draft and follow...In my opinion, would be geared towards the player drafted in the lower rounds because the scout feels there is a problem with signability or that the kid should go to school for a year and add a year of maturity to his body and to his game. The organization maintains rights to the player until a week or so (not sure the exact time in days...could be a few days instead of a week) before the next June draft. Gives a club nearly a year to work out a deal with the kid.

Signing with a 4 year school would not necessarily improve your chances of being drafted in a higher round, if only because the teams might simply stay away from you if they were unwilling to give you a bonus and also provide you with "coverage" for school tuition as part of the bonus package.

I would say that signing with a 4 year school gives you leverage to get more money but I wouldn't say that it improves your chances of being drafted in a higher round. If you are already likely to be drafted in a higher round (top 5 rounds), signing with a 4 year school would make very little difference to a team. They budget for each round, likely including an amount for college.
I was D-n-F out of high school!! It is a good situation for you but can turn out bad in the end. Team keeps rights for you for 52 weeks which ends up being two weeks before the next draft. Contract negotiations are allowed the entire time. Only bad part i felt was no other team's scouts were allowed to talk with me.

Regarding the four year school question it may bump you up a few spots but nothing significant. Draft position depends on alot of things. What school you sign with isn't one of the major weighing factors.
Ok. I'm really confused...

Things have picked up a wee bit so I need to educate myself and my son about what to expect if he were to get drafted (that is at all)...

Now......I only want to be educated if there comes a need to be...

Questions?

1. Ok. If you are drafted in the lower rounds - what is considered to be the break off to become draft to follow?

2. Is that something you are offered? Do they ask you to consider that scenario? How would that play out?

3. So if you are draft to follow how do you gain leverage by going JUCO if that happens?

4. But if you've signed a NLI with a 4 year university can you even consider the draft to follow?

5. If you are draft to follow...how would you factor in tuition (didn't understand what BeenthereIL meant in the above post with regard to that)?

6. So the other pro scouts are off limits if you do this?

As you see I've got a host of questions and need some help. I guess some new twists and turns are making us want to be informed in this area a bit more...

Thanks as always...Pam
What does draft and follow mean?
Draft and follow, otherwise known as draft-follow-evaluate (DFE) applies to the June Amateur Draft. DFE candidates are players that choose to attend a junior college instead of signing with the drafting team. A team has rights to that player until shortly before the next year's draft. If the player does not sign with the team, he is eligible to re-enter the June Amateur Draft.


You might like to peruse this article

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/9911dfe.html
quote:
Originally posted by Texas2004:
Ok. I'm really confused...

Things have picked up a wee bit so I need to educate myself and my son about what to expect if he were to get drafted (that is at all)...

Now......I only want to be educated if there comes a need to be...

Questions?

1. Ok. If you are drafted in the lower rounds - what is considered to be the break off to become draft to follow?

1.There is no break off point...most Df's go in the later rounds, but some will go in the teens.
2. Is that something you are offered? Do they ask you to consider that scenario? How would that play out?

2. Most scouts will D&F a player that they know is headed to a JC.When drafted, they still have to offer you a contract.

3. So if you are draft to follow how do you gain leverage by going JUCO if that happens?

3. The only leverage you gain is if you get better as a player.

4. But if you've signed a NLI with a 4 year university can you even consider the draft to follow?

4. If you are headed to a 4year school, you won't be D&f'd. Once you step into your first class in the fall the club loses it's rights to you.

5. If you are draft to follow...how would you factor in tuition (didn't understand what BeenthereIL meant in the above post with regard to that)?

5. Tuition would be factored in only if the club signs you and the tuition is negotiated in the contract.

6. So the other pro scouts are off limits if you do this?

6. If you are a D&F, no other teams are allowed to talk to you as long as you are under control. They can scout you, but can't talk to you.

As you see I've got a host of questions and need some help. I guess some new twists and turns are making us want to be informed in this area a bit more...

Thanks as always...Pam



Hope this helps Pam. PM me is you need more extensive info.
4. But if you've signed a NLI with a 4 year university can you even consider the draft to follow?

"4. If you are headed to a 4year school, you won't be D&f'd. Once you step into your first class in the fall the club loses it's rights to you."

Just like to add that you CAN sign a NLI AND still decide at any point PRIOR to starting at the 4 year school to go to a JC.

At that point, regardless of what round your Son was drafted, he can sign after the end of th JC season or go back in the next draft.

Wouldn't advise you to discuss JC until after the draft. If MLB thinks you're going JC, it can turn an 8th round pick into a 28th round pick real quick.
voodoo...why? Could you elaborate on why that would be...mine is signed with a university and very happy with his decision..but I'm the researcher in the family...so sorting as I go...is my job.

quoted by voodoo...
"Wouldn't advise you to discuss JC until after the draft. If MLB thinks you're going JC, it can turn an 8th round pick into a 28th round pick real quick."
quote:
Originally posted by marlins:
we were told that because my son is going to go a jr college he will be a draft and follow... His dream is to go pro...Your saying it would be to his advantage to sign with a 4 yr school


I'm saying that your Son will go lower than otherwise if MLB knows they will have a year to own his rights at no cost.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Texas2004:
voodoo...for real?

"so then...what's the purpose in draft N Follow?"

The purpose of DNF is that the team gets to hold a Players' rights at no cost to the team until a week before the next draft & see if he progresses enough to make it worth their while to sign him. From the Players perspective, you have the chance to go back in the draft after only one year rather than 3 years as is the case at a 4 year school.

So if your Son is drafted by a lousy organization &/or wants to play Pro ball sooner rather than later it is a desirable option.
You actually have more leverage... to a degree because a Player can be drafted after his Freshman, Sophmore, Junior & Senior Years instead of as a HS Senior, College Junior or Senior.

"Do they offer the player and then...watch?"

They have to make an offer but it can be as little as a contract for $850/month with no signing bonus. Then they watch him & see if for example he's a Pitcher & his FB goes from 86 to 92 or he gets command of his breaking pitches etc. then they offer him what they think he'll get if he goes back in the draft. They can also offer him nothing & let someone(or no one) else take him.

"It doesn't up your odds? Or does it?"

I would use DNF for a Player that wants to sign sooner rather than later as "insurance" against being drafted by a team with a poor track record of Player Development . If I was you, I would do my homework on the many great JC programs around the country so you know what's up. Be discreet & be sure to tell the JC Coaches to be discreet as well & that if your Son signs there, it won't be until after the draft.
voodoo,

I agree with nearly everything you're saying. Except, we have seen several players who have been drafted only because they were committed to a JUCO. In other words they would not have been drafted at all had they been insistant on attending a 4 year school. For these players, waiting until after the draft to commit to a JUCO could get them undrafted.

While it is rare, we know of one D&F who signed after his first year at a JUCO (with the club that drafted him) for late 1st round money.

So, there can be an advantage in some cases in committing to a JUCO before the draft, and specifically because of the draft. I suppose you already know that and are speaking more in terms of leverage.

Not much leverage involved in JUCO signings.
now that opens up another question?

So how does someone track or research to see if an pro team develops their players?

And what about - how or what would someone consider to be "lousy" (not my words)organization? Surely, it's not only their win/loss record but what other things would you take into account?

Sorry for all the questions, but each answer just makes me ask more...

"I agree with nearly everything you're saying. Except, we have seen several players who have been drafted only because they were committed to a JUCO. In other words they would not have been drafted at all had they been insistant on attending a 4 year school. For these players, waiting until after the draft to commit to a JUCO could get them undrafted."

In my experience, that would seem to be true for players that were pretty marginal prospects.

"While it is rare, we know of one D&F who signed after his first year at a JUCO (with the club that drafted him) for late 1st round money."

It has happened & will happen more & more as time goes by. The reason being that as the attempt at "slotting" continues, more people will find this a viable option for them.
"So how does someone track or research to see if an pro team develops their players?"

Look at their Major League roster to see how many of the players were signed &/or developed by their organization vs. how many were Free Agents from other organizations.

"And what about - how or what would someone consider to be "lousy" "

An organization that consistently does not develop its' own Major League players &/or the players they do develop fail to ever reach any sort of expectations at the Major League level.

"Sorry for all the questions, but each answer just makes me ask more..."

No problem, don't mind a bit.

[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:
There are no lousy MLB organizations.

I respectfully disagree. How else can you explain organizations like Milwaukee that have done nothing but lose for decades? Despite drafting most years in the top 10 picks, how many great players have they developed in the last 10 years?
quote:
Originally posted by njbb:
I assume you mean to have leverage in the draft, you should be signed with d1 prior to draft with a back up plan with a JC.

Correct!

What if because of grades d1 is not option?

Look into good D2 &/or NAIA schools like Lewis &Clark, BIOLA Univ. etc. but keeps the JC to yourself as an option .


Voodoo,

What Goes around... comes around.

The Twins were in the same position, if not worse 5 years ago.

The Brewers have a very talented farm system at this time. Money is always a problem, but the developmental systems are more equal than many people think.

It doesn't take a zillion dollars to have good instructors and coaching. It's better to be the first pick of one of those "lousy" organizations than the 5th to 10th pick of one of the best. Being an agent I would think you might agree.
Might it not also be better to be drafted by one of those 'lousy', small-market, money-strapped clubs....who depend on their farm systems to promote, rather than the Yankees-Braves types who spend money on bringing in FAs?

---------------------------------
From 'Nice Guys Finish Last' by Leo Durocher:

Baseball lives at the center of a never-flagging whirl of irreconcilable opinions.
PGStaff,
Speaking of the Milwaukee Brewers, they just hired former Powell HS (TN) player and minor league player (Baltimore & AZ); Stanton Cameron as a hitting coach for Class A High Desert in the CA league.

Stanton worked with my sons in the off season years ago. He started a local baseball school in the Knoxville area, but could never really compete with our other two schools. I always like him and I hope he does well in his new venture.

"If you make every game a life and death proposition, you're going to have problems. For one thing, you'll be dead a lot."
[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:
Voodoo,

What Goes around... comes around.

The Twins were in the same position, if not worse 5 years ago.

Not true. No organization has had a run to equal the pathetic ineptitude of the Brewers. The Twins' problems were strictly financial. The Brewers problems went much deeper i.e. mistakes like Antone williamson, Kenny felder, Kyle Peterson etc. etc. when MUCH better players(Nomahh for example) were taken later. In addition, their Major League staff has had brain dead blunders like Jeffrey Hammonds(3 years $21 million after a career on the DL) to set them back further.

"The Brewers have a very talented farm system at this time."

Yes, they have some players that are highly rated at the AA/A level. Only time will tell how many of those ever pan out. Particularly with the questionable leadership now in their front office. $5 says either they turn out to be not that great or they get traded for a bag of shells.

"Money is always a problem, but the developmental systems are more equal than many people think."

Check the numbers PG, you'll find this is not true. Year in & year out you'll find some teams seem to always have a good to at least decent Player Development (Blue Jays, Dodgers, A's, Braves) program while others are mediocre to terrible (Brewers,Tigers).

"It's better to be the first pick of one of those "lousy" organizations than the 5th to 10th pick of one of the best. Being an agent I would think you might agree."

Vehemently disagree because the real money is in the Major Leagues not the draft. If you're the #1 pick of a team with a lousy Player Development program, you may be a millionaire. However, even if you're not drafted as high but you sign with a team with a good Player Development program you may be a MULTI, MULTI millionaire like Mike Piazza, Don Mattingly, Eric Gagne, Tim Hudson etc.
Voodoo,

Let's just say we disagree then.

You get your pick of 30 5th to 10th rounders and I'll take the 30 1st rounders. Then let's check 7 years down the road and see who has made the most money.

Are you saying you would rather have your player go in the 5th-10th round to the Dodgers or Braves than the 1st round to the Brewers?

Also, jobs change with the wind in MLB. How many have the same staff they had 10 years ago? I won't argue against some being better than the others, but even though not equal, they are all capable of developing players.
"Let's just say we disagree then."

OK

"You get your pick of 30 5th to 10th rounders and I'll take the 30 1st rounders. Then let's check 7 years down the road and see who has made the most money."

Not valid comparison. I didn't say all 1st rounders won't make it. I said the 1st rounders of lousy organizations are less likely to make it. Guarantee you I could have done a better job the last 10 years than the Brewers & Tigers have done particularly considering how high they've picked.

"Are you saying you would rather have your player go in the 5th-10th round to the Dodgers or Braves than the 1st round to the Brewerss?"

Yes. If a player gets $100,000 from a good organization & makes it to the Majors for any length of time, he'll make more than a guy like Kyle Peterson who signs with a lousy organization like the Brewers for $1 mill+ & is out of Baseball 5 years later.

"Also, jobs change with the wind in MLB. How many have the same staff they had 10 years ago?"

How is that relevant to the subject?

"I won't argue against some being better than the others, but even though not equal..."

Glad to see you've finally you conceded my point.
Voodoo,

Tigers had Bonderman up all year. He was a first Rounder a couple years ago.

Brewers had Ricky Weeks up last year. He has a MLB contract. He was 1st round last June.

I believe you know what you’re talking about, I just don't think your correct in this case.

Rather than argue isolated cases, why not provide the facts based on the past 10 or more years. 1st Round picks by team who made the big leagues. This info is available to anyone, let alone agents.

Isolated cases can be misleading. Remember the Yankees taking Brian Taylor and paying him a record signing bonus? He got hurt and never made it. Many things can happen that keep players from making it.

There's only two ways for a player to make big money as a baseball player in the USA. One is being in the Big Leagues. What is the other?

Please don't say that you would rather have your client drafted in the 5th round by a certain team like the Dodgers, rather than being one of the 1st picks of the draft by the Tigers or Brewers. If that’s what you’re saying, I'm not buying that even a little!

I do agree that making the Big Leagues is the most important thing. Please look at the figures listed at the end of this post. Note the percentage of each round making the ML. About half (50%) of all first rounders play in the Big Leagues three or more years. 12% of the 5th rounders play three or more years. That figure continues to drop each and every round. For example only about 8% of those drafted in rounds 6-10 have played 3 or more years. 11-20 is about 4%.

A few examples to look over:

1990 Tony Clark Tigers 1st round
1990 Ron Walden Dodgers 1st round
1991 Jeff Cirillo Brewers 1st round
1992 Chris Gomez, Tigers 3rd round (1st player to the Majors from this draft)
1992 Dodgers. Los Angeles avoided being shut out altogether on this class when well-traveled infielder Keith Johnson 4th round, at 29, was unexpectedly called up.
1993 Darin Dreifert Dodgers 1st round
1993 Matt Brunson Tigers 1st round
1994 Antone Williamson Brewers 1st round
1994 Paul Konerko Dodgers 1st round
A few players selected ahead of Nomar that year included Williamson, Josh Booty (Marlins), McKay Christensen (Angels), Doug Million (Rockies), C.J. Nitkowski (Reds)
1995 Geoff Jenkins Brewers 1st round
1995 Dodgers. Set-up man Onan Masaoka 3rd round may be all the Dodgers have to show for this draft. Their top two picks have already washed out, and none of the others is on the fast track.
1996 Chad Green Brewers 1st round
1997 Matt Anderson Tigers 1st round (one of first from that year to appear in the Big Leagues)
1998 Jeff Weaver Tigers 1st round (one of first from that year to appear in the Big Leagues)
1999 Ben Sheets Brewers 1st round (first player from this draft in the Big Leagues)
1999 Eric Munson Tigers 1st round
2000 Dodgers. Ben Diggins 1st round
2000 Tigers. Matt Wheatland 1st round
2000 Brewers. David Krynzel 1st round
2001 Tigers. #Kenny Baugh 1st round
2001 Brewers. Mike Jones 1st round
2001 Athletics. Jeremy Bonderman (first to the Big Leagues with the Tigers)
2002 Brewers. Prince Fielder 1st round (Minor League player of the year)
2002 Tigers. Scott Moore 1st round
2002 Dodgers. James Loney 1st round
2003 Brewers Rickie Weeks 1st round (first player from this draft in the Big Leagues)
2003 Tigers Kyle Sleeth 1st round
2003 Dodgers Chad Billingsley 1st round

Here is a study that Allan Simpson (Baseball America) did on the 1965 to 1995 draft classes.

15,660 Players drafted, rounds 1-20
2,687 Played in major leagues
1,627 Played in major leagues more than three years

774 First-round picks
502 or 65% Played in major leagues
377 or 49% Played in major leagues more than three years

84 Supplemental first-round picks
49 or 58% Played in major leagues
30 or 36% Played in major leagues more than three years

774 Second-round picks
322 0r 41% Played in major leagues
199 or 26% Played in major leagues more than three years

774 Third-round picks
241 or 31% Played in major leagues
159 or 21% Played in major leagues more than three years

782 Fourth-round picks
186 or 24% Played in major leagues
114 or 15% Played in major leagues more than three years

782 Fifth-round picks
181 or 23% Played in major leagues
94 or 12% Played in major leagues more than three years

3,890 Players drafted, rounds 6-10
604 or 15% Played in major leagues
337 or 8.6% Played in major leagues more than three years

I’m not trying to win any debates, but the truth is an important little detail! That’s the reason I went to all the trouble of researching the above information. By the way, I do agree that the Dodgers are an outstanding organization.
voodoo...PGstaff..and bbscout...?

I'm enjoying the thread...and being a person who likes statistics...especially liked PG's last group of stats.

Let me throw this out?

Statistically speaking...let's say...

If a player goes in the lower rounds. And he heads off to a 4 year university. Puts up some good #'s or should I say really good #'s, and grows maturity wise and physcially and gains command on the mound - and lets say he's throwing low 90's (91-94) consistently with a couple of other really solid off speed pitches...

What might the odds be that he's increased his chances to be drafted higher by his junior year or by age 21?

Or what if he's throwing 89-91 now...is 6'1 and really has a few whiskers and his dad is 6"4...so he might grow...ya know...

I guess I ask this because my son was talking to a scout (who was with another person) and this scout was giving advice and and sharing infor...just a friendly conversation.

He mentioned something about "why would a MLB team want the guy tossing low 90's at 21 when he can take the high school player who was right behind that guy and so much younger and develop him."

How would someone really benefit from the Draft and Follow in this case...? Any thoughts...
Projectability is an interesting thing. I really believe that some guys will develop late and that college may be a good place for them. If a kid out of HS is 90mph, but still isn't mature or developed, maybe college is the best place for him.

quote:
"why would a MLB team want the guy tossing low 90's at 21 when he can take the high school player who was right behind that guy and so much younger and develop him."



What if he is 90, but is immature and will develop to 95 after three years of college. Do they want him then?

"I love the HSBBW"
Texas2004,

I can't completely answer your question. There are as many variables as there are players.

First there is the individual clubs and their philosophy on the draft. Now days, some are college player ahead of high school player, no matter what. Others, like the Braves, lean to high school players first.

Roy Clark (Braves Scouting Director) told me drafting high school prospects takes more work and pays bigger dividends. He told me "Weren't they all in high school at some point"? It's just a matter of drafting the right ones at the right time.

Projection covers a large area. Obvious is size, body type and projected growth, but everything from mechanics to arm action to blood lines to work ethic plays a role. Sometimes we project backwards. For example it's easy to project a tall, skinny pitcher with good shoulders and long limbs. We have projected based on the opposite. Big fat kids with the above traights have proven to make it big once they got themselves toned up. One such pitcher from Ohio we saw at 275 lbs last winter. He threw mid 80s, but we were very high on him. This October he was 230 in Jupiter, he threw 92 with a very good breaking ball. Reports are he's even higher right now.

Obviously the younger a player is, the more projection necessary.

Normally the easiest way to explain it is:

High School Prospect is higher risk-higher reward.

College Star is less risk

If you look at last years MLB All Star rosters, you will see the great majority of those players, did not play college baseball.

You got the Josh Beckett's and you got the Mark Prior's. The Kerry Wood's, the Roger Clemen's. The Pedro's and Johnson's. The Maddux and the Pettite.

All things being equal the younger player is the most projectable and the best pick. IMO, many will disagree.

Then again does he project to become as good as Mark Prior?
There are many great colleges that develop great talent. It depends on which college.

That said, Professional Baseball is by far the best developmental system. If for no other reasons (and there are other reasons)
1. It provides the best competition.
2. Coaches and Instructors are all professionals.
3. It's baseball only (every day) no studying chemistry or other tough classes to take up the time.
4. Longer season, more games
5. Adjusting to the life style, crowds, travel, media, etc.

That said, the college route is best for most players. It provides other areas of development that are even more important in life than baseball.

And as said before, going to college can really make some players much more attractive in the draft.
Itsinthegame,

Looks like you moved to NC.

BBScout may have more knowledge regarding a smaller draft and how it will effect D&Fs.

My opinion is it will lower the number of D&Fs significantly. With more clubs drafting college players and less rounds in the draft, something has got to give.

I really wish they would stay with 50 rounds. It's a good number and allows the clubs an opportunity to take some long shots as D&Fs or 4th year college players.

Signability will become even more important.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:
Voodoo,

"Tigers had Bonderman up all year. He was a first Rounder a couple years ago."

Drafted by the A's & being in the Majors for 1 year hardly makes him a total success.

"Brewers had Ricky Weeks up last year."

He was only in the Majors because "He has a MLB contract." Let's see if he's there 3 years from now as more than a utility player then we can talk. Also, how tough is it to get a good player when you're drafting #2?

I never said it wasn't an advantage to be a #1 pick. What I was saying is that regardless of round, you're odds are better if you're not drafted by a 3 ring circus like the Brewers.

"Please don't say that you would rather have your client drafted in the 5th round by a certain team like the Dodgers, rather than being one of the 1st picks of the draft by the Tigers or Brewers. If that’s what you’re saying, I'm not buying that even a little!"

Sorry but that's exactly what I'm saying. I want my clients to make it to the Majors. that's where the serious $$$ is & I've got a kid to send to college in 2 years(LOL).

"I do agree that making the Big Leagues is the most important thing. Please look at the figures listed at the end of this post."

OK so at least we can agree on something. I've been aware of these percentages for more than 20 years.


"A few examples to look over:

1990 Tony Clark Tigers 1st round (big time underachiever)
1990 Ron Walden Dodgers 1st round (where is he now)
1991 Jeff Cirillo Brewers 1st round
1992 Chris Gomez, Tigers 3rd round (1st player to the Majors from this draft)
1992 Dodgers. Los Angeles avoided being shut out altogether on this class when well-traveled infielder Keith Johnson 4th round, at 29, was unexpectedly called up.
1993 Darin Dreifert Dodgers 1st round (HUGE under achiever with blackmail pictures of Kevin Malone to get the $$$ he's gotten from LA)

1993 Matt Brunson Tigers 1st round (where is he now?)
1994 Antone Williamson Brewers 1st round (where is he now?)
1994 Paul Konerko Dodgers 1st round (solid player)

A few players selected ahead of Nomar that year included Williamson, Josh Booty (Marlins), (NFL) McKay Christensen (Angels) (Minor Leagues), Doug Million (Rockies) (deceased), C.J. Nitkowski (Reds)(where is he now)?
1995 Geoff Jenkins Brewers 1st round" (DL all-Star).

OK so what's your point? Again, I never said it wasn't an advantage to be a #1 pick. What I was saying is that regardless of round, you're odds are better if you're not drafted by a 3 ring circus like the Brewers.

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