BigJay posted:

video video video, and get a rock solid list of schools that are in the target range and start sophomore year.  Coaches can see things on video that might be worth discussion.  Throwing 90 is one thing, throwing 87 with great command, knowing how to pitch, will also be enough for many programs.  One of the most important factors is a GPA higher than 3.5, so the money doesn't hit the athletic budget. 

Bravo to Bigjay!!  Spot On!  And they will go lower than 87 for that freebie.  As for an earlier comment that to get on a roster you have to be recruited...  this is simply not true.  I suppose maybe its semantics and we have to define 'being recruited' but there are many kids who do a great job of getting themselves out there, get a luke warm response at best, then get that late call because they have a few spots to fill cause they didn't land choices 1 thru 10,000 (ok, slight hyperbole).  If you want to call that being recruited then fine I will grant you can not be on a roster unless recruited.  

Twoboys posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Eh, not so much anymore in our experience.

While most of the Ivy commitments this year can be seen on PG site (and there are some low SAT and ACT scores as low as 26),

 

 

 

A number of the Ivy Commits aren't on PG. They focus on either school specific camps or the high academic (Headfirst, Stanford, Showball, Top 96  high academic, showcase RedBird started) showcases where the Ivies/Patriot/Colonial cluster. So if you look at PG and see that three committed in a class, it's likely more and depending on year, possibly filled. Like anything else, some Ivies focus on certain recruiting sites (or even geographic areas and cities where they've had success) and others cast a much wider net. In all cases though, they recruit nationally.

One other thing that has to be taken into account is "when" they were offered. Some of those 85-88mph guys were offered and committed as sophomores when they were already throwing that # and haven't improved. A 2020 throwing 86 is in a different recruiting world than a 2017 throwing 87.

My kid is one of those "standby" guys. He has offers, but moist schools are waiting to see how things shake out. One of the worst things that has happened with him was throwing 87 last January. He came back in June at a showcase sick and topped out at 84, then threw 86 at the PG Jr. Nationals. After that, was up to 88 at three straight events. Without that 87 in January, it looks like a lot of improvement over the season. With the 87, he looks stagnant.

Another weird recruiting story involves the fact that sometimes there is confusion. My son was contacted by a Power 5 school that said they had seen him play and were very interested. They asked for transcripts and his schedule for the Arizona Fall Classic. They showed up at his first game and asked where he was. My son had sent them an email telling them he would be pitching our third game. As it turns out, they weren't interested in him as a pitcher. The were recruiting him as a first baseman. They saw his batting practice round at the PG Jr. Nationals where he actually killed the ball. I'm not even sure why he took BP since he was there as a PO. In fact, he's only had about 6 ab's all season. I haven't been selling him as a position player and he's only batted in a few pinch hitting spots. My thoughts were that no one is looking for a kid who runs an 8.11 60 even as an F3 and, while he can hit, I don't like him taking at bats away from kids who are trying to be recruited as position players. Bottom line is that you never know.

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

Yeah, but I do think it is reasonable to say there are 2,000+ HS P's that PROJECT to throw 88+.   

So, 2020, I'm still trying to nail down what's behind your ongoing agenda with this topic...

Let's say you have a HS junior or rising senior who throws 82-84, pitches effectively, has decent movement (related to spin rate ) and has had good success at the HS level.  His genetics, body type, maturity, mechanics, etc. don't point to much additional velo gain.  He is, like most, not fully educated on the realities of the college recruiting scene.  He just thinks he wants to play D1 ball.  Do you tell him to go for it and maybe try to walk on at a D1 or do you try to help him find a school/level where he has a much higher chance/likelihood to make the team and contribute at some point?

How many HS players do you think would actually want to go through the efforts it would take to make the roster of a D1 school and be satisfied with the likely scenario of then being cut in the fall or prior to sophomore year?  Do you think that "getting onto the roster" as the end goal is a strategy that puts the player in a position to succeed?

Twoboys posted:

Just wait is all I can say to those who have not gone through the process.  You can start early.  You can have great grades and great scores.  You can have excellent command and awesome secondary stuff.  STILL IT IS A TOUGH ROAD, especially for the Ivy pitching spots.  They do NOT take 7 pitchers a year, they only have 5-7 slots TOTAL.  All of the guys we know who are 84-88 and did not get D1 love have for the most part committed to a high academic D3 as few want the risk of trying to get in and then trying to make the team.

Also, not only the point above that PG does not capture all of the pitchers throwing hard, there is also no separation for RHP vs LHP and of course there is some velocity leeway given by some for a LHP.  

The pitchers I listed are all RHP, for the very simple reason that my son is a righty, so the velocity necessary for a LHP was irrelevant to me. But I assume that LHP could be a bit lower.

To your point about PG, of course they don't capture everyone. I found that mid-majors on the West Coast (for example, Cal-Poly) and most D3s had far fewer kids who had thrown at a PG event during their rising senior summer or senior fall. Other schools (for example, Virginia) had virtually every single kid in the PG database, including having thrown at a PG event their rising senior summer or senior fall.  

The information I provided is just information that is publicly available, which I gathered and collated. The aim in doing so was simply to help in identifying which schools might be realistic targets for my son to pursue -- like, if he's topping out at 87 as a rising senior, Virginia is completely, totally unrealistic. Once I had the data put together, I thought others might find it useful. 

Great info 2019dad.  Excellent work on this subject. 

KilroyJ posted:

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

One simple measure I've found in regards specifically with RHPs and high academic schools is what I now call RPI, "Righty Pitcher Index."  Focused solely at RHPs looking to go high academic, the golden number for getting on those radars (I believe) is 120.

Formula:  FB velo + ACT score = 120

Examples: FB: 90mph +  ACT: 30 = 120

or FB: 88mph  +  ACT: 32 = 120

or FB: 86mph  + ACT: 34 = 120

or FB: 93mph  +  ACT:27 = 120

or FB: 94mph  +  ACT 26 = 120

Not sure what the parameters of this are though?  

Not sure a kid with FB: 102mph with an ACT: 18 is playing college ball???  But I'll bet a kid with FB: 84 and ACT: 36 is! 

Not scientific, but just my armchair observations

I think overall the premise that you must throw X to be recruited is somewhat true, but I never like to paint everything with the same brush. I am a case by case guy, and there are just far too many variables.  What is the connection the kid has with the program?  (Coach, family, etc.) What is the families economic condition?  (At the really expensive schools this can play a large part.  Ryan was offered $52,000 out of $57,000 at a very expensive out of state school.  All of that was based on our economics.)   Where are you from?  Are you in state or out of state?  What is your projectability?  Are you an RHP or LHP?

There are just too many variables to cross teams off your list, or to say that x school won't recruit you unless you are throwing x hard.  It's just not the case.

cabbagedad posted:

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

Yeah, but I do think it is reasonable to say there are 2,000+ HS P's that PROJECT to throw 88+.   

So, 2020, I'm still trying to nail down what's behind your ongoing agenda with this topic...

Let's say you have a HS junior or rising senior who throws 82-84, pitches effectively, has decent movement (related to spin rate ) and has had good success at the HS level.  His genetics, body type, maturity, mechanics, etc. don't point to much additional velo gain.  He is, like most, not fully educated on the realities of the college recruiting scene.  He just thinks he wants to play D1 ball.  Do you tell him to go for it and maybe try to walk on at a D1 or do you try to help him find a school/level where he has a much higher chance/likelihood to make the team and contribute at some point?

How many HS players do you think would actually want to go through the efforts it would take to make the roster of a D1 school and be satisfied with the likely scenario of then being cut in the fall or prior to sophomore year?  Do you think that "getting onto the roster" as the end goal is a strategy that puts the player in a position to succeed?

Great questions Cabbage!  First what is my agenda?  Just the truth thats all, nothing hidden.  And yes it is ongoing because there is ongoing misinformation.  As for the pitcher you describe...  yes its tough sledding for him, he will have to distinguish himself somehow.  I would NEVER advise someone to walk on anywhere at any level unless it was the absolute last option.  As for getting cut, its a risk an athlete needs to be willing to take.  Bet on yourself!  Is getting on a roster the end goal?  For some yes, for others no.  Believe it or not there are those who are just happy being part of a team.  Knew a guy who was a D1 bullpen catcher essentially.  Got all the team gear and had a blast.  It was the school he wanted to go to and he was not really D1 talent so this was great for him.  Could have gone to a smaller school for baseball but this was the school he wanted his degree from!

It is extremely misleading that Ivy League schools don't attend and follow and recruit at PG events. They even attend our top events. Truth is we see all of them during the year,several of them attend multiple events.  I think they all suscribe to our scouting service.  I would argue, and it has been this way for many years, there are a lot more PG players at Ivy League colleges than anyone else, maybe more than all others combined.

It is not as high a percentage of players as the power conferences, but to say they don't follow PG closely would be false.   Must remember the academic requirements include a very small percentage of players, but they still want the most talented kids they can find.

Hard for me to figure out where this thread is going and why.

2019DAD  did considerable research and provided hard data broken down by D1, D2 and D3.  He clearly stated this was velocity only (and there are other factors).  The original post provides relevant information for those with HS RHP in terms of "velocity" in HS and where those pitchers end up in college. 

So long as anyone reading this thread does  not assume that the velocity number alone was the only factor in getting recruited and ending up at the school listed, the information should be very helpful...as one starting point for determining what type of options a player may have for college.

So long as the reader does not assume that the HS velocity numbers equate to success or time on the mound in college, the information is very helpful.

So long as the reader knows there are many other factors which go into the process (including many college coaches who will only recruit pitchers they have seen) this information can be very helpful.

It appears some folks want to turn this thread into a discussion of the "other factors."  "I knew a guy too" but I don't see how talking about the exception (rare on in my view) helps this thread and the valuable data point it could provide for others, when placed in the perspective it was offered by 2019DAD.

As others have done, I would think 2019Dad deserves a round of

Agreed

Yes, that was some excellent research.

People can go here to checkout more PG numbers. You can Click the college box, pop up will enable you to scroll to any college and see recruits with PG ties. You can then click on the players name and see his profile.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Col...legeCommitments.aspx

2020dad posted:

cabbagedad posted:

2020dad posted:

What velocity is necessary to get onto a college roster at certain schools?

This is the title of this thread.  No where here does it mentioned being recruited let alone heavily recruited.  Get onto a college roster...  That's what we are talking about here.  And as for the being loved thing...  We can't all be loved at all levels.  If everyone followed this advice no team would ever fill out their roster.    Some kids simply have to go somewhere they are not loved and compete if that is what they want!  How many freshman pitchers do you think there are on a D1 staff on average?  7 or 8?  Probably a good guess.  Most teams about 15 pitchers some more.  usually almost half are freshmen as older kids get drafted, quit or transfer.  So lets say 7.5x300=2250.  Take out the kids who go in the draft after high school and those who for reasons of their own want to go to a lower level school or a Juco for grades or whatever.  Still think there are 2250 kids left who throw 90+??  Or even 88+?

Yeah, but I do think it is reasonable to say there are 2,000+ HS P's that PROJECT to throw 88+.   

So, 2020, I'm still trying to nail down what's behind your ongoing agenda with this topic...

Let's say you have a HS junior or rising senior who throws 82-84, pitches effectively, has decent movement (related to spin rate ) and has had good success at the HS level.  His genetics, body type, maturity, mechanics, etc. don't point to much additional velo gain.  He is, like most, not fully educated on the realities of the college recruiting scene.  He just thinks he wants to play D1 ball.  Do you tell him to go for it and maybe try to walk on at a D1 or do you try to help him find a school/level where he has a much higher chance/likelihood to make the team and contribute at some point?

How many HS players do you think would actually want to go through the efforts it would take to make the roster of a D1 school and be satisfied with the likely scenario of then being cut in the fall or prior to sophomore year?  Do you think that "getting onto the roster" as the end goal is a strategy that puts the player in a position to succeed?

Great questions Cabbage!  First what is my agenda?  Just the truth thats all, nothing hidden.  And yes it is ongoing because there is ongoing misinformation.  As for the pitcher you describe...  yes its tough sledding for him, he will have to distinguish himself somehow.  I would NEVER advise someone to walk on anywhere at any level unless it was the absolute last option.  As for getting cut, its a risk an athlete needs to be willing to take.  Bet on yourself!  Is getting on a roster the end goal?  For some yes, for others no.  Believe it or not there are those who are just happy being part of a team.  Knew a guy who was a D1 bullpen catcher essentially.  Got all the team gear and had a blast.  It was the school he wanted to go to and he was not really D1 talent so this was great for him.  Could have gone to a smaller school for baseball but this was the school he wanted his degree from!

Thanks 2020.  I'm still hung up on some of this.  Was the D1 bullpen C recent or back in the day?  I agree that, for some, the idea of being part of the D1 team is a cool thought.   But, with today's realities for those kids - limited roster spots, even more limited travel spots, enormity of time and work commitment, removal of ability to work a job to offset college expenses, increased pressure on coaches to win and, thus, constantly try to upgrade every roster spot, etc., this cool thought just doesn't pass the logic/common sense test when push comes to shove.

I would think that for every one kid who may consider such a sacrifice with no realistic chance of PT, there is an astronomical number of kids who either get cut and hang 'em up, choose a more reachable level or decide the math doesn't add up and just become regular students.  And, as others have pointed out, that pool of players that fits the mold I described is so large, it is nearly impossible to "distinguish himself somehow" as you stated.  So, the only shot at D1 is to try and walk on.  

I still think it is much more sound advice to steer the kid in my original scenario toward a program where he has a reasonable chance to make the squad and contribute on the field.  And, I still think it is more sound advice to tell the players and parents that come here to the site to find a match where there is mutual interest, a reasonable playing match and that likelihood of a chance to compete.

(That said, here's an ironic twist that somewhat supports your point - I do have a catcher that came out of our program, torn labrum ended his college playing dream, somehow connected with his D1 college as a "team manager", eventually began catching some bullpens, does get some of the swag, doesn't travel so not quite the time commitment and he loves being part of it.  Still, that was just freshman year and not quite the full sacrifice a rostered player would be expected to give.  And, he doesn't have the likelihood of being cut hanging over his head.  It will be interesting to see how long he sticks with it.)

 PS - Sorry, after posting this lengthy piece, I saw Infielddad's post and he is right.  We probably shouldn't be drifting too much and distracting from the great info that 2019 provided.  I'll try to stay more directly on topic.

Thanks again, 2019 

PGStaff posted:

It is extremely misleading that Ivy League schools don't attend and follow and recruit at PG events. They even attend our top events. Truth is we see all of them during the year,several of them attend multiple events.  I think they all suscribe to our scouting service.  I would argue, and it has been this way for many years, there are a lot more PG players at Ivy League colleges than anyone else, maybe more than all others combined.

It is not as high a percentage of players as the power conferences, but to say they don't follow PG closely would be false.   Must remember the academic requirements include a very small percentage of players, but they still want the most talented kids they can find.

my 2 cents since i saw it happen a couple weeks ago in ft Myers underclass WWBA, a ivy league school was at our game from beginning to about the 6th inn, most of  the staff and coaches knew him and he was talking to our coaches before the game, asking about GPAs and such , he was standing on the opps team side that we were playing, i didn't know it at the time but he was scouting/watching  my son, i guess he got his attention,now when my son hit a 2run  bomb to deep center  , he really was interested to where he went up to the PG score keeper to find out my sons info and it just  happen to be  some parents from our team sitting there and he starting going back and fourth asking my kids GPA and how he liked my son catching /hitting , since my sons GPA  was good he liked it even more, when this Coach was leaving he passed by me and gave a compliment about my kid that was huge. now we were not  thinking about IVY's  B4 this , but now we are LOL. 

Yes cabbage back in the day.  And yes things are much different now.  And as usual when we disagree I think we come to some common ground eventually.  I agree with you that most kids just give up the fight.  Which lessens the competition severely.  I can not agree however that you can not distinguish yourself.  GPA is a great start.  Attitude is also in there.  But like you I too am happy to bow out of this and return to our regularly scheduled programming!  One thing I like about you cabbage is you always ask clarifying questions instead of just going attack mode.  It is appreciated.  We have disagreed a few times but I never walk away from it feeling angry.  

2020dad posted:

Yes cabbage back in the day.  And yes things are much different now.  And as usual when we disagree I think we come to some common ground eventually.  I agree with you that most kids just give up the fight.  Which lessens the competition severely.  I can not agree however that you can not distinguish yourself.  GPA is a great start.  Attitude is also in there.  But like you I too am happy to bow out of this and return to our regularly scheduled programming!  One thing I like about you cabbage is you always ask clarifying questions instead of just going attack mode.  It is appreciated.  We have disagreed a few times but I never walk away from it feeling angry.  

#1 Assistant Coach posted:

KilroyJ posted:

Thank you for this. As the parent of a 2019 RHP, this is very interesting information to me as he starts his recruiting journey. One thing I'd love to know is- (and I'm not sure there would be any data to show this)  is there really some type of inverse relationship between velo and ACT/GPA for admittance at a given school, and what that spread might be for a more selective school.

One simple measure I've found in regards specifically with RHPs and high academic schools is what I now call RPI, "Righty Pitcher Index."  Focused solely at RHPs looking to go high academic, the golden number for getting on those radars (I believe) is 120.

RPI Formula:  FB velo + ACT score = 120 (or as close to it as possible)

Examples: FB: 90mph +  ACT: 30 = 120

or FB: 88mph  +  ACT: 32 = 120

or FB: 86mph  + ACT: 34 = 120

or FB: 93mph  +  ACT:27 = 120

or FB: 94mph  +  ACT 26 = 120

Not sure what the parameters of this are though?  

Not sure a kid with FB: 102mph with an ACT: 18 is playing college ball???  But I'll bet a kid with FB: 84 and ACT: 36 is! 

Not scientific, but just my armchair observations

Just did a spot check on my "RPI-120 Theory" on a couple of the high academic schools and RHPs that 2019 Dad highlighted in OP.  Both fell short of the #120 with the velo/ACT#s they each had posted on PG.  One kid was (FB+ACT=117, the other was FB+ACT=115).  Those could have been older velo #s and maybe they hit higher velos at the college's camp or at another showcase or tournament?  Who knows?  But in both cases, aim high for (120) and hit 117 or even 115, and both kids landed on high academic D-1 rosters as RHPs. 

I will add, as another thread recently sought to distinguish between High Academic Power-5s and Ivys, this Golden #120 goes out the window with Power-5 Academics I believe.  The #120 is for schools where the coaching staff truly kow-tows to the admissions office and not the other way around.  I do believe at some High Academic Power-5s the HCs tend to get who they want due to a more flexible admissions process.

I realize OP was talking JUST VELO but #s can be misleading if taken out of context.  So many variables in play.  But for me, the two most core, base, fundamental, and two I felt son had most control over?  ACT and Velo.  Now, as far as throwing strikes?????????  I have no formula for that!!

JMO.

2019Dad posted:

I thought other posters or just folks browsing might be interested in this information.

The idea was to see what is really required, velocity-wise, by HS senior fall, using real data that is publicly available with respect to actual players. (Of course, there are other factors to pitching than simply velocity, but velo is an important component).

Below is a list of the max velocity recorded by PG for all RHP on certain current college rosters (available online) who also (1) are in the PG database and (2) had a velocity recorded during the summer before senior year, or in Sept - Jan of senior year.

In a few cases, the highest velocity was actually earlier in their high school years, but if there was a velo in the PG database from May of HS junior year to January of HS senior year, I included the kid and used the highest velocity. Also, in a couple cases, the kid pitched a PG event after graduating high school, and reached a higher velocity, but I did not include that higher velocity, on the theory that 99% of the kids are recruited before they graduate from high school.

If the kid's only PG velo was from earlier (for example, summer after HS freshman year), I did not include him because I didn't want to skew the numbers lower. Same thing with kids who are on a current roster but are noted as a transfer from another college. For two-way players, I included them if RHP was listed first, under the theory that their pitching played a significant role in their recruitment.

Of course, there are also RHP on every roster who aren't in the PG database, or who had no velocity readings from the summer before senior year, or senior fall -- and for some rosters, it was the majority of pitchers. Since I had no easy way of getting data on those kids, I did not include them.

Anyway, here is the information:

POWER 5

• Duke (ACC): 87 (Glavin); 89 (Davis); 90 (Kovachik); 92 (Blum); 93 (Williams); 94 (Pesto)
• Notre Dame (ACC): 87 (Vorsheck); 88 (Smoyer); 88 (Hearne); 89 (Connolly); 89 (Combs); 89 (McCarty); 90 (Solomon); 90 (Hock); 91 (Bielak); 91 (Ruibal); 92 (Bass)
• Virginia (ACC): 85 (Shambora); 89 (Harrington); 90 (Bettinger); 90 (Page); 91 (Doyle); 92 (Roberts); 92 (Murdock); 94 (Sperling); 94 (Casey)
• Wake Forest (ACC): 76 (Casstevens); 81 (Awad); 86 (Dunshee); 87 (Loepprich); 88 (Supple); 88 (McCarren); 89 (Dee); 90 (Johnson); 90 (Farish); 90 (Johnstone); 91 (McSweeney)
• Northwestern (B1G): 84 (Vukovich); 86 (Christie); 87 (Davis); 88 (Levy); 88 (Schindler); 88 (Cauley); 89 (Rosman); 89 (Lass)
• Michigan (B1G): 85 (Lozer); 86 (Wysocki); 88 (Karcher); 90 (Vancena); 90 (Lehmann); 90 (Nutof); 91 (Miller); 91 (Pall)
• USC (Pac-12): 86 (Vaccaro); 87 (Perryman); 88 (Lunn); 90 (Bates); 92 (Hart); 92 (Wegman); 93 (Dyrda); 94 (Crouse);
• Cal (Pac-12): 86 (Bain); 88 (Flemer); 89 (Martinez); 89 (Buckley); 90 (Schick); 90 (Jeffries); 92 (Dodson)

 

MID-MAJOR

• Cal-Poly (Big West): 87 (Lee); 88 (Colen); 91 (Uelmen)
• UCSB (Big West): 84 (Bieber); 86 (Chandler); 87 (Davis); 88 (Chapman); 89 (Keever)
• St. Mary's (WCC): 84 (Braman); 86 (Strotman); 87 (Holdgrafer); 88 (Buckley)
• Bucknell (Patriot): 81 (Stephens); 84 (Strahm); 85 (Gottesman); 85 (Gambon); 89 (Robichaux); 89 (Tailor)
• Army (Patriot): 84 (French); 88 (Messina); 87 (Ball); 88 (Carte); 89 (Verrill)
• Columbia (Ivy): 86 (O'Brien); 86 (Barr); 87 (West); 88 (Gannaway)
• Dartmouth (Ivy): 85 (Fossand); 85 (Michel); 87 (Fagler); 87 (Bygum); 87 (Danielak); 88 (Bubala); 90 (Fichthorn); 90 (Johnson)
• Davidson (A-10): 85 (Barry); 85 (White); 86 (Leonard); 86 (Hopkins); 87 (Gordon); 87 (Spear); 88 (Plebani); 88 (Sutherland); 89 (Hudson)
• William and Mary (CAA): 84 (Toner); 84 (Fletcher); 85 (Powers); 85 (Yoest); 86 (Butts); 87 (Brown); 88 (Waldman); 88 (Bailey); 88 (Lohr); 89 (White)
• Rice (CUSA): 88 (Otto); 88 (Parthasarathy); 89 (Orewiler); 89 (Schwarz); 90 (Moss); 90 (Gayle); 90 (Silber); 92 (Canterino); 93 (Salinas)

 

DIVISION 2

• UCSD (CCAA): 85 (Lucke); 85 (Mora); 88 (DiPoto); 88 (Nelson); 89 (Jarvis)

 

DIVISION 3

• Amherst (NESCAC): 84 (Z. Brown); 84 (Baldi); 84 (Vasiliu); 86 (Volle); 86 (Dow); 86 (D. Brown)
• Bowdoin (NESCAC): 81 (Osterholtz); 83 (Lopez); 85 (Arms); 85 (Wilhoite)
• Williams (NESCAC): 82 (O'Brien); 87 (Capute)
• Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC): 82 (Kannappan); 86 (Gerics)
• Trinity (SCAC): 81 (Coffman); 83 (Nix); 83 (Wimberley); 84 (Cubley); 84 (Turner); 85 (McGee); 85 (Pontikes); 86 (Nelson); 86 (Williams)

Pardon my ignorance but are you talking about only RHPs or also position players?  Eg. Catcher SS, OF?   Some of the posts talk about bat speed too.   

Goblue33 posted:

Pardon my ignorance but are you talking about only RHPs or also position players?  Eg. Catcher SS, OF?   Some of the posts talk about bat speed too.   

RHPs only.

One young man that 2019 Dad lists in OP on one of the Power-5 Academic rosters as an RHP I know well.  He nailed the RPI "Golden #120" with a PG-FB: 90, and a PG-ACT: 30. 

The 90/30 combo is a hard to beat one-two punch for the RHP looking to be the "buyer" at just about any school he wants.  This young man turned down Ivy offers to take his 90/30 to a Power-5 Academic.  Obviously, after the 90/30 is documented, other factors must be in alignment: GPA, throwing strikes, off speed, etc, etc. 

All very unscientific observations about RHPs, velo, and college recruiting. 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Pla...ofile.aspx?ID=181546

Not a very impressive profile.  Doesn't even list the speed of his fastball.   Must be nice to be a crafty lefty.   

I know this is only anecdotal and I cringe to put this out there as it is my son but he is living this exact scenario right now as a freshman at what in recent years been a top 40 program but not in a power 5 conference. 

18 pitchers in fall camp. I think of those 14 are RHP.  Throw out the submarine guy so down to 13.  Of those I think at least 6-7 cruise comfortably above 90. 

I've said it before son is an outlier. Topped at 85 coming out of HS.  Now more like sitting 85-87. 

First team all state by the TX HS coaches last year, but guess what happened in first fall outing that was only fastball and changeups. He got smoked. 85 mph bp basically.   College hitters don't miss many 90 mph fastballs when they know they are coming.  85 they miss rarely if ever  

Until he could start pitching backwards with a high spin rate slider he was pretty helpless at that velo against college quality  hitters. Now he has a chance to win with fastball when they sit on slider.  He has done well this fall  but nothing is guaranteed.

Cabbage said it well earlier. It is extremely hard to make that jump. It's a battle and a grind.  Kids have their own criteria when looking at schools. My son wanted to win and play in the post season. He ended up at his dream school.  He has confidence he will earn his innings like he always has. 

I understand when folks say 90+ etc I really do but I also think it is easy as a player and a parent to let others define what you should chase after.  I say chase that dream school until they say no but also be wise enough to have a plan B.  Know when to pull the plug on dream chasing and move to plan B. I still see lots of players get stuck and it's fall of senior year of HS and now what.  Son had several backup juco offers just in case.

This is a very worthy discussion IMO.  Just like anything I think knowledge is power in this recruiting game.  I don't think my son would be at a top program as an outlier if not for everything I started to learn here when he was in 8th grade.  

that Indians pitcher tonight threw pretty soft, mostly 87-88 very rarely touching 90 with his FB. He is a lefty but I'm surprised he made it to the Majors especially with a pretty conventional delivery (no submarine or sidearm).

you do see some older guys in the upper 80s in the Majors but to see a 24 yo conventional delivery pitcher making it is pretty rare.

of course for college Standards cruising 86-88 and touching 90 as a lefty is not slow but for mlb in These days it definitely is.

2019Dad posted:

I thought other posters or just folks browsing might be interested in this information.

The idea was to see what is really required, velocity-wise, by HS senior fall, using real data that is publicly available with respect to actual players. (Of course, there are other factors to pitching than simply velocity, but velo is an important component).

Below is a list of the max velocity recorded by PG for all RHP on certain current college rosters (available online) who also (1) are in the PG database and (2) had a velocity recorded during the summer before senior year, or in Sept - Jan of senior year.

In a few cases, the highest velocity was actually earlier in their high school years, but if there was a velo in the PG database from May of HS junior year to January of HS senior year, I included the kid and used the highest velocity. Also, in a couple cases, the kid pitched a PG event after graduating high school, and reached a higher velocity, but I did not include that higher velocity, on the theory that 99% of the kids are recruited before they graduate from high school.

If the kid's only PG velo was from earlier (for example, summer after HS freshman year), I did not include him because I didn't want to skew the numbers lower. Same thing with kids who are on a current roster but are noted as a transfer from another college. For two-way players, I included them if RHP was listed first, under the theory that their pitching played a significant role in their recruitment.

Of course, there are also RHP on every roster who aren't in the PG database, or who had no velocity readings from the summer before senior year, or senior fall -- and for some rosters, it was the majority of pitchers. Since I had no easy way of getting data on those kids, I did not include them.

Anyway, here is the information:

POWER 5

• Duke (ACC): 87 (Glavin); 89 (Davis); 90 (Kovachik); 92 (Blum); 93 (Williams); 94 (Pesto)
• Notre Dame (ACC): 87 (Vorsheck); 88 (Smoyer); 88 (Hearne); 89 (Connolly); 89 (Combs); 89 (McCarty); 90 (Solomon); 90 (Hock); 91 (Bielak); 91 (Ruibal); 92 (Bass)
• Virginia (ACC): 85 (Shambora); 89 (Harrington); 90 (Bettinger); 90 (Page); 91 (Doyle); 92 (Roberts); 92 (Murdock); 94 (Sperling); 94 (Casey)
• Wake Forest (ACC): 76 (Casstevens); 81 (Awad); 86 (Dunshee); 87 (Loepprich); 88 (Supple); 88 (McCarren); 89 (Dee); 90 (Johnson); 90 (Farish); 90 (Johnstone); 91 (McSweeney)
• Northwestern (B1G): 84 (Vukovich); 86 (Christie); 87 (Davis); 88 (Levy); 88 (Schindler); 88 (Cauley); 89 (Rosman); 89 (Lass)
• Michigan (B1G): 85 (Lozer); 86 (Wysocki); 88 (Karcher); 90 (Vancena); 90 (Lehmann); 90 (Nutof); 91 (Miller); 91 (Pall)
• USC (Pac-12): 86 (Vaccaro); 87 (Perryman); 88 (Lunn); 90 (Bates); 92 (Hart); 92 (Wegman); 93 (Dyrda); 94 (Crouse);
• Cal (Pac-12): 86 (Bain); 88 (Flemer); 89 (Martinez); 89 (Buckley); 90 (Schick); 90 (Jeffries); 92 (Dodson)

 

MID-MAJOR

• Cal-Poly (Big West): 87 (Lee); 88 (Colen); 91 (Uelmen)
• UCSB (Big West): 84 (Bieber); 86 (Chandler); 87 (Davis); 88 (Chapman); 89 (Keever)
• St. Mary's (WCC): 84 (Braman); 86 (Strotman); 87 (Holdgrafer); 88 (Buckley)
• Bucknell (Patriot): 81 (Stephens); 84 (Strahm); 85 (Gottesman); 85 (Gambon); 89 (Robichaux); 89 (Tailor)
• Army (Patriot): 84 (French); 88 (Messina); 87 (Ball); 88 (Carte); 89 (Verrill)
• Columbia (Ivy): 86 (O'Brien); 86 (Barr); 87 (West); 88 (Gannaway)
• Dartmouth (Ivy): 85 (Fossand); 85 (Michel); 87 (Fagler); 87 (Bygum); 87 (Danielak); 88 (Bubala); 90 (Fichthorn); 90 (Johnson)
• Davidson (A-10): 85 (Barry); 85 (White); 86 (Leonard); 86 (Hopkins); 87 (Gordon); 87 (Spear); 88 (Plebani); 88 (Sutherland); 89 (Hudson)
• William and Mary (CAA): 84 (Toner); 84 (Fletcher); 85 (Powers); 85 (Yoest); 86 (Butts); 87 (Brown); 88 (Waldman); 88 (Bailey); 88 (Lohr); 89 (White)
• Rice (CUSA): 88 (Otto); 88 (Parthasarathy); 89 (Orewiler); 89 (Schwarz); 90 (Moss); 90 (Gayle); 90 (Silber); 92 (Canterino); 93 (Salinas)

 

DIVISION 2

• UCSD (CCAA): 85 (Lucke); 85 (Mora); 88 (DiPoto); 88 (Nelson); 89 (Jarvis)

 

DIVISION 3

• Amherst (NESCAC): 84 (Z. Brown); 84 (Baldi); 84 (Vasiliu); 86 (Volle); 86 (Dow); 86 (D. Brown)
• Bowdoin (NESCAC): 81 (Osterholtz); 83 (Lopez); 85 (Arms); 85 (Wilhoite)
• Williams (NESCAC): 82 (O'Brien); 87 (Capute)
• Pomona-Pitzer (SCIAC): 82 (Kannappan); 86 (Gerics)
• Trinity (SCAC): 81 (Coffman); 83 (Nix); 83 (Wimberley); 84 (Cubley); 84 (Turner); 85 (McGee); 85 (Pontikes); 86 (Nelson); 86 (Williams)

awesome work! and thanks for stating the thread...good stuff.  Found the below attachment on the internet the other day that seems somewhat relevant to the topic...

Great stuff, I like to see hard data that confirms what my eyes tell me. Went to the B12 tourney a few years ago in brick town and saw Baylor vs West Virginia, Baylor rhp 84-86  // WVa lefty 79, never touched 80. This was on the stadium gun.

2019Dad,

Love the research you have done and very interesting stuff.  Did you happen to look at any LHP velos in your research?  I would guess they might be 2-3 MPH lower, but at power 5 it may be the same.  Just curious and thanks again!

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

mdschert posted:

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

Proof that throwing hard makes you taller.

Go44dad posted:

mdschert posted:

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

Proof that throwing hard makes you taller.

I knew there was some sort of relationship between the two!!

phillyinNJ posted:

awesome work! and thanks for stating the thread...good stuff.  Found the below attachment on the internet the other day that seems somewhat relevant to the topic...

I saw that graph on @TreadAthletics. I never want to discourage people from crunching the numbers, but I think they made some assumptions that hurt the accuracy of the numbers.

First, the title of "Chance of Pitching in College" is misleading. I'm pretty sure they did not confirm that those 7,000 players in the sample have actually pitched in college. Lots of college position players have a FB number on their PG profile. MSU outfielder Jake Mangum (SEC Freshman of the Year) has an 85 FB on his profile.

Second, there are lots of kids pitching in college who don't have a school commitment listed on PG. Anecdotally, it seem like the likelihood goes down from D1 to D3 to D2 to juco to NAIA. So if they want to look at "Chance of Pitching in College", the lower velocities are most likely under-represented in this group.

If the hypothesis is that higher velocities directly relate to chance of pitching in college, very few would disagree. But if you're trying to put real percentages to that relationship, I don't think you can use this data for that purpose. I think 2019Dad's analysis gives a much more accurate assessment of the relationship between velo and pitching in college.

2020dad posted:

Go44dad posted:

mdschert posted:

This thread led me to check on my local in state D1 on PG website.  The 2018 class already has 4 RHP commits and all are 6'5" and over and all throwing over 90 mph.  Must be in the water....

Proof that throwing hard makes you taller.

I knew there was some sort of relationship between the two!!

Better living through logic. You can also go to any elementary school in the country and show the link between bigger feet and math ability.

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Looked up an Ivy team and their current top pitcher this past season threw 86 mph fall of HS senior year with 27 ACT.

Curious how you determined who their top pitcher is?

I also wanted to add from memory of last years college World Series, I don't remember see any 90+ guys until the super regional games. That is the final 16. I'm not saying that teams didn't have them, but outside the top 16 teams they were few and far between.

Keep in mind that by the CWS the top pitchers are running on fumes. Long season combined with a narrowing bucket of pitchers used as the golden ring gets closer means way too many innings for these guys.  

That's  why - for guys who get drafted that year - their pro innings are really restricted over the next three months; for the top pitchers not drafted, many will either sit out the summer or log very few innings.

FriarFred posted:

2019Dad,

Love the research you have done and very interesting stuff.  Did you happen to look at any LHP velos in your research?  I would guess they might be 2-3 MPH lower, but at power 5 it may be the same.  Just curious and thanks again!

I didn't, FriarFred. Only because my son is a righty, so that was what was relevant to me. I'd also guess they'd be a couple mph slower, but I don't have any data on that.

Also, FWIW, I noticed that there were no 95 or above RHPs, and it struck me that (in addition to there not being very many such HS pitchers) they are all likely very high draft picks.

mdschert posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Looked up an Ivy team and their current top pitcher this past season threw 86 mph fall of HS senior year with 27 ACT.

Could be that he improved both by 3 or 4 before his high school career was over.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

mdschert posted:

Goosegg posted:

Nice compilation.

I'd say any pitcher touching 88 with an ACT of 30 should call an Ivy coach.

Looked up an Ivy team and their current top pitcher this past season threw 86 mph fall of HS senior year with 27 ACT.

Could be that he improved both by 3 or 4 before his high school career was over.

Although, it's quite likely given admissions requirements for IL schools that he at least was committed to the school at the very least while he was throwing 86.

And the IVY coach would politely say call them when they get a 32 on the ACT . A 30 won't cut it today for a RHP at a top IVY