2020 High School Baseball Season

TheMaskedPlayer posted:

FoxDad posted:

Decision on high school sports still pending in Virginia (VHSL).   VHSL states they do not have the authority to cancel the regular season games, scrimmages and practices, only the state tournament.  It's up to the local school boards on whether to cancel the sport(s).  At this time our local school board is monitoring the situation.   Schools are still open and I assume practices for spring sports are ongoing.   Nothing in the local paper or on the school website.

I think this statement strikes more fear in me than shortages of toilet paper, water, cleaning supplies, dry food, etc.  Parents should be voicing their concerns to the board if necessary to wake them up.  People, this is a highly contagious virus, with an incubation period of several days to weeks.  You have no idea you are a carrier/infected until you show symptoms, and who knows how many you may have infected by then.  Majority will get better with little complications, but some elderly/sick may perish.  Remember since it's a virus you have it forever, much like other viruses such as chicken pox, Herpes, and HIV.  I love baseball, my son is one of those effected by the cancellations.  As difficult and inconvenient as it may seem, measures must be taken now to prevent a potential uncontrollable spread.

Just to dispel any myths that might be going around, the influenza illness is NOT a permanent/lifelong disease such as VAR, HSV, or HIV.

This is how misinformation leads to panic. 

So to answer a few questions some may be wondering/worrying about:

Is there  a cure for the flu - NO, there are antivirals that may lessen the degree of symptoms

Will I carry the flu for the rest of my life - NO, after the flu runs its course you will no longer be infected with the disease. 

Does influenza lie dormant such as VAR, HSV, or HIV - NO, and once influenza has run its course you will not continually test positive for it.

Does your immune system cause this to happen - YES, If contracted your immune system will produce antibodies that will make you somewhat resistant to the exact virus if you come in contact with it at a future time.

Then why do people continue to catch influenza - Almost all Influenza strains are highly contagious and evolve not only yearly, but also sometimes seasonally. This is why vaccines don't always work. Most common vaccines use the principal of building up antibodies as they incorporate the inactive (dead) version of the virus.

Just received notice the county schools (King George) will be closed Monday and Tuesday.   Also read that Arlington, Fall Church, and Alexandria schools (All in Virginia) will be closed starting Monday and remain closed until 4/14.

Letter posted on the school system website:

https://www.kgcs.k12.va.us/Use...KGCS%203-13-2020.pdf

Once MD shut down schools, it's safe to say the entire Mid-Atlantic will follow suit

(couple week hiatus is what I'm expecting with re-evaluate after spring break)

JSKelley posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

If anyone here has a HS sports season outright cancelled, please post to let everyone know.   Momentum seems to be building for colleges (D3s anyhow) to take this step.  I'm about 70% expecting my son's senior HS baseball season to be shut down in the next few weeks.  (Not recommending that; it's just starting to seem likely.)

People have lost their minds.  Way overreacting.  This will all be gone in a month in warm weather states and probably two months for cold weather states.  You all can remind me in July if I am wrong. 

And what is your training and/or education to back up such an opinion?

Ironic that you are questioning the "minds" of medical and public health professionals. My wife is one of the former, is already overworked, and is working in chaotic conditions. Pray that you or your family don't have to be seen by her in the near future. Testing is near nonexistent, training is haphazard, protocols sporadically executed, and Negative pressure rooms and respirator time getting very hard to find.

     Thousands are likely to die. Just hope it's not tens of thousands. With the lack of testing, we don't have a clear idea how many have died already. 

    Hey, but if you get one more game in, that's all that matters, right?

It's tough but we have to keep the greater good in mind. If we keep kids in school and they end up passing the virus around, they might get a minor illness but end up exposing their parents and grandparents, who could get much sicker. We've all seen how much deadly this is for those age 70 and up.  I'm sure we've also seen the chart of how coronavirus spread exponentially in China and Italy. Frankly, due to lack of testing we don't know how many people actually have it here. It's a time for logic and caution. If we practice social distancing and some common sense, we can prevent hospitals becoming overwhelmed here by being filled with sick, elderly patients. It's about more than baseball right now. 

FoxDad posted:

Decision on high school sports still pending in Virginia (VHSL).   VHSL states they do not have the authority to cancel the regular season games, scrimmages and practices, only the state tournament.  It's up to the local school boards on whether to cancel the sport(s).  At this time our local school board is monitoring the situation.   Schools are still open and I assume practices for spring sports are ongoing.   Nothing in the local paper or on the school website.

Looks like VHSL has power to postpone but not cancel? As of now, spring sports have been put on hold until March 30.

https://www.newsadvance.com/ne...da-5982cec5c88a.html

Earlier article with some info

https://www.newsadvance.com

We have been suspended until March 29, with practices at coaches discretion.  My son is a PO.  Only had 2 outings but went in last night to close one inning in case it was our last game.  It’s been an incredible season for him so far and I’ll be really sad if it’s over.

Spring break for baseball which was to happen this upcoming week was cancelled.  School, which was scheduled to recommence on March 23, will be online from then until April 6.

57special posted:

JSKelley posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

If anyone here has a HS sports season outright cancelled, please post to let everyone know.   Momentum seems to be building for colleges (D3s anyhow) to take this step.  I'm about 70% expecting my son's senior HS baseball season to be shut down in the next few weeks.  (Not recommending that; it's just starting to seem likely.)

People have lost their minds.  Way overreacting.  This will all be gone in a month in warm weather states and probably two months for cold weather states.  You all can remind me in July if I am wrong. 

And what is your training and/or education to back up such an opinion?

Ironic that you are questioning the "minds" of medical and public health professionals. My wife is one of the former, is already overworked, and is working in chaotic conditions. Pray that you or your family don't have to be seen by her in the near future. Testing is near nonexistent, training is haphazard, protocols sporadically executed, and Negative pressure rooms and respirator time getting very hard to find.

     Thousands are likely to die. Just hope it's not tens of thousands. With the lack of testing, we don't have a clear idea how many have died already. 

    Hey, but if you get one more game in, that's all that matters, right?

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

DBAT-DFW posted:

57special posted:

JSKelley posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

If anyone here has a HS sports season outright cancelled, please post to let everyone know.   Momentum seems to be building for colleges (D3s anyhow) to take this step.  I'm about 70% expecting my son's senior HS baseball season to be shut down in the next few weeks.  (Not recommending that; it's just starting to seem likely.)

People have lost their minds.  Way overreacting.  This will all be gone in a month in warm weather states and probably two months for cold weather states.  You all can remind me in July if I am wrong. 

And what is your training and/or education to back up such an opinion?

Ironic that you are questioning the "minds" of medical and public health professionals. My wife is one of the former, is already overworked, and is working in chaotic conditions. Pray that you or your family don't have to be seen by her in the near future. Testing is near nonexistent, training is haphazard, protocols sporadically executed, and Negative pressure rooms and respirator time getting very hard to find.

     Thousands are likely to die. Just hope it's not tens of thousands. With the lack of testing, we don't have a clear idea how many have died already. 

    Hey, but if you get one more game in, that's all that matters, right?

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

 

As for me, thanks for the chicken little doomsday...I’m buying round trip tickets to Hawaii for this summer for $400 as I write this 👍🏼 

DBAT-DFW posted:

57special posted:

JSKelley posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

If anyone here has a HS sports season outright cancelled, please post to let everyone know.   Momentum seems to be building for colleges (D3s anyhow) to take this step.  I'm about 70% expecting my son's senior HS baseball season to be shut down in the next few weeks.  (Not recommending that; it's just starting to seem likely.)

People have lost their minds.  Way overreacting.  This will all be gone in a month in warm weather states and probably two months for cold weather states.  You all can remind me in July if I am wrong. 

And what is your training and/or education to back up such an opinion?

Ironic that you are questioning the "minds" of medical and public health professionals. My wife is one of the former, is already overworked, and is working in chaotic conditions. Pray that you or your family don't have to be seen by her in the near future. Testing is near nonexistent, training is haphazard, protocols sporadically executed, and Negative pressure rooms and respirator time getting very hard to find.

     Thousands are likely to die. Just hope it's not tens of thousands. With the lack of testing, we don't have a clear idea how many have died already. 

    Hey, but if you get one more game in, that's all that matters, right?

 mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease. 

 

Dead seems to me pretty incurable. The CDC itself projected that between 200,000 and 1.7 million people could die, and that between 160 million and 214 million will get sick. Seems an outcome worth avoiding.

DBAT-DFW posted:

57special posted:

JSKelley posted:

Chico Escuela posted:

If anyone here has a HS sports season outright cancelled, please post to let everyone know.   Momentum seems to be building for colleges (D3s anyhow) to take this step.  I'm about 70% expecting my son's senior HS baseball season to be shut down in the next few weeks.  (Not recommending that; it's just starting to seem likely.)

People have lost their minds.  Way overreacting.  This will all be gone in a month in warm weather states and probably two months for cold weather states.  You all can remind me in July if I am wrong. 

And what is your training and/or education to back up such an opinion?

Ironic that you are questioning the "minds" of medical and public health professionals. My wife is one of the former, is already overworked, and is working in chaotic conditions. Pray that you or your family don't have to be seen by her in the near future. Testing is near nonexistent, training is haphazard, protocols sporadically executed, and Negative pressure rooms and respirator time getting very hard to find.

     Thousands are likely to die. Just hope it's not tens of thousands. With the lack of testing, we don't have a clear idea how many have died already. 

    Hey, but if you get one more game in, that's all that matters, right?

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

 

Hmmm....  should I accept the advice of the CDC, WHO and every other reputable public health authority in the world, or some anonymous Internet commenter???? 

I should know better than to engage, but:  Do you think Dr. Fauci and other officials have some reason to want to cause a panic?  Do you think they don't have 401ks?  I'm completely serious.  Are they just psychopaths who want power and attention at any cost?  What's the basis for your opinion?

No one here thinks COVID-19 is "an incurable disease."  But the best information currently indicates that the coronavirus is about 10x more lethal than the typical seasonal flu.  That doesn't mean you will see tumbrels full of corpses wheeling down your street.  It does mean that the health care system could be stretched beyond its limits, and that a lot of people, mostly elderly or with some underlying illness, could die.  I have no idea how old you are.  I'm middle-aged and this virus is unlikely to do more to me physically than cause me a couple of really unpleasant weeks (although it could be much worse).  But I have elderly relatives, friends who have other conditions that make them vulnerable.  You probably do, too.  

My medical credentials come strictly from the University of Google, but I don't automatically assume every virus is going to behave in the same manner when those with actual medical training tell me they won't.  (And you do realize that SARS and other outbreaks were not a bigger problem in part because they were contained via public health measures, some taken in the US but most taken elsewhere?)  

The problem is, that if containment measures work and we avoid major problems, you and others will insist there was never a reason to do anything.  Obviously we can never know what would have happened if we had behaved differently.  But my biggest public health concern right now is folks who insist they know better than the medical experts and refuse to follow their recommendations.  The CDC isn't perfect and they may be wrong.  But they know more than me (and more than you, I assume).

If you broke leg, would you want to see an orthopedic surgeon or would you look for a baker?  The baker might be able to set your leg and would charge you a lot less.  The orthopedist might make a mistake and lame you for life.  But my guess is you'd play the odds.  That is the case here as well.  I don't enjoy the disruptions, I don't enjoy watching the value of my retirement investments drop.  But sometimes life is like that.

Dude, the CDC guidance is literally the same guidance that’s given for any other flu outbreak.  It’s literally no different.  The media did the exact same overhype last spring (spring of 2019) with the “super flu”.  Have you forgotten that?  Whatever happened to that flu?  Oh yea, it warmed up and it died out.  It’s not even a memory now.  The media never came back and said “oh we overreacted in our coverage and our statements (yet they did).  Maybe we all should not even care since the very same media said we would all be dead by now due to WW-III with Iran.  The media is doing what they always do...overhype to get viewership.  Sales revenue is driven by viewership.  The worse they make it seem, the more money they make.  I’ll gather my own information, and then make my own decisions after that.  I’ve got a flight booked next week.  I’m not worried in the least about taking it, despite the media and their ridiculous overhyped reporting.

DBAT-DFW posted:

Dude, the CDC guidance is literally the same guidance that’s given for any other flu outbreak.  It’s literally no different.  The media did the exact same overhype last spring (spring of 2019) with the “super flu”.  Have you forgotten that?  Whatever happened to that flu?  Oh yea, it warmed up and it died out.  It’s not even a memory now.  The media never came back and said “oh we overreacted in our coverage and our statements (yet they did).  Maybe we all should not even care since the very same media said we would all be dead by now due to WW-III with Iran.  The media is doing what they always do...overhype to get viewership.  Sales revenue is driven by viewership.  The worse they make it seem, the more money they make.  I’ll gather my own information, and then make my own decisions after that.  I’ve got a flight booked next week.  I’m not worried in the least about taking it, despite the media and their ridiculous overhyped reporting.

"The media did the exact same overhype last spring..."  Then why was the reaction COMPLETELY different last spring?

"The Media" made universities move to online classes?  Made governors close schools statewide?  Made every major sports league suspend its season?  But somehow "The Media" was never able to get even a fraction of this reaction in prior outbreaks, even though they were exactly the same?  

Ball's in your court--what's different this time?  And you haven't answered my question:  Why are CDC officials and others supporting these actions?  I have yet to hear Anthony Fauci or any other NIH, CDC or state health official state that the public is overreacting.  Do you really think Harvard, the state of Ohio, MLB and NBA all are acting because of what they see on TV, or do you think maybe, just maybe, before incurring hundreds of millions of dollars in potential losses they consulted with some experts and evaluated the evidence?  (And before you tell me they are afraid of getting sued:  I'm an attorney.  No--that's not enough to motivate decisions on this scale.  You put up a sign or a railing because you are worried about a lawsuit; you don't completely shut down multibillion dollar sports leagues.)

The only argument you have is "prior viruses weren't so bad."  That only makes sense if you have some reason to believe this virus isn't more dangerous than other seasonal flus.  As I said before--and as you refuse to acknowledge--the current scientific evidence is that this strain is in fact more dangerous (approximately 10x more lethal) than typical influenza.  Does that mean we are heading for an apocalypse?  No.  Is it serious?  I'm not qualified to say.  But every reputable health organization worldwide thinks so.  And I have yet to hear any reason why you think you know better than they do.

I'm done.  You can have the last word if you want.  I sincerely hope neither you nor anyone you care about is affected by COVID-19.  In fact, I hope you are right and it's really no big deal.  But at this point, I have no reason to think so.

P.S. -- No stockpile of TP at my house.  

I said in my original post that you could prove me wrong in July.  You couldn’t wait to prove me wrong today.  I’ll wait for your apology until July, but you better man up when it’s time.  I’ll do the same if it goes the other way.  

DBAT-DFW posted:

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

 

I wondered about this too.  So, I looked it up.  Here is what I found.

H1N1 first appeared in America in April 2009, AFTER spring break.  It started expanding, but then, like many influenzas, it subsided in the summer.  So, there was no need to cancel any baseball or other spring/summer sports (There is not a lot on HSBBW about H1N1 - I checked! - but there is some).  By August, "only" 1 million were infected and around 500 people had died.

They announced a vaccine by the end of September (the virus had been circulating long before that), and started vaccinating in mid-October.  However, as everyone went back to school/college and the weather cooled, it spread like mad; by mid-November there were 22 million cases and 4000 deaths, by mid-January there were 55 million cases and 11,000 deaths.  At its height, around 1000 schools were shut down.

So, the timing was very different.  And, with H1N1, older people, who otherwise have more health problems, HAD been exposed to it and had some immunity; it was younger people who were more affected.  With this coronavirus, no-one has been exposed before.

If you are elderly, and you go to church, and you catch it there from someone who travelled to a baseball game, and then you have to go to Intensive Care - is that irresponsible?  Whose irresponsibility it is?  I agree that if we could know who will get mild cases, we should actually encourage all of them to go out and get it now, quarantine, and get it out of the way.  But we are all intertwined with each other, including people with health risks, and so it doesn't work that way.

Basically, you can take the attitude that old and sick people will die anyway, so why wreck our lifestyle and economy for them - some countries seem to have that approach.  I'm kind of glad that that is not our approach.

DBAT-DFW posted:

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

 

H1N1 is not a coronavirus.  It was a novel influenza A virus.  They were able to use antiviral drugs to alleviate the symptoms and shorten the duration of the sickness.  And as someone said, since it's a variation of influenza A, some of the older people have immunity against this strain.  Furthermore, the mortality rate was around 0.1 and the R0 (transmission rate) was around 1.5 (1 infected person infects an average of 1.5 person).

SARS has a higher mortality rate than covid 19 and similar R0.  However, severe symptoms are present at once in infected people that it was easier to identify and isolate infected individuals.

In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1), and R0 of around 2.5.

The initial data shows that covid 19 is in the sweet spot of transmission rate, mortality rate, the severity of the symptoms, and when the symptoms start presenting.  Please consider all these information before arriving at your conclusion as your action can cause the death of someone.

atlnon posted:

DBAT-DFW posted:

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

H1N1 is not a coronavirus.  It was a novel influenza A virus.  They were able to use antiviral drugs to alleviate the symptoms and shorten the duration of the sickness.  And as someone said, since it's a variation of influenza A, some of the older people have immunity against this strain.  Furthermore, the mortality rate was around 0.1 and the R0 (transmission rate) was around 1.5 (1 infected person infects an average of 1.5 person).

SARS has a higher mortality rate than covid 19 and similar R0.  However, severe symptoms are present at once in infected people that it was easier to identify and isolate infected individuals.

In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1), and R0 of around 2.5.

The initial data shows that covid 19 is in the sweet spot of transmission rate, mortality rate, the severity of the symptoms, and when the symptoms start presenting.  Please consider all these information before arriving at your conclusion as your action can cause the death of someone.

Where are you getting this data?  

...”In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1)”...

It’s not even more than 1.0% in China, must less in the U.S. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...ratedRelated_article

the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.²

DBAT-DFW posted:

atlnon posted:

DBAT-DFW posted:

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

H1N1 is not a coronavirus.  It was a novel influenza A virus.  They were able to use antiviral drugs to alleviate the symptoms and shorten the duration of the sickness.  And as someone said, since it's a variation of influenza A, some of the older people have immunity against this strain.  Furthermore, the mortality rate was around 0.1 and the R0 (transmission rate) was around 1.5 (1 infected person infects an average of 1.5 person).

SARS has a higher mortality rate than covid 19 and similar R0.  However, severe symptoms are present at once in infected people that it was easier to identify and isolate infected individuals.

In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1), and R0 of around 2.5.

The initial data shows that covid 19 is in the sweet spot of transmission rate, mortality rate, the severity of the symptoms, and when the symptoms start presenting.  Please consider all these information before arriving at your conclusion as your action can cause the death of someone.

Where are you getting this data?  

...”In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1)”...

It’s not even more than 1.0% in China, must less in the U.S. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...ratedRelated_article

the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.²

https://www.thelancet.com/jour...(20)30195-X/fulltext

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/arti...26/6/20-0320_article

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Extract from the last link.  I do recognize that it is a constantly changing number, and that the numbers are based on confirmed case.  Not sure how they calculated H1N1.  But whatever number is used right now, it is still magnitude higher than H1N1.  It could change after the pandemic is over after scientist is able to truly assess it.  But H1N1 did not have this high a fatality rate when it was at this same point during the outbreak.

Global case fatality rate of COVID-19

DBAT-DFW, the NEJM article you cite is from Feb. 28--that's quite a while ago given how fast things are moving.  I'd argue the fairest answer on mortality rates is "nobody knows yet," but most estimates seem to be around 1%.  

Here's a link to an article appearing yesterday in The Lancet finding much higher rates than I generally have seen (5.7%) -- https://www.thelancet.com/jour...(20)30195-X/fulltext

WHO was using a 3.4% number for a while, but most sources I have seen say the rate is more like 1% (see this link, for example:  https://www.nytimes.com/intera...us-what-we-know.html)

Mortality for an average seasonal flu season is usually estimated at around 0.1% (e.g., see here:  https://khn.org/news/fact-chec...-flu-mortality-rate/).  That would make COVID-19, at the low end of current estimates, about 10 times as deadly as most influenza viruses.

Last winter, CDC estimated there were 34,200 influenza deaths in the USA.  (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html).  

Every number I cited above about the current outbreak could turn out to be wrong in either direction.     

DBAT-DFW posted:

atlnon posted:

DBAT-DFW posted:

Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY.  This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on.  You know what all those have in common?  Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on.  I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease.  If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe.  I’ve had the flu before.  I’ll probably get it again.  And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be.  You can’t get the same strain twice.  So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria.  I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.  

H1N1 is not a coronavirus.  It was a novel influenza A virus.  They were able to use antiviral drugs to alleviate the symptoms and shorten the duration of the sickness.  And as someone said, since it's a variation of influenza A, some of the older people have immunity against this strain.  Furthermore, the mortality rate was around 0.1 and the R0 (transmission rate) was around 1.5 (1 infected person infects an average of 1.5 person).

SARS has a higher mortality rate than covid 19 and similar R0.  However, severe symptoms are present at once in infected people that it was easier to identify and isolate infected individuals.

In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1), and R0 of around 2.5.

The initial data shows that covid 19 is in the sweet spot of transmission rate, mortality rate, the severity of the symptoms, and when the symptoms start presenting.  Please consider all these information before arriving at your conclusion as your action can cause the death of someone.

Where are you getting this data?  

...”In contrast, covid 19 has mortality rate of between 1 to 3.5% (multitude larger than seasonal flu and H1N1)”...

It’s not even more than 1.0% in China, must less in the U.S. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...ratedRelated_article

the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.²

The article that you quoted was from 2/28/20, which at this time, due to a very fluid evolving situation, is probably considered outdated. 

I still don't know why people feel comfort in regurgitating random statistics. I know they probably came directly off the CDC website or something similar, but it confuses me because these statistics are best guess at most. After all if you are not testing everyone then guess what happens? The numbers and ratios get skewed. I also can confirm from personal experience that there are quite a bit false negatives as well. Whether this comes from a faulty cartridge, testing too early in the disease process, or incompetent sample taking; your guess is as good as mine. That's why a lot of seasoned doctors will just treat empirically from a detailed exam of the patient. What they are actually saying when they do this is "through my years of experience I don't want a false negative to get in the way of effectively treating my patient." From a boots on the ground (ER personnel) perspective, the swine flu of 09 was actually much worse than most "numbers" pointed toward

  https://www.livescience.com/41...ath-toll-higher.html

I'll echo what I posted before. Back in 09 the general public really didn't care or notice that not adults, but kids were being hit the hardest. A couple of our local schools shut done for a week or so to deep clean, and on with life we went. Everybody is so up in arms to "save the elders" (which I do NOT disagree with), but I ask why weren't you doing the same for the  children. So I must ask, what do you think has changed??? If your having a hard time with that question then you've been self quarantined for a little over 3 years now. 

ReluctantO'sFan posted:

I still don't know why people feel comfort in regurgitating random statistics. I know they probably came directly off the CDC website or something similar, but it confuses me because these statistics are best guess at most. After all if you are not testing everyone then guess what happens? The numbers and ratios get skewed. I also can confirm from personal experience that there are quite a bit false negatives as well. Whether this comes from a faulty cartridge, testing too early in the disease process, or incompetent sample taking; your guess is as good as mine. That's why a lot of seasoned doctors will just treat empirically from a detailed exam of the patient. What they are actually saying when they do this is "through my years of experience I don't want a false negative to get in the way of effectively treating my patient." From a boots on the ground (ER personnel) perspective, the swine flu of 09 was actually much worse than most "numbers" pointed toward

  https://www.livescience.com/41...ath-toll-higher.html

I'll echo what I posted before. Back in 09 the general public really didn't care or notice that not adults, but kids were being hit the hardest. A couple of our local schools shut done for a week or so to deep clean, and on with life we went. Everybody is so up in arms to "save the elders" (which I do NOT disagree with), but I ask why weren't you doing the same for the  children. So I must ask, what do you think has changed??? If your having a hard time with that question then you've been self quarantined for a little over 3 years now. 

I will oversimplify this. “Children” which for the purpose of this discussion/post includes young people, are not in charge. 

Here is an excellent and very clear page that explains the risks; by a European, so not related to US politics:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/25...to-flatten-the-curve

I like what he says here:

And remember this: democracies deal with emergencies by relying on personal responsibility and voluntary behavioural change. Take this responsibility seriously. And demonstrate leadership. It is a common misconception that leadership lies with government only. This is not true. Leadership is everywhere. Every employer, every manager, every teacher, every public servant, every parent is a leader. Everyone who makes decisions on behalf of other people is a leader. Every handshake is a decision. If you're young and healthy and fall ill, you'll most likely be OK. But the best way to protect the groups at risk, like the elderly and those with chronic conditions, is not to catch the virus yourself. Deny it the opportunity to use your body as a vector. Fight it.

Update from Southern California. 2021’s league (private high schools) has suspended play until April 13th. His team has suspended practice until March 23rd, and will not resume non-league games until April 1st. Let’s give this thing a week or two and then see where we stand. Classes are going to be conducted on-line until Spring Break begins on April 6 through the 17th. Oh, and our game yesterday which was to be our last before the suspension was rained out and it is raining all of this next week anyway!

ReluctantO'sFan posted:

I still don't know why people feel comfort in regurgitating random statistics.

Because the alternative is... what, exactly?  Yes, every data point we have today may turn out to be incorrect.  But if we aren't going to follow the guidance of the CDC and state public health officials, then --- what?  Nihilism?  Willful ignorance?  

If what you mean is that we'd all be happier if we just stopped looking at the latest guesstimates, then you are probably right. Then again, when someone argues here that COVID-19 is just like seasonal influenza, if we don't point out the available numbers to refute that then all we can do is go round and round with "is not!; is, too!"

I've said this several times now:  I do not think "experts" are infallible.  I also don't think we have anything close to complete information.  But I believe in following the best guidance/info currently available.  If you want to argue that the current reaction is too much (or too little), then I'm willing to listen.  But I want to know what data you are relying on and why you think I should trust it.

As for why this is different than 2009:  In my area, at least, no schools or businesses closed then, and I wasn't told to start teaching my classes online.  If your argument is that we should have done more in 2009, then my response is "you could be right, but how does that impact what we are doing now?"  If you are contending that because 2009 proves this is an overreaction, then I'm willing to listen to your argument--but I don't have the power to re-open my kids schools or the university where I teach.  

We gotta flatten da curve. Don't want nursing assistants treating sick patients in tents or school gyms.

Before you tell me they are not the same, they somewhat are.   They are about life.  Many of the same people in my personal life who are in the biggest uproar about this virus are the same ones who are pro-abortion.  You can't say life is important in a virus pandemic and be pro-abortion.

GLOBAL INCIDENCE AND TRENDS

• During 2010–2014, an estimated 56 million induced abortions occurred each year worldwide. This number represents an increase from 50 million annually during 1990–1994, mainly because of population growth. 

• As of 2010–2014, the global annual rate of abortion for all women of reproductive age (15–44) is estimated to be 35 per 1,000, which is a reduction from the 1990–1994 rate of 40 per 1,000. 

• The estimated global abortion rate as of 2010–2014 is 35 per 1,000 for married women and 26 per 1,000 for unmarried women.¹

• Women in developing regions have a higher likelihood of having an abortion than those in developed regions—36 vs. 27 per 1,000.

• Between 1990–1994 and 2010–2014, the abortion rate declined markedly in developed regions, from 46 to 27 per 1,000, but remained roughly the same in developing regions.

• The annual number of abortions during the period fell in developed regions, from about 12 million to seven million; in contrast, the number increased in developing regions, from 38 million to 49 million, although this change mainly reflects the growth of the reproductive-age population.

• The proportion of abortions worldwide that occur in developing regions rose from 76% to 88% between 1990–1994 and 2010–2014.

• Globally, 25% of all pregnancies ended in abortion in 2010–2014. Between 1990–1994 and 2010–2014, the proportion of pregnancies ending in abortion fell from 39% to 27% in developed countries, while it rose from 21% to 24% in developing countries.¹

PitchingFan posted:

Before you tell me they are not the same, they somewhat are.   They are about life.  Many of the same people in my personal life who are in the biggest uproar about this virus are the same ones who are pro-abortion.  You can't say life is important in a virus pandemic and be pro-abortion.

GLOBAL INCIDENCE AND TRENDS

• During 2010–2014, an estimated 56 million induced abortions occurred each year worldwide. This number represents an increase from 50 million annually during 1990–1994, mainly because of population growth. 

• As of 2010–2014, the global annual rate of abortion for all women of reproductive age (15–44) is estimated to be 35 per 1,000, which is a reduction from the 1990–1994 rate of 40 per 1,000. 

• The estimated global abortion rate as of 2010–2014 is 35 per 1,000 for married women and 26 per 1,000 for unmarried women.¹

• Women in developing regions have a higher likelihood of having an abortion than those in developed regions—36 vs. 27 per 1,000.

• Between 1990–1994 and 2010–2014, the abortion rate declined markedly in developed regions, from 46 to 27 per 1,000, but remained roughly the same in developing regions.

• The annual number of abortions during the period fell in developed regions, from about 12 million to seven million; in contrast, the number increased in developing regions, from 38 million to 49 million, although this change mainly reflects the growth of the reproductive-age population.

• The proportion of abortions worldwide that occur in developing regions rose from 76% to 88% between 1990–1994 and 2010–2014.

• Globally, 25% of all pregnancies ended in abortion in 2010–2014. Between 1990–1994 and 2010–2014, the proportion of pregnancies ending in abortion fell from 39% to 27% in developed countries, while it rose from 21% to 24% in developing countries.¹

Dude, it’s not Sunday.  And this is the wrong platform for that speech! 

Why?  Everybody is bashing those who don't think we need to do all the closures because they don't care about life.  This is real life.  This is the same thing.  It is about life.  Whether it is by virus or surgery.  Sorry if I offended you.

PitchingFan posted:

Why?  Everybody is bashing those who don't think we need to do all the closures because they don't care about life.  This is real life.  This is the same thing.  It is about life.  Whether it is by virus or surgery.  Sorry if I offended you.

Well you sure aint letting a good crisis go to waste 🤯  dude not the time or place

I’m not offended. And these are the strangest of times for sure. But political and religious agendas don’t belong on this site. Plain and simple. 

this is neither political or religious.  It is about life.  I did not bring either into it.  I brought the same issue into it that we are talking about.  How important is life to us in our settings.  let's be honest that this is what we are ultimately arguing or discussing.  Whether our freedoms are worth someone losing their life or being faced with an illness.  Some people want their freedoms no matter what happens to others while others are willing to give up some of their freedoms to take care of others.  That is ultimately what we are debating on here.  Is giving up some baseball games or other things worth possibly saving other people's lives.  Or should they make their own choices and deal with the circumstances?  Is that not true?  Is our freedom worth someone else's life?  That is what this all comes down to.

While I agree with you Pitchingfan, I really don't know what the debate over if this is the end of times or not, if its political or not, etc. has to do with baseball?  All I really want to know is how does this affect my kid? his friends? next year?...is it a free for all? are NLIs going to mean anything? are rosters going to be 50+? what are our options? Are 2021s with verbals screwed? is the draft going to move to August? What is kids report for summer school as recruits, is the draft out?  Will they redshirt everyone?  Etc, Etc...the rest, is what it is.  We can't change the decisions whether we agree or not...its what's next?

My opinion on parts of this.   I think the top 25-50% in each class at almost every school committed is good.  I think 50-75% will move down a level.  P5 will go to mid major, mid major to low D1 and so on including 2020s who have signed NLI’s.  Some will go juco and some to D2/3/naia and so on.  NLIs will only have power if they want to stay but many will be told point blank we might have room on roster but we won’t have room in lineup. I think 20s-23s will feel the blunt of it except the top 25% of college bound players.  Others will end up going down a level. People keep saying that seniors will not come back but for the kid who was a good mid major D1 player for four years to have a shot at playing P5 ball his fifth year, I think he will come back and the same goes for some others.   They will apply for graduate   transfer   
My son will get four more years but so far this year it has cost me $6,000 an inning played.  He will have 3 shots to be drafted unless they change something with that.  Great negotiating power after jr year, some after sr year and none after 5th year.  
as others Jmho 

PitchingFan posted:

My opinion on parts of this.   I think the top 25-50% in each class at almost every school committed is good.  I think 50-75% will move down a level.  P5 will go to mid major, mid major to low D1 and so on including 2020s who have signed NLI’s.  Some will go juco and some to D2/3/naia and so on.  NLIs will only have power if they want to stay but many will be told point blank we might have room on roster but we won’t have room in lineup. I think 20s-23s will feel the blunt of it except the top 25% of college bound players.  Others will end up going down a level. People keep saying that seniors will not come back but for the kid who was a good mid major D1 player for four years to have a shot at playing P5 ball his fifth year, I think he will come back and the same goes for some others.   They will apply for graduate   transfer   
My son will get four more years but so far this year it has cost me $6,000 an inning played.  He will have 3 shots to be drafted unless they change something with that.  Great negotiating power after jr year, some after sr year and none after 5th year.  
as others Jmho 

The issue here is acceptance to schools.  2020 deadlines have passed, or about to pass at every school for fall.   I suppose players could apply for Spring 2021.  I have a very hard time seeing commitments being pulled from 2020's at this point.   I guess 2020's could just be cut, prob the more likely outcome.  The coaches will need time to see who graduates and moves onto the real world to determine roster needs.  I have no doubt that there will be current college players using all 4 years of their eligibility but the numbers might not be as large as some think.  At my 2020's college commitment, there is a master's program but the cost of that program for 1 year is $100k or you could opt to get an MBA in 1 year accelerated at only $130k.  So players staying for a master's year is low in my opinion but perhaps there are D1 kids being forced out that would now consider D3.  Most certainly many more transfers than usual will occur.   We will just roll with the punches and figure it out.

Many will decide to move on and graduate on schedule.  And cost will surely be a big factor.  But remember that overall applications to grad school went up >8% per year during the last recession.  I think people are smarter about taking on student loan debt than they were ten years ago; but if the economy slows, that will affect the number of players who decide to postpone entry into the job market.

“I guess 2020's could just be cut, prob the more likely outcome.”

This applies to all players, not just 2020s (in our experience with D1).  Coaches keep those that he thinks will help the program win  

Had my son been in this situation I would have encouraged him to think mid major. It’s hard enough to earn opportunities as a middle of the pack freshman prospect and prove yourself. It will be harder next year.

Amyone who is middle of the pack at the level they would normally target might want to think about targeting down a level.

RJM posted:

Had my son been in this situation I would have encouraged him to think mid major. It’s hard enough to earn opportunities as a middle of the pack freshman prospect and prove yourself. It will be harder next year.

Amyone who is middle of the pack at the level they would normally target might want to think about targeting down a level.

This!