The One College Baseball Stat You Can't Google

Almost every committed recruit at top fifty programs are 9’s or 10’s. Given there are typically about 14 incoming freshmen and 18-20 players who receive reasonable playing time it’s inevitable 50% of recruits aren’t going to be a fit at their first choice.

What coach wants to share this information? Who wants to track it? You can calculate the stat by doing the research on any program that shows interest or makes an offer.

You seem to be looking for some sort of guarantee that doesn’t exist. It’s important to hear exactly what is being said during recruitment and not twist it into what you want to hear. Then, you have to do your research and go with your instincts.

I’m guessing a lot of college players and son’s of posters on the board fit my son’s mold. He wasn’t recruited to be a freshman, starter stud. Someone else wasn’t getting the job done. Mid season he stepped in and got it done. Had other players met expectations my son’s college baseball experience might have been completely different.

My son was partially lucky (other’s failed providing opportunity) and completely mentally and physically ready when the opportunity arose.

Kid didn't take advantage of his opportunities. Kid did not like the bench and lacked the maturity to deal with it. Kid couldn't handle the course work. Kid got a taste of parties without parental oversight.

@RJM posted:

What coach wants to share this information? Who wants to track it? You can calculate the stat by doing the research on any program that shows interest or makes an offer.

You seem to be looking for some sort of guarantee that doesn’t exist.

I'm not looking for the guarantee. More so, I'm looking for the actual statistical measure that validates what I have been hearing and others have been saying...that there is no guarantee and that the odds are unfavorable.

CollegeBaseballInsights has info on player attrition, both for freshmen and overall, but you can't just google it, you have to subscribe.  CBI has posted some of this kind data on here, e.g.:

https://community.hsbaseballwe...99#65782544860895999

I think, though, that their data is players who were on the roster freshman year but not the next.  Not the ones who were cut/moved out before/after fall of freshman year.  They also list the number of transfers and JUCO transfers, also pretty enlightening.

@Francis7 posted:

Kid was can't miss. PG Grade was 9. Signed a NLI as a HS senior to a P5 legendary baseball program. Class of 2020. And, he's now playing at a Juco.

1. You've been on this board long enough to know the PG ratings mean absolutely nothing.

2. If he's a 2020 this would only be his first semester of college. How is he already playing at a juco?

Perhaps he was advised to go JUCO because 2020 draft was so small. 

Doesnt mean that something necessarily happened.  Maybe it was the plan all along to not play in college, but was using his committment as leverage.  That's what many players do.

And no reason to have such statistics.

I know a kid who was committed to a top 10 type powerHouse as a freshman, got decommited as a JR but committed to a different P5 shortly there after, got decommitted from there and is at a struggling mid major not being a superstar....has nothing to do with talent.

happens every year.

@PABaseball posted:

1. You've been on this board long enough to know the PG ratings mean absolutely nothing.

2. If he's a 2020 this would only be his first semester of college. How is he already playing at a juco?

9/20 = freshman year. Was supposed to go P5. At Juco now instead.

It's an easy statistic to calulate, look at the signing class that made it to campus in the fall and see who is there in the spring.  And again who is there the next year.  Most of the elite programs have the info available.

schools don't brag on how many players fail to make the cut because it would jeopardize the pipeline.  Reality might hurt the dream.

it doesn't matter to most top players because they haven't not been the Man and think they will still be in college.  Failure is too foreign to even consider.  Typically 50% are wrong.  Choose wisely.

@anotherparent posted:

CollegeBaseballInsights has info on player attrition, both for freshmen and overall, but you can't just google it, you have to subscribe.  CBI has posted some of this kind data on here, e.g.:

https://community.hsbaseballwe...99#65782544860895999

I think, though, that their data is players who were on the roster freshman year but not the next.  Not the ones who were cut/moved out before/after fall of freshman year.  They also list the number of transfers and JUCO transfers, also pretty enlightening.

@anotherparent

you are correct.

We view the college baseball fall season similar to MLB spring season, it is not the official roster, thus we've chosen not to capture this information.

In August, we rolled out the following Team Roster Turnover Insight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Nmx6pBgf5k

Just one reminder. There are lots of non-athletes (or NARPs as, I think, I am affectionately called in my family) who transfer after freshman year or even during freshman year. Classes are too hard or too easy, they hate the party scene or lack thereof... too far from home, too close to home, changed majors and the school doesn't have it, roommate sucks, the food is bad, just a bad fit altogether... National college retention rate from freshman to sophomore year is 75-78% (according to the google machine). When you layer on playing a sport you're adding the additional variables of the culture of the team, how you fit in the lineup, coaches, injury, how you developed in the time between your commitment and showing up on campus, how your teammates developed in the time between their commitment and showing up on campus and just how damn hard being a student-athlete is. And since March, COVID.

When making the college decision, you can do all the research in the world, you can even be totally loved coming in. But that doesn't mean it's going to all work out the way you think it is. You can minimize risk but you can't eliminate it.

I agree that a high level of attrition could be a red flag. I think publishing the stat could also be misleading without background information. JMHO

@PTWood posted:

Just one reminder. There are lots of non-athletes (or NARPs as, I think, I am affectionately called in my family) who transfer after freshman year or even during freshman year. Classes are too hard or too easy, they hate the party scene or lack thereof... too far from home, too close to home, changed majors and the school doesn't have it, roommate sucks, the food is bad, just a bad fit altogether... National college retention rate from freshman to sophomore year is 75-78% (according to the google machine). When you layer on playing a sport you're adding the additional variables of the culture of the team, how you fit in the lineup, coaches, injury, how you developed in the time between your commitment and showing up on campus, how your teammates developed in the time between their commitment and showing up on campus and just how damn hard being a student-athlete is. And since March, COVID.

When making the college decision, you can do all the research in the world, you can even be totally loved coming in. But that doesn't mean it's going to all work out the way you think it is. You can minimize risk but you can't eliminate it.

I agree that a high level of attrition could be a red flag. I think publishing the stat could also be misleading without background information. JMHO

I agree with your points,Key performance indicators provide an opening to ask the coach additional questions. Such information can be valuable when comparing schools within a conference.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@anotherparent

you are correct.

We view the college baseball fall season similar to MLB spring season, it is not the official roster, thus we've chosen not to capture this information.

In August, we rolled out the following Team Roster Turnover Insight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Nmx6pBgf5k

Video is missing

@PTWood posted:

National college retention rate from freshman to sophomore year is 75-78% (according to the google machine). When you layer on playing a sport you're adding the additional variables of the culture of the team, how you fit in the lineup, coaches, injury, how you developed in the time between your commitment and showing up on campus, how your teammates developed in the time between their commitment and showing up on campus and just how damn hard being a student-athlete is. And since March, COVID.

Makes the 50% estimate seem reasonable.

At the end of the day, knowing that the number is between 25 and 50% of not sticking, I guess a person's risk tolerance is a big factor? Some may see it as "Go for it and worst case is that I will transfer out" whereas others may think "Finding a fit the first time was a process that I would rather not repeat" (and they would not swing big and aim lower).

Personally, based on what's been shared with respect to the current status of the transfer portal, I would recommend staying away from having to rely on a transfer to keep playing. But, maybe that's just me not understanding everything correctly?

I'm not really sure what you're asking. Nobody goes in thinking - there's a 50% chance I'm out of here in the next two years.

There isn't a risk tolerance or some secondary thought process. Sometimes a kid gets to campus and isn't good enough. Sometimes there is a lingering injury where they never get completely right and it reflects in their performance. Sometimes the player and the coach bump heads. Sometimes new coach(es) are brought in and they need to clean house. Sometimes a player never belonged. Sometimes a kid doesn't make the travel roster and says if I went somewhere else I'd be traveling. Sometimes a kid can't afford the school anymore. Sometimes a scholarship isn't renewed at the same rate.

I've seen a lot transfer because they pulled a muscle or strained something in the fall and got shut down. By the time they were healthy, others had passed them by or they didn't show enough in the short time they were back.

It's not something to worry about until it is

@Francis7 posted:

But, why is it that this number...percentage...the ratio...is not something that is tracked and shared? It seems to be a fairly telling statistic that should be public knowledge.

Is it too hard to track? Or, is it that schools don't want this to be well known? Something else?

You would need commitments, NLI signings, college registrations and official rosters to derive that number. Even then it wouldn't be perfect because of other factors like academic eligibility and injuries. I did the math for a couple of schools that my son was interested in when I was at my most obsessed (much less variability at most D3s).

I think NLI and registration information is private data unless the individual chooses to share it, so I'm not sure this would even be possible on a large scale.

Even with your one example, so many things are unknown:
Did he actually sign an NLI, or just a piece of paper?
Was he counting on getting drafted and Covid ruined his plans?
Maybe a scout convinced him he'd be drafted in 2021 if he went juco?
Maybe his admission was based on improving grades or test scores in senior HS year and he didn't?
Maybe his scholarship was 25% and the family financial situation changed?

I think what @Francis7 was getting at is that if you are OK with change and have a high tolerance for risk, then you might go for your athletic "reach" school even if you know they have high attrition or that you will be in a fight for your life to play. If you have a low tolerance for risk and do not like change, you might chose a "safety" school...much like people do academically. Being able to determine which is which required some honesty, self-reflection and possibly some tough love support from outside.

I think what is really hard (and happens a lot) is when people either think they are at their safety school or at least in their sweet spot and things still don't work out.

@PTWood posted:

I think what @Francis7 was getting at is that if you are OK with change and have a high tolerance for risk, then you might go for your athletic "reach" school even if you know they have high attrition or that you will be in a fight for your life to play. If you have a low tolerance for risk and do not like change, you might chose a "safety" school...much like people do academically. Being able to determine which is which required some honesty, self-reflection and possibly some tough love support from outside.

Bingo!

@Francis7 posted:

Video is missing

@francis7 we had two videos, took the old one down.  Here is a up-to-date link.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDyppKRbmo8

@Francis7 posted:

Bingo!

IMHO, the objective is to dangle the bait for fall student enrollment ($$$). It would not be in the school's best interest to provide said data points for transparency.

Fall -  school has 45 - 50 people trying out.   Their spring roster normally has 30 - 35 players, simple math

15 student-athletes will be cut, but the school has fall (maybe spring) revenue from the family.

Francis7:  That high # (50%) is due to the fact that a number of student athletes commit to a school, baseball-wise. If baseball doesn't work out, they depart. If the sample was of players who decision was a combination of academic (college major) and baseball, the number would be much smaller. I remember our HS golf coach asking one of his players (college recruit) if he would he still like that same school, if the golfer would have an injury eliminating the sport soon after arriving.  Just a thought...

@PTWood posted:

I think what @Francis7 was getting at is that if you are OK with change and have a high tolerance for risk, then you might go for your athletic "reach" school even if you know they have high attrition or that you will be in a fight for your life to play. If you have a low tolerance for risk and do not like change, you might chose a "safety" school...much like people do academically. Being able to determine which is which required some honesty, self-reflection and possibly some tough love support from outside.

I think what is really hard (and happens a lot) is when people either think they are at their safety school or at least in their sweet spot and things still don't work out.

Anyone who goes in thinking, “If it doesn’t work out ....” already has one foot out the door and likely won’t last. Once the decision is made the player has to be all in mentally. Everyone knows there are fixes if the situation doesn’t work. But they can’t be on the mind until the player understands it’s not working where he is.

When you lose you figure out how to get back on track and win. I don’t know any successful people who ever went into a situation with the attitude, “If I lose .... If I don’t belong .... If I fail ....”

@TPM posted:

Perhaps he was advised to go JUCO because 2020 draft was so small.

Doesnt mean that something necessarily happened.  Maybe it was the plan all along to not play in college, but was using his committment as leverage.  That's what many players do.

And no reason to have such statistics.

This is exactly what I was thinking.  I know a kid who was on the draft board, committed to a  P5, changed his mind after the draft and went juco for a chance this year.

@RJM it's not about winning vs. losing; giving up vs. fighting. I'm going to get very personal to respond. PTWooddaughter2 could have could have gone to schools where she would have had a real chance to end her career as one of the college's best of all time (good mid-majors). She also could have gone somewhere where there was a chance to compete for a national championship every year but where her chances to play were slim (a perennial Top 10 program). She wanted to play against the highest level possible where she felt like she had a reasonable opportunity (not a guarantee) to fight for a position. She also wanted to get a stellar education. She's at Northwestern (bonus, she believed in what the coaches were building). She busted her a#$ and as a freshman ended up the season first off the bench. It didn't start that way and there were frustrating times that she powered through. Sophomore year, the starter in front of her had nagging injuries and PTWd2 earned the starting spot and never gave it up. She finished the year All Big 10 Honorable Mention, All Big 10 Academic, a Distinguished scholar and #3 in the Big10 for assist-turnover ratio. NU had a dream season finishing: a) Big10 regular season Co-Champs, b) ranked #11 in the country; and c). projected as 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA tourney before it got cancelled. Her not going to some other schools was not giving up at all. She weighed all her options and made the best decision for her. 

PTWooddaughter1 could have played D3 basketball. A torn ACL her junior year made her rethink everything. She came back to play and captain her HS team her sr. year but she determined she didn't want basketball to dictate the size and type of school she would go to. She ended up on academic scholarship at Notre Dame. Her sophomore year she decided to scratch the basketball itch by managing. Giving up? Or being mature and realistic about basketball's ability to OPEN or CLOSE doors in college for her?

Unlike the girls, education was not PTWoodson's top priority (it mattered more to us parents but ultimately he's the one going to college). He wanted to play at the highest level possible, where the coaches had an offensive philosophy similar to his, where the fans love baseball and where he would be best prepared to possibly enter the draft after his junior year. And yes, facilities mattered to him. That didn't mean that one of the first things he did when looking at a school or being recruited by a school was research the depth chart at his position (existing players and committed players). Not because he was giving up but because, all things equal, he wasn't going to go somewhere where he had to plow through 6 upperclassmen and 6 sophomores to get an inning. Then COVID happened (best laid plans of mice and men). His school currently has 49 kids on their roster. He still believes in his decision. Loves his coaches and the school. But he knows what he's up against. He hasn't take time off over Thanksgiving break. He's lifted every night and gone hitting every day.

Super long answer and sorry it's so detailed but I feel very strongly that the process is about really digging into what matters most to your child, doing your research, making a decision and owning it. Knowing that you may have to pivot because of circumstances beyond you control is a thing but not the main thing. Between my husband (mid-major who graduated top 10 rebounding and scoring) and my three kids, they run the gamut of student-athlete decisions. As a spectator for all of them, all of their decisions required a great deal of work and dedication. I don't know how things will turn out with PTWoodson but he is going in with eyes wide open about what it takes and what he's up against.

And... I officially need to get a life!!! LOL

@PTWood posted:

@RJM it's not about winning vs. losing; giving up vs. fighting. I'm going to get very personal to respond. PTWooddaughter2 could have could have gone to schools where she would have had a real chance to end her career as one of the college's best of all time (good mid-majors). She also could have gone somewhere where there was a chance to compete for a national championship every year but where her chances to play were slim (a perennial Top 10 program). She wanted to play against the highest level possible where she felt like she had a reasonable opportunity (not a guarantee) to fight for a position. She also wanted to get a stellar education. She's at Northwestern (bonus, she believed in what the coaches were building). She busted her a#$ and as a freshman ended up the season first off the bench. It didn't start that way and there were frustrating times that she powered through. Sophomore year, the starter in front of her had nagging injuries and PTWd2 earned the starting spot and never gave it up. She finished the year All Big 10 Honorable Mention, All Big 10 Academic, a Distinguished scholar and #3 in the Big10 for assist-turnover ratio. NU had a dream season finishing: a) Big10 regular season Co-Champs, b) ranked #11 in the country; and c). projected as 2 or 3 seed in the NCAA tourney before it got cancelled. Her not going to some other schools was not giving up at all. She weighed all her options and made the best decision for her.

PTWooddaughter1 could have played D3 basketball. A torn ACL her junior year made her rethink everything. She came back to play and captain her HS team her sr. year but she determined she didn't want basketball to dictate the size and type of school she would go to. She ended up on academic scholarship at Notre Dame. Her sophomore year she decided to scratch the basketball itch by managing. Giving up? Or being mature and realistic about basketball's ability to OPEN or CLOSE doors in college for her?

Unlike the girls, education was not PTWoodson's top priority (it mattered more to us parents but ultimately he's the one going to college). He wanted to play at the highest level possible, where the coaches had an offensive philosophy similar to his, where the fans love baseball and where he would be best prepared to possibly enter the draft after his junior year. And yes, facilities mattered to him. That didn't mean that one of the first things he did when looking at a school or being recruited by a school was research the depth chart at his position (existing players and committed players). Not because he was giving up but because, all things equal, he wasn't going to go somewhere where he had to plow through 6 upperclassmen and 6 sophomores to get an inning. Then COVID happened (best laid plans of mice and men). His school currently has 49 kids on their roster. He still believes in his decision. Loves his coaches and the school. But he knows what he's up against. He hasn't take time off over Thanksgiving break. He's lifted every night and gone hitting every day.

Super long answer and sorry it's so detailed but I feel very strongly that the process is about really digging into what matters most to your child, doing your research, making a decision and owning it. Knowing that you may have to pivot because of circumstances beyond you control is a thing but not the main thing. Between my husband (mid-major who graduated top 10 rebounding and scoring) and my three kids, they run the gamut of student-athlete decisions. As a spectator for all of them, all of their decisions required a great deal of work and dedication. I don't know how things will turn out with PTWoodson but he is going in with eyes wide open about what it takes and what he's up against.

And... I officially need to get a life!!! LOL

They’ve gone in believing they can do it. It’s why your daughter succeeded. I doubt she entered thinking, “If it doesn’t work out here, I can transfer.” Your son has a tougher challenge. But he’s a top prospect, not a marginal recruit. I’m sure he expects to succeed.

@RJM posted:

I’m guessing a lot of college players and son’s of posters on the board fit my son’s mold. He wasn’t recruited to be a freshman, starter stud. Someone else wasn’t getting the job done. Mid season he stepped in and got it done. Had other players met expectations my son’s college baseball experience might have been completely different.

My son was partially lucky (other’s failed providing opportunity) and completely mentally and physically ready when the opportunity arose.

This is how it happened for my kid.

My son's incoming class last year is now down over 50% and I don't blame over recruiting.  Guys are just not patient at P5's or maybe any level.  Most all of them left because they were not the man.  They were not willing to play limited time and wait their turn.  They expected to come onto campus and play a starting role immediately.  I think guys who have always been the best in their high school and travel teams think it will be that way in college but in college the time spent there in the weight room and in practice adds a lot to the role.

@PitchingFan posted:

My son's incoming class last year is now down over 50% and I don't blame over recruiting.  Guys are just not patient at P5's or maybe any level.  Most all of them left because they were not the man.  They were not willing to play limited time and wait their turn.  They expected to come onto campus and play a starting role immediately.  I think guys who have always been the best in their high school and travel teams think it will be that way in college but in college the time spent there in the weight room and in practice adds a lot to the role.

UT is down to 27 players?

No.  The 2019 incoming freshman class had 50% of them not return for this year.  They have way more than 27 like almost every P5.  They had guys not get drafted, seniors come back, guys transfer in, jucos and 2020 class.  Most of them went down a level or two.  They had the mindset like so many that they could step on an SEC team and start and that is rarely the case.  They were not willing to stay and let it play out or knew they would never be what they wanted to be so they moved on.  
my son could have done the same but his goal has always been to compete with and against the best so he is still there fighting for a spot.   I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer but what is best for the player and their family.  

I only saw 27 on the 2021 roster.  Misunderstood your post.

They only have listed the ones returning from last year.  They won’t put out full roster until right before season starts.  I’m interested to see how everyone lists their returners for 2021.  UT calls everyone by what they were last year so last year’s freshmen will be freshmen again for 2021.   Any clue what others are doing.  

@PitchingFan posted:

...  I’m interested to see how everyone lists their returners for 2021.  UT calls everyone by what they were last year so last year’s freshmen will be freshmen again for 2021.   Any clue what others are doing.  

My son's school is doing the same.  Everyone is listed same as last season, with the new freshmen added in.

It's going to be really hard to look at rosters and get a sense for the class breakdown without doing some historical analysis.

It would be easier if everyone standardized to listing HS Grad Class and eligibility remaining...

That is exactly what I was thinking the first time I saw it T_Thomas.  For the future classes trying to research how many a school brings in and keeps each year it will be totally confusing.  You will really have to do some research to know retention rate and recruiting numbers for a school.  I thought maybe they would put C-Freshman or something.  They even put it in write-ups about the players.  My son was listed in a write-up as an outstanding player for one scrimmage and it said freshman pitcher which is totally confusing.  And if they give them another year back as some are suggesting they could be third year freshmen.

We know a 20 year old "freshman." Got red shirted in 2019. Got the free year in 2020 due to COVID-19. He's now 20 with 4 years of eligibility.

@PitchingFan posted:

That is exactly what I was thinking the first time I saw it T_Thomas.  For the future classes trying to research how many a school brings in and keeps each year it will be totally confusing.  You will really have to do some research to know retention rate and recruiting numbers for a school.  I thought maybe they would put C-Freshman or something.  They even put it in write-ups about the players.  My son was listed in a write-up as an outstanding player for one scrimmage and it said freshman pitcher which is totally confusing.  And if they give them another year back as some are suggesting they could be third year freshmen.

It sounds like a lot of work, at this point, IMHO don't know what it might conclude?

Sneak peak at new feature, currently beta.

2020 Turnover (2020 vs 2019)

Outgoing Players that left program and potential reason for leaving

Outgoing Players by skillset

Incoming players

Incoming Players by Skillset

Historical trend

I will provide a real life example. My son was a 2018 HS grad and PBR ranked him #11 in our state at his position. Of the 10 players ranked ahead of him 2 of them went JuCo. The remaining 8 went to big name 4 year schools (with 1 exception). Two years have gone by and this is what has happened. The 2 that went JuCo were standouts and have advanced to great D1 programs. Of the 8 that went big time out of HS only 3 are still at their original schools - and only 2 have gotten in the field. The other 5 all bounced down to JuCos after 1 year at their dream school - including the top 3 who all had a PG ranking of 9.5 or 10. All 3 were elite prospects and they were not yet good enough to get on the field at Texas A&M, University of Houston, and Texas Tech as freshmen. I say all the time on this board that hardly any 18 year old kids are ready to play at top ranked programs as a freshman. This is true at D1 & D2. Every kid (and parent) thinks they are the one that can do it. After a year they find out they aren’t.

@adbono posted:

I will provide a real life example. My son was a 2018 HS grad and PBR ranked him #11 in our state at his position. Of the 10 players ranked ahead of him 2 of them went JuCo. The remaining 8 went to big name 4 year schools (with 1 exception). Two years have gone by and this is what has happened. The 2 that went JuCo were standouts and have advanced to great D1 programs. Of the 8 that went big time out of HS only 3 are still at their original schools - and only 2 have gotten in the field. The other 5 all bounced down to JuCos after 1 year at their dream school - including the top 3 who all had a PG ranking of 9.5 or 10. All 3 were elite prospects and they were not yet good enough to get on the field at Texas A&M, University of Houston, and Texas Tech as freshmen. I say all the time on this board that hardly any 18 year old kids are ready to play at top ranked programs as a freshman. This is true at D1 & D2. Every kid (and parent) thinks they are the one that can do it. After a year they find out they aren’t.

A coach once told me: You get 4 years to play. Do you want to go to a D2 or D3 where you have a chance to compete for playing time all four years? Or, would you rather go to a D1 school where you are going to sit the first year and then up transferring because you didn't play? Meanwhile, after you do transfer, you just spent thirty to sixty thousand dollars to attend some school that you are not going to graduate from anyway, in the process of wasting one of your 4 precious years.

Coach also said: Know your kid. If he's good enough to play in college then he's always been a starter and probably one of the best on his team. So, you're going to ask a kid who's never sat the bench in 10 years of baseball to now sit the bench and watch someone else play for 50 games? You think that's going to not bother them? They are going to hate it and look to transfer out as soon as possible.