Elephant in the room

I find it macabre(would've said funny, except that so much preventable death is involved )that Sweden is being held up as a model for how to deal with this virus. It's death rates are off the charts, especially compared to those of their neighbors in Denmark, Finland, and Norway.

   At this point, we have no idea if having the virus once makes you immune to getting it a second time. A Yale university study has just concluded  that the virus is more contagious in the pre-symptomatic phase. There is so much we don't know, but this we do know... people are dying in far greater amounts than they have with any flu epidemic in the past century. 

   I don't understand the reluctance to listen to the advice of health professionals. I DO understand the economic pain many are suffering. 

@RJM posted:

Your post just made me think of something absurd. You can travel the 655 mile length of California without any restrictions. Yet, when I travel from just north of Boston back to Portland, Maine I’m supposed to quarantine (fat chance) for fourteen days. It’s 20 miles from the MA state line to the ME state line.

It's New Hampshire's fault.

When the protestors entered the Michigan capitol there were no mask rules at that time. 

@TPM posted:

I saw on TV that many beach towns around the country do not have the personnel to keep people off the beaches. People want to have their freedom, but are not willing to show the responsibility to earn it.

 

so I woke up this morning still pissed off at this comment. It literally goes against EVERYTHING our country was founded on. I would rather die then have to ASK for permission from TPM of any other group of whacks who think FREEDOM needs to be earned. do some searching on governments where people need to earn freedom, it is an impressive list of societies I am sure you would have thrived under...you really can't fix stupid. 

@57special posted:

I find it macabre(would've said funny, except that so much preventable death is involved )that Sweden is being held up as a model for how to deal with this virus. It's death rates are off the charts, especially compared to those of their neighbors in Denmark, Finland, and Norway.

   At this point, we have no idea if having the virus once makes you immune to getting it a second time. A Yale university study has just concluded  that the virus is more contagious in the pre-symptomatic phase. There is so much we don't know, but this we do know... people are dying in far greater amounts than they have with any flu epidemic in the past century. 

   I don't understand the reluctance to listen to the advice of health professionals. I DO understand the economic pain many are suffering. 

We better hope you can gain some type of immunity. Otherwise it is highly unlikely we will ever see a vaccine for it. 

@RoadRunner posted:

https://off-guardian.org/2020/...wave-not-even-close/
This is an interesting article, mainly about herd immunity. The article defines terms differently than others I have read and that is why I posted it. It would be nice if the author is correct. We can only hope. 

I think this article shows how difficult it is for people to separate their politics from their understanding of the virus.  

If you lean right, their are plenty of sources and legitimate scientific medical interpretations to support an agenda.   If you lean left, the same is true.  

This is why I have encouraged all to look at data for themselves, then come to their own conclusions.   The  author of this article has done a good job of showing how to do that, without just shouting cases are up, or deaths are down.   

This morning on NPR, they reported that the test positive rate in AZ is 27%.  In all likelihood, we will get to herd immunity before a vaccine.

@old_school posted:

I do seem to recall  the opening of D of I including Life, LIBERTY, and the Pursuit  of happiness as unalienable, not earned.

@Pedaldad posted:

I think this article shows how difficult it is for people to separate their politics from their understanding of the virus.  

If you lean right, their are plenty of sources and legitimate scientific medical interpretations to support an agenda.   If you lean left, the same is true.  

This is why I have encouraged all to look at data for themselves, then come to their own conclusions.   The  author of this article has done a good job of showing how to do that, without just shouting cases are up, or deaths are down.   

This morning on NPR, they reported that the test positive rate in AZ is 27%.  In all likelihood, we will get to herd immunity before a vaccine.

 

You get extra credit for properly spelling herd in the context that it was used. 

@Pedaldad posted:

I do seem to recall  the opening of D of I including Life, LIBERTY, and the Pursuit  of happiness as unalienable, not earned.

One side thinks that if they say it enough their followers will start to believe that. That mentality is what is pissing people off about forcing them to wear masks. 

@old_school posted:

so I woke up this morning still pissed off at this comment. It literally goes against EVERYTHING our country was founded on. I would rather die then have to ASK for permission from TPM of any other group of whacks who think FREEDOM needs to be earned. do some searching on governments where people need to earn freedom, it is an impressive list of societies I am sure you would have thrived under...you really can't fix stupid. 

You know, old_school, I was so bothered by your comment that I spent most of last evening reading about the history of the founding fathers and the idea of liberty and responsibility.  So thank you, I don't think I had ever actually read the Federalist Papers.  You might be interested to take a look at this page about James Madison, from that neo-Marxist organization, The Heritage Foundation, which notes that "Madison's contributions to the American Republic are best summarized by his lifelong dedication to the principles of freedom and responsibility." (https://www.heritage.org/polit...her-the-constitution).

Madison noted in Federalist #10 that "A zeal for different opinions concerning religion, concerning government, and many other points, as well of speculation as of practice; an attachment to different leaders ambitiously contending for pre-eminence and power; or to persons of other descriptions whose fortunes have been interesting to the human passions, have, in turn, divided mankind into parties, inflamed them with mutual animosity, and rendered them much more disposed to vex and oppress each other than to co-operate for their common good."  (wow, I guess things haven't changed much from the 1780s to today)  He goes on to say that a republican form of government is the best way to enable people to work for the common good. 

"A nation as a society forms a moral person, and every member of it is personally responsible for his society."
- Thomas Jefferson

@Pedaldad posted:

If you lean right, their are plenty of sources and legitimate scientific medical interpretations to support an agenda.   If you lean left, the same is true.  

This is why I have encouraged all to look at data for themselves, then come to their own conclusions.   The  author of this article has done a good job of showing how to do that, without just shouting cases are up, or deaths are down. 

It's very clear that new knowledge is coming in all the time.  I was particularly struck by one study referenced here that showed that some people have no antibodies, but do have T-cells that seem to have a protective effect.  Unfortunately, the study was based on a total of only 17 people.  It (and most of the others) are still pre-prints, that is, not yet reviewed and published.

The problem is, there has to be a public health policy, not "everyone coming to their own conclusions."  Responsible public health officials will hopefully incorporate reliable new studies as they come in.

I didn't want to get in this but I had this conversation with our teenagers last night about going back to school.  We actually talked about the common good.  One 14 year old girl said "but it depends on whose eyes you are looking through to have a definition of the common good.  Adults are thinking through adult eyes and also wanting to protect themselves.  Teenagers are wanting to live life like we always have and continue doing the things we have done.  We are not getting Corona in numbers enough to stop doing that.  Common good is for the masses not the minority."

I was amazed at the logic of a young lady.  She was dead on.  I'm sure she has heard this at home or somewhere but to articulate it so well is amazing.  It really does depend on what eyes you are looking through to see the common good for all.  Not the minority but the masses. 

She concluded that some say we have to protect the elderly.  Her answer was I am by not visiting my grandparents who are both sick.  I live my life but I love them enough not to let my choices affect their lives. 

Out of the mouths of babes.

@old_school posted:

I fully support TPM freedom to be a batshit crazy scare tactic attention getter, but I will never ask her or others permission or acknowledge the need to earn an unalienable right...

C'mon man.  That is over the line, and will get this thread shut down..... sigh

@RoadRunner, thanks for sharing.

@old_school posted:

could you please explain to me how Madison's personal opinion piece, which predates the constitution, you know the one that was set up and voted on by our forefathers...and then please expand on how you think they believed that freedom is something that needs to be earned and granted by a government...I will wait!!! the floor is yours.

I fully support TPM freedom to be a batshit crazy scare tactic attention getter, but I will never ask her or others permission or acknowledge the need to earn an unalienable right...

I'm not an expert (there, I admitted it), just an American who had US history in high school.  My recollection is that in 1787, when the Constitution was sent to the states for ratification, many people were fearful of a crazy, "I'm going to do my own thing" anarchic idea of liberty.  Madison, Hamilton, and Jay wrote the essays later known as the Federalist Papers to persuade people to vote to ratify the Constitution, because the form of government in the Constitution was the best way.  Madison's argument, especially in Federalist 10, was that the type of republican government set up in the Constitution was the best way to secure the common good, and in particular, to prevent one faction from tyrannizing over others.

This is why the Constitution begins, "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity..."  Are the reasons for the Constitution are given in order of importance?  Regardless, securing the blessings of Liberty is just one out of several reasons for having a Constitution.

Several people in my town, according to our newspaper, were arrested yesterday for drunk driving.  Are we treading on their liberty?  Or promoting the general welfare?

@anotherparent posted:

You know, old_school, I was so bothered by your comment that I spent most of last evening reading about the history of the founding fathers and the idea of liberty and responsibility.  So thank you, I don't think I had ever actually read the Federalist Papers.  You might be interested to take a look at this page about James Madison, from that neo-Marxist organization, The Heritage Foundation, which notes that "Madison's contributions to the American Republic are best summarized by his lifelong dedication to the principles of freedom and responsibility." (https://www.heritage.org/polit...her-the-constitution).

 

I will take the bait - why do you think The Heritage Foundation is of all things neo-Marxist?  They push policies that support free enterprise, individual freedoms and limited government.   Its the opposite of Marxism.  

* now as i re-read I think maybe you were being sarcastic 

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

I will take the bait - why do you think The Heritage Foundation is of all things neo-Marxist?  They push policies that support free enterprise, individual freedoms and limited government.   Its the opposite of Marxism.  

* now as i re-read I think maybe you were being sarcastic

Yes, sarcasm doesn't get conveyed well in a post.  I was being very sarcastic.

@old_school posted:

could you please explain to me how Madison's personal opinion piece, which predates the constitution, you know the one that was set up and voted on by our forefathers...and then please expand on how you think they believed that freedom is something that needs to be earned and granted by a government...I will wait!!! the floor is yours.

I fully support TPM freedom to be a batshit crazy scare tactic attention getter, but I will never ask her or others permission or acknowledge the need to earn an unalienable right...

Madison's personal opinion piece was written to defend the new constitution during the phase in which they were trying to get states to approve it. The Federalist papers are one of the key pieces that people use to try to understand what the founding fathers were thinking.

And please don't make this personal. It's been an interesting conversation and I support everyone's right to say what they think, but I don't support anyone's right to make personal attacks or call names. I hope others are similarly offended, and willing to sacrifice their freedom to make those comments for the community good of building understanding among a very diverse group of people with very different points of view.

@Pedaldad posted:

I think this article shows how difficult it is for people to separate their politics from their understanding of the virus.  

If you lean right, their are plenty of sources and legitimate scientific medical interpretations to support an agenda.   If you lean left, the same is true.  

This is why I have encouraged all to look at data for themselves, then come to their own conclusions.   The  author of this article has done a good job of showing how to do that, without just shouting cases are up, or deaths are down.   

This morning on NPR, they reported that the test positive rate in AZ is 27%.  In all likelihood, we will get to herd immunity before a vaccine.

 

This is what I’ve done. I looked at the numbers on a day to day basis. In Maine being shut down pissed me off. Now that I’m back in Massachusetts anything public I do (every day) is outside. But it would be anyway this time of year. At the least I’ll bike to Dunkin or Panera and hang out.if it was winter I would still go inside during non busy hours (1-3pm). Last night I had dinner on Hanover Street in the North End. It was the first time dinner was literally on Hanover Street. 

My politics coincide with a philosophy of don’t tell me what to do I’m a responsible adult. I also recognize there is some risk to anything.  John Marzano (Red Sox, Phillies) died falling down a flight of stairs to answer his door. Who considers stairs or answering the door in a safe neighborhood a way they will die in their 40’s? Do you walk down stairs thinking, “I could die here?”

I didn’t know Marzano died like that. One of my favorite memories as a kid was Clemens drilling someone after back to back HR. The batter charged with his bat, Marzano threw his glove at the guy. When he turned around Mazano punched him and tackled him. One of many brawls I was able to witness at Fenway. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

I didn’t know Marzano died like that. One of my favorite memories as a kid was Clemens drilling someone after back to back HR. The batter charged with his bat, Marzano threw his glove at the guy. When he turned around Mazano punched him and tackled him. One of many brawls I was able to witness at Fenway. 

He fell down the stairs, broke his neck and choked to death. 

He started the Marzano League. It was a mid week league for top talent to be seen by scouts. I think Marzano covered most of the fees. My son was never asked for money. His team was a combination of players from multiple travel teams. His teammates were from the Inter-Ac, Catholic and Suburban Leagues.

I would call Sunoco Field a well groomed bandbox. There wasn’t a lot of room around the plate. It was a par 3 to left and a par 5 to right. Sometimes they played at LaSalle U and West Chester.  It was great ball due to the talent. My son is 27 now. I don’t know what became of the league. 

I guess we’re all lucky our kids didn’t grow a third eye ...

https://hiddencityphila.org/20...-rough-a-risky-play/

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Great article with well presented facts and data. No chance some people buy the explanation about FL hospitalizations. 

Coincidentally, I talked to a hospital exec at the dentist today. He said they have put a ban on employees sharing ICU info with the media because they are distorting it for their stories. He commented that they always keep the ICU close to capacity and shift people around as needed. 

Bigger hospital systems usually have policy in place which does not allow employees to discuss anything with the press. They pay “special people “ to do that job, lol.

@adbono posted:

You get extra credit for properly spelling herd in the context that it was used. 

What about me?

@anotherparent posted:

I'm not an expert (there, I admitted it), just an American who had US history in high school.  My recollection is that in 1787, when the Constitution was sent to the states for ratification, many people were fearful of a crazy, "I'm going to do my own thing" anarchic idea of liberty.  Madison, Hamilton, and Jay wrote the essays later known as the Federalist Papers to persuade people to vote to ratify the Constitution, because the form of government in the Constitution was the best way.  Madison's argument, especially in Federalist 10, was that the type of republican government set up in the Constitution was the best way to secure the common good, and in particular, to prevent one faction from tyrannizing over others.

This is why the Constitution begins, "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity..."  Are the reasons for the Constitution are given in order of importance?  Regardless, securing the blessings of Liberty is just one out of several reasons for having a Constitution.

Several people in my town, according to our newspaper, were arrested yesterday for drunk driving.  Are we treading on their liberty?  Or promoting the general welfare?

Very good, but you still didn’t answer his question. 

@RoadRunner posted:

Bigger hospital systems usually have policy in place which does not allow employees to discuss anything with the press. They pay “special people “ to do that job, lol.

Apparently it was/is common practice to release that info upon request. This hospital has changed that. The local news put out an article that freaked out the communities around the hospital and there was no need to panic.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Apparently it was/is common practice to release that info upon request. This hospital has changed that. The local news put out an article that freaked out the communities around the hospital and there was no need to panic.

In the systems I have worked for, we were never permitted. 

@old_school posted:

I fully support TPM freedom to be a batshit crazy scare tactic attention getter, but I will never ask her or others permission or acknowledge the need to earn an unalienable right...

@old_school... That is TOTALLY uncalled for!  

@RJM posted:

This is what I’ve done. I looked at the numbers on a day to day basis. In Maine being shut down pissed me off. Now that I’m back in Massachusetts anything public I do (every day) is outside. But it would be anyway this time of year. At the least I’ll bike to Dunkin or Panera and hang out.if it was winter I would still go inside during non busy hours (1-3pm). Last night I had dinner on Hanover Street in the North End. It was the first time dinner was literally on Hanover Street. 

 

 

RJM I often wonder what would happen to someone from Massachusetts if they accidentally walked into a Starbucks instead of a Dunkin Donuts.  Would they turn to stone?

@RoadRunner posted:

In the systems I have worked for, we were never permitted. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Apparently it was/is common practice to release that info upon request. This hospital has changed that. The local news put out an article that freaked out the communities around the hospital and there was no need to panic.

As a journalist, i've never found a hospital that did that.

@PitchingFan posted:

I didn't want to get in this but I had this conversation with our teenagers last night about going back to school.  We actually talked about the common good.  One 14 year old girl said "but it depends on whose eyes you are looking through to have a definition of the common good.  Adults are thinking through adult eyes and also wanting to protect themselves.  Teenagers are wanting to live life like we always have and continue doing the things we have done.  We are not getting Corona in numbers enough to stop doing that.  Common good is for the masses not the minority."

I was amazed at the logic of a young lady.  She was dead on.  I'm sure she has heard this at home or somewhere but to articulate it so well is amazing.  It really does depend on what eyes you are looking through to see the common good for all.  Not the minority but the masses. 

She concluded that some say we have to protect the elderly.  Her answer was I am by not visiting my grandparents who are both sick.  I live my life but I love them enough not to let my choices affect their lives. 

Out of the mouths of babes.

When we open schools back up, the kids will inevitably bring the virus into the schools. Every single summer sports practice in my county has resulted in at least one positive test, including one at my school today.  Yay!

In my district there are ~2000 employees who are age 50+, and in my state the 50-59 age bracket has, so far, had ~2% fatality rate.

If only half of those employees get sick (seems like an underestimate if we're FTF with masks not required 30 to a room), that's 20+ deaths.

We can have joint graduations and funerals for the class of 2021 and their teachers.

Herd immunity without a vaccine comes at the cost of at least a million American lives with the path we're currently on, which is the ballpark of every American life lost in war in the history of the country.

Though, to be fair, we're probably too far down the path towards this approach to meaningfully change direction in the current political climate.

I mean, Florida's no doubt exceptionally accurate data suggests that they're seeing more deaths daily than the EU at this point (thanks, Brexit, or it would be slightly the other way).

I'm sure there's nothing else we could have done to deal with the situation better than we have.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

RJM I often wonder what would happen to someone from Massachusetts if they accidentally walked into a Starbucks instead of a Dunkin Donuts.  Would they turn to stone?

I’ve never cared for Starbucks. If I’m getting in my car to drive I’m fine with black rocket fuel from McDonalds. If I’m hanging out I’ll drink a candy coffee at Dunkin or Panera.

It depends where one lives (speaking in Brahmin Boston). If one lives on Beacon Hill there are two Starbucks. One who lives on Beacon Hill would be more likely to go to a Starbucks and shop at Whole Foods. OK, it’s martini time, Lovey.

There’s one Dunkin on our peninsula (pop. 3,500). From the base of the a peninsula I can think of six within three miles. On some divided road there’s one on each side.  Where I live in Maine there are four within three miles. In Downtown Boston it seems they’re on every other block.

@baseballmom posted:

@old_school... That is TOTALLY uncalled for!  

I agree. A brushback pitch every now and then is just part of the game but that was a beanball!  Better hope TPM doesn’t charge the mound. 

@jacjacatk posted:

When we open schools back up, the kids will inevitably bring the virus into the schools. Every single summer sports practice in my county has resulted in at least one positive test, including one at my school today.  Yay!

In my district there are ~2000 employees who are age 50+, and in my state the 50-59 age bracket has, so far, had ~2% fatality rate.

If only half of those employees get sick (seems like an underestimate if we're FTF with masks not required 30 to a room), that's 20+ deaths.

We can have joint graduations and funerals for the class of 2021 and their teachers.

Herd immunity without a vaccine comes at the cost of at least a million American lives with the path we're currently on, which is the ballpark of every American life lost in war in the history of the country.

Though, to be fair, we're probably too far down the path towards this approach to meaningfully change direction in the current political climate.

I mean, Florida's no doubt exceptionally accurate data suggests that they're seeing more deaths daily than the EU at this point (thanks, Brexit, or it would be slightly the other way).

I'm sure there's nothing else we could have done to deal with the situation better than we have.

Over. The. Top.

@Iowamom23 posted:

 

A quick Ggogle search shows several hospitals reporting their Covid ICU numbers and beds available. 

@baseballhs posted:

Over. The. Top.

It's pretty easy to get certified to sub here, just need a college degree (and that might not even be a limit these days).  Come sign up, we're going to need lots of subs.

Herd immunity without a vaccine comes at the cost of at least a million American lives with the path we're currently on, which is the ballpark of every American life lost in war in the history of the country.

talking about this...

@jacjacatk posted:

When we open schools back up, the kids will inevitably bring the virus into the schools. Every single summer sports practice in my county has resulted in at least one positive test, including one at my school today.  Yay!

In my district there are ~2000 employees who are age 50+, and in my state the 50-59 age bracket has, so far, had ~2% fatality rate.

If only half of those employees get sick (seems like an underestimate if we're FTF with masks not required 30 to a room), that's 20+ deaths.

We can have joint graduations and funerals for the class of 2021 and their teachers.

Herd immunity without a vaccine comes at the cost of at least a million American lives with the path we're currently on, which is the ballpark of every American life lost in war in the history of the country.

Though, to be fair, we're probably too far down the path towards this approach to meaningfully change direction in the current political climate.

I mean, Florida's no doubt exceptionally accurate data suggests that they're seeing more deaths daily than the EU at this point (thanks, Brexit, or it would be slightly the other way).

I'm sure there's nothing else we could have done to deal with the situation better than we have.

Have you read any school opening plans? I’ve seen 5 in FL and each of them required masks and some required masks and face shields. Also, class sizes have been reduced to ensure 6’ spacing between desks. Some districts are starting virtual due to their numbers and some are isolating virtual to just a few schools in highly infected communities. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Have you read any school opening plans? I’ve seen 5 in FL and each of them required masks and some required masks and face shields. Also, class sizes have been reduced to ensure 6’ spacing between desks. Some districts are starting virtual due to their numbers and some are isolating virtual to just a few schools in highly infected communities. 

Yes, masks are suggested, not required, here. Teachers close to retirement are bailing. Teams are actively doing summer practices, right up to getting positive tests. It's going to be a disaster. Fewer than 50% of people use masks in public spaces indoors.

Also, to the other post, herd immunity is around 70% infection rate. That's 230 million people. That would require a cfr of like 0.4% to stay under 1 million dead. You're not getting herd immunity without a vaccine without killing way more people than have already died.

I said I'd be surprised if we don't get to 6 figures dead back in March. Disappointed not to be wrong, but here we are.

On the plus side, we propped up the stock market to keep billionaires whole, and gave a bunch of forgivable loans to Washington insiders and religious groups. The ark experience got a couple million to pay their people while also fundraising millions to pay the same people. Doubt we'll ever get to see an audit of any of that.

I might get lucky and only lose about as much pay this year as the one stimulus check that got mailed out to some people. And I'm not currently among the millions of people about to get evicted. You think the riots so far have been bad, wait until things go full French revolution.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Have you read any school opening plans? I’ve seen 5 in FL and each of them required masks and some required masks and face shields. Also, class sizes have been reduced to ensure 6’ spacing between desks. Some districts are starting virtual due to their numbers and some are isolating virtual to just a few schools in highly infected communities. 

Our school opening plan doesn't require masks or face shields. Not sure how class sizes will be handled as there don't seem to be any rules. Our school is still considering whether to do all live, all online or blended.

Iowa's top ranked HS baseball team ended their season Tuesday after a positive test on their softball team (apparently the two teams have a lot of interaction), both teams are done for the season.

Our HS softball team also had a positive test, but will be able to return to play for the postseason — conveniently they were scheduled to play the team above, so now they have a bye in the first round, otherwise they would have been done too.