Seems like everywhere I go someone is bringing up the percentage of playing at the next level. Youth ball to High School, high school to college or pro, college to pro, minor league to major league. 1%, 2%.10%, etc.
Of course the odds are always greatly against making it to the next level. What's new, do people think it is supposed to be easy. If the odds are bad should a young person give up or lower their goals?
As far as having goals, what about those who want to be a MLB GM? There's only 30 of them. How about CEO of a fortune 500 company? How about the odds of becoming a multi-millionaire? Heck you want great odds? Look into the fast food industry!
Bottom line...at any given time there are 750 players in the Major Leagues. 750 people will fill those positions with another 750 or more knocking on the door. There are thousands of spots on college teams. Surely everyone knows there are not enough spots open at the next level for every kid that plays high school baseball. And should we subtract those that have no desire to play at the next level, that would lower he odds considerably.
Some that talk about the odds, maybe rightfully so, claim it is all about being realistic. Well, I'm sure glad that many don't want to be realistic or we wouldn't have a next level. I look at the odds like this... I'm only interested in what my odds are, don't care what everyone else's odds are! Actually why even care what the odds are? And if you fail to reach the top, is that the end? Shoot for the moon or you won't get there.
Not sure what others think about this... I believe the odds are not so bad if you have talent. The odds are nearly impossible if you lack talent. In other words, the odds are different from one individual to another.
Anyone else see it that way?