitimate problem.

in baseball terms we just walked the bases loaded and then booted a DP ball...nice work. 

1) Maybe.  There are some hopeful signs.  No one knows yet.

2) Few governors (or presidents) would gamble with many thousands of lives.  Perhaps they had more information than you or I.  More than me, anyhow.

Have "known" you for a while here old_school and I don't want to pick a fight.  But  it's mighty early for "I told you so."  I hope we look back in a few months and wonder what we were so concerned about.  My guess is that historians will be debating even decades from now whether the world overreacted.  But it's only a guess, because (as Yogi may or may not have said) the future is still the hardest thing to predict.