Transfer Portal

@FriarFred posted:

Here is a local story about a couple kids that have been impacted by the cancellation of the season, reduced MLB draft and another year of eligibility.  Real world example of what has been discussed here.  https://www.dallasnews.com/hig...g-extra-eligibility/

 

No surprise that both 4 year schools mentioned in the article (New Mexico & Houston) have been 2 of the most notorious over-recruiters in this region in the past few years. However in this case both schools did these 2 kids a favor by giving them early notice. On the other hand, while both are going to established and proven JuCo programs, those two schools are also known for cattle calls in the fall. There were over 60 players on the 2019 fall roster at Cisco. When D1 recruits bounce down to JuCo that usually has a negative impact on a kid that was recruited to that Juco. Four year schools  that over-recruit usually do that habitually every year. Juco programs that rely on D1 bounce downs also usually have a history of doing that. Just part of the homework that players & parents need to be doing in order to know what they are really getting into. If more people would view the recruiting and commitment process as RISK MANAGEMENT there would be more good decisions being made. 

@ABSORBER posted:

Typical media: "Division I signees in baseball and other spring sports are being told their scholarship can’t be honored."

I don't think this is possible. Sure, they told players there would be no playing time and that will cause them to find a new home but they can't pull money after a NLI's been signed.

Hogeboom left due to being told no playing time. And he gave up 50%? The article says New Mexico took Hill's scholarship away; there HAS to be more to the story as I don't think this is possible. Either he had no scholarship (as in the case of the softball player mentioned in the article) or he left due to the college suggesting he leave as in Hogeboom's case.

Make me wonder if the players should have just showed up on campus and called the coach's bluff. Eat that money. Perhaps the coach would be pissed and never give you an opportunity but at least you ate up 1/2 of a scholarship he wanted to use elsewhere. You can always leave after the fall and head to JUCO if calling his bluff didn't work. It really depends on how confident you are in your own ability.

There is so much misinformation in this post I don’t even know where to begin. But here are some responses:

Para 2: Oh, it’s possible and it happens all the time. Outside of P5 schools NLIs are one year agreements. If the school wants out they will find a way - legally or not. 

Para 3: see comments above about Para 2

Para 4: Show up and call the coach’s bluff? Are you kidding me?!? Who in their right might is going to report as an incoming freshman to a school that has already informed you that you aren’t wanted. And what parent in their right mind what support that decision?!? Furthermore, don’t be naive enough to think that moving from 4 yr to JuCo after the fall semester is going to be easy in terms of finding the right opportunity. Rosters are going to be overcrowded all over the place. Confidence in your own ability has very little to do with it. It’s more about a realistic assessment of where you can actually play. The level of competition is different in the Ivy League than it is at Mountain West & American Athletic Conference. MW & AAC have a lot more really good players and it’s tougher to make a roster (and get on the field) from a baseball talent perspective. It’s tougher for a good player to bet admitted to an Ivy League school based on academic standards. 

I know a player who was on Scholarship at a perennial P5 powerhouse.  He was told in the late fall that he should find someplace else. Coaches didn't want him - talented, but poor attitude and work ethic.  Sure, he could have stayed based on P5s guarantee for 4 years, but the conversation isn't usually that hard.

"Look, we don't see you fitting into our plans.  You need a fresh start somewhere else.  You can stay here and chew up some scholarship money, burn through your parents income, and get C's, but you won't dress out for games or travel, is that really best for you, or is it best to move forward."

The same thing happens at "mid majors" all the time.  The 900  (and counting) D1 players in the portal are testament to that.

I told my son before he went to play college ball and before he signed his NLI, as competitive and unfair as this process sometimes seems to you, remember the coaches earn their living this way. Things may not go your way: it is not personal, it is business.

@adbono posted:

There is so much misinformation in this post I don’t even know where to begin. But here are some responses:

Para 2: Oh, it’s possible and it happens all the time. Outside of P5 schools NLIs are one year agreements. If the school wants out they will find a way - legally or not. 

Para 3: see comments above about Para 2

Para 4: Show up and call the coach’s bluff? Are you kidding me?!? Who in their right might is going to report as an incoming freshman to a school that has already informed you that you aren’t wanted. And what parent in their right mind what support that decision?!? Furthermore, don’t be naive enough to think that moving from 4 yr to JuCo after the fall semester is going to be easy in terms of finding the right opportunity. Rosters are going to be overcrowded all over the place. Confidence in your own ability has very little to do with it. It’s more about a realistic assessment of where you can actually play. The level of competition is different in the Ivy League than it is at Mountain West & American Athletic Conference. MW & AAC have a lot more really good players and it’s tougher to make a roster (and get on the field) from a baseball talent perspective. It’s tougher for a good player to bet admitted to an Ivy League school based on academic standards. 

spot on.  simple supply and demand.

It will be very interesting to see the actual roster turnover in 2021.

Outgoing

- Overall vs Freshman

- Transfer out

- Graduated

- MLB Signed

Incoming

-Overall

- Transfer in

I know that that is how it works, because I've read it here.  Obviously a player couldn't continue under those circumstances.  But, that newspaper article implied that the players were told "their scholarship money had to be used for returning students."  That simply was not true.  If newspaper articles like this were more honest about what really goes on, said "the university was required to honor the NLI scholarship, so they encouraged the player to voluntarily withdraw," perhaps it wouldn't happen so much.

@adbono posted:

There is so much misinformation in this post I don’t even know where to begin. But here are some responses:

Para 2: Oh, it’s possible and it happens all the time. Outside of P5 schools NLIs are one year agreements. If the school wants out they will find a way - legally or not. 

Para 3: see comments above about Para 2

Para 4: Show up and call the coach’s bluff? Are you kidding me?!? Who in their right might is going to report as an incoming freshman to a school that has already informed you that you aren’t wanted. And what parent in their right mind what support that decision?!? Furthermore, don’t be naive enough to think that moving from 4 yr to JuCo after the fall semester is going to be easy in terms of finding the right opportunity. Rosters are going to be overcrowded all over the place. Confidence in your own ability has very little to do with it. It’s more about a realistic assessment of where you can actually play. The level of competition is different in the Ivy League than it is at Mountain West & American Athletic Conference. MW & AAC have a lot more really good players and it’s tougher to make a roster (and get on the field) from a baseball talent perspective. It’s tougher for a good player to bet admitted to an Ivy League school based on academic standards. 

Misinformation? Any I presume you are an expert? Do you even know what an NLI is? Have YOU ever signed one? They exist for a reason.

Sure, be that scared kid and accept a scholarship to get an education at 50% off and bail just to go play baseball at a community college. Because that's what JUCO is, COMMUNITY COLLEGE. Nothing wrong with that if money is tight; it's a great way to save. So I suppose if your goal is to attend any school just to play baseball a few more years, heck, maybe even get drafted after two years of community college and one year at a 4-year school just to wash up after two years, have at it!

And if you don't think you are good enough to make a JUCO roster after transferring after the fall? Then you may as well stay at the school where you signed your NLI. Because baseball is NOT in your future. No scholarship after year one? That's something you should have factored into your decision when you accepted the offer. Go to school for an education, not baseball. Use baseball to get your education. If baseball works out in the end, good for you. Chances are it doesn't.

@ABSORBER posted:

Misinformation? Any I presume you are an expert? Do you even know what an NLI is? Have YOU ever signed one? They exist for a reason.

Sure, be that scared kid and accept a scholarship to get an education at 50% off and bail just to go play baseball at a community college. Because that's what JUCO is, COMMUNITY COLLEGE. Nothing wrong with that if money is tight; it's a great way to save. So I suppose if your goal is to attend any school just to play baseball a few more years, heck, maybe even get drafted after two years of community college and one year at a 4-year school just to wash up after two years, have at it!

And if you don't think you are good enough to make a JUCO roster after transferring after the fall? Then you may as well stay at the school where you signed your NLI. Because baseball is NOT in your future. No scholarship after year one? That's something you should have factored into your decision when you accepted the offer. Go to school for an education, not baseball. Use baseball to get your education. If baseball works out in the end, good for you. Chances are it doesn't.

I’m not going to give you my resume. But my bio should give you a clue that I have been thru all of this as a player, parent, coach, and advisor. So that’s multiple occasions from all perspectives.  I don’t know that many people are experts but I’m certainly one of the more experienced people on this board. One thing that you do have right is that you go to school for an education and baseball is a bonus. 

@anotherparent posted:

I know that that is how it works, because I've read it here.  Obviously a player couldn't continue under those circumstances.  But, that newspaper article implied that the players were told "their scholarship money had to be used for returning students."  That simply was not true.  If newspaper articles like this were more honest about what really goes on, said "the university was required to honor the NLI scholarship, so they encouraged the player to voluntarily withdraw," perhaps it wouldn't happen so much.

The author of that article, Greg Riddle, is not one of the better sports writers in DFW. So not surprising that he may have taken what was said to him at face value. It also wouldn’t surprise me one bit if either of the schools told those kids exactly what was written. 

@adbono posted:

I’m not going to give you my resume. But my bio should give you a clue that I have been thru all of this as a player, parent, coach, and advisor. So that’s multiple occasions from all perspectives.  I don’t know that many people are experts but I’m certainly one of the more experienced people on this board. One thing that you do have right is that you go to school for an education and baseball is a bonus. 

My point is YOU are the one who is spreading misinformation. You are not the only person on this site that does this. I can't stand people who pretend they know things and really don't. 

So when I say a student-athlete who has signed an NLI at 50% scholarship and decides to show up on campus he WILL receive his scholarship for one year. That's certainly not misinformation.

@ABSORBER posted:

My point is YOU are the one who is spreading misinformation. You are not the only person on this site that does this. I can't stand people who pretend they know things and really don't. 

So when I say a student-athlete who has signed an NLI at 50% scholarship and decides to show up on campus he WILL receive his scholarship for one year. That's certainly not misinformation.

I probably should have not used the word misinformation. In hindsight, I should have said you are offering bad advice. 

@adbono posted:

I probably should have not used the word misinformation. In hindsight, I should have said you are offering bad advice. 

I wasn't providing anyone with advice; I was merely suggesting a scenario where kids like this can stick it to college coaches by showing up if that's the school they really wanted to attend. I doubt UH fits the bill.

@ABSORBER posted:

I wasn't providing anyone with advice; I was merely suggesting a scenario where kids like this can stick it to college coaches by showing up if that's the school they really wanted to attend. I doubt UH fits the bill.

The scenario you suggested is only a good idea if you are done playing baseball. 

None of this matters. Disappearing scholarships, returning and transferring players, ability to compete for a roster spot,.....none of it matters. So quit arguing over it and just use the portal to figure out which colleges should be avoided at all costs. That's the only real benefit to the data knowledge.

And even that data knowledge is useless.  900 on the portal will swell by late summer. There is not enough spots anywhere because its most all over recruited and over promised to begin with. The over recruiting and buddy ball atmosphere is all coming to a head. It was coming anyway shortly, the current virus just accelerated the timeframe forward a few years.

You aren't guaranteed to play much at a Juco without connections no matter the talent you have.  D1 dropdowns, pro prospects, local favorited and connected, etc.

D2 is a roster cesspool. Forget that. You're going to have 24 and 25 year old college year six seniors and juco transfers clogging up all playing time for everyone (40+ roster spots deep style clogged up) in the program.

D3 may be possible for a top notch academic player to get in 30 games a season. IF D3 doesn't cancel the program and make it a club team.

D1 is going to be littered with disgruntled redshirt freshmen and sophs and prior redshirts who thought they had served their time.  Only to find out 6 seniors starters return and are handed the position again. 

Want to guarantee you are going to see significant field time as a college baseball player? Better get out the checkbook and donate some big $, better call in some connected favors, better be connected to a mover and shaker, better be a legacy son of a major leaguer, etc.

This isn't football or basketball where you can physically earn your spot by banging your competition in the ground one on one.  This is subjective baseball where not much individual physical competition matters.

It really shouldn't be this way. And I hate it for the current players, incoming players, and even the returning seniors. But what we all will witness and our favorite player will experience in the coming months is the result of the bullsh*t baseball system that money has built while the academies and showcases and travel ball and college recruiters have sold the soul of the game itself out over the last 6 years.

@Showball$ posted:

None of this matters. Disappearing scholarships, returning and transferring players, ability to compete for a roster spot,.....none of it matters. So quit arguing over it and just use the portal to figure out which colleges should be avoided at all costs. That's the only real benefit to the data knowledge.

And even that data knowledge is useless.  900 on the portal will swell by late summer. There is not enough spots anywhere because its most all over recruited and over promised to begin with. The over recruiting and buddy ball atmosphere is all coming to a head. It was coming anyway shortly, the current virus just accelerated the timeframe forward a few years.

You aren't guaranteed to play much at a Juco without connections no matter the talent you have.  D1 dropdowns, pro prospects, local favorited and connected, etc.

D2 is a roster cesspool. Forget that. You're going to have 24 and 25 year old college year six seniors and juco transfers clogging up all playing time for everyone (40+ roster spots deep style clogged up) in the program.

D3 may be possible for a top notch academic player to get in 30 games a season. IF D3 doesn't cancel the program and make it a club team.

D1 is going to be littered with disgruntled redshirt freshmen and sophs and prior redshirts who thought they had served their time.  Only to find out 6 seniors starters return and are handed the position again. 

Want to guarantee you are going to see significant field time as a college baseball player? Better get out the checkbook and donate some big $, better call in some connected favors, better be connected to a mover and shaker, better be a legacy son of a major leaguer, etc.

This isn't football or basketball where you can physically earn your spot by banging your competition in the ground one on one.  This is subjective baseball where not much individual physical competition matters.

It really shouldn't be this way. And I hate it for the current players, incoming players, and even the returning seniors. But what we all will witness and our favorite player will experience in the coming months is the result of the bullsh*t baseball system that money has built while the academies and showcases and travel ball and college recruiters have sold the soul of the game itself out over the last 6 years.

 

 

 

 

 

Tell us how you really feel. 

IMHO, you've summed it up pretty nicely. 

I'm going to have to save this comment. 

I think I can turn this into 1 or 2 analytics.

I just need to think of a name for this report.

Good stuff.

That article was a mess and because it was so inaccurate I can't consider it entirely truthful. A few thoughts...

The first is that one of the players had a 63% scholarship and only one other D1 offer. For the price of him they can get nearly 3 guys, but what's more alarming is that there was only one other offer. Had to be a reason for this. 

The second is that returning seniors don't count against the 11.7. So they didn't lose their scholarships, they were just less likely to play and chose to move on which was probably the wise move. But seniors coming back didn't cause this. You can ride the bench for a year as a freshman, it happens, especially now given the circumstances. 

The third is that going to the media is never a good idea. I don't know what these kids wanted to get out of this, especially since they are both headed to Jucos. It's not like they needed the publicity to get new offers. But going to the media with a tough story is going to do nothing for either of those kids. 

As ABSORBER mentioned earlier you can try to call the coaches bluff. They do have to honor the scholarship and they will find somebody else to cut if you let them know that moving on is not an option. If you say no, they still have a scholarship issue. 

I've seen it happen with a player at a P5 school, he was on a big scholarship and he was advised to transfer for playing time after a shaky freshman year. He told the coach thank you, but the school is too cheap for me to pass up, I'll stay and try to improve. Another player was cut two days later, he stayed, ended up being a weekend starter and drafted. If it is truly a scholarship issue, call the bluff and force their hand. If it is a talent issue, it would be wise to move on assuming there were other opportunities. If either of the kids mentioned in the article had said thanks I'll bet on myself, there would have been no article to write until at least next year. 

Stay and call the coaches bluff will result in career suicide 9 times more often than it ever works out. How many of you guys suggesting this ever played high level D1 baseball? You don’t think that decision won’t follow a player to his next stop? You don’t think coaches talk? If you play that card you better be prepared for what you get. 

You guys are totally underestimating how much politics play into roster and playing time decisions. 

@adbono posted:

Stay and call the coaches bluff will result in career suicide 9 times more often than it ever works out. How many of you guys suggesting this ever played high level D1 baseball? You don’t think that decision won’t follow a player to his next stop? You don’t think coaches talk? If you play that card you better be prepared for what you get. 

I didn't have to play high level D1 baseball to know that if you sign a legally binding contract with a university, they're required to honor it. 

Like I said, it really has to be a scholarship cap space issue and not a talent issue. I don't want to comment on the talent level of the high schoolers mentioned in the article, but given their scholarships are renewed annually I likely would have moved on as well. That being said if they said we're staying - there isn't anything a coach could do about it without risking his job. 

If it is a scholarship cap issue you will remain on the team. If it is a talent issue you better be prepared to be a regular student/charting pitches for the foreseeable future. I understand the politics of baseball and it's not a move I would recommend in 95% of cases. But I know plenty of kids who, if were cut, would likely become a regular student on baseball money,  join a frat, and call it a day. It is unfolding with a former teammate as we speak. 

@PABaseball posted:

I didn't have to play high level D1 baseball to know that if you sign a legally binding contract with a university, they're required to honor it. 

Like I said, it really has to be a scholarship cap space issue and not a talent issue. I don't want to comment on the talent level of the high schoolers mentioned in the article, but given their scholarships are renewed annually I likely would have moved on as well. That being said if they said we're staying - there isn't anything a coach could do about it without risking his job. 

If it is a scholarship cap issue you will remain on the team. If it is a talent issue you better be prepared to be a regular student/charting pitches for the foreseeable future. I understand the politics of baseball and it's not a move I would recommend in 95% of cases. But I know plenty of kids who, if were cut, would likely become a regular student on baseball money,  join a frat, and call it a day. It is unfolding with a former teammate as we speak. 

Just like in any business arrangement, if the party in control doesn’t want to do business with the other party it doesn’t take very long for the wording in the contract not to matter. Like I said, if you play that card you better be prepared for your playing days to be over. Especially now, as coaches are going to have more options at every position than they ever have. It will be next man up, you best believe that. 

That move is not a one size fits all, that move takes some you know what. If you're going to pull that move you better be prepared to eat your words and chart pitches like a sabermetrics guru for the rest of your time at said school. 

@PABaseball posted:

That move is not a one size fits all, that move takes some you know what. If you're going to pull that move you better be prepared to eat your words and chart pitches like a sabermetrics guru for the rest of your time at said school. 

That’s my point exactly because that’s what will happen 

@FriarFred posted:

Here is a local story about a couple kids that have been impacted by the cancellation of the season, reduced MLB draft and another year of eligibility.  Real world example of what has been discussed here.  https://www.dallasnews.com/hig...g-extra-eligibility/

 

What I suspect is that neither of the players mentioned in this article were at the top of the 2020 recruiting class for the schools that recruited them. Or seniors were returning and there was no need at their positions. Or both. Hogeboom played in a good 4A program and is the son of a former NFL QB. He was decently ranked but not top 10 in Texas. As a freshman UofH was probably a reach for him. Hill played in a travel ball org that is designed to promote inner city and underprivileged kids. Hill would meet that criteria. I coached in that org for years and I know firsthand that org overpromotes and oversells it’s players. As a freshman New Mexico was a reach for Hill also. It appears that UH & UNM looked at their rosters and determined that these kids couldn’t help them. They have seniors coming back at their positions AND they want to give $ to those returning seniors. It doesn’t matter that the seniors don’t count against the 11.7 scholarships. The money has to come from somewhere. So they took it from some incoming freshmen. Very few schools have alumni pony up to pay for returning seniors like TCU did. I suspect the kids were told that they were being released from their NLI and were free to pursue other options. This is exactly what I said was going to happen weeks ago and there will be more of it.  If you want to play baseball a signed NLI isn’t going to give you an opportunity to play if the school you signed with doesn’t want you anymore. Incoming 2020 freshmen and 2020 JuCo transfers are very vulnerable. I’m saying it’s right but I’m saying it’s reality. 

NOT saying it’s right

Great discussion going on here.   Everybody has excellent points and those points are coming from different perspectives.  College baseball has become an absolute roster and scholarship train wreck.   I really feel bad for those current players caught up in this rip tide and genuinely qualified recruits trying to find a place to play.  

There are very few safe havens with for the college baseball recruit these days.   I began wondering what would my son have done differently (10 years ago) given this situation.   There is no doubt in my mind that we would have de-emphasized D1-MidMajors with scholarship offers (majority of his offers) and focused much earlier on the genuine HA schools with engineering, and rolled the dice on need based financial aid.   We found the need based financial aid at some HA schools was equal to 25-50% of what the D1-MidMajors were offering in baseball scholarships.   Baseball + SAT scores was his leverage to the HA schools, so that had to be factored into our approach.

Just spit-balling here.  There definitely would have been an effect on his recruitment that would have been out of our direct control.  As I see it there were only a couple options.   Leverage the assets you have or not play college baseball.

Again, I wish those caught up in this the best of luck.   If you are a high schooler looking to play college baseball you have to understand all of these market dynamics clearly outlined in this thread or you are screwed.

As always, JMO.   Good luck! 

The term "on the team" is only on paper.  They have to honor your scholarship and have to count you in their 35 but they do not have to let you use their facilities or do anything to get better.  Coaches are pretty egotistical, which is partly what makes them successful.  There are more than enough that would tell a player who said no thank you I'm staying "good luck."  You can stay but you can't use our facilities or have anything to do with the team.  And at the right school, you better be a great student because they can make your life tough in the classroom at a baseball school.  They are only required to honor your scholarship and count you.  Nothing more.  I can't imagine what that would be like. 

I have seen it once and it ended a kid's career.  His dad thought he could force a college coach to play his kid and the kid was shunned for an entire year.   You don't get better not doing anything.  The local hitting facilities would not let him use their facility because the college coach put pressure on them.  When he got ready to transfer, his name was mud in the baseball community.  The dad has always gotten his way in life by being a bully and the coach was more of a deterrent than the dad thought.  The bad part was the kid was the pawn and he ultimately lost everything.

The thing is, 2021s that have committed have a choice (although their recruiting window has become a nightmare, I still see kids committing daily).  They will see the numbers at their position and can compare themselves to the competition. 2020s really don’t have options. They’ve signed. Where would they go if a coach hasn’t asked them to go?  I know my son is walking into a very tough situation. Every single pitcher in his recruiting class throws 90+.  Several throw 95.  There are multiple top 100 kids and All Americans.  I would guess all of them had multiple offers from great schools.  They have probably always been the top player on their team but they are walking into a full roster.  These aren’t the kind of kids who think they won’t make it.  They all probably have an equal shot going in, but there is a reality of limited roster spots.  All you can really do in my mind is give it 100%, so there are no regrets and see how it plays out.  There are for sure kids who will transfer at semester, kids will get redshirted, but I don’t think most competitors would ever have peace knowing they didn’t try.  My only real goal for my son is that he can have peace about his decisions because he did all he could.

@PitchingFan posted:

The term "on the team" is only on paper.  They have to honor your scholarship and have to count you in their 35 but they do not have to let you use their facilities or do anything to get better.  Coaches are pretty egotistical, which is partly what makes them successful.  There are more than enough that would tell a player who said no thank you I'm staying "good luck."  You can stay but you can't use our facilities or have anything to do with the team.  And at the right school, you better be a great student because they can make your life tough in the classroom at a baseball school.  They are only required to honor your scholarship and count you.  Nothing more.  I can't imagine what that would be like. 

I have seen it once and it ended a kid's career.  His dad thought he could force a college coach to play his kid and the kid was shunned for an entire year.   You don't get better not doing anything.  The local hitting facilities would not let him use their facility because the college coach put pressure on them.  When he got ready to transfer, his name was mud in the baseball community.  The dad has always gotten his way in life by being a bully and the coach was more of a deterrent than the dad thought.  The bad part was the kid was the pawn and he ultimately lost everything.

You have perfectly described the way the scenario would play out if a kid were to show up and force a coaches hand after being told he wasn’t wanted. This is exactly what I was alluding to yesterday. I saw this happen to a teammate when I was a player. When he didn’t leave and forfeit his scholarship after the coaches “suggested” he do so, his life was made miserable. 

@baseballhs posted:

The thing is, 2021s that have committed have a choice (although their recruiting window has become a nightmare, I still see kids committing daily).  They will see the numbers at their position and can compare themselves to the competition. 2020s really don’t have options. They’ve signed. Where would they go if a coach hasn’t asked them to go?  I know my son is walking into a very tough situation. Every single pitcher in his recruiting class throws 90+.  Several throw 95.  There are multiple top 100 kids and All Americans.  I would guess all of them had multiple offers from great schools.  They have probably always been the top player on their team but they are walking into a full roster.  These aren’t the kind of kids who think they won’t make it.  They all probably have an equal shot going in, but there is a reality of limited roster spots.  All you can really do in my mind is give it 100%, so there are no regrets and see how it plays out.  There are for sure kids who will transfer at semester, kids will get redshirted, but I don’t think most competitors would ever have peace knowing they didn’t try.  My only real goal for my son is that he can have peace about his decisions because he did all he could.

I think there will be a lot of 2020's that are going into programs of all sizes that think they can compete with anyone.  But that is not true.  So many of my son's 2019 and 2020 friends are leaving where they are or were going because they see the writing on the wall.  A couple of them at P5's did not get to play much this year or were redshirted and knew it will be no better and maybe tougher next year.  They have begun talking to juco teams about spots.  The sad part is the top juco teams are full also so they are having to go down a level of juco.  The same way D1 baseball is not even neither is Juco D1.  I've thought a lot about what we would have done if this was last year.  I think my advice to my son would have been to talk to some of the juco coaches that recruited you.  I don't think unless I was the stud that I would be wanting to walk into an SEC school this fall unless I was willing to redshirt a year.  I don't see very few if any freshmen playing at most SEC schools next spring.  You have all these guys coming back and you have all the Corona freshmen who have a year and games under their belt. 

@FriarFred posted:

Here is a post I posted awhile back (3/27/20) when this started.  Looking back this would have been better it appears with all that is going on...  Cant put the Genie back in the bottle...

FFriarFred5,000+ posts

Question:  So would the D1 council actually be doing a prudent thing by not giving anyone the year back?  It would still screw the kids that didnt get to compete a full year, but perhaps alleviates some of the "cluster" for the next 4 to 5 years.  It would allow most schools to function close to normal other than the juniors maybe not being drafted as originally projected.  Of course the JUCO kids that were going to be drafted now may end up going to the D1 school they signed with which impacts could be big.  It appears one of the biggest contributing factor is actually MLB only doing 5 (or even 10) rounds that will have major impact on the college game , maybe even more so that whatever the D1 council decides.  Unfortunately, someone is going to get screwed from spring sport cancellations.  The only question is how many and how long will this effect last?

 

Andy, has that been in a sealed envelope in a mayonnaise jar on Funk & Wagner’s front porch since last Thursday? Only you the Great Karnac can divine the contents of the envelope and can answer the question before it is opened?!? Yessss!!!

@PitchingFan posted:

  I don't think unless I was the stud that I would be wanting to walk into an SEC school this fall unless I was willing to redshirt a year.  

@baseballhs posted:

Problem is that everyone is a stud...At the very least, there are too many studs.

Everyone thinks they are a stud. The truth is that there is a big difference between a really good player and a stud. Studs are exceptional in every way and they are not very common. Studs have draft talent. There are lots of really good players that don’t. 

I don't think that is the case for everyone but most.  When my son was 15 at WWBA, he watched two kids throw 96 and turned and looked at me and said that is crazy.  I wish my friends could see this and know I might be the best in our town but definitely not the best in the US or close to it.  I think the cream of the crop, many of the top 250, know where they stand.  But I also think there are a lot of parents out there that are dillusional and don't realize where their kid actually is and then convince their kid he is one of the best.  When you truly see the studs, you know it.  If you take off the rose colored glasses.  I knew where all of my kids were and maybe was too honest with them.  Mine knows next year he will have to work even harder even though his coaches have confirmed with him by some actions where he stands with them.  But he knows that there are guys coming in and guys coming back.  I always told mine.  Before you get to compete against the guys in the other dugout, you have to beat out the guys in your dugout. 

Before you get to protect the T, you have be able to wear the T (Tennessee).

I've seen the studs, played with or against a lot of them.  I've also read about players all the time.  I know what it looks like.  Look at Arkansas for example.  They have 9 2020s in the top 150. 4 in the top 50 and one went early in December and played in the Spring.  There are some recruiting classes that are loaded with studs that are walking into already pretty stacked rosters.  Vanderbilt has 8 in the top 100, walking into an already stacked roster.  There CAN be too many studs in one place.  The coach is absolutely not going to tell those kids not to come, but regardless there are roster limitations and at most places a kid ranked 200 would stand a good chance, this year is going to be odd.

@baseballhs posted:

I've seen the studs, played with or against a lot of them.  I've also read about players all the time.  I know what it looks like.  Look at Arkansas for example.  They have 9 2020s in the top 150. 4 in the top 50 and one went early in December and played in the Spring.  There are some recruiting classes that are loaded with studs that are walking into already pretty stacked rosters.  Vanderbilt has 8 in the top 100, walking into an already stacked roster.  There CAN be too many studs in one place.  The coach is absolutely not going to tell those kids not to come, but regardless there are roster limitations and at most places a kid ranked 200 would stand a good chance, this year is going to be odd.

Every kid that is recruited out of HS thinks he is a stud and so do his parents. When they get to college is when they find out if they really are. Play on the college field is what determines that. Rankings don’t mean a thing once you get to college. There are a lot of highly ranked kids coming out of HS that don’t crack a college lineup until their Jr year. Maybe we have different definitions of what a stud is. In my book there is no such thing as a college team that is completely comprised of studs. There are always role players and they are important too. 

The very top level studs are going to be drafted.  The ones that could have gone 5-20 round, if they would have agreed to the money, are the ones that are stacked up on several teams. Especially when the Junior SS (insert any position) that was going to go in the draft won't now because there are only 5 rounds. 

@adbono posted:

Everyone thinks they are a stud. The truth is that there is a big difference between a really good player and a stud. Studs are exceptional in every way and they are not very common. Studs have draft talent. There are lots of really good players that don’t. 

I agree. There are studs, and then there are studs, you know what I mean?

Heard that a P5 with a lot of studs probably has to drop quite a few. Draft issues.  Thats what happens when you recruit too many studs!

@adbono posted:

Everyone thinks they are a stud. The truth is that there is a big difference between a really good player and a stud. Studs are exceptional in every way and they are not very common. Studs have draft talent. There are lots of really good players that don’t. 

Sometimes even the pros can't tell the difference. My 2017 played with 2 future top of the first round draft choices.  Both were really good players.  Both definitely proved themselves to be studs in college.  Neither was drafted out of HS.  I think one of them didn't even have any home visits.

Talked to a current player at the JUCO my son will attend and he said only four Sophomore players are moving on as of now.  That really surprised me.  Is that how it is going to be at most JUCO's?    

I know NAIA is a bit of a different animal but I ran across a Christian NAIA  in Oklahoma (decent program) where all nine seniors have elected to return.  They rely heavily on JC transfers and players from the Dominican and other Latin American players.

@d-mac posted:

Talked to a current player at the JUCO my son will attend and he said only four Sophomore players are moving on as of now.  That really surprised me.  Is that how it is going to be at most JUCO's?    

It is hard to quantify most.  This is one of those things that is going to vary greatly by school.  There are so many factors that go into this.  Some 4-year schools are freeing up the scholarship money necessary to bring in their signed juco guys and  some are telling them stay put and we will bring you in next year (unless they find someone else they prefer).  Some schools are still having discussions with current unsigned juco sophs about whether they may have a roster spot / scholarship money open up in the next few weeks although I don't believe there is a lot of this happening.  Some jucos will bring in more players this fall than they have in the past and let them fight it out.  Others will bring in the same number but may have upgraded the typical talent level due to more players being available.  I believe jucos are also able to keep last years sophs on scholarship in addition to the normal limit but this also depends on available funding by school.  Not all schools can afford to do that.