@Dadbelly2023 posted:Are there some D1 programs that are insulated from this trend? Say Rice or Pepperdine or wiiliam mary where the need for academic fit reduces the juco and transfer portal mix?
Rice brought in four, W&M one, and Pepperdine one. I know some students that went to Pepperdine and they all had problems with their concurrent classes not transferring out of high school. That could majorly hinder programs that are strict about credits transferring.
….it’s all just completely relative. There are 300+ D3 programs, the bottom 20% of those will very happily add a solid baseball player to their roster at pretty much any point, provided they can get through admissions.
Actually getting on the field and playing versus being on the roster is an entirely different thing of course, even at some of the worst D3 programs.
I would go so far as to say if you are a relatively solid baseball player, with relatively decent grades and you cannot find a D3 program anywhere in the country to play for, you either:
a) didn’t really try very hard to get your name and what you can offer out there
or
b) you are somewhat clueless
or
c) you weren’t willing to go halfway across the country to the middle of nowhere to play Baseball.
@adbono posted:I’m not sure if insulated would be the right word, but there are certainly schools (like the ones you mentioned - and most D3s) that are not as transfer player orientated. However, even some schools that have traditionally not taken transfers are starting to loosen their belt on that issue.
A P5 coach who's recruiting my son told us last weekend that, "If you're not a player in the transfer portal you're getting passed by. Its here to stay and if a player will help us get to Omaha, we will take him."
@adbono posted:This is a generalization, but here is the perspective of a typical JuCo regarding the class of ‘23 recruits. (Using a top 50 D1 Texas JuCo as an example) : Currently have 10 commits. Many other offers outstanding. Still need a SS & LHP. There are 24 scholarships to give at this school, so assuming 12 per year on average, the ‘23 class is almost down to walk-on offers. Lesser programs, and programs in colder regions of the country, may not be this far along.
One thing that many people don’t understand about college baseball recruiting is that there is a fiscal component to it at many schools. And this is true in JuCo, D3, D2, D1 & NAIA. At many schools the sports programs (including baseball) have minimum target numbers that are given to them by Athletic Directors in order to generate tuition revenue for the schools. That’s why walk-on offers are so dicey. You may be really wanted but the school is out of money. Or you may only be wanted because you are willing to pay full tuition. You best know which category you fall into when considering a walk-on offer. And this is exactly where most players/parents fail to read the tea leaves accurately.
And finally, I will reiterate something I said months back. A lot of D1/D2 schools don’t currently want to recruit HS seniors. They would rather have experienced players out of JuCo or the transfer portal. There are many reasons for this but some of the main ones are : players with college experience are more ready to make an immediate impact, JuCo & portal players have already had the attitude of entitlement knocked out them and they are hungry, and more of these players can be lured in with less financial commitment. Simply put, players with college experience are realistic and HS players are not. Last weekend I attended the Texas/New Mexico JuCo All Star Games at DBU. There were more than a dozen MLB scouts and over 100 4 year schools in attendance looking for players. The talent level was very impressive - especially the position players. And many of these players don’t have deals yet. Just saying, times are still tough for ‘23 HS recruits.
spoke w/ a dad of a boy that played w/ my son for the last 3 summers. He committed early to a JUCO in OK. I asked how it was going and he said "he's probably going to redshirt or transfer, they have 6 catchers on campus and 5 of them are sophomores or redshirt freshman"..............and he answered my next question was "yes we asked, but he was one of the 1st to commit, and then all these other kids either walked on or transferred as only 2 were returners from last year".
Bottom line, GO WHERE YOU KNOW YOU WILL PLAY.
@russinfortworth posted:spoke w/ a dad of a boy that played w/ my son for the last 3 summers. He committed early to a JUCO in OK. I asked how it was going and he said "he's probably going to redshirt or transfer, they have 6 catchers on campus and 5 of them are sophomores or redshirt freshman"..............and he answered my next question was "yes we asked, but he was one of the 1st to commit, and then all these other kids either walked on or transferred as only 2 were returners from last year".
Bottom line, GO WHERE YOU KNOW YOU WILL PLAY.
I completely agree. Especially with your last sentence. However, I will add that I believe it’s harder now (than ever before) to get a good read on playing time probability until you are on campus and part of the program. Too many moving parts and situations can change overnight
2024 recently attended a P5 camp. They had a recruiting talk for parents. During Q&A a parent asked, "How many players do you take from the transfer portal?" The coach answered, "I would take 35 twenty-three year olds if I could, because I know we will be back in Omaha".
@adbono posted:This is a generalization, but here is the perspective of a typical JuCo regarding the class of ‘23 recruits. (Using a top 50 D1 Texas JuCo as an example) : Currently have 10 commits. Many other offers outstanding. Still need a SS & LHP. There are 24 scholarships to give at this school, so assuming 12 per year on average, the ‘23 class is almost down to walk-on offers. Lesser programs, and programs in colder regions of the country, may not be this far along.
The juco landscape by me is wildly different but when are kids committing to top 50 jucos and what type of players are they?
Are they the late bloomers, the not quite D1 guys, or the D1 walk-on guys? Would they be committing as juniors or seniors?
Up by me they are mostly tweeners who are "talking to D1s" but only have no money offers from D2s and D3s, or are fringe players who don't have the grades/scores to go to a D3 with semi competitive admissions. Nobody is ever really excited to commit to one.
The good players are drop downs who are coming home to play. Grades, playing time, and walk on cuts are the main culprits.
@PABaseball posted:The juco landscape by me is wildly different but when are kids committing to top 50 jucos and what type of players are they?
Are they the late bloomers, the not quite D1 guys, or the D1 walk-on guys? Would they be committing as juniors or seniors?
Up by me they are mostly tweeners who are "talking to D1s" but only have no money offers from D2s and D3s, or are fringe players who don't have the grades/scores to go to a D3 with semi competitive admissions. Nobody is ever really excited to commit to one.
The good players are drop downs who are coming home to play. Grades, playing time, and walk on cuts are the main culprits.
In JuCo hotbed areas (like Texas) players are committing to good JuCo programs the summer before their senior year typically. With later commits happening in the fall. And they are not fringe players. They are among the best HS players in the state. Many are capable of developing into solid D1 players.
@PABaseball posted:The juco landscape by me is wildly different but when are kids committing to top 50 jucos and what type of players are they?
Are they the late bloomers, the not quite D1 guys, or the D1 walk-on guys? Would they be committing as juniors or seniors?
Up by me they are mostly tweeners who are "talking to D1s" but only have no money offers from D2s and D3s, or are fringe players who don't have the grades/scores to go to a D3 with semi competitive admissions. Nobody is ever really excited to commit to one.
The good players are drop downs who are coming home to play. Grades, playing time, and walk on cuts are the main culprits.
Son's team was top 5 the last two years. The core HS recruits were guys who were very good HS players who were under recruited for some reason. For pitchers it was a lot of guys who threw around 86 but could really pitch. Guys who turned down lower D1 offers for the chance at better and it usually worked out. For hitters it was a lot of times size or lack of a position, but they could hit. They add strength and velocity and now you have guys throwing 93-94 who can pitch and guys who can mash up and down the lineup. Then we added a lot of D1 drop downs mostly from the SEC. Some were good and some couldn't play there either. Our best pitchers were our HS recruits, hitters were a little mixed between HS and D1 drop downs. The first year it was more HS kids, the 2nd year the D1 drop downs were the better hitters. He committed the Summer after his Jr year and he drug them along for probably 6 months. In hindsight he was committing to two years of baseball camp and he would have committed the day he was offered if he knew then what he knows now.
@Tres Elakes 24 posted:2024 recently attended a P5 camp. They had a recruiting talk for parents. During Q&A a parent asked, "How many players do you take from the transfer portal?" The coach answered, "I would take 35 twenty-three year olds if I could, because I know we will be back in Omaha".
And this offends most but if I was the coach I and most everyone else would do the same. I think you will still find the best getting playing time but trying to go above your head is not smart in today's world.
@PitchingFan posted:And this offends most but if I was the coach I and most everyone else would do the same. I think you will still find the best getting playing time but trying to go above your head is not smart in today's world.
Sure, but the coach also said "if I could" He can't, and if every P5 school tried to it's not a sustainable model.
I don't know. Every P5 could take 15 and still have guys left untransferred. There are 3 SEC schools who took 11, 3 others who took 10 and there are pages of guys in the portal that have not gone anywhere. I got tired of trying to count them but I'm guessing 300 plus who are left in the portal or have not reported in D1Baseball where they landed.
Last weekend in the St. Louis area 2024 was playing for the first time since July, and there were a number of colleges in attendance scouting players. I personally saw one D1 school, a couple of D2's, several D3's, 2 JUCO's, and no NAIA's at our games. This tournament was spread over several colleges, a minor league park, and two college wood bat parks, so it is probably safe to say that there were a number of schools out looking.
After our first game, coaches from a local D2 were talking to our HC about their interest in one of our 2023's.
Coaches from one of the JUCO's had their eye on the 2023 pitcher we faced in the second game. I've talked to the coaches before at games, and he asked me if I had ever seen this pitcher before. I hadn't, but another parent told them he had and said he was always a tough competitor. He pitched well and CubsSon took the loss.
After the game a D3 coach approached our son and they had a good conversation. It was a program 2024 had emailed with some video but had never heard back from. You never know...
My kid's HA D3 grabbed a transfer, a rare event I was told by son, in the rare moments he used more than 4 words in a conversation with me. The 2023s the kid played with or are friends with, few have D1 offers, several are pending offers or recently committed to D3.
@adbono posted:In JuCo hotbed areas (like Texas) players are committing to good JuCo programs the summer before their senior year typically. With later commits happening in the fall. And they are not fringe players. They are among the best HS players in the state. Many are capable of developing into solid D1 players.
Not doubting the quality - just wondering why they aren't going to D1 schools out of HS? Are the D1 offers not there or are they being told the juco route is the better route to go?
@PABaseball posted:Not doubting the quality - just wondering why they aren't going to D1 schools out of HS? Are the D1 offers not there or are they being told the juco route is the better route to go?
Lots of D1 programs in the sunshine states are prioritizing transfer portal and JuCo recruits over HS players. In this region of the country more are doing that than aren’t. So there aren’t as many HS kids being recruited. The smart (realistic) HS players know this and are not reluctant to commit to good JuCo programs before their senior year in HS.
@PABaseball posted:Not doubting the quality - just wondering why they aren't going to D1 schools out of HS? Are the D1 offers not there or are they being told the juco route is the better route to go?
There are A LOT of kids committing to D1's who will never see the field at those schools. If you aren't a stud (or targeting a school for academics), Juco is the way to go for most kids. Much better chances of getting playing time your first 2 years.
@adbono posted:In JuCo hotbed areas (like Texas) players are committing to good JuCo programs the summer before their senior year typically. With later commits happening in the fall. And they are not fringe players. They are among the best HS players in the state. Many are capable of developing into solid D1 players.
This…
if baseball is the dream, this is the quickest, most flexible and cheapest way to get that figured out.
if you can help a D1 win, they’ll find you… if you project to be a pro ball player, they’ll find you…
As frequently discussed on this board, the Sunshine States have exceptional Juco programs that prepare the player for a 4 year program. It's almost like being recruited from the portal, the players have game experience and 2 years of college. Very desirable. And if it's a lottery state like Florida, tuition is very affordable.
Please note the California JC web site. A "great" option for the HS student athlete.
SRJC has five former players now on MLB rosters. The school is also ranked Academic in the Top 10% in the Nation. The "key" is transferable credits.
https://www.cccbca.com/landing/index.
Bob
As has been stated, d3's in the Northeast truly do recruit into the spring of recruits senior year. That goes for the best programs as well. They have no roster limits and often have jv teams, so they can take a flyer on a kid who can get accepted to the school. But the bulk is finished by December after that it's more the taking a flyer route, more reminiscent of an invited walk-on.
That being said, I still see kids who over think their talents, all you have to do is find their twitter posts from a few years back, all saying they are going D3, because they will play "right away" and you see their stats and they haven't or have barely seen the field the past two years. Based on their posts, I guess they thought they were D1 but went where they would play, or kids still have a stigma about D3 and seem to need to give a reason they're "only going" D3. D3 is a numbers game and if you don't work your tail off to see the field, they'll just pull someone else off their jv roster who shows better.
I have seen some d1 transfers to several of my son's D3 conference schools. Not tons, but it is happening as kids move closer to home and want to see the field.
Kid's HS teammate was named back up SS for his P5 team. A check on the win column for 2022.
I know of one player that was offered this past week, by a DI team that was in the Regionals. If a player has the talent, there are still opportunities.
@TPM posted:I am curious. Did they have their end of fall practice meetings with players?
I asked my kid and he told me the coach did meet with his former HS teammate and provided feedback. It looks like he will get some time in spring if the continues to develop.
I think team fall exits were early this year because of the portal window. It starts Dec.1.
My 2020's were at least 2 weeks ago. My 2022's haven't happened yet. But neither program are known for making fall cuts.
Ours happened 2 weeks ago. Cuts, gray shirts, redshirts.
Cuts happen in D1 when a coach brings in more than the allowed 35 man roster (or a few more if they have covid seniors). I don't understand why a coach would redshirt anyone before season unless they were hurt. You never know what will happen.
This might be a good question to ask during recruiting.
JMO
I'm with you TPM. Under the old system, you could only redshirt so many during a season or maybe none unless they got hurt but under the new system I would wait until it was all over and done. One bad weekend could take you out.
I've known players to be told they would "redshirt" who didn't have athletic scholarships. In other words, they were competing to be one of the 8 non-athletic-money players. Maybe that's a "grayshirt"? I think I remember hearing that some were told this before they arrived on campus, this was presented as, they would spend the first year working out and getting stronger. Did not turn out well. So even if you asked a coach during recruiting, it might be presented to you as a good thing.
The sad part of a pre-season redshirt is they don't get to do anything with the team. They have to do it all alone or with the other redshirts which is not good. You have all the resources physically but very little to none of the assitance. Over the years I have watched them and they look so sad out there. A few guys trying to pitch to each other and hit ground balls or fly balls to each other. They can't workout with the team. If you are not driven, it is a very lonely place to be.
PF brings up a good point, if you are not listed on the team roster, you are not part of the team. There are many players that don't get athletic money, but do get academic money but are on the roster.
In lottery states, this is common especially when the player is from instate and COA is relatively reasonable. But they are still part of the 35 man team.
Why would a coach tell someone in advance of coming they will redshirt?
So this, IMO is still a good question to ask. Plus, ask, will I be part of the 35 man roster?
FWIW, redshirt is essentially a term used to designate how many years the players has available to play.
I think this happens because people just have no clue how it works.
Well, you used to know, to some extent. All you had to look at was how many were in your recruiting class. Now, do you need to know how many were in the recruiting class, and guess how many transfers are coming over.
Last year our school had a recruiting class of 14. Five are left. Our school has taken lots of transfers.
We had a P5 school that told youngest son they would redshirt him and all except 1 of their freshmen. We put them at the end of the list but did not tell them just in case. I guess it would not have hurt since it was 2020 so everybody got redshirted. I have meant to go back and look to see what they did with that class. Knowing them, they redshirted both that class and the next.
Schools (especially D1s) over recruit for a number of reasons. Primarily because they can get away with it b/c of the over supply of good players. But also b/c they miss on half of their recruits. So they play the odds. If they need 6 they bring in 12 not knowing which of the 6 they really want to keep. And tuition revenue factors into it also. The primary reason to bring in 50 players in the fall, when the roster limit is 35, is that you have 15 extra players paying full tuition to the school. Even if it’s just for the fall semester that’s at least 150k in tuition revenue. If they can convince those fringe players to redshirt or grayshirt the revenue stream continues. Apply that principle to every sport across the board and it adds up in a hurry. University administrators have figured this out. You can ask about this all you like during recruiting but you won’t get an honest answer. I promise you that. You have to dig to get the truth about how any school manages their roster.
We have had this discussion before, over and over. While I agree there are some programs that do this, it's not across the board. If a program can't recruit well, we'll they have a problem so get rid of the guys who do that job, especially in P5 programs.
Try bringing in 50 in the fall with half the coaches out on the road recruiting and trying to end up with a decent winning program.
Or try fully funding your programs and it won't happen.
My opinions are based on the reality of what is actually happening. Not the way things should be. I have personally spoken to enough D1 coaches about this subject to know exactly what they are doing. And why.
@adbono posted:My opinions are based on the reality of what is actually happening. Not the way things should be. I have personally spoken to enough D1 coaches about this subject to know exactly what they are doing. And why.
You speak to your region, NOT how it is everywhere. I don't know a single DI school in my area of the midwest that makes that large of cuts, if any. Yes, most are mid-majors but some are P5 schools. This definitely seems to be mostly a Texas or mostly a southern thing.
@baseballmom01 posted:You speak to your region, NOT how it is everywhere. I don't know a single DI school in my area of the midwest that makes that large of cuts, if any. Yes, most are mid-majors but some are P5 schools. This definitely seems to be mostly a Texas or mostly a southern thing.
It’s a competitive thing. Not a regional thing. The more competitive the program the more this goes on. There are more competitive programs in Texas and in the south than in the Midwest or the Northeast. So if it’s more prevalent here that’s the reason.
